 We're all very welcome. We have a very distinguished speaker and we're all very much looking forward to his presentation, Dr Christophe Frye, but before he addresses you I'm going to ask Paul Mulvaney from the ESB and we want to say again, I want to say again to record our gratitude and thanks to the ESB for their generous support and sponsorship for this event and for another lecture, another talk we had some weeks back. Your support is always very important to us and we want to mark that again and reflect that by asking Paul just to address you just for a few minutes. Paul Mulvaney. On behalf of ESB I'd like to welcome you all here today. We're co-hosting this lecture with the IEA. It's the second of two keynote lectures we're having in advance of a conference called Take Charge that's happening on the 23rd of November in the mansion house in the Round Room. So last month Dr Anna Mengeleini gave a very good lecture around the social aspects of smart grid and today Dr Frye who's Secretary of the World Energy Council is going to look at three different scenarios for the future of the global energy sector out in 2060 or out until 2060. So these scenarios are based on insights that he's gained over the last number of years working in the world energy council and for members of that council and he's just told us how frequently he travels around the world, 85 different countries he's been in so he's definitely got a great kind of base on which to base these theories. I suppose they're really all founded around the energy trilemma which is looking at energy equity which is really access I suppose to energy the environment and then energy security. So that kind of trilemma is something that we're very familiar with in ESB it's something that we deal with every day and our real focus is on leading a transition to a low carbon future while having affordable and secure electricity for everybody. So my own area in ESB I'm an Executive Director of Innovation so I lead a unit that's looking at all of these new technologies and looking at customer needs in the future looking at all of the elements of that trilemma and trying to bring sustainable low carbon electricity into society and for people to use that electricity particularly around the electrification of heat and transportation they're really key elements and they're really the only ways that Ireland is going to be able to meet its emissions targets is to decarbonise electricity and then electrify heat and transport. So we're looking at say all of those different areas and new technologies digital storage etc in that space. So for Ireland this is obviously a big issue and we have limited resources I suppose and looking at the national debt and the potential penalties that Ireland faces if we don't meet our emissions targets makes this a really kind of pertinent and very urgent issue for us in the country. In 2016 Ireland was ranked 20 out of 125 countries around this world energy trilemma so that's an acknowledgement I suppose that we are kind of getting to grips with it but there's an awful lot left to do. Just this year for ESB it's a proud year for us it's our 90th anniversary this year so it's 90 years since we opened the hydroelectric power station down in Ireland or Cushia so we've been in this game for a long time and I suppose we started with 100% renewable electricity and we've been on a journey and now we're going back again and so but it is it is a transition and it is a journey and it can't just happen overnight and everybody expects their lights to come on every time they flick the switch but they want it to be greener and greener all the time and affordable all the time so I think this will be at the heart of what Christof is going to speak about today. So just in terms of our speaker so Dr. Frey is Secretary-General of the World Energy Council that's a national network of leaders and practitioners promoting an affordable, stable and environmentally sensitive electricity system for the benefit of all so since joining the council in 2009 as priorities have been to mobilize international energy leaders and decision makers to work together towards building this sustainable energy future and I suppose a lot of the work is around policy making and the sporting the right kind of policies so he's recently joined the board of the energy blockchain focused energy web foundation which we had a bit of a chat about at dinner and my own belief is blockchain is going to be a huge disruptor in the energy industry and it's really going to give a lot of it really accommodate peer-to-peer trading I think which will really kind of socialize energy and democratize energy and will make in some cases the utilities less relevant but I think that's that's that's just a natural evolution of the way things are going to go on so before joining the word energy council Dr. Frey was senior director of at energy industries and policies at the world economic forum and a member of the world economics forum executive council from 2001 to 2009 previously held various positions as research fellow and lecturer at Swiss federal technical institute in Zurich and the San and Verlingen so Dr. Frey's work and publications have covered energy scenarios climate and labor market policy energy water nexus and the future of utilities as main focus has been to provide world decision makers with the necessary evidence base for high-level dialogue and really are supposed to address this energy dilemma or trilemma thank you very much for the very kind introduction what an honor to speak in such a privileged place and what I'd like to do in the next half hour or so is give you a sense of what we mean by the world energy council active in 100 countries but we mean by the grand transition grand energy transition and I think some of the questions that I just want to throw in I hope I will feed some elements that help you better or consider them in a different way one of the one of the issues that I just want to throw in upfront if we are talking about things like blockchain or renewables etc first instinct is democratization does this mean less or more geopolitics it's probably one one thing to adjust them you know to put your mind around as another thing is obviously we speak about we come from an industry where 50 percent of capital worldwide is sunk in energy and energy close infrastructure can you turn this around is leap frog impossible in that area you know is that kind of is massive change possible is another another question one can ask and obviously how do you handle innovation in a place that is so you know so it is such a big steamer how do you handle innovation what happens if you don't and so those are a few of the things typical questions we get from from our stakeholder be that policy stakeholder or sector stakeholders and we develop our scenarios and our thinking to help support we can't give the answers but we help certainly support the signals capturing we have an amazing access to signals in a hundred countries and three thousand organizations our members and and help us with signals and we then obviously hope to work with many of you on innovation on policy strategies etc now first what I'd like to do is just briefly present what we mean by our three scenarios and I I'm gonna you know just that you have an intuitive way to play yourself you know with with the word that wording that we are using we have three scenarios and when we say scenarios it's clean out road mapping it's not forecasting scenarios are there if you're in the business you're in policy making we try and and open up the future in what is the plausible space of futures that we can imagine based on the signals we see today and then within those within this funnel for you to then consider you know your strategies be that policy or business strategies are you going to survive are you going to strive in those kind of in this space and if not how do you have to rethink that's really the the objective of scenarios we have spanned out the space of plausible future with those three scenarios the first one is what we call a jazz scenario jazz jazz is defined by rhythm rhythm is obviously the the fundamental thing of jazz and what we refer to are the rhythm here is effective market mechanisms not only national but also international effective market mechanisms so that the best instrument the best technology can play its solo in a wonderful way so this jazz world is all about bringing it to the consumer cheap and now that's what the jazz world is characterized so effective market mechanism is the consumer who wants achievement now at the forefront of decision making the second world is is is different the difference the main difference is you have a director you have a the unfinished symphony has a director somebody who is in charge who actually has a public good interest in his mind climate change and says i know kind of how to get there markets i don't fully trust the markets i know which technology will help us get there so i'm going to pick and choose some technology technologies think of immobility despite them being slightly more expensive but i know they will be better etc and therefore i'm going to beat the market by choosing them so symphony has this public good interest and kind of this visionary character of a policymaker but we may not always end up with the cheapest solution that's probably the the unfinished symphony world and key to that world is obviously carbon agreement carbon agreement cop the paris post paris follow-up is absolutely essential to the unfinished symphony then the third is the hard rock scenario and to describe this one let me go back to the other two the first scenario what we describe as a jazz the rhythm we all know markets have frameworks do not fall from sky and neither nationally nor internationally if we if we do not put muscle in there there you know trade barriers build up almost by themselves and kind of the the stopping market sphere from being effective that almost builds up so you have to put muscle in there to have effective technology to to be able to change to trade the most effective technology takes muscle think of sign Chinese solar cells how easy is it to build up a trade barrier to not let them in as an example now it takes equally muscle to build up a carbon framework we all know how hard that is now the third scenario is one where we do neither put muscle into the trade nor in the carbon in the carbon framework so it's an inward focused more kind of nationalistic fragmented world where we emphasize own resources including coal many countries have own resources call it can be renewable as well but we will not get to the cheapest technology because we have trade barriers local content requirements etc and that is the third scenario that we're describing i'm gonna just leave those hang you know you know in the room for for a moment and and lead you through what we mean by grand transition but at the end come back what actually in the grand transition what it means in terms of of those scenarios now grand transition i'm going to describe the grand transition with really four pieces first a contextual one and then three pieces that are three fundamental driving forces within the industry first context context and i'm gonna always look back 45 years and then look forward 45 years and compare what is different 45 years back we have doubled world population over the past 45 years over the next 45 years we are only going to add in the mid scenario that's by the un that's not our scenario to un is plus 40 percent so we lose 60 percent of population growth why is that important over the last 45 years it obviously links back to GDP how over the past 45 years we have multiplied global GDP by a factor 4.4 that translates into an annual growth rate of 3.5 per year half of that 1.7 percent comes from came from labor market growth 1.7 percent if you take out 60 percent of 1.7 you take out 1 percent out of 3.5 percent average growth that means basically the losing 60 percent of population growth comes down to losing 1 percent of GDP growth unless we catch up on the productivity side and we all know that's not a given so there is a risk that we lose on the growth side simply because we slow down population growth and that in a context where we have accelerated decoupling energy from GDP we have on average we have multiplied energy with a factor 2.6 over past 45 years that means annual average 1.1 decoupling of energy from GDP we last year published with the UN sustainable energy for all that decoupling was 2.6 so 2.1 excuse me 2.1 percent with the 2.6 percent being the objective that means we have accelerated the decoupling of energy from GDP now why am I losing so much why am I disturbing you with so many numbers to make the point the take those three together slowing down population possible slowing down GDP with an accelerating decoupling of energy from GDP we end up in the question well when is demand going to peak demand not supply and that is a first contextual big difference going forward than in compares where you're coming from now adds to that well we all know demand is moving from west to east you know China is going to be the biggest economy by 2030 India is going to beat in terms of population and China by in the by 2030 some say already today has happened depending on which statistics you consider Africa is the fastest growing in terms of population growth continent and we know that institutions are changing post world war one institutions were stretch strong or relatively strong and we have with what we have seen they haven't really got you know WTO it's a long time since they have to have their last success moment etc the same is true UN is struggling in a number of areas and so this institutions are really going to play a stronger role in the next 45 years I have to stop here but just shortly the key point is population growth is different the demand centers are different regional at the global governance context maybe we can that's a different context going forward than looking backwards first point now let me go into the into the three driving forces I'm going to start with the decarbonization is the first time for some kind of quickly give the three driving force but then dive into each of them decarbonization innovation independently from decarbonization and the third one is resilience also an innovation driver so all of those three innovate drive innovation but I would say let's start with the decarbonization first over the past 45 years we have decarbonized on average with 1% per year in order to achieve the two degree Celsius objectives we have to accelerate to 6% per year decarbonization of GDP and I can already see a few a few faces going wow that's never going to happen well if it's not going to happen we have a problem and that is obviously the issue here it's not evolution we're talking about revolution here huh this is big this is not small let me give you another number to illustrate that let's look at for at our carbon budget what does carbon budget mean it means how much CO2 are we allowed to emit to not exceed the two degrees Celsius limit a thousand gigatons a thousand gigatons we are allowed to emit to not exceed now let's add up all the known resources coal oil gas and see how much we actually have in terms of known resources today it's 2,800 gigatons of equivalent CO2 2,800 we are allowed to emit only 1,000 gigatons so we have a factor 2.8 more in known resources that we are than we are allowed to to to burn and emit now okay there is CCS carbon capture and storage to put away the CO2 dream on you know dream on let's dream off again it's not going to happen to the extent you would need it we do not see the signals for CCS to deliver a substantive part today into that gap clearly not so the choice is twofold either we burn more than we can and we heat up or you know we don't burn it and what is that it's stranded resources now let's come back to the question I've asked in the beginning you know the geopolitics etc question not burning resources that we know today it's not going to be easy at least not for those countries who have already you know thought they can sell that stranded resources and we have spoken about the factor 2.8 is a massive geopolitical driver obviously you know you can imagine what it means we can have a long discussion about what it means for future oil prices and mechanics underneath that but the long story short clearly there's geopolitics behind that issue if we have stranded resources we have to work on the regional and global politics to handle that very important I think I leave it with that for the for the carbon story so it's from 1% to 6% not evolution but revolution and the factor 2.8 more resources than we have than what we can burn let's go to the second innovation the innovation independent even from the decarbonization I'm going to mention three keywords here first is electrification of final demand we with our scenario see independently of the scenario roughly a doubling of electricity supplying final demand needs between now and the next within the next 45 years independently of the scenario roughly a doubling so we are gonna and that's true is it immobility we are you know electrification of final demand everywhere is that heat you think of the heat pump is that is that even in industrial production steel we are talking about steel through electricity than rather than coal etc you look you want to go check out where you want you see electrification efforts so if you have a combination of electrification electricity is the new oil and look what happens behind with decentralization and digitalization obviously the renewable side being co-driver of that then you know what is the space of innovation here it's big now let me quickly show our issue survey this is unpublished it's not yet the full response but it's reasonably robust already for this year and what it shows is yeah I've explained over lunch have you have we give no cheating allowed we give you 40 cluster terms and 40 themes only 40 with which you can summarize energy think what those themes are they include things like climate change they include things like digitalization like cyber security like obviously the the regional policy aspects market aspects etc and then we go out with those 40 terms every year to to our constituents worldwide and ask them tell us about impact uncertainty on time frame are those to keep me awake at night issues are are those the issues that keep you busy at work etc and we get an agenda every single year now here's what this agenda tells if you look over the past five years look at you know first we are coming from a sector that doesn't really move right 50 percent of global capital investment can't move that rapidly but look how CEOs administer a thousand three hundred and ninety countries have responded over the past five years those are digitalization electric storage market design decentralized system renewables coming from back bank type of issue to the forefront and center type of issues I think this in itself should tell a story about the energy transition let's quickly dive into the digitalization we have done a deep dive in digitalization in four areas we looked at internet of things and blockchain as one area we looked at the whole big data predictive supply chain management etc as a second type of area we looked at the mobile cloud financing mechanism type of area and we looked at general platform business model type of areas and you see that those issues all of them a have gone the whole digitalized have come up and internet of things is probably the number one critical uncertainty for energy leaders globally today now i'm just throwing those things at you and you probably are a little puzzled you know hell what is that gonna do to us i'm gonna dive in in a bit greater depth the short story is those things again three or four years ago five years ago were not on the agenda and today you know who is not busy with them let me give you just a few examples of what we see in different countries on the top of the innovation agenda been in chile a couple of weeks back and this year's auction in chile they beat they have competition with the moroccan and the mirati on the lowest solar price this year's auction price in chile was 29 per megawatt hour however they already say for next year it's gonna be 20 for megawatt hour so another crash by a third of the price within 18 months basically they expect it's not been done yet but that's everybody i've spoken to a number of the sake they are preparing for the 20 dollar per that's one example let's look blockchain we have seen first pilots why who is familiar with blockchain who who who has already within business activity or policy activity actively dealt with blockchain hand up it's a minority it's obviously a minority i'm not surprised now let me quickly make an intuitive case of blockchain and then this is just illustration of one pilot there's um you know there's hundreds of pilots out there there is dozens of start up almost daily an energy blockchain start up is is being built by the way a good to policy makers you know it's you don't build a blockchain startup anywhere you only build it where the regulation allows it to do it bracket closed so worthwhile spending some time on that as policy makers i said that you know in switzerland as well very happy a lot of startups are in switzerland i don't claim anything there but we have first what is blockchain everybody's talking about storage now the question one question we can ask should we in do we need physical storage or are there possibly other things that we could leverage here let me give you one example everybody has a fridge right now your fridge has probably is a hundred watts i takes a hundred what to um uh to operate your fridge and your fridge you're probably happy if your fridge is within you know plus minus two degrees huh plus minus two degrees um you know you don't really care if it's uh you know if it remains that arranged if you give away like you know in an uberized world you give away the management of those um you know of of this temperature difference in such a way that somebody can switch off your fridge when the electricity demand is high and switch it on when it's uh low you know that and you know do that for one fridge it doesn't make a difference to that for a million fridge of a hundred watt that's actually a hundred megawatt and you don't do it for a hundred fridge um uh only you do it for the heaters water heaters you include the storage of your car you etc etc etc and suddenly have gigawatt for for a million people you have suddenly kind of gigawatt hours of um virtual storage in your system how can you harvest that blockchain is one of those technologies that actually can give you a possibility to harvest that type of sector coupled um storage that is already there that nobody has to spend money for except obviously for the enabling now i'm gonna leave the blockchain we can have a long discussion about blockchain but just as a as a example blockchain is nothing else as enabling you know much more interaction controlled interaction in the system in such a way that you can leverage the system into a much deeper way now quick word on immobility you know we have obviously heard that France and the UK have said um out of diesel and gasoline by 2040 and if i i'm not going to take a survey now and who believes you know i'm not gonna put anybody on the wall but i've done it in other places and the answer was quite clear so who's going to believe who's going to trust the government and usually the answer is kind of only halfway um if at all however let's quickly go a step further now China we have heard is it six weeks ago the the vice minister of um industry and um information technology in China has has said well actually we are looking at this as well we are looking at exiting um diesel and gasoline gasoline now if we are half hearted convinced that uh France and UK and by the German government uh the German parliament has also started discussing it but if if we are hesitating to believe it's going to happen there let's quickly think through China China has no conventional industry in the motor uh manufacturing huh so whereas Germany France UK can lose a lot of employment here China can't really but it could possibly have a competitive position in e-mobility it already today produces BYD as a standalone Chinese company produces more electric cars than tesla today already it has the objective to take out pollution out of cities more so than the climate objective but that is obviously something electric vehicles can do it has all kind of other industrial kind of opportunity think of the it goes hand in hand with the renewable strategy that the China has China has a number of exactly the right drivers and motivations to say this is actually not just a policy a nice to have objective it's actually a competitive advantage objective so i would personally expect that China is going to announce something at least as aggressive than we have heard from from France and UK and you know i i i'm actually looking monitoring media for that now what if China does it and we are within our scenario saying transport is the most difficult sector to transition because of the employment issue because of the personal consumer choice issue etc but if China does it then Germany and all the others who have their biggest market in China have to run very quickly to not miss a train what does it mean for France and UK my question in the just before that suddenly sounds much more serious right and well that's China Europe other asian may follow north america not as clear canada may be interested they have already e-mobility quite substantial efforts today i think the rest of north america to be seen etc latin america starts likes a lot biofuels but they flirt also with the e-mobility so suddenly you can have a dramatic you know leverage of change if china does this you know the transport will will look different and again what does this do to peak oil not peak supply peak demand the biggest consumer of oil is transport so here's a let me take another innovation example and it's so we had the block chains we had the solar we had the transport question we have the rural one of the biggest rural access electricity access one of the biggest challenges we have 1.1 billion people without access to electricity it's the number is going down great news but it's harder to get it down in the rural space 86 percent of 1.1 billion are in rural areas and you know you know the question is probably rural what does it mean it's not 10 kilometers away from the next infrastructure pop it's 100 kilometers or more away from that next infrastructure hub for most of those people so how do you can you leapfrog in any way can you leapfrog in energy no way right now what has happened over the past and this is also five years or so you have a number of startups who do the incredible they actually deliver to this family this family lives from two to three dollars per day two to three dollars now two to three dollars 80 cents of which is used for kerosene for the lamp huh and other similar kind of energy 80 cents of two to three dollars going to kind of you know that's quite it's a lot of money huh now what this family suddenly has here you can see a television a radio a cell phone charging which by the way I can charge the the cell phone of the neighbor makes some money from a lamp there's a solar cell that you cannot see up there the batteries here as well and there's somewhere in the there's even an iron an iron to do the ironing because the the smart entrepreneurs have seen that one of the first other than those electronic devices was actually an iron interesting now how much you think that system costs it's all high you cannot buy pieces individually buy it as a package it costs three hundred dollars everything together highly optimized DC high efficiency um components three hundred dollars can you buy that as a two to three dollar household no way can you lease it well let's quickly think through 40 cents a day if the internal rate of return is very small which those entrepreneurs they look at zero point zero one percent internal rate of return or similar 40 cents a day makes you own that system after two to three years good deal right so suddenly when you can ship those amazon it comes down to shipping the plug and play amazon boxes out to those households which is sounds suddenly like leapfrogging in a similar way as we have seen without need for central infrastructure the only thing you it takes is actually bringing those boxes to the households now and obviously the payment comes with the cell phones cell phones are there already everybody has a cell phone now the question is what does this do innovation wise obviously brings you know there's a 1.1 billion customer base potentially you know think of the storage and solar cell probably there you know let's not even focus on that the smart meter there's a smart meter in there a smart meter that's actually through broadband brings back the you know the signals of consumption etc to to the owner that smart meter cannot cost 150 dollars as yours it costs two dollars huh think about the learning curve again so learning curves i'm gonna quickly jump i have the sign for we're getting the end but i come to the third driver first driver decarbonization second driver innovation think of all those areas that are moving all at the same time and the third driver is really you have seen it here as well he had a hurricane recently is the extreme weather events energy water nexus cyber so new physical and virtual risks that hit us in a different way than in the past i'm just going to give for the sake of time one example this is the number of events extreme weather events over the past 45 years factor four up does this look like ceiling doesn't look like ceiling to me so if it's still going to go up let's quickly think what that means 45 years back you were asked to build something that should be resilient term that was not perhaps used in the same way back then but you know did you plan for the margin it took to survive a factor four in extreme weather events well if you did you were certainly fired huh you were certainly fired now let's quickly fast forward today there's no ceiling there are you planning for the factor four over the next 45 years for something well if you are you're fired as simple as that that's the reality today so how do you handle this factor four in a good way and we have started collecting many many case studies of how people actually do the things and it's it starts from public procurement over designing the things in a different way the shortest story i can give is the following love fountain has actually described it to us he said we built you know if you're building an oaks and we have built oaks in the energy system if you're building oaks if they go down well they stay down they stay down you build them stronger so they can't go down well factor four stronger you cannot afford to do right but if you build the read if you build them like read you know yes they go down to read is going down too but it stands up by itself after a stone because it's locally empowered may have black starting capability it has possibly local financing solutions that do not need to go through a long wind as a public procurement processes when bringing things back etc etc so this this read solution is part of the resilient thinking and rethinking the system in such a way that it actually yes it's going to go down but it has it will be coming up more rapidly again so this is in short when we speak about the ground transition different context three drivers decarbonization from one to six percent not evolution but revolution the factor two point eight in more emissions we have seen the innovation electrification supported by decentralization digitalization we have seen the space of innovation there is and then on the resilience side the whole question about from from the oak to the reeds the from hard resilience to soft resilience how you how you do that now i've promised to close by simply bringing it back to the the scenarios if i may if i have enough time to do that um when we judge the scenarios and i cannot i'm not even going to lead through the results but perhaps just one we see things like peak oil not peak supply peak demand in the 30s coal essentially has peaked now except for the hard rock scenario gas we don't see peak before the mid-century because it helps bridge for now but as of the mid mid of century it's really uncertain even for gas and you know if you look quickly at the scenarios and we judge them by our trilemma the trilemma that was mentioned in the beginning the trilemma is basically our judgment we're saying if we have a good balance between energy security the energy equities of affordability and access and the environment climate and local pollution side if we have those three in good balance because sometimes not always they compete and wherever they compete we need to keep them in balance we cannot afford to neglect one because that means a new government will be elected and the next government will do it every will do everything different and we know what that is called that has a name it's policy risk and all the investors will run away if you have it so it doesn't help the transition so therefore we are saying to keep those three at all times in balance is the best objective you can have an energy policy now let's quickly see how well the scenario is performing that first gas you know reasonably well balanced reasonably well balanced and actually big so relatively good performance best performer in energy access sounds logical because we we said you know bring it to the consumer cheap and now and the rural entrepreneurship model that you have seen with 0.01 percent of internal rate of return just guess what it does if uh if some a government locally decides to add a little bit of admin hurdle or a local content requirement or an import duty the business model is dead it's not going to happen so in jazz those barriers are not building up and therefore deliver best to the to the rural group now symphony the unfinished symphony delivers best in terms of the climate agreement but we unfinished symphony because even with with our latest scenario we are not yet seeing even with unfinished symphony to get the to-degree climate objective bracket open every time we redo our scenarios we getting a step closer and i'm a technology optimist the reason why we are having every time step closer is because innovation is just faster than what we can imagine and we are not able to imagine the speed of imagination that's the reason why we we are always beaten by the reality so i would actually say that symphony is the closest and it's getting probably closer than what we are saying today but it's more expensive and more expensive means that the the most deprived they have the toughest job to still to a pay for for electricity energy and have access to more expensive solutions now let's look at hard rock hard rock is the one we really do not like and i think it's a key message hard rock so not doing the trade that allows getting the best technology cheaply to wherever it has to go doesn't do us the service not doing the climate agreement and not doing both of those is clearly the worst outcome because it makes everything more expensive more dirty and less secure why well the simple story is if you have local content that's great it's great to have local content but if it makes your technology more expensive less people can afford it if you impose local technology and local resources well that's great as well but it may actually be more dirty and we cannot afford more dirty in the climate context and therefore the more dirty more expensive and why the less secure well less secure again first of all if you if you shut if you don't trust your neighbor you have to do it yourself and that may not always be the most secure solution but think also of a of a post-Brexit and if if the UK has to build up its own nuclear safety agencies that really step into greater safety i'm not saying it's the opposite but it certainly doesn't help the communication etc and harmonization efforts so for all of those reasons at back we are saying hard rock is the one future we do not like i'm going to conclude i think i've i've said in the beginning look at things like is and perhaps there are some answers how you know what does it mean the grand transition in terms of is energy getting more political less political i think with the with the stranded resources while we are talking about democratization of energy let's not fool ourselves it's going to be much harder policy context geopolitical etc and we have to be ready to to handle that i i've said you know the innovation side is so much obviously that that is going on i think that the shortest message we can give is well innovation is actually exciting if you're not doing it if you're not taking care of it you can be sure somebody else built thank you very much