 The following is a presentation of TFNN the Tiger Technician Hour with your host Basil Chapman call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648. Good morning everyone just had a question from the Den and Jamalaya wants to know is this let me just see the exact question was there we go good day Mr. Chapman well Basil's fine but I'll handle that you must be European because it took me decades to actually get used to the fact that little kids were calling me Basil instead of Mr. Chapman but that's the America and that was very eventually I got used to it but it took a little while so it's got nothing to do with respect it's just the way things are but in this particular instance is that the dreaded H pattern you speak of in the monthly TLT so let's go to that immediately because it is quite important to this particular stage to see where the yields are going so the love that was made of 9185 the week of October the 28th 2022 in the TLT which is the ISHA's 20th Treasury Bond ETF actually they call it the 20-year bond but it has longer durations as well so 92-23 was the low three weeks ago so it held that that's the H pattern that I call the dreaded H oh I should do this and so we talking apples to apples here we go so patterns I look at three core patterns just in terms of directional move straight up straight down that's what I always look at there's just straight down then you can get an arch formation or a cup formation or a mix of 1 and 2 and 1 and 3 so in this particular instance it's red because if it goes to peak A and then a B and then fails takes out the left side low in fairly quick duration there's a good chance that it's going to get quite a bit lower so you can see there was a dreaded H right there peak B minus failure there was another one there peak B minus failure and then went to peak ABC going to a C says you've used up a lot of the negative energy but you've also used up quite a bit of the the positive energy therefore there's a chance that you will stall and not just smash down below the left side low in this case 92-23 and that's this is what we're going to see so let me just draw this in for patterns repeated patterns there's the H pattern yet again right from that load there and it's arching over right there and you can see the MACD is still good turning down in this particular instance the MACD was good for a little bit not that wide and then across negative this casting didn't even make it over 80 percent this one did now it's at 75 percent so it's slightly different on a purely technical level in the large H2M pattern in other words sometimes what you see is this whoops this particular H holds the left side well it just nicks it but then it comes back quickly and then it makes another H it looks like a lower case H goes to a lower case and we can even have that repeated a few times meantime back at the ranch what we're all looking at here is that you've got an H which goes to like an M and then another arch formation fails in a larger context it's just a very big arch formation H formation and here it is still coming down because the MACD still MACD is still very weak because the histogram very weak the 9-period moving very weak under the 14-period moving F stochastic at 17 percent very weak this is a weekly chart WEEK the WEEAK technical aspect and look the 9-period and so the unbalanced volume is making this little W pattern and not showing any strength but it right at the area where there should be there was over here when it hit the low and bounce and there was a bounce in the price so it's very important say if I look at the TLT let's go to the TNX I should conclude this this here has not gone to a lower low and if it goes under the low that was made of 19185 back in October of last year that becomes a leg each of the downside then we have to do the whole analysis again look at the way the real monthly chart is deflecting lower here it's not so negative but it is definitely deflecting lower but look at this the TNX which is the 10-year yield and I consider this to be pretty important in the sense that this is where your auto loans and all the other kind of loans besides home at the besides mortgages all the other loans already based on the 10-year look at this this went to 43.62 the last one was 43.33 that's 4.333 percent three weeks ago you went to 4.362 percent but wait a minute that means it is just Nick you know I talk about this pattern I forgot to mention to when I was looking at in a moment ago I'll do it right now that you got the H the red red at H but then you got the very positive green reverse Y and this is what we've done we've gone above it so that means you continue the notation in this case D goes to E this is now a leg E after waiting the entire month to see that it doesn't break above 43.62 but at this particular point the magnet is deflected up the stochastic has gone back to almost 80 percent to 78.92 and it will and the 9-prim moving average is way over the 14 that makes it really important to discuss this in the sense that yields are rising and they're rising to the extent that the market if you base it on the toll brothers if you base it on the home builders how did it go to that new high yeah leg me I should have proceeded that could be yep that is yep that's an E slash B that shouldn't have been a B should have been alternate count because it didn't take out the left side low so look at this and now it's giving back and I was going to start a short start short positions or at least even option puts it's still early in the game to say I don't know how the home builders all of them had really good rallies how they bounce us strongly into this new new high ground in this case tall brothers look at the HGX index ups don't put it there put it here look at the HGX that is the Philadelphia housing sector index I mean this is why that was quite a move to the upside leg B and now it's turning around is this going to turn into a dreaded 8 I think so I think yes so there is there is pressure so I just need to do this because it is so important in my work in the Dow I have a technique that I've used for decades I call it yeah the dark news cloud cover and what does it mean it means that the market is always fighting two different scenarios one is a very negative one where some days it just doesn't even care about that and other days it does and one is a very positive scenario that says you could get momentary dark news cloud covers but the market and that's exactly what happened over here but the market wanted to ignore it so what I said back on the 26th of July is this is going to turn into at least a shorter term dark news cloud cover I wasn't a hundred percent sure where it is why because until you get the E that there shouldn't be a mini and the Dow E mini opening way lower I'm doing about 48 to 52 points lower and they asked the Dow down 219 to 350 and then market tries to ready and then it closes at the low of the day the next day repeats the same theory and then closes at the low of the day with a fall of fire most of the time the walk of a bike about cusping we're on the edge and I'll talk about that when we get back of this horizontal I'll be back if you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market then rocket equities and options report is a newsletter you should try Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals sign up for rocket equities and options report today with a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk for all the details and to start your subscription today visit the front page of TFNN dot com TFNN educating investors you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks 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toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 so let's just wrap up this whole thing with the TLT I wrap it up for this moment because every day it's going to be changing if there is a monthly not a not a daily or a weekly but a monthly that means the entire month of September there is a close under 91.85 is the low but I have to give it a little room let's say under 91 intro month if there's a there's a weekly close you can bounce and that's good but if at the end of the month the the ISHA's 20 a Treasury bond ETF closes underneath that left side low of 91.85 and I as I said I if it's going to do that it needs to be under 91.81 it has two months in which to close above it but what it does say is that you've now limited the upside unless it's just an immediate fantastic buy signal in the daily that goes to a buy mode very quickly and that helps the weekly start a brand you move to the upside that's the only condition but if it's just as it is right now then all I can say is that years are going to become a factor and if you're some of you recall that way back when I started your TF and then I'd already been calling for years about the Japanization of our bond yields and that at some point we will see yields go down to 0% just as it happened in Japan and then there will then be at some point a turn around a struggle to turn around to the upside but once it starts happening and about a year ago I said I remember being interviewed by Tom and I said you know who's the first time I'm going to say that I think there's a title change and a starting in the daily and I know that it's going to the weekly chart to say yields are going higher they haven't broken out if you look oh I don't want to do that I'll try to do it I'll have to get rid of it very quickly if you look at this particular chart right here I'm going to go to this particular chart there and you're looking at oh I'm putting in too many charts here it could be a problem all right let's just see what happens down 74 S&P's down 14 coming back a little bit from earlier on come on there it is so this is the 30 this is the white is the 30 year TYX brown is the TNX and cyan is the five year FVX look at this cup and handle it failed the first time it went back into the cup that's what we're talking about now it's got a much larger one so in the context of yields let me give you this here you remember I drew in this horizontal green line to say you know we've been here before in fact if I scroll thank you yeah we've been here many times to back in June of 2007 the yields were up in the very high range in the what is a 5.2 5.3 area this is the 30 year so we're still way under it so all I'm saying is that the effect and the effect of yields going higher is going to be determined by just how we see the and I as I read it over the weekend where there was Wall Street Journal or the New York Times or whatever whatever medium I was looking at or even when I listened to Bloomberg very early this morning was a last night last night the home builders look yes the Philadelphia housing index had a good candle this last weekend and a per candle this week so far the week is not even an hour into the week but it's not a good sign and if the health Philadelphia housing index starts to pull back and from what I'm reading there is a slowing of the increase in the in the selling prices of houses but it depends on where you are for instance here in the Boston area I assumed to someone the other day who's in real estate and he said you know there is a little softening in prices but because there are so few houses and certainly so few good houses on the market they're getting very good prices and I can't tell you he said that there's really a big break to the downside because they're getting not the asking price but really close so it depends where you are so I'm making it as clear as possible if the Philadelphia index trading at 541 in the next anytime in September any day in September if it closes under 500 it's telling me that yields are impact and that's all I'm saying then it's starting to impact the the general market if you look at with the ice shares global simmering forestry because hugging the food the 200 period exponential moving average it's not breaking down it's actually been quite nice didn't I type in ABCD I did what happened oh it might have lost it on the week that I've typed it and it must have lost it but it's ABCD this is just pulling back a little bit so this is not a market that's just just tanking it's a market that is very much in play but with a lot this time I would have to say I love to look at moving parts but all I can say is that the moving parts now are even in a sector you can get huge moving parts so that's why that's why I'm trying to look at we I tighten up the stuff we had we had a silver stock we bought it on a sharp dip thinking that okay that's good because silver the girls SI had a fabulous move up but it did make almost a one-to-one to a peak D that's where I get a little cautious so we got into this but I I tighten up the stuff we got stopped out of this particular stock that we have I'm not prepared to play games and I'll tell you why look here's gold gold turn around at where the 200 p.m. moving average for days I've been saying how does it handle the 200 p.m. moving average so far very poorly all right and that's in the dating look at the weekly it can't even turn pink it can't even turn green the pink 9 p.m. moving average is still down look at the dollar even the dollar gives back some of the gains today and it's holding pretty well 51 takes it 104.74 this is a breakout in the day not the weekly the weekly still has to close decisively above this high for me to say hey I think the dollar's gonna last a lot longer to the upside and that's at 105 point is that an 88 or 688 that was made the week of the 10th of March of this year a close above that says you know what we've gone below the horizontal rectangle low now we can go above it and then we can start to store but going above it really starts to put pressure in many areas maybe maybe the market as well but I don't have that right correlation exact I just I think it's a little fuzzy look at the EU are isn't this a tumble look at that right under the channel we've inside which target support line but the week is young it can close above it but look at that smash PK minus in a in a in a cup an arch formation during an H plunging below look away from the 200 p.m. moving average look at the US DJ PY this is the yen nice break out that means this is a G slash see I couldn't tell you how many G slash C's eventually go to a D and I just say eventually I should say very quickly go to a D so here we are in this in a leg D in the we in the weekly chart and the monthly chart is improving technically I don't want to play games with this stuff this is really important it's a it's a look at the SMH's and they are holding and that to me is a big clue the SMH's are down just a fraction down 3% at 105.99 this is holding quite well and this is where the where the semis go the market tends to go but it didn't take out the left side have 161.17 not yet I'll be back down 53 SMH's down 11 not bad I'll be right currencies commodities and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy keg stats Tiger 4x report Teddy keg stat breaks down the 4x markets every Monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures 4x stocks and options Teddy releases his weekly Tiger 4x report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs including the dollar index the euro dollar pound dollar dollar Swiss dollar yen as well as many more and he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30 year T bonds as they both influence 4x markets tremendously when you 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yeah there it is Cisco wow alt a recovery high multi year no a yearly high on Friday and acting down just 32 cents today the all-time I was about 64 plummets down to the 39s and now it's trading at 57 very nice action that's what I'm saying you've got to be very selective here some things are working some things are not some things that you think are working or not some things that you just you say how on earth I mean the question came in about Corvana so let me just finish this so what I would do is this I'm not going I don't think yet I'm going to do it for subscribers but what I was saying is to buy it here at 196 you can rest assured that if you do a a risk reward calculation you could very easily save yourself well it's a fantastic move but there's no reason why it doesn't test the weekly nine-period moving average of 180 and here it is at 196 well 16 points is is eight or nine percent risk so the way I was looking at it the from the action that from its higher highs if you draw it inside chapwave inside track repellent zone it's right in that zone right now so I would not put new money to work and I think that was the question to add to a position what I would do is I'd say it if it pulls back and just have patience it will pull back how far I don't know but I'm looking at the least the gap from last week you know gaps people say all gaps get full and I say no if you look at just don't think that way rather think of the most recent gap there's a chance that that one will get full then go to the next one then go to the next one I mean why talk about a gap this is island reversal way down to 159 what was the high right there island reversal on the 28th of July of 100 and oh my look at that that's 137 is that right why that's 160 there that can't be a hundred 157 uh-oh looks to me like I'm gonna have to start wearing my reading glasses a little bit more here we go um yeah so look at this um that gap why talk about that gap when you still got that gap to fill you've still got that gap to fill so do one at a time I'm just saying I would consider a October call preferably if it gets to 187 at any point in this month I would look at that now maybe I'd even go out to November but I would look at the call call position put on a pullback and I'd get it as close to in the money as possible I want to move almost point for point with it and that means I know my risk to the downside the premium will be wiped out and then you still got the actual call itself so I'm just saying as close as possible uh perhaps I can give you a number I'd say look at it 190 give me a look at it together I prefer at 187 because if there's 187.50 call that's what I would look at and I'd get it if it slips under in 186 as long as I've got a little bit of premium to myself that's what I would look at so I that that was the question and I'm just going to say that's the way I would look at it next question came in about Carvana C-R-O-C-V-N-A is that correct yes I got it for a change I could never get the symbol all the symbols I know them so well not even if I don't know the stocks but this one I'll always get wrong C I always want to put an R in it wouldn't Carvana have a C-R-V-N or something anyway so C-V-N-A is down a dollar at 19 at 49.64 yeah you see the way it rallies you see the way the MACD held the last one didn't hold very nicely this one has a flat stochastic in 90% so if you're looking at the upside if 48.26 if this doesn't crack 48.26 by when today's already Tuesday by Thursday at this time when I'm doing my show but in fact has even gone to today's higher 51.07 there's a chance you can sneak to a leg see I don't know if it's gonna go all the way back to the top but I have to consider the long side and then you can talk about the short side now the short side if you're looking out for Carvana and if you I mean if let's go to what is that one that guy A-N is that A-N yep there it is I remember the symbol A-N which is ordination and order cells look at this a dreaded H goes to a lowercase m which repeats to another m and then a third m so this is just stuck in a range now the whole thing about automobiles I'm not going to waste time today like maybe someone remind me maybe tomorrow I'll talk about it but I don't want to go into that as I see it in this particular point because I think there's a real mixed picture and I meant to stop by one of the dealers over the weekend never got a chance but to discuss the electric the EVs because more and more people are interested in them but a lot more people that I've been speaking to say we're a little bit worried about the energy factor what happens if the energy if the the core the utilities start to have a problem what do we do we don't go to work for three days because we couldn't charge it or whatever so there's a little hesitancy there so all I'm saying is that yeah if you're looking at the downside see I want you to put that in a CVNA I wanted to put that up so I wanted to put that in and I'll put it in right here if you're looking at the downside I wouldn't be surprised if you if it does drop I think it's going to be a sudden it's like a like a just pull the rug I mean that's just the way it's going to be a real rug pull that yeah this is Lucy yanking the rug and if that does 40 49 36 right now with it by Friday by Friday's closed this will be under 45 if it's going to really tank at this particular time so you need speed so I don't know which way you're going I'm just looking fang was a question fang is amazing this is diamond back energy look at the daily chart broke out and now I need to do this let me show you shall we methodology okay the most obvious lowest low is that low right then June so what I do I immediately put in an up error when I'm doing this in real time I start with a plus sign and then I'll upgrade it to an up error so there's your peak a there's your peak b there's your peak c move it to the right there's your d is that an instant restart well it is so this is an e slash a this is an f slash b f slash b and then it suddenly slides through to the side well if this is if this is an f or an a we'll see what happens but this is oh I'll do it when we get back from the place the cowl is down 86 s and he's down 30 dazzle chapter tiger technicians our be right back we'll see if this little pop is in again if you put them on there oh I hear the gold report as a precious metal gold is still king it continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the london otc market the us futures market and the shanghai gold exchange the gold report tom obrien publishes his weekly gold report every monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the xAU hui gdx the dollar bonds the south african rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations the gold report new subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to 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have nothing to risk don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game head over to tfnn.com right now to join the thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of tom obrien's award-winning newsletter market insights firsthand tfnn educating investors biotech is booming but for how long whether you think the biotech bull has room to run or has run its course trade labu or labd directions daily s and p biotech three times bull and bear etfs visit direction investments dot com slash biotech today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at 866-476-7523 the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principle the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four-side fund services LLC this program is brought to you by vista gold treated on the nyse american and tsx under the symbol vgz hi folks so uh with fang which is uh diamond back yes um this is really good action i think this is natural this is both the oil and gas and it's doing this cup formation that's the g slash because of this instant restart right here monthly doesn't matter daily weekly doesn't matter instant restore is an instant restart at a pd says that you got it's the only technique that i know of ever is this particular technique that gives you the uh concept is that if it's strong it can actually go for another four peaks higher that's that's really how exciting this particular technique is so in this particular instance that's going to be a g-c and g-c invariably goes to a d say yes i like it um this daily now i wanted to say this is more likely an f slash look this is i don't want to go into this right now i i'm just going to say i did this a little bit on friday i spoke about chaplain wave um unconventional flat base restart so this is that characteristic so here i have to put the chance that this is an f slash b then you get another b so this is now this is the starting point actually and therefore this can become an a and this is where this is where it is every technique that you have i don't care what it is at some point you're going to find a technique that is just absolutely fantastically easy and then it gives you a kind of headache to say oh now what and you have to do a little bit of thinking well thinking should be part of the game in this particular instance why because um we talked about price point this is a fixed price point in time as a conglomerate of both uh mechanical in this case electronic and human resources so anything can happen at any point but i'm looking at this and i'm saying i'm going to call this a d for now there might be an alternate count but that's what i'm doing if i'm correct at some point in the next six to eight weeks it's going to come back and test 145 but it's at 155 right now it looks really good this weekly chart that's a you have to get this is your starting point right here so this becomes an a as well that i believe is a double top i don't think it made even by one penny 135 11 135 take that back mister that's a b and that's a c and there's a d so so far diamond bank energy is acting really well i had a question about rig let's see if that's in the same category i think they kind of go together uh rig is is stalling a little bit but it's so close to that left side high peak d and a peak d in the weekly chart so yeah they're going together and that just tells me have a look at natural gas natural gas right now is trading how many months has it been that we've been saying oh natural gas i do see from the building of this rectangle formation that at any point if the weekly chart is able in natural gas i suppose i should go to the u and g because most people don't look at the futures so i'm going to go to u and g that's the trading vehicle in our state's natural gas fund yeah it's the same thing now at any point if there's one more push to the high that was made back in the week of the november august the 11th of 8.08 if we can just see u and g touch 8 8 10 inch a week that means obviously on a daily basis but an inch a week basis i'd be looking at something that i've discussed for ages that as i'm seeing the technicals build and i read this morning or i read it i think it was on bloomberg that europe is still very weak when it comes to natural gas i all i can say is that historically as you get into the winter this is if there's going to be a rally this is where it should start and we haven't seen anything yet so as i'm looking at it looking out if you're willing to have just a lot of patients here again i'd rather use an option i knew i know what i'm going to lose i know what the potential is i'd rather be looking at u and g as a an option and i'd have to go into october i couldn't go any sooner than that in fact yeah i'd go on october and definitely at 666 right now down 39 cents i'd want to be in this particular instance i'd rather say i'm going to go a little bit out the money and sacrifice something because i know exactly what i can lose you lose that premium so i'd rather go a little out i don't want to give back in the money and the end of the premium because it's it's done it's done horribly lower lows and lower highs just over and over again so but i the month the weekly chart is saying there is some improvement the monthly chart is improvement what are you what are you looking at so that's the way i'm looking at this i'm saying a little later on a couple of weeks could be sooner but i think it will start to move and if it's able to buy friday this week if it even has one sudden spike to 740 that'll be the start to say aha now it's shaking yeah it's it's it's like a little dog that jumped out of the water and it's splashing everybody standing still and then it just walks off because it's got its direction where it wants to go and that's where we're looking at this all right that's enough with that so next question came in as uh where was it yeah let me just if i can actually read this basil gdx speaking of gaps the evidence is showing gdx building cause this past year to close the gap from 11 422 thoughts gdx so we we were in gdx we got out of gdx and i might be completely wrong with that silver stock that we got in we got out i don't like what i'm seeing here just look i said gdx was not participating judge a gold itself look look at this gold chart it went above the 200 period moving average now it's down 16 but look at the gdx it didn't even get to the 200 period moving average and that made me nervous yet silver if you go to the slv silver did act very nicely but it did make a peak d the chapter we peak d especially peak d under the previous higher says you gotta be a little careful so when we went into our silver stock i made that i i make i've made the stock real tight and we're out i don't care three percent or whatever it is we we can make that up really quickly but i'm not going to be hanging around on anything that says i failed to prove myself and the day is young so even two hours into the session an hour and a half into the session maybe things change later on but that's the way i'm looking at it and i still see little spurts of buying coming in and spurts of selling so the gdx the question was was that november november of 2022 so let's just go to that i'll go to the dating chart november oh that's what i was going to do today i'll do that all week someone remind me i want to show the expanded charts because this is where you get a good sense so you're going to 22 november oh september going all the way back to november oh right there so you're talking about from the low that was made right here in october oh no it was the low that was made in september so this goes i used to have this note here i lost it peak a peak a b c is that really empty uh okay wait and let me review the question during the break and then a question came in about az o now what once had a fantastic short sell az o just before he needs came out made a hundred points or something and we've kind of stepped the way all this time i'll be back with both of you soon as we turn down 47 67 i'll be right you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter 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continuous contract i didn't put the the current contract so um let's see uh let's go jeff says no jeff says azio we'll do a little more on the azio right now i'm just going to go to the george says hi buzzer i did short platinum um yeah so the platinum got repelled at the 200 period moving average it just keeps getting repelled every time it goes there look it can't hold it so this is really important if you want to follow through to the downside first of all congratulations that was that was an inverted chapamir roman candle i'll also do a little bit more on this tomorrow and now we weigh underneath it so at uh nine on the continuous contract 942 down 26 on at pl that's a continuous contract it's changed the pattern in the monthly it's changing the pattern in the weekly what i would do is i would have a stop under today's high which was at 960 and you're at 942 i wouldn't give anything back because these things move really quick it looks like it now wants to turn to the downside even though the technicals are not that bad at all so that's why i'm saying what if you have a choice take a little bit off if you're asking me i would take a tad off now i'd lower the stop and i'd just let it ride and i'd hold it overnight if you're able to keep a stop in that's functioning overnight i'd put that stop in because this is a fantastic it's one of the best gains it's it's had on the downside for a long time so down 65 down 10 i think this is a little bit of a shake out for the moment i don't see it as being a major major turn just to the downside i still see some residual strength need time back at rest the summarize are up 31 cents that's not a bad sign so hold tight this is a convoluted week we're looking at coming up and it's individual stocks