 Okay, welcome to this week's weekly charting analysis webinar with myself Jasper Lawlett. We have the risk warning on the screen. I'll zoom through that and we'll get on with discussing some of the key events and chart patterns for this week. So the theme for European stock markets is the same as ever. And that's the prospects for quantitative easing. I say for stock markets but also for the euro and conversely the US dollar and the British pound following suit. So the kind of general thing we're getting today is some kind of dollar strength. We had seen a bit of a fallback in the dollar on Friday but that seems to be undoing itself at the moment. So for example here is the dollar yen, pull that up on the screen. See this is the move that we're seeing so far, dollar yen, over 100, near 100 pips. So that's in the kind of greatest scheme of things here. We can see that we're kind of building into what potentially could end up being a top formation at the very least, a consolidation. We've had sort of a run at 122, 120 is obviously the big round number involved. We've had three attempts here to get through 12080. Failed on the third one, came down to retesting this kind of breakthrough area here on the daily chart where this downward momentum turned positive at this green line here. That's where we found support. Found support here again today or at least at the end of Friday. We've got this RSI rising trend line here which it did sort of look like it was going to break but based on today's action it's holding on for the moment. So generally fairly sort of sideways action but a bit of kind of for today at least and dollar positivity and some of that just comes through from again more like negativity towards the euro based on this report that was sort of unnamed source that we could be looking at BCB planning, quantitative easing and that would imply announcing it on the January 22nd meeting. This is the low we're putting at the moment. We're well sub 120 at the moment and we're really eyeing up those 2010 lows. If we scale it out here we can see the context of where we are. So here's the low from 2010 and as you can see that was sort of what was that 118 and change. 118.45 currently we're clearing 100 odd pips below that. So we're in multi year downtrend type territory but this is the figure I was referencing is this 2005 level down here and that we can see a bit closer on this 116.40. And that could put a bit of a flaw on things but it might come down to not even whether the ECB do QE. It might just come down to the size of it because what saw a bit of disappointment in markets last week was the sort of internal reports that came out that some of the people in the ECB had been looking at a program of 500 billion euros. The ECB have a balance sheet target of a trillion euros thereabouts. They're sort of 2012 levels, early 2012 levels. So that would only take us halfway and looking at the performance of the other asset purchase programs at the moment, namely the ABS and the covered bonds, they've not really been coming up to par so far. That's been kind of brushed aside as a sort of year end phenomenon and they're expected to pick up but there is a bit of concern over that 500 mark, that 500 billion euro that it just wouldn't be big enough. A, to get the ECB to their target or just maybe even the target's not big enough just for the ECB really to try and turn things around in the euro zone which is obviously slumping. So that's the overall driver of things but obviously we've got to pay attention to the data that's going to be affecting us this week. On the European front, we've got industrial production, sort of culmination of some of those numbers that we saw last week which is not expected to be too impressive. That's on Wednesday. We've also, importantly on Wednesday, very much related to the prospects for QE got the results of the European Court of Justice decision on the legality of the OMT purchases. These never actually took place but it does give some ideas to where Europe politically stands in terms of accepting QE. OMT was essentially a QE program but sort of a bit more finessed in terms of it was sort of targeted if you like. But definitely a good inclination as to what chances we have of QE will be that Jan 14th meeting and that will definitely be a big influence on markets come Wednesday. We've also got trade balance. I don't see that really being a massive influence but that is something to watch of course. That's probably the other big data piece from Europe this week. That's on Thursday. Now while we're on currencies, let's have a look at the British pound. Now that's obviously been cratering alongside the Euro. Here's the daily chart. This was that consolidation area we were in. We've just nosedived since then. We found a bit of support just around the old 150 psychological level. That was obviously a pretty indetermined week where we pretty much ended where we started with kind of long legs in either direction, kind of showing us the indecision and the volatility after this big decline heading down towards. We obviously broke this fairly decisive level. The 150 to 70 I had it as and then this next one which I pretty much pinpoint around this 148.37, this first low you could say 148.50 to round it off. That's the kind of target that we're heading towards at the moment. I suppose probably the big one in influencing the pound this week, I mean really the big thing influencing this pair is the dollar. But from the pound end of the equation, it's the inflation data that's coming out tomorrow. We saw the Eurozone tip down into deflation and it's sort of low inflation retype theme as expected to continue with the UK and indeed with the US. With base of the general idea being that oil prices keep pushing inflation down. Not just CPI but the core figure will be impacted by, it's not to say the core figure will head down, but it will be impacted by the lower prices just through this sort of cumulative effect, through all the kind of lower input costs for the rest of the industry. Lower costs you're able to pull your prices down a bit. In the short term, these are obviously strong trends we're looking at and fundamentally there's nothing really to undo these trends at the moment. So we're just looking at kind of short term bounces. Obviously we caught that peak at 152. Now we'll have to be monitoring things as to whether that ends up being the highest we're going to get, whether we can actually correct back towards this 152.70 type area. As you can see these are the lows here. I think it basically reacted off the midpoint of these two lows. So if we do go higher, I'll be looking at this peak which does correspond with that longer term level above 152.70 running into 153. But it's a good chance we don't make it that far. And a good little judgment in the short term as to whether we are going to see lows. If we could break through that, no kind of nondescript trend line there, that would probably be a good sign. Maybe if we go up sort of fail to get a new high, then a break, that would be perfect. It could happen the other way around, of course. These kind of indications have never worked quite perfectly. But if you see a breakdown, then a move up through it again, perhaps, but a failure, failure to get higher, then that next leg lower could be the indication that we're heading down towards that 148 in change level we're discussing. We had touched on dollar yen a bit, but yes, I mean in terms of the US dollar side of the equation, retail sales, that's going to be pretty big because that kind of gives us an idea as to what was happening over the Christmas period because obviously that's the December retail sales. November were very good. We had this sort of Black Friday type phenomenon involved there. But December is obviously Christmas sales. We're looking at the kind of improvement year over year. But these lower oil prices do seem to be starting to feed through to the consumer. We've got a bit of extra change in our pockets thanks to the lower oil price. Whether that lower oil price is a function of slowing global demand or of increased global supply, which one of those factors is the bigger one will probably be a big impact on where markets go because if it's a demand thing then obviously that shows a sort of generally slowing economy which most of the world is slowing. That's known. But if the way oil price is looking it's going to slow a lot further and the U.S. can't be completely immune from that and nor can the U.K. But if it's a supply thing then maybe that has some light comes out of the market. We see a reduced number of oil rigs. Supply comes into line with demand and we can see oil prices tick higher again. But for the moment, nonetheless whatever the cause is, it's quite good for you and I going out and spending. So that's why we're seeing some boost to the retail sales and we are entering earnings season for Europe and the U.S. But the U.S. is being kicked off today by Alcoa and actually later in the season typically we'll see results from some of these U.S. retailers and we'll have an idea how they're doing. They were kind of laggards throughout most of 2014 but so they could be a sector that's really seeing some relative strength now. As I mentioned, we've got also the inflation data for the U.S. that is on Friday, I believe. And so again, we're probably going to see this sort of same picture where it's kind of low levels of inflation and just take a sting out of the central bank's tail in terms of when they actually might do a rate hike. There's just no real pressure to hike rates when inflation is at such low levels. And depending on how these inflation reports come out, that could be a reason for some slight change up in how well the U.S. dollar has been performing but the likelihood is even though the inflation is low in the U.S., it's going to be a bit higher than that of Europe and the U.K. and Japan. So, you know, all those themes kept in mind. We'll switch over to expertise and start with a good old U.K. Of course, if you have any questions at all on markets I am or I'm not discussing, chuck them through to the old chat window there and happy to go through them. This is the picture that we all know for the U.K. 100, bang into this 6900 level. To me, just this dramatic collapse that we saw for that week of December 7th, that is not indicative of a strong market. You know, we saw a good rebound the next week but obviously it didn't surpass it and that's not all that surprising given how far we came lower. And to me, the picture looks like, I mean, this is probably better seen. As you can see, pretty good on the weekly chart there. You know, that's the kind of rising trend where, you know, you could draw a channel here, same trend line and then you can draw, you know, that's kind of where it started out whereas, okay, hitting the top of the channel strong, bang up and then, you know, and just haven't made it anywhere near the top of the channel, banging into the same level, broke the lower end of it, come back, went through it a bit, came down again heavily, now we've come off it and actually done a pretty consistent test of it, you know, that may be coincidental or not. You know, we're basically testing this channel level again now so having broken back through and then failed, to me the picture looks pretty negative. You know, there's not the actual confirmation of that change of trend yet. We've had the break of the trend line. We've had no high highs made, so we're not an uptrend really, long term, but we're not right in a kind of collapsing downtrend because obviously we've formed a high high there. It's still in line with this general range so we certainly could take up to 6,900 and through to 7,000 and start on to new high prices, but that's not my default assumption at this point. You know, growth in the UK perhaps has seen the best it's going to get in and around the second and third quarter last year and it's kind of coming down a bit. That's not that surprising given the amount of trade that we do with Europe and you know, in this kind of state of affairs over there, you know, the European economy is dragging the UK down with it. So shorter term, you know, the trend is less obvious to be quite honest. It's not a particularly nice trading environment. It's a pretty kind of choppy type trend and in this kind of choppy environment you really want to be looking to the top and the bottom of the range or some kind of confluences of support and resistance in the interim. So you can kind of see what's happening here is that we saw that sharp drop. This is that big weekly drop off, came back, we tested the range that preceded that, came off. You know, this is the kind of breakout level here that kind of turned us around. You know, we had that big spike and other spike there, then broke through it and that basically those spike levels that have been tested moved back. You know, this is where we broke down around here. You know, we were kind of heading high but then we saw this big drop-off candle and that's kind of what we're testing at the moment. So you can see it's kind of just getting to those breakout areas going down and down, work out its direction. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw another run at 6775 but I don't see us getting through it. That's my assumption. So the higher we get to that, to my mind, is the sort of lower and lower risk short until it's somewhere above there. You know, you decide that the short's not wrong. Not right. Now, Germany's quite, the Germany 30 is quite a clear picture at the moment. Basically you've got this kind of, triangle type pattern going on and the upper trend line of which is quite clear and we're coming up and testing it again. So, you know, the fact that we haven't made it down to the bottom trend line, you know, we've held on to that 21 period moving average on the four-hour chart and we're up and testing the trend line again. You know, that speaks well to the trend line. So, you know, that would suggest we're on for a break but, you know, we may just get a failure at the highs and be in all kind of double top situation or we may, even if we break through it, we've got some fairly stiff resistance going through it. This is like 9925-ish and even if we do get the break, that could scupper the upside. But through those, for those of you who haven't seen this, I think we're on for another retest of 10.095-10.100 and then perhaps beyond. But, you know, in terms of these kind of breakout areas, short-term situations, this has been a strong candle, so it's certainly kind of riskier to short. We've seen a bit of a hammer there. We're getting through. So we'll see what happens in and around this trend line. If we see a kind of sharp reaction off there, there could be some kind of potential for this trend line to again act as a resistance. You know, if you can see that based on these closing prices, it's really about there. You know, that's where all these sort of basically kind of highs are coming in and around. So that would set us up around that 9835 and the trend line. Some potential there for that to cause a bit of a lower move. But generally speaking, we are in the short-term at least sort of holding onto, you know, the one-hour chart's a bit less clear, but on the four-hour, you know, we are pretty much moving higher, you know, high, high, high low, you know, and should we get through these, you know, we're looking at higher, high, high. So short-term kind of higher trend within the scope of this kind of small triangle-type range. Let's have a look at U.S. markets, U.S. stocks. Let's just keep in mind the general context that we're in here. When we do see a bit of a few down-days in U.S. stocks, it's tempting to get very bearish. But really, look where we are. We're just, you know, this is still a solid-up trend. You know, things we're looking and worrying here when we dip through this 55-week MA, but bounce straight back through it. We haven't made much of a new high beyond the peak that was formed in November. Nonetheless, we did make a new high, and we've been making higher lows. So up trend very much intact. And this, even though we did close the week lower last week on our chart, at least, it's, you know, that was quite a strong reversal off the lows and that shows some kind of strength. And we're seeing that follow-through this morning, which is also a sign of strength. But, you know, this is on the daily chart. We are kind of, this is not really anything. This is just me connecting the most recent highs and lows, but going somewhere towards creating a sort of rising wedge, which would actually be a bearish pattern. You know, should we see a top touch there, bounce to the bottom then sort of into the mid and then fail. So that's a possible scenario. So I'll just draw on those on there to sort of see where price, if in fact prices react off there. It's only been two, you know, two highs. So it doesn't really make for any kind of significant trend line, but you just draw it on there. I drew a dashed line just to remind myself that it's not significant until actually you see some kind of actual confirmation that it is. General trend lines, you need three touches to make it sort of something worth watching. And the, in the US SPX, the similar kind of choppy sideways type of environment kind of caught in that kind of, you know, obviously looks pretty much identical with that kind of wedge type of pattern. Haven't drawn it in there, but what I have drawn is just it was an interesting, I thought. This is the recent poor hire. We're correcting off the 38.2%, so showing that fibs are kind of working at the moment. Should this fail and we drop down a bit, there is a confluence of support potentially at the, what was it, December, January 6th high, and the 50% retracement of that move higher. So when you see two levels overlapping like that, they're always worth paying attention to. You know, obviously I can't go into the details of strategies here, but broadly speaking, you know, you're either having an order at a level of confluence to get triggered or you're waiting for some kind of price action or indicator signal to confirm that that level is working and then entering at what is probably a higher price. Okay, coming into the end of the old webinar here, but got time to go over some of the main commodities. This is WTI, WTI crude. We're running right down into the lows again here. So we've had this sideways movement a couple of times. We've tried to get through this 49, 50, 55 arguably level, not done it. We could get another move off the lows, but at this point it doesn't really look like a reversal pattern. It looks more like a continuation pattern to my mind, something more like a flag than a double bottom. The bottoming patterns are generally a bit kind of deeper, or reversal patterns in general are a bit deeper than the continuation patterns tend to be a bit tighter. So this is the level to keep an eye on this 46, 70, 50 through there, and then we're into downtrend territory again and we're looking for selling into the weakness. In terms of trend following, we're below all the MAs, everything screams sell. We're going to see a bottom out eventually in oil, but it's just certainly too early to call it at this point. Interesting little side note is that on the 4-hour RSI we've basically got a head and shoulders pattern there. Going around this kind of key 40 level, you can see that we fail to even get close to the 50 mark, which would indicate some possibility of switching over to an uptrend. Gold, here's an example where I had this line was dotted, was dashed because I just had two peaks connected. It does actually connect one of these lows up here, I think, but it's a bit incidental, even to the point. So you do get these internal trend lines like that, but you can waste a lot of time looking for those. But you can see it's working at the moment. We're getting a reaction off here. So this is a daily chart. Should we see a day finishing along these lines, that's quite like a little bearish signal. We've got a resistance, a reversal candlestick pattern. That would suggest back down to the MAs and then down to the bottom of this sort of dubious rising trend line here that I have in place. And you can see that these sort of the RSI is playing along with this. We're basically stuck between them. I've put a couple of dark lines in, but really we're basically trading in between the 40 and 60 level, which is basically indicative of the sideways market. Obviously we're in the plus 70, that's uptrending and overbought minus 30 with downtrending and oversold. But we know we're not doing either of those. So that's about it in terms of the key events and charts for this week. Not seeing any Q&A at this point, so I will wish you all a good week of trading. And I'll see you at next week's broadcast. Of course if you do want to rewatch this anything that you want to just hear again, compare up with your own charts, obviously keep in mind we've got the chart forum, so you can copy across all of the charts that I've shown today into your own charts should you wish to do so, but should you want to kind of check back on something I've said, the recording will be available on YouTube. Okay, thanks a lot everyone, Jasper Lulla signing out. Bye.