 Aloha, I'm Kirsten Baumgart Turner and this is Sustainable Hawaii, streaming live every Tuesday at noon from the ThinkTech Hawaii studio in downtown Honolulu. I seem to have gotten a frog just as we came on air. Excuse me. We're going to talk about climate changes occurring today in Hawaii and the U.S. affiliated Pacific Islands and how it's impacting coastal infrastructure, terrestrial ecosystems, ocean and coastal ecosystems, and communities and cultures. Hawaii and the six U.S. affiliated Pacific Islands, which are American Samoa, the Federated States of Micronesia, Guam, the Marshall Islands, the Northern Mariana Islands and Palau include 2,000 islands with about 1.9 million inhabitants, representing numerous languages and cultures. Here to talk with us today about the climate changes affecting these islands, including us in Hawaii, is Zina Grekny, Project Specialist for the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment. Ms. Grekny received a Master of Environmental Management from the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies. Her program of studies centered on climate change adaptation and freshwater and coastal governance with a particular focus on small islands. Welcome Zina. Aloha. Thank you. Kirsten. It's great to be here. I want to ask you first what brought you to Hawaii besides the fact that we are a chain of small islands. Yes. That's a great question. I actually first came to Hawaii in 2009 with my now husband, who grew up on a farm on the Windward side of Oahu in Waiaholei. I didn't know how long I was going to stay in Hawaii at first, but when I got here, I fell in love with the islands and I also learned a lot about how climate change was affecting them and the resources and cultures at risk and began working right away on that at the University of Hawaii. Well tell us about the PERCA, the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Change Assessment. Absolutely. I work as the sustained assessment specialist at Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment, which we also call PERCA, P-I-R-C-A for short, and PERCA is really engaging scientists but also resource managers, practitioners in government and business and communities in the process to identify climate risks and address them. My job really is to introduce scientists to practitioners and have that conversation about what practitioners actually need in their everyday work to better deal with the effects of climate change. Then scientists can produce information that fits those needs and is better tailored to their own terms and formats. Tell us what the region entails. I know I listed the actual island nations, but a lot of people don't know where those are and we have a great slide I think that you can walk us through. Yeah, absolutely. If I could see that slide. So our region is only the U.S. affiliated Pacific Islands, so we don't actually work on all 22 Pacific Islands territories and countries, but we do work in, as you said, American Samoa and Guam, which are territories. We work in the Federated States of Micronesia and the Republic of the Marshall Islands, the Commonwealth of the Northern Marian Islands and Palau, which are all affiliated with the United States through the Compact of Free Association. This territory encompasses more than 20,000 islands and atolls, and it also encompasses the National Marine Monuments, like Papahanao, Mokua Kea, and others, and so it's really a vast region, includes tremendous ocean territory. We often refer to the Pacific Islands as, they are often referred to as small island states, but we like to refer to them as large ocean states because they encompass so much ocean. It's really fascinating to think of that, it's like a reverse negative. It gives them a lot more power in terms of what they control and sort of reframes it in a different light. That's true because we think of them as such tiny spots and the vast global issues, but when you talk about the resources that the ocean has and how they, we are very dependent upon them, it's actually a huge impact that these tiny island nations can have, particularly when they bring to light the issues that you're bringing to us today. What are some of those issues, and I know that you've given us some slides on the indicators you're assessing. Yeah, so the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment, in their last report, identified a number of key indicators of climate change. These are indications in the physical environment, changes that we're seeing, ways that we know climate change is happening throughout our region, and those include changes in rainfall patterns, and in some cases this means particularly on atolls and low-lying islands that freshwater may become more limited in the future and is becoming more limited already. We see sea level rise, which brings more severe and more frequent coastal flooding and erosion. It means changes in our marine ecosystems, including ocean acidification and ocean temperatures rising, which threaten our coral ecosystems, and also our benthic fisheries, deeper ocean fisheries. It means that our native plant and animal communities, particularly those that are rare and endangered, may face more stress and possibly extinction in the future, and it means threats to indigenous cultures and human communities, especially those living on those low-lying atolls and along the coast as their resource spaces and their land bases become threatened by climate change and sea level rise. And I think you actually have a graph of some of these in the previous indicator slide. Yes, absolutely. So this is a pictorial representation from our 2012 report of the different ways that climate is changing, the different factors of our climate that are experiencing change. And so this sort of demonstrates visually the things that I was just talking about in terms of habitats and species distribution is changing. In Hawaii, we're seeing base flow in our streams declining. And of course, as sort of a driver of all of this, we're seeing carbon dioxide concentrations rising. So this is really an amazing graphic because it's like a modern illustration of the Ahupua concept of the native Hawaiians before colonial contact and how they managed the land. And we're beginning to go back and use that in not just our scientific approaches, but in our city and statewide planning. So it's lovely to see this. Tell us a little bit more about the water issues because we know that we've had a lot of rainfall unseasonally, and it's caused a lot of flash flooding. Explain to our audience how that can cause drought and actually how do we account for the lower level in our freshwater streams? Yeah, that's a really good observation that we have seen a lot of rainfall recently with the recent El Nino pattern. And that's one feature of the Pacific Islands is that their rainfall is highly variable from year to year. And a lot of that has to do with the El Nino Southern Oscillation, which is a pattern that we see of ocean temperatures and air temperatures and pressure changing year to year and causing us to have less rainfall in some years and more severe and sort of devastating, almost dangerous rainfall in other years. But overall, over the last decade, rainfall in Hawaii and also some of the other eastern Pacific Islands in Micronesia has decreased overall on average. So we have to separate out. This is the difficult task of climate scientists. And sometimes I'm glad that I'm not actually doing the hydrologic modeling. I'm not actually doing the climate modeling myself that I have this job of translating it instead, because it's a difficult task to separate out what is climate change at times versus other phenomena like the El Nino or like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which also has a large influence. And but those oscillations are actually being impacted themselves, right? So although those are natural cycles, they aren't occurring in their natural cycle. So that's right. And that further complicates the projections for the future for rainfall in particular. So with sea level rise, there's less uncertainty in terms of the magnitude. And well, there are actually there's a lot of a certainty in the magnitude of sea level rise, too. But in terms of what's already happening, they can see sea level rise where with rainfall may need to wait a little while to see that trend. And particularly we don't know what's yet what's going to happen with El Nino. The science is improving. We're constantly getting a better understanding of what El Nino Southern Oscillation means and how it affects the Pacific Islands. But we still need more time and research on that. So in your research, what are you seeing as the most poignant messages that we're getting out of that long list that you gave us, which is already pretty astounding? Absolutely. That's a great question. I would say that sea level rise, the coastal flooding and erosion has a lot of implications, both for Hawaii, but also for the US affiliated Pacific Islands. So we're looking at at all nations like in Micronesia and the Marshall Islands. People may lose their entire land base. So these are islands where they're only a few meters above sea level at the highest point. And they're starting to think about questions of migration possibly in the future. Should they lose their land and resource base? Or should they need to to regroup in another location as a country? Well, we know that in many locations, people are already having to move. I'm thinking of examples in the Aleutian Islands. And I remember at the World Conservation Congress, the Tongan minister, I believe the prime minister was here and they already have begun moving back communities. Are there other examples in the US affiliated islands that that they're actually having to move now? And the US affiliated islands, I think it's people are starting to plan for this into the future. And I think the idea of it and the projections have a lot of bear a lot of impact on their future planning for their families and for the future of their communities. I don't know personally of any examples of places in the US affiliated islands that have relocated to date. But in places like Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu, I believe it's already much more tangible. And in the Western Pacific, we've seen the highest rates of sea level rise in the last 30 years of the entire world, which may or may not continue. But in any case, it's really put a fine point on the need to move quickly. And I know a question our viewers might have that I had Chip Fletcher, Dr. Fletcher from UH, answer on this show a while ago. And maybe you can help remind us is why is that that in certain areas, the sea level rises more than others? Because intuitively, that doesn't connect, you know? Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. I mean, Dr. Fletcher would be a much better person to answer this question than I am and I'm glad he answered on on your show. But ocean processors are complex and winds are prevailing winds over the Pacific Ocean have a lot of import onto the ocean, the sea level and ocean currents. And I think in certain years, in certain decades, there are trends towards those winds pushing the water physically to the western half of the Pacific. And then it may change in other years and pushback. So I've heard that this trend towards western sea level rise being highest may actually change in the next decade. Well, that's pretty scary and has a great implication for us here in Hawaii since we're Central Pacific. And we're going to take a short break and then we'll get back and return with us to talk with Zina Greckney from the East West Centers, Perka, the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment. And we'll find out how that's going to affect Hawaii. Aloha, everybody. My name is Mark Schlaufe. I'd like you to join me for my program, Law Across the Sea on thinktechhawaii.com. Aloha. Hi, I'm Stacey Hayashi with a thinktech Hawaii show, Stacey to the Rescue, highlighting some of Hawaii's issues. You can catch it at thinktechhawaii on Mondays at 11 a.m. Aloha. See you then. Aloha. I'm Carl Campania, host of thinktech Hawaii's Movers, Shakers, and Reformers. I hope you join us over the next several weeks as we take a deep dive into biofuels in Hawaii and explore the alternative fuels supply chain necessary for the local and global transition towards transportation fuel sustainability. Join us as we have good conversations with our farmers, our producers, our conversion technologies, our investors, and our legislators as we try to achieve our transportation sustainability goals. See you soon. Hi, we're back with Zina Greckney and we're talking about the Pacific Islands Climate Change Assessment with regard specifically to Hawaii and our U.S. affiliated neighbors, neighbor island states. So what are some of the impacts that we're seeing in Hawaii and needing to plan for? Yeah, well, I think one of the greatest impacts that we're seeing right now is sea level rise and its effect on exacerbating coastal erosion that we already have. So an example is Waikiki Beach, which already depends on large imports of sand to renourish the beach on a periodic basis. Which costs millions and millions of dollars. It's very expensive, that's right. And sea level rise, a lot of other beaches are running too, and sea level rise just exacerbates this, increases the rate of that erosion and can cause inland flooding as well. So a lot of people think that sea level rise will only overwash roadways and the beaches right at the coast, but it actually raises the water table in back of the coastal development and can push up through the storm drains, which are connected to the ocean. So fresh water can actually inundate areas, pockets throughout the inland areas of Waikiki and other places. It already does this periodically in Mapunapuna as Dr. Chip Pletcher likes to point out. And also in Waikiki, because we've had several instances in the last few years of having to close the beach because our storm drains can't accommodate the drainage. That's right. And they've overflowed and it's caused tremendous pollution and really impacting the tourism industry. That's right. And so sea level rise just means this will get worse. There's sort of no question about that at this point. Just we're not sure exactly how fast that will happen. But the coastal geology group at the University of Waikiki has modeled this and they have maps showing one foot, two feet of sea level rise. And even after just one foot, which is a middle of the road projection for 2050, you see pockets of Waikiki being flooded persistently or at least periodically all over that district. And then another thing that climate change does with tourism in particular is to change the ocean chemistry and to affect our koa reef ecosystems, which is a major draw for tourism here. Divers, people going to Hanama Bay to snorkel and see the reef and see the fish. And it's all connected. The fish depend on the reef for their food source and so if we lose the reef, we lose fish as well. Right. And we've seen that actually in my lifetime in Hawaii. It's been absolutely astounding where in my favorite snorkel spots, how many fish are no longer there. And certainly the total number is just way down. It's really quite disconcerting. You hear everyone talk about it all the time. We have a coral reef slide, I think, that indicates what some of these impacts are. Yeah. So this actually shows bleaching events projected for 2030 on the top half and 2050 on the lower half. And you can see that the bleaching events become much more frequent in 2050 as we go. And by 2050, scientists are thinking that the reef will not have time between these bleaching events to recover. And so that might be a tipping point when the reef can no longer recover. Reefs are resilient. I think you recently might have heard that one scientist might have declared the Great Barrier Reef dead. Somebody wrote an obituary for it. It was sort of hyperbole. It was overstating. But it does send the message that we're in great trouble. I saw that a lot of scientists pushed back on that actually and said, no, our reefs are really resilient. And this current bleaching event only affected about 20% of the Great Barrier Reef. Nonetheless, that's 20%. Absolutely. That's pretty astounding. That's a huge worrisome number. And I think we need to be doing the things here in Hawaii to identify what might make reefs more resilient. And that's something that our program can help with in terms of providing information about case studies where reefs have been resilient and what are the factors that contribute to that and what can we do as managers to encourage it. And I know one of our guests on the show, Dr. Ruth Gates is doing intensive research in how to make reefs more resilient. That's right. And so the work you're doing is extremely important because you're providing her and everyone else working on this issue with the data. So as you're making calls for the collection of that data, people really need to heed that call and provide you the information because it's impacting all of the research that's being done out there. That's right. Absolutely. We are always looking to make new partnerships and new connections with researchers who are doing this work and help them to get their word out more broadly and to translate it for a broader audience in coastal resource management or business or whatever audience might be in need of this type of information. So we hope to make those connections more in the future. And I know that you're doing a call right now for information for people to tell you the kinds of information they're looking for. Yes, that's right. So we're doing a survey right now. It's informal, so it's not a scientific survey per se as you might think of in the social sciences. But it's really just to get the public's input. Anybody living in Hawaii or the U.S. affiliated Pacific Islands who might have an interesting climate change and wants to know what's going to happen, what is already happening in their environments and in their areas of work. We'd like them to take our survey. It only takes about three minutes. And this is a way that we're gathering input for our next assessment, which will be released probably in the next year upcoming. And that survey can be found on... It can be found on our website at perka.org. It's P-I-R-C dot O-R-G. P-I-R-C, not A. P-I-R-C A dot O-R-G. Thank you. There is an A. Good, good, good. P-I-R-C A dot O-R-G. Terrific. And I know you brought us some interesting slides on the sea level rise, too. Let's take a look at those. That's right. So this is a compilation of sea level data and future projections, dating all the way back to 1700 and then projecting out to 2100. This is from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is a global assessment of climate change and the knowledge about climate change from our scientific data. And as you can see, there are two scenarios. One is the red line going up. That's a high emissions and a high greenhouse gas concentrations scenario. And then the low one is in blue. So even with significantly curbing our greenhouse gas emissions and eliminating greenhouse gases from our atmosphere, we still see some level of sea level rise. But this scenario can sort of be our goal if we're thinking about preventing the worst impacts of sea level rise. Now, that raises the question, though. If we're lowering CO2 levels, some people say, and there's still sea level rise, they might be poking holes in our climate change claims. Why is that happening? That's a good point. I mean, I think there's a very large difference between about a foot of sea level rise or less and three feet, one meter of sea level rise. There's a huge difference for our Atul nations, for example, which live within, do much of their lives and have much of their resources in between those two levels in terms of sustenance, fishing, and house sites and livelihoods. So I think it makes a big difference when we talk about numbers. And the global agreement negotiated the Paris Agreement last year, which now has actually gone into effect with the threshold of the right number of countries representing the right number of global emissions signing on to it. I think that just happened in the last month. That was an opportunity to really hash out the numbers and their importance in terms of warming and in terms of carbon dioxide emissions. So even though we have, in some success scenarios for lowering CO2 levels in the atmosphere, sea level rise continues. And the science of that doesn't mean that we need to stop curbing CO2. It's very important to continue because sea level rise happens as a result of other climate impacts, not just the CO2 levels. Absolutely, yes. The CO2 levels actually drive the warming and drive the other impacts that we're seeing. So getting the carbon dioxide numbers right and tracking our emissions and tracking how much we are decreasing those as we follow the Paris Agreement and as countries shift to more renewable energy technologies and shift to a different type of economy then we need to be tracking those levels to make sure we're on track to meet those very important worldwide goals. Well, I know that some of the ways in which this acidification warming, sea level rise is impacting not just the humans but the different wildlife. We did mention the corals, but there's also the monk seals. And our monk seal population has gotten down to 1,000 at best estimate. What's happening to the monk seals as the ocean warms and the sea level rises? So the unfortunate thing about climate change in Hawaii and the US-affiliated Pacific Islands is that the places where we're seeing the hardest impacts tend to be in the ocean and at the coastline and up high in our mountain ecosystems. And those tend to be the places where we have the most rare and endangered native species. So species like monk seals, like Liza and Albatras, others that are unique to Hawaii and the Pacific Islands live in these very narrow bands of elevation. And on coral atolls like in Papahano, Mokuakea, National Marine Monument, wave overwash and sea level inundation is a major concern. At the upper elevations, avian malaria, which is expanding because of temperatures warming at higher elevations and mosquito population expanding its range upward, that has a concern for our native bird population. So kind of on either end of the Maokatumakai spectrum, we have major climate change issues that are affecting our native ecosystems. All right, so the circle of all marine life, all terrestrial life including ourselves is being broken in a nutshell by climate change impacts and you're helping to provide those assessments of how that is happening and what the data is so that we can all look at that data and figure out how to mitigate climate change, but also how to adapt and be more resilient because some of those changes have already happened or are happening and we need to respond to those. So it's really important work you're doing. Thank you. I want you to remind our listeners again of where to find your survey so they can go on and participate in it. Absolutely. So I'll try to actually get the name right this time. It's the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment and it's at perkapirca.org. And I know you have several partners at Perka and Perka is part of the East West Center, right? Perka is actually a collaboration of many different entities. So I work at the East West Center but we have a lot of participation from federal agencies including NOAA, the USGS, the US Fish and Wildlife Service and the Department of Interior. We also have partners at the university and its research centers including the International Pacific Research Center which does a lot of the future modeling for climate change. At the East West Center and the University of Hawaii I'm also part of a collaboration called the Pacific RISA, the Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program which is an interdisciplinary research program combining social and physical sciences to look at all different aspects of climate change. And so it's really amazing that we've had so many contributors and it's also been one of the reasons for our success. Well, it's terrific that we have so many people working on this really important issue and that highlights why it's important. I'm really pleased that you came and joined us today and I hope we'll have you back again. Thank you for joining us at Sustainable Hawaii and we'll see you next week, Tuesday at noon. Aloha.