 Okay, traders, welcome to today's live analysis session with me, Patrick Munley. Before we get going, a couple of things. One, if you can hear me and you can see the Tickmill welcome screen, if you could type a Y in the chat box just so I know we're ready to roll. Thanks for that. Second, with respect to the day session, I'm going to cover, I've got 26 charts, if we've got enough time to get through today, and if you have any questions or you want me to take a look at a chart that isn't on my watch list, then please wait till the end. I'll open up a brief Q&A session, which will give you an opportunity to ask any questions regarding today's content or any additional instruments you'd like me to take a look at. So before we get going into today's discussion, important to adhere to the risk disclaimer, the most important thing for you guys today is that the views expressed here by me today or any opinions regarding the charts or the setups are solely mine. They are not indicative of or representative of those held by Tickmill UK Limited or Tickmill Europe Limited. Okay, for those who are here for the first time today, I'm just going to give you a brief introduction to myself. After I graduated from King's College London, I joined a city PLC consulting firm after a few years of learning the ropes. I left and went on to successfully co-found and then exit a consulting startup in late 2004. I then moved on to explore my passion for markets. I had some capital to play with and some time on my hands. And so I started day trading or more appropriately probably day gambling the S&P 500. And after some early beginners' luck, I started racking up some solid and then some quite significant gains. However, as is often the case, the beginners' luck ran out. As the market phase changed, I basically began to average down into what we're going to prove to be significant losing positions. I ultimately gave back all my gains and took a six-figure hit on my personal capital. Say this was a gut wrenching and severing experiences and understatements. I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to look around and see if I could identify traders who were doing that. And I sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. I worked with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years. And during this time, I upped not just my technical game in terms of researching and developing a strategy that importantly suited my personality. I extensively back-tested and forward-tested that strategy and developed a rigorous risk management approach to underpin it. But most importantly, during that period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game. And probably the most important watershed shift I made was from being a highly goal-orientated individual focused on financial gains to becoming a purely process-orientated individual. So what does that actually mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and had to start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. Once you become process-orientated and have a professional trading mindset, and you understand the true nature of trading as being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you lose the emotional investment and hellish emotional rollercoaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a string of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008, since 2013. I've also been managing investor capital through my managed account service, delivering annual positive returns. You can actually see the performance data on the screen there. Since 2010, I've personally mentored over 100 private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reap consistent returns from the markets. I've also consulted for numerous brokers and trading education brands, contributing written content, webinars and live presentation content, a range of topics from market analysis to trading strategy development and execution. In addition to my fund management and private mentoring, I'm also a resident market expert at Tick Mill, providing not just these webinars but also a daily technical market outlook and a chart of the day or a set of the day. I also provide some interactive videos in terms of setups I'm tracking in the markets. You can go on to the Tick Mill blog and you actually sign up to get these updates directly to your email via their website. My other passion project is that of head of trading and trader education for a leading trader education brand called FXcareerswap.com. We offer development and more importantly funding to retail trading towns. FXcareerswap, we don't just develop retail traders market and trading strategy knowledge, we work on mindset development and through a structured program that culminates in managing the firm's capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. For those that are interested in learning more about FXcareerswap, you can contact them directly by phone with number here or you can drop them an email and the guys in London will be sure to give you the relevant information. That gives you a flavor of where it is I'm coming from. Let's jump into the charts now. Like I say 26 charts to run through and we will look at some potential action areas. So by looking at the market structure and identifying areas of interest, we can identify potential trading opportunities. So we're going to start here with the dollar index. Dollar has been in obviously a sharp decline but we're in a corrective phase at the moment. Now that correction could have completed or potentially completed at this 1995 high. Balance of probability suggests to me that we should see another high to ostensibly test an equality objective up towards 91 to 91 50. Now if we do get up into this area I would certainly be looking at various reversal patterns to set short positions to target another leg to the downside to at least complete this interim wave structure in the 3-4 here. I'm looking for a wave 5. Wave 5 could actually extend down towards the 87 50 which if I just go out to the weekly charts just refresh your memory why that level is of significance because that basically is an equality objective versus this structure here. So the weekly charts we reviewed at the start of the year and we know that 87 50 is an ABC corrective target versus this swing high in terms of the dollar index. Back to the interim chart so what I'd be looking for here is a potential pullback now to test or retest this 89 80 area support. We've got projected daily range support down here at 90 and we've got the projected weekly range support just above 90. So what's for any bullish reversal patterns in this area you can set long positions targeting this 91 50 but certainly pay attention to how we respond in this in this area because I think this is going to be the next leg down in terms of the dollar index. An instrument I've had a request to take a look at this is the 10 year notes in in terms of price not yield. I do cover the yields with the guys in the trading on the trading floor for FX cruise swap but what I'm looking at here is the price so the bond pricing so as prices go up yields go down as prices go down yields come up and they operate in the inverse fashion and this pop that we've had in terms of the bond price the 10 sorry the notes the 10 year price has been basically supporting this dollar balance but I think we're going to start to run out of steam certainly as we get back into this 130 707 area I expect we're going to see another leg lower in terms of price for these for these 10 year notes so watch as we trade into this area for potential resistance and take another leg to the downside in terms of these these 10 year notes euro dollar. So we've held we've held the support here at the 2050 level I did have an equality objective that so we can still test versus this swing high at 122 26 the quality of target is actually 120 but for now we'll start this move off the lows is starting to to gather some steam I think we'll we should run into resistance certainly as we trade back into this 122 area now any pullback from there that finds support at 121 40s 121 50s would suggest that the correction here is complete and we're actually going to trade to retest highs at 123 40 and on to the upside objective the interim upside objective at 124 50 from there I'd anticipate we do see another corrective phase but pay attention to these two areas if we can get through this 121 60 watch how we trade at 122 pullback hold the 121 40 area for long positions to basically take out the price on route to this 124 50 zone sterling has uh has been experiencing some upside pressure the the the pop we've seen in sterling has really been driven more by the the cross the euro sterling as opposed to I think intrinsic sterling strength but certainly at the moment whilst we was broken out here and we hold these prior highs then I think we can test this ascending trend line just above the 138 which was a target I talked about back end of last year I think once we get into this zone then I think we can see sterling run out of a bit of steam in the interim and we could see a pullback back into test support back towards the 134 and this is sending trend line but ultimately I'm looking for sterling to trade higher over the course of the year to get a test of this 140 area like I say pay attention we're holding projected range a daily range resistance at 137 44 at the moment but if we do get through there then I think we get up and test this ascending trend line resistance but certainly watch for bearish reversal patterns in that zone to set set short positions the dollar yen continues to correct I'm looking for the dollar yen to get back down into this 103 20 area and from there I think we do then have the potential to set up a move to test up towards 104 50 so I'll be watching very carefully we've got daily projected range support weekly projected range support we've also got this projected descending trend line so watch how we trade as we come into this 103 area bullish reversal patterns there you get nice risk reward to get in on the long side certainly look for a test of descending trend line resistance and then if we get through there bull flag pattern would set us up into this 104 50 Aussie this like many of these these pairs that we're going to look at is in a consolidation cycle at the moment but ultimately I'm looking now for us to break higher here in terms of this Aussie I think we can potentially get a test up in towards the target which I have about 80 as an interim upside objective expect a bit more consolidation certainly today as we get back into this 78 area we've got projected weekly range resistance daily projected range resistance I think that could be the catalyst for another pullback to frustrate bulls in the interim but as we then hold 77 20s of support then there is the potential I think for us to break higher take out this triple top as those who I work with will know I think the third test of any ascending or sorry the third test of any structural resistance or support or trend line support or resistance has a tendency to hold once we start talking about the fourth or the fifth test I'm more in favor of a break and and then you can see a breakout occur so watch as we test 78 anticipate some resistance there on this third test pullbacks supported towards 77 20 should see us take out the highs on route to that 80 level key week similar type story here we're looking at potential inverse head and shoulders at highs here which like I say similar to the Aussie we get up today we're checking projected weekly range resistance above the 72 handle seeing a little bit of profit taking potentially develop here certainly I think as we get back into this 72 36 again another frustration movies these consolidation phases especially with these in these wave force scenarios are set basically to frustrate traders so you've really got to pick your spot so if we if we fade here towards the 72 30 area I expect a pullback whipsaw here back into the 71 40s but again we're watching for bullish reversal patterns here set long positions ultimately targeting a breach of the price 73 13 on route to a test of 74 so there are two way opportunities here if you if you look if you intend to fade this zone with a bearish for our reversal going to keep your wrist tight but because what we could be looking at is another is another leg here which could set up this move so we'd have ABC to the downside at the 70 level which is what I was looking for initially but this this move is looking a little impulsive at the moment but if you get in on the short side here and you once we get back down and test support here you certainly want to have a risk-free position because it could be that you've got that that move occurring but more likely than not at the moment looking at price action I think we should hold support and ultimately see a run higher loony obviously trades the inverse of the Aussie and the Kiwi continue to trade within this potential ending diagonal but my sense at this stage looking at the broader market we probably have more work to do on the downside with respect to the loony but again thinking in terms of two-way trading opportunities there is a countertrend opportunity here if we get a leg lower to test 125 70s which is this descending trend line on the wedge watch for bullish reversal patterns there and get nice risk reward certainly to trade for a test of descending trend line resistance up towards 127 30 swissie pulling back I've been watching this one I'm watching the potential inverse head and shoulders scenario in the swissie which I've talked about for for quite a while now let's just draw this one in I'm sure it's I'm sure it's apparent to all of you but we have the left shoulder here and we have the right sorry the head here and then we have the potential for a right shoulder to develop I'm watching support at 88 27 is the area of interest and we'll see if we can get in there on on the short side in terms of the swissie sterling yen looking for a pullback here back into the pivot support at 141 50 then I think we get another part pop higher consolidate again consolidation phase frustrating trades I think first and foremost but any move then back into this 140 130 area is is setting up then a opportunity on the long side to basically target 43 and the top side of this ascending trend line resistance so key areas in terms of the sterling yen are going to be this 141 20 belongs and counter train shorts above 143 euro yen euro yen again looks like if we want to get a retest of the underside of this trend line which we were holding so I'm looking for as we hold 125 28 let's see if I'm going to move back up into 126 70 projected weekly range resistance we really got until tomorrow but 126 80 area and if we if we fade there if we get into this area and we fade I think we've got another leg of downside to ultimately get a test of this 124 50 in terms of the euro yen so 124 70 so what's the various reversal patterns on this retest here if we get it as an opportunity to do something on the short side in the euro yen Aussie yen was looking for a break here don't know if we're going to get it at the moment looking for us to take out well we'd we'd retested this trend line support we found some bias on the initial test and and the pop higher ultimately faded at at this 80 or look like it's fading at the 84 60 we have some nice reversal patterns yesterday but haven't seen any follow-through to the downside so whilst we hold here just throwing this up here so what if we hold this trend line again from current levels then I look for a test of the 82 level but certainly that 82 level will be an opportunity to do something on the short side as we make that third test of the projected ascending trend line resistance watch for bearish reversal patterns in that zone to do set short positions and what we're always looking for on these new highs to give us to to give us the confirmation or the confidence to get in on account of trend position is we want to see and be paying attention to momentum divergence which which is important to suggest that the move as is a short term exhaustion move so we want to always be paying attention to that momentum divergence on these new highs euro Aussie this one has potential to put in a double bottom here I'm going to watch this for our close I think there's an opportunity potentially here to get longer euro Aussie to play for a move up into into this weekly range resistance 158 30 so potential double bottom here and like I've just said what we know since we've got some nice divergence so I'm going to see where we close our 2pm GMT because I think we could have an opportunity on the on the long side in terms of this euro Aussie versus this double bottom euro sterling looking to hold this trend line support but for me at the moment any any strength in euro sterling is ultimately a phase as I'm looking for us to get down into the 86 level on the weekly chart let me just pull that up for you guys so you can see what I'm talking about this is the area I really want to see tested if we're going to move into 86 then I'd certainly be looking for reversal patterns in the euro sterling to do something on the long side but between between now and there I think we see continued pressure in euro sterling so whilst we hold resistance here at the 89 level I've been looking for for lower prices in terms of euro sterling and ultimately targeting that 86 level on a weekly chart which would give us opportunities to get in on the long side sterling Kiwi we are looking for sterling Kiwi to now test into the support area at the 89 level compete complete a correction versus this move off the lows now this this sterling Kiwi could be interesting because what we've got here is is we've basically got a potentially got a double bottom of sorts technically not it doesn't meet the strict sorry strict criteria but to the naked eye you can see that we've held this area this 86-20 as support and what we could do here is we could get this move into this zone which would give us a long set up because I'm looking for a test of this 92 50 which could prove terminal for the next leg to the downside or what we might get here is this this test of this support area with bullish reversal patterns obviously to confirm the long trade we could be looking at a quite significant then inverse head and shoulder scenario so we hold here and we hold here you can see there that this double bottom would basically be the head and we would have we could be looking at a more significant low in terms of the sterling Kiwi so that's one to keep an eye on but certainly if you if you if you get into this trade you have the opportunity to get in here pay attention to how we trade at this 92 50 90 260 because this could be the next leg lower in terms of the the sterling Kiwi dollar yuan looking to hold support here at the weekly projected range supports 6.45 looking for bullish reversals here to get back up and retest the prior highs monthly projected range resistance held to the tick so pull back to weekly range support if we can get bullish reversal patterns here I think we can get another run another test of the 6.5 level in terms of the dollar yuan S&P 500 posted chart of the day today very interesting technical pattern developing here I will be paying attention to to any test here into the weekly r3 daily projected range resistance projected shred line resistance all coming in at around this 30 38 90 39 level bearish reversal patterns are an opportunity to get in on the short side certainly get a retest I would anticipate at this 38 30 area and potentially down to test projected range support projected ascending trend lines support at this 37 20 zone Dow looking if we can take out these highs then I think we get the Dow up into this 31,470 31,540 bearish reversal patterns there I think we can look safely to get a test of the 30,700 level maybe we get one more high there to frustrate the shorts but ultimately I'm looking then for us to test down towards this 30,000 level and the third test of this projected trend line here in terms of the Dow the DAX looking for pullbacks here to basically find support at this ascending trend line projected daily range support 13,800 watch for bullish reversal patterns there then I think that sets up the next leg higher in the DAX to test this ascending projected ascending trend line resistance 14,400 monthly projected range resistance coming in just above there at 14,470 so bearish reversal patterns here with momentum sorry momentum divergence confirmation or an opportunity on the short side there in the DAX for a more meaningful correction and Nikkei still looking for this trend line test here at the 28,000 level I think that's an opportunity on the long side to get a test up into the 29,500 level and then from there I think we can see a more sustained corrected move in terms of the Nikkei put see holding attempting to hold this ascending trend line support I think we might have to breach that and get a test and set up a wedge here let's see let's draw this in so something like this wouldn't surprise me in terms of the footsie and and then we hold these prior highs here at 6,650 and I think that sets up the blow off move up above 7,000 and then from there probably a more meaningful correction in terms of the footsie coming to the commodities gold looking for a test of 1880s to fail and set up the move that I'm looking for to test this 1760 area support from there I think we could put in a more meaningful bottom in terms of gold and trade higher but for now I'm bearish gold looking for this corrective phase certainly any move up into projected range daily range resistance 1890 bearish reversal patterns are an opportunity on the short side to my mind silver similar story can you move up into 2640 2650 bearish reversal patterns and I think we get this test of this major trend line support back down to 22 and then from there I think we could have a meaningful low in place and and I'm looking for a move up to test 29 in terms of silver so some great two-way opportunities I think coming in in the metals crude looking for us to test 55 and then from there I'm looking for a more meaningful pullback in terms of crude but ultimately then I look for us to hold the 51 level sending trend line support on route to to higher prices I'm looking for proof to trade up towards 60 dollars a barrel so watching for this support zone to get tested I think is is going to be pivotable crude in coming weeks copper looking for copper to test this resistance area we've got range resistance multiple range resistance daily weekly and the monthly which we've held once so potential here for a double top and again a frustrating move pull back to test the support zone down to 353 and then from there I think we can extend higher once this complex correction completes and ultimately get a test of this major ascending trend line resistance obviously we want to see a bunch of divergence as we get up into this area and then I think we can see a more meaningful correction in copper and that that correction in copper will fuel the correction in the commodity currencies from higher prices I think we get back down to this sending trend line support at 338 and then maybe a more meaningful base develops last but not least bitcoin we were looking for a correction last week and we saw saw the pullback we're now testing this trend line support here at the 31,000 area versus this swing high at the 40 so versus this structure let me just draw it in so it's clear so whilst we hold these highs then we do have an equality objective at 28,700 now if we get down to this area and we get bullish reversal patterns we've got projected weekly range support 28 100 monthly range support 2800 if we get down we get bullish reversal patterns here for those who aren't already in the crypto space this I think could be an opportunity with bullish reversal patterns to work to get long and ultimately then look for a retest and take out these highs on route to this interim 44,000 objective and really I remain constructive on on bitcoin we this junction for me to to reconsider things we need to take out this trend line support 22 22,000 to to really start thinking that we've seen a more meaningful high in terms of in terms of bitcoin for now this is to my mind is just a shake out and we should we should see higher prices so those are the charts and areas of interest for me as we head into the back end this week and early next week if you have any questions or any charts you'd like me to take a look at that I haven't covered in today's discussion now is the time to chime in you can either post into the chat box or I can unmute your mic and you can speak to me over audio equally if you don't have a question for everything's clear and in the chat box is is just as useful so I know that we're all on the on the same page and we can we can wrap this one up here okay so I didn't see any questions that means I must have done a great job of explaining everything I'm going to wrap this up here then guys and we will reconvene at the same time next week thanks very much for your time and I hope this helps