 Welcome back to the Breakfast and Plus TV Africa. It's time for our second hot topic. Echo was the first chiefs in a meeting held in Accra, Ghana, have revealed that the bloc has begun the activation of its standby forts in Niger Republic to restore democratic order in that country. Well, we have been joined by Mr. Augustine Eger, who is a security expert. Augustine, good morning to you, and it's so good to have you join us on this matter. Good morning, my pleasure. All right, so the defense chiefs are saying that the all elements that could go into any military intervention had been worked out and were being refined, including timing, resources needed, and how, where and when to deploy such force. What's your take on this as a security expert? AU is against Echo as Moves, by the way. What's your take on what's unfolding right now with regards to the situation in Niger? However, I think it's the right step to take because the situation over, situation in Niger is not what we expect to have. We expect to have a democratic government and now there's a forceful takeover by the military in the jail. And as much as I'm sure that they are also exploiting other diplomatic means, it is not out of place to have a standby military force in case something goes out of place. And so for my take, it is fine. While they are doing this, it is also good to continue to exploit diplomatic channels so that we can resolve all of this without war. Because if we have situation of a crisis that results in a war, this region is still going to suffer. The Sahel region has already been traumatized for some time with all this insolvency, terrorism and all of this. And so if we have this crisis again in the jail, it's still going to escalate. We're going to have a lot of problems even in Nigeria. And so it is good they try other channels that will not result to conflict. Give us a better understanding what it means to activate their standby force. It is, they are waiting for the last order. It means the last order that all of the Equals military heads, they are fully prepared. But they are waiting for the last order because they have a negotiation going on. And if all those negotiations will fail, of course they will exploit the last order. Once the last order is passed, of course they will take a military force. And what's your take on how the dialogue has been going on so far? At the dialogue, I think the first people that the president of Nigeria sent across led a former military administrator, Abdul Salam, and also the Sultan of Sokoto, they were turned down. And some of the people from the international community have been turned down. But it was good news that our own former emir of Kano, Sanusi, was admitted and he was given a listening ear and some of the Islamic bodies, they went there for negotiation and of course he was able to open up some things to them. But what we hear on papers is different from what they were actually to because we don't know, we just hear from the news that this is what and what and what he said. But from what I can see or what I can perceive from the comments from the president of Burkina Faso, I see a people who are tired of speaking French language. You understand what I mean? There are policies of assimilation that I think is not going well with them. They see it as a form of exploitation to them. Of course, these regions have not been as developed as of course the Anglophone regions. So they are not comfortable with their colonial masters. I think they want to break up from that marriage and have something new. And I also see that there is a force behind it because the strength they have and the confidence is not just coming within them because they don't have the resource. Or there's a higher power somewhere in the east for the Western region that is enforcing them, standing behind them and telling them, go ahead, we are at your back. Of course it's evidence that in Mali, they had this WACNA military contractors helping out. And the WACNA military contractors are from Russia. So I think these regions, they are tired of speaking French and maybe they want to learn the Russian language. That is what I can see. So they forcefully want to break up from this marriage and it cannot be done peacefully. It has to be through a military force. And then they can restructure their government and have something new, just like what we have seen in Mali. So with what you just said, shouldn't eco us then allow them to sort themselves out? You have just said something very instructive here that they may not be able to break away without using the military force to do that. Isn't that the same thing playing out in Niger? Shouldn't eco us then support them to transit, having, knowing what the agenda really is? Yeah. I think from the part of eco us, they will do what they have to do because eco us is not just, it's part of a larger community. If they permit those kind of, this kind of aggression, definitely there will be a total collapse of democracy in the Sahel region. So what they are doing is right. Yes, even if they have to go with their own way or their own channel to express themselves in the form that the field is comfortable for them to have a new government, then eco us have to still say that this is not the right way, we need democracy. So it's left for the government of the day or whether the military in Okinawa, Faso or Niger to think carefully and see that, okay, they have to quickly return the government from what they have to a democratic government. I think that is what eco us stands for. Whether the Niger military junta is there, they have to quickly do what they can do as quickly as possible and return the government to a democratic government. That is what we want to see. That's what eco us want to see. And I believe that is what the West want to see. Well, Nigerians are concerned that at the end of the day, Nigeria will spend more in terms of finance. Nigerians, Nigeria will also send more of her people, military people for this if war does break out. So Nigerians are counting the costs and saying we're not ready for this kind of expensive situation. Yes, if you ask me, I am of that kind of opinion. I am in the same opinion with Nigerians because it's not about the resource that we are going to expand on this war. We also look at the insecurity that will do, the collateral damage that will come to Nigeria. Nigeria will still suffer a lot of issues because there will be humanitarian crisis in Nigeria. And evidently we're still going to experience that because if that will happen, if you go to the northern part, Kano, Sokoto and all of those, they have a lot of Nigerians. Even if you come to the western part, you see the kind of many jobs they do. But it's even more in Kano. It is more in Medugri. It is more in Sokoto, even without the crisis. You can see that Nigeria is rated as the poorest country in the world. So if they have this crisis, we are going to have a lot of influence. And we are not really going to determine who they are because it's a war situation. So we will see that some kind of misguided elements, of course, some kind of terror-minded people will still invade Nigeria. So that is an opportunity for them to still invade Nigeria and still create more insecurity for us. Which is why it is very, very advisable for Nigeria to think carefully because look at the situation in Ukraine and in Russia. Russia thought it's just going to go in there within the month and they are done. But see, over a year now, there's still a problem with it. So the issue of war is not always something that ends quickly. So they should find other channels and it's not like I say, it's not a place for the military to be on standby. And then to say, this is what we want. But at the same time, I think they should be very careful in invading Nigeria because it's just a small country. And we have the ECOWAS head as the Nigerian president. They know why they made him the ECOWAS head. They know that the resource will come from here. Of course, these riches and the strongest nation within the West African region. But we should be very careful how we handle this. Well, African Union is not in support of ECOWAS on this. Tell us what could be the import of this, this agreement, this lack of support that ECOWAS is not getting from AU? Of course, if ECOWAS, AU have struggled with a lot of things. Like the issue in Mali, we really suffered. They are the body handlings of a scene or their face in Africa. There are some politics behind politics. There are some politics behind politics. These people also have an organization where they interact with the intelligence community globally. And I am also privy by my own research to know certain countries that are how to break Africa completely. They've tried every means to like lure Africa to join the organizations. And the Africans, of course, knowing where we are coming from, what we have suffered from, we don't want those kind of war coming to our own path. And they are looking for every means to ensure that they drag us into it. AU is very knowledgeable on this. They understand the international politics. So they are not seeing it from the regional or the local politics that's affecting us. AU is looking at it from the international politics that what would be the effect and what would be the gain and the loss for the entire Africa. So that's what they are seeing. And this war is coming in a region that the GDP, that will affect the GDP of Nigeria. If it starts, Nigeria is not going to be the same. And of course, if Nigeria goes down, many nations are remaining in Africa to stand up for Africa. So they are trying to prevent it based on the game plan behind game plans. So I think that AU is seeing it from that side. And why is Ekoas not seeing it from that side? We can see, and we've heard, how US and France are putting pressure on Ekoas to step in and do what they should, they think they should do in this situation in Niger. You're saying AU is seeing it, seeing the brother picture more than Ekoas is seeing it. Why is Ekoas not seeing the brother picture, the big picture as AU is? AU is saying, Ekoas. Ekoas is I think, I don't know what to, which word to use for Ekoas. I think they are highly, some word I can use here, they are highly the words. You want to say politicized? I think they are highly influenced. Okay, let me use the word, they are highly influenced by the Western nation. These very two nations you have mentioned. Because when there is a transition to a new government, you see that these Western nations are always very concerned. The two nations that are after are insisting that we should use the military force. Of course, like you say, is US and France. And of course, these are nations that are also, you see Russia is always against them or they are still against each other from their own, from the bigger side. They are protecting their own selfish interest. They are protecting their own selfish interest. Because if they don't, or they are not, I think they should, they should advise, they should utilize the diplomatic channels to sort out that problem. Why are they insisting on the military force? Military force can never yield anything good for us. It will be, we are the one to suffer. We will suffer in Nigeria and the Sahel region will suffer. So I expect them to use another means to ensure that, okay, what's the echo as nations? You try other means to resolve this matter. Of course, if they are, if they have been exploiting ways of peace, I'm sure that even the military junta will listen. But because it's about military force, military force, they are ready to die. The Niger people, they are not. They have nothing to lose. But we have a lot to lose. So it's just the influence that they have. They have influence on these West African leaders, especially the way they come into power. Some of them come into power based on their influence. And of course, they are the masters. And of course, they will dictate the pace for them. That's what we are seeing. But AU has a bigger picture, they are not seeing it that way. Some of the nations in AU, especially a nation like Ethiopia was not colonized. So they still have an independent mind. We don't have an independent mind here. It's either the Anglophone is influencing us or the Franco Foundation is influencing us. I think that's from that point is where we have to be very careful that the time of colonialism is over. We need to start rebuilding our own region, rebuilding our nations, the way we understand it. We have our own practices. It's not out of place for us to get some ideas like China is doing, gather some idea from the international world, understand how they do things, and then also put our own kind of thinking into our governance so that we can really run our government the way it is. But for now we have a lot of confusion because everything is like stereotype. It's a blueprint from another place. We have dumped our own way of managing ourselves. And we just focus on the international way. How can, again, on this, this agreement, this lack of support that ECOWAS is getting from AU? What are some of the things that AU may or can do against ECOWAS? Should ECOWAS decide to go all out militarily? It is still going to be at the high level of sanctions and all that because in this region, there are other regions as well. There are still going to be, of course, sanctions, maybe they will disconnect. They will disconnect the ECOWAS from the AU and allow them to handle their problem. Because if they are saying no, it's West Africa is in Africa as a bigger picture and they know that this war is going to affect the entire Africa. So if they believe that they have to cut off from AU or go against AU and go for this invasion and then they will allow Sahel region to face it, that is true sanctions. They will have nothing to do with us and then they will allow us to face all the problems. And of course they have a way of blocking certain things coming into us, from their own countries, flights and all of that, which is very difficult for us. It will be difficult for us because if there is crisis in some region, people will not travel freely, trade will be affected. So how are we going to manage that? So if trade is affected, that nation will definitely suffer, will suffer a lot of things. So that's all you can do from their own end. Of course there will be sanctions. Well, thank you so much Agostinega. Thank you for your time as we continue to watch this unfold. The meeting is ongoing still in Ghana, isn't it? The defence chips, the aqueous defence chips. I think they'll be rounding up today Friday. Can you tell us what's going to, what to expect from the meeting today as they're rounded up? What I expect is that the military, they're not done. The service teams, some of these things, they are military war technicians. They understand the gravity of war, starting and finishing a war. I'm not sure that all what they want is just to invade. They are also planning on certain other issues, what other things they can do in order to totally stay away from complete war. So I feel they will still be exploiting diplomatic channels. They will go back to their nations and they still tell them to exploit those mediums. War is the last resort, as they say. War is the last thing they will go for. I'm sure that the military people, they are wise enough, they know, they understand the pros and cons of war. And our president, President Chinubu, has said that military force is going to be the last option. And that's what he's saying now. That's what he's saying at this point, that military intervention will be the very last option. Yes, I think that is fine because since the military junta for Nijeli is already engaging, of course, it was very difficult when he had a closed door, but I see some steps he has taken. Definitely, from his own point of view, the man that was, they were a true man, they don't want him. I think that is what I'm saying. But I think they will definitely agree to a new government that is not the former president. Of course, the steps he has taken, they have been, the new prime minister have been elected. That shows that the doors are open for discussions. All right. Thank you so much, Augustine Ega, for your time and insight on this topic. You're welcome. Thank you. Well, that was Augustine Ega. Security experts joined us to take a look at the situation unfolding regarding Nijia Republic. And it's time for us to give you a quote of the day. Life isn't just to be endured, it's to be enjoyed. That's according to Gordon B. Hinckley. Life isn't just to be endured, it's to be enjoyed. So try and enjoy your life as much as you can. I am Maureen Menonwes. Thank you for being a part of our show today and indeed the whole of the week. We'll come again on Monday. Join us then. Bye-bye.