 Hello, everyone. Welcome to another capsule for the Shankar IAS Academy. We'll talk today about the G7 summit, which took place in Germany from 26th to 28th of June. All of you know what G7 is. The most powerful countries in the world. The United Kingdom, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan. So except for Japan, all other countries are members of NATO. And they are the richest countries in the world because now richness and poverty cannot be measured easily. And Japan is the only country which is outside Europe, outside NATO. But Japan is as much part of the western world as the others are. So G7 was formed to represent the richest countries in the world. And their focus was always on the well-being of the world more than G7 itself. Because G7 did not have many problems among themselves or they did not have any economic problems of their own relatively compared to the rest of the world. So G7 meetings used to express solidarity with each other. Not only to help each other to develop their security and their development and their ability to combat whatever problems there are in the world. And then try and see what they can contribute to the rest of the world. So it was an outward-looking organization. It was set up in 1975. It does not have any, it's an intergovernmental organization. And the basic approach was to global economic governance and security. But this particular conference which took place this year in June was held against very different circumstances. At the moment, G7 is very much a target of attack by several powers, particularly Russia. So even though during the Cold War there was that struggle, but the last 20 years or so there was no real opposition from Russia against G7. In fact, at one time Russia was invited to G7 and it became G8. But later Russia was expelled from there because of certain views held by the Russian Federation. So this time the backdrop of the conference was very different. They were concerned about themselves rather than about the world. So the first important thing that you remember is G7 became inward-looking rather than outward because of their own extremely important problems. And the first and the foremost is the war in Ukraine. All these six countries as members of NATO are arrayed against Russia in a conflict. But as far as G7 is concerned is an in absentia conflict. The conflict is between Russia and Ukraine. But G7 countries, since they are NATO countries are very much in the opposition to the Russians. But fortunately it's not a physical war between them. Then it would have become a world war. But what has happened is that the NATO has decided to counter Russia and to defeat Russian ambitions. You have talked a lot about Russian ambitions. I am not going into that. But their declared ambition was to secure the security of Russia against NATO. And therefore these countries are directly opposed to Russia. And this is a situation which had not happened since G7 was formed. So they were advising others. They were giving support to other countries to develop. And when the economic collapse happened in 2008, they even agreed to have a group called G20. In which they brought in not only G7 countries but also other major developing countries because they felt that the G20, a larger group, may be able to find solution to the economic problems at that time. But G20 still continues, we'll come to that. But this time G7 was very much focused on their primary crisis, primary problem, which is the war in Ukraine. The second big problem is the post-pandemic economic recovery. Because unlike the developing world, the developed world and particularly G7 suffered a lot because of the pandemic. We know that much of the losses took place in the US. It happened in Italy and France and in Japan. So it was an unprecedented situation where the rich countries suffered even more than the poor countries. So they were all initially separately trying to settle this, but then later as G7 they were able to coordinate a little bit. The United Nations could not coordinate because of China. And somehow we seem to have reached the end of the tunnel, but still not sure whether there is light at the end of the tunnel, whether there is another wave waiting for the world. So the uncertainty of the post-pandemic period and the eternal issue of climate change. So these were the three major catastrophes or major crises that G7 discussed. Of course G7 also invited some other countries, some developing countries including India. And there was Argentina, there was India, there was Indonesia, there was Senegal and there was South Africa. Some of these countries are already in G20, but these were merely observers. They were not party to many of the decisions that G7 took. So let's take the first issue is the crisis in Ukraine because there is no clarity of how this war can end. Russia is not talking about ceasefire, they're not talking about diplomacy, any dialogue, anything. They started off by saying that they want to secure their borders. Then they said they had to secure those three republics which had broken away from Ukraine. Then they said they want direct access to Crimea, they wanted to deny Ukraine the shipping ports etc. And of course finally, Mr. Putin is visualizing an old Soviet empire coming. So there is no guarantee as to where it is going. And the success that NATO had was in holding up Russia all these three to four months. Because this was supposed to be a complete walkover for Russia, it did not happen. And for that, what did they do? What they did was giving full support to Ukraine. Even G7 leaders visited Ukraine during the war, which is very, very, very unfair. And full support to them, but no boots on the ground, no soldiers from NATO. Weapons were being given very, very much. And one of the first things they decided at G7 was, they will give unconditional commitment to Ukraine, financial, humanitarian, military, and diplomatic support. And stand with Ukraine in NATO commas so long as it takes. So this was the core of the decision taken in Germany by the G7. That they will stand firmly on the side of Ukraine. They also don't say where it will end, but they say that as long as it takes, where it takes a few more days or months or years, we will stand by Ukraine. So there is no relaxation, no concession made to Russia. And therefore, the special declaration on Ukraine, which was adopted by the G7, are full of promises of support and also criticizing Russia in very harsh terms. And the address to the rest of the world is to help G7 countries to resist Russia and to defeat Russia. So you will see throughout the declaration, all these ideas that Russia is committing war crimes, Putin should be tried for that. Then as far as sanctions are concerned, they are targeting very many things. The oil supplies, price of gold, oil prices, restricting access to technology. So all the possible opposition to Russia with the purpose of defeating it and discrediting it. And the call that goes out from this declaration to the other countries is to help them in this process. So they point out the dangers that are involved in this particular adventure by President Putin. And so they would like the other countries, the developing countries included, to support them. And G7, as you know, is a very powerful group. It has 10% of the world population, 31% of global GDP, 21% of global carbon dioxide emissions, not a positive thing, but negative, but that shows how much they are developing industry. And it plays a very big role in global trade. And also it is in the power to help or hurt other countries. So the point that they are making is that the sanctions are absolutely essential. And if the sanctions have to be effective against Russia, others have to cooperate. That is one of the reasons why G7 is not particularly happy with India, because India is accused of being supportive of Russia, not only by not condemning it, that is one aspect. The second aspect is we seem to be discouraging, bursting sanctions by buying oil from Russia and also making arrangements for rupee, ruble payments etc. Which means the complete hold of the big countries, the developed countries, the G7 countries on the economy is being relaxed by India in this phase. But India is, I mean, explaining it that this is for our own need. We have a role to play in what is going to happen in the field of energy, in the field of food. And these are going to create big problems in the world if the war continues. And therefore India has the responsibility not only to protect itself, but also to make sure that the world itself does not suffer on account of this war. So, but India was not invited to discuss the Ukraine issue, because that was discussed only in themselves. So they met to corner Russia and to hold the hold of their political and economic power. And because it had shifted to Asia, you know, China has emerged, India has emerged. Therefore there has been some kind of decline in the superior position that the G7 has acquired. So they have produced an extraordinarily long communique. And the tone is that of the old powerful group that G7 is, because they are still most powerful. But it did not sound as confident as the previous. So their anxiety too, about what is going to happen in the world. What would happen to NATO? What would Russia achieve? All these shows, they show that concern. So there is a ring of confidence in the declaration that we are still the most powerful group in the world. But they also showed some weaknesses in the sense that they wanted the rest of the world to support them in fighting against Russia. But surprisingly also it was very critical of China, not surprisingly, because China and Russia are now new allies. So there is a G20 summit which is going to take place in Indonesia. So they are even talking in terms of expelling Russia from G20, as it was expelling from G7 earlier. So its own propaganda is being given, its own propaganda that we will recover, we will not suffer an account of this crisis. And therefore, they are themselves believing what they are saying that we are invincible, we cannot be defeated, etc. So as a group, they are saying that Russia is responsible for all this. NATO's responsibility, of course, is not talked about. You know that the first question was why Ukraine was being admitted to NATO, that is why this crisis arose. So a counter narrative against Russia and China have to be developed. And the rules-based international order has been necessary to be restored. Because now the global order is a little bit in confusion. And so they think that they should counter these by G7 by itself and as well as by the other countries. They want to rope in other countries. And they say that continued to expand NATO's lengthless expansion of NATO and repudiation of arms treaties. And Putin is being accused of war crimes. The new countries likely to join against Russia, considering that supporting the market in such a way that does not support Russia in any manner, but strengthen the other countries. Even the other problems of the world, they are saying that it is because of Russia. Hunger and malnutrition is the result of Russia's weaponization. Because they're spending too much money on weapons and progress towards an equitable world. So the point that you have to remember is that it is more weaknesses than strengths that the G7 seems to emphasize. And so that shows how critical it is. And it also shows the determination to act together. But there is no disunity among all of them, among the seven of them. And their effort was to bring in others into the act. Prime Minister Modi was present there, but he did not speak on this issue because he was invited to speak on some general economic issues, particularly climate change, energy security, etc. Which he spoke about the need for this, which would affect everyone, both G7 and other countries. But he did not join in the chorus against Russia. So he wanted the capabilities of G7. He mentioned that the capabilities of G7 should be deployed in order to give advantage to other countries to fight all these crises. The economic crisis which will grip them because of the great war, the pandemic situation is still not under control. The reconstruction after the pandemic is very urgent for others. And so what is happening is, though Mr. Modi did not say it in so many words, was that the whole structure of the world, which was set up by the G7 countries to benefit the world and now be eroded by they themselves because of this problem. So the builders of the system chipping away at the foundations of it is the feeling that people got. So Argentina, Indonesia, Senegal, South Africa, etc. They were there basically to represent the developing world and they focused issues on their own problems, the need for strengthening the UN. The questions arising out of China's expansionism, energy, environment, health, security, all this were demanded of the G7. So in India, they was very interested in finding solutions to the problems of the world and other developing countries also contributed to that. On one hand, we have this statement by G7, which is very strongly anti-Russian and anti-Chinese and on the other hand, there were planning solutions for the developing world. So the number one measure that they have established for the sake of the rest of the world. And it's called partnership for global infrastructure and investment. See, after the Chinese have brought out their BRI, Belt and Road Initiative, in order to support developing countries or at least in the guise of supporting developing countries, they were catching them in a debt trap as it happened in the case of Sri Lanka, we know. So many countries are trying to get out of BRI because all these money which was given to them as loans carried heavy interest and they were not able to pay interest because these projects were not self-supporting and they had to spend money on them. And the famous port at Habantota has been given away to China on lease. So there was a feeling, most of the countries of the world except India joined BRI. There has been a suspicion that BRI will not help. And in order to counter that, they developed this partnership for global infrastructure and investment which is called PGI to give loans, you know, is giving for building roads and bridges and belts. So developing projects in middle income countries is there. But they themselves, their expenditure is higher than their income, they themselves are in debt, but they decided that this would strengthen or at least give some confidence in the middle income countries, particularly like India. And they have decided to build a fund of about 600 billion US dollars in order to support the developing countries. That was the other aspect of the G7 meeting. So the outcome of the seven meeting is not entirely satisfactory for anybody because they did not show any new way of either ending the war or resolving the context. And because of their own difficult situation, they were not able to focus on problems of other countries. Their responsibility as the most developed, most industrialized countries, you know, the United Nations has decided long, long ago that they should provide at least 0.7% of their national income for developing countries, which nobody has pushed. So all those, and therefore they wanted to on the one hand, precise Russia and China, and then try to win away the others who are friendly to Russia and China to join them to solve these problems. And therefore they had to put up this idea of an investment fund, which would help the participants. And that was the participation, because as I mentioned that as a guest, they were addressing specific issues. But they did ask questions as to what this is all going to do. What will it amount to, how will it affect the world. And that question was an uppermost of the people who attended it from the developing countries. So G7's demands on China, their reluctance to reform the world, all these were in the minds of the people. So G7 partnership on in infrastructure and investment was a major step forward. But that did not give as much, get as much appreciation as it would have normally got with us. Their focus was on their own problems. And their objective was to get others to help them fight Russia, rather than to help the other countries. So, in a way, we cannot say that G7 summit was in any way successful, either for them or for the rest of the world. For them, it's a crisis situation. And therefore they are not able to coordinate their economic policies, because they have to spend a lot of money on arms and ammunition for Ukraine. And therefore the words in the declaration were very strong and very critical of both Russia and China. But there was nothing positive in it about themselves. They're talking more about the problems that they are facing and the solutions they could. So that way, from G7's perspective, it was not powerful enough. It was not problem solving enough. They openly expressed their views very strongly and accusing Russia and China of all evils in the world. On the other hand, the developing countries expressed their concern about the food situation, about the fuel situation, about the climate change situation. Because the years, carbon-free, carbon emission, net carbon emission free, years that have been fixed, time is running out. Where are the funds available? How can they reach their targets and all those questions? But if they're in a normal situation, it would have been G7 sitting on one side and the other sitting on the other and trying to resolve the world's problems as there has just been this in the world. That's not what happened. What happened was their clamour for support from the rest of the world. And these new measures were basically some kind of incentive for them to work with G7. And therefore the scene will now shift to G20, which is a larger body. There's no veto in G20 and it's an economic body. So G7 was just pitching for that. When they go to G20, what are they going to ask for? But G20 includes China and Russia and many other major developing countries. And therefore that's a much balanced body and therefore maybe some more cooperative and collaborative arrangements will be made in G20. So but as far as G7 was concerned, its focus was very much on Ukraine without suggesting any solution. They were simply declared that they will fight Russia as long as it takes, which is not a very happy modus operandi. It is not very happy for other countries because we really do not know just like the pandemic. We do not know where we are going and we are living with the pandemic and so now they say we have to live with the Russia-Ukraine war also. But the atmosphere in the world is such that as I wrote in an article in Hindu day before yesterday, the atmosphere is not very conducive for multilateral conferences of this kind. Because this is a time when individual countries are weighing their options. Everybody is holding their cards to their chest and wondering which way I should go in order to get the most advantage for us. And therefore these groups, when you go into groups, what you're trying to do is to find the lowest denominator. On what point can we all agree? And then that is very shallow. They cannot go very deep because one person or the other will object to the kind of positions you want to take. And therefore the multilateral negotiations need a peaceful atmosphere. People are not either very aggressive or they are not in very grave situations. But since the world itself is in a situation, people are reluctant to join up with this group or this side or not. So the multipolar world that we have been dreaming about, thinking about is not about to happen. So at the moment what I was suggesting in my article was basically that we must focus on bilateral discussions with countries. Find out what they're and find in bilateral discussions, find out whether there is a joint agreement. And then when the situation improves, you will know where these countries are likely to go. And then you may be able to go to the G1 or G20 or many other bodies and then find solutions for the world. But there is no time frame for it. But I pointed out also that Prime Minister's visit to the UAE after his visit to G7, after his visit to Quad and Iain Briggs. UAE, he was there only for a short while. But that was much more effective than what he did in other countries in my view. There was this crisis about somebody having criticized the profit and the Muslim world was very upset. And there are lots of rumors that Indians will be thrown out of the Gulf countries. So many things and that has been contained. And the Prime Minister's visit to the UAE at this particular moment was very, very helpful. And there are several things that Indian UAE can do together. And the atmosphere, the better atmosphere in the case of a UAE might have benefited our relationship with other Islamic countries also. So his time spent in G7 was basically to show our presence, tell them our priorities. But in UAE, it was much more specific. And the outcome was much more favorable and positive in a bilateral context. Thank you. The only similarities are one like that. NATO and G7 are united, as I said, out of G7, six are in NATO. So NATO and G7 are united because G7 is NATO and NATO is G7. It is a major countries on the one hand. But as against Russia, their position is completely solid and completely and very strong. Thank you very much.