 We've all heard stories of 20 and 30 year old kids who can't afford to buy a house and even can't afford to rent and are moving back in with their parents. This isn't happening because young people have suddenly gotten lazy. Monthly mortgage payments for home buyers are up 20% just in the last year and that's because interest rates have doubled. Meanwhile, the cost of the average home has gone from $250,000 to $400,000 just since 2019. Hey, what's up everybody? So this is RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who's running for president. This is his answer to the housing crisis and the unaffordability, unaffordability as at all time high. There's, it's never been a harder time to buy a home in terms of the monthly mortgage payments than it is right this second. So let's watch the rest of this video. What his answer is to this problem, this crisis that we have going on right now in the country. And then I'm going to come back and give you my thoughts, feedback, commentary as well as a quick little market update kind of get you up to date with the trends and new listings and prices and all that stuff. So let's tune back in. And those higher home prices have also driven up the cost of rent. So now Americans are paying a third of their income for rent. That's the highest ratio since records were kept. So what's happening? Well, what's happening is Black Rock, State Street and Bank are these giant corporations which own 88% of the S&P 500 are going into real estate. These investment firms swoop in as soon as the house comes on the market. They outbid prospective home buyers with cash offers. They add that property, their investment portfolio, and then they rent it back to you or your children at the most exorbitant rate that the market can bear. So how can our kids or the typical American homeowner win a bidding war with Black Rock? By 2030, these giant corporations are on track to own 60% of the single family homes in our country. So Black Rock wants to be everybody's landlord and everybody's neighbor, but I'm not going to let that happen. When I get to the White House, I'm going to restore affordable home ownership to every American and I'm going to do that without raising the national debt. And here's how I'm going to accomplish that feat. I'm going to create a federal program that backs mortgages at 3% financed by tax free bonds. These mortgages are going to be available to people only, not corporations. This will drop mortgage payments by more than $1,000 a month for a medium priced home and allow your children to outcompete Black Rock in the market. So here's how it works. Imagine that you had a rich uncle who was willing to go sign your mortgage. Well, I'm going to make Uncle Sam that rich uncle. It's not a giveaway, it's a loan guarantee that makes that property affordable to millions of Americans who cannot now afford it. This is just one of the policies that the Kennedy administration will deploy to create millions of new home buying opportunities at payments of less than $1,000 a month. We're also going to change the tax code to get corporations out of the single family home market and we're going to work with municipalities to get empty lots and derelict homes back into circulation at low prices. As president of the United States, I'm going to create a housing boom in this country the same way that we did it after World War II when we made home ownership affordable for working people. Okay, so that was super interesting. His thoughts on how we're going to reverse this and make houses and homes more affordable for people who can't afford them in this crisis that we're in. So I thought a few things that he said was super interesting. Number one, Black Rock. I don't know that they're on track to own 60% of the single family homes in America by 2030. Maybe I'm wrong, but I know this year Black Rock along with many other of these big investment firms that have been buying up and snatching up single family homes have pulled back a lot. They're not buying hardly near as much as they was before. And so I don't know that they're on track still. They may have been at one point, but here's the thing. At the end, he said it all, right? Getting tax code that creates such a situation where these companies don't ask all you want to be in the single family home business. Bingo, that's what needs to happen and that's what's going to happen. Definitely. It may have to get to a certain level, but the country is not going to let these entities own all the homes in America. It's just not going to happen. And a lot of people are scared about this or like, what about Black Rock and some of these other companies coming in and owning all the single family homes and everybody's going to have to be renters and, you know, we're not going to be able to own anything because we can't compete with them and all this. It's just, there's not going to let it happen. I believe that in my soul that that's just something that's just not even an issue. Them coming into the market and creating competition, that's okay for now because even the amount of properties they own is not a lot, right? It's a lot when you think about, oh, if I own that much, that would be a lot. But in the terms of the entire housing market of 100 million homes that's in the country, it's not a whole lot of homes that they actually own. And so I don't think that that's anything to worry about. I think he's using that as, hey, and it's a good move by him, you know, like, hey, this is an issue. We've got these big corporations coming in here and competing and snatching up these homes and not allowing you to buy them, then turning around and renting them to you. You know, BlackRock got in the game right after the last crash, 2008, 19, 11, and it's what we all should have been doing. We all should have been snatching up as much property as we could back then. But, you know, we didn't know I would have been doing a lot more to secure more property back then. But, hey, I learned my lessons and I'm doing it now. I'm out here buying properties every single month and I'm looking for deals all the time. I just got off the phone with the county asking about a five-acre piece that I put under contract to build an apartment complex. So, anyway, nevertheless, I'm doing the same thing in my own regard on a very, very small level. But nevertheless, I believe that he's on the right track there to put tax codes in place that prevent this from getting out of control, which is not really out of control yet, in my opinion, nowhere close. Now, moving on to, you know, getting our mortgage payments down to $1,000, I think he said, you know, 3% mortgage rates backed by tax-free bonds. Now, I don't believe that this, I think this is what the American people want to hear. I don't think this would be the best for the market because if you did that and unleashed that into the public, now, it would depend on what the requirements were. I'm sure there's going to be a lot of fine print. You have to be such a, you know, such a low amount of income. The house has to be a certain price, you know, a lot like Zillow and Rocket Mortgage and United Mortgage, United Wholesale who came out and they're doing these 1% downloads. You know, there's a lot of fine print there about how you get approved for those. So, if it's going to be something like that, where, you know, it limits the amount of people who can actually take advantage of that, I think that would be okay. But then that doesn't solve the problem, right? Because then, you know, the average American can't go out. It's going to have to be somebody basically below average to go out and take advantage of this product. So, that's not really going to solve the problem. If you do make it to where the average American and it goes widespread and a lot of people have access to this loan product, then it's going to absolutely crush the market in terms of prices. Prices are going to go to the moon. Why? Because there's no inventory number one. So, you're going to unleash tons of buyers into a no inventory. No. I'm going to say no inventory. It is this low to no inventory environment and, you know, supply and demand. People are going to be fighting over homes. They're going to be able to pay more because their mortgage rate's going to be 3%. And it's going to make prices skyrocket if that happens. I would love to see instead an answer to the inventory problem. Builders are doing all they can do and they've actually pulled back a little bit because it's tougher to get construction loans right now. We're also seeing that in the multifamily sector. We're down month over month in terms of multifamily starts right now due to how tough it is to go out there and get these construction loans. But, you know, the new construction and builders are doing all they can do. They haven't been able to keep up with the inventory needed for a decade and a half. Um, but it's crazy because a third of the sales right now are new construction. That's the highest that they've ever recorded. And it's because existing homeowners won't sell. Now, there's a lot of existing homeowners who want to sell. I talk to them all the time. I mean, agents, agents will tell me, hey, we're in our house for, you know, 2.8%, 3.1%. We really want to move. We've outgrown this house, but we can't. We can't move from a 3.1 into a 7% mortgage or even a 6.5% mortgage. We just can't do it. It just doesn't make any sense. We're just going to rough it. And I think a lot of existing homeowners right now are roughing it. They don't like the home that they're in or maybe they like it, but they've just outgrown it. They need more space. I went and talked to one of my bankers yesterday. They're in a four-bedroom. They need a five-bedroom, right? They bought the four-bedroom a couple of years ago, but since then they've had triplets and they need more room. But he said, I can't move. As much as I would love to. And when they bought that house, he said, this was our dream home. This is where we're going to be forever. And but now they don't, they don't want the house because they need a bigger place, but they can't move. There's so many Americans in this situation where they want to, but they can't. And if we could put a policy in place, what I would love to have heard from RFK is, hey, I'm going to put this policy in place. It's going to unlock inventory. It's going to create an incentive for existing homeowners to go out, put their home on the market and, and, and, you know, upgrade to the home that they really want. That would do two things. It would unlock some inventory. Now it wouldn't unlock. Active listings would go down in this scenario, okay? Because new listings, there would be more new listings. New listings would shoot up, but active listings would go down. And here's why. When the trade-up seller puts their home on the market, they're also taking a home off the market when they upgrade and buy their new home. So that's a net even for active listings. It's up for new listings, but it's active listings are net even. And then you have first-time home buyers who come in and buy the home that they put on the market, okay? So then that, that subtracts. They're not adding a home to the market. They're just coming in as a first-time home buyer and just subtracting a home from the market. Now you're at a net negative with that buyer. And there's not really a scenario where there's a net positive, okay? It's like they're all trade-up sellers or they're first-time home buyers. There's really nobody that are just putting homes on the market, you know, like, you know, if we could see a bunch of second homes hit the market, that would be great. You know, I mean, let's create an incentive for that. You know, can we create an incentive for people to put their vacation a second home on the market or, you know, or even investment properties, right? Investment properties that they own, you know, here's an incentive for you to sell that investment property to a primary homeowner. You know, I'm not here to try to solve the world's problems with this. I'm just saying that if we do what RFK said, and we introduced 3% mortgage rates to the market without addressing the inventory issue, man, prices are going to skyrocket from where they are now. I mean, jump big. And again, it depends on what he's talking about with the product. Is it going to be available to a limited amount of people or more widespread? So there's still a lot of questions with what he's saying and how all this would lay out. But give me your thoughts on the comments of what you think this would do to the market and, you know, what do you think needs to be addressed here because this unaffordability issue is massive. This is the worst that it's ever been as long as we've been collecting data on this. And it's a big issue. You know, I've been a bull on the market the entire time in terms of prices. I've said that we're going to hit, you know, 2008 levels in terms of transactions. I've said that for a while. You know, I know transactions were going to be lower, but I didn't see how prices could necessarily go lower with everybody sitting on great mortgages, great mortgage rates, highly regulated mortgages, people who have the ability to repay no bad loans, right? Delinquencies are literally the lowest they've been since 1979. We're in such a healthy market when it comes to that. I didn't see a place where prices would come down. You know, the big difference in 2008 and now is 2008, there were 4 million homes on the market. And there was just nobody wanted to buy that the demand was so low. This is the exact opposite. It's like if there were more inventory, we would have more transactions, right? There's no doubt. If we had more inventory, we would have more transactions because that's part of the problem too for the trade-up seller that don't have any where to buy. You know, it's like, you know, I don't want to move into 7% mortgage rates, but even if I did, where am I going to go? There's nothing for sale. So, you know, that's the big difference is, yeah, we have less demand than we had, but if we had more inventory, we would have more transactions because there is enough demand to support more inventory right this second. But that's not the case. We've got around 500,000 to 600,000 active listings. And back in 2008, we had 4 million, right? And just to give some context, back in the 80s, in the 80s, we had 2 to 3 million at any given time, 2 to 3 million in the 80s. And now we have 5 to 600,000, just to give context, you know, from where we are through history. We are at rock bottom, especially when you factor in the growth of population and the number of homes in America. So, yeah, I was a bull on prices. And I'm still a bull on prices. Even with unaffordability, there's really nowhere for prices to go. We're kind of in this new norm. And I believe what will happen to ease affordability are mortgage rates, a lot what RFK is saying. Mortgage rates tend to follow inflation. If you look at a chart of inflation, actually, I'll show you a chart right here. Let me pull up a chart right here. I'll show you. This is an interesting, interesting chart. Let's see. This is keeping current matters. Where is it at? Right here. Look at this. So, the blue is inflation, and the green is the 30-year fixed. And everybody knows this by now. And I hope you know this by now, that the 30-year fixed tends to follow inflation. It's very correlated to inflation and the 10-year treasury. It's all kind of correlated together. The 30-year fixed can lag, though. See, back here, it lagged a little, coming down. Then it did, and then inflation. And here we are, you see the blue. The inflation has come way down from where it was, right? And 30-year fixed have lagged it up. And we've kind of hung around in the 7s for a while. It hasn't really gotten into the 8s. At all. But inflation is coming down. You see how quickly it's coming down. When you look at this chart, it kind of illustrates it really nicely. It's coming down quick. We know mortgage rates are soon to follow. So, well, that's going to help with affordability a lot. Now, prices are also going to continue to rise. I think with the combination of household incomes continuing to increase along with mortgage rates coming down, I think we're going to solve a lot of the affordability issue. I also believe that we can only go so far before prices start to just go sideways for a while and level out. And I think if we have a combination of prices leveling out, mortgage rates coming down, household incomes coming up, I think that we're going to get to a place where we're in a better spot when it comes to affordability. Morningstar came out and said that in 2020, you know, 4, 5, and 6, that mortgage rates would come down considerably over the next three years and really help this unaffordability situation. So, only time will tell there. Let's get back to here to some of this data. Let's see. What else did I want to show you guys? Oh, this was interesting to a 2023 year-end home price forecast. So, this was interesting. Everybody's, you know, adjusting their forecast to be positive this year instead of negative. They started out the year negative. You know, MBA started out minus 0.6%. Now they're basically zero. Fannie Mae said we were going to be down 1.5%. Now they're saying we're going to be up 3.9. Morgan Stanley said we'd be down 4%. Now they're saying we'll be even. American Enterprise Institute said we'd be down 15% to 20% this year. Now they're saying we'll be up 6%. That's a big swing. Zilla said we'd be basically even. Now they're saying we're going to end the year 5.5% up. And this is home prices, just national home prices. Wells Fargo said we'd be down 5.5%. Now they're saying we'd be up 2.2%. Goldman Sachs said we'd be down 5% to 10%. Now they're saying we'll be up 1.8. And Home Price Expectation Survey said we'd be down over 2%. Now they're saying we'll be up over 3%. Just interesting stuff to see all these big institutions changing up their tune. Now look at this. New listings. New listings. You see this trend right here? This is interesting to me because for the past two years, we see that new listings drop off this time of year. Right about here at the end of July or so. New listings coming on the market tend to just drop like a rock this time of year. Well, look what it's doing this year. It's basically sideways. Even right here, going back to May and stuff, it tends to go down normally. It's literally going sideways and especially over the last 30-ish days. Look at that. And it went from at the very peak we were down 27%, 27.5% right there. 27.5% new listings hitting the market. And now we've closed that gap down to just 4% year over year of new listings hitting the market. So there's a chance. It could just start to kind of dip from there. But it looks like there's a chance we could go positive year over year in terms of new listings hitting the market, which would be great to kind of see that. It's really happening for no reason because interest rates are still where they are. But let's look at active listings. At a time when things are going sideways, active listings that are actively for sale, now they're coming down. We went from 16.7% year over year to now 18.7%. So 2% less over the last, say, 30 days in terms of active listings on the market. So it kind of goes along with what I'm saying. The trade-up seller adds to the market, takes one off. The first-time home buyer takes one off. And I think that's a trend that we're going to see big time. And it's why I think we're going to see less active listings over the next few years. Like we're going to see, this is what I think is going to happen. When mortgage rates do start to ease, we're going to see a lot of transactions because people are going to put their home on the market and buy another one. So we're going to see transactions pick up. It's going to be like 2021 where there wasn't a whole lot of inventory at any given time. But there were 6 million transactions. Well, why? Well, that's because people are putting their home on the market and taking another one off. So there's a lot of transactions happening. It's going to be a great time for agents. But we're going to see active listings go down. I wouldn't worry about that. There's nothing you can do about it. What I would do is make sure you're building your database to the point where everybody is coming to you when that rush happens. When mortgage rates start to ease, you want to be the one that created the most relationships in your market. Let's take a look at prices real quick. Median sells price. So, you know, right about here, I was saying, oh, we're going to go positive year over year. Right about here, I said, well, not only that, we're going to go to an all-time new high. And right now, we're sitting at 5% over last year at this time, you know, 12-month trailing. Now, we're up more than that when it comes to just for the year because we started at 348 medium home prices and now we're at 380. OK, so we're up quite a bit. We're up quite a bit, probably 10% or so for the year just on medium home prices in the entire country, according to Redfin here. Pending sales, trending about the same. And what I find so interesting are these peaks and troughs. You see how they're all very closely correlated? I mean, that is crazy right there how seasonal this business really is. When you look at home sold, you can really see it. Look at this. Look at 2021 and 22. The spikes and the peaks in the valleys. It's insane. I mean, it's just absolutely ridiculous. But again, right here, we're just kind of dwindling along. And guys, look, we are at 2008 levels when it comes to transactions. This is the crash, ladies and gentlemen. A crash doesn't mean it has to be about prices coming way down. Prices aren't going to go way down. And nothing in the data suggests that prices are going to come down. I could be wrong. And there could be some unforeseen thing that I'm missing. There could be a war that starts. There could be another pandemic. There could be something like that that happens just out of the blue that crushes things. But even in those situations, I don't see that happening because there has to be more supply than demand. And here is the facts, ladies and gentlemen. We are at rock bottom right now when it comes to who is buying and selling. The people buying and selling right now are people who have to buy and sell. There's some investors still buying. I'm one of them. But investors are going to buy also no matter what the market's doing. I'm going to buy no matter what the market's doing. If the market crashed right now and prices went down considerably, guess what I would be doing? Buying. So I'm buying now. I'm going to continue to buy. If prices go up, I'll still be buying. If prices come down, I'll still be buying. I'll be buying into cash flow. I'm looking for cash flow and properties that I want to add to my portfolio and keep forever. That's my strategy. But nevertheless, the people outside of investors who are buying and selling are buying and selling because they have to. Nobody wants to buy into a 6%, 7%, 8% interest rate. Nobody wants to sell out of their 4% mortgage rate unless they have to. And so it's my belief that we're down to the buyers and sellers who have to buy and sell. And guess what? They're not going anywhere. The people that have to buy and sell are going to buy and sell. And that train is always going to be running. So I believe we're at rock bottom when it comes to demand. In my opinion, it can't go any lower. We're down as low as 2008. And so 2008 was pretty. That was, I mean, that's a good gauge for how low this thing can really go. Could it get down under 4 million? One mere sure. Sure. How much further down? I don't believe very much because we're down to the bare bones of people who have to buy and sell. So that's where we're at. And if you really take a look at that statistic foundationally, fundamentally, we're in fantastic shape. And so if something happens unforeseen, right, I don't believe that prices are going to get hurt because the demand we have now isn't going anywhere. Those are people that have to buy and sell and they are keeping prices up because they're fighting over whatever inventory is there. Now, the only way prices are going to go down is if inventory just skyrockets. Well, where is that going to come from? A lot of people say from the black rocks, you know, the people who have all these properties, if they were to list these properties and all the, you know, how much money these companies are making on rent. It's ridiculous how much money they're making on rent. They're not about to sell those properties. And even if they were to go and sell those properties, I think that that would be some much needed inventory. We're at 500,000, 600,000 homes for sale. So if BlackRock went, let's see how many homes BlackRock owns. All right, let's do this together. All right, how many homes? Let's just see if it comes up. How many homes does BlackRock own? Owns about 80,000 homes. Okay, let's see of that 300. BlackRock as an investor owns about 80,000. Okay, let's open up this article. BlackRock is not running the market. Let's see. This is one article. Okay, here we go. US has roughly 140 million housing units. That includes, you know, mansions, tiny homes, apartments of all sizes. All right, of those 140 million, about 80 million are standalone single-family homes. Of those 80 million, about 15 million are rental properties. Of those 15 million single-family rentals, institutional investors own about 300,000. Okay, so what they're saying is is all institutional investors together own about 300,000 and the rest are owned by individual landlords. Of that 300,000. So of the 15 million single-family rentals, institutional investors own about 300,000. That's total all institutional investors. Most of the rest are owned by individual landlords. So 14.7 million. Of the 300,000, the real estate rental company Invitation Homes, which is BlackRock owned, BlackRock as an investor, owns about 80,000. Right, 80,000. So here we, so there's the numbers right there. 15 million rental properties in the US, right, out of the 140 million homes. 14.7 are owned by people like myself who buy these rental properties and, you know, just individuals. And 300,000 of the 15 million are owned by institutional investors and 80,000 of that is BlackRock. So even if every institutional investor put their home on the market and added all 300,000 at the same time, not spacing it out, at the same time, we'd have 300,000 more listings on the market. That would put us around, you know, 800, 900. We'd still be under a million. So before the pandemic, we had 1.2 million homes on the market. So we wouldn't even be back to pre-pandemic levels if all the institutional investors put all their properties on the market at the same time. It's not going to happen. That wouldn't happen in a million years. But even if it did, it would actually not even get us 50% between where we are now and where we were pre-pandemic. I mean, it would get us about 75%, which is halfway between where we are now and where we were pre-pandemic. So like I said, guys, nothing to worry about. I hope you got a lot out of this video. I hope you found something that you could comment below. Hit subscribe, smash the like button. Let me know what you thought. And I'll see you on the next video. Let's go.