 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody, and welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a really good trading week. We'll get to the events. Incredible market does continue just for a second. If you are brand new to the channel guys, the only thing we ask is take a second if you could be so kind, like the video, share the video, subscribe if you haven't done so already. It'll help the channel grow. It'll help us continue to push forward on a day to day basis with unbiased technical analysis. So let's talk about the week. A lot of the things happened this week. Market continues to push higher highs and higher highs and higher highs for the week. Look at the numbers for the week guys. You got the QQQs up 1.4% for the week, 6.6% year to date. This is after being up 54% in 2023. The S&P 500 up 1.6% for the week, up almost 7% year to date after being up 20% in 2023. But the one that is really pushing through and a lot of people are using this as a barometer now is the semiconductors. The SMH is staggering numbers. Semiconductors for the week up 3.4%, 19% year to date. That is a very, very big number. And obviously, again, look at the strongest stocks in the market. They're all semis. The earnings had phenomenal run. If you go back to October 31, which really wasn't that much far off. We were at 400 and the stock has basically doubled since October 31, which is absolutely phenomenal. SMCI continues to trade like a low-flow stock having 100-200 point ranges now every single day is holding up. But there's a two-way channel developing. We'll get to that in a second. I think it could be a pretty good value for all you guys who trade the semiconductor names. You have names like Meta continuing to pull through. And although the one really weird thing about Meta, and I've traded it now four or five times since the earnings, and no complaints, no complaints. I will get to the pivots on Friday in a second. It's giving you those $2, $3 moves, $4 moves, but they're not giving that two, three, four-day continuation, which is very, very odd, especially after a company has come out with such great earnings, come out with this distribution of their first quarterly dividend ever. So it's kind of weird that it hasn't had that multi-day push that a lot of companies that have a positive earnings report tend to do. But again, something very odd there. Name like Microsoft, right? Microsoft has been pretty steady forming a base here above the 10-day moving average, which is obviously now the line in the sand. Again, the coolest thing about trading technicals, instead of trading your opinion, you have a line in the sand on the downside and you have a level of interest where stocks need to reclaim to the upside. And that's the cool part about it is, again, we're not guessing. Every trade that I put on, I'm trying to win my interval. Basically, the way I trade, I only have six candles throughout the day, six one-hourly candles. There's a top of the range, the bottom of the range, there's a middle of the range, what we call the sneaky pivot. Again, if you watch the PS60 workshops, you kind of an inclination of what that means, and that is it. So I'm not trying to see, you know, guess where the stock is going to be three hours from now on the close next Thursday or next Valentine's Day. It's winning our interval. And because there's such a definitive line in the sand and a lot of these stocks, both on the upside and the downside, it makes things a lot easier. Your FOMO is going away because you're just waiting for that channel to confirm. Again, not the easiest thing to do, especially when you're still in your honeymoon stage as a brand new trader. But as you get older, as you get more screen time, it's much easier to kind of sit back, relax. And this is kind of where we always talk about, especially I always try to reiterate on social media. After my initial game plan is done, whether it's a long side, short side, I'm not actively looking for trades. The trades will actively find you, whether you find some option flow, repeat buyers coming in with short term expiration, one side or the other, or an alert that you set for yourself three weeks ago. So for example, on eSignal here, and I use eSignal Classic, not eSignal, no legacy, excuse me. I use eSignal Legacy and the most amazing part is just to give you an idea how long I'm trading. If you go to about, this is not too many people here use eSignal Legacy, but I created this profile in May 2001. Just to give you an idea how long I've been trading, but most important is every single year that goes by, you're trading less and you're getting better value for more. Again, it's not how many trades you put on, it's how many trades you put on properly. So that part of your game is going to kind of get better as you get into the game year by year, goes by, it gets much easier to kind of wait for value to take place. But overall, again, incredible market continues. This week we saw FOMC minutes pretty much reiterating what we saw in the last conference, nothing really earth shattering there. The market continues to push higher. The question is for how long? And now we want to make sure that our rose-colored glasses are off, right? As much as there's some really great setups continue to the long side for next week. I'm going to give you guys a couple of short setups that look pretty good as well. And years ago, I traded really a couple of really big euphoria markets. The first one was obviously Dotcom. I wasn't ready for the rug pull. Didn't believe that the market was ever going to end. It was a disaster. That 2004 to 2007 run was pretty euphoric. Not it is how it is today. Wasn't really ready for the mortgage crisis. Really wasn't ready for potential Armageddon. Had a really, really negative opinion there. Even when you go back to the start of the recent COVID rallies, a lot of people weren't prepared for 2022. I was because, again, the time will make you better. Time will make you smarter. At least in my case, less dumber. And you start figuring out that, hey, you know what? You're not going to have a linear move in your career stocks. You're not going to have a linear run. There will be aggressive pulls. And what we saw, if you guys remember what we saw a week ago, right? We talked about a potential rug pull on this inverted hammer. The next day, the NASDAQ went down 2%. So you have to see the signs. You have to see the signs. You have to appreciate the trading both sides of the market. So let's talk about some ideas, right? Let's talk about some ideas for next week. Obviously, technically, there's nothing really much to talk about if you look at the QQQs. Again, you know, we're kind of, you know, you're not going to really start getting defensive until the QQs start losing the 10-day moving average. A close below 433, you should start taking a little bit of a risk, at least for that one day. Again, if you're a position trader, you know, you turn around and say, ah, damn, you know what? I'm holding these things for a while, and that's fine. This broadcast is not really for position traders that are holding a position for seven months. This is a day-to-day issue. That's, again, I could be bullish once at stock one day. I could be bearish the stock the next day. It's basically based on the formation of the channel that it's about to confirm. So going into this week, I don't use the word line in the sand. But again, you want to be a little bit less aggressive overnight if you see the QQs lose the 10-day moving average. So far, they held them and they're building upon them in the last couple of days because of NVIDIA's earnings and some of the really, really big moves in the semiconductor. But watch, you know, watch the potential line close above below 433. If we could close below 433 in the NASDAQ 100, you might get some value to the downside. Obviously, to the upside, it just keeps on grinding and grinding. You look at the SPYs, kind of the same thing. You know, a big, big move here. You want to watch the previous days low of 507. That was yesterday's low. Watch that 507 level because if the bearers start taking control and start putting in the ceiling below 507, we could get a back test to 503, which correlates back to the 5-day moving average. So keep an eye on that as well. And the semiconductors, right? You can see here pretty visual. Again, before you understand all the nuances and moving parts of technical analysis, sometimes your eyeballs are the best, you know, are the best version of identifying trends. You can see here this linear regression line, which a lot of people don't use. I have been using it for years. You can see here that the SMH has stopped twice at 206. Everybody see that, guys? That was Thursday's low. That was Friday's low. If you were looking for a poll, for example, on a video or SMCI, I'll get to SMCI in a second, you want to start watching that 206 level because if that 206 level starts to lose on the semiconductors, even if it's for a gravity type of trade, right? Gravity top of trade. Again, I don't want to use the word blow off top, but a gravity sort of trade, the semiconductor is going to need to lose 206. If they start to lose 206, then you could get a move all the way down to the 10-day moving average of roughly 202 and change. So that's definitely a really good line in the sand because it held back-to-back days of support on that linear regression line. So let me give you guys some ideas for Monday. We'll start with the upside channels, right? Amazon looks good. Looks good held up for the last couple of days. Jeff Bezos has now sold a ton of stock. It looks like the market has embraced that selling in the last few weeks. We'll see. The key is Amazon needs to get above Friday's channel and start to build. We saw some pretty decent short-term expiration bets for the 180, 185s going into April and May. So this is definitely one that stood out. Does it mean it's going to rally on Monday? It doesn't mean anything. It still needs to confirm Friday's channel, but at least you can tell compared to its peers in the mega-cap technology group, it's held up very, very well, now it's one day away from reclaiming Friday's channel. And if the market does rally on Monday, it can give a good push. Sticking with the semiconductor names, Qualcomm, not there just yet, right? Not there just yet. It's not imminent there. It's not imminent yet, but it's a nice-looking channel. It really is. Keep an eye for the January highs this week. It's not imminent, guys. It's not imminent. It's still three, four hours away. But keep an eye, set an alert on Qualcomm. If it could start building above the January highs, going into this week in the hot space, it could be very good. The same thing with arm holdings. Arm had a phenomenal, phenomenal three-day run into earnings, after earnings, excuse me, going from in the 70s all the way up to 164. It's just consolidating here. It's consolidating here basically about a week and a half now below this channel if the semiconductors continue to push. Keep an eye on this thing above this channel as well. Looks very good, right? Looks very, very good as well. So keep an eye on that. Let me see what else I want to give you guys from the long side. Take a look. It's not a sexy stock. It's not. It's not every single thing needs to be sexy. But look at New Corp, right? In the steel group. That's a beautiful-looking chart. It's not going to be a fast-moving stock. It's not going to up $10 on one day, $20 on the next day. If you do trade a non-megacap technology name, this is a good-looking chart. Keep an eye on this for this week. Again, it's not something that I'm going to look at. But I found this chart. It's a beautiful consolidation. It's a month-month-and-change consolidation. It's a beautiful trade. It's a potentially really good trade. So keep an eye on it for this week. Unfortunately, not all roses are blooming, right? Let me give you guys two there or not, right? So here is Apple. Apple has not participated whatsoever in this whole dramatic market. It's not that far away from the bottom of the range. And it's also not even close to the top of the range. The longer Apple cannot rally. And if we do get some sort of pull in the next couple of weeks or the next couple of days, whatever the case may be, watch Apple below this bottom of the range, guys. I'm telling you, this thing is not participated at all. Honestly, I think I'm going to start looking at this thing this week if it does rally into any type of supply, start rejecting it. It just can't rally. It shows you here. Every single time it rallies into supply, what happens? It gets rejected. Into supply gets rejected. Into supply gets rejected. So any strength this week, at least in the beginning, I want to see if it gets rejected off supply again, maybe start shorting it against supply on the way down. But the one that is staring out like a sore thumb is Tesla. We got long Tesla above this break about a week ago, had a great run. I'm not complaining on the run. Went from the $196.50 area to $205 and change pre-market the next day, which was great. The problem is it failed this range. It started putting in lower highs and keep this in mind. This is really the one that has never rallied. That didn't come close to rallying with anything else. And as soon as it lost the 50-day moving average, if you guys have been watching this broadcast for a long time, you kind of know what happens. You lose the 50-day. It's a wrap. It's a short-term, long-term, medium-term wrap. And that's exactly what's been happening, then blown up on earnings. I'm watching the bottom of the range here this week. Guys, I'm telling you, if Tesla starts losing the bottom of the range, and despite the aggressive call buying that we saw this week, again, my initial interpretation of this is, hey, this thing is putting in now three days of lower highs, it lost back its range, date two below the five-day moving average. The key is, if it loses the bottom of the range here, that started in the beginning of February, we're going to have a big trade potential on the way down. This is definitely the one we want to watch this week. And SMCI, again, I continue to reiterate the point, SMCI is not for me. And the reason why I say this, I trade stocks that have a lot of liquidity. AMD, Tesla, NVIDIA, right? Amazon, Apple, Meta, maybe Meta's not a great example, there's still a lot of liquidity, right? SMCI for me trades $2 spreads, hundreds share lots. Basically, I don't know how the hell I'm going to get a position on this thing. And by the way, if I'm wrong, I'm down 10 points. Not really my cup of joe. Again, I'm turning 15 June, I'm not turning 15. However, for all you junkies out there, and again, and I don't mind missing a setup on SMCI because I can make up for it in another area in the tech space. Maybe it won't be as sexy as a hundred point move, but I don't need a hundred point move to get a lot of meat on the ball. SMCI had a shelf registration this week, it's had an incredible run, and it's setting up very, very tight. You see how the, forget about the top of the channel here. You see how it held the 10-day moving average, that's the green line here. Do you guys remember the last time it lost the 10-day moving average? It lost the 10-day moving average, the stock went from 690 all the way, excuse me, it lost, it went from 800 all the way down to 692 while it's setting up exactly the same way, right? Again, this is a very big copycat business stocks to have a very short memory. Watch SMCI this week, especially if it correlates with, what was the number I said on the SMHs. If it correlates on the 206 pole on the SMHs, guys, watch SMCI. If it loses the 10-day moving average, you've got like 150 points on the next support. So again, for all you guys who are trading, especially on the option side, keep an eye on this thing, but it has to lose the 10-day moving average for this trade to potentially work. So really, really big potential there. So we're kind of set up, you know, we're set up for both the upside, the downside this week. The key is now, stay patient, don't guess, don't anticipate, just let it play out and let it work. So let's talk about the pivots from Friday. First of all, if you guys remember Wednesday's broadcast, I turned around and said, we have to wait for pullbacks. We have to wait for pullbacks. Wait for pullbacks. Everything's up like 300 points. We had a crazy good, good move on the video on Friday. Number one, this was, you know, this was a sneaky pivot. I'll talk about the sneaky pivot in a second. So this is the Note Friday. This is the Note Friday pre-market. Congratulations to everyone that was holding. I held the runner overnight. Excuse me. I sold it right before the 800 push the previous night around the 795s area. Not sure we could have played it in the video better from the previous day. First, we caught a massive washout into the 740s that exploded back into the 780s. And then there was an unbelievable pivot, a 778 sneaky pivot. Again, if you watch the PS60 workshops, you kind of know what that is. If you want to keep a runner, God bless. Again, here is the sneaky pivot. Even if you didn't catch the washout, here is the sneaky pivot. 778 needs to build to reclaim the previous candle. And the damn thing went to 825. So just a phenomenal move. Absolutely phenomenal move. Friday, there was two areas of interest on meta. 490 needs to build. 490 went to 494 pretty quickly. I unfortunately missed. It just went too fast. The liquidity got dried up really quickly. I missed the 490 to 494. I caught the remount, the bounce from 491 into the 493s before the market got pulled. AMD came close to confirming. Never did. Tesla came close to confirming. Never did. PHAT, nice little move here. For all you guys who traded, $11 stock rejected three times needs to build. Here was PHAT. Went from like 11 to 1140s. Nothing crazy. But again, is that a good thing? I don't know. Not really my thing. And then you had Dock U waiting for a flush that didn't come. Square had a nice pre-market move. What if I get dollar and change? Nothing crazy. Again, had good earnings. Rivian, day two got destroyed. Rivian, 11 if it builds below can flush. Here was Rivian. Again, Rivian double downgrade on Friday. Lost the 11. Went all the way down to 10. Really nice move there. Congratulations what you guys got there. Amazon, again, continues to act really, really well. Only went up about 30 cents, 40 cents or so. Didn't give us a second entry. But again, acts really, really well. This was big. Congratulations for you guys who caught CVNA. Not really my thing, but 7150 rejected three times needs to build. Here is CVNA. Here was a 60 minute view. Here was a 60 minute view. Rejected 7150, 7150. Took out the 7150, went to 76 and change before it got pulled. Great, great move there as well. There was one sneaky pivot. Here it is. Sneaky pivot on square 8023. Rejected a supply, needs to reclaim for an afternoon push. Nice push. Here's a sneaky pivot on square right over here. See this here here? 8023. 8023 was supply. It got above 8023 and put up a $2 move before the market got pulled. Really good trading week. Nvidia obviously was the star. But overall, great action. Great, great action for all you guys who are brand new to us. And so exactly what we've been doing for the last couple of weeks. Again, you see, we don't need to go to the market. We just need a range, whether it's to the upside and to the downside. And that's the name of the game. Guys, God bless everybody. Stay blessed. Stay healthy with God's help. I'll see you all on Monday. Take care.