 In my last video, I talked about the political instability at the Belarus-EU border caused by the mass influx of migrants that have been transported to the country. Unfortunately, this is not the only region in Eastern Europe that has seen the potential for major instability in the past few weeks. Tensions have increased once again between Ukraine and Russia, as there is speculation that Russia is planning an invasion of the former in early 2022, as they are moving tens of thousands of troops to the border. With all of this happening, can we expect a major war to break out between the two East Slavic nations? Ukraine and Russia have been very connected to each other for the past 100 years or so, in one way or another. Both lands became principal components of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics after its founding in 1922, in the midst of the Russian Civil War. However, Ukrainians faced adversity in the Soviet Union, as Joseph Stalin's policies led to a famine, known today as the Hallimador, that killed unknown millions during the 1930s. After World War II, the Soviet Union had clear control over all of Eastern Europe, and the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic expanded its borders to be co-turned with the modern Republic's borders. That is, with one exception, Crimea. The 19th of February 1954 saw the Oblast transferred from the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic to Ukraine under the rule of Nikita Khrushchev. The strategic peninsula, once home to the Turkic Crimean Tatars, saw most of its native people expelled to Central Asia, and the massive influx of Russians replacing them under Stalin's rule. This transfer in hindsight would be a major logistical challenge for a Russia that did not expect its empire to fall apart in such quick fashion. After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Ukraine and Russia kept cordial relations, with Ukraine wanting to secure its independence but also wanting to balance ties between Russia and the West. Ukraine mainly stayed in the Russian sphere of influence during its early years of independence, being part of the newly formed Commonwealth of Independent States, and largely relying on Russia for gas. Yet, tensions began to rise as the country faced economic downturn, and its people wanting a greater commitment to democracy. Ukraine became more skeptical of Russia, especially in 2004, with pro-Russian presidential candidate, and then Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, claiming victory in a fraudulent election, proved as such by many non-governmental organizations, and the Ukrainian people's outcry for their favorite candidate, Viktor Yushchenko, to be installed as president. This series of events became known as the Orange Revolution, which began to deepen division amongst the Ukrainian people. Those in the West of the country were in more favor of deepening ties with the Western world, and especially the EU, while those in the East, including the large Russian population, favored greater cooperation with Russia. Though Ukraine made some progress towards integration with the West under Yushchenko, Yanukovych's legitimate victory for the presidency in 2009 began to turn the country's eyes towards Russia again. A successive wave of moves pulling the country towards Russia, including joining the Commonwealth of Independent States Free Trade Area in 2011, and abandoning some charters that would have helped Ukraine gain ties to the EU, sparked the Euromaidan protests, starting in November 2013. The protests turned to full unrest with widespread violence erupting across the country in response to a new anti-protest law created by Yanukovych in January 2014. The protesters, also accusing the president of authoritarian crackdowns, demanded his removal. Emits the turmoil, Russia seized the opportunity to capture Crimea for itself on February 23, 2014, and once again becoming a commanding force in the Black Sea region, and strategically deadlocking a now hostile Ukraine, which had just removed Yanukovych the day before. Russia made quick work of this annexation due to the large Russian population of the peninsula. Ukraine also saw turmoil on its border with Russia, and the old blasts of Donetsk and Luhansk, which have become home to armed pro-Russian resistance movements against the Ukrainian government. Today, the Ukrainian populace is largely pro-Western and pro-democracy, and they've also tried to round out corruption in their government with limited success. Yet, the country does have its aspirations set. This aspiration has caused major contention between the West and Russia, with the latter seeing the former's once again encroaching on their sovereignty, as they had done in Central Europe the Balkans and Baltics. Though earlier this year there were some worry that tensions would escalate, the current event that is being cast across the news is something truly concerning. According to American defense intel, Russia already has 100,000 troops placed at the Ukrainian border, and is planning a multi-front invasion of Ukraine with 175,000 troops planned to be used. The United States has allegedly taken a hard line on this supposed threat, though we have yet to see how serious of a line they will take. On the other side, Russian President Vladimir Putin has called for the West to rule out any further eastward expansion of NATO, and the deployment of weapons systems posing a threat to us in close proximity to Russia's territory, in justification of their military buildup. The Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, has also warned Russia that any invasion of Ukraine would cause serious problems from the Russian state. With all these news headlines warning of a potential invasion, it is important to see what could happen if Russia did in fact invade Ukraine, and who would help either side. First of all, this threat should be taken seriously by all sides involved, as to prevent any unpreparedness for what could potentially happen, and scaling down aggression is also something that should be prioritized. Though it is not certain that Russia will invade Ukraine, the country should probably prepare for this possibility so that all necessary preparations have been made. So if Ukraine gets invaded by Russia, we can see three different regions that they can use to their advantage against them. To the north is Russian ally Belarus, and if an invasion force comes from there they could potentially make quick work of the country through the proximity of the capital, Kyiv, to Belarus. Russia could also use its own border to invade Ukraine from the east. Finally, Russian occupied Crimea could be used to blockade Ukrainian coastlines, and prevent any potential naval aid. It is likely that, if Russia were to invade, they would do it on all sides to surround Ukraine, ensuring a quick victory. The international backlash to this invasion could pan out in one of two ways. Heavy sanctions, or active military involvement. The United States has pledged to deter Russian aggression against Ukraine before the war even starts, so it does not happen. However, should invasion happen, we have yet to see whether the US will send its forces to help. Should it do so, Ukraine will gain a huge boost from a Western partner. Europe also needs to consider its odds about helping Ukraine in the event of invasion, as they would be right next door to a hostile Russia should the invasion go through to completion. Yet the most likely ally of Ukraine is actually Turkey, which has had an historically strong ties with the country. Also being located in the Black Sea, Turkey could deter Russia's stance in Crimea, and majorly disrupt their invasion plans. Turkey's military is also very powerful in comparison to its neighborhood, and it also helps that they are a local power. If Turkey is successful in helping Ukraine fight off Russia, ties would most likely increase greatly, giving Turkey a new, very strategic ally it could place its troops in. If the US, EU, and Turkey can work together to deter such an invasion, Ukraine would be in the best shape. However, I have some doubt that European and American forces will be willing to help their ally, which is unfortunate. In conclusion, I see the invasion as a very real possibility that the world should take seriously, and prepare for the consequences of. Russia would very likely use all three of its border points with Ukraine to invade, which would make a quick work in the country. At the same time, Ukraine has some potentially very powerful allies that could deter this invasion, and protect their sovereignty. Thank you all for watching. Be sure to like, subscribe, and share this content with everyone you know. Let's try and get to 5,000 subscribers by the end of this year. I found my Patreon Discord server in my Instagram, and I'll see you guys next time.