 Let's get over to our man. Mr. Tim orders. We do each of every Thursday at 20 past the hour And don't forget folks you can reach Tim every trading day at odd or D dash oracle or our CLE.com No, odd dash oracle. Yeah dot com Tim or what's going on brother? Well, you know, we were on Tuesday and I showed that SP x tits X-TX TLT ratio. Yes, and and we had Margaret supposed to pull back and Obviously yesterday was a down day and now if you look at chart one, I got another chart That's probably gonna go right back up Okay, so is that is the number one shot the need two out of three? Yes, it's chart one. Okay. Yeah, it's our chart of the VIX Okay, one second. Hold on me this when I do these sometimes. Okay. One second. I got Okay, so one second I get these mixed up I think all at once so the one I want to look at Tim is only I got it. No, I had it right. Yeah, okay I got the VIX. I got it. Yes. Yeah, the VX actually that's that's an hour chart That's okay. I'm kind of looking so I don't think this decline is going to continue You know, it's just that we had a kind of a very sign on Tuesday Anyhow, this is an hour charge. So this is like a short-term charge. It's not like I'm predicting Something, you know, that's gonna rally for the next several months, but it does predict I think it'll rally maybe for the next several days. I think we're probably making a bottom I'll make that case here But you know the the second window down from the top is it is the hourly VIX Okay, and the top window is the RSI for the VIX the bottom window is the Rate of change on a three period And the next window up is a percent volume So anyhow in general When two out of three indicators Hit into bullish cat territory. Yes, they all three of them hit You're looking probably at a short term low in this vicinity Okay, so what what it kind of measures is the velocity of the VIX when that when the VIX really Plumb or rallies really hard, you know That that shows kind of a fear thing. Yes, it's kind of because they call them in a fear gauge So I'm kind of watching that as a fear gauge Suggesting that we had a lot of fear yesterday on yesterday's decline So it's pretty amazing that we're at highs and you just get a little sell-off and you get a lot of fear Isn't it? It's pretty wild. Yeah, you get it. You get a lot of fear and so That's easy a bullish on a short because everybody hit the sell button yesterday Yeah, and so I tried to pick out indicators that you know Get too exuberant to the downside That's a bad that's actually a bullish sign. Yes, so any of it all three of those indicators keep up Got in bullish territory yesterday. So we had three out of three Flip the chart to okay and Charged all this is on the chart to is the SP SPS or SPY that on the daily chart If one volume spikes like 30% or higher compared to the days around it that usually is Exhaustion move I can go back a long time and improve that point But you know the chart gets too messy. So I just the one I wanted to point out We had one back on June 30th I just point that out on the chart. Okay at the bottom window is a volume We had a surge in volume about 30% higher compared to the previous day And be noticed that was a high the market did pull back Over the next it looks like about a week or so Same thing here yesterday's volume jumped at least 30% compared to the previous days That shows exhaustion to the downside. We did gap down today But volume most likely is going to be a lot lighter today than yesterday So I'm thinking that the market is still going to go back up to the view the July 27th high Which is basic? No, yeah, the July 27th high Which is where that volume bullish engulfed or bearish engulfing pattern happened, right? And I was bearish engulfing pepper and Our highs are easy tested. We had kind of a push-up in volume on that day, too So I'm thinking we're going to go back up To that 4600 area on the SPX and test that high Here's This is so anyhow, so I'm making the case. I'm thinking we're gonna make it double high here now If you flip to chart three, okay Maybe going too fast, but no, no, this is good. This is good. We get it. Yep All right, so anyhow, so you know, but I'm thinking we got enough evidence that we probably ride back to the previous highs 4600 which is due July 27th and Here's the case on this that's it if the yes SPX goes back up to that 4600 area or makes a little bit higher high and The window below that is the SPX Dicks ratio. Yes, and this is what I think may develop don't know until it happens Happen yet. We need to rally first But if we rally up and the SPX fix ratio makes a lower high where the SPX Makes a higher high. You have the same diverges happening All noted in pink going back in the last few years, right all that pink areas and pink lines That's where the cases where the SPX made a higher high and the SPX fix ratio made a lower high And then that happens, you know, if we went back there that would be the most deviant thing the market could probably do too, right? Yeah, it catches everybody knows everybody's right. It really lean it on the sell button yesterday, right and So now but rallies back they kind of throw in the towel And that's where you get your worthwhile high at and I think it we're still making worthwhile high nothing real significant But I think we can get back to 4200 which is you know a 200 or 46 to 42 that's what 400 points, you know, that's what 8% give or take yes So that's why I'm thinking what's coming down the road here, but you know, it really set this trade up Is a rally and there's enough evidence Yes, we get back that 4600 and that is where I think I could go possibly end up with the cell signal Depends on what that SPX fix ratio does right and you know, it's always interesting Tim Isn't it that I mean the more that you can get either highs or lows tested the more information the market actually gives you Exactly, right. That's a good point. So a lot of times markets just then go straight up and straight down It can and it has in the past but your odds are extremely low betting on that idea You're a market corrects first tries to go back makes new highs and makes new highs and you know the bears give up and the bulls come back on and everybody gets trapped the bulls are long and The shorts are out of the market. Yeah, it kind of sets up. So you always kind of look for things that You know, you know, even you know, this this top sets up, you know, it'd be You're a fairly high probability Risk of a good cell signal. So, you know, but you know, you can look at those things, too You know, this is just one anchor that could give a signal But the volume indicators might also give a signal test the previous higher the lighter volume We should be awesome. Yeah, right, right. Yeah, the 10-day trend might be down around point nine or lower that be more information that You're you're probably a you know, odds of a good cell signal develop and there's a lot of things when you get there Oh, there's no guarantee. We'll get back to the previous. I get it. Yeah, just stay right there We're gonna quick break when we gotta come right back We have the Dow industry was right now trading down 31 Nasdaq's off six S&P's are up 11 and a half stay right there Tim I come right back Welcome back folks Tim or Tom and Brian. We do appreciate you go round and problem with us out here We have the Dow industry was down 38 Nasdaq's off five S&P's are off 11 and a half And we're taking a look at this S&P chart You know, it's gonna be interesting to Tim is that after the close out here today We have Apple as well as Amazon coming out with earnings. So I mean They have some big weightings inside the NDX as well as the S&P. So we'll see where this baby shakes out pretty quickly Yeah, this you know this week is It's like the week okay next week is week before option expiration week and In my opinion, that's probably where the I don't know the rally may start because a lot of times expiration week is up So he's kind of watched that so I don't know what's gonna go on for the next couple of days Yes, but In my opinion because of these indicators I think we're probably at least making a short-term low here They're going to take a stab at probably those highs my opinion probably option expiration We put you actually a couple weeks away, but okay. We'll see how it plays out. You know, I Went back to neutral and somebody's kind of waiting for the next, you know, hopefully this Next best trade to line up. So we'll see if it lines up or not. So right, right? No, we want to go to the next chart. Yes, absolutely All right, this is a this is a short-term things been it's kind of unusual chart It kind of showed this chart, you know, I thought we'd be at bottom here about a week ago but what's interesting here is Yeah, the bottom window is the 18-day average of the up-down boring advanced client No, it's the bottom window is GDX advanced decline percent 18-day average the next window up is the 18-day average of the up-down boring percent And anyhow in a nutshell when both of them are above minus 10 markets in an uptrend Well, the market did go and it gave a bicycle early July and Since then even though the markets pretty much pulled back to where that July bicycle has occurred Both those indicators is still well above minus 10. Okay Anyhow, I trust these indicators pretty well, right and there's some This never let's go back. I'll make an example here. If you go back to the high April there April May high that double top. Okay It's up around looks like about what 30 36 range. Yes double top there Yep, and if you go down to both indicators the first top you know The both indicators stayed well above minus 10 and the market rallied actually It wouldn't tested that high of 36 right in in May and look what happened to the indicators One fell below minus 10 the other one Kind of hung around minus 10 but finally fell below minus 10 But either one goes below minus 10 to sell single but that rally up to the second rally up to the high of April was a huge divergence there. Yes showing weakness. That was a great sell signal Right, I think and something happens here. This is probably gonna What I'm trying to say is The internals of the market according to these two indicators are actually strong even though prices move down quite a bit Both of the indicators remain relatively strong still well well above minus 10 So I'm thinking this is not a start of a big decline This is going to be a huge divergence because it's going to make a higher a Higher lows on both indicators even if the market breaks below the Early July low. No, it's just gonna be the opposite of the highs I know just saying because that's one point out Yeah, you can go back and actually look at other times this thing kind of set up, right? I don't know if the Gdx is actually gonna break that July low or not don't know but even if it does There's gonna be a huge divergence there, right? So something to watch though. This is not really Barriers is it's really buried at the market if the price holds up and both those indicators go through the floor That's when it's really varies here. The opposite as prices actually weaken quite a bit But both both those indicators that are fairly strong Well, I don't think there's there's something bad starting to happen here. So Today, you know yesterday we had some you know, we had an expansion of volume in the Gdx yesterday, but today the contractions Huge I mean yesterday we did 23 million shares today We're doing 11 and that led that you know the look that I you know the lowest swing load It's going into right now at 29 million. So, you know, the you know, it's not Yeah, you need energy to push down that right. Yeah, you're right. It's not showing up here. All right, right? So it's kind of a mushy market right now. Yes, but I think both markets probably rally You know, I'm thinking what's going to happen here over the next couple of months and how I think gdx It's in my opinion is probably gonna rally right into the September October time frame and where the spx spy May have a hard time between now and then right though. They never make it easy Yeah, they never make it easy, right? So you gotta you gotta trust your indicators and which is awesome Yeah, no the listen man. There's no doubt. It's it is amazing that these indicators have actually held up because price-wise You know, I think that's come down pretty good. I mean, we we know it's come down with, you know It the volume's contracted, but the reality is is that it's come down, you know You know what? It's really cool about the gdx, which I like Tim also is that up at that last high where it actually did fail That has a lot of volume man that that high That high out there when we had a couple of weeks ago No, I'm going all the way back to you know the end of April there. That's 36 million chair 36 million chairs up at that high Okay, you know, okay, so that's yeah, you're right. Yeah, that's and you're talking about the second high Yes, I'm talking about the second high, right, right? I know I've seen that too I think that volume will expand right, but you know the internals were crap I know no I got that's what that's why I'd love that indicator you're talking about that's what so cool Man it really is because it's like you know that you know realistically. Yeah, realistically. That's almost an ABC up I mean it took it outward volume and then you had a failure. Yeah, you know, right? Yeah So yeah, this is you know, because I'd screwed around a lot of obviously been screwing around gdx a long time Right, it's really fine. You know I could I used just bunch of different stuff volume figures You know moving average is doubted out of doubt and I finally came across these two indicators And you know, I got a 50-day on these these two type indicators and I do a cumulative volume and they produce a lot of information Yes, and it looks inside. What do you know? Gdx is actually doing and it does show strength and weakness Of just by these two indicators. You do so much with them. No, there's no doubt. There's no doubt. So pretty cool, man Well, we'll see what happens after this close out here today because we know that the you know I mean we might have a ying and a yang apple one may come out good one may come out bad And you know, we still go to the sideways the market who knows but you know Yeah, we're built in my opinion, but you know if you're looking at volume on the SPY or SPX today Yeah, you know, we're gonna come in way way like we are what yesterday Yes, you know, I don't think you have the energy to push down right here right now. That's right. We're gonna be up There tomorrow, but right you have to go at least sideways for a bit, right? It's only 50 million right now yesterday. We did 93 95. So yeah Yeah, so well listen, man. It's always a pleasure. Don't forget folks You're gonna get a hold of Tim every trading day at odd dash oracle calm That's odd dash oracle calm Tim You have a great one the safe one of course we look forward to speaking to you on Tuesday All right, sounds good. Thank you. Have a great one man. Have a safe one