 Dah the show must go on it is Friday on the independent investor channel live stream So good to be with you guys So happy to see you so happy to see 2022 three weeks away from being over Who else is ready for it to be over with? Although they're already talking about 2023 being a complete loss. I I want you guys to really understand what I've been talking about over the last six years and thank goodness that You guys get an even voice through youtube about You know when the market is high Everything's great and every everybody's excited Times like this in 2022. It's funny people seemingly Find other things to do with their time They don't want to talk about financial markets. I don't want any part of it When things are bad, that's when they want to pay the least attention And I think people need to find a lot more of a neutral application because life Is not short life is long. You guys really need to understand that You're not investing for next year Okay It's it's a foregone conclusion that we're going to enter into a recession in 2023 The opinions are rampant. It's It's determined that the rate hikes have gone up way Way too fast to curb inflation To the point where it is a foregone certainty that we have to enter into a recession in 2023 This is the consensus that I get. This is the pulse that I get This is the propaganda that is being sold to the masses to understand that It's time 2010 to 2020 is over And this 2020 To 2030 is really starting off to be a rough ride Um, I was just talking to my friend kiles in the back here He's going to be joining us for the live stream tonight a little bit giving us Some insights I think the big thing that's being missed right now and it's mentioned every now and then and that is the state of real estate right now It's something that I've mentioned I I think in my own personal view with the portfolio and the investments being in a plane for the last couple years I haven't really done a lot guys Uh, except for buying I was just telling kyle. I added about 75 shares of s chd just to date to the portfolio, which was Uh, did about a 5 500 dollar bill or something right? It's what I buy anymore that and gas from a truck but I've really hunkered down on understanding that am I More eligible now with the retraction in the market over the last 20 months and I've been tracking this since january Of 2021 Okay, all of 21 21. I was talking about this and Naria was an opinion out there About the market tracking off on the charts. Okay now it's been Much more fortified in 2022 with the fed making its aggressive move against the after shock of the 2020 Global pandemic and the effects of of stimulus and the effects of inflation, etc They they had to do it. Okay. We knew that it was Inevitable that they were going to have to move against the impacts of providing such relief to the masses out there but I think entering into 2022. I'm of the opinion that perhaps maybe were more on the back end Of of coming out of what has been a fairly dark couple of years here to start this new decade off Okay, um We had to re-rate The real estate industry I don't think we're going to have such a digression in real estate prices Per se because people's understanding of what it means to have a domicile. It's not just sticks and bricks anymore It's it's a domicile to potentially take safe haven against what has proven to to be A fairly systemic shock to the market and I think anybody that was coming out of the last decade There's not a soul on earth that would have forecasted what we were in store for in 2019 and going into 2020 People are still groveling from the effects of the global pandemic And it has put systemic shocks to the markets in all facets global markets Here domestically real estate I think people's psyche has changed. I think they're spending habits have changed. I think their priorities have changed I really do There's nobody on this earth that has been immune from the effects of the global pandemic and and here we sit closing out 2022 and hopefully people make their way into the channel And and and seek out an independent Opinion that of which I have I'm here domiciled in new york And it doesn't appear to me when I'm out on fifth avenue people are struggling Now this is a utopia here. So fairly bad example, but I often challenge this idea of an inevitable recession. Okay um because the yield curve in inverts and short-term rates are actually Larger than long-term rates that that's a hundred percent certainty Now there's been 11 out of 12 occurrences. What where this has happened. So it's a it's a fairly interesting Indicator and it has historically proved to be a very accurate one But but I want to caution you my friends. We are not in Normal times right now. We are not People are nervous. I think people are curbing their their spending habits I know amazon came out and said that they had the best black friday around the thanksgiving time Um, I don't know how real that was because it certainly didn't catch any momentum with the stock You've got a lot of what I would consider to be some discretionary names that teslas off over 50 percent year to date Um, a lot of these companies that really don't deserve to be off microsoft really comes to my mind Um, google's had a tough go of it Um, and there's really there hasn't been a whole lot of stocks out there that have been immune to the downturn Um, there's been a few bright spots in the market might come back to health care and utilities That have really stood up and and and I know this because I monitor those bright spots in the sectors In the portfolio but outside of that You know crypto has really taken a nosedive and I I think we really need to take a pause here going into 2022 and recalibrate The last thing you want to do is panic yourself off of financial markets That's the last thing you want to do because I will leave you with this We will take a short break, but I will leave you with this We are not investing to enter into financial security Into 2023 at least I'm not I'm 45. I'm investing for the future And I'm investing for that opportunity to look at the decisions that I've made and made decisions based on those good Decisions that I've made to put capital away to invest during volatile times, which I have And I'm not looking for that payoff next year. Look if the pundits are right and we do enter into a recession No problem. I'll keep the status quo and I'll keep buying financial markets Every buy that I make right now while these markets are recessed The harder it is to buy markets like this The more opportunity you will have to reap those rewards at some inevitable time Down the line guys. I'll be back with you in just a moment The house man love to welcome him to the channel Get his quick insights and intro to the group here has been a friend of the channel for many many moons here Kyle, what's up, man? Man, there's a lot going on. I love the s chd though, man They have the vym the s chd these dividend ets be crushing this year but I was actually just talking about the valuations on them because uh I mean the s and p when you're talking about things like google like i'm still at least in the beginning of next year A little hesitant because I do like tesla. I do like google, but uh, it's been paying off for me to sit on my hands for a little longer here I mean I mean google when you look at these advertising budget. I mean you're an advertising you're like, you know Me i've seen all these companies start taking massive cuts You know 50 revenue drops and publicly traded advertising companies I mean, I I don't know how bad this recessionary period's gonna get but I don't think we're out of it Just yet, so we'll see if the uh, you know what christmas brought you that uh the christmas holiday What's your thoughts on that man spending? How did you see consumers in new york? um It's it's crazy like I said, it's hard for me to compare new york, which is a utopia To the to the rest of the country, but I think it's unfair to actually Take a gauge of of the us populace You know with with 300 million people here. We're pretty lucky We're relatively Lucky across the board And so our standard of living is hard to suggest but a recession to me I I go back to the 30s and it's like people are standing in a bread line with You know with brant waiting for brown water to survive I don't I don't think we're there man. I I just think that there's So much information that we're inundated with all the time. I think it messes with people's psyche I just want to make sure that I'm cautioning people not to allow those injects to Effect you and and make you succumb to emotional decisions. That's what I wish for I don't know. I think this market though is just uh, you know Like we were talking about before the stream too with some of these fixed investments Because like there's just conversations that a lot of people are having but you can make so much on cash with zero risk It's just you know Go back several years ago. I started investing always listening to like John bogel jack bogel, you know, all these guys saying that, you know, you need a mixed portfolio bonds ETFs all this stuff and I'm like who's buying bonds. I'm like they don't pay anything Why would I want to bond at 1% and now all of a sudden there's fixed investments? Like I was just talking about the the high interest savings account stocks There's actually ETFs. They just take your money and put them in high interest savings accounts You get 4.7% here in canada pay pretty cool with like zero volatility risk Caching and like it's just fascinating. I'm like, man people aren't really having these conversations But if you're not like I love that you're mentioning things like schd though because I mean like, you know They've been the true haven that was my big bet at the beginning of this year Because it was a pretty big pivot for me to sell, you know, my individual stocks and kind of just go into ETFs But I think we got uh, you know made it we all got a little greedy through 2020 2021 But yeah, you know the yeah the pivoting for me was rough for me Kevin It was like the guy just did it after diamond handing and convincing everyone to hold these shit stocks Meanwhile, I'm holding like things like google and facebook and all these companies and they're starting to get hit And I'm like I can't do it I think it's better to be in the ETF just to see how this rolls out And it saved me quite a little bit selling out of facebook at 20 or 230 after a drop to now I went all the way down to like a hundred bucks, right? Though I still like my family still holds some exposure and they're they're happier holding long term than I am I do I do. Yep. I still hold long term I made a ton of money with facebook on the way up and I'm not I'm not going to sell it down here Still a fabulous company and in 10 years. It's going to be fine You know, the question is whether or not you try to pick a bottom here Obviously more attractive here. I think the I think the upside potential is far more attractive than the downside risk See, I think the the problem with the risk though, right is the fundamental business is amazing But like, you know that that's what I kind of kind of keep reminding myself with teslas You kind of get caught in the fantasy because I I was literally just playing vr But the problem is is like, you know unprofitable businesses You kind of got to keep reminding yourself that you know teslas is a great company If self-driving existed if these robotics were making money But right now it's purely a fantasy sometimes it's better to wait and overpay for it when it works rather than You know, take the risk of getting in a little bit earlier But I that's only because I'm in this risk-off mindset. I'm sure when things pivot out I'll be more risk on but for this environment, man, like you I I love holding these dividend ETFs Bonds fixed investments some individual stocks with the reeds and utilities and just boring Boring stuff, but it works. You know, I haven't blown up my account this year. So Yeah, no, exactly. Um, I haven't changed a thing with my passives matter of fact One account that I hold that I've just dollar cost average and I Don't pay much attention to it. I'm actually up year over year by just continuing to fund those markets And those are that's just an et index fund Uh portfolio that's kind of like my rock my 401k type of thing. It's the tsp through the government So it's like a 401k, but uh, well just the old onus, you know, I paid the least attention to that um, and and it's and it's doing really well, but uh Yeah, I mean, I'm I'm of the mindset to understand that every aspect of risk In your different disciplines in your portfolio at certain times are going to be subject to risk Oh, you know And it's really difficult to bounce, you know back and forth from from one to the other You know, I'm really I'm about as heavy dabbling in the micro cap spaces. I've ever been just well Traditional schools of thought would suggest that I'm crazy but It led it led us into this downturn And see that's the thing is my dollar cost average doesn't change Like people need to understand that on a fairly nominal salary Me and my wife. I mean we make a fairly nominal salary. We work very hard for our money But every month that goes by we're north of a couple thousand dollars that go into our savings in a lot of different capacities That's pretty impressive. Yeah moda should be motivating for people out there because we do make sacrifices We don't live crazy Frugal, but we do make sacrifices to do those things However, I have Justified looking at some of the value propositions and some of the most recent companies that You know, we're looking at and they are fascinating. Yeah, they are fascinating and If they don't ever turn out to anything Well, no problem. I'm totally willing to accept that But let's put that aside for a second. There's some real value Being created right now that the entire micro cap space will and always does traditionally Lead into a recession and then also lead us out So so so where they get this credited right on the onset and nobody ever wants to touch that stuff Because future cash flows are not being valued in the way that they would during a bull market You get no credit for no cash flow and you get very little if any credit for future cash flow expectation So that's the micro cap space In in in a nutshell. So if you've got a really good story, that's just not enough right now and you'll get punished but I'm doing a lot of due diligence I discard about 98 percent of the companies that I look at But for the few that kind of strike my attention, I will engage in that due diligence and Dare I say in a few instances take a take a small position relatively small But it's the most attractive area. Yeah, I can suck it away in utilities too Kyle and I do I do and health care and the dividend payers and You know schd is a new holding of mine just here in 2022 to kind of buffer the volatility I own it in a couple of spots and some fairly big positions But for for some for some reason the micro cap is attractive to me and I don't have that validation I don't know somebody might say I'm crazy, but time what time will tell I think you're shining a light on is your your risk tolerance, right? Because I think even though I'm younger than you I think we come from a different work perspective because I think people have to understand You have a very very well said. Yeah, very well said you can for me I'm always horrified because my income is so volatile because it's based off You know the job that I'm in which two years ago. I wasn't doing what I'm doing now Two years ago. I had I did a job for 15 years and then I flipped and now this job is in question because it's so volatile And it's just like, you know, so I'm always on edge of like, you know, I need to make sure that You know, I always want that income, but I also want it to be as stable as possible I'm not chasing seven eight percent yields. I'm very happy with a three percent yield a yield across the whole portfolio Holding holding vym holding bonds like that yield is going to make me over a thousand a month Come into the end of this year And you know, I know I could spend that money and I wouldn't sacrifice the growth of the portfolio I think that's where a lot of investors get mixed is they just want these huge yields But I I can hardly find a huge yield that doesn't underperform the market You know, I still believe in total returns and I'd love to just be diving more into small cap But you know, if I lose my job, I don't want to be forced to be like, okay Well, what am I going to get rid of out of the portfolio the stuff that's growing There the stuff that you know, or the stuff the stuff that's paying the dividends, right? It's just like, you know, I it's just kind of I don't want to have to sell stuff And if I do I don't want to be in a position where I'm selling growth stocks or something that I want to hold for 10 or 20 years Yeah, the vym the schd the good dividend payers You don't buy those with the expectation that you'll ever need to sell those ever But you make such a good point I would just want to put this into context for people out there And they may think I'm an asshole for mentioning this But my pension alone is is worth a million dollar portfolio until I die So you come back and it's like hopefully that got your attention because People need to hear when I'm so proud of you man for saying that and I'm proud of you for doing what you're doing You're you're making really good income right now, but you're young and you need to like it's critical Like you've got to do it and you will continue to do that but to understand that like Position that you're in you specifically is so important for people to understand that You know, you've got to set up those what ifs those contingencies those exit plans and you're not exiting from micro cap Micro cap is really really tricky micro cap is one of those things to where You're never going to enter at the right time never You may have to sit on you may have to sit on a digression for multiple years And that's a game that a lot of people are not willing to play And and nor that should they even be willing to play that they might think they are they should avoid it at all cost It's not it's not right for the vast majority of people out there I don't I think it's too uh because you get too emotionally connected and it's hard to not deal with the volatility And actually I'm a surprise because my uh fiance is holding stocks that you know, I don't hold like mind med She still holds some of these she doesn't care. She's like I'll hold them for 20 years Um, but I think a lot of people if they're smart right now And they have the ability to not be caught up in this interest-raising environment They have cash a stable job I would have nearly maybe not in new york But like I'm starting to see the cracks in where I live and people are feeling the pain of variable rate mortgages And like I have my bosses people. I know they're paying over 125 150 a month They're up to almost 1200 extra payments and a lot of people are getting squeezed man And you can be able to walk into those homes. They were looking for a house I'm not much into real estate not that I'm going to do this But you can see the value in it and it's not often real estate gives you those opportunities Nothing's saying the market's going to correct a lot But there will be people that'll be willing to take a lot less in the market Especially here in toronto where 50 percent of the selling volumes dried up like 50 percent of the buyers are gone It's just nuts I mean, there's just so much volume dry up that if someone's desperate and they have to get out They're going to take a better deal than the market's offering So it's just like if you got cash and you can afford these interest rates Or you have family that could privately loan you money at a maybe three or four percent instead of a six or seven I mean, I'd be I you know, that's I think that's where the real opportunity is because inevitably the real estate Like you said, I believe is going to come back. I don't think it's just going to you know, again markets are different I mean canada where I live specifically. We're seeing 20 30 corrections But again, I still think because we have supply and demand problems. Nothing has really changed It's just that buyers don't want to take the risk, you know in this interest raising environment They're going to sit on their hands and see what happens So I mean, I think this is where the opportunities open up same with stocks like you're saying with small caps too though, right? Like if this is where if you have the cojones and you weren't stupid and you margined yourself or took on debt I mean, this is where you get to make those opportunities. This is where you make real money, right? You're buying things at crazy discounts compared to they were a year ago So, um, I don't know. I'll let you know in a couple of years. You know how transparent I am I don't care. I'll come in and say I lost it or I'll come in and say I'm a millionaire And I'll be the same person. I don't I don't get all fired up about stuff and if it's a rendering from my investment I'll say that too Things have been really really good with the business right now And that's a whole side conversation to have That I never ever would have thought would have been A wonderful supplement to volatile times in the stock market Hell everything else in my life is just kicking some ass The only thing that I need is a stock market that's going to cooperate and I'm at my seven fingers Yeah, 100 we've been very blessed because a lot of people complain about like because that's the thing with jobs It's like if you securely secularly focus on like tech all you're gonna hear is job loss job loss job loss But you go to energy job hiring you go to restaurants job hiring like there's so many sectors That are just demanding and they can't get it They're raising the wages on them and like same with like you're saying like our businesses Which again, I'm always terrified for because I'm seeing volatility everywhere in it But still like you said through 2021 for how bad of a year this was I mean, I'm still you know I'm walking away very happy surprisingly. It's allowed me to set myself To be very like not comfortable because by god, no means I'm not a millionaire If I'm lucky here with a good paycheck, I'll hit 400 000 CAD not living in them usd yet But still I'm for 30 years old like I'm in between that and my fiancee, which we won't talk about her stuff I mean, we're very like well off enough to survive any recession like we're very blessed to have parents Families that have helped us do this and all this stuff. So I mean I can't complain by any metric Here's what's always intrigued me about you man I'll give you the best compliment that I could ever give you You're one of those guys that is the quintessential Think and grow rich like you've mentally got it wired in and that's what people need to understand about you And me and a lot of other people out there We care about this stuff We really do The hustle is great, but there was a time where the hustle did not render any any income Okay, we we were doing it for the love of the hustle and I still do it for the love of the game Like I talked about once the dollar amount goes to seven figures Do you think that's all for me? I do that for the three people I support in my household I don't give a shit You guys wonder why I come on and I wear the same t-shirt every week because like come on Ryan man Pull to pull one suit out of your out of your closet You know, I mean you got to go buy yourself a t-shirt at the outlet store But you guys need to understand that as a businessman through and through to the heart It is about the business And I am a I am that is the sacred piece that I look to maintain when I do business with people My business interactions with people down to the granular email that I sent people It's always on the up and it's looking to maintain the integrity of that business transaction That's it. It's cool to be humbled today. I think a lot of people recognize that right? Like we're not in the 1980s or 90s with all these big rappers buying these huge Like we're well past that kind of influence. I think and it's funny because I was just digging a little bit because just reminded My fiance, she's like you look like a douche because You know, I don't wear branded stuff, but literally everything I'm wearing right now. I've got these Jordans I didn't think I even got a gift in doing work Valenciaga And I didn't even buy it. I didn't buy this watch. I didn't buy this ring Like You know hundreds of dollars on this And it's just a funny way you say you keep wearing the same shirt And I think that's uh very appreciative because that's the hustle. I don't think people appreciate enough You know, I always like saying that you know if you have time like and you're going for walks Find something you love doing because you can always monetize or I like if you love walking You're in a suburban area walk by starbucks turn on You know uber eats picks something up for somebody drop it off their house make an extra 10 15 bucks Like there's so many little things people can do Uh to take advantage of that mindset You're saying like the thinking grow rich and then you know just started having that investment opportunity because That's the real thing, right? Like there's no value if you can't create it and then obviously, you know deploy it and learn how to deploy it Correctly and I think you've done a fabulous job. I mean and again having that family I think really motivates you as well, right? It's kind of a similar thing with me because I've had to help my family through some stuff this year And yeah, I was so blessed that I had emergency fund cash, you know five grand here. You need it. It's good Like that feeling I don't think people really appreciate until they get slapped upside the head and they have nothing to fix their problem Um, so that's that's the key, right? So I can work as hard as I possibly can And not have enough to help somebody what I can't live with Is not working hard enough And not having the money to come back and help when when I'm needed. See what I'm saying I've got that's why I Do this project the way that I do with the ferocity that I do it because Hopefully people sense That there is a sense of urgency with me and I believe there's a sense of urgency with everybody else You know you talk about 30 So you're running ahead of the game You're running ahead of the game and I've known so many people that are complacent and they're complacent to a point where They get to the mid 30s 40s and they're like man alive I I need to get going. I need to start going and the time to start is when you have that realization that You only have so much time to figure it out Man life is a beautiful thing and I don't know what motivates people I mean like I like I've shared with the group here I used this last couple years of volatility as a time to really kill it and I've taken on some habits That have been incredible for me. I'm in the gym at five o'clock every morning every morning. I don't miss it And like it you should see like I'm a machine at work It makes me an applicator in my in my in my profession With my side hustle I think you guys would probably see a different independent investor channel if I truly did feel like I had more time to devote to the craft Because the majority of my day see I have not trend transitioned to entrepreneur I have not made that transition. This is still a side hustle and I think it's demeaning to say that at this point because it's More than that But you're very blessed man. I that stability I think as I age is something that I appreciate a lot more Even though like I've done very well for myself But there's just when you when you don't have that stability or some job that's very reliable Like the sketchiness that's always in the back of your mind gives you that anxious feeling But I also want to offer anecdote because there's one complaint I get a lot man is like people are like, oh you guys don't live You don't live like all that stuff you got to spend money have fun And I'm like Like if people could have seen how I've lived my life up to this point Like I think people need to understand like if you love doing something or you love like in its fun You can get paid to do it you can get paid to do anything you want travel You can become you know travel agent like my uncles did they go from cruises all the time you can become Flight stewardess pilots. I mean I was I worked with the production company entertainment industry full time I got paid To go to places people had to pay to go to like I just don't think people understand like you can do both You can have an incredibly fun life Yeah, they'd not go broke and wake up in your 40s like yeah We're like that scares the shit out of me like I don't want to get up my 40s and be like shit I'm just figuring this out now. Like that's what scares the shit out of me Like by then I'm hoping I have it well figured figured out and you know more into semi retirement by them Like some of the youtubers like hidden freedom and some of your friends I'm like that's where I want to be at 40 not being like oh damn now's the time to start right like So I mean I yeah, I mean, I'll probably hang it up from my career at 59 If something crazy happens to where I'm sitting on a couple mil Which is Absolutely in the cards. Absolutely in the cards um Then I could hang it up sooner than that But uh, yeah, you won't quit you'll be like me man. You're not youtube. I won't ever quit youtube Social media. I will not quit. Here's the thing man. I don't I do this project people need to understand that if I didn't Do this project I would go effing nuts I have to have a voice. I have to have a voice man As unique as it is it's only mine And it would drive me up the wall if I couldn't share it with people I it would go go crazy. You want to take this question? Ken oh the tesla semi or highly on Any kathy wood fans. Oh, sorry. I'm reading the top comments I was just noticing because that highly on video you made was really entertaining any kathy wood fan here um, you know Kathy was a hard one to wrap my head around here just because um, yeah You know because i'm not a value investor and i'm not a growth investor I don't advocate one or the other because I think the markets are pure fugazi I mean evaluation mattered facebook wouldn't be where it's at like there's just no doubt about it same with ali baba You know and you wouldn't see tesla or amazon trading in these pees from 50 to 80 I mean it's just um, you know, I kind of found myself being more or less a trend investor trying to find companies that have Trendable futures and how hold on to them for three to five years because I don't think I've ever really made huge money on Looking at cash flow or valuations. It was purely just the luck of the draw Because I mean I got in early with that idea right like I think uh 2016 or whenever I started or 2014 when I started investing The first stock I ever bought was canopy growth corp and the only thing in my head was You know, they're legalizing it in canada in 2018 I'm just going to buy the largest current company and just see what happens and sure enough You know the wave came caught it with tesla mine med I found myself finding a lot of similar positions But um, yeah, I think it's fun listening to a spanger because we both come from very different mindsets I gotta ask you though, man that That uh, what are you gonna pick your tesla's uh semi or the highly on that video you posted was fabulous Because it was very kind of double entendre. You know there's a very lot of levels to that if you actually listened I thought it was very intriguing I like uh, you know that tesla semi I was kind of impressed by but uh, like I said I It is impressive. I love tesla the valuation just needs to come down or they need because I mean man That the future of robotics and AI I think is just gonna be beyond I think it's gonna it's gonna easily outweigh the value of the iphone. I don't think people understand the way Have you used open AI? So Anybody that's bored go to a website. It's called beta.openai.com and sign up to it and just mess around on the playground Your mind will be blown this thing writes code. It's like google on crack It writes man. Okay. This is my little hidden gem here for anybody that's like into blogging or website stuff I use this thing to write my blogs right now I'm literally using an AI to write my blogs about stocks because it does most of the frame I can't explain this thing man. You tell it to write like a trading bot that's based off like moving averages It'll write you all the code Just watch some videos on it. I don't think people understand the severity of AI and My buddy made a good point. He's like think of a band like if you like acdc Imagine this AI is going to learn their entire genre their voices and it's going to be able to make music based off them But newer music same with top 40 that the AI'll just learn what people like and it'll make its own And people think that's so far fetched but just go use this open AI side It's a very simple format that really is so intuitive. It seems like how is a robot doing this? It's literally google, but it makes it for you answers the questions for you does the work for you If kids are in school right now and they don't know this their homework would be completed by a bot You know, it's just it's happening right now and it's it's visceral man. It's exciting I think to your point. I think we're probably First batter maybe second batter in the first inning of a multi decade game here So what tesla and hyzon and nicola and highly on are working right now They haven't even put their big toe in a very very very big lake And I think people understand that The idea of Removing diesel from the equation is absurd. I'm I'm one of them. Okay But to not entertain the prospects of alternative fuels See, I see this with my profession more on the ocean than I do over the road Okay, and those mandates have been capped at 2050 in accordance with the international standards. Okay And there have been initiatives put into place to actually move ourselves off of heavier fuel And more looking at the alternative solutions The question is what are those solutions? Do we run hydrogen directly? Do we run ammonia directly? Do we run methanol directly? You know, do we run a bev type of application? And my opinion is that I think we have a very very blue ocean ahead of us And a very agnostic future that of which is not going to be free of diesel However, to provide ourselves a little bit of optionality in the space will probably be very very attractive Where fleets can look and say I can put a tesla on a route here with 350 on on that route And get it to the end to draw that charge to incur zero downtime Right, even though it takes 30 minutes to charge And then bring that unit back the next day or or push it on to the next hub See it gives us optionality instead of being subjected to the diesel market, which We all know the controlling entities globally that affect the diesel market and that's not going to change either Okay And like you said long haul is still a bit questionable These tesla trucks are still in question, right? Because it seems like they're just kind of going through a build-up phase where they're just testing them I think pepsi's testing them. I think they bought that see What are you going to do? You're going to buy a media spot and just pay the money to advertise pepsi and show somebody drinking it Or are you going to show that you're flying the flag of green by going with the flagship name tesla, right? And maybe they get some research and development back out of that project That's really worth it so they can make some educated decisions about what they do going forward I don't think they've chosen a bull by any means But pepsi's big enough Very different companies too, right like honestly, you know, I think in the midterm you'll make more money off highly on if you have that kind of speculative risk Kind of you know mindset in your portfolio just because like you're saying it's they're kind of attacking one specific detail And they're gonna like scale it I think tesla's going to become more of an etf because they're just ability to optimize every aspect of their business Like it's just a marvel. I mean they're building tracks now They're training their cars across the the entire country The way that's what's going to be fun in 20 years is to see the tesla of today and how it evolves over the next couple of decades That's the intriguing piece. Um But they got a long way to go man. Like I just I love the I do but but now's the time you want to be having those conversations. Yeah, you know, I I mean the stock's off over 50 percent with highly on The story has changed so much since coming to public markets And I fear that the bottleneck that is going to exist at the end of 2023 is going to be real And you can only hope for a log jam to break up a little bit because they've put themselves in a bit of a corner and let me explain The idea of them just segwaying into the uh, original equipment manufacturer in this case will be peter built They're helping them make the initial providing the chassis etc but The story has changed so much in that Peter built is not just going to take highly on in and say yeah, sure. We'll cut out 2,500 units a year for you No problem It doesn't it doesn't work that way and that Was a piece of data that I didn't have on the initial onset in 2020 when I did my due diligence As a matter of fact, I would suggest that all the pieces of due diligence that I did on the onset in 2020 have now transitioned to a place where It a few catalysts need to happen. There's pressure on the oems. There's pressure on the fleets There's government mandates and state mandates. There's credits. There's tax incentive Etc. So you have all of these things out there floating around None of them have come together to actually mean that a true product is going to march off of the oem line And be delivered at a constant pace and dare I suggest at a margin that's attractive because Right now highly on is backed so far into the corner that these first few units that they turn out are going to be Losses they will not make a dime on the first few because the cost To incur to get those units to final and deliver those to the to the customer They're not going to get that margin enjoyment from those bull quarters that they could get if they were Buying those those products that are hard to get now during the supply chain issue They're not doing that. They're having to piece these things together. So There's a lot of headwind and when you talk about risk for or appetite for risk Yeah, it's there. I can I can build a bear case just as easy as anybody and the bulls hate me for it They hate me for it, but um, I've done that as a savvy investor to understand how I coin my bull I Know you have to I won't I won't budge on this It's a very bipolar industry You really have to because I think people think like I've been real negative on the companies I used to own but I'm only negative on them because it's like a parent It's like I want you to work, but I see your flaws Well, well you stated right you stated that facebook's core business is still strong I can only presume that you're you're you're referring to legacy facebook, but That the the amount of rnd that has got into the meta and the massive shift Has has provided this shock To to to would be shareholders to understand or not to understand if the money that's been dumped into This new initiative is going to render the success of the past as we march forward So we're in this little bit of phase. So when you say legacy facebook I'm kind of in that camp to say god you were kicking ass You you reinvented advertising, you know You had it and they still have that But a lot of those dollars are going into the new initiative and that's how zuckerberg thinks You know, he's he's just and I don't hold on it. I mean they're I think they're Five years out I think because like zuckerberg said like they're trying to merge the two together Right like getting glasses to be as thin as possible and off of the augmentation So they're literally doing it from both angles to start narrowing it into each other But the problem is is like the experience like is there it's going to be the future to some extent It's just a matter of is facebook with their You know reality labs just becoming the next myspace where apple and everyone all the big guys that have the money to Compete are just messing around seeing how they're doing it and are going to come up with something That's you know like the iphone that just destroys blackberry and these other companies It's like yeah, that's the speculative aspect of it, right? But I honestly and again if any facebook fans out there I use the oculus Shit you not ask my fiance at least five days a week At least five days a week for an hour and a half or two hours like i'm on I it's fun. I love it. It gives me exercise. It's social. I you know, man alive I haven't got enough testimony along the unit. I don't I don't have never tried it I don't know all the time But I am damn I've been obsessed with it since I got it like a year and a half ago or whatever and I haven't stopped using it. So I mean if there's any testament I don't like the idea of them moving to the business front of it right away because I think gaming And you know human interaction and what they're trying to achieve is mostly in gaming And that's where it's going to come from initially and a lot of us were pissed that the new vr I mean I would have bought it if it was at like a thousand bucks, but it's not meant for gaming the batteries crap You know, it's it's it's like why would you go so immediately in that direction when you know what? Probably most of the end users are primarily using it for today because we're not using it for business, right? I mean, all right. Probably, you know the the part of the web. We will leave on the download here Reality side of that or games. All right. I got I got to do a q&a for the ca rob Do you think nicola with partner with tesla? No the answer is no Okay, I just gave you a quick elevator 30 seconds on the on the bare bottleneck Theory with highly on and highly on has a badass product. Okay Nicola, I I'm not so interested in their product because their capex is so high Okay, part of my billish thesis around highly on is their lean business model, but that business model When I say lean when you're burning 135 million a year Um, and that's your capex and you don't have a clear path to profitability That's the risk Nicola doesn't have that clear path to profitability and their capex is significantly higher than highly on because they are an oem I wouldn't see any strategic benefit at all for tesla Making that move the answers. No, so Yeah, it'll be neat to watch. I love that you're covering the story. You've been with it so long as so many people have flopped out It's kind of neat to see how consistent you've been, you know, I don't know about nicola. I mean, we're watching You know, I like I said, I'm not caught up on these enough to make any, you know The definitive opinions on these things it comes down to hydrogen Right. So so nicola has really put a lot of faith in the bev segment With a lack of infrastructure and the hydrogen technology. Okay hydrogen in theory You would think is just a phenomenal energy source. Okay Hydrogen is not a phenomenal energy source. It's hard to transport. It's hard to take. It's hard to keep Happy it is dangerous. It's flammable Right. It's just a difficult come on. What we've known historically is that methanol LNG Renewables fossil fuel diesel all the way up crude. We use it for everything. We use it for everything plastics. It's fantastic So this idea of of taking, you know, the the hydrogen out of that molecule breaking it and then using it as as as fuel is Scientifically not a good idea. I don't understand why there's so many people that jump on this bandwagon I don't get it Um, I think it could be but to actually split the molecule Right. If it's not being done in a green sense, then you're actually being more pollutive By going through that if you're willing to go through the green hydrogen process and produce the hydrogen in that manner Yes, it could be one of many viable solutions But the problem with nicola is that they are a two-trick pony and I think both of them have very very flawed business models and the bev Is up against tesla They're in the exact same headwind when they're looking to penetrate a market without ample infrastructure And they are up against a utility grid That is not just going to cut permits to these companies to take inevitable Or infinite power to power these power these trucks in the way that they believe that it's going to be powered It's just not going to happen Utility companies man. They control it. They do I agree. I mean, it's funny listening to these guys If there's one thing I can I can give some advice on here as much as I love tesla A smart person would own none of these automakers because so far tesla and for to the only two companies to not declare bankruptcy Through their entire history and gm's done it so many times I just I don't it's such a horrible low margin business tesla's too overvalued It needs to like you're buying it you're speculating on its future if you're buying gm or ford I mean, you're just talking about really low margin businesses that are just horribly integrated from the bottom up I mean, I've always hated the auto industry and have avoided it like the plague you guys should just if you're buying Yeah You want margin like there's so many companies making 30 to 50 percent I work with small caps that are pulling in 60 percent margins off their business because they're all digital base I mean why buy an auto company that has to make 100 billion to pull in You know what a 10 15 percent margin. It's abysmal like I don't know There's just uh not to belittle like I know the gm tesla that conversation always gets super heated But like, you know, I I just see in my future Like I just don't see like the phone industry man. I think most of the auto industry is going to dissolve into a few companies I imagine tesla will be one of them, but I just can't see all these companies competing at scale The big thing right now though and the problem with tesla that actually gm has on them is I think the chevy volt They have a hybrid right now. That's like I think 25 or 30 000 or something like that I mean the big problem is is why am I going to buy a 40 50 000 tesla when I could buy a 10 000 used Gasoline car where you know that extra 30 40 grand will fill up the gas tank for the entire lifetime of the vehicle And still leave me tens of thousands left over right so until these cars get to like a 20 30k range of like value then right now we're still just in this premium And you know, we need to get it marketable to everybody and make it we need to get it marketable It's falling off in china I don't I can't say that it's falling off here in the u.s. I tell you what man I drive the roads here and every other car is a tesla So I think the demand is fairly heavy, but I I do consider it to be a fairly luxury type of discretionary Um item and the people who do pursue owning a tesla, man, but they're they're all about it I do want to address one question here Uh, heli himself says hydrogen is the future Um, I think he's playing gamesmanship. I think you need to pay it a little closer attention and read between the lines About it again, but when ilan musk says that you know, the guy that pretty much revolutionized the entire You call him one hate the guy say he bought tesla and he didn't do it himself Yeah, yeah, I know something about the future of electric cars and it's not going to be hydrogen Yeah, so the funny thing about this right is it kind of cannibalizes his own business model In that okay hydrogen down the line when available Is going to have an iteration of the hyper truck erx Hydrogen model right the the irony in that is the agnostic model of the erx can burn hydrogen Okay, so why wouldn't you just opt for a generator that can burn hydrogen ammonia regular diesel? more efficiently I mean again I keep coming back to this optionality and people want to keep coming back to me and say Hydrogen's the way of the future. It's the only way of the future and I'm like you just need to stop smoking so much And figure out that Fuel in and of itself is valuable. Okay Look at how crazy things get when the plight price just fluctuates on crude oil Okay, there's a reason for that is because crude oil touches everything it runs jets Okay, it makes our plastic it is in everything that we do it is that important And to suggest somehow that we're not looking at the total landscape And understanding how we can extract the value out of the entire landscape is fairly short-sighted in my opinion Yeah, I've heard healy say this and I think he is talking tongue-in-cheek to give an acknowledgement to the competition He can't fully believe that he can't as smart as he is There's no way he believes that in its entirety no way I'll leave people with two bets here if you're speculative now I'm not in that nature like I used to be but if I was Honestly, the the two best markets I think you can go after right now if you've got a bit of a speculative bone in you guys go for Lithium any company that has a huge value of producing or not that in nuclear You know, you can buy simple safer bets like southern company or duke energy or some of these companies that give you exposure These nuclear plants or you can go with camco. Yeah, but Those two bets will be the easiest bets to print money over the next 10 years I mean the lithium commodity price man is still holding ridiculous highs It's the only commodity that's just direct to everything this year and it's gonna you don't buy it as a commodity Is there a company that that you know lots like there's looking America The problem is is there's nobody making it right now and it's just these people that have bought up the land They're building into production because there's just so much damn demand I personally work with graphite and lithium companies and when I listen to them talk like their problem is getting the minds Functional because they're like gm wants to talk to us all these big auto companies all these other companies that are just Trying to use battery technology talking to us Universities and I'm like when you hear the demand for this stuff It's no wonder the commodity price is just through the roof like they're gonna be worth more than gold that again And I still think you know, I don't think I think wind and solar is a part of the future But I think nuclear Largely dominates those industries because it has such it has a lower carbon footprint and solar does Why even build solar if we know nuclear is so sustainable and yeah, you got some Issues with some storage, but that stuff is like we're talking about incremental amounts I mean when you look at the scale of it, it seems like a lot, but I don't know I just think nuclear is just is it is it the play for nuclear to go like with duke or southern that actually have reactors or is it more the play to go with like You know the uranium type of angle with a camico What's your you don't know I mean if you had a speculative phone you wanted to research you had some risk on I mean go for it because it's just the most obvious bet I mean of the whole you know You have to lose if you if you just don't screw up one bet like you could easily 10x your value and just give it Five years for one of these lithium companies to get into production. We talked about bonds man I'd rather own duke and southern man I mean So that's the thing right like me and you like you were in different space like again If I went back five seven years ago, I'd be way different because I think if you have less money It's easier to be more speculative because you've such a long runway Your little bits. It's not a big deal if you lose five or 10 grand There's a merit to that But now I'm like, you know, I like having this big lump very protected And it's like a baby you're trying to coddle that you work too hard for so you don't want to You know necessarily take on like because me and you are probably making you know I I still own speculative stuff I own venture capital companies that haven't come public yet that I don't talk about somehow I managed to get my way into angel investments that I think could do potentially well I need to make more videos on them, but I don't want to piss people off and you know I try to be careful with it because I do like a Dero as well the company that you're working with that We're doing stuff. I mean there's companies that I'm owning that I'd like, you know, but again It's not my Footprint because I'm only buying like 500 a thousand bucks here or there of it Whereas that, you know, if a 10x is yeah, I made 10 15 grand It's not like where I was dumping, you know 10 20 grand in the tesla and like he's super like, you know Getting these crazy runs where it's going to make up like, you know 30% of my whole portfolio gains now It's like, you know 10 grand is barely a drop in the bucket. So for me, I'm like, it's fun. It's it's cute It's not like life changing here So, I mean, uh, but again for somebody that doesn't have any money You know five grand and a good speculative investment over three years that five or 10x is for them You know, that becomes a whole new world for them. That's like a year's worth of income, right? I think that's I think that's prudent for people who are just starting and I see these dividends like They're just cheerleaders for dividends and it's like I feel a lot of people who have that first thousand or 1500 are like, okay, I'm so scared of the market So I'm going to go dividend strategy my entire life and On the surface that might seem like you're doing the right thing right to protect yourself the downside risk, but I don't I think you're going to set yourself up for multi years of underperformance I think you are Missing the point of why you're investing, you know Investing when you're 18 19 20 years old as if you're like a 50 60 70 year old Yeah, like you got to be careful. You got to be careful with that man like the very strategy that you deploy Depending on how loyal you are. I think dividend growth investing has its place. I think it's wonderful having the capital that I have I would just take a wild shot and suggest that I've got six figures wrapped up in dividend paying Companies now, but I also have the same amount or more Six figures in passive investing, right two completely separate buckets. I don't pitch the two against each other I don't say well my passive is kicking ass and my dividends are lagging I don't I don't do that because I expect one set of performance over one And I expect a different set of rules over the other and I don't I don't care I don't pit them against each other, but if you're a beginning investor, I honestly think that When you're young there is a place to learn yourself up on the opportunities in the market because Unless you want to just go play the lottery Or you want to hit that Pie in the sky business that you're going to start. I mean I wish everybody the best man, but I'm I'm here to tell you It's harder than you think Okay, but you two No, no finish your thing. I don't I don't want to tell you No, I just I I want to make sure because I think that youtube is is troublesome for a lot of people who come on and they're like dang Okay, I can do this too and you can but it takes a lot Of work on the onset you can watch a 10 minute video and think that your life has completely changed But the sheer devotion of making that happen along that path is a lifelong devotion With no certain guarantee that you're absolutely going to make it In the capacity that you think you can make it guarantee if you don't do it You're not going to get anywhere right because that was that's what I always loved about Dave Ramsey and and these kind of grant card own guys We're like I can't guarantee you're going to be rich tomorrow But if I told you to give me 10 or 20 years What would you say probably not right and the other thing I mean, there's just so many good quotes that come out of these guys Because people just don't have that long-term vision or the diligence to stick with it because Dave Ramsey's like Look can't promise you're going to be a millionaire But if you shoot up and you end up with six figures, you're really going to be complaining It's like, you know and at 18 years old man It's like I don't think people understand the value of that either Especially if you're prudent with it like tesla like if you bought tesla at 18 You don't have to care what it does for the next 10 years because you'll only just be getting to my age And that will have 10 years of value compounding for you where the valuations can catch up Like you don't even have to care about valuations in the market if you're just buying solid companies, right? Like for you and me, you know if you're buying tesla at your age Like it damn near needs to be somewhere in 10 years because you don't want to be utilizing that stock when you're 70 And that's where the value starts to play out But when you're 18, I mean you could give tesla 10 years to catch up to its value You don't even have to care about it Like you could just put little buckets of money everywhere forget the values We're just we're dabbling in like stretching people a little bit And I think so many people want to adhere to the safe route But if you can just entertain doesn't mean you have to make the move But explore the entire landscape, you know Abroad in your perspective on this deal and and you'll probably be better off for it because You know people are going to lose money. Everyone's going to lose money, man I tell you what, I mean, I look back and I I was I was investing at 18 years old most of the stuff that I did from late teens early 20s Were mistakes Now was it a failure? Did I give up? No, I learned from every bit of it, right and the learnings that came out of it have rendered where I am now Yeah, give her to whatever however you want to place Judgment or or value on that and say, okay. Well, I should be 3x where I am Fair enough It is what it is. I'm very very open with where I am and and and what I've been able to grow What's that? That's toxic mind So that's a hard thing for people to get over is comparing themselves because I'm like I can only Help yesterday and where I'm going tomorrow. Oh man. I tell you what I tell you what I tell you what man the the only the only one that I compare myself to Is the person that I was last year? five years ago You know, I and I and I'm competing against the person that I want to be, you know, three, five, 10 years down the line But yeah, what works for other people is is going to be different So a lot of what we try to do is if we push out these common themes, it doesn't mean that it's applicable to everybody But they are in fact common themes, you know, you can say hey, this micro cap thing is not for me It's keeping me up at night. It's making me, you know, but But other strategies to earn wealth I mean a dividend is as close to a guarantee in the stock market as you could possibly get And there's probably a few other things that are even more of a guarantee Well, you can't go wrong with these index ones either like that I've learned to appreciate them so much because in markets like this what scares me the most man is just the Like because like Algonquin power, maybe a stock. You don't know Canadian dividend or risk credible company utility I didn't like how would I have known that company mismanaged their debt so bad that it took away like 30% of their earnings This quarter the stock dropped 50% they're likely going to cut their dividend It's just like, you know, I don't know like you can't know everything about a company So it's just like even though you think it's safe the best Best thing about the index right is it waits it by market cap So you can hold them all and if face before off then it just de-weights automatically Mathematically from its market cap No emotion involved and you always end up with the best stocks on top. So even in a recession You end up building a more robust portfolio just holding a vanguard index fund that does do Market weight cap, you know adjustments don't I'm not talking about mutual funds or managed funds purely just the system of Choosing stocks based off market cap performance. It's a brilliant system for passive investing that really saves you a lot of bullshit It's brilliant. It's brilliant. But when you talk index funds, right it is significantly less if if at all About the individual holdings And much more about the year over year performance. It's about that bottom line factor It's about that factor. You can go back and you can track it. Okay. Yeah, don't base your future blah, blah, blah On on historical returns, however When you see an sp y I just had it back and forth with matt on twitter today. It was kind of fun but You know the the root of that was really interesting in in looking at the one year performance The three year performance the five year the 10 year and the year over year With an average clip of 12.53 year over year. Yeah, you're gonna have to impair some years. Maybe this year the s&p You know finishes down 12 15 18 percent whatever it is but That is what you're that's what you're focused on because Yeah, the top end has rolled off microsoft the apples of the world have underperformed But it's those companies on the other end that have actually carried that average forward And helped solidify that one factor for you and that's what matters Uh, yeah, it's uh, and again, I don't think we're not trying to push investing here anyone because I don't think index funding I was only an index funder. It's invested literally since the beginning of this year So i'm not talking like and i'll be all investment strategy here for sure But like I said, it just became a place of resiliency when you can recognize the market Is going through a moment where if you really don't know the companies you're holding You're putting yourself into undue risk because the markets like this the you know The bags are going to get shook and if if like buffett says, you know the tide goes out You're not wearing shorts We're about to see who those people are and it and it can be that person You thought was facebook i've gone compare like these huge lists of incredible names amazon down 50 percent like You mean you just don't know right so sometimes the markets like this is better Just be cautious and kind of just wait it out and then start picking like you're doing like you look at these bottom markets And you're like well, let's see who's surviving now And this is the time real estate stocks all this stuff and you know just to Dig in and start doing the homework and find those opportunities of lifetime But on that note, I don't want to keep you all night because I've stayed way longer than I told Say I would now we're deep now, baby. Let's go, but uh, enjoy your night, man And always a pleasure stay awesome. Hey same to you brother. Take it easy, man We'll be well keep in touch How's passive income investor kick over there help him subscribe to the channel appreciate his time as usual Love to get his insights man two different perspectives and the banter that goes on between us There's probably a hell of a lot of value that can be picked up right smack in the middle of that banter The idea here is to share perspectives, you know Kyle mentioned not to you know push investment thesis um, I look to share what it is that I do and I certainly would carry a lot less water I think if I came onto youtube and I I shared what it is that I do and was not successful in it What does success mean in the stock market? It doesn't mean that my portfolio is immune to downturn Which I have incurred some downturn I've supplemented some of those with other aspects of my life and Some of the aspects of my life that have nothing to do with the stock market are actually doing doing incredible 2022 is Just a fantastic year for us. I mean we relocated up here to new york Heard some fantastic professional news that I've been working toward for almost two decades And I'm absolutely humbled at that You know, am I is it fair to believe that the stock market is never going to be conducive again? Or is it more my onus as a bullish thesis and and a bullish applicator in my program To understand that we will have better days. We will And that is my sheer conviction and and that conviction I want to share with people when they feel like they've gotten down or they've had too much of it or They feel like they need to throw in the towel and subject themselves to short term relief I'm here to tell you that short term relief will be had at the expense of long term Gains and financial security in the long term guys. We have to be independent with our application We have to build those programs that make sense to us. It is not difficult to do What is more difficult to do is is make people understand that what is right for me And is what is right for you Is not going to be right for the masses out there And and you and only you are those ones that can determine The correct path toward financial security for you guys We just look to empower one investor at a time And and highlight some of the tools that can get you there guys. I really appreciate you tuning into the message We'll kick off now. I will be back next Friday on the fast to 60 minutes on youtube guys. Be well. We'll catch you next week