 Hey traders, this is T Bradley 90 from the My Investing Club chat. As a special gift to every viewer on YouTube, there is a link in the description to apply for a free Breakthrough Trading Strategy session with myself. What does that mean? Alex created a free trading course for beginners and at the end of it we will be selecting a few non-members to get on the phone with myself, Tosh, T Bradley 90 to help with your trading. Click the link in the bio, watch the video and apply today. Now while today is just a preview of the full length video, if you wanna watch the full length or any of our exclusive content, then become a member of MIC. All right, so the webinar tonight is going to be on confidence. Okay, I have to move that over. Yeah, not the, I mean, it could be a lot worse. Definitely be a lot worse. You know, I mean, it's just quick ins, quick outs and it's just like, I give up. Yeah, I do that like sick. Oh yeah, so today's webinar is gonna be on confidence. And I think everybody struggles with this. So I think it's gonna be a good one. All right, so let's get going. And hopefully the bear shows up about halfway through. I think he's doing something right now. But anyway, let's go. All right, so what we're gonna do today is we're gonna talk about confidence. Gonna go over some key traders over the last week. Thankfully more than the last couple of weeks. It's been great. I'm gonna reflect on market sentiment as usual. The top, my topics today, I'm gonna talk about fallacies again, because it's kind of a segment I wanna continue because there's just so many of them that we deal with every single day and it affects almost everybody. So I hope, I'm hoping it's, it'll be beneficial. My favorite, I love talking about trading psychology. It's what I think is the most important part of the entire game. Then we're gonna finish with question and answer with the bear. And go over kind of his process a little bit. And like he's, the bear is just like, I mean, like it's just so amazing to see like he has the same setup every single time it's all he does. And it just, that's it, right? It's just like the ultimate discipline. So all right, let's get to it. So RC was one of these runners. And I think this was on its first day. I think this was its first day running when I wanted to short it. And so like Joe and I were, like Joe talked about in the webinar, I'm sorry, in the seminar at Philly, you know, like the idea that like 1030 is kind of an area where longs don't wanna be entering if it's at highs. And 1030 is an area where shorts don't wanna be entering if the socks are at lows, right? That's kind of based my idea around the, around this 1030 is short for ARCI. Yeah, this was on the 26th, it was like three days ago. And like it started to get like really consolidating really what I felt like was looked tired up here. So I decided to go ahead and start trying to form a position thinking that, thinking that the top had been in. So I just started scaling in around here, around the high day. And I even got this epic nice stuff short, like, and this is kind of what I wanted. I wanted it to pop over high day and stuff really hard. And I ended up time slash price stopping out. Like after it didn't just continue after a while, I just ended up cutting it out. And the one thing I could have done better is, and like the worst part about this is that I know this already. Like in the moment I knew immediately that I probably should have covered sooner, but I didn't because I got a little bit stubborn. But Joe mentioned this in the Philly webinar and it's called edge decay, right? And edge decay is the perfect word for it. Like it's something that I've known for a very long time, like what it is when I feel like I couldn't really put words to it until now, until Joe did. And it's the perfect, like it's the perfect wording, edge decay. So basically when I got this final ad up here on this stuff, I was really like, I was essentially really confident at that moment that like if this grade's gonna work, like here it goes. This is gonna be the time. So FFHL, so this is a sock. I actually messaged Joe about this one. This one was a good one. FFHL, like I almost fell into this trap, dude. I like right at the start when this popped up, I was like, I was digging in my heels, getting ready to, I'm gonna add to this short. I'm gonna, I'm gonna go, go, go, go, go, add, add, add, just I'm going for this win. This is gonna be a solid win if I just keep adding, right? So I was planning on, like I was planning on scaling all the way to 550, you know, like 556. I was getting ready to scale up here, but I don't know, I probably would have canned it here if I did, I would have lost patience the fact that it didn't happen here. And that's just me knowing my patience level, I probably would have got it. But like what's super cool is everybody in the room was like, why short this, why short this? And I'm like, you know what? Yes, why effing short this, right? Like just, why don't I just wait for something like this to happen before I short it? So that's what I did. And instead, because I did that, I was gonna short and start in small and add, add, add, oh, strap, start. But because I didn't, I was able to actually go for a first bounce grade. And because I knew I did wanna short it, I was innately kind of conservative with the exit. I'm totally fine with that decision because I did, you know, whenever I'm waiting to short something, if I am longing something, I know very well that I'm longing temporarily because I do want to short it eventually. So I'm like, I'll get the first bounce. I'm not gonna expect it to break the high of day of $5 again. So I wanted to take most off before it got up to five. So you can see most of my cells here are under five for the lower high. And I did save a piece for over and I didn't even save that much over. I kind of just had it at like 523 and it, you know, popped up and I got it. So there's a beautiful first bounce grade I got on it. And then like here I am, I'm just waiting for it to break down, right? I see this, I see this low and I'm waiting for it to break this low before I start shorting now. Now that this is kind of like the first significant low. So we get up here and I'm just waiting for it. And right here, I remember trying to get in a little better but I didn't get that grade of a fill this time. I normally do better, but I was a little slow. But anyway, I short here, it's good. It's important to know I'm willing to add as it pops back up here. I'm expecting this kind of stuff. So, but we get an immediate tank and I cover, I cover half of it here and I start adding in on the bounce. And this is the good example of when I did realize my edge decay, right? I did realize my edge decay. This kind of trade, the fact that it put everybody, all the chasers over water, underwater over here and it ignites all of the chaser shorts down here. I know that if I'm shorting up here and it's taking a significant amount of time, it's allowing everybody else who was slow. Like my edge on a breakdown trade should be that I short the breakdown and it tanks a lot into where I have kind of like an edge to average. At this point, it's giving everybody else a chance to have the same average as me, right? This kind of tank and immediate bounce trade should be met with selling pressure pretty immediately as all these guys try to sell, right? The next, the other trade I had this week was OSN. And I did a video lesson on this, if I'm gonna go over it again just in case anyone hasn't seen it. But I don't always go long when I do, I go short. So this was, I did make a video lesson. I'll go over fast or I'll try to go fast on this one. But for if you haven't seen it, this is a classic washout long pattern for me. And you know how I talked about in a previous webinar, how I talked about, there's often times there's going to be some variation to setups. This is an example of kind of a variation. I wanted the tank to come in the first couple of minutes of the day. That's normally how they happen. They're gonna happen in the first like one, two, three, four minutes of the day. Like it's gonna happen right here. I'm gonna get my washout, it's gonna come right back. This one did a little bit of a stutter first. So initially what I did actually, I had orders out on this stock to buy in the 40s and 50s down here. If it was gonna tank right away out of the open, that's where I had my orders, right? But when it consolidated a little bit, I actually said that I canceled my orders. I canceled my orders because I felt like it was gonna start grinding down. And I didn't want it to grind down on me. I wanted parabolic emotional downside panic type selling. And I eventually put the orders back when I saw a massive flush. I'm like, okay, that's what I want. I want the massive flush, especially it's right here near my support level. And a lot of people started to, not a lot, but a couple of people messaged me and asked me, like, you bought under the death line. Like, why did you do that, right? Like this being the death line. And to me, this is an example of an empty death line. First of all, at the open, I always expect volatility and I always expect emotional volatility to where, and I don't always place a whole lot of meaning behind the price action at the open because a lot of times it's just literally random clusterfucks candles going up and down, right? So I don't like to put a lot of emphasis or reasoning behind opening candles. Like if a stock breaks high day in the first candle, that doesn't mean like it's a breakout for me. Like, especially in the first candle, the first couple candles, right? So I have that kind of desensitization, what I talked about in Philly. I have that kind of desensitization about the open. And the other part, you know, so that's what makes me feel it's like an empty death line. It's just opening noise. The other reason why I think it's an empty death line is who's long, right? Like think about the way this kind of gapped up and pushed up on low volume, right? Pre-market, there's always low volume in relation to the market. And it kind of fell down. And I would bet that this isn't on, look at the volume. It's not necessarily on high volume, right? It's not like longs or super selling. It's probably like if you've ever seen pre-market action. Pre-market action, there's two ways stocks can go down, right? Bids can get chewed or bids can drop, right? So just because a stock fell harshly from highs doesn't necessarily mean a whole bunch of people are under water. It just means that the bids, the asks could have been elevated and the bids could have dropped where not a whole lot of volume was actually behind the move. And that's kind of most pre-market action. So when we're down here at the lows, it's kind of trading on illiquidity right here. We pop up at the open and so, okay. So those are I think were the key trades that I did this week that were worth talking about. So the market participants were kind of, I think less than last week, but definitely better than the last couple of weeks. And we still have some momentum going on, right? We had some good ones, ARCI, RKDA and LCI. They all carried the momentum forward and they're still kind of chugging, keeping the market alive a little bit. But I think one thing we saw from last week is a little bit decay in the overzealousness in the stocks. Like right, when we come off of a dead market into the bull market, right? Like everything goes absurd, right? But then we start to be used to it and you slowly see it taper off, but I think these are kind of carrying the momentum, still leaving it, still giving buyers the positive enforcement they have to keep buying stocks currently. Not everything is just slamming. Normally, so now what I'm on the lookout is these hints, right? OSN totally failed, right? LEDS totally failed. Oh, the other one, KBSF. KBSF, I forgot to put it in here. KBSF totally failed, DPW totally failed, like NTC had that fail. These are kind of hints that Momo's starting to run out. And I think we'll probably get one that starts to run and it offers or something and that'll probably be the killer, right? That shuts down the overzealous buying market. Oh, give me a second. Echo, Hawaii, man, it gets hot. And I was, you know, DPW and Mara kind of had its thing and I was actually a little disappointed that Bitcoin didn't gain any steam. I think the market does better when there's a fad because then sympathy market, like sympathy runners can tag on and be like, oh yeah, well we're Bitcoin too, like just put out a cryptocurrency, something in their PR. If DPW, if DPW is going nuts, then like Bitcoin is crazy in small cap plan. All any company has to do is like put out, oh yeah, we're thinking about getting into cryptocurrency and like they'll be up 50% if it's a low flow. Don't worry, oh, like it's recorded. Oh gosh, I hope so. I just got to check, yeah, okay. You know, but the good news is in, yeah, blockchain overreaction, right? But some more positive is one thing I'm liking to see is that the market seems to be shaking off Trump tweets, like Trump's tweet, like Trump had a huge tweet, a rant on China the other day. Oh yeah, we are no longer a tea company. We are a long blockchain. Yeah, and SPU, Sky People Fruit Juice went to like a FTFT tech company because of it. But yeah, the market seems to be shaking off Trump tweets, like he just had this big rant on China and it really tanked the market, but the market recovered, right? And like, I feel like the market's starting to get a little desensitized to Trump tweeting, which is really good. Like it's really annoying for large cap traders when you're in a stock and all of a sudden it just tanks because a spy takes a dump. Like it really just messes up your trading and you gotta be like, do I ignore this? Is it gonna recover? Like it's starting to or do I have to sell? Like it's getting really annoying, but I'm starting to see a little bit of less reaction each time. Like the tank, like there was one today a tank, but it quickly recovered, right? No, you don't. No, you don't, like not at all. Like the market, the totally irrelevant, right? Or this is one that I find myself falling for a lot. Like I'm only asking and I still fall for this one. I'm only asking for one pull, 10 cents, which I'm just looking for a little bit of profit. My cover is literally right there. It's literally right there. I'm gonna make eight cents on this trade. Can I just make eight cents? Like that's all I'm asking for. I should be able to get this. Like if a stock is trending, there is zero obligation for the stock to pull and get you out, right? Cause long traders that are keeping the trend aren't gonna sell until that level breaks, right? They're not selling until that level breaks. They don't wanna be forced to sell. Like this is how trends work. But you think that you're waiting for that one pull that's gonna give you that little bit of profit and because you're only seeking a little bit, you feel like you deserve it. That you're entitled to that profit and that's just a fallacy, right? It doesn't, that's not the, like, and if you cling to these, you're going to get like toxic, you're gonna get desperate and it's gonna really affect your mentality, right? Another one, my last three shorts didn't work. So this one's definitely gotta work, right? Like this is the gambler's fallacy, right? Like, you know, 50% heads and tails and you flip a coin, like, if you flip it 99 times and it's heads, the next time's probably gonna be tails. Like, no, each time is each trade is so individual, like no trade matters before your trade. You have to go into every single trade pretending it's the first trade you ever took because the market doesn't care, right? Market doesn't care if it's, if the last three trades were losers because for all the market knows your last three trades could have been winners, right? But we get into this toxic thinking where we feel like we deserve and we're entitled for whatever reason or not. You know, another one, I always pay for chasing. Every time I chase, I lose. This time should be the time where I win, right? This time should be the time where I win by chasing because I see chasing working for everybody else but not me and I always lose. So watch me not trade, watch me not chase this time and have it work. I'm not gonna lose. No, there isn't. Can you guys hear me? Yeah, yeah. Okay, yeah. Okay, cool. Yeah, because I couldn't hear you so I wanted to switch my speakers so, but I didn't want them to overhear it from the mic. Okay. Cool, cool. Yeah, man. So like, and yeah, I wanted to bring you on just cause it just seems like such a good risk or award setup, a good high probability. So can you walk it through one more time? Like what is your, like, what's your favorite thing to see on these gappers short view? Yeah, exactly. So first thing, I look for the daily chart. I want to see like when they gap up like the before like in history when they gap and they fade all day. So I want to see like these big red candles on the daily when there's volume. So when they gap and then they fade all day. And then I have like a checklist. I have a checklist for the criteria. So I'm looking for the flow to be over like three, four million market gap over 10 to 15 million and low institution ownership and the short flow. So yeah, the IO, I prefer to be less than 30% short float less than 20% 30%. And I just wait. I want, I want the gap to be to open like over 30%. So we could have some, if it fades like there's some meat on it. And they do the line same. So same what Joe like explain it for the deadline. That's why I used to do like spin now almost a year. And they wait like when they confirm the breakdown the deadline, I just short man. And if it's close to the view ups they use view up as a guide, as a risk. So yeah. And yeah, man. That's the thing. So I try my best to stick like only for the confirmation like for the backside confirmation. I don't want to short the front side unless like there's a heavy, heavy resistance on that push. Yeah. And so yeah. I think you said something like you trade off five minute candles. Yeah, exactly. I trade five minute. I used to trade the one minute like two years ago when they start trading like now it's been like almost three years. But yeah. And then they change it to the five minute. I found it like I can hold longer. It gives me the more patient like to hold longer because you know the one minute can fake you out. And yeah. Yeah. And even like on these breakdowns like the deadline if you use the five minute it's much clearer than the one minute because in the one minute you can get fake it very easily. So yeah. In the five minutes it's much better in my opinion. Yeah, yeah. And like I noticed that like all of your charts are five minute and like so do you technically do you wait for the candle to close before like you like is that your confirmation? Like. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. I want to see a hard stuff like under for example today ARCI it was a little tricky. I didn't trade it because actually I didn't locate it. The locate was very high like I think 0.17 something. Yeah. So yeah. For example like this one because it and the problem is with the SSR and the low flow. So for example, we have like the support at 580, right? 590 and 18. All right. The ideal, the ideal like the ideal setup for this one is a wait for the open and then it stuffs that level. So but the problem here it happens pretty much it happens around, let me check. It happened around 920, right? 920 Eastern time. And then you can see like after the open it pushed like over that level and then it's stuffed. So that candle like at 945, that's the best. Like if you can see like it closed under and then you can shut all pops using V1. That's basically what I'm doing. So the best case scenario that the breakout happened after 910, not the pretty much. That's the best way. Right, right. Yeah. Cause I'm looking at this chart and I know you'd be right here. You would be right there. Exactly. I just know that's bear's entry. But the thing is, but the problem with the ARCI, the odds gets lower. I mean, because it's the same pattern but there's different winning percentage I think because of the SSR I mean like and the low float it's a nano float, it's changed. You see what I mean? But the ideal setup for this one is the same thing but the float could be like over 4 million, 5 million without the SSR. You see what they mean, right? Right. Yeah. Yeah, like SSR makes my trades better, right? Oh, I forgot to mention that. I don't know, I said the SSR was on. But yeah, like SSR makes logs better. So I mean, it should normally just make shorts crappier. Exactly. Yeah. Yeah. And yeah, so you guys can be free to ask questions if you guys want and we'll just go. Yeah, yeah. And we'll get to them as you go. Or as we were talking. But today, man, I really messed up, man, in LCI. I don't know what happened. I traded day two like on the gap down. I was just gonna get there to be and I don't know what happened, man. I totally lost all the display. Actually, I've been like trading very well the past two weeks. I made only maybe five trades, I think. It's the same exact setup. And today, yeah, man, I just didn't locate ARCI. I found myself trading LCI. Of course, that's always the way it works, man. Yeah, man. Sometimes we pay for it. But yeah, like this one was just, I mean, this just didn't give a relief. I mean, you and Joe got out at like prime times because this could have been bad. Exactly. Just that add, add, add, add, add. Like here's the dip. You're, everyone wants it. And then it just comes in like this. Anyway, so Brandon has a good question. Do you stop looking for deathline plays after 10.30? It depends because after 10.30, it's gonna be a different like setup, okay? Which is, I think you talked about it in one of your webinars, which is the best the one they fade late day after two o'clock, right? Right. So if it starts making new high and then it's consolidating, that's the new deathline. And then you can short it after two p.m. Yeah, it works. Yeah, yeah. That's a different story. Yeah, that's a different story because the best ones, like I mean, if it's gonna be an all day fader, like it fades all day, it's gonna happen before 10.30. Because yeah, yeah, it's gonna happen before 10.30 for sure. Yeah, normally, yeah. After 10.30, it's totally different pattern. I mean, it's the one you like. It's the one they fade late day after two p.m. It works, 100% it works. Yeah. All the time. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. 100% but I mean, yeah, it works. I mean, after two p.m. Yeah. Yeah, and so yeah, I think that's what works. I agree too, like that though. I don't think deathlines really happen much, especially if they do like rip up in the middle of the day. I think the chances of those fading, but I think the chances just dwindle down to like, when they break high a day from the morning and there's a new client, like the all day fade almost goes away and that two p.m. crack is like, I've become kind of like a piker on that crack instead of even looking for the fade there because they just have been holding lately, not even like, like if the deadline doesn't like, totally happen like a volume deathline in the morning, I don't think they're gonna fade. So yeah, yeah. Yeah, you got to wait till two to even attempt it again. So yeah, basically actually for me, like on this specific like setup, if it's gonna break down. I mean, like by 9.30, you can know it's gonna happen. See what they mean, right? The pre-market chart will be like format, like pull, and you can see where the support is, where the deadline is. And then, so I mean for the new guys, if you want to avoid like, to know, and then you can leave like a computer so you don't make anything. You can know like by 9.00 a.m., making 9.30, you can see the pre-market chart. For example, ARCI, it was clear, like it was clear the support was the support, but some of the charts, they're not like really clear. You see what they mean, right? Yeah, exactly. So sometimes if you see me like, I leave by 9.30, before the market even opens, I just shut down my desk and I leave here, just to avoid. Yeah, otherwise you're just gonna lose. You're just gonna lose money if you stay like all the time. Exactly. Hey traders, this is Tosh. I go by T Bradley 90 in the My Investing Club Chat. Just wanted to reach out and say if you have any questions about MIC, joining MIC, maybe you're a member already, you have three ways to contact myself personally and through MIC. You can hit our social media. You can hit me through PMs in chat or you can contact us through my email at tosh at myinvestingclub.com. That's T-O-S-H at myinvestingclub.com. I will get back to you in a timely manner and I'm saying this because I'm here to help and I don't want anybody to be afraid to reach out and ask any question that they have. We are here for you guys. All right, see you guys.