 Thank you. Okay. Good. Then we have our next speaker. That's Jojo Nam Singh and Jojo He's the assistant professor of international development at the International Institute of Social Studies in The Hague Welcome Jojo. You can see him in the screen and this institute is a part of the Erasmus University Rotterdam And Jojo recently was awarded a prestigious grant from the European Research Council for a new research project with the name Green Industrial Policy in the Age of Rare Metals And when we are talking about intersecting inequalities like we just did we also have to talk about colonialism and its heritage extractivism. This is a phenomenon where large amounts of the natural resources of a country are removed or exported with little or no processing taking place at home and something we've seen again just with the presentation with one way as well. Many countries in the global south which supply others with raw materials wish to develop their own capacities to transform these materials into see-mind finished or end products and by building their own industries they may be able to capture a greater part of the value change, earn more money and have better jobs. This is an attractive way out of poverty but it seems not to be happening. Jojo will explain to us if and how metal mining can be a driver of economic development in the global south and he will address a few questions like should the countries with profile Europe with the lithium cobalt and nickel for its transition try to follow the example of China which has successfully captured the whole value chain for so-called rare metals from mining to the production of magnets and electric vehicles. So that's a very very long question Jojo. Very much look forward to hearing your presentation so go ahead. Thank you can you hear me okay so I'm working on I'm running a five-year research program called green industrial policy in the age of rare metals grip arm based at the ISS and the basic premise of this project is that we need to think about how the policies that we implement at the supply side meaning you know at the resource producing countries how these policies interact directly and indirectly from the demand side meaning those who are consuming these minerals. So what I'm going to show you is a broad overview in terms of how rare metals and in particular rare earth elements are very important vital to the transition the green transition to our future green political economy but that these pose fundamental question in terms of how and in what ways you know we can proceed as we promote the green economy. So what I'm going to do is I'll start with a big picture about the green transition what does it look like why do we need to talk about what I call critical raw materials or the rare metals and then the second and the third part I'll talk about what is the evidence that exists in terms of the relationship between mining and economic development and finally I'll talk about what does this all mean for the future transition. So let me start by talking about what we mean by rare metal. So there are two concepts here one is what we call the rare metals which we are also which we also refer to as minor metals these are basically metals that are produced in low amount but we use them in high tech sectors such as the digital sector renewables energy technologies and the list that you see below is the list of elements that are considered as rare metals from gold, beryllium, bismuth, cadmium all the way to vanadium and tungsten all these minerals all these metals are used for different types of high tech advanced manufacturing products or goods so for example some of these elements might be used for electric vehicles like lithium some of them might be used for the production of boron magnets in order to be used for wind turbines but in some other cases they're also used for defense so they're very widely used in small quantities across different sectors of the economy. Now the project that I'm working on is a more specific type of rare metal which is what we call rare earth or REEs so as you can see below here these are 17 different kinds of elements they're chemically similar they share certain characteristics of ferocity superconductivity meaning that they have similar characteristics and they're applied to highly specific industries in this presentation I'll particularly focus on their application to the green technology sector but they can be used in other sectors as well such as petrochemicals they can be used for telecommunications ICTs digital technology etc. Now this is a broad picture of how the value chain of the critical raw materials that I had I showed you a while ago looked like so most of us when we think about the supply chain we often think in terms of you know there's a mineral and then that leads to the sector like renewables defense e-mobile but in fact it goes through several levels of processing and you know there are several sectors in between what we call the processing and alloy sectors and that's what you see in the middle so this could be batteries fuel cells wind PV meaning solar panels ICT drones so what you see on the left is the level of risk that exists these are the level so when we say when we talk about the supply risk we mean two things how accessible are these minerals in terms of exploiting and extracting them and secondly how much available are they so there's two things there and because they're so critical for the different industries we need to make sure that there's access to these minerals now this is what the green transition looks like let's look at it in terms of the different metals that we need you can see from the top electric vehicle will require four times more in terms of the mineral in terms of the actual amount compared to a conventional car but it also means will require more types of metals as we add more technology to them to you know to the car we also need to increase the number of minerals and elements that we have to use to produce them the more complex the technology the more metals we need in order to produce them now this is a scenario this was the recent report by the international energy agency and it basically shows the number of times you know the growth of the selected minerals that we need in order to secure the green transition what this all means basically is that in the next two decades we will be multiplying the amount of metals we need primary metals that we are you know extracting from the ground where do these minerals come from in many places they come from China they come from Latin America they come from Africa and so what this basically tells you is that in order for the green transition to take place a lot of developing countries would need to be paying the cost and so if Europe proceeds you know the whole European Union Green Deal if they proceed towards you know promoting the Green Deal promoting electric vehicles solar panel it means will be externalizing those costs to developing countries this is just a very simple diagram in terms of the different stages of production you can clearly see that as you proceed to the higher technology sectors processing components assembly you also in change you know that you can see the share of countries changing China is the biggest winner here because they're able to increase their share in processing and the production of the final products you can see that only in the section the first section raw materials that's where developing countries are participating in the value chain now this is a simple diagram to say the same thing the main suppliers of these minerals are China Africa in Latin America but now the big difference is traditionally up to I think about the 1990s usually Western technology Western companies dominate the market we're now seeing a shift in which Asian countries are increasing their share as well as the European Union and the US so what we're saying here is that as the value chains in as we move towards the higher technology high value added activities China East Asia participates more in the process and basically Latin America Africa and those primary producing countries remain to be raw materials producer this is not any difference if you look at the history of economic development of developing countries this is the same story that you find they were primary producers they produce coffee cotton sugar in order to promote promote the industries in Western Europe and the US at least in the 19th and the 20th century and so if we are going to do this transition we'll see the same role being played by many developing countries this is an example of how it looks like China because of its emphasis on its industrial policy meaning it wants to domesticate the manufacturing of these products they increase their they're increasing their share of participation in the value added activities and by contrast there's limited value addition in the primary resource sector in Latin America and Africa now why is this the case why is there why is this a big problem the problem is apart from the fact that we're going to outsource these minerals to developing countries historically only few countries were able to achieve mining based development in the 19th century it was only in you know in in the so-called first world countries it's mainly Australia Canada Norway the US which have taken advantage of their mining sector and created manufacturing industries alongside in middle-income countries you broadly have some countries that were able to take advantage precisely because it's more difficult for mining to deliver economic development and these are more of the exception than the rules so there's a lot of econometric studies that have shown this and most studies are basically saying if you increase the export earnings if you increase your reliance on natural resources you are unlikely to produce a diversified export sector you're unlikely to achieve this manufacturing based development model that we've seen in the rest of western Europe why in in in academic debates this is what we call the resource curse basically there are negative effects when you're extremely dependent on natural resources there's the political effect and there's the economic effect the political effect the argument basically is that because you have resources there are many different contending groups in societies that want to to have control over these resources and because of these it leads to political conflict it leads to sometimes political violence or simply unequal redistribution of the wealth that comes from natural resources the economic effect is what they call the Dutch disease effect and yes it comes from the historical experience of the Netherlands in the 1970s so when commodity prices went up in the early 1970s they saw that the manufacturing and agricultural sector of the of the Dutch economy suffered they became uncompetitive that has to do with the effect of of having to rely on these export sector vis-a-vis the other sectors of the economy now in the cases where we saw you know that they they were successful in building mining based development what are the lessons that we can draw the first lesson I think is that there have been significant institutional reforms policy reforms implemented in developing countries to maximize the capture of the mineral wealth and to increase the value added activities in mining now this can take place in two ways it can be through a fiscal compact or through if you know if they're not willing to do that the state would have to impose it but basically forcing taxation special taxes to improve the tax collection efforts of the state in the mining sector so this has always happened and in some cases for example in Latin America this has led to what they call the re-taxation re-nationalization of the sector the second important policy is creating a balance between attracting investment and building productive capacity within the sector what we basically mean by this is that the mining sector needs to create domestic firms without domestic companies that actually produce the minerals we will still see a situation where countries are dependent on technology from the multinational company so this transfer of technology is really important in building sectors around the mining industry so one of the best examples on this is Petrobras who built a niche technology around deep-sea engineering through local content policy through emphasizing the you know the need to build domestic firms within the within the sector and making these firms competitive internationally over the long term now what kind of conditions do we need at the international level you know for this to work so one interesting debate that's happening now is policies that should focus on developing the sector enhancing these productive capacity of the firms one good example that you know that you can find these days is what we call the linkage policy the idea of a linkage policy is you build activities around the mining sector such as services goods you know manufacturing in order to promote the mining sector so in the end you don't only have employment and income coming from the mining sector you also have employment and income from coming from the different sectors connected to mining so this could be you know for example through the the production of equipment in order to support the mining industry or it could also be creating different suppliers in the domestic sector Nigeria is also a good example here Nigeria has been domesticating its supply chain increasing the share of Nigerian companies in the sector because of its high dependence in oil and finally which leads to the you know the point that was being made by our colleagues a while ago on South Africa it's really important to also think about not only about the growth oriented policies but the implementation of social and environmental licenses that need to get you know acquisitions from the mining communities it's many it is often the case there's a lot of studies that shows that social conflicts in mining are often connected to the pressure for redistribution I mean of course there are questions of identity politics and culture but most of the time it's about the redistributive question the mining communities don't get enough and they face and and they absorb the external costs of mining activities there's also a lot of studies that have shown that communities can make better choices if you give them options if they are able to you know between extraction and agriculture they can make a better choice whether they want agriculture or they want mining so I think it's wrong to think that you know all communities will want extraction or that they always will reject extraction I think it's really a balance between these two choices what does this all mean for the future transition it means that aid now because the global value chains are more complicated China is increasing its role you know its influence in the global south these you know there's no straightforward solutions policies in order to make mining more developmental for resource producing countries what this means then is that it's up to developing country governments to come up with long-term visions around how to develop their mining sector one of the most important evidence that we find from among engineering in among engineering literature for example is that every mine is different they have very different requirements so every government must need to think about how they can take advantage of mining in order to promote their own development finally sorry finally I think at a time don't know yeah that's the exact time because we have quite a lot of questions for you so I would be very I think yeah I think the final point is the same point as what our colleagues in South Africa is make are making there's a social equity question there's a social ecological debt that we are facing we need to resolve this the difficulty now is because with the transition we need to tackle both the social equity question around mining and at the same time the equity question that comes out with the green transition so we have to tackle both of them at the same time and that's what makes all of this more complicated thank you thank you so much Jojo