 I'm going to get started. Welcome to CMC Markets, Non-Farm Payrolls webinar on Friday, the 5th of March 2021. Thank you for joining me. Michael Houston, will I take you through the numbers that are due out in just over 15 minutes? Certainly going to be an interesting set of numbers. I'm not sure that they're going to have a significant impact on where the markets are going, but nonetheless, we could see some very interesting price movements going forward. Before I get started, we'll go through a little bit of housekeeping with the disclaimers and what have you. Get them out of the way and then we can get cracking on looking back at this week's events in the context of today's payrolls number and what is likely to happen to markets over the course of the next few days, bearing in mind, of course, that we've got an ECB rate meeting next week and a Fed meeting the week after. So the next two weeks are going to be, I think, fairly important in the context of central bank jaw bonery, for want of a better word, when it comes to trying to keep a cap on the recent rise in long-term bond yields that we've seen over the course of the past few days. Now, I'm going to show you a Bloomberg chart to try and give you an indication of why markets are spooking out the way that they have been. And what I've got here is an overlay of the spread between the US 10-year yield and the US 2-year yield over the course of the past 10 years. So the white line is the 10-year and the orange line is the 2-year. Now, the Federal Reserve this week has gone to great lengths to tell the markets that they're not overly concerned about the rise in the long end of the yield curve. And this graph down here at the bottom is the rate differential between the 10-year and the 2-year. Now, one of the big complaints that banks have had over the course of the past few years is the fact the yield curve has been flat, i.e., the difference between two 5s, 10s has been very, very narrow. And that means that their ability to make a profit is compromised. Over the course, since the beginning of this year, we've seen a sharp spike higher in the longer end of the yield curve relative to the shorter end. And if you look at this orange line here, short-term borrowing costs are fairly well anchored. They're anchored. They're trading sideways. They're not going up. That's a good thing because, ultimately, what that means is that companies can borrow fairly short-term at fairly low rates. What's concerning people is the rise in the longer end. Now, the reason we're getting the rise in the longer end is because of higher expectations of a very significant economic rebound in the wake of the rollout of the vaccine programs here in the UK as well as the US. Now, bear with me, this does have an impact on today's payroll's number. Because how good or bad today's payroll's number will indicate whether or not we get further rises in the US 10-year yield. Now, at the moment, it's at 158. That's this number here. So we're at 158. At the beginning of this year, US 10-year yields were at 0.9%. So that's really a significant rise over the course of the past three months, or less than three months. It's the equivalent to a 60 basis point rate hike. So obviously, there's concern about a tightening of financial conditions and that's a concern. So this is my Bloomberg terminal that I'm looking at here. So this is something that I put together just before we came on. So this is not something that you can view on the CMC platform. I'm just showing you this for illustrative purposes as to why markets are concerned about rising interest rates at the longer end. Because if you look at the S&P 500, it trades on a one-year dividend yield of about 1.4%, 1.5%. Now, if interest rates are at zero, then it pays to buy stocks. Because in terms of valuation, you're likely to get a fairly decent capital gain. When US 10-year treasury yields are at 1.5% or exceed the forward dividend yield on the S&P 500, the reasons for owning stocks are far less compelling. And that is why you're getting rotation out of the higher-valued areas of the US market and you're getting a rise in bond yields. And the reason you're getting a rotation out of the higher-valued markets is simply because the case for owning something which has a yield of less than 1 or 1.5% becomes far less compelling. So you move that capital out and you move it into lower parts or lower areas of the market that have a lower valuation, which is why in the past two or three weeks, you've actually seen European markets outperform US markets. You're seeing more capital moving into the UK, FTSE 100, and European markets more broadly. Now, you may raise your eyebrows at me saying that, but if you actually look at what US markets have done over the last three weeks, they're on course for the third successive weekly decline, particularly the NASDAQ. The DAX is going to finish higher this week, as is the FTSE 100. So you're getting the beginnings of a divergence in the more highly-valued areas of the US market into the more cheaply-valued areas of the US market. And that's a direct consequence of what we're seeing here. You're also seeing the dollar strengthened as well on the back of optimism about the recovery that we've been seeing in the dollar index. Now, if we look at the dollar index, we can see from this chart here that we're starting to break higher. And that potentially tells me that the dollar is likely to strengthen even further. Now, you can argue whether or not that's a good thing or a bad thing for US equities. I would argue in some areas of the US equity market, it's a good thing, but the more highly-valued parts of the US equity market may be not so much. So why does what I've shown you just now matter in the context of the payroll's report? Well, I'll tell you, if we get a fairly decent number of the US payrolls and we're expecting a region and the range for the expectations is minus 100,000 to plus 500,000. So it puts us in the middle of around about plus 200,000 as a consensus view. Now ADP, the ADP report earlier this week, came in at 117,000 and that was well below market consensus of 200,000. Now, we've got a US stimulus plan that's currently going through the various procedures in the US Senate. The hope is that it will get voted through this weekend and we'll get another stimulus program of $1.9 trillion on top of the $900 billion that we saw at the end of last year and which helped prompt a rebound in US retail sales for January of 5.3%. So a good payroll's number could be bad for US equities. Bottom line, why? Because ultimately what it will do is it will drive yields higher because it will then underpin the recovery story and prompt concerns about the Federal Reserve tightening policy sooner rather than later. So that's why the dollar is also rising because the market is pricing in the prospect that the Fed may have to tighten, not that it will, it may have to tighten before the end of 2023-2024, which at the moment, it's encouraging the market to think. If you look at the two-year yield on US treasuries, it's trading at 0.13%. So at the moment, the market is not thinking, the market at the moment is not thinking that the Fed is likely to tighten anytime soon, but it is thinking that it will have to tighten before the ECB or potentially the Bank of England. Having said that, the way Cable's performed over the course of the past few weeks, there is a possibility the Bank of England may well have to tighten sooner rather than later as well. The prospect of negative rates is no longer on the table. As long as the vaccine rollout continues the way that it has been, and we get an economic reopening on the timetable that's been laid out by the UK government, what you're seeing in Europe at the moment is concerns about a third wave rising infections in France, Italy, Germany and Spain, which is likely to hollow out their services recovery in the summer. That's going to have significantly negative consequences for the likes of Spain, Italy and Greece who rely ever so much on a decent tourist season for the health of their overall economy. So the Cable is being affected by the stronger dollar, but it's also being underpinned by a weaker euro. So I still think the pound has potential to go higher as long as it stays above 137.30, but digressing. Let's have a look at the key levels on the NASDAQ because yesterday I tweeted a chart 24 hours ago with respect to the NASDAQ that suggested we may well have seen a reversal of the uptrend that's been in place over the course of the past 12 months. We've broken lower. We've taken out this previous low here. Now what that means is momentum is starting to subside and the case for owning tech stocks if yields continue to rise will continue to diminish in terms of their overall valuation. If you look at companies like Tesla, Apple, Amazon and what have you, while the case for owning them is fairly compelling, Tesla less so because it doesn't make any money, not from selling its cars anyway, then investors are going to have to take a much more critical look at the underlying fundamentals that underpin a good proportion of the rise that we've seen in equity markets over the course of the past two, three years. And if you take the tech sector out of the equation for US equity markets, most of the rise that we've seen over the course of the past two or three years has been pretty much as a result of unicorns like Peloton, well that's not unicorn anymore, but all of these IPOs that have been trading at a premium straight out of the block and which now or what we call stay at home stocks and which on an economic reopening could actually struggle to keep pace with the type of revenue growth that we've come used to. So on a technical basis the NASDAQ is looking a little bit ropey in terms of further upside potential. Now that doesn't necessarily mean that it won't finish the year higher but I think there is potential for us to come down a little bit more particularly if the payrolls numbers are particularly solid. Now they could just be neutral in which case we'll just get further chopping around and probably trade into the weekend you know in a slightly in a slightly sideways fashion but if we look at the weekly chart here we can see straight away that we've seen three very strong downward thrusts to the downside and as such the upward momentum does appear to be waning. So let's move on to the S&P and the S&P more encouragingly even though it has also been coming down it's still above this previous low back in the first of February so in terms of the S&P we're not at risk of coming down significantly harder but we are coming close to a very important trend line on the daily charts from these lows in December. So I changed that to a four hour chart just to give you a better indication of where the support lines are but we really do need to get back above 3800 very very quickly to reinstigate the upward momentum because at the moment we're looking at these highs they're getting lower the lows are getting lower and there is a risk overall that we could start to roll over in the short in the short term and in the here and now when we're looking as we come into the weekend I think there is potential for a little bit of a short squeeze but again here we're on course for a third successive weekly decline and I'm not sure today's payrolls numbers will probably change that too much even though we could see a move higher into the weekend. Looking at the US 30 the Dow whatever whatever you want to call it the Dow's much more resilient there's an awful lot more resilient but that's essentially because it's not particularly tech heavy and it has an awful lot of big caps in it but it has posted a bearish reversal all the way back at the end of the month and it started to trend a little bit lower so in terms of the overall of the overall overview of US markets I would suggest the Dow is probably the less susceptible to downside risk than the other two. Russell 2000 has started to show signs of running out of steam as well I'm probably not as convinced about the downside in the Russell 2000 as I am in the NASDAQ simply because it's much more domestically focused and if the US economy does well in 2021 then the Russell 2000 should benefit on the back of that. So what we're getting here at the moment ladies and gentlemen there's significant divergence between the more richly valued areas of the US market and the rest of the market if we look at the DAX we posted a record high earlier this week which explains why despite all of these declines in US markets we're not getting an awful lot of downside risk and I don't think that we will I think even if US markets continue to decline any downside in European markets is likely to be fairly limited simply because on a valuation basis there's so much cheaper now that doesn't necessarily mean they can go roaring higher but certainly I'm much more optimistic about the prospects for the likes of the FTSE 100 and those of you who've been regular attendees to my webinars will know that I'm bullish on the FTSE 100 I think we can finish I think we can head back to 7,000 and certainly on the basis of this chart here we are gearing up for a break higher if we can get through this upper line through here if we look at the weekly chart we can see that even better the FTSE 100 is really underperformed and what's really driving it higher at the moment is the rebound obviously in the oil price with that OPEC with that OPEC decision earlier this week and I think that for me is a little bit of a concern going forward because one of the last things that we want to see when it comes to crude oil is for it to go too high too quickly and just quickly get this in before the numbers come out this is a big level around about 72.50 it's also the highs here here and here so at some point we're going to have to start thinking about whether or not oil at these sorts of levels is going to act as a break on the economic recovery than anything else let's quickly go through the numbers now we're two minutes away looking for anything between 182,000 and 210,000 look for a revision to the January number we could get an upward or downward revision there so keep an eye on that keep an eye more importantly on the unemployment rate relative to the participation rate we don't have that on here so I will be keeping a close eye on that because the participation rate is still quite low and 61.4% so if that starts ticking up that's actually a good thing particularly if unemployment continues to tick lower so all in all a decent number could well be negative stocks a bad number could actually be slightly positive and drive yields lower but it's really about yields now ladies and gentlemen as we're heading towards the payrolls numbers quickly go through euro-dollar that's still looking soft I'm still expecting a move back to 118.70 over the course of the next few trading sessions which means that if we get a move back to 119.20, 119.30 I certainly would be looking above 119.40 rather sorry because we're above that already towards 119.70 trying to get it in before the numbers come out look to sell any rallies back to 119.70 euro dollar cable support 137.30, 137.20 right I'll be quiet now wait for the numbers to come out okay that looks like a stonking number and it is a stonking number and it's a stonking revision as well absolutely stonking revision there and the unemployment rate is lower so that's going to place upward pressure on US yields and that's precisely what it has done it's they've gone up already to if I can actually look at my Bloomberg it's a 160 already dollars gone bid not surprisingly on the back of that let's quickly look at a five-minute chart down we go average earnings I'm not too concerned about that at the moment because they're skewed by the fact that you've got an awful lot of people who are out of work and most of the people who lost their jobs were at the lower end of the price scale or the wage scale but that revision I mean that's that's an absolutely stonking payrolls report very dollar positive and ultimately just reinforces the narrative of the economic recovery story so let's just quickly look at what US futures are doing on the back of that there you go and as I suspected the immediate impulse reaction there is is to sell good news sell good news buy bad news you know I'm almost in a time warp from about five or ten years ago and the worse than news buy stocks good news sell stocks and you can certainly see in the context of where we are and euro dollar that the line of least resistance is for a dollar surge and and a spike higher in US 10-year treasuries which are now above 160 if I just pull this over now we can see that with this chart here US 10 year around about 160 now bear in mind the previous peaks were around about 161 so that is just one month's number so you know be very care of selling stocks be very well start again be careful about selling euro dollar aggressively at these sorts of levels because you could get squeezed but certainly I think the die has been cast when it comes to the overall picture going forward the recovery story is once again reinforced the Fed is unlikely to step in unless the two-year yield starts to rise the 10-year yield they're not overly concerned about the moment and as we can see from that previous chart that I showed you with respect to with respect to lots of train of thought now a previous chart I showed you with respect to the yields means that we could well see further sell-off and bond markets and further strengthen yields up to 1.7 1.75 percent but that's not necessarily a bad thing gold I mean gold is going to take a rinsing on the back of this number I would suggest if I just quickly go to gold we are likely to see further losses in gold there is an inverse correlation between what bond yields are doing David and what gold is doing and if we look at this chart here I think we're probably going to see further losses back to the lows that we saw back in June 2020 when we were around around about 1660 1670 if you look at the way the gold has been trading since US yields have been going up you can see that there is this inverse correlation US yields here were around about 10 years with 0.9 percent they're now 1.6 percent so essentially if you're looking at a gold position you have to really think about what US yields long term 10 year yields are doing and what the dollar is doing and at the moment if you're longer gold then you're going to be in an awful lot of difficulty and potentially we could well see further losses in gold towards the lows that we saw in the middle of the summer so hopefully that answers your question on that and you can see from the channel that I've drawn in that the overall trend is for a lower gold price so we may see a rebound back to 1720 1730 but while we're below 1720 1730 the trend is very much towards the downside for gold prices are there any other questions ladies and gentlemen yes interested in in view dolly yen higher in in a word if you've been following my weekly videos we've had the breakout above 10680 we've held above this trend line here which I've been talking about in every single video over the past month or so we've held above that and at the moment we look to be on course back to 10980 for dolly yen which is basically the June peaks of last year so certainly in the context of dolly yen we're above the 200-day moving average we've broken this up with resistance level through here and again this is a US yield story dolly yen will continue to benefit while US 10 year yields continue to grind higher so very much a case of buy the dips and dolly yen while yields remain strong sterling yen again I would suggest that sterling yen line of lease resistance is likely to be the same by the dips in sterling yen because I'm fairly bullish on cable despite the dollar strength as long as we hold above 13720 13730 why is that important I'll tell you in a minute but first and foremost let's draw in a trend line through here there we go there we go okay so you've got a nice little trend line there in dolly yen and that's likely to keep the overall trend higher intact for quite some time the only concern that I might have is any short-term weakness in cable might act as a bit of a drag on sterling yen and that is something that you do need to be mindful of particularly where the key support levels are in the cable trade and I will look at that now because I think given this bout of dollar strength the cable is going to come under pressure over the course of the next few weeks look at the 50-day moving average we've got a nice little trend for following here but the really important level ladies and gentlemen is this level through here through this series of peaks between 13710 and 13750 because this was the breakout level and which cable found really difficult to crack on the initial move higher so we need to be really mindful that as long as we hold above this series of peaks through here and the 50-day moving average then it's still very much a by-the-dip scenario for cable I will only reverse that view if we break the trend line the 50-day moving average and this February low here at 13560 so cable will be affected by a stronger dollar but if euro sterling remains weak that should offset some of the dollar strength so that's why it's important that when we look at currency pairs and particularly the cable that we also look at what euro sterling is doing because there is there is a very distinct correlation and relationship between the two now if we look at euro sterling once we broke out below this horizontal line through here and again regular attendees of my webinars will know that I'm a big proponent of support and resistance levels and these sorts of breakouts now this was a bit messy I grant you you know and it probably wasn't the most ideal scenario but once we got through it and consolidated through it it's gone it's ancient history and now for me euro sterling is very much sell the rally so you know that's something that we really need to focus on more than anything else now we have posted a little bit of a doji there which was prompted a bit of a pullback and that would suggest that we do have some buying interest down here but this peak here at 87.30 is going to be a key line in the sand for me as long as we remain below 87.30 I'm very much of the opinion that euro sterling line of least resistance is for further euro weakness further sterling strength and I I don't think the european central bank are going to be talking the euro up next week not by any stretch of the imagination they want a weaker euro now you can argue the bank of england doesn't want a stronger pound but i'm not being funny the pound isn't that strong not on a historical basis you know we're at 137 138 it's not a big number by any stretch of the imagination you know so it's not something that i'm going to be overly stressing about and you may get the bank of england saying this you know high in a higher pound is not good but i would actually counter that by saying a higher pound is actually very good because it clamps down on inflation it has a significant deflationary effect and the uk does suffer quite a bit from higher levels of inflation than the european peers or its us peers so for me a higher pound is actually good and also it means that you get more euros and dollars for your sterling if and when we're able finally to go on holiday so all in all um you know i'm still fairly bullish for sterling overall and certainly in the context of the sterling index which i can find here let's quickly open that there we go as i say we've seen a little bit of short term weakness but overall we're still in the broader uptrend and we are getting a little bit of weakness at the moment but we're still above the lows that we saw on the 26th of february so you know on a broad basis we've seen a little bit of a short term peak we may see a little bit of sideways consolidation but that's no reason to suggest that we won't see further sterling strength going forward i've been asked about ozzy dollar and that was certainly very that's certainly a very interesting chart let's just get rid of this because this is now surplus two requirements as is that this is very much a commodities play now last i don't know how many of you saw my copper video of last week last friday um but bear with me on this because it's important i think there is some evidence that we may have seen a short term peak in copper prices why do i say that because of what i saw last week with this bearish key day reversal on copper um over the course of the past 12 months we've seen copper prices rise exponentially rise really sharply they've doubled nearly doubled in value and at the end of february we saw a reversal which suggested that we may have well topped out nickel prices have fallen even faster and the reason we've seen this rise in base metals prices is the recovery story the copper is used and a whole host of different things it's used in um obviously electrical wiring it's used it's a good conductor of electricity it's used in solar panels it's used in batteries it's used in motor vehicles it's used in anything that basically runs on an electrical impulse so if you're going to a greener future and for renewables you need copper you need nickel now this doesn't mean that it can't go higher but at the moment we're seeing a short-term pause now that has significant consequences for the Aussie so obviously the Aussie showed a reversal at around about the same time right about the end of february same key day reversal so big question now for Aussie dollar in the face of a strengthening US dollar is to keep an eye on these lows here so you know Aussie dollar is a commodity play because of the number of miners that operate in Australia BHP Rio Tinto two biggest miners and commodities in the world so the price of commodities plays a significant role in how well the Aussie dollar does so the key level for me on Aussie dollar is in and around the February lows here which is around about 75 60 we've seen a bit of a reversal let's look at the weekly chart to see if that's replicated and yes it is replicated here so every single chart that I look at is telling me that the dollar is likely to rebound that's significant against the Aussie we've seen a reversal euro dollar looks weak dolly in looks strong you know there is a theme going through all of this and if we get a break of this 75 60 level Aussie dollar we could come all the way back down to 72 so the Aussie dollar is very much sell the rally type of trade when it comes to current sentiment and the only way that I would reverse that call is if we trade back above these two peaks here on the 2nd and 3rd of March 7840 okay so that for me I think is the big problem I think now with respect to Kiwi I've just been told that some people have lost audio please confirm that the rest of you have still have audio and just just take a break check speakers okay Kiwi quickly check the Kiwi and we're at a very key support level on Kiwi dollar at the moment if we look at this chart here and it's a similar sort of story with the Kiwi so if we draw a horizontal support and resistance line through here I can actually get it to attach we're right on 71 a break of that could we'll see us drop a little bit further let's get rid of that line there so this this looks as if we could be on the cusp of a bit of a reversal in the Kiwi as well certainly it certainly looks more compelling but again you know we are on the cusp of a very key support level on the Kiwi so for all of those people who've been writing the dollar off you know I've been in this market for 30 years and people have been writing off the dollar for the last 30 years and it always tends to come back stronger and usually when you get a chorus of people writing off a particular currency particularly when it's the dollar it's usually the time to go long of it anyway okay so um any more questions ladies and gents before I move on or wind this up because I think silver yep silver silver silver just just checking to make sure I haven't missed that so now we're going to move on to silver just right here yeah the picture for silver on a technical basis looks a little bit negative we can see a break of that short-term trend line here important to remember though that there's going to be fairly decent support in and around $24 so while I think we could get a little bit of weakness going forward I think the downside any downside is likely to be limited to the lows that we saw in January the 18th and obviously the 50 day moving average which is actually is a decent area of support and positive trend over the course of the past few weeks and months so no reason to suppose that silver won't remain fairly well supported obviously we also have the $30 level which we were driven there at the beginning of February by the reddit crowd when they decided they wanted to take on the silver market which was probably not the wisest thing they could have done okay so what else have we got right crude oil crude oil I'll try and deal with your questions each in turn right crude oil looks still looks fairly positive for the in the short to medium term certainly on the basis of this chart I'm going to change it to a weekly chart so that you can actually see the bars on a more granular basis but what I would say is that you're going to start finding the air is a little bit thin anywhere near 72 73 dollars a barrel you've got the highs from last year and obviously you've also got the highs from September 2019 so I think there is potential for further gains in the short to medium term but at some point the pressure for OPEC to release more barrels onto the market is going to grow on the basis that higher levels of inflation are likely to tighten financial conditions and if I'm honest I think Saudi Arabia are playing a very dangerous game because all they're doing is hastening the move towards renewables by making oil much more expensive and you're also expediting the return of the US shale industry after they got knocked out due to the cold weather they're going to take a while to come back but they'll be back so this talk of 80 85 dollars a barrel I'm not convinced about it simply because everyone's calling for it once everyone starts to call for a particular thing to happen that's usually the time to go the other way but at the moment you know very very solid week of gains for crude oil but you've got to think that we're starting to find the air a little bit thin at current levels and looking looking I'm certainly looking for a move back towards the peaks that we saw just over a year ago right very good question employment numbers improving seem to point to an improving economy so why would the stock market come down due to higher bond yields it's a bit confusing encounter intuitive yes it is but it's only certain parts of the stock market are coming down when I was in my introduction I outlined my reasonings as to why an improving economic picture could actually be negative for the stock market the stock market is not homogenous blob it's a it's a load of different sectors and what we're seeing at the moment is weakness in the more highly valued areas of the stock market so for example if we look at say for example the US NASDAQ an awful lot of those stocks have been rising exponentially over the course of the past four or five years because interest rates have been nailed to the floor so the the reasoning for owning them is very compelling because you can't get anything in terms of a return on government bonds but you can get a decent return on stock markets now you can get a decent return on US treasuries but there is no sort of dividend return or income return on say for example the more highly valued areas of the stock market so what you're seeing is the NASDAQ 100 coming down it's down for three weeks in a row but European markets are higher this week the FTSEA is higher the DAX is higher we've seen big gains in oil and gas stocks and they were the biggest victims of the sell-off at the beginning of last year and the lows that we saw in April May so money's coming out of the more expensive areas of the market and going into the cheaper areas of the market but at the same time bond yields are going up because markets are pricing in a recovery story and a potentially higher rate environment so I hope that makes sense for you Angela or if it doesn't drop me an email and I'm trying to explain it a little bit further you'll be getting an email in 24 hours asking for feedback on the session so if you do have any questions on anything that I've covered please include any comments in that email okay with respect to do you think the rise in US Treasury yields will be capped by foreign investors attracted by higher yields I do but that doesn't necessarily mean that I don't think yields can go higher I think the higher yields are a consequence a direct consequence of a more positive recovery story and certainly I think you will start to see more buyers of US Treasuries as the market continues to fall and yields continue to move higher but you're probably better off still putting your money in some of the more cheaper areas of the market particularly in Europe and in the UK so in terms of the dollar story more broadly I think the dollar will strengthen and as a result that will be on the basis of more stimulus just to think on the basis of the fact that people will think that the Fed won't be able to key interest rate expectations in place could cable touch 146 what time frame do you have in mind I mean yeah it can touch 146 maybe in two years time not this year I certainly think we can probably go as far as 142 143 over the course of the rest of the year 146 is probably optimistic but I'm still very much while we're above 137.5 in cable remain very much in buy-the-dip mode if we drop below that then obviously I will have to change my view and it's really about that what's your you know what's your reaction function when it comes to a particular currency pair I'm buy-the-dip until such and such things happen otherwise I will then change my strategy on that and at the moment I'm very much buy-the-dip can I can it touch 146 maybe but certainly it's got to get through 140 it's got to get through 140 first and until it does I'm not calling for it much higher than that it's about taking one step at a time you know to get to 146 it needs to clear 140 so until it does so thinking about whether it can go to 146 is really neither here nor there um Swiss franc okay similar sort of story I mean you know it's pretty much looking for a move back to 94 it's broken above the 200 day move in average that's positive for it likelihood is we're going to see a weaker swiss franc stronger dollar that was that will please the swiss national bank who don't like a strong franc so every commentator was saying dollar week in 2021 due to stimulus kicking in not every commentator Richard so yeah I mean basically I still think dollars buy-the-dips Gary send me an email and I'll put you in touch with the people you can talk to um as I said you'll be getting um you'll be getting um a feedback email in the next 24 hours just reply to that I will then forward your details on um with respect to your question Angela about rewatch the beginning of your presentation I am recording this and once I finished it I will upload it to CMC YouTube.com forward slash CMC markets PLC I will also tweet the um replay of this webcast on social media so um on Twitter and LinkedIn so it is it is my copper chat was recorded you can find it on CMC YouTube.com forward slash CMC markets PLC um on our YouTube channel and you can watch it I mean obviously it's a week old now so it's a bit a little bit of ancient history but nonetheless it you know all the stuff is there um the Euro Currency Index is the euro versus major trading partners in answer your question for stuffer yes it is um buh buh buh buh buh keep going keep going keep going when you say my price target for the dollar against what Angela okay so um while I'm while I'm waiting for a response to that particular question I'm going to wind this up um for you ladies and gentlemen and say I'll get to Singapore dollar ah right okay um give me a second well let's find the Singapore dollar for you before I wind it up oh it was there I don't think it is so let's just quickly find it usd sgd okay close that maximize that so you can see the bowl this all gives you a bit of an insight into my thought process is when I'm doing analysis and what have you okay so it looks to me as if the Singapore dollar has just completed a double bottom so let's just quickly do that over labels okay so this would suggest to me that now we've broken through 134 that we could we'll see a move back towards the 200-day move in average on this break higher um because we had a good deal of resistance all the way through here so any short position on a Singapore dollar trade would have had stop losses through 134 so certainly in the context of this particular move this ties into my stronger dollar story yes the oscillator is overbought so that is a worry we might we could see a little bit of a slide back but overall as long as we stay in this uptrend here then Singapore dollar should be now very much a buy the dips type of trade but as I say as with any trade you've got to run your stop loss and I certainly wouldn't be getting long at these sorts of levels I'd be looking for a pullback so we're around 13390 13380 or a pullback to this trend line here to get in for a move higher okay so um so there's that so anyway going back to this thank you very much ladies and gentlemen for your attendance today as I say I do these every month for non-farm payrolls we cover a whole multitude of different factors thank you for your questions thank you for your attendance and I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and have a great have a have a have a great weekend thanks very much