 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the morning market's kickoff with your host Tommy O'Brien. Good morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN just after 9 a.m. Tuesday morning. We got markets right now trading in the positive but barely a bounce when you consider the action that we had yesterday. S&Ps right now, you're positive by 19 points. That's trading up half a percent at 37.72. The NASDAQ 100, you're up 8.10%. 11,416. The Dow up 100 points. We almost got a 29,000 handle in the Dow yesterday folks. Remarkable when you consider the facts that we were trading at 33,000 on just Thursday. That was Monday action. We almost got a 29 handle. You're talking about 3,000 points potentially in the Dow. You're talking about 9% in the indices. Can't overstate that. Basically, two to three trading days. Thursday, Friday, you come back Monday. Markets give up almost 8, 9, 10% depending on what market you're looking at. Remarkable. S&Ps, just for that same context, you were trading at almost 41.50. You dived down to 37.35. What is that? 265.415 points almost. That's almost an exact 10% pullback in the S&Ps from just Thursday morning to where we were on Monday low, 37.35. Zoom in on the overnight action. You see the climb that we did get. You were as high as 38.07, the volatility folks. You know it's here to stay. Look at the run that we had. We're positive by 18 points, but in the span of the overnight session, you had a move of, what is that, 50 points to the downside from 38.08 to 37.58? 37.56. 52 points you traded down from high to low. So yes, we are in positive territory, but I imagine it's going to be another day of some volatility. We come into a Fed meeting begins today. We get the announcement tomorrow. We're looking into that in a moment. The market now pricing in 75 basis points. We got a PPI number this morning, the headline number pretty startling, but not as high as expectations. And why don't we get right into that? You know what? Before we do, let's get to commodities because you got crude. Check out that acceleration, man. No pullback for crude. Crude yesterday was at 117.50. We just hit 123.37. You back things up. That's above where we were. Nope, to a penny. Okay. No, wait, what was our high today? Yeah, 128. Excuse me. 123.37 is the high. We get above the high from June 8th. So you're only talking about three days that we traded above this price level. That is higher highs and lower lows folks coming at you. 123.10 right now for the price of crude. We'll talk to our man, Teddy Kakes, that tomorrow, if you're into 4x folks, if you're into crude oil, 40 past the hour on Wednesdays, I talked to Teddy, always a great segment. He's been a bull in this crude market for a while. And man, you talk about a run, folks. You know, just for a second, taking a look at this crude. I mean, if you take that acceleration that began on March 1st when the war broke out, okay. I mean, this is a trend that's pretty well intact. You know, maybe things got a little bit ahead of itself too quickly. But you take this out and I'm ballparking it, but you get the point. We are in a run that we have been in for the better part of December 2nd from a low of $62. That trend picking up right where it was for basically December through February, we trade higher, you pull back. Now yeah, I'm ballparking. Where does this line sit below? The general idea though, we are in an uptrend in the price of crude and that is remarkable when you're trading at $123.02 right now in the price of crude. You jump over to gold, backing off a bit, gold at $18.21, down about $10 and we jumped to notes and bonds, a slight reprieve from where we were yesterday. Jumping over, where are we right now? What are we sitting at? Like 3.28% I think on the 10-year? Oh no, we're not. We backed off. We're at 3.34%. 3.34%. What were we sitting at at the low? Does anybody know what we hit on the 10-year when this thing kind of accelerated towards the end of the day yesterday? What did we get for a high in the yield in the 10-year? We hit 3.5%. So we're positive by 8 ticks right now. We're almost a full point off of the low and we're still have a yield of 3.34%. Crazy action in a big way. All right, let's jump over to the news. So we're going to jump to Coinbase and crypto in a moment, but why not start with the PPI? Wholesale numbers, 10.8% in May near a record annual pace. You could almost say near record or record with about every number going on right now as we do 3.28, Tommy. All right, what I was looking at, yeah, is it 3.28? The number I was pulling up had the yield of 3.34. Maybe that's wrong. Either way, folks, 3.3% the yield on the 10-year right now. That or there about 10.8% in May was the number for PPIs. How about 0.8% for the month? Month over month, almost a full percentage increased. The monthly rise in line with estimates and doubling the pace in April, so they were expecting 0.8 to come in. If you exclude food and energy and trade, the so-called core PPI rose 0.5% for the month, slightly below the 0.6 estimate, but an increase from the 0.4 reading in the previous month, I wouldn't get so caught up, folks, in the readings from previous. The estimate is how the market is usually going to react. Now, as the trend shapes, if you're increasing month over month over month, the market's going to react, and maybe it's going to pull back 10% or something like that, like we've seen the last three days. On a year-over-year basis, the core measure, 6.8% matching April's gains. The two PPI measures remain near their historic highs, and the highs 11.5% for the headline, 7.1% in core. Both of those hit in March. Now, when we got the CPI number, though, remember March was supposed to be where inflation had peaked. It might not be the case, man, with what's going on. That's not what the CPI said. On Friday, and the markets reacted tremendously. Okay, let's jump over to crypto. Let's pull up a chart of Bitcoin. Bitcoin, we breached 21,000, folks. You watch out, man. Yesterday, when I was doing my show, zooming in on the action of where we are on that timeframe, let's see, did my show at about 23.5. That's where the stock was trading at for most of the hour. And you reach down an additional $3,000 to $20,775. Now, here's the thing to keep in mind, man. Bitcoin's down. There's a lot of things to keep in mind when you're talking about crypto right now. MicroStrategy. They have no business trading right now at $152, folks. I'm not sure what's going to happen with this equity, but stay away. Margin calls are coming. Here's the headline. I was talking about it yesterday. They said on one of their conference calls, I think, or it was released in a filing, I think it was a conference call on their last earnings that 21,000 would be the price point that they would have to come up with more collateral. But here's the kicker, and here Bitcoin needs to cut in half for around 21,000 before we'd have a margin call. That was the president said on a call in early May. Well, I imagine he was hoping or thinking or just being optimistic to the nth degree that Bitcoin wouldn't get cut in half that quick. Nonetheless, here we are. You just breached 21,000. That means that MicroStrategy is probably on a call with their bankers this morning or last night or yesterday, more likely. More Bitcoin to the collateral package. Before it gets to 50%, we could contribute more Bitcoin so it never gets there. So I'm not sure if they did that, but here's the thing. They're using Bitcoin to collateralize Bitcoin purchases as Bitcoin crashes. The collateral they're using is crashing for the loans that they're getting and what they're buying with those loans. That's a dicey strategy, folks, and maybe that's part of the reason it just crashed to below 20,000. Maybe they were part of the reason that it went from 23,000 to 20,000 yesterday. Well, talking with our man, Kevin Hinks, when we come back, folks from TD Ameritrade Network, we'll be right back. In a time of booming inflation, we are purchasing powers eroded. There's no better place to protect your harder and money than in gold. Vista Gold's flagship asset is the Monk Todd Gold Project in the Northern Territory of Australia. This is Australia's largest undeveloped gold project. We are talking a world-class gold project in a tier one mining district. This is a large-scale, low-cost project with significant existing infrastructure and a politically safe and friendly mining jurisdiction. 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Steve's award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability, is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's market newsletter, Mastering Probability, and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free. At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee, so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability, 30 days risk-free today. TFNN, educating investors. Let's jump over to our man, Kevin Hinks. Every trading day, folks, 12 noon Eastern Time, right here on Tiger TV, fast market on the TD Ameritrade Network. Your host, Kevin Hinks, Tom White. Do you think we have a fast enough market in these markets right now? Kevin Hinks, good morning. Good morning, Tommy O'Brien. Yes, things are moving kind of quickly. Yesterday, excuse me, was a pretty incredible day. I think it was frankly, you know, the CPI number on Friday sent the market, you know, a very negative tone over the market, which bled into the weekend, which bled into the future Sunday night and all day yesterday. Now we've got some dust settling as several things got into the oversold category. I think this is going to be interesting. A lot of speculation on Jerome Powell doing more than 50 basis points when the Fed meets for the record, for my perspective, he has never shown a propensity to do things that, you know, in terms of shocking the market. And I think since he told us he was going to move 50 basis points, I would be surprised if he does that. I mean, now, I don't say never, I don't say always I use probabilities. I would say it's a low probability, but boy, the talking pundits and the talking heads, they are screaming for a bigger move by the Fed. I don't know if that's coming. I think if Jerome Powell was going to do that, Tommy, he would have pre announced and guided that way early. So I don't know if he's going to come out and shock the market, Tommy. That would not be his normal course of action. It seems like it's still, and this is my opinion in the shift, it's still pretty early in the hiking cycle that they might have the room, as they've been saying, is that they're going to be data dependent and they need to give it a little bit of time. And maybe that's his wiggle room there that they made their decision. He's not going to be guided off one CPI number in June. There's a lot going on outside of the core there that we all know. I was looking, Kevin, before you came on the air, we talked to you every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, three times a week. We stay in touch with you, man. The last time we talked to you on Thursday, we had the S&P trading at 4100 and we had Bitcoin trading at 30,000. What's your take on crypto right now, man? You got Coinbase laying off a ton of people. I mean, everybody's talking about it, whether you're in the market or not. It seems like everybody knows that the crypto is crashing right now. What's your take on crypto and maybe how that plays into just the market volatility as well? Do you think that's one of the factors here, bringing down the market as well? What's the chicken and egg, right? What's doing what here? Yeah, exactly. I think there's a relationship between speculative asset and Bitcoin and cryptocurrency, but it doesn't make me feel good. Now, on the record, I have never traded a cryptocurrency or Bitcoin. Never, Tommy. Now, that being said, there are highly speculative asset and it would cause me great concern the fact that some of these firms aren't letting you get your money out or aren't letting you do things. Any restriction on movement of money or trading is a big red flag for me, Tommy. And I don't think these markets in Bitcoin, they're just highly speculative. And if you don't want volatility in your life or you don't want more of it, I wouldn't be trading these unless you have the temperament for volatility because that's what these are. I mean, it's been quite a ride here. But then again, Tommy, you can look at Bitcoin and I'll say, what about Boeing? Boeing is out 75% and that's a major US industrial. So, you know, things can move and there's never been a more obvious reason as of late to trade risk defined. And you can be right and you can be wrong and both of them are limited, Tommy. So, I think there's lessons to be learned here. Never say something can't move. Never say it can't go any further than this because it always can. Yeah, you make some great points. Boeing, man. Zoom, jump to mine, Kevin. As I've been in conversation with a friend yesterday, I mean, Zoom, I just have it on a three-year weekly. There's quite a list, Tommy. You're back to 2019 prices on Zoom. The cool thing about Zoom is that Zoom makes money. You know, a lot of these companies, right? You don't make money. Maybe things get really out of whack. Zoom makes money. Still, the multiples got a little crazy. Got up to almost 600. You're trading at 100 right now. Not many people would have thought Zoom was trading back to 2019 prices as a profitable company even when they had that runoff. You speak to it, man. Defined risk. Because I imagine a lot of people, big believers in Zoom, it traded above 300 for almost a full year I'm looking at, well above that area. We were at 400 less than a year ago. I'm not sure a lot of people were defining that risk in Zoom, even if they were just holding the equity, thinking they were risking 75, 85% loss to what they had in those numbers. Just staggering, man. We march forward. We have some earnings coming out, Kevin, but we got a Fed meeting starting today. All eyes, as you say, will be on the decision tomorrow. Lots to talk about for those talking heads. Always tantalizing when you can talk about that they may ramp it up with a 75 basis point cut. Hike. Hike. Excuse me. We find out tomorrow. What are you guys going to be talking about on Fast Market coming up at 12 today, Kevin? Yeah, we're going to look at FedEx that has news out today. Activist Investor is causing that company to make some moves. And then like Bolio will do a presentation on the travel sector focusing on Expedia. And then in the third segment, we'll look at DoorDash or just Dash, as they call it, food delivery. Nice. Yeah. FedEx with a nice pop DoorDash. Another one of those companies, man, right? $257 down to $58 from November to June. But the world has changed, man. Ordering food, DoorDash. I use Instacart often. The thing I find, you've talked about in your program, Kevin, some of these things like streaming, of course, right? You start out, everything is so cheap. Now it feels like I'm paying more for just the streaming entities I have. Uber used to be as cheap as could be. You see some time, at least they're going to ramp things up. I found myself Instacart. Things are just getting so expensive, man. When you add the fees, you add the tips, you add everything in there. It's interesting to see how that's going to play out. Competition. Very fierce when you got Uber and Dash competing. Well, Kevin, we appreciate the time you take with us every morning, man. And we'll be watching at 12 today. It should be an interesting one. Defined risk, man. We love it. We enjoy the program. And thanks for doing what you do out there every day. Have a great day, Tommy. Thanks for having me on. Buckle up, everybody. That's right. Buckle up, folks. And you know how you buckle up? You watch Fast Market at 12. You watch Tiger TV and define your risk, folks. It's one of the amazing things that you can do with options. You can do it in equities as well. But man, we've seen surprises overnight, right? Where things fall out of bed. We've seen them over and over. And as I stated, it's not just defined risk, avoiding an overnight gap, defining your risk with equities and maybe that's using stops. But boy, I've learned some lessons. I think we've all learned some lessons when you get ahead of yourself and you think where things could possibly go. Zoom. It just comes to mind, folks, because it's a profitable company. This is not a company banking on future earnings, where you can trade from $5.88 down to a price point of $80. It's a profitable company. Still, multiples, way ahead of itself. Roku. $4.90 to $73. Now, I keep talking about Roku, man. At some point, there is value in Roku for a competitor. The story flopped out there recently with Netflix. Roku right now is sitting about $10 billion. I mean, for context, folks, that's about a $0.60 move in the price of Apple is $10 billion in terms of their market cap. Apple, quite a pullback from $180 to $131. You're sitting right at this 3A2 critical area for Apple in terms of maybe that's an area of support just under that price level right now. We're catching a little bit of a lift for Apple shares this morning. Stay tuned, folks. We'll be right back for the open. If you want to take advantage of this sector, now is the time to subscribe to my Gold Report. The Gold Report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector, as well as the markets that move gold, which is the currency and bond markets. New subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee, so you have nothing to lose. Every Monday morning, I publish the Gold Report with coverage of gold, silver, bonds, the XAU, HUI, GDX, as well as more than 30 different mining equities. To see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the Gold Report, sign up now by visiting TFNN.com. Don't miss out on the next great gold trade. Sign up today. When you join our community of traders in the Tigers Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other Tigers and Tigresses as they share trading ideas, news analysis, and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tigers Den at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well, so it's always at your reach. To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN is excited about our new software charting program, the Art of Timing the Trade Chart. In collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best-selling book, The Art of Timing the Trade, your ultimate trading mastery system, David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology. Using this first-of-its-kind program, the Art of Timing the Trade Chart allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups, including guardleafs, ABCs, butterflies, and much more. The Art of Timing the Trade Chart is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks, or even months searching to find. And right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month. We are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money-back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of the Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We've got markets open right now. You have Apple open up about eight-tenths percent. You're seeing a little bit of a give-back. I mean, check out that give-back on Apple. You're almost opening a buck higher. I mean, that's the type of move I'm talking about, folks. You think that Roku is expensive at $10 billion, okay? Apple was just trading at $133.80 and they just gave up $16 billion in market cap that quick to show how little that money is actually to a company like Apple. Netflix, it's a lot more money, okay? Netflix right now is only trading at a market cap of, I think, what, $80 billion, something like that? The last time I checked, let's see where we're at. $75 billion as of today. So, not that easy to buy a $10 or $15 billion company or $20 billion when you're paying some premium, but you add in the likes of Amazon, the streaming Apple, streaming company, and maybe Netflix. Maybe that's their turnaround ideal, getting the gatekeeper being Roku, having tens of millions of basically the portal to streaming that Roku is. I'm not sure if they'd face some antitrust. I don't think so, the way that Amazon controls their fire stick, but a lot of people know more than I on that. S&Ps, they give up some of it, folks. I mean, for the destruction that we saw yesterday, this is not even a bounce, folks, because you are, right now, from where you were trading last night, a solid 1% off of the highs already is one way to look at it. Yes, we're up by 12 points on the session, but we are down 1% since 2 in the morning. So, negative returns are not past us just yet. Quite a drop-off. I was going to ask Kevin, I meant to, because he made some great points prior that a couple of times when we've had an acceleration, I'm not sure when it was off to pull it up, but one of these accelerations, and it might have been March 15th, yeah. I think that was right as we came into a Fed meeting. So, maybe it's the rumor that you, buy the rumor, sell the news, as in all of the acceleration gets built into the markets prior to the actual event that the market is trading, and then from there you get a relief rally of sorts. I mean, we haven't seen a drop-off like this, folks, in a long time. Those are three daily bars that take the S&P down 10% over those three days. That is lightning-fast action. NASDAQ 100, we're up about 100 points right now, 11,427. Let's jump around to some of the fang stocks, see how they're trading. Amazon gets a lift. How about a spike high on the first day that after they go public, you trade up to 128, 29, and then Amazon gives up, what, $25? That's a $500 move pre-split, $500 move pre-split. Amazon, up by about 1.5% to 104 right now, just above the lows of May 24th of 101.26. You jump to Microsoft shares, up about 8.10% right now. We talked about Apple, up about 1.5% right now. We jump over to Tesla shares. Tesla, up a bit, excuse me, up 1.5%. We jump over to Twitter shares. There's a lift for you up 3.8%. Facebook shares, I always go to Facebook. It's meta now, meta up 8.10% right now. Oracle had numbers, give it up some of that. Look at this drop-off. Oracle basically gets back what it lost in the last four days. You're up 10.5%. Staggering, that's what you lost in the last few days. Oracle, out with their numbers. Better than expected earnings report. Well, that should be the case. Major increase in demand for cloud infrastructure is what their CEO said in a statement. The earnings, $1.54 versus $1.37, $11.84 versus $11.86. Revenue increased 5% from a year earlier, driven by growth in the company's cloud infrastructure, which competes with Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure. I imagine there's going to be room for all of the big players in the cloud, folks. The cloud is the future. That unit increased sales by 36%. Cloud revenue by 19% to $2.9 billion. They don't crack the top five global providers of cloud infrastructure as of the end of last year, but the company's been touting its ability to not just pull legacy customers over to its cloud products, but also attracts new ones. That's crazy when you think about it. Cloud revenue is $3 billion, and they're not even in the top five. They're not even a big player on Oracle. They do open a little bit, getting back to the 15 minute. They give up some of those gains from 73 to 70, but that's strong acceleration. They're basically sitting right where they were after the initial thrust hire and the earnings call. I gave you some of those quotes about demand being higher. You just give back some of that. You're still up 10% in a dicey market right now. Let's jump over to crypto. Bitcoin, $22,430 right now. We jump over to micro strategy. Micro strategy down 2.7% right now. We jump over to Coinbase. You can't fault them for trying to save some money, folks, because I imagine that their trading revenue is drying up immensely. You can't trade Bitcoin when it's a one-way drop to zero prices, folks. Look at this drop, man. $368 to $50, and that is in the span of about seven months. Bitcoin over that time, $70,000 to $22,000. This is an important area, folks, as in we just broke away from an area of support that has been holding since basically the beginning of 2021. I've been talking about it, 10,000, folks. It was a one-way trip from October to January 4th. You went from 10,000 to 42,000 in the span of about three months. It's no reason why you can't go back to 10,000, just like that, in the price of Bitcoin. Be careful. Ethereum, I mean, you've now accelerated past the 1 to 1.618. That is of this acceleration you got upward. Regardless of that, you're talking about what? You go from 5,000 to 2,500. Check this out. Ethereum might have just completed an A to B, C to D on the downside. I'm ballparking numbers, but let's call it 5,000 down to about 2,500. If you want to be exact, it's 4,900. Maybe you call the B point 2,158. What are you looking at? 2,750 would be your A to B. 2,750. That would take you down to an additional 75, as in 750 would be your D point. But if you're just ballparking, you make it to almost 5,000. Here's an area where you're kind of based for a period. That's your B point about 2,500. So you have your A to B about 2,500 points. You take that off. You get 1,000. We're almost there. Amazing that you did it in these are weeks. You trade from 3,500 to 1,000 in the span of two and a half months. Wild. All right. Let's jump around and see what else I had pulled up here. We talked about the producer price index. Well, before we jump away from crypto, all I'll say is don't listen to the crypto bulls, folks. What else are they going to say? Novogratz. He's been a huge crypto bull. Crypto going through a quote-unquote long-term capital management moment, but it's nearing the bottom, folks. It's nearing the bottom. Anyway, very biased opinion. Do not be swayed by people who are super biased bulls in crypto. Okay. You want to hear analysis from people who are not super biased bulls in crypto. I mean, why should it be a bottom? We've gone to the level that should be close to a bottom. Why? Why? There's capitulation. This thing is going straight down. Usually not a good area to sell, but it doesn't mean we can't go lower, thanks to the obvious. I think the macro environment is still pretty challenging out there. Be careful. Bottom line. All right. What else do we have pulled up here? One second. Yeah, talking about capitulation, but that's not the article I wanted. Oh, come on. All right. Good. I got a break. I'm going to find the article I wanted to talk about. All right. We're seeing the markets weighing, folks. We've got 22 minutes left in my program and we got a treat. Larry Pesvento is going to be back live at 11 o'clock, folks. Basil's up next at 10. I got 20 minutes left in my show, but Larry, he couldn't stay away from this market. He's back at 11 o'clock. We'll be right back for the next segment. 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That's where you're almost open. You get the NASDAQ barely positive by eight, the Dow positive by 46, the Russell actually going into the negative. Bitcoin back to flirt with that 22,000 mark, 22,160 Ethereum under $1,200 at $1,196. You had a low of $1,075 in Ethereum last night. Gold contract down about $10 at $18.20 and we jumped to notes and bonds. We're sitting with the yield right now. Let's make sure. 3.34% I believe the yield on the 10-year, $115.15 right now on the 10-year. You pull this thing back on a weekly basis. Talk about breaking out of the range man. This thing already was trading lower in August of last year. You come into the year at $134.14. We've given up 15 points of action in the 10-year and in that time you've seen yields go from about 1.5% to kick off the year to now 3.5% in the 10-year and it's not even halfway through the year folks, June 14th today. We jump over to the VIX. You talk about some spikes, 33.86. Here's what I'll say. That's a spike for you. Recent highs when you start to see maybe some waning of volatility, I'd say high 30s. Last year we had some lower levels in the middle of last year. That was prior to inflation raging. Then we had the highs that had to do with 2020 volatility. For COVID, of course, we have the 85 spike high as the market crashed as COVID began, but the market inching towards a level worth 33.89. Maybe we're not done yet though folks. S&Ps just go negative as we speak. As I said, usually the high 30s are where we've been peaking out this year at least. 38.94, 37.52, technically where are we going? 37.52 maybe and 36.64 are the recent highs we're sitting at 33.88 right now for the volatility index and yeah, markets turn a negative, NASDAQ turn a negative as well. Jumping over to one chart I wanted to show you. So inflation data likely to push the Fed to consider 75 basis point hike. There's a lot of people saying it as Kevin was talking about it. You take a look at this chart, man. The CPI is in black, the core number is in pink. That's a scary chart if you're the Fed folks. You've already hiked 25 and then you hiked 50 and it doesn't seem to be waning. It's mind blown when you think about that we are now running into comps folks that were at four and five percent on a core basis. Right? May's number from last year, okay? This is the worrisome part that I wanted to talk about. May's number from last year was already a 5% headline inflation number with core prices hitting 4%. I'm rounding up from 3.8, okay? Core was 3.8, headline number is 5%. We just came in at 8.6 and 6. So you rose 5% then you rose almost 9%. So that means on a two-year basis, okay? Now you did have the dip going back last year to be fair, okay? Where's our May? You had no headline increase in May of 2020 from 2019, okay? But if you take where we are from May of 2020, you had a 5% number and then an 8.6% number. That's a 13.6% number, not even compounded. So you're talking about rising prices of what, 14% or something like that, okay? The scary part is that these comps that we are now into, okay? It's not going to get any better. The comp of 5% in May was basically what the market had been waiting for because if you look, the comps were dealing within June or 5.4. I mean, the core number sitting at about 4.3, the headline number sitting at about 5.3, okay? For the next, what? June, July, August, and September, that's the comp we're getting. That's it. So the market is already blown away that comp and it's going to be there for the next four months. And in May it was 8.6%. Even on the core number, you've blown it away. Now things are really going to get interesting folks, okay? If we start comping out, and that really begins, the numbers that really accelerated were October, November, December, we had a 7% headline, we had a core number at 5.5, we had a 6% core number in January, okay? But that's six months away. We're still dealing with numbers, but that's what the market's worried about right now, okay? We're dealing with comps that should have made things easier when this go around. And still the market is crushing inflation even against comps that were pretty high. So you have Goldman and Nomura Holdings, both shifted on Monday to a 75 basis point hike. This week and at the Fed's meeting in late July, JP Morgan also went to 75 basis points at this week's meeting, joining Barclays and Jeffries. So you have Barclays, Jeffries, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Nomura, saying 75 basis points. He's going to get some questions if he doesn't do it. And I saw an interesting take yesterday, as the markets climb a little bit back into the positive, saying the Fed's in a really tough spot now, and that's what happens when you get behind the eight ball, okay? Because what do they do? If they go 50 basis points, market's going to say not enough, not enough, did you see those inflation numbers? Not enough, you're not bringing it, you're not doing what's necessary, okay? If they go to 75 basis points, the market's going to go, you're scared, you know you're behind the eight ball, you're panicking, you can't get inflation under control, and you're going against your message that you put out there. Those are their two choices, and there's going to be rhetoric like I just stated on either side of it. That is a tough scenario. Where's the optimism, folks? Excuse me. I mean, we saw the non-farm payroll from A came in, and people called it almost a Goldilocks number, as in it was just a sweet spot, right? Waning growth, but not too much waning growth to crush the economy, but maybe just enough waning growth for jobs that there'll still be jobs gained. We won't hit a recession, but it'll be the pullback that we need to slow the growth in this economy and bring down inflation, and still the market's sold off. And then we got the CPI number, and now we get the PPI number. It's a tough spot for the Fed. We're dealing with some tough comps. Food prices are going nowhere lower right now. Energy prices, crude is sitting still comfortably at $12346 as we spike higher. The last 15 minutes, crude just traded up $1. It's like it just doesn't end right now in that market. All right, let's jump around and see what other headlines I had pulled up here. If you want a little bit of hope, you might see a little bit of glimmer, because basically, the market's been trashed so much. That's what this article says, at least NASDAQ bulls, see a glimmer of hope in aggressive Fed. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note jumps to the highest since 2011. The market's drop in 2022 has eased concerns over valuation. Well, yeah, but there's still some concerns, folks. You take a look at the yield. This is what I wanted to pull up here. Rising yields, you're above where you were in 2018, above where you were in 2013, 2014, and you're back to 2011. As I said, crazy when you think about it, right? The yields were at half a percent in 2020. You came into this year at 1.5%. That's when everybody knew the hiking cycle was coming. Just if you didn't learn it from this one, okay, you've got to learn how decisively markets can trade sometimes to get ahead of an event. I mean, you're seeing a play out right now with potentially the Fed meeting coming down the line. The market is getting ahead of that event. If he comes out and he hikes 75 basis points tomorrow, maybe in the market rallies. That's quite a word we live in right now. Stay tuned, folks. We've got one more segment. We'll be right back to finish up the show. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis. And it's not just dry, tedious text either. 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When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from Veteran Day Trader Larry Pesavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com Educating Investors is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We have markets back in the green right now. You got an S&P positive by about 10 points. Taking a look on a Fibonacci basis, you go for the low of 21.74 up to the high of 48.08. We're sitting right now just below that 3A2. We're breaking that level. That was about 3,800. We're 3,765. You trade to the 50%. You're talking about 3,495. If I had cash out of this market that I was thinking about getting back in, I wouldn't be too worried about the opportunity cost right now. Yes, you're going to get some bounces. Yes, eventually it's going to find a low. If you're that worried about missing out, then you'll have to find an entry. But boy, I'd be looking for 3,500 or even 3,200 in this market. 3,200 I'd feel a lot more comfortable. I was talking to a friend yesterday in a friend group chat, right? And I was saying, you have to consider where this market has been. This is not what market death looks like. Somebody's saying, will the market ever go up again? Look where it's been. Look where it's been, folks, since 2009. Will the market ever go up again? You take the COVID collapse out of here and this thing's going straight up from 670 to 5,000. Now, if you want some real context, the S&Ps were sitting at 2100 when Trump got elected. I'm not cherry picking the 600 low. You can take a lot of different price levels, but remember, Trump and Harris are the best economy ever. That's what a lot of people said, right, that it was already on course. Whatever it was, that seems like yesterday. The market was at 2100. The market's sitting at 3,700 right now, six years later. That's double digit returns over the last six years, even from where that lives. You go back 10 years ago. You go back 10 years ago to where the S&Ps were. You were trading at a price point of, is that right? Yeah. Now, again, I'm not even cherry picking the lows. I'm not taking 600. I'm going back 10 years ago. The S&Ps were trading at about 1,400. What's that? Two and a half to three times your money over 10 years. Okay. Huge returns still across the board. So keep that in mind. When you think about where we are, the death of the markets, what is possible on a pullback, folks? Stay vigilant. Define your risk. Think about areas that you want to be buying potentially. If it gets lower, think about your risk tolerance. We will get over this, but we get some volatility coming down the line, folks. Stay tuned. Basil's up next. Larry Live at 11. Live programming all day, folks. Have a great Tuesday.