 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We already have a bit of an odd duck in the NFL for this week where there aren't a lot of like Super super high-profile games, but there are some games that have pretty high stakes in large part because There are teams in some desperation mode for this week. There are some really good teams of large spread So interesting weekly gets from a betting perspective. We're gonna break down how to handle that some of those those high leverage games And try to get you ready for week three in the NFL This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a digital media managing editor for Fandall research joined here as I am every Thursday by Dr. Ed Feng You can find his work at the power bank comm and check him out on Twitter at the power rank Ed Week three is an odd one. How you doing today? I'm doing pretty well. I mean, I feel like you know, this is like we too in college football where there weren't a lot of Markey games, but it was interesting nonetheless. I think we'll see the same thing this week and You know, it's the NFL I mean, it's it's funny to hear you it is definitely true that some teams are in desperation mode, but it's two weeks into the season Yeah, and Yeah, yeah, we had a long way to go but I Don't know maybe just maybe the fact that it's Vikings Chargers Specifically like the chaos of those two teams converging I'm not sure my brain can like actually grasp how dumb that game will be on Sunday Yeah, we'll see I'm not sure it's necessary. They're gonna be dumb. You got some Justin Jefferson in there You got like, you know Justin Herbert who can be brilliant So we'll see there's that old Kevin Clark tweet of saying that the the Seahawks had never played a normal game That could also apply to both the Vikings and the Chargers, so I'm excited to see how that one plays out I know it'll be entertaining regardless of what happens We'll talk about that game and more and get you ready for week three here in just one second The first day reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts You want some thoughts on tonight's Thursday night football game? Check out prime time Tom with Tom Vecchio Breaking down player props for the 49ers and to the Giants that is up in your covering the spread podcast feed right now Along with Fandall TV plus. 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Hope is here for the gambling helpline ma.org work call 800 327 50 50 for 247 support in Massachusetts call one eight seven seven eight open Y or text open Y in New York Now before I dig into the big games for this weekend I want to talk to you about big spreads because we've got a lot of them for this week and My model personally is having a hard time catching up to those because it's early in the year Which means there's increased uncertainty and so it's harder to get to a very confident number at that point So I want to ask you is your model pushing you to back some of the bigger dogs this week Or what are you doing with those larger spreads we see for week three? My model actually has a lot of these larger spreads, you know, I have San Francisco by 11 tonight And I think it's basically because of how I do at least one part of my preseason model When I do my bosom of crowds preseason model I'm taking subjective power rankings, but the way I map them onto ratings is by like my year-end numbers So like I know on average how good the best team in the NFL is compared to average How bad the worst team is in a number of points compared to average So I feel like that it tends to be an aggressive model like the spreads between the top and the bottom team Tend to be pretty big at least compared to what my market rankings say they tend to be a little bit more conservative they tend to You know have a smaller spread between teams I mean actually both of them are involved in my rankings right now, but Yeah, I mean because of the wisdom of crowds because of the way I constructed I am getting some pretty big spreads There's a pretty big spread that I actually don't believe in and we can talk about that in a little bit But you know I have Jacksonville by 9 so it it I am getting Some pretty big spreads and and pretty in line with the markets at least on those games Yeah, for me the big one is Arizona 12 and a half It's hard to like I know we had this discussion in the year the dolphins were tanking that was The Josh Rosen Fits magic year where they like got blasted like they lost relative to the spread by like 21 points The first couple of games they showed up as a value then and at that time it was like okay You need to show value ignore that for the Cardinals like 12 and a half at home is tough Even though I've got Dallas I think they're the top team for my power rankings right now, which I don't know I feel about I don't if I'd hang right hand rank them there But like they're the top teams hard to get to 12 and a half when one team is at home Yeah, absolutely. I mean I actually do have Dallas by about 12 I think partially that's because like, you know, the market win total Was assuming no Kyler. I guess actually I guess that would be the other way I think some of the early season adjustments I try not to make them that aggressive in the NFL, but inevitably they end up that way for whatever reason I am at 12 in that game, you know, it does seem to be capturing the difference there I'm actually pretty high and else. So if they're number one, I don't know exactly where they are my my top Most trusted numbers, but I think they're gonna be good I wouldn't be surprised if they were one of the best three teams in the NFL when all of a sudden done Yeah, they actually are first to me. I just checked. So they are first Still can't quite get to that number But I just kind of ignored it personally the fact that I'm showing value there because I don't trust that it's fully legitimate So hopefully it doesn't bite me But I think hearing that your numbers also are large Reassures me that staying away from these games despite seeing value is probably the proper way to handle things there Let's take a look at some of the bigger games in week number three and start things off with a very fun one because Both the chargers and the Vikings are in need of a victory here in week number three The Vikings are currently one and a half point favorites. That's bounced around the entire week Like 16,000 times money line has stayed more steady. Currently the Vikings there are minus 110 chargers minus 106 At vandal sportsbook. They're both going to so far ahead. So which team do you think should be more concerned about how things have gone thus far? Probably neither. They are collective 0 and 4 and 1 score games. So, you know, let's not Make too much of of whatever it is. I mean, I think the charger have lost by a grand total of what three or four points or something like that Minnesota, you know, ran into Tampa Bay week one lost the Philly week two so You know, when I look at this game, it's kind of interesting I I looked at the I Just catching up on what what's going on with the chargers past defense and like their coverage braids have been awful this year Um, I don't really expect that to continue. I think you're gonna get some regression to Where, you know, I mean, I think a pretty talented set of corners. Uh, jacy jackson. It's not the same as jr Uh, and then, you know, and they were decent in my numbers. Uh, last year There's certainly more terrible Like they have been so far this year. Um, and then with minnesota, you know, I think the question is a little bit different Because I just I don't think there's much talent on that defense, especially in the secondary. It's not a team I'm particularly high on You know, when you sent me the the rundown yesterday, you know, the chargers were a one point favorite now Minnesota is a one and a half point favorite Um, so my numbers actually have minnesota by two. I'm not necessarily sure I believe that I mean, if you're saying minnesota by two, you're essentially saying these teams are pretty even on a neutral field I think the chargers are the vastly more talented team So I'm I'm more more likely to uh, let's see preseason I would had the chargers by about a half point So I actually like this number where it was with the chargers being the favorite. Um, I'm Uh, I haven't bet it yet, but now now that like I'm I'm actually interested in chargers plus one and a half I think I think they're clearly the more talented team minus justin jefferson and uh, Yeah, that's I I like where my preseason number is more than than where my were where were um My current model is yeah, I've got this as the vikings by one point three points. Uh, so That is a bit less in home field. So it does say the chargers are a slightly better team But it's not a big gap and I agree with you where the talent on The vikings defense is much worse than on the chargers side of things Um, I'm assuming austin necler is out for what that's worth. I think because he's such a big piece in the passing game Um, he does matter there. It doesn't matter enough where I'm like You know showing the chargers being overvalued or anything like that, but um, I am largely on board with you where Even though the chargers have been bad so far. I don't know if that'll be a sign of things to come Also, I would say add and you can disagree with this But like I think that I was honestly a bit more encouraged by the chargers last week despite their loss because a they didn't have eckler B. I know the defense played poorly, but the offense Connick lived up to like the hype because there was all this talk that's obviously about kellen moore Unleashing jesson herbert and he actually did throw down field in week two, which is what I want so I know they lost that game But weirdly I feel better about them now than I did in that game And I feel like I'm actually like if I if I don't but if I were have to show in value on the chargers I think I would have felt pretty good about that personally Yeah, for sure. I mean, I think, you know, we'll we'll see exactly how kellen moore kind of evolves as the oc um And but I think seeing good things that that you liked is definitely positive and it just points more towards You know taking chargers plus one and a half All right, let's move to your neck of the woods for this second one ed because we've got the falcons taking on the lion This is now a three-point game. It has shifted down to a field goal The minus 300 trope is minus 115 total in this game is 46 and a half falcons two and oh so far Hasn't always been pretty the passing offense has been Limited in erratic, but what's your read on the falcons heading into week three ed? I I've really been kind of questioning the falcons all year They are a team that seems to ignore the fact that passing is king in the nfl You know, they're going with the second year quarterback and desmond ridder They drafted bjohn robinson although he actually is leading the team in targets So he you know, he is a player that can affect the passing game. So so let's be uh, let's be clear about that You know, uh, Atlanta was actually pretty good last year Despite having an awful pass defense. They were actually last when I looked at my adjusted success rate This year they look a lot better They are seventh when I look at passing success rate allowed But let's put that in context. They played bryce young in carolina week one last week. They got green bay with You know a guy starting is what third game in in jordan love and no erin jones no christian watson So let's not think that the alana falcons defense is going to be good I don't think it's very good. Actually. I think both these teams defenses are bad You know, I had a lot of hope for detroit the detroit lines defense this year haven't really Haven't really seen it. They've kind of gotten torn apart. Well, actually, I mean not really they were bad against seattle last week um And you know, I mean they bring in a manual mostly and the guy hasn't played a single snap yet because he's hurt now Uh, cj gardener johnson is is on the injury list I think both defenses are bad But um, I mean, I think detroit is better at throwing the football Jared golf has been good a little concern that i'm on rossame brown Is on the injured list. It's at a cramp. I've also heard stuff about a toe. So that's concerning, but it What's that turf toe a turf toe? Yeah, so that's a little bit concerning, but overall, I think the lines Uh are much better at throwing the ball. My model has this, uh, detroit by six I actually really like detroit minus three here. Um, I think they cover this and potentially cover this really easy and you Know like the way my model is set up it is often going to be against the atlanta falcons And I do feel like some weeks that's going to look really silly Uh, because you know, atlanta is going to be able to run the ball on some people But I don't feel like detroit is a kind of team that is just going to get gashed in the run game Um, you know and even this year they're kind of mid-pack when you look at pff grades in terms of, uh, rush defense So it it it doesn't seem like A situation that atlanta can take care of I actually really like detroit in this situation So I smiled because we're two for two in being in lockstep ed Because we were like half a point off of the vikings and I have 5.7 or 5.8 for the charger over the lines here In this game and it's for the exact same reasons you discussed, you know passing Uh gets higher weight in my model. I know last week the falcons came from behind against the the packers But do you expect them when they get a negative game script to be able to erase that gap often? I don't personally and that's why passing efficiency gets a large weight is because it's more applicable in like every script Amon Ross St. Brown did return to practice on uh thursday and He's a good enough player where if he's truly truly banged up He doesn't have to play or practice, but he did practice on thursday and late in that game Like he had left for a bit and then he came back in like the fourth quarter and he made a reception He looked great on it. So he can play through that injury looked really good I know there's no David Montgomery, but like jamir gives fully capable Filling in here and if that encourages the lions to throw the ball more even better. So I actually not only have the lions that I also like the over in this game at 46 and a half the Over is minus 105 right now. It was 45 and a half up to 46 and a half. So To me, I feel like there are a lot of signs pointing to offense in this game But also the lions being a bit undervalued the mooth surprise it got to three But honestly, I feel like that should just you know, no complaints personally Right, and you have to remember like the lions probably should have won last week against seattle They had to pick six. They had some of the turnovers. Uh, they were better. I definitely in terms of yards I think in terms of success rate as well. Um, so I mean, they should be too well Probably one-on-one is fair and I'm not necessarily just reversing which one they want. Yeah um, but uh, yeah, you know, I mean, I think uh, I Honestly, I don't really like either team, but I like to draw a lot more I'm definitely gonna go with my numbers on this one. I will go with mine as well So we're both on detroit here for this weekend Final game to discuss here is the saints at the packers We're right now the packers are one and a half point favorites total of this game Is 42 and a half that spread has tightened because it was two and a half. It's now one and a half so some movement towards the saints and Jordan love has put up decent surface level numbers so far But we know surface level numbers can be kind of fluky and they were in a very plus matchup So where are you at on this new look packers offense through two weeks? Yeah, I don't really know. I mean, it's hard when you have no Aaron Jones and Christian Watson last week, right? So they're still questionable for this game. I think that really matters, especially with uh, with the young quarterback um Yeah, let's talk about New Orleans. I think they got lucky as heck to be a Pretty bad Carolina team last week, right? I mean Bryce young had the fumble when they were uh in in their territory And you know, New Orleans offense wasn't doing anything until chris the law. They caught that miracle Uh pass up the sideline and I don't know if you take out whatever those 40 50 yards were Um, you know a lot of things kind of change in that game The same defense was great and that's kind of what we expect. Um, and so I don't know I kind of There's a part of me that expects their car to go back to the way he was two years ago And maybe that's just really not gonna happen. Um, so I don't know. I think a lot of questions there obviously a lot of questions about green bay, uh with You know, what you're in love with the quarterback position. Um, I don't I don't know what what to think About this game. Oh the other thing about green bay, you know Like they had the pretty good win against chicago week one But they were plus two in turnovers and they were actually uh six six percent worse and passing success rate than Then chicago, which is you know, not what you want to see when you're facing dust and fields I don't know what to think about green bay. I mean, I was kind of on the low side of expectations compared to everyone pre season Uh, I may double down on that. I also don't know what to think about new orleans I think the injuries really kind of matter and it's also confusing the picture I would have made this green bay, uh by about two in the pre season, which kind of seems where the market as is right now I'm kind of seeing that in a couple games that you know, the market's pretty close to the What I would have made it pre season particularly that my name a game that you have up right now I'm on a six and a half. That's not what my model has but uh, that that's what I would have made it This pre season, which I think is smart, right? Like I think it's actually smart to stick pretty close to what your pre season prior is Uh and not overreact You know right now I have adjusted. I have this game pretty close to a pick that that's actually probably the right answer Especially if jones and what doesn't don't play But I don't I have I have zero interest in that in this We're a three for three add point two two, uh, I have green bay here by point two two for this game So we are within a half point on all three games our models for this weekend I did take the under when it was 43 and a half. It's now down to 42 and a half. That's probably because of wind There's some I think 12 mile per hour winds in the forecast for that game So I got that at 43 and a half 42 and a half. I still have I think a tiny bit of value, but it's at I have it at 40.8 so Not as much there anymore In large part because I respect the saints defense still skeptical of this packer's offense The saints offense is weird kind of like yeah I'd be over for the saints panthers game and just the second they started to ground them pounds before jamal Williams got hurt I was like, oh boy, that's dead. So Yeah, they were pretty frustrating there honestly And I I think I agree with you where it's a tough game to read mark It's probably pretty accurate in this one. So at least it's where things stand right now I'm okay being a spectator for this one in the afternoon Any other bets you like across week number three at a fandal sports book Yeah, I mean, I actually haven't bet this but I've been thinking about it all week and that's cleveland Is it still minus three and a half? I believe so it was 20 minutes ago So this game is uh, particularly interesting to me. Um, you kind of have the nick chubb factor. He's he's out Uh, I talked to tanner music from dr. Bob sports this morning on my podcast and and he said that's worth about a half a point to him Probably on the low side what what people are gonna, you know, give that uh injury I also think uh, so my my model has this close to eight cleveland by eight and and I think that's too much I think You know, we didn't really see the true Cincinnati team week one and you know My model as as non-aggressive as as tries to be in the early weeks, you know made made about a two-point adjustment there So i'm not sure that's necessarily fair You know cleveland, uh lost to pittsburgh, but that was a pretty fluky game with some defensive touchdowns Uh, preseason, I would have made this cleveland by about five um, and when when you look at these so it should probably be about four and a half right now uh And when you look at this game, I I just think cleveland's a much better For football team. I think their defense is going to be really good I think their defense was like kind of strangely not as good as it should have been Given the talent that they have on that side of the ball last year, you know, they're bringing jim schwarz this year It looks good. It's probably not as good as it has been over two games But I still think that defense is going to be really good uh, you know, still lots of questions about shone watson on The offensive side. I I I still kind of eventually expect him to get back at least closer to where he was And not what we've seen through the first two weeks Uh, and i'm just not really a fan of this tennessee team at all So, uh, I'm leaning towards betton cleveland minus three and a half That price looks pretty good minus one or two there. I just think they're a better football team at home and um I think on the right side I agree I took the cleveland money line earlier on this week that it's currently minus 178 right now at fandall sportsbook I think I got it at 176 or somewhere around there So also seeing value in cleveland in this game I do have a pretty big downgrade in there for nick chubb because if you run the numbers on This brown's offense with and without nick chub or when he's like off the field versus on the field They're passing expected points actually do go down a pretty decent amount without nick chub So he does matter for the area of the field we care more about just passing He also obviously is like the best running back in football So that part does matter to an extent too, especially for a very run heavy brown's team But they're going to be forced to throw here and I think against tennessee if you're forced to throw You're probably going to be pretty effective because tennessee there is not great At least compared to what they are against the rush. It's kind of like the old todd bowls defense said where He was I think josh hermsman wrote about this back in the day where Todd bowls was too good at stopping the run because it forced opposing teams to throw on them Which made them more efficient as a result. I think we're kind of seeing now at tennessee right now And right I think that that should be a concern for them as far as I know that they won last week But that's a pretty big concern for them and they've covered both weeks too. So It hasn't bit them yet, but I feel like long term that could wind up being an issue For sure, right? I mean, I think sometimes you have like You know, it's probably better to lean towards what Minnesota did last week and take everything away deep and You know get gashed on the ground like, you know, I mean, I thought it was interesting that, you know, brine floor is Treated jail and hurts like Peyton Manning, right? Because that's what teams used to do Peyton Manning Just to be like, look run the ball, please um So yeah defenses should kind of Should uh should air that way instead of the Todd bowls away, right? right Yeah, I agree that the the browns are a bit undervalued in this game With them at minus three and a half minus one or two. You said even better yet What was hesitation for you? Were you thinking the market might move towards Tennessee as a result of the chub injury? Or what was the the pause for you? I just I haven't had time to completely think it through and and get on my phone and do it I like it. I mean, I've been looking at this all day and I haven't talked myself out of it. So let's just let's just pretend that I've read it already Uh, as someone who's been very busy this weekend has been behind on literally every task. I get that I've not been extended series yet. I'm way behind Ed. So Fucking fully fully relate to that, but I agree that liking Cleveland minus three and a half Which is currently minus one or two over at fan dual sports book That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread as a reminder If you want some Thursday night football thoughts check out prime time Tom with Tom Becchio right here in the covering the spread podcast feed and on fan dual tv plus ed uh, you were talking about Some discussions you've had throughout this week over on your podcast where people find that and all of your numbers Right. I'm over at the powerink.com. Uh, come check it out for five nougat saturday in my email newsletter It's my curated list of uh sports betting tips and analytics So check that out at the powerink.com Then my podcast is the football analytics show wherever you get your podcast I talk to Tanner Busek who is the head of analytics over at dr. Bob sports really interesting conversation I'd actually never had a chance To talk to him about what he does He was a little scant on the details, but he was also super generous with bets So that'll be up thursday night. Uh, and uh, check that out wherever you get your podcast So some halftime listening for thursday night football. Uh, get that at the football analytics show Find ed on twitter at the powerink. I am on twitter at gymsanas j i m s a n n e s You can also follow fan dual research at fan dual research We are back once again tomorrow wrapping up week three by talking player props with the jj. Zacharyse and rob freeman Will also drop by to talk about some strikeout props in baseball and i'll talk nascar in texas as well And i'll get those xinity series bets in for that. Thank you all for tuning in. Enjoy the football for tonight We'll talk to you once again tomorrow. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network