 Good day, fellow investors. Let's start the news with this. This year is an economic boom that most people thought would be impossible to generate. Not a rise, not a blip, a genuine economic boom. And everybody wrote us off going back to the campaign. And as was put into place last year and now the fall through this year. And the numbers are coming in, they just keep coming in. Which is one of the reasons I tried to get all the present on this. I mean, we got 3.1% GDP in the first half of the year, 4.1 in the second quarter. The Atlanta Fed is predicting 4.3 in the third quarter. I think it's a very realistic estimate. Confidence numbers, large businesses, small businesses, and consumer confidence numbers are at or near record highs and from the latest surveys are continuing to rise. There's no let up in the increase. And confidence is everything. Confidence is everything. I can run down, let me, I'm not going to take up your time. I'm just saying. The really wonderful part of the story for me, I get off on this stuff, I understand that, but it's very important for the country, Americans, workforce. The new numbers coming in, retail sales, industrial production, low inflation, a rock steady dollar, trillions of dollars of capital from all over the world are coming, is coming into the United States. Because our economy, our investors, our workforce are crushing it right now. We are crushing it. And people say this is not sustainable. It's a one quarter of a glyph. It's just nonsense. Absolutely not. Any business economist worth his or her soul will look at these trends and tell you we're gone for a while. We have low inventories. We have rising business investment. Productivity is showing the first lift in years. The last number was 1.3% for the year. We haven't seen that in a long time. Businesses are investing. Capital goods is booming. This is a complete turnaround. It's like if you give Americans some freedom to run, they will run. So America is crushing it. So let's explain the story. Let's see the reasons why America is crushing it. Let's see what's behind it. And let's see it from a long term investing perspective. What will happen and how should one be invested? As said, America is crushing it. 4.1% growth over the quarter. So very, very good. But when was the last time America was crushing it? If we look at unemployment, usually when unemployment is really low, then we are close to the late part of the economic cycle. It's not perfect timing, but you can see when interest rates start going up, usually somewhere down the road, there is a recession that come. Some external shocks might come and there might be a recession. Nobody can predict those things. However, Ladlow said that there are trillions coming into the American economy from all over the world. Yes, but those trillions are a lot of debt towards the government and the debt is getting bigger and bigger. Budget deficit, $700 billion, topping $1 trillion in 2020 and then going to $1.5 trillion in 2028. These are data from the Congressional Budget Office, April Forecasts. This is not some mumbo jumbo. This is the Congressional Budget Office. Why is the economy doing so good? Well, if the government is borrowing $700 billion more than what it makes, $700 billion on $18.57 trillion US dollars of GDP, that's about 4%. So the debt, the government is overspending at that multiplier to that, that adds 4% of growth, 3.7% of GDP growth. Of course, it's not linear, but a lot of that comes from the debt. Also, consumer confidence. Consumers are confident because they have a job and it's easy to get a loan. You can swipe your credit card, you can go to car dealership, get a loan, you can buy anything on a loan. A little bit less on houses because we had a crisis, but anything else can be bought on a loan. This is another key factor, productivity. Productivity growth is what determines long-term growth. Faster growth can be made, can be achieved through more debt, but debt-debt growth will be repaid by a bigger decline later when the debt has to be repaid, refinanced, financed or whatever. This is the key. This is what a country can grow based on productivity. And the productivity growth on average for the last, what, five years has been around 0.5, 0.67%. So that's what the economy should have been growing in the past. If we go back to the chart, we have seen economy 2, 3 and now even 4%. And then Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin recently said that the US economy is well on the path for four or five years of sustained annual growth of 3%. 3% over five years with labor growth of 1%. So it's clear, the American economy is growing thanks to debt. Now, the question is, okay, everybody knows how that ends over the very long term, either inflation, either higher taxes, either something happens that's changed the status quo. But what if Mnuchin is right? What if America really grows on more debt, that deficit continues to expand 1 trillion, 1 trillion, 0.5 trillion of deficit and nobody cares and everybody's happy to buy more dollars investing in the economy. And America really grows at 3% over the next five years. Can it happen? Yes, definitely it can happen. So we have to invest in a way, what happens if Trump and his administrations are right? And what happens if they are wrong? The key answer to everything is nobody, nobody, nobody knows what will happen. The only thing you can do is invest in a way that whatever happens, whatever happens, that you get out ahead and that you make good returns, which means that you have to look at each investment you have now, you plan to make and then look, okay, if Trump is right, risk reward, what is the percentage possibility that five years of economic growth at 3%, 20% let's say, slower growth, let's say 40%, recession in the next six years, big recession five, let's say 50%, 60%, 70% chance. So that's something you have to think assess for each investment and this then see, okay, how diversified are you and how can you get ahead? Let's see something else that didn't happen, but the economy is still growing. What happened to the Trump infrastructure boom? There has been the money, but there are little investments. Further, taxes are lower, interest rates are lower, but corporations are investing less and less in capital, less less in development. You see the down, you see the declining blue line and you see the rising green line, which are net share buybacks. Those are rising, rising. This is data from Deloitte up to 2016, but if we look at current data, you can see quarter one 20%, 30% growth in buybacks thanks to what? Thanks to lower taxes. So companies didn't invest, they didn't hire, they're just pushing asset prices higher. Dividends are much more stable. If we look at buybacks, look how those drop in recession, but if we look at dividends, those don't drop that much. So this is the safety you might look for, okay, whatever happens, if I own good stocks, good businesses, I don't risk permanent capital loss just to think about it. So that's the way how things are. Nobody knows what will happen. Nobody, I wish I would, I knew what will happen. So the only thing is we can do is stay protected, find value in what we own, diversify, be balanced and really think smartly in a common sense way what might happen and how what might happen might affect our portfolio and what happens to our personal well-being finances, whatever, if that happens. And then you assess what can happen and then you see how it affects you and then you know how to invest in a better way. To summarize, Trump might be right, he might be wrong and his administration. Time will tell. Be diversified, be diversified, that's the only protection you have. Whatever happens, you have to come ahead. You have to be good, you have to reach your financial goals. You have to reach that retirement. Whatever happens, if a recession comes, nothing should change in the way you reach those things that you are doing. How to do that? Well, of course, there is always value investing. Value investing first looks at the risks and then at the upside. So whatever happens, you're trying to be protected, there are riskier place, there are less risky place, but in a diversified risk reward portfolio, you can come out ahead whatever happens. Diversification, assets across the globe, you might lose something on the hottest stock now, but in the long term, you have lower risk and you have higher upside. So always buy value and then as for recessions, will there be a stock market crash? Yes, there will be a stock market crash. Yes, there will be a recession. I wish I knew when, nobody knows when. So that's the only smart thing we as investors can do. I hope I have given you food forethought. If you like this way of investing, first looking at risk and then leaving the upside to what might happen, please subscribe to the channel. There are more stock analysis. There are more value investing mindset investments. Check my book on modern value investing or check my stock market research platform for in-detailed stock analysis on a risk reward basis, whatever happens with a long term perspective. Thank you and I'll see you in the next video.