 Let's go over to our man Mr. Tim Ord as we do each and every Thursday at 20 past the hour and you can reach Tim folks every trading day at www.Ord-Oracle.com that's www.Ord-Oracle.com Tim Ord, you got your rally here. How are you doing? Yeah, how are things going out there? Things are going good, man. You know, I mean, you know, it's so intriguing, Tim, because, you know, I got you on last week and Maken was, you know, drifting lower, lower the last couple days, but this is quite a rally, right? Yeah, actually, we can skip right to that part, you know, instead of, um, chart one, we can go to actually chart two and kind of, um, actually, this is, uh, the old Weisskopf method. Um, you go to chart two, that's the SPY there. Okay. On the volume charts, I got two red circles around, um, some volume there. Yeah. The first red circle is March 6th, and that was a high that day, it was March 6th, market fell back down, then Mark came back up on March 26th as a second circle, and if you notice it jumped above the previous high of March 6th and it's kind of hard to tell, basically, I'm trying to point out that volume was much higher on March 26th when you jumped above the March 6th high, and, uh, that's, you know, Weisskopf method that's jumping the creek, I guess you might say, so if once you have a sign of strength, I guess, through a previous high, then the previous high has become support, so, uh, I drew up a light pink area, area across that line, where that was, so we, we jumped above a previous high, now previous high has become support, we came back down, and I, uh, said to you this chart early yesterday morning, so it doesn't show really, but the close was what's doing it today, but we went right smack into that area, and what I didn't have on this chart, I do have it, uh, the day before, four, uh, today's what, Thursday, that'd be Tuesday's close, we had train close of 1.35, which is marked there, and we have a tick close of 517 down tick readings, I've done quite a bit of stuff with ticks and trend over the years, and you get a trend reading usually above 1.2, and a tick close below minus 200, there's high probability you're gonna make a low, the same day as those readings to us too, to us latest two days later, well it turns out that low was yesterday, pretty much right on target, and you always want, I always call those readings above 1.2 on the trend, and down tick reading below minus 200 panic readings, and panic always shows up at bottoms, and if you don't have panic readings it's not a bottom, well that panic should have showed up right where that jump to creek, uh, like pink area is, and sure enough it did, right smack where it's supposed to, so, and that's interesting because we really rally to start, I don't know if it's gonna start today or tomorrow, but it came right in on target where it's supposed to, and we really weren't down that much, right, we only just, we only came back to that area, so that's intriguing, right, that we actually got a minus 200 tick, right? Well that's the minimum, this one we had on two days ago was 517 on the close, right, okay, oh, I get it, I get it, you're talking about the close, okay, I get it, right, right, yeah, you have to, you have to do the close, that's when, whenever I bail out on that close, that's usually a good sign, kind of an exhaustion sign, so if you're bullied you kind of want to see that, kind of people just give up and, and I guess puke their lungs, whatever, and that tick on the close kind of shows that, so everybody was kind of buffering on the close on that day, then yesterday the marks down a little bit, but, but volume dropped off, we also noticed that day on volume, so this would be Tuesday's trading really, you had kind of a selling climax, which I point out there, as selling climax is usually when volume jumps about 30% or more, for the higher percentage to jump in volume, the more climatic that move is, and if you get up around 30% or thereabouts, it's usually kind of an exhaust move to downside, that usually works pretty well to the upside and downside, so Tuesday of this week you kind of had an exhaustion move, you had a panic trend reading close, and you had a panic tick reading close, and you're coming right smack into support, so you had quite a bit of evidence that the market was probably going to make a low right around that 405 area, so it worked out, luckily, in my favor, and so I kept going, it had been a while. That's pretty intense. Yeah, so it's working out, now we're getting a decent sign of strength off that, you know, and it's hard to say how high is high, but if we got time, we can jump to that, chart three. No, we definitely, I'm gonna, we're gonna do the next segment, too. Is that cool, Tim? I just did. Yeah, okay, I'm gonna go. Can we stay on this one for a second? Yeah, I do, so, okay, when you have something like this, right, you know, because this was only a shot pullback anyway, right, so right, when you have something like this, is this something that you think that you're gonna have a bullish scenario for a couple weeks, a couple months, you know, what is, what is the number on this thing? No, I'm not, absolutely. You know what I'm saying? Yeah, I'm thinking what this whole thing is, if you look at the bigger charts, I should just do a monthly chart, but basically we've been in trading range since last May. Yes, we have. We've been around trading range, and at the top of that trading range on the monthly chart is around 405, 410 on the SPYs. Okay. I'm thinking we're building cars, I guess, you might, you know, we're building a trading range to either break up or break down. Okay. And my work says we're probably going to go, if you made it at the top of that trading range to the bottom of that trading range, I forgot what the number is, but you know, you come out with a figure that points you back to 470. Well, 470 happens to be the January 2020 high, and that's probably where we're going to go. Are we going to break above that 470? I don't know. That's too far ahead. Yeah, so that's it, so I see what you're saying. I'm mocking up another SPY chart as we're doing this, Tim. So I see what you're saying, that this consolidation is no doubt it's been going on for a long time, and yes, I get what you're saying. So it'd be like the 417 where you jump the creek again, right? And then that's like, okay, exactly. Okay, cool. I see that. I just mocked it up for you. Interesting. Okay. Well, if you do it monthly, it looks closer, it kind of just takes the closes. It comes in around 405, 410 area. Okay, one second. I see it. So I'm thinking 405, 410 is closer. Okay, cool. Stay right, Tim, stay right there. We're coming right back, folks. Our phone number is 877-927-6648. Get on there, Mr. Tim Hoard. You can reach Tim at hoard-oracle.com. Tim and I are coming right back, folks. Welcome back, folks. I doubt. Dow Industries up 524, NASACs up 289, SAPs are up 79. We're talking with our man, Mr. Tim Hoard. And stay tuned, folks, because our man, Mr. Tim Hoard, is going to be doing a workshop for us pretty soon. And Tim Hoard, should want to go to the next shot right now? Yeah, but we can do that. We'll stay on the SAPs for right now. Okay. The only reason I'm bringing this up, I'm not putting the horse before the cart, but if the market, you can see where the trading range, this is a weekly chart of the SPX. Yep. And it goes all the way back to 2019. And so basically, you can see the trading range we've been in since last May. We kind of just flipped sideways here. Yes. And, Rhett, I grew up kind of, you're right, about 2,417, or about 4170, I guess, on the SPYs is where the trendline lies. That's, in my opinion, kind of a neckline right there. Okay. And in my opinion, we're going to jump through that neckline right with the sign of strength. And we're going to break out. The only reason why I say that is to go to the second chart up from the bottom, which is the SPX-VIX ratio. Okay. And if you notice, the market pretty much has kind of traded sideways since, it looks like about February. If you notice the SPX ratio made a higher high. You see a little trendline right there? Yes, I do. And so, okay. So normally, if that's still making higher highs, a lot of times I'll leave the SPX. It'll make a higher high. What you don't want to see is, this market starts to rally, and so we break above the roundoff number 4100 on the SPX. And you rally higher, and that ratio makes a lower high. That's when you get trouble. In other words, the VIX is starting to go up as the SPs are going up. And that's the bearish sign for the market. I do this on a weekly timeframe because... Can you just run through that again for us, Tim, because I had the wrong shot up, just on the SPX and the VIX. I got it up right now. All right. So when the SPX is going up and the VIX is going up, that's a bearish sign. Yes. And so on a daily chart, you get a lot of whipped out. You get too many whipsaws to really get an accurate reading what's going on. So I flip to a weekly chart. Okay. That's the reason why I use a weekly chart. It kind of smooths out all that stuff. If you don't get all these false signals. Yes. But if you go back in time and look what happened in the past, if you look at 2000, 20 area, we had that big crash in March of 2020. I see it. Well, the SPs were making higher highs. It's kind of hard to see. But if you look at the ratio, which is the next chart below the SPX, it made a much lower high. All right. Now is your warning sign that the market wasn't going to go up. And that same thing happened back in, looks like about December, January or December of 2021, January 2022. Same thing happened. You made all-time highs in January. Okay. Look at the ratio and made a lower high. And you can see that. I can. No, I can see it. We can see that pretty clearly. Right. Yeah. So here we're still making higher highs, even though the SP is making higher highs. So we may rally. What I'm thinking is if we do get back to the old highs up around that 4770 area, which is basically the January 2022 high, and we see a divergence on the weekly timeframes where the SPs are making higher highs and the ratio is made a lower high, and I think I bet that happens at the old highs, which is up around 470, which is a long ways up from here. Which is going to blow some minds. Yeah. No, I know. But they listen for, invest as a trade is awesome. Right. No, there's no doubt, man. Right. Yeah. It's a good return. Right. And if you get through this trend line here, what you need, you know, that or 4100 areas, call us where that trend line lies, you're going to need a sign of strength. Well, that's still sitting in front of us. We're sitting right on that line right now. Right. And so in my opinion, you're going to see a sign of strength here, probably in May, because May starts next Monday anyhow. Yeah. And you know, so wild is that, of course, the at the sand selling man go away, and this will be just the opposite. Yeah. Right. Yeah. So might be good. So we may rally up to a high and then maybe we keep going. I don't know. Yeah. But right now, in my immediate term stuff, at least so far, there's no divergence present. And the VIX, or the SPX, the VIX ratios made a higher high suggesting the SP will make a higher high. And so my opinion, you should be long right here. And so that's a, what, 70 points? So that's a good, what, 15 or 12% rally from here or something like that? Oh, yeah. Yeah. No, it's a big number, man. There's no doubt. There's no doubt. Yeah, it's a big number. So that'd be interesting to see, you know, if that works out. But with, you know, technical analysis, you know, sometimes you're getting, you're getting going down this road and sometimes things change. So there's no guarantee we're going to get back to the old highs. But right now it looks favorable. Oh, listen, you might get me changing my head, man. I like it. But you know, tops are really hard to figure out. And this is what I've been working on for the last couple of years. I've been hone it down. And if you go back in time and use that method, I went back all the way to 2000. And it does a pretty well good job picking out highs along, you know, worthwhile highs. Right. Well, you know, it's interesting is that, you know, my take is that when this dollar gets weak, the market loves it. And the dollar's having a hard time holding price. And now with that said, that's why I want to flip to the gold market, because, you know, that that could, I mean, I was thinking the dollar was going to do a counter trend bounce to 106. But if the dollar gives it up and breaks this low, I can see the market going in gold going. So I'm going to pull up this XAU chart. Is that cool? Yeah, we'll do that. But yeah, the XAU use chart with what the middle chart is, is the monthly silver gold ratio. And I took it back as far as I could, which is about 1995. And this, this is a monthly chart. So these signals are not meant to be like one or two weeks long. These signals are big signals. And what I have a three part signal on this, the bottom window is the percent volume. The next one up is the rate of change. And one above the monthly silver gold ratio is the RSI. When two of those three get in bullish territory, I consider that a signal. Okay. So some, some signals, all three of them got triggered, but you gotta at least have two of them to get triggered. Yes. And the last one we had in August of last year got triggered. So this signal right now is, you know, close to nine months old and it's still in force. But the previous signals, measured the length of how much the rally lasted, I guess you might say, or the one in 2003, that was a 90% gain. One in 2008, that was a three or an eight, 3% gain. Next one was 120% gain. The one 100% gain. So anyhow, I said, well, that's a good gain. So if this signal is 100%, then XAU should go to around 200. I may do more, but probably not much less. So these signals last a while. So yeah, the monthly signal is on a five signal since last August. And we're not near done with it yet. Yeah. And the XAU right now is a 134 folks. Well, listen, Tim, this is a pleasure, man. Look forward to speaking to you next Thursday. And folks, don't forget, you can reach Tim at odd-oracle.com. And as I said, Tim's going to be doing a workshop for us in the near future. Tim, thanks so much. Have a great one. A safe one. All right. Thank you. Thank you. Stay right there, folks. Come right back.