 Oh fuck we're gonna start right now What's up everyone today's Monday today's YouTube live day So I haven't done a YouTube live in about two weeks because last week on Monday was a President's Day, so the market was closed So it's been a while since I've been on here talking and a lot has changed number one I've gotten fucking fatter go figure. I've been eating like dessert and chocolate cake and I don't know what the hell's going on And I'm hitting the fucking my stop loss isn't hitting on my fucking weight It just keeps going and extending and short-squeezing and short-squeezing so I guess I'm a fucking fat-ass now, but anyway Couple things I want to talk about before I get into this week's market action is if you guys saw over the weekend I posted a podcast I was on this is a little bit of a different podcast It's not really a trading podcast although I do talk about stocks, but this is more of a watch podcast So if you guys have seen or not seen I have a very nice watch that I bought as like a memory for You know amc GameStop and you know, I kind of came on this podcast with the people that sold me that watch So if you guys want to watch it, it's on their YouTube channel. It's called timepiece trading is their YouTube channel So it's gonna be a little bit about cars watches lifestyle with a little bit of trading on it too, right? So I decided to fuck it for today. I'll wear that fancy watch for the YouTube live So that's that in terms of market action today is February 28 2022 it is the last day of the month in February So what has happened in the freaking markets, man is war all of a sudden bullish. So I want to kind of Explain a couple things that have been happening in the overall market, right? So there's gonna be a little bit of a different video because you know the small cap stocks that we normally trade and that we normally play with It's not that they're slow. It's just right now the headlines the thing that people's everyone's wondering about is Russia Ukraine stock market this inflation blah blah blah our small cap stocks. We're still trading. We're still, you know making money, but the main thing on everyone's mind is You know Russia Ukraine all that stuff. So I kind of want to talk about that. So First things first as mentioned today is the last day of the month So what happened in the stock market leading up to this Russia Ukraine invasion war, you know, very sad things that are happening right now. So first things first is when Vladimir Putin who is the dictator of Russia Started saying that he's gonna take over Ukraine. He's gonna, you know, invade them. He's gonna do this He's gonna do that. No, the market started tanking very aggressively very aggressively So I kind of want to explain this concept, right? So last week we talked about, you know Buy the rumors sell the news setup Okay, and that's a setup where you know people buy in anticipation of a catalyst and then when the catalyst comes out They sell it This is almost like an inverse of that setup, right? It's almost like buy the news, right? Because what had happened was over the past, you know couple weeks of All this talk of Russia invading Ukraine, Russia invading Ukraine, markets started selling off very aggressively, right? So it almost was like everyone was shorting the smart money was shorting ahead of time, right? They were shorting and shorting and shorting and shorting the markets in anticipation of Russia invading Ukraine and then what had happened was when Russia did finally invade Ukraine and the market did Gap down and exhaust itself That is where the dumb money started shorting it and the smart money started covering it So it was almost an inverse of a sell the news It was almost like a buy the news, right? Because once that bad news was released Once that headline was gone once it actually fucking happened the market was like, all right Now we're gonna have to live with this, right? It's the same thing of as COVID now We're gonna have to live with this It's the same thing as everything else. So the market is very resilient guys and the market usually does the opposite of what everyone thinks so right now everyone is thinking that this war is gonna crash the market and Kind of it did for a week, right? For a week the market has been selling off and now everyone The retail money the dumb money is almost on the wrong side of the trade It feels like it seems like everyone is now shorting and shorting and shorting and adding to a loser adding to a loser And covering up higher because they missed the boat, right? The trade was supposed to be in anticipation of this news and once news got released everyone's like How is war good for business? How is war good? How is war good? What the truth of the matter is the stock market is not the economy the stock market is not The US GDP the stock market is pretty much future pricing, right future stock market is a bet on the future That's why companies like Tesla are worth $800 billion because their future is what the market is betting on, right? So for whatever reason the market has priced in this war, right over the past week It fell 10% and you know now the market is you don't agree whatever so a point is guys point is in the market It's almost like you have to think the opposite, right now This doesn't mean that the market is gonna go to all-time highs This could easily mean that the market eventually is gonna go back to lows But for now it seems like the shorts are on the wrong side of the trade in the overall market Because it was already front-run. It was already priced in the day The war got announced and we got that capitulation gap down That is when all the amateurs started shorting it and all the smart money started buying it So now seems like a lot of people are stuck on the short side That's why this Tesla is going crazy today if you look at it at eight hundred sixty five dollars last week It was six hundred eighty dollars, right almost a two hundred dollar bounce because probably everyone short at six eighty Everyone short at seven hundred everyone short at seven fifty everyone short at eight hundred now eight fifty eight sixty eight seventy They're covering right this is nothing it could be nothing more than a short cover rally We don't know guys. We don't know the point is right now The market tends to price in things, okay? It has priced in it seems like the interest rates going up and as priced in the Ukraine stuff going up And as long as there's no New headline or new catalyst or new pandemic it should probably just level out You know go up down go up down go up down because that's how the market is designed, right? The market is almost designed to screw over the most amount of people possible, right? And that's what's happening in this Russia Ukraine crisis. It's a crisis guys. It's very bad War is bad. God the shit that's happening. You create is horrible. It's terrible But the market is pricing the future. It's not pricing in the current It is priced in the current already sold off for a week a month a year Whatever the fuck it is it's sold off already, you know, we're Nasdaq is down 20% from the highs technically We're in bear market, right technically, but the point is guys that you have to remember that No matter if your thesis is right if your thesis is wrong Whatever the hell it may be you just have to have an exit strategy in case it goes right and in case it goes wrong and the prime example prime example is Tesla Last week it was 680 $700 everyone's like this go out of 500 Tesla Q is finally happening the company's fucking bankrupt short add add add add add add And you know today when it's trading at you know 865 people are like what the fuck just happened How is it rebounding? It's because guys the dumb money already it just already happened right it already happened It was already priced in right so I should something to keep in mind guys You know, I hope this Russia Ukraine crisis gets solved. I don't want to see anyone struggling I don't want to see anyone suffering But to me in my opinion in my opinion the market has already priced this in and because the market is already Priced as bad news in it's gonna take another wave of news to kind of bring it down and People over the weekend of Vladimir Putin was threatening to use nuclear bombs right nuclear warheads And let me tell you something guys if that motherfucker starts nuking shit left and right your portfolio isn't gonna matter Your crypto isn't gonna matter your watch isn't gonna matter Nothing's gonna matter you better have a fucking bomb shelter ready because no asset fucking matters if there's a goddamn nuke Okay, so I don't think it's gonna escalate that crazy. I think he's very I think put in is what 70 years old He's been a dictator for 20 fucking years Maybe this is his last hurrah to make money and I don't know if you guys know this But Putin is one of the richest people in the entire fucking world. He has fucking five times more money than Elon Musk It's all secretive. It's all hidden and what the governments around the world are doing is they're cutting off his access to money right now That motherfucker cares a lot about money So they're cutting off his access to money and I guess the market is Assuming that that is going to help so I don't know and again guys another thing that might happen right now is Markets green right now and the reason why I keep referencing that is because tomorrow is the state of the Union Okay, tomorrow is the state of the Union So what that means is Biden president Biden might say some shit and that might move the market again It's my sway. There's a lot of overnight risk and a lot of overnight Headline possibility in these markets guys. So if you are trading these markets, do not hold shit overnight You may miss off on a big payday You may miss off on a big fucking tank But the point is guys with Biden's state of the Union coming fucking tomorrow, you know It could be very very simple as hey We're gonna go to war with Russia to market's gonna take or maybe hey He says the co vid a mask mandate is over markets gonna shoot up We don't know what the fuck is gonna happen right now This is a very dark scary times in the overall market But all I could tell you guys is if you are watching these videos if you are here right now Nothing else matters imagine your risk as long as you have an exit strategy like on fucking. What was it? I am PP I am PP I was shorting at you know two dollars and forty cents today and my plan was if the stock breaks over pre-market high the Day, I'm wrong and I got to get out. I was wrong. I got out and I lost a hundred fifty bucks 150 bucks I spent more that on liquor every single night when I drink but you know in the market I made a plan I stuck to it and I was fucking wrong We're gonna be wrong so many times in the market everyone that shorted the market in anticipation of Russia and in After the announcement of Russia Ukraine got smoked anyone that bought the market before the Russia Ukraine got fucking smoked Anyone that shorted tests like a fucking smoke So there's the point is guys in the market we could treat whatever the hell we want We could do whatever the hell we want as long as we have a plan in mind and a lot of people in my opinion are betting on the market to crash and Because a lot of people are betting on the market to crash again not investment advice What I think is the inverse is gonna happen because the market always does the fucking opposite That's what I learned I learned that if everyone is saying the bull market is here the bear market is coming If everyone says the bear market is here the fucking bull market is gonna come. I don't know. I don't get it I'm just over here waiting and talking about what I'm seeing in this current market action And right now what I'm seeing in this current market action is the Russia Ukraine stuff is priced in unless President Biden comes around tomorrow during the State of the Union says some fucking crazy as shit I hope not. I don't want to fucking go to war. I don't want to fucking get a bomb shelter I don't want any of that shit, right so Do you guys have any questions on that before I proceed before I continue? I want to kind of see if you guys have questions on that concept waiting to see and here's also the thing guys again I'm not an economist. I'm not a fucking genius. I'm fucking shot to hell. I'm fucking crazy I don't know my fucking brain doesn't work properly, but you gotta remember guys The big reason why the market pulled back is because the Fed is raising interest rates, which I get I understand But the only reason why the Fed may not raise interest rates is if we go to fucking war Because all the past times in history that the United States has gone to war We have not been able to afford war The way that we afford war is we print more fucking money So God forbid God forbid this does happen You never know the Fed might back off and say, you know, we're not raising interest rates because we're going to fucking war The economy is gonna go to shit. So we don't know what's happening guys I don't fucking know what's happening the trillionaires the billionaires the fucking zillionaires. They don't know what's happening that they react Right they react and as traders we must react as well, right? These are very high-level concepts These are very high-level thinking and I might be totally wrong But I'm just trying to share what I see because I've learned that the market does the opposite of What the masses do if the masses are saying to fucking buy Bitcoin if my UPS driver is saying to buy Bitcoin That is when you sell Bitcoin if my UPS driver is coming and saying dude the market is gonna crash That is when I'm buying the fucking market. Okay That makes sense So now for the rest of the video guys I haven't really done like an audience Q&A in a very long time So I'm gonna take the live questions that are happening here and I'm just gonna kind of answer them live So if you guys have any questions, let's go through it right now. We'll do a brief audience Q&A bow. Great job on this IMPP short Thanks, pal. Thanks guys. And again, I'm not I'm not I'm not trying to do something where it's like CNN versus Fox Democrat versus Republican, you know, I don't want war as much as anyone else. I don't want it, right? I don't want people to get hurt. I don't want people to fucking die. I don't want it guys I don't want it but for whatever reason the market is pricing it in and that doesn't mean that okay Because I don't want fucking war because I think the market's gonna tank. I'm gonna fucking short the market I don't know man. I just don't know and I am enough of an adult To say when I don't know But just because I don't know it doesn't mean that I can't share my ideas around this concept of the market Trying to screw as many people as possible. That's just it. That's that's one thing I know for fucking sure One thing I know for sure is the market is gonna try to screw as many people as possible so if everyone is saying one thing if you do the opposite you make money if CNBC is telling you to buy a stock you sell a stock right shit like that guy shit like that is what I know for sure and That's what I'm trying to base these concepts these ideas this this thesis this hypothesis Around that idea. Okay So any questions guys? Let's go through it. I can make money consistently on paper money But can't manage to make money consistently with real money. I'm using like a hundred share size So it isn't a big deal So my thought process on that guys is you should make a plan right most of the time What happens is a lot of people they just wing their trades they wing it They don't know what they're gonna enter at they don't know what they're gonna exit that So if you're trading with paper money or live money make a plan IMPP my plan was to short at 240 cover out at 260 So if you have a plan on any stock Tesla Facebook Apple whatever did whatever's concept stock You want to trade right down a plan of a fucking piece of paper? I have fucking a list of papers right here so I can make my plan every fucking day because I'm I want to be robotic I want to be robotic. I don't when you're in a trade. You don't you're you're almost like you're drunk, right? almost like you're drunk and The thing is if I just look at my paper and my paper tells me to stop out at you know 250 I'm gonna stop at a 250 because that's what my plan was So I challenge you for the person that's paper trading and not making money with live money Write down your plan your entry your exit your stop Follow that plan and see if that's gonna make you money What do you think about? Stocks during war like Lockheed Martin Lockheed Martin is straight up man straight up. That's a defense stock Those are the that's the company that makes all the fighter jets and you know Maybe that's your way to hedge against war is you buy these defense companies. I don't know guys That's not something that I'm familiar with but you know just look at the chart and see if there's an opportunity there I mean, that's something that's pretty smart I haven't really looked into it and I don't mind looking into it But you know in times of war there's always gonna be money to make somewhere might be in the defense stocks Who knows how quickly should you size up? This is the age old question, man So Here's the problem first right the problem was sizing up too early is you are not ready to it Sizing up is a privilege. Okay. It's a privilege And if you're not ready for that privilege yet, then you are gonna blow up in my opinion guys size should be raised incrementally for example If you are a consistently profitable trader with 100 shares Be a consistently profitable trader with 100 shares for a month That doesn't mean make money every single day in a row But let's just try to make money consistently be green at the end of the month for a month Once you do that you could go up to 150 shares And then once you do that for another month Maybe go up to 250 shares and then maybe after the month after that go up to 500 shares The point is guys in my opinion you should not be ready to size up until you have some extra money in the bank I'm not saying have a million dollars in the bank. I'm not saying have a hundred grand in the bank But if your day trading account is $10,000 Well, when you have a $10,000 trading account and you have $10,000 in the bank Because of your consistently profitable trades that then gives you the opportunity to start incrementally sizing up more Okay, that's a concept that you should be very very aware of guys Have some extra money in the bank because when you size up the problem is that like Your losses are also going to increase and because your losses are also going to increase you better make sure that you have some sort of Safety net so mentally be prepared for the challenges that come with it. Does that make sense? Market continues to shoot up higher guys Tesla might even go to 900 in the next couple days after being at 680 When trading long, do you think the flow and market cap matters? Yes, of course some matters. So for example guys for example if a stock has a low float Low flow for me is anything under five million shares But stock has a low flow. It is extremely risky to go long and the edge is in your fate It's sorry It's extremely risky to go short and the edge is on the long But if a stock has a massive flow of a hundred million shares It is riskier to go long because it's gonna be much harder for the stock to go up. Does that make sense guys? So float and market cap matter the lower the float the more dangerous the short The lower the float the more dangerous the short right there guys see right there We have a new fucking concept the lower the float the more dangerous the short That's easy to fucking remember the lower the float the fucking riskier the short right shit like that So keep that in mind guys keep that in mind low flow is dangerous to go short All right guys, so I think I'm gonna wrap it up here I highly suggest that everyone watch the podcast on timepiece trading channel to get a look into this The assets I've actually already made 10% on my watch. It's an appreciating asset right now So if you guys want to learn more about that stuff you go watch their channel If you guys want to leave a comment about one lesson you learned on this video I'm gonna pick one person to win an MIC shirt and That's about it guys. I hope this video helped I know it's a little bit different to talk about overall market trends But shit the market right now is kind of fucking dead kind of boring and I thought this was something that maybe you Guys could learn from so if you guys like videos like this Let me know and coming soon is gonna be more vlog content. So this week. I'm gonna shoot another vlog with bow We're gonna be traveling together. So keep a look out for the next day trading vlog day in the life of a trader So see you guys back in MIC. Hope you had a good day and thanks for watching