 Hello, welcome to this week's CMC Markets Commodity Snapshot with myself Jasper Lawler. We're going to be looking at silver. Now there's been a massive breakdown in the US dollar and as a result a lot of commodities are breaking higher and silver has been one of the more pronounced ones of those and so we're going to look at some of their causation in terms of the silver breakout and whether it can sustain itself. So the biggest factor here that we're looking at in commodities markets is just the fact they're denominated in US dollars so in the latest FOMC meeting Chair Yellen and the rest of the Federal Reserve Board have basically scaled back their growth and inflation forecasts also scaled back what they think the interest rates will be in the US at certain periods in the future at the end of 2015, 16 and 17 all implying that interest rates are going to be lower for longer and may not get hiked for perhaps a couple of months later than previously thought so that's that all ended up being rather negative for the US dollar and it does actually just correspond with the US dollar index around that 100 round number level and we're seeing some selling off there and we're seeing commodities like silver and gold running off close to multi-year lows. Now it's worth just thinking about silver individually and some of the reasons you might be interested in silver it is historically an alternative to fiat currencies like the US dollar. Gold and silver used to be used as coins obviously and in absolute times of turmoil investors will look to look to silver coins. Now you may say well we're not really in turmoil right now we're in record highs to stock markets that shows real investor enthusiasm but you do have to keep in mind that global debt levels are increasing particularly with the likes of quantitative easing from the European Central Bank lots of money being created, debt securities being bought at massive levels even at negative yields and so all this increase in debt does risk bring in extra risk into the financial system at some point there's going to be demand for these safe haven assets like silver. Now you may notice that this commodity snapshot is actually a day later than it normally is and it does mean that we're a little bit behind on the party in silver but I'm going to show you this chart here and show you this downtrend line breakout and so you exactly what's happening and where we can move from here. Now you can see that silver ran into its base of early 2015 late 2016 around this 1550 level and it did kind of spike below on a couple of occasions but just wasn't quite able to make much headway on the downside and then we had this down sloping trend line which came in just below the sort of $16 per ounce level and so following this FOMC meeting we saw silver breakout it pushed up to $16 per ounce broke through and closed above this declining trend line and in the subsequent couple of days we've seen a major breakout with today being probably the most prominent example and we're almost up to 17 where we're currently just below 17 and you can see that's the prior peak that we're running into that was a third connected peak in the declining trend line so here is some potential resistance here so got to be a bit cautious going forward but the break of this downtrend line does suggest that we've moved out of this sharp decline that we were in and at least into a sort of sideways type mode and possibly into an uptrend and so I think possibly an area of interest will be when we move back down to $16 again that would be pivotal if we've moved back below again then we could just be in sideways markets or that could be the end of the correction but if we do hold around there then it's suggestive that we could be sliding around into it into an uptrend for silver that's it for this week CMC markets commodity snapshot we're looking at silver obviously and really the key determinant here is the US dollar we've got quite a big week next week in terms of releases from the US we've got CPI data GDP data and durable goods data all of which are pushing the dollar around and the dollar probably after this last FOMC meeting will be a bit more sensitive to any negative data so should these data's data releases miss you know that could exacerbate this this trend higher in silver