 Well, visual asset news or Dan for short. My name is Rob. Today, what I want to talk to you or everybody about is real estate. Real estate, the things that are going on behind the scenes and a potential of a 10-year bear market. So to talk about that, I brought in a friend of the show, Jordan Wears, to come on in and talk to us. Jordan, thanks for stopping by. I appreciate you having me on. Oh, this is going to be good. This is going to be good because this is, I like real estate, you like real estate. And of course, we also like to get to the facts. So the first thing we're going to talk about is, who are you, Jordan? First of all, who are you? Why is this seven-year housing cycle false? We're going to take a look at a diagram, which everybody seems to want to believe. Also, are we in a 10-year bear market? And that's equities, crypto and housing. And lastly, the big question, so should we diamond hands or crypto or maybe just diamond hands? Real estate both are not above. So first things first, Jordan, who are you? Where'd you come from? What's your background? So as a kid, I was an entrepreneur and I started my first business practically just out of diapers. And I got into aviation really heavily, had an aviation business that I grew and built and sold when I was 18 years old. Holy smokes. And got into the real estate business. And for 20 years, a little over 20 years, I've been a professional real estate investor. I've seen the highs. I've seen the lows. I've been a fund manager, a consultant, a developer, an investor, a flipper, residential commercial, across the board. And over the course of the last 20 years, I've done about 1.5 billion worth of real estate transactions. So I've kind of seen all the facets, the good and the bad and the ugly. Yeah, I got to tell you, man, it never surprises me. And we talk about it offline, how you'll have people who have done the action, walk the walk, talk the talk, and not really much visibility. Like, you got a great channel. I've checked it out. I was starting to watch it after you were on Ben's channel over at the Cryptoverse. And you got a whopping 4,000 subscribers, but you put out fantastic information about the housing market. And also, you're a big believer in crypto as well. So like I said, it just never... No, it astounds me that this is where we're at. So everybody who's watching the video right now, the link in the description for Jordan's YouTube channel. So Jordan, let's jump into it. Let's do it. This right here. This was talked about when you were on Ben's channel. And this has been circulating quite a bit for the housing market. And it looks legitimate. And I can see where we're at because seven years, seven years, you had a US selection campaign, Brexit, a little bit of a small recession there, and then things just top off. So first of all, with your history of going through market crashes, because you were around in the 2008-2009 crash and got handed a couple of losses there, but came back. It was more than a couple. Yeah, well, we need to talk about that. I skipped over it too much. But tell me why this chart is false. Everybody believes in this. And I've seen this. I'm like, that makes sense. You know, listen, it's really easy when you put your eye to a chart to say, oh, well, this makes total sense. And listen, if your audience was into crypto in 2021 and 2022, they've seen charts like this. And they're posted all over Twitter, right? Sure. And they had profit targets for Bitcoin at 100,000, 150, 250, 500,000. We've seen the charts. You can create charts. This particular chart, to me, doesn't have any historical basis to go behind it. And a chart that I showed on Ben Cowan's channel on Into the Cryptoverse, that chart, this is 200 years, more than 200 years, worth of cyclical data in real estate activity. And real estate activity obviously precedes price to a pretty big degree. And everyone kept saying, well, Jordan, that chart's great. But this other chart shows that we're going to have a top, a big blow off top in 2025 or 2026. And it's based on the same data. And I made a comment on Ben's Cowan's channel that really got me a lot of flak. And that was that I said it was based on nothing. And if you go to the 200 year real estate data cycle chart, there's nothing in this chart that's been so spot on. I mean, infinitely correct, it would seem, for 200 years. And it's roughly a plus or minus 18 and a half year real estate cycle. And you can see there towards the right side that we were scheduled to top in this real estate cycle right there at 2020, we're maybe leaning into 2021. And you can also see that over the course of the last three tops in the activity cycle, we've topped a couple of few years late in the cycle. And so, I was expecting that we would top somewhere between 2020 and 2022. And that's pretty much, I mean, we nailed it in 2021. We absolutely nailed it. Now, if you look at this chart, there is nothing that would suggest anything bullish about the next five years. I mean, absolutely nothing. There's no retracement. There's no recovery. It's a really straight line up and straight line down for the most part, in terms of where the real estate activity cycle is going to go. Also, from a macro backdrop, when you put a rising interest rate environment on the backdrop of real estate, it's one of the most incredibly offensive things that happens to real estate prices over time is the interest rate cycle changes. And over the course of the last 40 years, we have been in a declining interest rate environment, the massive bull market in bonds. And so, when I look at a chart that's just created kind of seemingly out of nowhere, without any data behind it that I can look at that says, hey, we're going to have a blow off top in 2025 or 2026. I can't get behind that. I just can't get behind that. My experience tells me as well that real estate doesn't ebb and flow in the way that that chart articulates. Real estate is a very big asset class. It's one of the biggest asset classes in the entire world. And when real estate turns from bullish to bearish or the tides turn in real estate cycles, they don't just have little blips and then continue on up. Real estate is a very steady asset class until the fundamentals change. And when the fundamentals change, you enter the next phase in the cycle, which at this point is a bear market. Yeah, everybody seems to not want to hear exactly what you're saying. But unfortunately, that's what we're going into. And actually, we're here right now. And one thing to note about, we talked about just how big the real estate market is, there's a graph, a graphic that I always throw up. It's all the world's funds or money or capitalization and one visualization. Each one of these little squares is $100 billion. Global real estate, this was back in, this was an older chart in 2020. Global real estate is $280.6 trillion. So when people think about, oh, well, it's just really not that big. I mean, look, global debt is only $253 trillion. The money supply, which grants it is much bigger thanks to U.S. Looking at $35 trillion, total stock market is $90 trillion, Fortune 500 gold, look at gold, $12 trillion. And crypto back in the day, a couple of years ago, was only $244 billion. Again, very small. And if we can just take a look at that and just extrapolate that, that is a large chunk of how much we have. So when you talk about, yeah, when you talk about this, you know, like, well, these are the cycles and in case we have to move it, I can definitely see what you're talking about. You know, I remember back, you know, kind of going back to the great financial crisis and what happened between 2008 and 2010. At the time, I was a debt fund manager. I had a hard money debt fund. And I remember, I mean, I had some of the smartest guys that I knew, mentors of mine that were on my company advisory board. And, you know, they all told me what a recession was. At the time, I didn't fully understand what the word recession meant to real estate. And they all told me, well, what will typically happen is you'll see a, you know, a 10 or a 15 or a 20% collapse in real estate values, you know, at the top of a cycle. And I mean, these are smart guys. I mean, ex CFO of Sotheby's International, ex CEO and founder of a public company. I mean, smart guys, very, very smart guys, all of which were invested with me. And from 2007, things started to slow. And it was pretty clear that, that we were going to see a leveling off 2004 to 2006, was just almost a parabolic move in real estate. Yeah, particularly residential real estate. In 2007, we started seeing the signs. And by 2008, it was pretty clear that we were in a full blown, blown slowdown. That didn't come to roost for another 12 months almost, almost to the end of about 2008, early 2009, where it was an all out crash. So we're talking about, you know, 18 months, 24 months from slowing to freefall in a crash environment. Now, if I were to say the crypto market's going to crash, like it could happen at any second, right? And it wouldn't surprise anybody because that's how it trades, right? But with real estate, a crash takes two years to fully develop. And then to recover from that crash takes years. And one of the mistakes that I see a lot of people make when they think about real estate is they use the framework of trading crypto or trading equities or trading commodities and the cycles that are associated with those. And they believe that real estate has to trade that way. But real estate will never trade that way because it's an illiquid asset class. There's no sell button. There's no trading hours. There's no buy it market. There's no place limit orders. You know, it's an ebb and a flow between buyers and sellers with the macro conditions as a backdrop. And that's very different than anything else. Yeah, I never, when we talked about this in the beginning before we came on it, it struck me as odd that people would look at real estate like that. To me, I'd look at real estate as just as a solid asset that you own. And of course, it is a revenue generating asset if you use it in the right way. Now, there's of course, you know, you have your homestead and that works out pretty well. There's also a lot of benefits tax wise as far as depreciation values. And of course, you can do a lot of things with it. I think the problem is maybe people aren't the assumption that everything is like, we're going to buy this house, we're going to flip it, we're going to make a ton of money because that's been popularized on cable outlets. But it's just not how like I look at, I look at real estate the same way I look at good projects and crypto as a long, as a long term hold, if you're, you know, want to look at that, but even more so, because for these assets, I can pass on to my kids and grandkids. Sure. And of course, it just kind of, I just see it as that way. And also, it's also a pretty good hedge against what potentially is coming. Now, I know that like right now, we do a lot of short term rentals, but we can just as easily flip it on his head and say, well, now we're going to do long term rentals or things get really bad, we sell. And that I think is a nice little hedge against what could potentially happen, which would leave me to my next question, Jordan. Ten-year bear market. Potentially. Okay. So here's the thing, and I need to go back to your to your piece here for the real estate activity. So first of all, what are we on the left hand column here? It goes from six to 200. What are we looking at here as far as activity itself? So these are, these are, it's basically an activity index. So the creator of this chart, which was widely popularized by Edward R. Dewey in the study for the foundation or foundation for the study of cycles, excuse me. And they just indexed activity levels in real estate. And they wanted to try and find a real estate cycle or predictable cycle. And, you know, there's so many factors with the price of real estate. But the one that they determined was most indicative of price movements was real estate activity. And so, you know, you think of activity like Ben Cowan on Into the Cryptoverse, you know, he has, he has an amazing social stats chart, right? Where, you know, the more people who are looking at it, the more activity there is, the more Google searches, the more Twitter mentions. This is, you know, the, the 200 year old equivalent of that, which is what is the real estate activity level? Is it just, it's not just number of sales, but it's, you know, the activity surrounding real estate. And as you can see, you know, these peaks and troughs are really accurate. And they're 18 and a half years apart from each other. Yeah. And I think this was the big thing that was eye-opening to me because he sent this to me right, I mean, pretty much before this interview. And I, when I lined this up and I took a look at the S&P 500 historical reference. And what I find interesting here is that, and this is what I worry about, which is there was an article from Stanley Druckenmiller. And he said that, hey, the probability of a stock market being flat for a decade is a very good chance. And I thought, when I first read this in September, I'm like, there's no way that's possible because we haven't been in that. And then when I took a look at, of course, what he talked about, I took a look at the S&P 500. If we go from, we can just see it right here, 19, excuse me, roughly 1965, almost an all-time high, 865, 870, 68. We didn't see that again until all the way over here until roughly 1980s. Yeah, early 1980. Early 1980. I mean, come up to this point right here. So when I took a look at this, the real estate activity, so everything is in 10-year blocks. We started 1960, then over here between 1960 and 1970, roughly was an all-time high for real estate activity. Am I looking at that right around 1965? Okay. When I lined that up over here to 1965, that's roughly when we had all-time highs. Yeah, which, okay, great. Now let's keep going. So then 1970 to 1980, somewhere between those, we had a big huge bottom here in the real estate. If I come over here, I'll be damned if it isn't 1974, we had some huge bottomouts. Yep. And then if I come back 1960, 70, 80, then between 1980 and 1990, we had some pretty huge activity for the market. And if I come over here, again, we're going up in the same direction. So it's like when we overload, I mean, we can't, it's not perfect, I understand, but if we take a look at the activity for real estate, and this was something that struck me one time, I remember one of the former Fed shares, they talked about how there's two things that kind of lead us in and out of recessions. One of those is automotive industry, and the second one is real estate. So I take a look at this, and I'm thinking myself, holy smokes, we could definitely see, like what Druckenmiller says, 10-year stagnation. And you sent this to me, this is the market, S&P, between 65 to 82 looking pretty choppy sideways. Do I miss anything here? No, that is what Stanley Druckenmiller was talking about, because he specifically referenced this period of time. Let me kind of go back to people's bias. People who have lived the majority of their life over the last 20 years only know the last 20 years as a framework for their life. And yeah, they might look at historical charts from time to time or something that's posted on Facebook, or they might see Howard Marks or Stanley Druckenmiller or Ray Dalio on CNBC, and they say, oh, okay, boomer, right? And they don't really pay attention to it. But these guys have seen a lot of life, and they've seen a lot of real estate cycles and market cycles and debt cycles and economic cycles. And a lot of people that I see on Twitter and that even engage with me on YouTube very much have a bias that the last 10 to 15 to 20 years is going to be how it's going to be forever. And everybody has their own different spin, their own different narrative, whether it's M2 and money supply and money printing and fiat currencies and debasement of currencies. And there's lots of arguments, and I'm not saying that they're not good and legitimate arguments, but a cycle is a cycle is a cycle and they have been happening for years and years and years. And this buy the dip and just wait and hold type of mentality is frightening. And I have some statistics that I thought were really interesting that Druckenmiller talked about in his interview. He said that if you bought the Dow in 1929 before the crash, it took him to 1954 to get back to even if you the Dow was the same in 1966 as it was in 1982. I mean, when you look at those kinds of statistics, you can't just say we'll just buy it and hold unless you have a 20 year time horizon to get nowhere, right? That's to me, that doesn't make a whole lot of sense. And so when you when you look at Druckenmiller, you know, what he said was that all the factors that have driven the secular bull market for the last 40 years have not only gone away, but they've reversed. And the biggest factor that he cited for that was the bull market and bonds, which is the, you know, quote unquote bear market and interest rates, where rates keep going lower and lower and lower. And we very decisively broken out from that trend. And everybody is believing the Fed's going to pivot, we're going to be at zero interest rates next year. You know, the Fed can't keep doing this. And the honest answer is they can and we're in a new paradigm. Howard Marks, another very, very, very famous multi billionaire investor founder of Oak Tree Capital just came out and published a note. You can find it on Google. He talked about a sea change in the equity markets and that he thinks that we're entering a new paradigm of equity markets and market action. And I think that we're in a period of time where it's honestly very likely that we see stagnant returns over the next five, 10, maybe even 12 years in the equity markets and probably several asset classes. And it wouldn't surprise me at all if real estate was one of those. Interesting. You know, when I hear about everything chopping sideways for 10 years, it gives me angst, it gives me anxiety. But it is just the reality. And I think if we can look at it and stare it down and go, okay, this is a potential. This is something that we need to be aware of and we need to move forward. So that will lead me to my last question then, which was this. So if we know these things can happen, not that they are going to, because no one has a crystal ball and stuff, but they could. And there's some data that can support that. So what do we do? So if we're taking a look at should it be diamond hands crypto forever, diamond hands real estate then, or what are we doing here for plans? Well, let me start by saying, I think every investor is different. I'm very tactical. I enjoy it. There's some people who get a lot of joy out of buying a gold coin and putting it on a shelf in a safe and opening that safe once a month and looking at that gold coin and saying, it's still in there and I feel good. And they want to be diamond hands on gold. If you want to be diamond hands in crypto, maybe some people do. It's not for me. I have built my net worth and my nest egg through being very tactical and taking profits when they're available. Now, I will tell you the one mistake that I made. And I'm very open and candid about my mistakes, because I think everybody should learn from my mistakes. I'd like everybody to learn from my mistakes. I didn't sell my crypto and Bitcoin at the top of the market. I had the diamond hands mentality and it's going to keep going. And we're just at the precipice of the big run-up. I looked at Metcalfe's law and all the other things out, plan B, stock to flow, which has been revised. I don't know how many times. I bought into it too and I was afraid to sell because I thought that I might be giving up some gains. But what I can tell you is that from 2011 to 2020, when I rebuilt myself from the ashes of the great financial crisis, I rebuilt myself by taking profits as I went and rolling one profit into another property, into another property, into another property. But doing it very tactically. Not just passively, not just buying a piece of real estate, saying I'm going to own it forever. I don't care what values do. I don't care what interest rates are. I'm going to own it forever. I can tell you with absolute certainty that I would not be where I am today had I had the mentality that I was going to buy it and hold it forever. And so to me, I think buying and owning anything forever is a mistake. Things change. The macro backdrops change. Interest rates change. Markets change. Behaviors change. Politics change. World conditions change. And so I think one of the greatest underrated skills of a good investor, whether it's crypto or equity is a real estate, is being able to recognize change and change your mind and change your strategy when it's appropriate. So no, I wouldn't diamond hands real estate. I think that over the course of the next 10 years, it's going to be a tactical market again. I think equities is going to be a tactical market. I think if you just buy when values are very cheap and sell when values get slightly overreasonable, that is going to be the way that you massively outperform what even might be a stagnant equity market or real estate market for the next 10 years. Buy when it's low and sell when it's high and don't have this hodl forever mentality. Yeah. And then just to add on that, just because we see some sideways action, we don't get back to the all time highs like we talked about with the S&P. But just remember, even though in 65, we almost hit the all time highs, there's a chance to accumulate at some points and then write it back up and sell. And then of course, we cannot hear, there's always opportunities. It's just those opportunities just become tighter and tighter. And that's just how I see things. So I think active money management and active investors is going to be a narrative for the next decade. For the last 20, 30 years, it's been a passive investor. It's been a passive manager's environment. It's been by an index fund, by an ETF. I just, I think all that goes away. Yeah. And I can tell you like, sometimes like the sell and forget it has bitten us in the A quite a quite a few number of times in crypto. How many times have we been been a part of this and just not heard about, oh, there's a big huge problem on these centralized exchanges or, oh, there's a token swap program going on and we have to swap this out before certain dates or else it's going to become worthless or, oh, there was this huge news that came out that just allowed us to just say, if I just would have known that news or that information or that chart or whatever else it is to be a part of it. I think now is the time for us to realize that, hey, we have to, if we're going to invest in this market, we have to be in this market and be educated as much as possible. So Jordan, that's why I like having smart individuals like yourself on my show to tell us the things that are going on. So I appreciate it. You're very welcome. And listen, you've already been so gracious to plug my YouTube channel, but on my YouTube channel, I do talk about some of the metrics, some of the Redfin indicators, the charts, what's happening in different real estate markets across the country. I do talk about crypto a little bit. You can say I had Greg Foss and Dr. Jeff Ross and had Natalie Brunel and just some really amazing folks on my channel. I talked about crypto a little bit, but for the most part, I try and stick to real estate. But some of those videos, and this data is available to everybody. I want to educate investors to come to their own conclusion and not just look at what Twitter accounts are doing or YouTubers are doing. Look at the data yourself and come to your own conclusion. I go through chart after chart, after chart about real estate markets and metrics throughout the United States, both on a national look and then market by market. And there is nothing that I can find right now that gets me bullish about real estate at all. I mean, there's not a single thing out there that's screaming to me, Jordan now might be an opportune time to buy. There's just nothing there. But the great thing is this, bull markets don't last forever, bear markets don't last forever. At some point, things will change and there will be opportunities abound and that's why it's so important to be that active investor. Can I leave you with one thought? And that is that bear markets are usually shorter than the bull markets. And so that means you have more time to make money than you do to lose it. And if you just try and time as best as you can, nobody's going to get it perfect, but just time it as best as you can, you can outperform just about anybody. I'll take that. So Jordan, we've said it all today, not the things that we may want to hear, but the things that we actually had to hear. So again, if you're looking to just increase your knowledge about what is going on in the real estate market, Jordan's YouTube channel will be linked in the description. Check them out. I got to tell you, again, sometimes it's not the loudest or the most boisterous or the people with the goofiest thumbnail, the people you really want to listen to are the ones that have the best advice. Jordan, thanks so much for stopping by. I appreciate you having me. Thank you. All right, everybody. Again, like and subscribe and thanks for watching.