 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Today is kind of like a seconding opening day in major league baseball because we have got games Scattered throughout the entire day and I know that my plan is to watch these games while I work And I thought that some of you may want to do the exact same I won't tell your boss if you don't tell mine So what I wanted to do was to run through Some bets you can make across these games in case you want some action on these of course always betting responsibly But I think that it could be fun to get some action in on these games if you are so inclined So I'm gonna break down what my numbers are seeing across the day games for today across major league baseball Hopefully getting information in a fast fashion so you can fill out your bed slips go on and enjoy your day before a first pitch These games getting away under way at 12 35 p.m. Eastern that is our goal for today is to break down major league baseball This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire You're gonna break down today's slate across major league baseball letting you know my favorite money line strike out in homerun props You can bet over at Fandall sportsbook We'll dig in to all these games beginning with the money lines in just one second First a reminder that our master's preview podcast is up with Brandon Gadoula We broke down his favorite outright's his favorite non-outrights his read on Augusta some Stat digging he has done into Augusta over the past couple years as well. That is up over on the Fandall YouTube page and on the covering the spread podcast feed So go search for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast hit subscribe and if you like what you hear Leave us a five-star rating big. Thank you to those of you who have done so already in a coat Of course tomorrow western baseball again. I'll also talk some NASCAR on the show Plenty more to come across the rest of this week, of course NBA playouts just around the corner So make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread Are you looking to have a stake in the master's all weekend? Well Fandall has you covered with the PGA mega eagle DFS contest Which is now live test your knowledge of the PGA tour by putting together a six-person lineup While staying under the salary cap and using Fandall's live scoring feature follow along as you compete for a share of $750,000 with first place taking home a hundred and fifty thousand dollars all for just a fifteen Dollar entry fee there plenty of options to help you fill out your lineup as you compete for first place Thursday We'll be here before you know it so submit your lineups on Fandall today Eligibility restrictions apply go to Fandall.com or download the Fandall app for details if you want a DFS breakdown of the master's We did that as well That's also on the Fandall YouTube page and up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Let's begin the MLB discussion for today by talking about some money lines There are four money lines where my numbers are showing enough value today Where I'd be okay betting it and those are on the Astros Giants Braves and cringe Nationals will do the nationals last because I understand if you don't want that one on your bed slip I don't really either but you know hey value is value Let's start things off here at the Astros their money line against the Tigers for today is Minus 255 and the start of the year for the Astros has been pretty close to a nightmare They are two and four so far this year so getting 72% implied odds than to win this game seems pretty steep I've got the Astros at 74.6% so a bit above the implied mark here and It makes sense why they struggle their lineup is diminishing what it was They've lost some key pieces, but they got Christian Javier starting for today Javier He's a righty facing the Tigers the Tigers active roster has a 79 WRC plus versus righties since the start of last year the Tiger song in Rotterwood Riga's he is a lefty facing the Astros and yeah They have lost a lot of key pieces no wholesale to bear right now Michael Brantley is out So they're missing key guys, but they still have Seven players on the current active roster who have a WRC plus of 100 or higher Against lefties since the start of last year where they minimum of 100 plate appearances now WRC plus is not a number. I want to look at in such small samples It is frankly atrocious in that small sample But it tells me if we use it in this regard that they still have enough guys They've got volume of hitters who can hit well versus lefties So when I see their mark versus lefties, I still put stock in it I think there's still enough guys here who can do well versus a southpaw. So I Do think this number may be a bit reactive to the the record for the Astros so far this year I think they've underachieved. I think they are undervalued. So minus 255 to me is totally totally fine Both the Giants and the Braves are teens that I have favored to win for today But they are currently underdogs at Fandals sportsbook. The Braves are plus 106 The white the Giants are plus 114 against the White Sox. Let's start things off here With the Giants throwing out Logan Webb for today And if you watched Logan Webb on opening day against the Yankees, you can probably understand Why we are here. He was lights out in that game with a bunch of strikeouts and I Don't find that super surprising I bet Logan Webb to win Cy Young last year, which did not go well But he improved down the stretch seemed like he figured stuff out in August September To get him back to closer to what he was back in 2021, which was a legitimate Cy Young contender Not sure if he's quite there again, but a big strikeout game gets me intrigued He's facing the White Sox here a 99 WRC plus against right. He's in their current active roster Not a ton of power. So I think Webb can get the job done here all the opposing side You got the White Sox or bullpen their defense not huge boons for them But you could say the same thing about the defense for the Giants as well But I do think that plus 114 a good number to get the Giants that either 50.3 percent to win The implied odds of plus 114 are 46.7 percent as far as the Braves go They are starting in Bryce elder and I feel pretty good about elder You look at what he did last year in a very small sample. It was 10 appearances in the big leagues nine Starts he looked good. He had good results. The peripheral is not quite as tasty, but still decent And I think it makes sense because in triple a last year really solid numbers now It's a tough task here. He is facing the Cardinals They're a very good offense. They don't strike out a ton, but the bullpen behind elder is really good So should elder have issues I have faith in the Braves to you know, at least keep things tight Later on this game miles Nicholas is on the other side of this game. He's fine He's someone I respect in terms of his pitching, but not someone need to fear all too much So I have the Braves at 50.9 percent to win the plot odds 48.5 percent. So Both these teams decent little values slight favorites from me Whereas you're getting plus money on the money line So I will take that and take on both the no both of those the final one is the woofer here. That's the Nationals I again understand if you don't want it They are plus 220 at home for a reason reason is they stink and they're also throwing Patrick Corbin So the idea of putting money on Patrick Corbin is not fun at all I do not like that, but the implied win odds of the Nats are 31 percent. I've been at 36 percent So still pretty low, but just not quite as low as the market So I'm gonna take this personally. I have bet this but I don't blame you if you'd rather not I think the other way you could go here would be the total right now The total is eight runs minus 115 on the over I find that pretty intriguing because again, it is Patrick Corbin So that's definitely a boost for the total here shame the clan of hand. Obviously a very very good picture, but Not a ton of strikeouts recently Look looking back at last year. He's made some changes to his repertoire. I'm not sure if that's why the strikeouts have been down Throwing more forcing fastballs recently. It's been a little bit odd So going on the road here to face the Nationals 83 degrees in DC for today Very good often a very good weather for hitting today So you combine that with Corbin combine that with some Waryness or I'm a clan of hand. I think that does add up to Checking out the over here at eight runs. So if you don't want to go the money line You could take the total instead, but I'm willing to put a bit on the money line here and kind of just see what happens I have no interest in the run line. Maybe you're looking there like, okay I want the run line the Nationals plus one and a half and plus one twenty six zero interest for me because The odds they get blown out in a loss with Patrick Corbin starting are pretty high They could lose this game 14-nothing and I'm not gonna be shocked at all. So I'm not taking the run line here I want the money line if I'm gonna bet it all plus two twenty is a money line for the Nats And I do think that is fair So the money lines I like for today the Nats at plus two twenty if you want to go there the braids at plus one 106 the Giants at plus one fourteen in the Astros at minus two fifty five in the strikeout prop department I am on one of the guys we discussed in the money line section and that is Bryce elder elder again facing the Cardinals his Strikeout prop is at three and a half with minus one thirty on the over and I do think the over there is Love is good enough for me to take that. I feel good about elder being strike Yes, or stretched out because this is not his first start this year in the bit or overall Because he did make one start in triple A and in that game Six innings. I have elder projected for 85 pitches for tonight Looking at elder specifically last year was interesting because again, he mentioned I mentioned that he made Made nine total starts for those earlier in the year for them later on and it seemed like he may have made a Tweak in his pitch mix in that second stretch and he got a lot of strikeouts after he came back up Part of that may be because all five starts were against either the nationals or the marlins a very cushy schedule for sure But he is also a young guy He did make some tweaks as mentioned So maybe he unlocked something four strikeouts and his triple A starts not a ton there, but He's at three and a half right now in this one Minus 130 on the over is not nothing that is paying a decent amount honestly It's important to know what the implied odds these things are so you can realize the difference between Minus 105 minus 110 it actually does make a pretty big difference the implied odds of minus 130 56.5 percent that's a pretty decent mark for sure But with elder being stretched out with the possibility for more strikeouts. I think that's very fair I am not assuming the increase in strikeouts in last year sticks I'm actually assuming it kind of regresses to his full season number and even with that I have elder projected at 4.63 strikeouts. That's a decent amount above the 3.5 So Bryce elder over three and a half strikeouts minus 130 a decent spot for me to go to for today And the one strikeout prop I feel decent about you know, there are some other ones I was tempted by specifically Logan Webb if you want to shop around He was over four and a half at like minus 120, but then got seen to minus 140 minus 146 at fendal right now if you can find a minus 125 or so on web over four and a half I would take that but at least a fendal specifically elder is the one strikeout prop that I am buying into as mentioned before home run props Are not things I feel as much confidence in as money lines and Strikeout props these are more so for fun for me But there are two that I feel pretty good about based on looking at today's slate The first one actually does not mesh well with my thoughts on the nationals money line does mesh well with the total That's wonder franco hit home run now franco is plus 680 at fendal sports book I should mention he is eight to one elsewhere. So This is more of a broad recommendation of franco not a fendal specifically shop around see what you can get on him Uh, I got him eight to one earlier on this morning. So shop around there But franco I find this very interesting with his number being where it is given that for his career franco has been a more powerful guy betting right-handed versus a lefty than the opposite His iso versus lefties for his career is 208 versus 143 against righties The fly ball rate does go up a hair here and franco looks really good so far this year Specifically looking at the amount of loft he's getting his fly ball rate is 44 percent up from 31 percent last year and 34 percent the year before a lot injuries for franco last year So it makes sense that you might see some lag there does seem like he's maybe getting back to Being what he was in 2021 at least early on this year Not might not stick because it is a big jump for sure, but It is warm out again 83 degrees. He is facing patrick corbin who lets up a ton of hard contact so I think that 680 is a fair number again shop around you can get eight to one At least I was able to earlier on this morning But I do think that wander franco is undervalued in the home run prop market And I wouldn't be shocked if i'm just broadly on franco against lefties early on this year Given the number we're getting right now on this one. I also do not mind isaac paredes He is plus 430 a fandal. I need a longer number than that But if you can find paredes at a longer number than plus 430 I would take it He has said for a lot of power against lefties Probably going to bat third for today as well So paredes that would check out and then franco a plus 680 the primary guys catching my attention For the rays for today The other longer odds home run prop that I like for wednesday is going to be michael harris the second and that is In the brazier's cardinals game Facing off with myles michelis now harris over a fandal is eight to one to hit a home run for today That is similar to what he is in at other books as well So probably the better numbers you can get here is a fandal on harris at eight to one Harris similar to franco not a huge fly ball guy But he smacks the ball He had a 45 hard hit rate last year That is the percentage of balls in play with an exit velocity of 95 plus miles per hour 45 last year 60 percent in a very small sample so far this year 13.3 percent barrel rate this year was 10 percent last year and that's why You can see a guy hit 19 home runs in a small sample Relatively small sample last year because he wasn't in the big leagues the entire year You can see that happened despite not having a massive fly ball rate And that fly ball rate does go up against righties, which is what he'll face today Myles michelis starting here for the cardinals. He led up a 37 percent fly ball rate to lefties last year He's also been throwing a couple fewer sinkers recently Which has helped bring his ground ball right down a bit So harris is eight to one for a reason again It's probably because of the low fly ball rate because michelis broadly does a good job of keeping stuff on the ground there are reasons why Harris is lower here, but If harris lofts won he can put it in the seats and I think that that is very encouraging We know the hard contact should be there So home run prompts for today michael harris eight to one wander franco You can probably suck it eight to one so I would chop around for that one 680 at fan dual sportsbook strikeout prop is elder over three and a half strikeouts minus 130 in that braze cardinals game And then the money lines I like for today are the gnats at plus 220 if you can stomach it But then the braves at plus 106 the giants at plus 114 and the astros at minus 255 That is all that we have here for today On covering the spread if you want some daily fantasy thoughts on the early day games We'll have those over on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed in just a bit again If you're looking for our master's podcast search for recovering the spread wherever you get your podcast or go over to the fan dual youtube page If you've got any questions for me. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast back again tomorrow talking more baseball talking about Some nascar at bristol dirth this weekend looking forward to talking to all of you then about that This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network