 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Only two more weeks of EPL action left for this year and a lot of things to the top of the table have been decided But still potentially some jockeying towards the bottom of the table and plenty of matches to discuss We're gonna talk about those for today for match week 37 by talking to Austin Cass And then I'll dive in to some MLB bets for today across Fandall sportsbook. Welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim saw this. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire joined here as mentioned by Austin Cass You can find him on Twitter at Austin Cass You can find his work including EPL betting guides over at number fire calm Austin only two weeks left the EPL season So it has the has the sadness set in for you yet that the season is almost done Yeah, it has I was just thinking the other day that because of COVID and how they rescheduled the World Cup There really hasn't been a break in soccer like there will be this summer for a while But there's the women's World Cup, so we'll have that but yeah, it's I'm sad that the season's ending Yeah, and it seems like it's ending with still some stuff left to be decided But of course your man city ticket looking pretty good. We discussed that I believe in your first appearance here How you thought they were undervalued that's gonna coast at this point, which is a good thing But still some interesting stuff like to be said we're gonna talk to Austin about Match week 37 get his read there and also break down some baseball later on first day reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast. We were here every weekday breaking down MLB EPL PGA USC NASCAR whatever it may be you can find it all right here every weekday and also Over on the Fandall YouTube page if you like what you hear leave us a thumbs up over on the Fandall YouTube page or Leave us a five star rating over on Apple podcast now Austin we talked about man city and They've basically wrapped up the top of the table, but there are still some things let's be decided here So let's take a look at the futures market first before we dive in to the matches this weekend Anything for you that stands out as being a value right now and either the right Religation or to avoid relegation markets the Fandall sportsbook or do you think those markets are pretty efficiently priced? I Think they're pretty efficiently priced as you have alluded to there You know most everything has kind of been decided doesn't mean there won't be another twist but at this point Southampton are already relegated for sure and then Lester and Leeds, it's really looking like they're gonna have a tough time staying up So I don't really see much there if there's anything in any futures market. It would be For Liverpool to possibly make the top four That was something that I could maybe talk myself into but yeah top four finish there They're plus 230, but Newcastle played bright and yesterday and Newcastle won that game if Newcastle had drawn or lost I kind of thought that maybe I could talk myself into Liverpool there, but Now it's looking like they'll have to pass Manchester United who You know plays Bournemouth Chelsea in full in the last three games And I'm not I'm not sure Liverpool is gonna be able to do it even if they went out. So Yeah, I'm just not seeing much in the futures market and again as we always say here on the show a No bet it's better than a losing bet So always better to acknowledge an efficient market and you know avoid making a bad bet there So it's something Austin views this if this market is being efficient in the consolation prize Austin is that we got a lot Of matches coming up this weekend Saturday through Monday. We got matches all three days Let's start things off with the more traditional markets for those matches. Anything's to note to you across those Yeah, so I've got something I like on each day. So for Saturday, I like in the Wolves Everton match I like wolves to go over one and a half goals and it's actually priced at a plus 164 It's plus 164 because wolves have been awful It's going goals. So I know that's not what you want to hear at the start of this But every time I've been one of the worst defensive teams. So something's got to give it's pretty much the worst attacking team against Maybe the worst defensive team Everton have allowed the most goals in the league most expected goals. Sorry according to FB refs expect a goal model Sean Dice who is there somewhat new manager for him has a reputation of a defensive guy, but it hasn't really panned out He hasn't been able to fix the problems And it's not just big teams that have given Everton problems, which is something that bodes well for Wolves Everton have allowed at least two goals to Nottingham Forest, Folham, West Ham, Lester, Villa and Southampton just in the second half of the season and On the road Everton have allowed the most XG in the league 37.5 and 17 matches and then their last nine away matches. They've conceded 20.7 XG so Yeah, it's mostly this is a bet against Everton's defense and not as much on Wolves attack, but Wolves are What do have a Pedro Neto back he's one of their better attacking players so that helps that to lift for them But yeah, I'm bullish on them Wolves do the matchup and the plus 164 is you know an enticing reward for this bet Now when you look at the Wolves offense What gives you faith they can kind of buck that trend? Is it entirely just the matchup here with Everton? Is it just focused on the Everton defense or have you seen signs of life? Maybe signs of do for positive aggression via X expected goals stuff like that What on the Wolves side of thing draws you in here? Yeah, I would say Probably 80 to 85 percent of it and that Wolves are at home Yeah But then yeah, they played earlier this year and Wolves scored twice and now and that was at Everton Neto coming back. He's a really good player He's someone who I thought maybe a couple years ago was gonna end up at a pretty big club And he's just struggled with injuries hasn't happened for him yet but him coming back is a big lift and Yeah, so it is mostly about Everton and Wolves being at home Okay, so Wolves over one-half goals plus 164 right now vandal sportsbook for the Wolves versus Everton matchup That is in the goals market over at vandal sportsbook. What else you see in the more traditional markets for this weekend, Austin? For Sunday the Southampton at Brighton match This is just a really interesting match for me. I think That Southampton might just get really slaughtered in this one. So they they're mathematically relegated So they've got two matches left and it's really they're a total wild card. So It's hard to know what type of team they're gonna put out there how strong of lineup Maybe they'll play some young guys eye on next year But even if they play their best lineup They're in a lot of trouble against Brighton So I want exposure to Brighton and I think the best way to do that is Brighton over two and a half goals Which is minus 106 Brighton's just simply put they're one of the best attacking teams in the league. We have seen them Kind of break the will of Some of the better teams in the league and they just did it to Arsenal last weekend and a 3-0 win at Arsenal Which effectively ended our smalls title hopes So if if Brighton are passing it around Southampton and Southampton already don't have anything to play for really And I don't know how much fight they're gonna have which No, it's kind of heading down a narrative path. I don't really like going down usually but Yeah, it's just a really lopsided game Brighton have their last four home matches 13.0 expected goals and that includes 6.5 Over two matches against Manchester United and Brentford two teams in the top half of the table So it's one of the best attacking sides at home against one of the worst teams in the league That has nothing to play for and just Sealed their relegation fate last weekend. So yeah, I'm back in Brighton the score at least three But oh, I wanted to mention. Sorry Since Brighton just played yesterday on Thursday before I place this bet. I want to see I want to see their starting lineup Just to make sure They don't rotate too much But as long as they put a strong lineup out there then I'm firing away So hold off on the Brighton bet until you see the lineup coming out on Saturday Which should be about or on Sunday I should say which would be and luckily it's a couple days extra between matches So it's not Directly after that Thursday match for Brighton over two and a half goals. It's now minus 111. Is that still okay with you? I think it was 106 earlier on Yeah, it is. Yeah, and it's that's really It's it's really Says a lot that it's even minus 111 because it's only only teams like man City and Liverpool in the league Who would have a number that big to score three goals or number that low? I'm sorry to score three goals. So yeah, odd makers are expecting this to be pretty ugly, too I think now I generally know how to like handle like late season NFL stuff when teams have been eliminated But like EPL is a different beast where you actually get relegated and stuff like that in your experience when a team like South Anthem is is in this spot this true true true lame duck spots Is it like full rollover at that situation? Like you said, maybe play some young guys because just a different beast for me than looking at NFL stuff. Yeah It's a great question and it varies. Mm-hmm. There's been times actually where teams have been relegated and actually played Okay, the lot like pretty well better than they have one like the pressure's off. They've got nothing to lose now But I mean Southampton have given up 25 goals in the last 10 games and that was when they were fighting for their lives So I just don't know that they're gonna have anything in the tank, right? They were playing full out then they're no longer playing full out So Brighton over 2 and a half goals minus 111 if annual sportsbook for Brighton versus Southampton Now you mentioned you've got a bet for all three days. We have not discussed Monday yet So looking at the Monday match, I believe there's just the one yeah new castle and Lester. What are you seeing in that one Austin? I like Alexander is that to score or I think we Have gone to Isaac a few times this year. He's a player. I really like and I always kind of like his odds Sorry, it's just a goal. It's any time goal. I'm sorry. Okay. Yeah minus 200 discourses, but it's just any time go odds for Isaac Yeah, minus 105 there there you go. I was getting nervous when I didn't see it on there Yeah, that's not even messy would be that so right Yeah, I think so let's turn an interesting case because they're still alive and a win would be massive for them But new castle are just much much better and new castle also have a lot to play for because they're looking to seal A spot in next year's Champions League which they can do by getting in the top four and a win basically locks that up for them So even though Lester have a lot to play for a new castle really have a lot to play for as well And I just new castle St. James Park their home stadiums become one of the toughest places to play in the league this year They've been fantastic at home. And I just think They're gonna create a lot of chances and he's actually have a really good chance to be on the end of one of those and put one in the Goal so it sounds like this is a convergence of a lot of things where it is a good team Facing a bad team where both teams are still going to try very hard so you can analyze it straight up And he's back as a guy. I believe we talked about him in his goals odds this year Typically been like 105 plus 105 or so so minus 105 is not that big of a difference in a very good What you would think would be a very good matchup. It sounds like it just kind of checks all the key boxes you want here Yeah, it does the only box. It doesn't check is that If Callum Wilson plays and isn't the starting lineup Wilson will take penalties over east which is the only bummer But that's baked into the price if If Wilson's not in the starting lineup the Isaac member is going to fall to like minus 115 probably by kickoff Okay, well then check out esac at minus 105 right now over at vandal sportsbook to score so to recap the three bets Austin likes across this weekend in the epl He likes wolves over one and a half goals my or plus 164 Brighten over two and a half goals minus 111 But see what the lineup looks like before you decide to lock that one in And now is that are esac on monday to score minus 105 for that new castle versus lester game Austin that's all we got here for today. Still we do have next week in the epl Where they have all teams playing at the exact same time. That's gonna be a fun one to discuss I'm looking forward to that but for now. I appreciate the time Thank you as always. Good luck to you with your bets and we'll talk to you here once again soon Sounds good. Thank you, Jim Alrighty, check out Austin on twitter at Austin casting again You can find his epl bedding guide over at number fire.com if you want to read it in written form as well We're digging into some mlb for today and let you know some money lines strike out props and more than I like here In just one second the first the second leg of horse racing's big three is here And fandal is the best place to bet the preakness stakes right now All customers get a no sweat preakness bet up to 20 dollars That means you'll get up to 20 dollars back if your win bet doesn't win Bet the preakness with america's number one sports book. Just visit racing dot fandal dot com Fair chance to get a no sweat preakness bet up to 20 dollars this saturday That's racing dot fandal dot com age and residency restrictions apply offer valid on first win wager refund issued in non-let's rob a racing site credit that expires on june 12 2023 refund issued in non-let's rob a Up just read that restrictions apply c terms at racing dot fandal dot com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler Let's talk now about some and it'll be for today full 15 games for tonight in major league baseball I've got some money lines and strike out props that I could not find a home run prop that I like But let's talk about those money lines. There are three separate teams or I guess now two two separate teams that I have As should be favorites, but are not currently favored over at fandal sports Well, that's what the two that are still uh Still qualify for that beginning with the st. Louis cardinals taking on the los angeles dodgers Cardinals in this game plus 110. We were on the cardinals last night as well And they made it a little bit sweaty towards the end But then put up like 16 runs in that thinning to win at that game I think they can go back to back and win once again here today My my number said the cardinals at 50.8 percent to win their implied odds here 47.6 percent And that's even with my numbers not being overly high on steven mats for the cardinals their starter or Not only skeptical 20 gonsolin either. I think I'm actually kind of high on gonsolin So when I have a situation like that where I know I might be either in line at the market or potentially even higher than the market on a starting pitcher and I'm still showing value on the opposing team That tells me I can feel pretty good about this bet the cardinals offense has started to click here not just in the eighth inning last night, but Beyond that the past couple weeks this offense has been resurgent They have a solid bullpen despite a late collapse almost collapsed last night and defense here is above average I do think the Dodgers baseline numbers against lefties are somewhat a bit short and you do see that here with the match against mats They're hitting for power against lefties. I think their long-term numbers against lefties will be better So it's possible my numbers are a hair or two low on the Dodgers here But with the gap between my numbers and the implied odds at a three percentage points That's big enough where we've got some wiggle room to be a bit too low on the Dodgers and still have this being of value So to me, I think this makes a lot of sense. I do like the cardinals here a plus one ten I think they can win a second consecutive game against the Dodgers for tonight Second money line where I'm showing value here is the angels against the twins the angels money line Plus one oh eight read debt mers against Joe Ryan I do like the angels here plus one oh eight in this game And I think it's a couple things that play here. The first part is Pumping the brakes a bit on Joe Ryan will also acknowledging that read debt mers is better than the results. He has gotten so far Debt mers is a guy. He's getting strikeouts right now He should keep on doing so against the twins twins have really struggled against lefties so far this year It is a small sample, but They've got a lot of lefties in that lineup in general too So I don't think that's totally totally fluke. So debt mers His era I think is worse than it should be right now Should see some progression there and add on a good match up there I think that that's why we can have faith in debt mers as for ryan I think that he is legit as far as being like a top tier pitcher But he's not perfect. He's not checking every single box because the bad at ball data against ryan Is a bit underwhelming I would say So there is room for ryan's era To come back to earth a bit while still being very good as a result of that My model puts the angels win odds at 51.8 percent their implied odds here 48.1 percent so decent little gap there putting me on the angels in the spot So the two still plus money money lines that I like if angel sportsbook, uh, the angels at plus 110 Angel plus 108 and the cardinals at plus 110 against the Dodgers The one I liked earlier on this morning, which has moved since then the downsides of recording at 10 o'clock in the morning as opposed to the typical nine o'clock the nationals were plus 102 this morning They are now minus 108 against the detroit tigers that puts their implied win odds at 51.9 percent I do still have them above that at 52.3 percent But the edge there is effectively gone So what I would do here is shop around and see if you can still get the nationals at I would say like minus 102 or better If you can get them at minus 102 their implied odds are 50.5 percent That to me would be enough to justify betting them If it's just minus one away if you can just get the fandal sportsbook number I'd be okay backing off this one But if you can still get the nationals at minus 102 or longer, I do think they make a lot of sense here uh, this offense Is pretty bad that they're better against lefties just because they put the ball in play a ton Jake ervin has been okay. This first three starts exceeding expectations The tiger's bullpen is better than the nationals for sure. I think that's the one thing that does favor the tigers pretty heavily, but I still think there is some potential value in the nationals here So shop around on that money line and see if you can get it at minus 102 or longer If it's minus 108, I'd back off because I think that is pretty efficient and very much in line with where my numbers have Now with that said that would not mean you have to dump this entire game entirely There are other ways to bet into this game and bet against The tigers for tonight for me that would be taking the under on map boy's strikeout prop for an a strikeouts minus 108 right now at fandal sportsbook. I think that is a A good number to grab as of right now Uh boyd It comes down to a couple of things the first thing is that he has not been a very high strikeout guy so far this year He has gone over this number in two of his past four starts So that could imply maybe i'm a bit, you know lower on him than I should be But his strikeout rate overall this year 19.9 percent He says to the nationals as I mentioned before their team puts the ball and play a bunch against lefties Their active roster has a 17.2 strikeout rate against lefties so far this year So although boyd has gotten more strikeouts recently one of those games against the the brewers who never saw You know a lefty they wouldn't whiff against And he's now facing a very low strikeout team on the road And I think there's potentially some value in the opposing team to win this game That allows me to save map boyd under four and a half strikeouts minus 108 is the better way if you want to Effectively bet against the tigers here. I think that between this and the money line They're both minus 108 right now. I prefer this one for sure So I would take map boyd under four and a half strikeouts minus 108 right now over at vandal sportsbook The second strikeout prop where i'm showing value for today is you say kikuchi at least as of this morning It is still right there. Okay, so kikuchi under five and a strikeouts minus 112 Right now at vandal sportsbook and we talked about this when we were discussing strikeout props yesterday But I prefer props where there are multiple paths to the bet hitting and I think there are two paths here With a kikuchi under five and a half the first one is he could just go under this like naturally because He's facing the orioles. They have a 20.7 strikeout right on the current active roster against lefties That's a below average number, which means Just in general a lower strikeout matchup Kikuchi for the full year his strikeout rate 22.9. I think he's sacrificing some strikeouts in order to try to suppress the balls and play against him And based on what happened last year, I think that's a good endeavor to go for but it's not going to help his strikeout profit 22.9 So that's one rough kikuchi just goes under five and a half pretty organically. He has had I think Six plus strikeouts four times in eight stars. He's gone over at half the time Probably why this number is here But that is a realistic path The second realistic path to me is that kikuchi is still rough bad at ball numbers Could come back to bite him and I mentioned before he may be trading in strikeouts try to improve his bad at ball data That has not worked yet because he's still letting up Believe a 48 percent hard hit rate with a 43 percent fly ball rate when you put that up against a in orioles offense that has a 126 wrc plus against lefties and puts the ball in the air a lot and hits her power That can get you in danger pretty quickly, especially at a park that has been pretty homer friendly Since the renovations they made this off season. So He could get yanked early if the orioles knock him around or he could go under this pretty organically That to me is two decently realistic paths to an under on kikuchi Once you account for those paths my model is kikuchi projected for 4.9 strikeouts You need to get six to get the over here So I feel pretty good in taking the under on kikuchi under five and a strikeouts minus 112 at vandal sports So the two strikeout props kikuchi under a five and a half minus 112 matthew boyd under four and a strikeouts minus 108 The two money lines I still like are the cardinals plus 110 angels plus 108 and then if you can get the nationals at minus 102 or Longer, I think they would make sense there as well That is all that we have here for today And this week on a covering the spread fun week with talking with all of you as always next week Is a big one because we've got the indian apple at 500 We'll be talking about that coca-cola 600 monaco assuming that there's no rain in monaco. Unfortunately the Formula one race this weekend getting rained out via some awful downpours in italy. So Hopefully everything's okay there. Hopefully we can get some racing in next week all that coming up here on the show next week in addition to The typical stuff with pga mlb. Etc etc Big thank you once again to austin cast make sure you check him out on twitter at austin cast and find his work over at Numberfire.com thank you to austin as always if you got any questions for me I'm on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s do not forget to subscribe To the covering the spread podcast eat wherever you get your podcasts and also check us out over on the fandal youtube page If you like what you hear give us a thumbs up on youtube or give us a five star rating over on apple podcasts Want to thank you all for tuning in for today and this week. Good luck to you with your bets today and enjoy The preakness enjoy pga championship tonight's mlb slates epl Whatever it may be. Good luck to you. We'll talk to you once again on monday This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network