 What is up everybody? Welcome to Thursday night football and the Fando fantasy Q&A I am your host Brandon Gadoula. I'm the managing editor at number fire calm you can find all my content over there, but We've got a great game from a DFS standpoint for tonight between the Steelers and the Vikings. It is a game with low upside quarterbacks With some historical optimal trends based on similar like comparable games where Quarterbacks aren't really the best MVP. I mean, they're still the best MVP bets based on probability, but we get we get a lot of running backs in Optimal lineups in games with these sort of low to middling totals tight ish spreads. So But you know, that's gonna put on the radar not to Harris talk about what's going on with the Vikings running backs for tonight. So welcome on in settling get those questions ready because this is a Q&A you can get your questions in on You tube twitch Facebook Twitter for tonight I know we're always trying to focus on this single game slate for Thursday talk about DFS strategy Look at some historical optimal lineups match ups Slate simulations, but I always get a bunch of start sit questions Which I will get to but I would say Go to number fire calm check out my start sit column It shows basically every relevant player and their odds of hitting certain thresholds For QBs and tight ends. It's top 12 weeks for running backs and receivers The odds that they finish is the top 24 player and it gives you a better idea of how certain players compare how, you know, how How big a gap is between? Player a and player B. So check that out. But again, I can run some simulation stuff for start sits but I'm here to focus on This Steelers of Vikings game. So as always, I'm gonna go over some high level stuff about this game Get those questions in and then I'll catch back up After I go through the top-down view for tonight. So again Steelers at the Vikings It's gonna be in a dome 44 and a half point total Steelers three and a half point road underdogs here money line One minus 180 for the Vikings for the Steelers plus one at 52 The main injury news that we have for tonight is that it does sound like Dalvin cook is going to play barring a setback Which is a little bit telling it's not that if he feels good, he will play it's he's on track to play barring a pregame warm-up setback so Given that information, I think that we do have to proceed as if Dalvin cook will be in the usual Dalvin cook role Maybe scale that back a little bit, but it does make Alexander Madison a little bit harder to justify both in season long But also in DFS for tonight and then Chase Claypool is expected to play. He's cleared with his toe injury. So those are the skill level injuries that I think are very important to go over And then I will show you guys some match-up information some historical optimal lineups and then I'll get into those questions for tonight and for this weekend so the Vikings here Are pretty decent against the pass according to some number of fire metrics including passing that expected points per drop back allowed And passing success rate their top 12 in both of those stats If you adjust their fantasy performance allowed to quarterbacks based on individual quarterbacks that they faced They're a little bit weaker 21st in terms of fantasy points allowed per drop back to opposing quarterbacks We get the inverse here with the Steelers defense bottom, you know outside the top 20 in passing that expected points per drop back and success rate allowed a little bit tougher with some opponent adjustments in terms of Adjusted fantasy points per drop back now Yeah, one one team is 13th and adjusted fandal points per drop back allowed the other 21st But it's pretty small gap all things considered. I know this adds up, you know over a full game of drop backs But it's just a good reminder of why I really put stock into outlier match-ups. So You know bottom five bottom six top five top six everything else in general across every stat you look at Teams are pretty close to the league average of the league media and whatever you're looking at there Speaking of outliers though. We have a pretty weak rough rush defense from the Vikings In terms of net expected points per carry allowed and success rate allowed again pretty good on a per carry basis in terms of player level adjustments But generally when we have we have those outliers that means that they're kind of having some touchdown luck with what they're allowing For the Steelers, you know sub par across the board there And then as far as the past catching goes we have You know top half but not outlier numbers against running backs allowed to running backs here Some pretty solid receiver match-ups and some pretty tough Tight-end match-ups. So I think that kind of tells us a little bit here where we could get some You know rushing potential from the backs in this game specifically, Najee Harris, Dalvin Cook The receivers in a pretty good spot match-up wise One thing that could really lead to this game being a bit ugly though Is Pittsburgh's pace they have really slowed things down. They've been slow most of the season on they are 28th in Context adjusted pace a non-garbage time pace This looks at their pre snap win probability between when they're whenever the pre snap win probability was between 20 and 80 percent So just sort of out, you know thrown out the outlier plays wherever they're trailing up by a lot or ahead by a lot They like to slow things down the Vikings though top ten in pace And both teams make make up for you know about league average are a little bit better in terms of pass rate Now as far as these optimal line-ups in comparable games, I think this is really key But keeping in mind that we have low upside quarterbacks here So I think this could be even skewed a little bit heavier to to the other positions But across this the single game optimal line-ups that I have in my database up to this point The quarterback position is made up 47 percent of optimal MVPs in this split So on this split I'm looking at 84 games with the spread of one and a half to five and a half and a total of 42 and a half to 46 and a half quarterbacks still the most likely To be the MVP at about 42 percent However, that's a drop of about five three About five points from the overall split average and for running back. We see over a ten point boost You know that kind of makes sense, right? These are not super high totals and the way that quarterbacks accrue huge games is with multiple multiple touchdowns lots of yardage Running backs though can get there on you know Heavy yardage within tight games where you know It's a back-and-forth game Stud running backs are involved on the ground and through the air and then with you know solid But relatively low totals all things considered one touchdown can be enough to set them apart receivers bumped down a little bit but Within this matchup again, we have Ben Roffusberger Kirk cousins Haven't really flashed a ton of high-end upside for the season I think we could expect this to bump down even a little bit more and I'll show you guys my sims whenever I get some questions Which could speak to the probability that these quarterbacks actually do finish as the MVP for tonight one thing that was surprising digging back through comparable games is that the It's actually more likely that the underdog produces the optimal MVP About 54% of the time compared to 41% in the overall split across all the games And then we just get more of a mix here Pretty sure last week. We had the the favored quarterback about 40 40% likely To finish as the MVP. We don't get any specific position split quite that high this week, so I think that that speaks to this type of game, but also these two teams in general kind of Fit that and then quickly here Not a bad night for kickers according to comparable optimal line-ups about 41% of line-ups similar to this Have had at least one kicker in a lineup compared to 34% in the overall split Okay, so that should kind of get you guys on the same pages to you know How I'm viewing this game from that high-level approach and I'll dig in to these Questions starting with a question from Grimfan on YouTube any love for Ray Ray McLeod and James Washington Or just go straight to KJ Osborne. Okay This is a good time then to bring up the simulation results These are based on number of fires median projections and some range of outcomes that I call dynamic they account for things like a dot receiving work for Running backs and then I simulate things out 10,000 times and see what what's most likely to happen Of course, all it takes is one iteration for You know in the Sims to produce it an optimal lineup But we want to see how likely certain things are to happen. So specifically with Ray Ray McLeod James Washington. I'm probably Look, I mean it's a single game slate Virtually everyone is in play in a single game slate, especially with anyone with some path to production but Ray Ray McLeod even at 6,500 a little bit hard to justify from that standpoint with Chase Claypool being cleared to play and then With James Washington seven thousand He's actually a little projected a little bit lower by number fire And so neither of these guys have more than a point six percent chance to finish is a top five score now If you you know think about this, they don't need to be a top five score They're gonna be a top six top seven top eight score still make an optimal lineup, but for you to say that you're basically saying in this case either been an office burger is Effectively producing an MVP output, which we haven't really seen and he's supporting multiple past catchers or This game is basically Dauv, Najee, Justin Jefferson And like Deontay and they all go off and the only way that you can really get up to all four of them Is with the punt level play? I would say that I'm probably not there as building blocks just because of Chase Claypool being back Pat Fry moves sort of been the de facto Number three for them. So I'm probably not going to say that they're building blocks But I definitely don't think that they're bad plays especially If you are playing one of those two angles that I just laid out and you really need the salary as for KJ Osborne much better median projection 6.9 here Not really likely as an MVP candidate We shouldn't surprise this but 10% likely to finish inside the top five in Fando points at 8,000 He's been their wide receiver three for the whole season his snap rate really dipped The past few games but without him feeling out. We did see his snap rate his route rate climb back up So I think that With KJ Osborne being such a better play, I don't think he'll be prohibitively popular in terms of roster rates either So I would say For the most part go to KJ Osborne unless you're building tons of lineups Grim fan asking any defenses worth streaming tonight So I'll pop over here. I Don't really look at streaming defenses too much but Um Even I don't know even with Even with like the lowest total you kind of actually want totals to be a little bit higher You want more passing you want up tempo as far as Your defenses go neither defense seems to be rating out particularly well Pittsburgh down here at five and a half Minnesota six and a half you could probably do a little bit better Um So I'm not really anticipating chasing either of these defenses even where I need a defense in my season-long leagues Question from Zachary on Facebook Freeman or Foreman Okay, so Do you want to foreman Devonte Freeman? I can run this one through the start sits simulator that I have I'll leave it at half because I don't know I will say I'm absolutely gonna say Devonte Freeman regardless as to what this Spits out here Freeman last week played 68% of the snaps For Baltimore a little bit closer than I thought much higher implied team total for Tennessee but Freeman played 68% of snaps Had about a 55% route rate. It's one of the best workloads that a Raven's running back a scene in a long time I'm pretty sure I tweeted this out in the offseason, but since 2016. I think there's been one Running back for Baltimore who's actually eclipsed a 70% snap rate in a single game. He was Buck Allen like four years ago They're always gonna be a bit capped within his offense Do you have to be foreman coming off of a 50% snap rate game with Dantro Hillier? But Jeremy McNichols seems likely to return. I don't know what that's gonna do to the workload So Freeman is being treated as the RB one Foreman could be the RB one. He could also be the RB three So I'm gonna go pretty easily with Devonte Freeman in that matchup a question from John Hollywood Brown or OBJ Okay, I'll run this one through there, too I'm gonna lean Marquis Brown though. I Should probably have many years Hollywood though because it's one of the best One of the best monikers in In all of football So, yeah, again that low total for the Ravens this week 19 and a half just the 41 point Overunder but Otto Beckham did kind of bail himself out. He had two catches I think 20 heat yards last week and a touchdown the role wasn't quite as strong You know, he was banged up leading into that week, but you know Marquis Brown has been this team's wide receiver one He's really been getting elevated treatment hasn't the production hasn't been there because Lamar has been sub par But I wouldn't expect that to stick. I'm gonna go with Marquis Brown here in that matchup for week 14 Tyler's asking flex spot non PPR standard league. Okay Don't get a whole lot of those The spreadsheet's not even sure how to react to that I guess hopefully doesn't crash But a flex button on PBR Pollard earths or golly day so Pollard is I Don't know what his status will be. That's a tough one if he doesn't play a Brain doesn't really think in terms of standard, but I would probably go Regardless of okay, so if Pollard plays I'd go Pollard because his workload should be there Even if he's not a hundred percent that Matt that game is a pretty promising one overall if he doesn't go I'm gonna go with Zach urge for sheer touchdown equity because his his His teams imply team total What's that ten point two five points better than the Giants with Mike presumably Mike Lennon. That's kind of the reports I've been seeing I Think that it's pretty easily Zach urge for that touchdown equity If Tony Pollard doesn't play Okay, D Westbrook worth a look tonight. I can pull that up. He's gonna rate out poorly four and a half points as a median So, let me look at let me switch over to my stat sheet here. What did what exactly did he do last week? With feeling Very limited D. D About 44% of snaps 61% of the routes just the two targets negative two yards 11 year at 8 not bad one downfield target again, I think that this could work. I really think that with the We don't really see a lot of non quarterback lineups be optimals I Kind of think that you could have that happen this week where tonight I should say not this week because the quarterbacks are so low upside so Westbrook doesn't really stand out but if you play like one one Swipe it like a Westbrook Or the the Steelers guys because you're building around like you want to jam in Najee Dalvin Deontay and or Justin Jefferson. I don't know what that salary would leave you with exactly I can actually check that out. I should do that So let's see here, let's go Najee Jefferson Deontay D'alve and it's a pretty hot start. I think that those are the types of lineups where I'd be most inclined To roll the dice with the DD or Ray Ray McLeod or James Washington Kind of just kind of just kind of shorting the quarterbacks because they just don't rate out as high upside and speaking of that Their top score odds. Let me sort this by top score odds Najee Dalvin leading above Cousins Jefferson Ben Roth is burgers that I love I don't I don't think I've done a show yet Where a quarterback said such low odds to finish as the top score and this comes from Ben's low upside performances all season but also the stud workloads for guys like Najee Dalvin Jefferson, so I really think that there's a case to be made for I know it wasn't high on like Ray Ray McLeod James Washington or really DD Westbrook But I mean you can you can do that and you can eat some salad You can leave some salad on the table and just sort of bet against the quarterbacks tonight if you want But frankly outside of KJ Osborne, none of the value receivers have solid cases for me to sit here and kind of build them up for tonight Question from Paul Hilliard or Freeman Yeah, so that's gonna be this similar case I just laid out with Beyonce foreman with Jeremy McNichol is probably coming back this week It's gonna be Freeman for me for I really like Devonte Freeman I think that he's in play on the full slate than the main slate at 6300 on Fandall I I don't really play running backs with so many question marks But if he's gonna get RB one treatment sort of light feature back treatment Devonte Freeman for me very much the play there Paul's also asking Madison or cook. So again, this goes back to the The news that Dalvin cook is going to play barring a setback. So it sounds really likely that he is Fine, you know as fine as you can be after that the shoulder injury that he had And that he's gonna play as much as he can really play With that I would have a hard time seeing Dalvin cook with these reports Being the the the secondary option behind Alexander Madison So I think I would go down and cook based on how these reports are making this situation sound a question from Bucks I start KJ Osborne or Keenan Allen Or KJ Osborne or James Connor So I don't know if it's an all three or two different Leagues Keenan Allen as much as I want to say just play Keenan Allen We're not gonna know obviously by tonight if he's going to play it sounds like he's probably not going to play this weekend because of COVID protocols I think KJ Osborne is totally viable though. I can run him through Changes at least a half It's not gonna look too pretty Next to Keenan if he's even projected so Keenan's Keenan's partially projected and then who else was it James Connor? So Keenan's partially projected because of the protocols, but I don't think I'll play I'm KJ Osborne though Honestly, not that bad of a play on you know, if you're if you're really looking for a Plug-and-play option. So again, I'm not a hundred percent sure if you're asking which of the three But I would definitely rank them Connor Osborne Keenan just because it sounds like Keenan's so unlikely to play Okay Okay, Grimm fans asking Jalen Geithner Josh Palmer. I talked about this in pretty pretty much in detail I did a trend on the Chargers offense on today's heat check podcast Which I recommend everyone checks out the the podcast they do with my co-host Jim Sonnis. We go over the main slate I did a trend on the Chargers Which is gonna be the Chargers playing from ahead because they're heavily favored against the Giants But then it morphed into the Chargers potentially without Keenan Allen most likely with Mike Williams from the vibe I'm getting but one thing that to really be optimistic about is that Justin Herbert has been Good with Keenan Allen off the field. He's also been good with Mike Williams off the field So it's a good spot if I have to pick one though, I think I'm just gonna go Guyton I know he has the issue of not a not a great target per route number Compared to Palmer, but Guyton's been their third option for like the whole season It just stands the reason that if anyone's gonna play, you know, a hundred percent of snaps outside of Mike Williams again Assuming he's healthy. It's gonna be Guyton. He's gonna be out there most likely on the two receiver set So I would just lean with Guyton there between the two question from Shane Van Jefferson or Russell Gage Osborne or Julio Jones in a PPR. I don't know if it's all four or if it's a you know But I'll rank them all hopefully that'll help and I'll run through the Sims as well just to get some sort of Vibe check here. So van Beach KJ and Julio, I kind of like Julio here. Yeah, I kind of assumed that Julio would right out in tops there We haven't seen him yet play without AJ Brown But if he's healthy enough to play in this matchup, I think that you kind of just lean with Julio primarily Especially over Osborne again, I don't know if it's a an all four or like, you know, sort of a 2v2 But between Van and Gage, I'm gonna go with Van instead of Gage despite what the projections here have to say Like the like the offense more Don't love the matchup for Gage. So to rank them I'd say Julio Van Gage Osborne if it's Van versus Gage, it's gonna be Van for me. And if it's Osborne versus Julio, it's gonna be Julio for me question from Joe should I start cook? So I mentioned this a few times. I feel pretty optimistic with Alvin cook We will know if he's going to play Early like if he if we get news that he sits then you just remove him and you don't have to worry about it It's not like it's a Sunday thing And the reports are that he's expected to play barring that setback. So it sounds optimistic So I feel pretty good with Alvin cook's workload For for tonight, sorry seeing Dalvin or Jared and a much Not sure what that means So she she clarified pick one sorry yet, then I'd go wholly over in this four-person matchup. No worries At all, but sometimes it's hard to to read these sometimes and really kind of think things through so I just didn't know if is that 2v2 and Sometimes I get those Grimfans asking Higgins or shepherd To your sterling. Thanks for that although, I don't know There's not another shepherd and to me, there's only one Higgins anyway, and it's always tea But again, I don't care what this says. I'm gonna go with tea Higgins, but I might as well throw these up here But tea Higgins in games that he has played and Jamar Chase has played and Chase has played in all of them T Higgins has a higher target share incrementally Compared to Jamar Chase, which is just fascinating, but tea Higgins has also been just pretty good overall He's not been as good as Jamar Chase, obviously But things have been leveled out. Higgins was a little bit banged up. Seems like he's back at full health now and he has just been Kind of the 1a Realistically the 1b in this offense. I know burrows hand is a bit of an issue But he seemed like he from the quotes that I saw he said he had like no issue going under center That he didn't really foresee a situation where he wasn't going to play T Higgins also, yeah, I know we want that downfield work But you know the 49ers their mid-level to a little bit weak against the downfield pass They're 18th and passing a dot allowed 20 second in yards per target allowed on Downfield passes so they're beatable downfield but T Higgins also can get some some Receptions some targets closer to the line of scrimmage if that's what it takes for them to move the ball I feel pretty good with that one For this week Question from Larry van Jefferson or Darnell Mooney. That's a good one. I haven't thought about Haven't thought about He bears because of their status not on you know Sunday night like not on the main slate or Thursday Which is what I focused on primarily up to this point on Thursday the sim see it really close That's for PPR. I'll set it to half. Just be a little bit safer here Um That that keeps it a little bit closer. So this one is like why I like simulating stuff I mean, I just like simulating stuff anyway, but it's a it's a half point difference So if you're looking at projections, you're gonna say, okay, Darnell Mooney If you're looking at range of outcomes and the odds of these guys get to 15 points about the same Mooney's 20 point odds, you know, definitely higher But does they get to 10 really not that different and again, we're looking at sub 50% there um Anyway, so like, you know, and then it comes down to Offensive expectations the implied team total for the Rams 24.25 for the Bears 15.75 I know that the Sims slightly prefer Darnell Mooney that range of outcomes slightly prefer him But I'm gonna have a hard time really clicking in Darnell over van based on such a big gap an offensive expectations It'd be a little bit different too If that implied team total wasn't 15.75 That's crazy. That's crazy low That might actually be one of the that might be the lowest of the season don't quote me on that, but that's I'm gonna go van I know I'm kind of Stuck on this one, but I'm gonna go van I think it's close enough Especially with the probabilities being relatively close overall a question from Jerry Brady or Herbert Brady for me I'm a little bit close to time here keep this one I won't simulate this stuff, but Herbert just might be without he's likely gonna be without Keenan Allen Mike Williams might not be a hundred percent But you know, he might be he might be feeling fine. I don't know but with he's not gonna be practicing all week With her with that happening. I'm fine Going Brady over Herbert Brady's Averaging I think 324 yards against top four adjusted past defenses this season His time to throw is better against high high pressure teams than it is against like non like teams outside the top 10 They really figure things out. So I'm gonna go Brady there Dalvin or Jared Whistler when he just said cook. Okay, is Debo go for Sunday. I'm not sure Larry I Really don't know. I would kind of presume that he isn't but I think we can wait and see there Because we don't You know, if Debo if Debo's healthy, you're gonna play him if he's not then we just go somewhere else Your fan is asking should I pick up Devonte Smith? Depends on who you drop but I think Devonte Smith still primed for a You know solid end of the season even though that the Eagles aren't throwing a lot his market shares are phenomenal Did you sing Justin Fields starting for the Bears? Yeah, talked about this on the heat check Last week, I guess. Yeah There is not surprising, but they're super run heavy They're faster, but they're super run heavy with Justin Fields That's another reason why they're implying team totals low because Justin Fields has been not particularly great So yeah, Van over Mooney and there and then final question for the week PPR flex KJ Osborne or Melvin Gordon. That's really tough because it would be Melvin. I Don't know if he's gonna play it something he's gonna play I would most likely assume that he's gonna play so I would I would just play it safe And hold off for Melvin For Sunday, that's gonna do it for today's show. Thank you for tuning in. Thank you for all the questions I know we didn't really go over this the Sims too much about the Thursday night slate But again, thanks for the questions. It always makes it a lot easier to spend this half hour It's always fun to go through some Sims I know that there's a lot of uncertainty around this weekend with the question marks around some injuries You just gotta stay tuned to the news. That's it's just more and more the case the later on we get Into the season big. Thank you to Joy Affleck for producing the video side getting your questions featured on the screen It's gonna do it for for me for the week best of luck tonight best of luck this weekend