 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network When I go in to fill out a bet slip for Major League Baseball I don't go in seeking out underdogs because in order to say I only want to bet underdogs You kind of to be saying the market inherently is undervaluing The underdogs on the money line in MLB games and to make that assertion essentially say it's essentially saying there's a big error in the market and With a market as liquid with as much action on it as MLB money lines I never want to make that assumption because I'm more likely to be wrong than the market is to be wrong It just so happens that for today I want to finding four money lines on underdogs that I liked and Does that make me feel super comfortable? No doesn't mean my odds of having a disastrous night where I go for four Pretty high. Yeah, I think that's definitely in play Again, our mindset that he is to try to find spots where we think the implied odds are Lower than what the actual odds are and for me that happens to be on four underdogs for tonight So we're gonna break down what those four underdogs are we'll go through one a strikeout prop as well Then talk through how to view a different strikeout prop in the market as well All right here for today over at Fandall Sportsbook welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire here to break down Wednesday nights 13 game slate Across major league baseball outlining my favorite bets relative to the markets over at fan dual sports But we're gonna dive into this slate here in just one second outline where I'm seeing value for tonight But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the covering the spread podcast He'd wherever you get your podcast. We had branding and doula on yesterday talking some golf We are breaking down in the rocket mortgage classic talk to brand events favorite outwrites non-outwrites for this week over at Fandall Check that out in the covering the spread podcast feed or the Fandall YouTube page or on the Fandall TV plus app on Amazon fire TVs Apple TV or Roku as well if you want to get up and Adams run it back Covering the spread and the solo shot all in one place make sure you download the Fandall TV plus app Baseball season is in full swing and there is no better place to get in on the action than Fandall America's number one sports book because right now new customers and get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 That's it to $1,000 back in bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win So don't miss your chance to snag a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 when you join Fandall today Fandall Official partner of Major League Baseball Major League Baseball trademarks used with permission must be 21 plus and present in select states First online a real money wager only $10 deposit required refund issued is non With drawable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt restrictions apply see full terms at fandall.com Sportsbook Fandall is offering online sports waging in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas star casino LLC gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fandall.com slash rg in Arizona 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 8 7 8 9 777 7 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1 809 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 1 805 2 2 4700 or in Kansas KS gambling health comm Louisiana's 1 877 770 stop in Massachusetts gambling helpline ma.org or 1 800 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in Maryland MD gambling help but org in New York 1 877 8 Hope and wire text open wide and in West Virginia go to 1 800 gambler net Let's dive in now to the MLB slate for tonight and begin with what I think is the best game on the slate That is between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the San Diego Padres the reason I love this game is because it's got Blake's now Taking on Mitch Keller and how can you hate on that? it's going to be an electric match between two very good pitchers and I do show value in the Pirates money line which is currently plus 136 over at Fandall sportsbook my model is high in Blake's now Which is why I have more confidence in taking the Pirates here because the snail Sentiment from the model is input into my money line model and it's a very high sentiment So when you take that plug it in and it still shows value on the opposing side That to me says the Pirates here are a bit undervalued I've got their win odds at 46.7 percent the implied win odds at plus 136 our 42.4 percent Keller Definitely has taken a slight step back from where he was earlier on this year But the underlying numbers are still really solid if you look at his past eight starts We've been throwing his slaughter more often once again his skill interactive. Yeah, right at three point two eight He's facing the Padres here their WRC plus falls to 98 against righties based on the current active roster So it may seem like a nightmare matchup and it's not fun to face all the guys the Padres have But it may not be as bad as it seems I expect this game to be low scoring and close and that pushes me to take the plus money on the dog I also do have interest in some props in this game. So we'll circle back to it later on but to me I Think taking the value in the Pirates here makes sense again My model loves Blake's now and it still says the Pirates here are undervalued such me that says we should take the Pirates here It feel good about it. I think that that's the way to play things based on my knowledge of the model And based on what it's saying I do think the Pirates of plus 136 are the proper play here The second money line is one that is a bit longer And a bit scarier, but it is one where actually we've seen some movements in our favor here So it's actually shortened a bit, which is annoying not quite as big as it was before but that's a tiger's money line It was plus 198 earlier on this morning It is now plus 188 the implied odds of plus 188 are 34 point seven percent My model puts the Tigers win odds at forty point nine percent So still quite a big cushion between where my model is and the market is and I think that's surprising because my model is Generally quite high on the Rangers and it's saying to bet the Tigers who the model does not like against them it really does come down to the number though and also My model is not as high in Dane Dunning He's been trying to throw more sliders his past five starts and in that time 12.2% strikeout rate and a five point five three skill interactive era So hasn't been the best stretch for Dunning even when he's been trying to I think gun for more strikeouts So it's very possible the model is too high in Detroit here because they're not a great team But they have shown some fight the past two nights Obviously last night not as much but I did get the win in game one of this series So we've got a lot of liver room here to be too high on the Tigers But for the market to also still be too low Even if we do have some error in our on our side here So it has shifted to plus 188 obviously not as favorable of a bet as it was before when it was plus 198 But I do still have a decent gap between where I'm at the market of about Six percentage points between me and the market So that's enough for me to take the Tigers here and ride with them with the money line at plus 188 The final two money lines are in West Coast games. Let's start things off here with one betting against the rays What could possibly go wrong with that that is the Diamondbacks money line at plus 124 Now you can get this at plus 130 at some other spots So as always make sure you're shopping around make sure you find the best spot to get this market And honestly, I'm a bit surprised to see Arizona still Rated so low by the market given how well they played this year as you can see on the screen They're 48 and 32 so far this year. They played really well The rays have two so this is not like an anti-raise thing I think it's more of a pro Arizona thing when I'm looking at the way Things break down for them. I'm guessing the reason the market is so low on the Diamondback series that Zach Davies is starting and Davies has had Hideous results recently the underlying numbers are bad too But my model knows the underlying numbers are bad and it still shows confidence in betting Arizona here if I had to guess the reason why I have a gap between myself and the market in this one It's probably because I do put a decent amount of value in Relief pitching and defense both those are going to favor Arizona in this game over the rays And while the rays offense is better than Arizona's Arizona's offense is definitely no slouch I think the key here not the key. You don't want to overrate one thing but one thing that does help me a bit here is that The defense talking about Arizona the one thing they do specifically very well is limited posing running games. They don't let you You know run with reckless abandon on them And I think that's encouraging against a race team that is very aggressive on the base pass I'm not saying they will totally mitigate that aspect of what makes the race great But They may be better equipped to handle it than a lot of teams would So they've got a good defense specifically one that can limit Posing running games that got a good bullpen behind zack davie should he falter offense is good I feel like we're a bit too high or a bit too low on arizona here My model as the dimevax went on at 48.3 percent the implied odds of plus 124 or 44.6 percent So again, as I mentioned make sure you shop around try to check out what the best number you can get is because you can get Plus 130 out there still but I think even a plus 124 Arizona's value based on just how good they've been. I think that they're not quite Getting the respect they deserve just yet Final money line I wanted to discuss here for tonight is the oakland a's against the yankees I know doesn't sound fun, but it does sound more fun without era judge The a's money line is plus 136 right now at fandals sports book whereas i've got the a's Fits above that. I've got them at 48.1 percent actually so pretty heavily above that And that is even with The yankees offense being a much better offense against lefties than they are against righties from those no era judge If you look at them without era judge on the active roster look at them facing lefties their wrc plus goes up to 108 It's 83 against righties So they actually do benefit in a pretty big way by facing jp sears as opposed to facing a righty But sears has been pretty good recently. He does let up a lot of fly balls But temperature in oakland tonight 63 degrees. It is also Generally a pitchers park. So coldest temperature on the slate It is a pitchers park in general Which means those fly balls won't do as much damage to jp sears as they may do in some of those situations So it's actually a pretty good setup for sears specifically and beyond the fly balls He's been really good recently leaning more on his forcing fast balls past eight starts in that time 4.35 skill interactive eray minimal walks and a decent number of strikeouts Domingo airman starting for the Yankees has been I think searching. It seems like hasn't quite found what he's looking for Looking at his past six starts the more sinkers his skill interactive eray is 4.87 a lot of hard contact in that time So yeah, the a stink they're not great by any means Um You know, it's not fun to be betting on them But I do think that again the market is undervaluing here. So the the a's plus 136 I believe fandal is the best spot to find that number So I would take the the the a's there plus 136 in the money line So again to recap the four money lines I like for tonight the a's a plus 136 arizona plus 124 fandal But again shop around as always the dinodax money line a plus 120 or the the tiger's money line a plus 188 And the pirates money line a plus 136 I do want to go back to that pirates game because there is a strikeout prop I like in that game now when a strikeout prop I will probably like in that game Later on today. So let's go to the pitching tab here over a fandal and check things out The one we're going to take right now is mitch keller over five and a half strikeouts That's at minus 122 right now and to me A very advantageous number It's again Scary to go at the Padres here But they're actually not a low strikeout team against righties 23.3 percent strikeout rates on the current active roster against righties And keller although the results have not always been perfect Has still been getting strikeouts in that aforementioned sand boys can throw more sliders His strikeout rate there 27.8 The one downside is the Padres do tend to have pretty long played appearances. They've taken on the The Juan Soto mindset of let's draw this thing out make it throw a lot of pitches They average 4.01 pitches per plate appearance against righties, which is a big number. So that's a downside Even with that though, I have keller projected for 7.3 strikeouts here So lane minus 122 on over five and a half totally fine by me So i'll take keller over five and a half at minus 122 right now If you look at blake snel in this game, his strikeout prop is seven and a half with even money on the over and that's a big number and I actually have interest in that however I don't think the market does because if you look elsewhere and look at what other books have as far as strikeout props for blake snel Most of them are still at six and a half heavily juiced towards the over so you could say okay Is it better to bet snel even money over seven and a half or take him at minus 156 or whatever it is over six and a half and I want to give like a quick tool for easily identifying this if you go to fandal You can go down to the alt markets and you can see the alternate strikeouts and you can kind of see If fandal had snel at six and a half strikeouts, where would the over be at that one? So you scroll down to seven plus strikeouts. You see it snel is minus 200 What that says is that fandal is well above the market on snels over Six and a half strikeouts they'd have a minus 200 whereas other books haven't met around minus 156 or so now maybe we see other books climbed where fandal is and maybe fandal wants to be just ahead of the market and You would still want to take snel even money. That's not true. I don't think that's the case because snels strikeout over seven and a half was minus 102 It is now even money, which means there has likely been some money coming in on the under So it has moved the other direction Also, we've seen we have uh the snel to get eight plus strikeouts of plus 102. So um again I think that we're going to see some Stabilization between what fandal has and what the market has what that says to me is if you want snel over seven half strikeouts Bet it later today. I don't think you'll get a worse number than even money over seven and a half So what I would say is kind of have this tab open on your computer Hit refresh every now and then see where snel's at and if you start to see it move back to minus 102 or so Over seven and a half. Maybe you take it at that point. I don't think that will happen though Just based on the way I'm reading this market I think there's a better chance that fandal bumps down to six and a half strikeouts for snel than We get Minus money over seven and a half once again later on today And again, let's say fandal does go down to six and a half strikeouts Then you can just go back to that alt market and still get plus money over seven half strikeouts by getting eight plus strikeouts Later on today. So I think it's always important to Like I we always preach shopping for the best line. That is very important You never want to pay seven dollars for a t-shirt when you could have paid five dollars down the road Like you want to make sure you always get the best price I understand that some people may not have access to all these books Maybe you have money in just one book But you can still use the information from other sports books to make better decisions as betters and to me Reading the other market says I don't want to bet blake snel over seven half right now Despite the fact that it's of interest in that market It says to me if I like this one and want to bet it later I should wait and take it later on Maybe that means when it's the boat. Maybe that means that He gets to minus one ten over seven half and i'm no longer interested. That's okay. I would rather have a no bet Than a bad bet and that's always been my personal mindset So even if you don't have multiple books, which again, you should and you should always shop for the best number You can still use information from other markets to make better informed decisions to get better numbers later on At the same book and try to read where the market way may go I think this market will come down on snel and we'll get over seven and a half at a better number later on but just kind of using that as like a tool for Analyzing the market the reason I like snel I should talk about that too over seven and a half is He's had increased velocity and been throwing more change ups recent that change up for him is a very good pitch Uh, it has a 48 whiff rate on it according to baseball savants So more change ups is a good thing more velo is a good thing in the past five starts with More more velo and more change ups here snel's strikeout marks. He's had seven eight 12 12 and 11 Three of those were on the road He's on the road for tonight and we saw the pirates get mowed down by braxton garret I think it was last thursday where he went for like 13 strikeouts What is prop was five and a half? So I think that the over is the right play here I just don't want to take it at a bad number So I likely want to add snel later on but not going to do it right now Just because I the way I think the market will go the keller one totally fine with you can get like Over five and a half for him is like minus 140 at some spots. So over five and a half minus 122 Okay, bet by me. So take the keller one if you if you like it I I think that there's value in the keller one right now totally. Okay, if you disagree But then if you like the snel one I'd hold off and potentially Snack that one later on so if that's helpful as far as the overall thought process of Using other markets to identify when to bet stuff and stuff like that So I think it's a very important skill when you are learning sports betting That is all that we have for today here on covering the spread. We are back once again tomorrow We're gonna talk some nascar on the streets of chicago. We're gonna talk some formula one in austria as well So it should be a pretty fun show. I'm psyched for both of those Absolutely, we'll talk about the markets for them on tomorrow's show Do not forget to subscribe to the covering the spread podcast eat wherever you get your podcasts also check us out On the fandal youtube page and on fandal tv plus if you like what you hear leave us a thumbs up on youtube Or a five star rating on apple podcast or on spotify if you've got any questions from me I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fandal podcast network at fandal podcast I want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Give that to you with your bets across the mlb for tonight We'll talk to you once again tomorrow. It talks some racing. This has been covering the spread right here on the fandal podcast network