 Hi guys, good morning. It is October 10th, just going to hit a clock here in London. You can see from picture on my right hand side, it's all going to be about, or potentially all going to be about, the trade talks today in Washington. The two-day, or is it a two-day talk between President Trump and Xi. Just before we go into a bit of detail on that, it's worth bringing up the charts and this morning we've had some decent moves already, not to go into detail on stocks just yet. You can see how choppy they were overnight, but Euro's just coming to an interesting level and worth bringing this in before we go through any points on that. We're just coming to the top end of this trend line, really going back here to, well if we start it on here on the 13th of August, so here looking at a 240 minute chart, then the next high that we had post ECB, if you remember this, the full reversal which made a new low of the year to then go higher up to where we made a high for the 13th. We're now back testing that point. We talked about this resistance level in the briefing for the last few sessions. You can just see here, always struggle to get above. We're now above there, we're testing this trend line, up 36 ticks on the day in the session already. It's a worth keeping a close watch on what happens there and actually just to, I was looking at the trading live chat and Alex, I hope you don't mind me talking through part of your trade here, just on the Euro breaking that high, you can see or you may just be able to see the entry point here to go along and fading in up towards that top end of the trend line and here I imagine this line here is the high that we had from last week as well. So great trade, waiting for that breakout to get in part on the aggressive, I guess maybe some was waiting for the classic or not, but great trade and the Euro strong this morning. So we can see here, it's just testing that trend line. I'd be really waiting to see can we get a confirmed close above there at the moment. It's just testing for now. Also, I mean, if we, before we go on to today's headlines and overnight to an extent, I guess it's worth talking about what a day yesterday was, especially considering it was a data list day other than the oil inventories at half free. We also came in in the morning and we had this headline. Let me just drag this into picture. I've got a, let me just bring this in one second, bear with me. Have it drawn up on paint, of course. We had the headline in the morning. New EU ready to make a major concession and consent by allowing a double majority in Northern Ireland assembly to leave new Irish backs up after as yet unspecified number of years. This saw the pound strengthen as you can see breaking above its pivot, which had been good resistance. However, that did get retracted or denied later on and price came down. And of course yesterday as well, we'd have the big drama between Colleen Rooney and Rebecca Vardy, which I'm sure everyone was interested in. That was a pretty good one, a pretty good spat, shall we say, over Twitter. However, you know, it got a bit more serious overnight. And I remember coming in through the door yesterday and I had football training last night and I can never sleep after football training. I think it's the adrenaline still in my body and I put Twitter up on my phone in bed and here I'm really sounding like Anthony now, checking Twitter in bed and it was all kicking off. And so for an hour or so I was just literally refreshing my feed and having a look at the charts to see what was going on. You can see stocks were really topsy-turvy, pushing to the downside quite aggressively on the futures open before reversing back and literally a full reversal by, obviously I wasn't awake at this time, thank God, but by 3 a.m. we had full reversed and reasons for this. So just before we actually go through those points, a lot of the comments on Twitter around mid-9, 11.30 were just saying how badly stocks are going to get killed following these comments. We pushed higher on the hopes that there's going to be this great meeting and now at that time you can see here just the big push. So this was here 11.15. This is when I really started checking Twitter around 11.15, 11.20. So we did get a strong move to the downside, but you can see that reversal coming back and this is obviously around 1 and then a push higher to 3 o'clock and since then, no real move, no real move. A 10-point zone if you like. Some of those comments that did come through, so overnight we had the South China Morning Post reported that deputies had made no progress in talks before the principal negotiations, so for today. The paper said Premier Li would also cut the schedule talk short by a day. So this really helped ignite the push lower, that talk to literally just going to be a one-day home early on Friday and that was it. And then Bloomberg and other media reported that there was no change in the schedule with talks set to continue Friday. So from a trade opportunity, maybe any clarification or confirmation should we say that there isn't going to be a Friday talk. We already know we're going to see some downside for that, so that's a little one to keep on the back burner there as well. Fox Business reported anew that talks would be one day as well, so if we can get any confirmation of all of this, then expect some downside to come in. One of the positive points that helped rally us or take us back to where we were, Bloomberg saying the White House is looking to roll out a previously agreed currency pact with China as part of an early harvest deal that could also see tariff increase next week suspended. So you scratch our back, we scratch yours and looking for some currency stabilisation for the dollar you want and also therefore the US scrapping some of that tariff increase for next week. This is a positive, but we are exactly where we were on the open last night pretty much. New York Times saying that Trump administration would soon issue licences to US companies to supply nonsensitive goods to Hawaii, so another good one there, and the Financial Times saying the US is weighing options to crack down on shipments or contraband goods from China, so slightly negative on that, but overall all things considered, back to where we were. Let's have a quick look at the other reactions that we saw, gold as you'd expect on the one-day talks and on the sort of the futures open, if you like, pushing higher, pushing higher by 15-20, snap back on the more positive and exactly where we are trading. So it looks like it's going to be a pretty interesting day, not to even go through the data yet, the data calendar actually looking like it should be a pretty good one, but certainly these comments are looking to come out quite often you'd imagine now and especially as once Trump starts waking up, although he was tweeting two hours ago, so a late one for the Donald. Euro, of course, pushing on here, a couple of comments this morning or headlines saying that the Euro is pushing higher because of the trade talks and of course that link between the Euro and the Chinese Yuan effectively the dollar index, but on the Chinese side the Euro is a large weighting of that, so really positive put moves to the upside for trade talks, you can also get the Euro pushing on and one to keep an eye on, so if it was to go negative there may be this trend line on that 240, you can see it looks like such a good opportunity to sell. The dollar index is, as you could imagine here, slightly weak already down a quarter percent, quick look over at the pounds, you can see at the time, the Euro push, we did just get above that pivot, relatively important resistance zone yesterday, just where we found almost a top today, so again one to keep a watch on 12258, the higher the day on the futures or previous higher the days as a potential support, and as usual with these moves I always like to have trend lines on from those lows, which you can see not that respected but potentially later on maybe something to have on as well. With this week of dollar gold is just trying to get back above the pivot, so just putting this on to a five minute chart, you can see worth having on even just a little trend like this, you can see one, two, three, four, five tests of that, if we can get a further pushing the dollar to the weakness, so you're a dollar higher, gold you'd expect to break through this resistance trend line as well, so one to have marked up on the charts for the future, so those talks taking place today really going to be the main driver for equities you would imagine, we do have US CPI and we'll come on to the Fed for minutes in a second, there's some of the reasoning behind the majority wanting that cut was to do with the previous CPI number missing expectations, so it will be quite an important reading but with the trade talks today and potentially tomorrow that's really going to be the main driver of things, so I like on Bloomberg here they always do sort of go through the key events coming up for the week and the day and things to look out for and obviously we do have the ECB minutes to come as well and then the inflation numbers on Thursday I would still say there's some other important things to come but certainly from a Euro dollar related market, it's going to be all about the trade talks, the dollar and the Euro side of things, we've got the ECB minutes and then those inflation numbers on Thursday so that will really determine where we finish the market or not, moving on to the FOMC minutes a good tweet here in just clarification really of those minutes last night, very limited reaction as usual, as usually is the case here so this tweet here is from Michael Brown many cited inflation and economic risk management and justifying rate cut, debate emerging a winter and policy easing, officials generally more concerned about risks relating to trade and global economy, wherever you heard this one before, every single central bank meeting it seems, labour market and overall economy readings are strong, although I did see an interesting tweet from someone yesterday saying the unemployment figures in US are skewed and are fake, let's not talk about their GDP readings I guess, also continued a couple of policy makers said rate cut may be too much insurance, others saying factors keeping rates steady, clear a picture emerging a weakness in investment as well interesting remark, several favoured keeping rates unchanged may make further easing more difficult, the next meeting the next favoured meeting on October the 30th so one to just under three weeks we'll be doing that live on YouTube as well covering it, the day later Draghi is leaving the day after that is non-farm payroll so that week should be pretty key and also actually I was going to talk about this later but considering we're talking about that week there of course October the 31st isn't just Draghi's leaving do, it's also the current date for when we will leave with a deal or no deal, I haven't got my phone on me but I got a text from someone and I'm not going to name names to put them in it and I'm not going to say who sent them the text actually it's an email but they may or may not have had lunch with Stephen Barkley yesterday and he was just confirming that they would be leaving on the October the 31st with or without a deal, they think the press have looked into the consequences of a no deal too harshly and in fact they are getting off the trade deals every single day of course he would have to say this as well, he's not just going to tell anyone you know what actually we're really worried we have no idea what's going on and we're getting no trade deals but yeah worth just looking into that, just seeing a couple of comments come through now China Foreign Ministry, China the applause US smearing China on protects or religion and rights a couple of comments coming through the pound actually just coming under a bit of weakness but I did mention that it's a pretty key resistance level from yesterday so it seems more technical there and Euro just having a slight bounce back towards those highs on the subject of also I wasn't on the chart so I was just talking about the pound resistance level from yesterday and the Euro on that trend line as well so it seems a bit more technical than anything there is well to have marked up, worth having a look while we're talking about the pound and whether you want to believe those Stephen Barkley comments or not is up to you if they're that confident they're going to leave on the 31st of October without a deal then yes there would have to be some more downside priced into the pound but ultimately six months time I see as higher than where we are now to be honest so today we have UK PM Johnson meeting with Baraka, the Irish PM around mid day UK time which you know the few times they have met has nothing really happened has it has been just been shot down just like most times he speaks to people in charge within Europe so not expecting too much in the way of positivity from that a couple of headlines overnight from the times and confirmed in the sun has bring this article in Brexit latest no extension without new referendum or election the EU insists and then following on from that Corbyn is willing to grant Johnson a general election on November the 26th if Brexit is delayed so I did a I did a tweet a couple of four days ago on if there was a general election and it was confirmed is the pound a buy or a sell holding trade for at least couple of weeks so you know more just going with what is your general view on the the medium term direction of the pound and 52% of course 5248 was the result but 52% saying buy 5248 saying sell and it really is a tricky one going through that because I guess on the the buy side you're getting well if conservatives and also Stephen Barkley was saying to this person they really do believe they would clean up in a general election my view is I think they would as well and so on the general election side of things you've got positive idea that they're going to have more sway more opportunity to get a deal through parliament last person to say that of course was Theresa May in 2017 and that didn't end too well but this could be seen as a positive but also on the flip side if they're going to be more hawkish and you know even favouring a no deal or whatever then that's kind of got to be a negative as well and you flip it around to the other side and you know if Labour were to get through or the Lib Dems were to provide the shock of the century and you know these are going down the route of more remain than the pound has to as well so I think you know that finished 4 votes or 2 votes either way it would have been 50-50 and I think that's almost fair enough to be honest looking at that but today mid-date you've got Johnson Veracca meeting one to to keep an eye out on as well and these talks of a general election as well to come through November the 26th the rumoured date there as well hang on election November the 26th elections are always on the Thursday so I don't quite know why they've said that's a Tuesday interesting interesting we'll look into that data calendar wise you can see yesterday was obviously you know incredibly quiet here there was just literally hardly anything out it was just that that crude oil number let me just bring in the today's calendar one second just open that up for the 10th of October here we go Thursday so yeah coming into the morning actually the morning is a pretty good one you've got GDP out of the UK as we know not expecting too much in the way of movement from these UK numbers with the Brexit still the main driver ECB minutes at half 12 we're not expecting too much from that and then we get into the afternoon we have the US CPI numbers obviously the weekly initial jobless claims as well and we've all got the speakers here Carney at 1020 and then Fed and ECB speakers making up the afternoon post EU as well those inflation numbers you can see here the straight inflation coming at 1.7 a bit of a miss hasn't been at 2% since April that was a miss expected last something to consensus for that was around 1.8 a slight miss on that we're now expecting it to rise again to 1.8 so potentially a bit of dollar strength and it would be a this could really confirm or let's just get the Fed watch to have a look at October this could really sway this quite drastically so at the moment we're at 82.8% priced in for a cut in October I saw Anthony on his Instagram did a poll recently saying how many are expected this year and the majority from what I saw anywhere getting to confirm we're saying they expect two and at the moment you can see 82.8% but if we were to have a really strong inflation number if you've got a member citing their reasoning behind the cut in September because of a poor inflation number well if you get a good one that 82% isn't going to be 82% much longer and it will come down and get closer to that 50 so quite a good potential opportunity there of a good number as well just having a look actually at that dollar again it's just having a further leg down on the Dixie which means obviously the euro is now back above that trend line can we get that confirmation push in terms of resistance levels above where we're trading we've got quite a few highs on the 25th that are one 1090 so another 30 ticks to the upside I think that's not out the question to be honest the euro has obviously been such a small mover all year a big day here and there but even so this looks like it's a massive move but it's only 38 ticks still quite small but a break by that trend line you should see maybe even a bigger as well to come through on that as well just having a quick run through the final bit of that of that Canada there you can just see those speakers are coming through but the main points that I would say to focus on today obviously we have the numbers out of the UK in the morning not expecting too much from that then we go into to midday we've got PM Johnson and America speaking interesting to see what comes of that into the afternoon we've got the US numbers which should be pretty important we've got the two-day talks in Washington is it going to be two-day are there going to be the suspension of tariffs next week all these things will influence where the S&P actually finishes up as well any questions as usual please do let us know obviously be on the mic throughout the day and going through some set ups midday which I'll put on to YouTube or Twitter or something as well but I hope you'll have a good trading date and I'll catch you in the chat