 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman, call now, toll free at 1-877-927-6648. Welcome folks, it's not Basil Chapman, it's a treat to be filling in for our man Basil Chapman. He's filled in for me many times on my program, I love to pay back the service, Basil does such an outstanding job, he's off today, I'll try and fill those shoes for the hour and hopefully we get some action and it seems like we may, that's been the trend recently. We got the S&P's right now off by 18 points trading at 39.59, looks like the range right now is about 39.40, we're bumping up against the area that we traded into the open at about 39.65, NASDAQ 100, a little bit of a sell-off same thing, NASDAQ 100, you're approaching 12,840, kind of that area of resistance right on the open and just where we were within the last 10 minutes or so, we make it down to 12,740. Down that opening bell, Dow right now off about 6 tenths percent, 32,130, you got the Russell off by about 15, crude off about 20, but catching a bit, we got a lot going on man, right? I just finished up the program, we'll jump to notes and bonds in a moment, but yeah, we're talking about the 10 year, we got lower price, higher yield coming at you just that quick man, the 10 year at 116.09, when I started the program, we were approaching 117, we just almost got to 116.05, the 10 year yield going from almost 3.3 percent to now 3.37 percent, just mammoth moves in the span of one hour. The 30 year up 16 ticks, but you see the pullback there as well off a full point from where I was at nine in the morning and you jump over to the VIX, just talked about the VIX, right? Sitting right at 24, you're talking about pricing in, 1.5 percent moves every one out of three days, and the S&P is doing that by lunch every day, folks, let alone one out of three days, excuse me, one and a half percent every one out of three days. Are we going to go right back to that bottom price board at 39.40? I was talking about my program that basically the moves we've been seeing in this market to the downside at least the last couple of days, right? You catch a pop, you sell off, you catch a pop on yesterday, you sell off. We caught a pop into the overnight to some degree up to 4,000, you trade down 60 points, you get up 25, and just like that, we're down by 21 S&Ps off more than half a percent right now. All right, let's check out some of the social media companies. I was talking about this a bit yesterday. Seems like the writing's on the wall, folks. I was listening to some reaction from some people in Congress yesterday, right? And I forget which Senator it was. I was believing it was a Senator. I believe it was a Democratic Senator. And he was talking about if the Chinese want it, they're going to get it. And then I don't think he said this, but you take it to the next level and you say, of course, the Chinese want all the data that TikTok has, they have everything. Why would you not want that? Of course you want that. So, of course, they're going to be able to get it. And especially if they have ownership interest, no matter how much you say it's walled off. But what I thought was so interesting is that at the end of that conversation, it got dropped to say, well, if China wants what Facebook has, they can get them too. And it's almost to that degree, right? When you're dealing with state-sponsored espionage to the term of China, to think for a moment that they could have any involvement with this company and somehow not gain access to that data if they really wanted to, when in theory they can gain access to almost anything. Not sure of that, right? But it is something that you start realizing, wait a second. Maybe it's just not a good idea that we have all these centralized locations for all the data. And that's why we might want to regulate, folks, where that data is stored, how it's stored. And I wish we had something where we owned our own data and had the ability to tell firms what they did with it, OK, because they're going to know everything about us. And you're seeing it play out, right? Everybody's worried about that China will get all the data from TikTok. But you're going to have these tech companies anyway having all that data, OK? And there is the very distinct possibility that you get out there. And Dan, I hear you. You have that ability to don't sign up, right? But boy, we're at a point in life, folks, that you do have to make the choices. Because if you want to go live in a hut and live off of gas stoves, right, and never use a phone and never put yourself into a directory, it's becoming a fact of life that to have a phone, for instance, the amount of data that just to have a phone and to have what I consider the best phone on the market, which allows me to compete in the financial arena, allows me to be gas stoves are great, man. It's a necessary tool for the economic engine that is the country and the world. So I'm not I'm willing to make that sacrifice of putting that data out there. Even though, man, you better protect yourself, give no one your social security number, you know, do everything you can to protect that data. But the sacrifice is too great, in my opinion, to give that up in terms of the sacrifices too great to keep all that out of the hands of Apple, to keep it out of the hands of Google, to never use a computer, to never use a phone, to never pull up my iPhone, right? It's just too much, man. So it's a necessary factor of life. I have kids. I have to make the most of my life for them, for myself. And it would be too difficult, especially in, you know, I'm sitting there, man. I'm sitting there with with Tommy, right? He's taking swim classes this week. And you know what? I'm going to give these people a plug, man, because this is awesome going on. OK, if you are in the Lakeland area, OK, Tommy's going to swim lessons this week. This company is called Swim Dynamic. We got two hours. We get to talk about a lot. And there's a lot to talk about. He's just over two years old, folks. We live in Florida, of course, pools everywhere. You got to get your kids to learn how to swim. The earlier, the better. It's one of the most dangerous parts of being a child is being around a pool. That they can die, of course. So he's in a class five days a week. Just one week, though, right? Half hour a day. I drop him off. He's in the pool with the instructor one on one. And he's only two years old. He did not like it the first day. Didn't like it the second day, but man, he is doing amazing. He's learning how to swim. And there's nothing more important than that. And by the second or third day, he just doesn't want to get dropped off. You know, he just doesn't want to hang out with me, man, during the afternoons. But so he's doing this. Check it out, folks. It's a great program. So the five days is $225. Best $225 I've ever spent on a man, if he knows how to swim. And he's just right there, which is remarkable. Yeah. And they kick, they swim, right? They move those hands. So check it out. It's called Swim Dynamic in Lakeland, Florida. And they offer lessons for all ages. But I think it's so cool, this program they put together. They've been doing it for like 13 years, 15 years, something like that, nine plus years. And it's designed for kind of an intense program for kids. And you know, I come in there with Tommy and he loves it now that he does. Some of the stuff he doesn't like, they're teaching you stuff that you don't want to do, right? They're getting them floating on their back. They're getting them to learn how to swim to the edge, get over to the edge, depending on how old you are at Tommy's age, being just barely two years old. They're getting them to how to swim to the edge, swim over, grab the edge, get over to the stairs, et cetera. So, you know, it's practice. They just want to play around with their cars and stuff like that. But what am I doing to get to the point back to finance? So they put you in a room and you can watch them, but you're not there. That way they're focused on the teacher. You know, the parents, they want you to help them, save them, take them out of the lesson. You know, let's just play, man, stop making me do all these exercises. I'm sitting in the watchroom and I'm trading on my thinkorswim platform on my mobile device, right? Well, what do I do there? Should I not do that? Is that not what I should be doing? I'm watching him. I'm watching the market. We're getting just moves that are insane. Sinkorswim, literally, exactly. I should be on the commercial, man. I'm going to talk to our man, Kevin Hinks. Sinkorswim at Swim Lessons, trading on the thinkorswim platform. And geez, you know, folks, the class is in the afternoon. I don't have to tell you what the bucket's been doing in the afternoon this week. Just mammoth moves across the board. But guess what? We just got a bounce. We're above where we were on the open. SMPs off by 10 points. We're coming back to where we were at about five in the morning right now. NASDAQ 100 off by 23. This is Tommy O'Brien, filling in for our man, Basil Chapman. I'm here for the hour. Stay tuned, folks. Right back after the break. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them, using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tommy O'Brien is here to help. Tommy O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years. A frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC, Tommy O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. Tom's Daily Market Newsletter, Market Insights, is published every morning when the markets open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed. These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio. Get Tommy O'Brien's newsletter, Market Insights, today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money-back guarantee at TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from Veteran Day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com, educating investors. TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den. Hosted at Discord, TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, the Tiger's Den. Available to all tigers and tigeresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. Welcome back, folks. I like it. I like Basil's Music Tiger Technicians Hour. I like it. S&P's off 23 points. Just fast markets, folks. Fast market coming up at 12 today with our man Kevin Hinks on the TD Ameritrade Network right here on Tiger TV, and it is a fast market. These are one-minute bars that I just put up. 10-14 going into that break. We were approaching 39-70. We almost got 39-50 in the middle of that break. Breaks only three minutes long. Back to a five-minute chart on the S&Ps. So where are we coming into? Kind of the looser right where we were yesterday, right? About 39-60 was that price point. 39-70 was where this market traded to two days ago. Just to put that on an area, that could be an area resistance. Yes, it is. And guess what we just bounced into, folks? 39-69-50, right? Doesn't mean it's gonna work all the time, folks. But that's gonna be a critical area. 39-70 on that chart. We already pumped into it once. We're trading at 39-56. And as our man, Basil Chapman, would say the day is young. It's only 10-19. You got it. Okay, jumping to an article from the Journal. This is what, two hours, man. Two hours is easy today in this market with everything going on, because there's just so much to talk about, man. I'm up for hours, so it's great, folks. I wake up about six in the morning. 5.30, six in the morning usually. Tommy's usually up with me, about 6.15. My mom comes over and watches him at about 8.15, 8.30. And so that's where I'm jumping into the chair. But for a couple hours, he's hanging out. We're having breakfast this morning. He's coloring his coloring book. He's playing with his blocks. He's building his blocks. He knows his numbers, man. He can count to 20 or 30 almost right now. He knows his alphabet grade. He loves singing and dancing. But I'm reading stuff. I'm hanging out and I'm hanging with him. He's playing. I'm nursing some knowledge in those same couple hours that's going on. We're making breakfast together. He's hanging out. He's singing. And there's just so much going on to read. And this is an article I found pretty interesting that I was checking out. Now this one's out at 5.30 a.m. this morning. And it's talking about accounting fraud indicator signals coming economic trouble. This is from the journal. A tool to identify corporate earnings manipulation finds the most risk in over 40 years. Just checking back to the market since it's a quick one, want to keep my eye on it. I mean, this thing could drop 20, 30 points in either direction in a heartbeat right now, folks. And what this is talking about is this is talking about something called the M score. Okay? Unless you study accounting, you have likely never come across the M score, which is the number underlying both the Enron episode and the economy concern now. The M is for manipulation. It uses the company's financial statements to determine whether it is engaging in manipulation or possible manipulation. It should say. Since the 1990s, the metric has been used to identify red flags in individual companies. You got a professor from Indiana University who developed the score in the 90s and several others in the 2000s. It shows a disturbing pattern in the historical data and the probability of manipulation usually rises rapidly in the quarters before the economy tips into recession. Now that's why I say manipulation, not always this like deviant manipulative type, sometimes for sure. Enron, right? When you take it to the scale, this is the perception I have from reading this article, okay? We think this is a measure of misinformation in the economy. And this is the chart that you're looking at here, okay? So you have the M score, the aggregate probability of fraud quarterly, talking about the M score, and you're going back to the 1980s here, and then you have the area shaded for recession. And you can see as it peaks, recession follows. You peak in 88, it follows. You peak again in 2000. You also peaked kinda in 1995, and it didn't quite happen though. You peaked in 2000, it follows. You peaked in 2008, it follows. You had some stuff. 2018, remember? We had some stuff going on at the end of 2018. Okay, so there was stuff going on. It is calculated. This is the important part, understanding how it's calculated. Eight ratios on a company's balance sheet, okay? Now these are just straight out balance sheet numbers on the public company's quarterlies, okay? Comparing the ratios to earning statements from a year earlier. So what they're doing is they're looking at trends that change over the year. For example, one of eight metrics raises a flag if a company abruptly starts reporting more receivables. What does that mean? More money owed to the firm but not yet paid. Another flag goes up if the company reports higher values of assets that cannot be sold. Are you familiar with those recently in the banking crisis? So, and that are not clearly identified as plants, property, or equipment, okay? The third metric looks at changes in accruals, which is when an expense has been incurred but not yet paid. Another identifies whether companies change how much depreciation they take. So it's not all manipulation if you think about the fact that isn't a manipulation if a company's receivables are going up because people aren't paying them. No, that's why they report them, okay? There are ways for companies to manipulate all these metrics to appear profitable even when actual sales aren't improving. That is the kicker. So it goes both ways. Now there could be legitimate reasons they talk about but what they also talked about in here is that the M score's most famous moment came when it revealed that three years before they collapsed you had people at Cornell, students in the business school there under one of the professors used the model to flag Enron that it may be a company manipulating its earnings. Their report was posted online. It received little attention until after Enron collapsed. Later it flagged the German payment processor Wirecard AG. They collapsed with accounting fraud exposed in 2020. Comparisons to Enron. Yeah, June 17th of that year, valued at $14 billion, eight days later it filed for bankruptcy or the equivalent. So it's something to put on your radar man because we are now above where you were in 2018, we're above where you were in 2011, we're above anywhere we've been since 1980. And look what happened as we all know when we came in and guess what we were dealing with in 1980 folks? Guess what we were dealing with? Inflation, okay? So that's a little worrisome man on that chart because not only has it peaked, it is peaked above where we've been anytime until 1980 and you see the odds of a recession that follow and it would make sense with everything going on man, right? With everything going on, I went over some of the matrix metrics and it would make sense in terms of some of the metrics that apply in terms of receivables, right, in terms of some of the other metrics and what's going on in this economy right now. Yeah, why not? Sprinkle some Russia on there too, man. Why not? Why not? All right, what else do we got talking about? Yeah, I mean simple. So, interesting when you look at where we are, a journal article this morning again, okay? They posted both of those, I think 530, they're firing a lot up here of course at 530 to start the day. It's just simple stuff, but this is a headwind from markets too. So, I just wanted to touch on it. Where to put your money during a banking crisis? Holding cash can still earn a return for investors. That's putting it lightly right now folks. Okay, make sure you're protected. Don't put one of the $250,000 in a bank, there's just no need. I don't think that they're gonna let those banks fail. I don't, I really don't, as in I would put the probability very high that they do not let customer funds go BK at any point. But why would you risk it? Because there's no reward. You see, that's the whole thing. Everything has a risk probability and everything has a reward probability to some degree, right? The reward probability is just a little bit more ease of managing your investments, they're all in one spot. The risk is that you lose all your money. Well, that's not a risk award as a trader uncomfortable with men. But we'll talk about some of this, it's simple stuff, but there's many options, high yield savings. I'll probably finish it by the time we get to the break. Money market funds, CDs, U.S. government bonds. That's a whole lot of money of options right now, still in this market. Stay tuned, S&P's 39.62, we're right back. To see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the Goal Report, sign up now by visiting TFNN.com. 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Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN, educating investors. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We've got markets catching a little bit of a pop. We're back to the highs of the session, basically. We climbed to that 39.70 price point. And remember, as I was pointing out on the chart, that is basically the spike low on the Federal Reserve Day to 39.70. You got below that level yesterday. We're right back to that level right now, 39.70. Let's just see on a Fibonacci basis from where we were overnight, where that's lining up. Right at about a 50% from where we were overnight on the S&Ps pumping into about 39.70. The 618 would bring you to about 39.75 was where you got that first drop at about 4 a.m. Let's check out some of the banks. Deutsche Bank down about 6.5% right now. UBS off 3% right now. Credit Swiss, even though it's still trading, 83 pennies off 4% right now. Our banks, JP Morgan, only off 1.7% S&Ps right at 39.70. You're only off by seven points right now. As I said, it's a two-way market, to say the least. And let's see how some of the others. Square off 3% right now. Coinbase, there's a pop for you. Coinbase up 2.2%, even with Bitcoin down $225, but catching a bid back above 28,000. So Coinbase catching a bid as we just had Bitcoin trade, what, up 800 bucks from where it's spiked to this morning. You talk about volatility, man. All right, back to square for a moment. So if you didn't see the allegations in what they exactly are, what they have to do with is facilitating fraud to the degree of having people, multiple people using the same app. In its investigation, Hindenburg alleged, it found that Block's wildly popular cash app was likely facilitating scammers taking advantage of government stimulus programs during the pandemic. In response to a public records request, good old hometown state of Massachusetts told the short seller, told Hindenburg, that it sought to claw back over 69,000 unemployment payments from the bank behind cash app accounts. An amount that exceeded those, it sought to reverse from major banks like JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, which have far more customers. It's pretty damning evidence in a pretty simple context there. Block ignored both internal and external warnings that multiple individuals using the same bank account number to receive government funds was a brazen red flag of fraud, multiple key lapses in cash apps compliance processes facilitated billions in government payment fraud. Now we already know the fraud over government payments. It's probably the easiest one to push out in terms of to achieve. And we know the amount of money that they were pushing out, just massive fraud for sure. But yeah, it would make sense that they might be facilitating it if you're getting a lot more requests having to do with their bank. It's gonna play out man, but be careful on that one. Now I don't know what that means in terms of percentage wise for Square, should they be down from 78 on Wednesday to $60, down 18 bucks, down more than 20% from that number? I'm not so sure that's the case. Yeah, and I'm texting with some friends and I do have friends in the credit card industry folks and Square grew, okay. One of my friends is talking about, it's a great point. They grew from having no real underwriting in giving anyone a merchant account, right? I mean, that's how they grew. You could have a Square and all of a sudden you have a merchant account and you can push that out to the people. So we'll see how it plays out, but I don't think Square is gonna be suing Hindenburg and getting any real success there when they probably have some teeth as everything folks. The truth probably lies somewhere in between but there's probably where there's smoke, there's fire in the same degree and it wouldn't be surprising for this entity, in my opinion, to be there. Yeah, and within the industry, okay, there were, think about it, is that anybody could take credit card when they came about to Square. No matter what kind of illegal dealings you may be in that you could somehow facilitate it for something else if you had to, if you were paying your taxes anyway, et cetera, right? It allowed anybody to somehow take a credit card just in the simplicity of their own phone and a little square that you plugged into it didn't used to be the case. You're supposed to be having risk parameters in there for your merchants that they're conducting business that is legal, ethical, whatever it is to some degree. So we'll see where that plays out but it was a point worth mentioning. All right, let's check out notes and bonds as we've been getting some movement. 1607, look at these moves man, from 1616, that's an eight basis point move, eight tick move in the 10 year in the span of five, 10 minutes man. Yeah, and then there's a lot of fraud when these new technologies come out folks. Cash app PayPal was similar deal when they started, they've matured to a certain degree but it'd be interesting to see how much of a hit that has on the equity versus the reality that it could be possible and who really knows right now. Let's jump over to the dollar index. Back in off a bit, 10311, let's jump over to some of those streamers as I know Netflix was higher. Disney just off with the market. Yeah, what's going on with Netflix? Anybody know just catching a bid up 2.5% right now for Netflix? Yeah, no real big news, I don't think. Maybe just catching a bid across the board for Netflix at 328 right now. Yeah, and even friends in the industry folks, I have a couple saying yeah, it's not like it's gonna do in the company though and in a few years it could just be a blemish for that company, obviously a successful company. And that's quite a hit in terms of what we're talking about here. We're talking about a company with 600 million shares outstanding. You're at $36 billion right now, but 600 million shares outstanding. And what, what is that? $14 hit? $8, $9 billion almost wiped off market cap off that company, 20% hit in no time. Look at this S&P just keeps bumping, bumping, bumping. It gets 39.70, we're trading at 39.63 right now. That's gonna be a critical area, man, because it's the lows of the Federal Reserve Day of Wednesday to see where we go forward. All right, what else do I have pulled up here? Why not? We'll talk a little John Wick. This is everything, man. Read the journal, read Bloomberg. I read some New York Times this morning. John Wick chapter four. I pulled this article up only to say folks, if you have not seen the John Wick franchise, check it out, because it is awesome. Keanu Reeves, it is awesome. Didn't even realize I guess chapter four was coming up. But yeah, it's coming up. He keeps killing it. Here's the review from the journal. I don't have to go through it all, but if you haven't checked out John Wick folks, check it out. It is awesome to put it lightly. All right, what else do we have pulled up here? Yeah, we talked about where do you put your money? A little March Madness going on, right? Counting fraud. And yeah, let's take a look at some of the social media companies, because this is gonna be in vogue until something happens, man, Snapchat catching a bit, up 2%. Meta shares right now up about 810%. And that has to do with the headline. Just talking about China hits back on TikTok, says it doesn't ask companies for foreign data. I don't have to go any further into that if you're gonna believe that one. Well, our man Larry Pezzavento, he's gotta share the Brooklyn Bridge to sell you, as he would say, if you're gonna believe that one, to put it lightly. First Republic. So this is out this morning. Bank falls on finance sector jitters in Europe. The reason why I say it's out this morning, because you basically could have written this headline for 72 hours going back, 96 hours going back, all this week going back. Let's see how first Republic straightened this morning. Down 1.8% off of the lows. But you wanna talk about chart folks? That's one chart, okay? And yeah, the brand alone at this point, very difficult to imagine you come back for that. You know, maybe Yellen comes out and guarantees all deposits or tries to. I don't know if she has the ability to, but maybe she does, that puts beyond that. Or beyond that maybe they just come out and say, hey, first Republic is guaranteed. I don't know, but beyond that, I don't know how you put your confidence in that company anytime soon. S&Ps just hanging in 39, 64, stay tuned folks. We'll be right back in three minutes. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks, and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns. Finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman and your inbox every day. First time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee. 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Welcome back folks and yeah, the S&P back to a 15 minute chart, let's do it. We recheck that area yet again, about 3970. You actually got during the 1030 bar up to a high of 3973. We're now trading at 3957 in the S&P. So jumping around to some of the articles, that's why. Not always easy to think about doing two hours and I'm glad I got to do it for Basil, man, because he fills in for myself, many other hosts so often and he's away for the weekend. He'll be back Monday morning doing his program right now for the Tiger Technicians Hour. Bond traders, Betfed, will cut rates by June as bank stress grows. We're gonna be cutting by June, man, I don't know. Maybe the market just takes an absolute hammer. But boy, if we're cutting by June, okay, if we're cutting by June, where's the S&P? That's what I try to wrap my head around when I was reading some of this. I mean, in the den, help me think this one through, right, what needs to happen or what is likely to happen. If we're getting a cutting, just talking about equities and I know everything else is its own entity. I know that equities are not an accurate representation of the economy, not even close, okay, because you can have equities flying and you can have people getting hurt, man, because a vast majority of the people are not in the equity market. They might work for some of those companies, okay, but a vast majority of the population does not have extreme exposure to the stock market in the way that they have extreme exposure to the economy when it takes a hit. So if they're gonna be cutting by June, so that's two meetings away, right? What do they have? They meet every six weeks. Let's pull up the meeting schedule for this year. Next meeting schedule, what, is in April, I think? No, right at the beginning of May. May 2nd and 3rd, and then they come June 13th and 14th, okay? So May 2nd and 3rd, you potentially, what, get a pause and then they cut right away in June? I don't know if that's the case, man. It's really difficult for me to imagine that's the case without some real hardship over the next three months going on to force that type of action to put it lightly. And you've seen how quickly it can play out over the last couple weeks in terms of how you're gonna know we're gonna be three months from now when if you told the world what it was gonna look like after Chairman Powell made his speech two weeks ago last, on a Tuesday, like 15, no, 16, 17 days ago, you never know. But the fact that the market is lining up for this with the US, German, UK, two year yields drop more than 20 basis points. Bond traders bet the Fed will cut rates by June as bank stress grows. They got a tweet in here from Gunlick, talking about he predicts the Federal Reserve will be cutting rates substantially soon. Disclaimer at the end of a tweet, nothing like disclaimer in your own tweet to say you're wrong about 30% of the time. So fact that factor that into any decision. There are hot takes everywhere, folks, in this market. Nobody really knows and the amount of data we're gonna get over the next three months is gonna decide that and that's where it goes. Now you can make your own assumptions which go into your trades to say the least. And I don't know how quickly they're gonna go up from this point because the pressure on the banks is real. Even though I think the banks will be okay because it's a little bit of a different scenario than 2008 that the, if they do hold to maturity you get your money back versus the crap they had on their books in 2008 you hold to maturity. It's still worth nothing just like it was worth nothing during the crisis. But I really think it's gonna be tough for them to go into cut mode, okay? That is a transition. I always knew or anticipated that the end of hiking could come and it's coming this year, okay? It has to. Maybe they pause and then they'd have to hike again if things ratchet it up but the pause has to come because they're so high. But when does the cut come, man? Because they start cutting. The market's probably gonna expect them to be in a cutting cycle because they're gonna be in restrictive policy and if they're gonna start going down once you start you're kind of on that path. See it very difficult for them to come in any time soon. Chairman Powell said it, okay? The market's not believing him in terms of what he's putting out there. But I believe him to a certain degree folks because the banking crisis isn't gonna squash inflation. Our man Kevin Hinks has talked about it folks. They have two mandates, okay? Price stability, which is inflation and full employment. We are roaring at full employment and we are roaring at generational inflation. Keep that in your mind and realize that the chairman's worried about the banks as he should be and he knows more than we do. Keep that in mind as well. But also keep in mind folks that the banks are probably gonna be okay. And his legacy is not gonna be defined by saving the banks because they're gonna be okay. His legacy is gonna be defined by what happens with inflation because it came under him and it better go away under him. And if it doesn't, he's gonna be known as the Fed chair that brought inflation and couldn't tame it. And you don't wanna be known like that. And right now where the market is sitting he still has room to stay higher for longer at least. We start really taking a hit on things and that's why I bring up. You know the manipulation score, the M score. There's at least things happening on balance sheets for these companies that are indicative of weakness, even as inflation is raging still, okay. So it's March 24th, the next Fed meeting we get. I just said it, what, May 2nd and 3rd. Yeah, May 2nd and 3rd. It's about six weeks in between meetings. It's the first week in May, Tuesday and Wednesday. Of course we get to go through the entire month of April. We're gonna get all the March data. We're gonna have the meeting in May. Maybe they do pause, but then we get all that data. The next meeting isn't until June 13th and 14th. So what that's gonna mean is that for the June 13th and 14th meeting, okay. We're gonna get a lot of that data by then. We're probably gonna get non-farm payrolls. What, June 2nd or 9th for the month of May. A lot of data coming out as in, but you're gonna get all of the March data and the May data, a lot of it, prior to the June meeting. Because the May meeting takes place May 2nd and 3rd. So you're not gonna get much of the March data into that meeting, right. It's important to see how much data is gonna come down the line when you start talking about a market pricing that in. I don't see inflation crashing just because of the banking crisis. Was it on a path to pull back anyway? No, not really. Could it make a change? Yes. Does the data say it's going to make a change right now? No, it does not say that, okay. So everything you're hearing, the banking crisis, it's causing a pullback, it is. None of the data has said that yet. The data's gonna be very important to line it up because I imagine my perception is that if we don't get the data, man, okay. Don't even think about cutting. What did he say? He said cutting is not even in our base case right now. I would believe that. Where are the hiking goes? That's a different story. He probably had to hike by 25. I'd say he definitely had to hike by 25 after the ECB went 50. Because if he goes nothing after the ECB goes 50, then what the heck is going on right now, man? Because inflation's not causing you to pause. So if inflation's not causing you to pause and you pause, that means the banking crisis is causing you to pause. He didn't because 25 was probably the way to go. He could pause at the May meeting, but then remember how much data we have by the end of June. In terms of that June 13th and 14th meeting, you're going to get a lot of data to say the least. S&Ps rolling back over a bit, 39.54. The area we were bumping against was 39.70. The lows overnight about 39.40. And yeah, we got one more segment, folks. Yeah, there's that music I thought. So S&Ps down by 24, all the markets in the red. Stay tuned, folks. One more segment, we'll be right back. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger Zen, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger Zen, available to all tigers and tigeresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. 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When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from Veteran Day Trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today, TFNN.com, Educating Investors. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. All right, folks, welcome back, filling in for our man Basil Chapman this morning. He'll be back in the saddle Monday morning. And so next hour, folks, we're gonna have our man, Steve Rhodes, did his program at eight o'clock. So we'll be airing that program right now. Market pretty much right where it was. Right at about eight a.m. Eastern time. We got Fast Market after that. We got our man Larry Pezzavento after that. And we got our man, my dad, Tom O'Brien, live after that from three till four. S&Ps at 39.54 right now. That's a 15-minute bar. You got right back to that 39.70 price point. We've been talking about it. Put it on your chart. That's the low of Wednesday. And where could we head to? He's talking about, man, you really trade off 39.00s in the books, man. You got any shorts? I'd be taking a little action off at 39.00 if we get that. Sounds crazy. 50 plus points from where we're at. 70 plus points from where we're at during the hour. But I said it almost tongue-in-cheek, folks, that maybe we'll get to 39.00 by the time I got off the air. Didn't happen. But keep your eye on the moves yesterday, man. And the day is young, going into a Friday. We're, Steve, we still got some bank stress, okay? Let's jump over to Deutsche Bank. They were just above 9.20. Now you're at 8.91. You're off 7.6% for Deutsche Bank. UBS off 4.2%. JP Morgan off 2 plus percent right now. Bank of America off 2% right now. This doesn't stop, man. Let's see, Goldman Sachs off 2% right now. Morgan Stanley off 4.3% right now. Wells Fargo off 2.9% right now, man. Quite a time in the markets. We jump over to the VIX sitting relatively at 24 on the volatility index. Let's check out the 10-year right now. 160 and 11, we jump over to the dollar index, $103.15 and we'll finish it up with, yeah, that was quite the image, right? Pulled it up during the last show. Chairman Powell, is he gonna save the banks or fight inflation? How about just this chart, folks? The past two weeks from the Fed futures, from talking about 5.5% or plus, how about being at 3.5 by January 24? We will see. Thanks so much, folks. Stay tuned. We've got Steve Rhodes up next. I'm gonna be doing the 11 o'clock update.