 Welcome to another International Relations Capsule for Shankar IS Academy. We have already devoted two or three capsules to developments in Afghanistan. Things have been changing very rapidly, sometimes unexpectedly, and it has now reached a very critical stage when we can think in terms of looking at the future of Afghanistan. There are very clear indications as to who has won and who has lost, but there are no clear winners or losers in this war. Everybody realizes that it was the United States which lost the war. That was very clear from the beginning because the United States could not have continued there longer and it was in their interest to somehow withdraw. Therefore, things had started moving even at the time of Barack Obama and it was finally completed by President Biden. So if it was a soft arrangement by which there was a government, even with the participation of the Taliban and the Americans had withdrawn with all their supporters having been evacuated, it would have been a normal withdrawal for the United States. But this looked like a defeat for various reasons. First, they announced certain dates and then did not keep them. They suddenly decided to go. The crucial thing that they did not do was all their supporters, all those who worked for the US government, running into thousands, were not evacuated and they would certainly be the target of the Taliban government. That was a big mistake. Secondly, they did not wait till some kind of an arrangement was made so that either Mr. Ghani or somebody else would have taken power for a short period when the United States would have left and they would not have been dragged into the successive negotiations or decision-making. They could be very impartial. But in all these, United States failed and the general impression around the world is that this has been a big setback for the United States as well as for Mr. Biden. Of course, President Trump has made use of the opportunity to demand resignation by Biden and this has been considered as a great insult to the great civilization of the United States and people say no wonder Afghanistan is the graveyard of empires. But the consequence of this as well as we can see from now is the United States would lose its influence in the region as a whole. Of course, they had good relations with Pakistan. They had good relations with other smaller countries in South Asia. Of course, India, it has a very good relationship, Bangladesh. So United States was a benign power in the region so far. But this has affected its image of a benign powerful nation to which the countries in the region would have looked up to. And that of course will come back to the situation about India and what will happen to us on the count of this. But so there is this feeling that the US has lost the war despite the fact that they fought for 20 years and also spent more than a trillion dollars lost thousands of lives, not only of Americans but also NATO partners, the Afghan people, the Taliban. So many lives have been lost and what have you got back? You got back the Taliban. So you fight for 20 years and get the Taliban back with all these consequences. And that is why it looked very foolish on the part of the United States to have led to this situation. But the United States is the leading power in the world and everyone will have to reconcile with the United States and United States decision making will have much to do about what happens to the recognition of the new government, the assistance to that government reconstruction and all this US will play a role. That way US has not lost but the impression is created like that because of certain lacunae in the implementation of that decision. As the Taliban want, this is another question everybody believes that they have in the sense that we are very close to forming a government. But more than a week has passed and then why is it that there is no government even today? So this is a question mark. This shows the situation being still rather uncertain. It is true that they are in occupation of the palace. There is hardly any resistance. At least there was no resistance initially. But now we have reports of resistance in the Panjshir Valley where Mr. Masood, the younger Masood is holding forth and Taliban has now dispatched some soldiers to fight the dissidents. But the Panjshir Valley has never under the occupation of the Taliban and therefore they do not know what kind of resistance they will get. And there has been some resistance in other parts of the country also, not specifically against the Taliban but basically nationalist demonstrations, carrying of the Afghan flag on the street and various things. But so far Taliban has reacted with restraint because they have so many constraints in the formation of the government and the future and therefore they are not done in the rush even though there have been reports of the women being shot at, of course people being shot as they rush towards the airport to catch the evacuation flights and so on. So there is a mix of restraint as well as their true colors you can see in the process. The encouraging sign is that they are also talking to other groups which are not entirely part of the Taliban. Taliban itself is a group of several terrorist groups, not so terrorist groups etc. And therefore anything can join in in the process provided they get the leadership and the others abide by their decisions and their plans to run the Afghanistan. But the main problem is the fundamentalist approach. They have been trying to play that down saying that we will be only following the Sharia law. That sounds fair enough because there are other countries with the Sharia law. But with the experience of 1996 to 2001, people are not very sure what they mean by the Sharia law. The Sharia law can be interpreted in various ways and Taliban have not created a manifesto before they won the war. That is what they could have done, explained their policy and how what Sharia laws will apply and how it will be implemented. But one thing is clear that the life and welfare of 14 million women are in danger and that is a danger that everybody senses. Though they have given some instances of women appearing on television and they are being asked to come back to the offices. But what they say and what they do, there is a huge gap. So obviously this whole situation or they're discussing and trying to get as much support as possible, as much recognition as possible from other countries, all these are open questions. In fact, the last time when they ruled from 1996 to 2001, they had only recognition of three countries, Pakistan, UAE and Saudi Arabia. And so they could run without any international recognition. It was possible for them because they don't function in traditional means. Their funding comes from drug trafficking and various other illegal activities. And therefore they could manage. And since then, these 20 years, they have evolved in many ways. The younger people have joined, they are more tech savvy, so they know what is going on around the world. So they have certain ambition about recognition and other countries, their opportunities to go abroad, all these are factors. So on the one side, the traditionalist, the hardcore fundamentalist fighting for their own survival and wanting to establish a certain strict discipline. And on the other hand, there is a certain flexibility on the part of younger people who have their own aspirations. But all this is still in a flux. And therefore, we do not know whether they can benefit from the changes that are going to bring in. Because there is a great fear that this will be the same as the past. And therefore whatever they say and do will be very closely observed by the international community. Many observers feel that the ultimate winner is neither the United States nor the Taliban, but Pakistan. Because we know very well that Pakistan has been guiding and leading the Taliban's struggle. And particularly after the date of date was announced, Pakistan virtually taking the lead in advising the Taliban and also contributing in whatever way they can in order to make it easier for them to come to power. Of course, Pakistan's objective is basically to counter India and their basic approach is to somehow get cashmere for themselves. So if that is their main aim in life, they will naturally try to use the Taliban for that purpose. But there will be a lot of unemployed terrorists in the Taliban after the government is formed. And therefore, it will be useful, it will be possible for them to use the Taliban terrorists in general and cashmere together with other terrorists in the region. And that of course is our major threat. But Pakistan is already considered to be a country which supports terrorists. You know about the, that they are being what is called the gray list of countries who support terrorism. They are not in the white or the black list, but the gray list in the sense that they are under suspicion. And therefore any support that they give to Taliban will itself be suspect. And therefore they cannot bring any legitimacy to Taliban. And one other thing that has happened in the last few days is that there are some comments, observations suggesting that the Taliban is not all that terroristic that they have other good points about them. Quite a few western newspapers and observers are building up kind of whitewashing the Taliban as well, saying that they have some positive elements of that they are not to be afraid of. And there is this tendency also there, which adds to a little more uncertainty. Even in our own newspapers, people have started reporting that after all, Taliban was not all that bad. So whether there will be a combination of support on account of the so-called changes and also the serious threat it poses to women, anti-human rights, etc., will come together in this process, we do not know. Much depends on what kind of coalition is formed at the end. The fact that Mr. Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah were modest and people for reconciliation are also in these conversations. But at the same time, that is the extreme, fundamental is like the Akhani network, which is nothing but the creation of the ISI of Pakistan. They are also involved in these conversations. So how are they going to find a common platform is very difficult to say. So when you talk about the future of Afghanistan, we are not in a position even to say what the nature of that government will be. Who will be ruling Kabul? We can only look at the straws in the wind. We know that the Americans had a setback. The Chinese are very keen to jump in and Pakistan is very excited that they have now a very strong influence in Afghanistan. The Taliban itself is quite uncertain as to what kind of policies they will follow. But the signals are like, for example, when they heard about the rebellion in the Banshee Valley, they did not say, okay, let them be. They sent the fighters there. Then the element, of course, is the so-called Afghan population. The Afghan population often we refer to as a pro-American population because the Afghan forces, Ghani's government and they are very concerned on what will be their future. And that is what we saw reflected in the activities at the airport where people were trying to run away because they thought that the Taliban will have the details of all these people who worked for the United States, as contractors, as guards, as gardeners, whatever. And the United States had the responsibility to take them away. They should have taken them away before they withdrew. Then they would have had all the facilities. Now we are in a situation where they may have to bring in more troops in order to take these people out. Of course, the Americans are still not sure why the Afghan forces did not fight the Taliban. They did not fight even once in spite of the fact that they had all these arms and very sophisticated ammunition. But perhaps they were not able to handle them. The Americans were handling them for them. And just leaving that as a booty for the Taliban may not have any value, but they may not be able to use them. They may be still happy with their old AK-47 rifles inherited from the Soviet Union. So that may be a factor. But there is also suspicion that the Taliban may have earned some goodwill during the period of occupation. Because many of them looked at American forces, not as saviours as sides, but as occupation forces. And the Americans were not spread friendly all over Afghanistan. Therefore, there were same some areas where Taliban used to run the government justice system. And they were quite generous to the people and not very harsh. So that may have been another reason why the Afghans, the people who were supportive of the United States, why they did not put up a big fight. But all these details we will get to know only by and by. So the biggest danger in the future of Afghanistan the way it is shaping up is the China-Pakistan Taliban access. Of course, China was not particularly close to the Taliban during these 20 years. They did not always act in the interest of the Taliban. And they did not work against the Americans the extent they could have done so. Because they probably felt that challenging United States in Afghanistan may not be the interest of the US-China relations in the long run. That's probably why they were restrained. But now they have the advantage that if the Americans have left and Pakistanis have come to the forefront, they can cooperate with Pakistan. And first of all, strengthen the Belt and Road Initiative so that they can have complete sway over the whole region after India, Afghanistan and beyond Pakistan and Central Asia. So there will be considerable financing available for Afghanistan in this process because it will be a continuity of the Belt and Road Initiative. Of course, they will end up in huge debts. But as of now, they will get the hospitals, they will get the schools, they will get various other facilities that people are aspiring for. And that is going to be the big role in China. But China has another interest. China already holds a large percentage of what are called the rare metals, which are necessary in the most modern technology. And these are very small quantities available in certain parts of Africa, now certain parts of Afghanistan. And therefore, they already have a certain control over these materials. And that gives them an advantage with regard to their own technological development, the AI and various artificial intelligence and withdrawn technology and various other things. So they expect, according to many reports, that they would have a big haul of these materials which are available, not yet exploited. And they'll be useful to them and that will strengthen their defense forces, strengthen their technology and make them ready for a battle for dominance in the future. So the time for the Taliban in cooperation with Pakistan is definitely a victory for the Chinese. And they may even become somewhat rigid. On the question of disengagement from Ladakh area. So India has two fronts to look after. Of course, we had these two fronts, Zabi Pakistan, as well as China, both nuclear weapon states. But that gets accentuated. The questions arise more and more on what happens. But the success of the Taliban in forming a government will depend on their ability to remove poverty and hunger. Because Afghanistan is not in its best form at the moment. The money that used to flow from the United States was completely stopped. And will the Chinese be able to support the Afghan people to that extent? Is a question mark. And that's probably one of the reasons why the Taliban wants more recognition and more assistance from other countries. Russia is a surprise because our foreign minister, because rather late in the day, but he visited Iran and Moscow and also Tashkent. And even some of the countries in Central Asia who are with China in the sense they are members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Of course, India and Pakistan are also members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. But that organization is becoming more and Russia is also part of it. What is becoming more of of a Chinese outfit. And so, well, that organization may be used. And therefore, the influence of the Taliban might go on to the Central Asia. So, certainly, it is a victory to them. But how does Russia see all this? It looks like Russia has at least entity decided to back the Taliban. And that is of course to oppose their traditional opponents, which is the United States. And the United States is weak. Who is supposed to be more happy than Russia? And India getting closer to the United States is not a matter of great joy to the Russians. And therefore, they have been showing certain amount of distance from India, even though we continue to import all our military equipment from there. And we have an operation program. We are working in Vladivostok and other areas of Russia. And so, there is no dark of operation between India and Russia. But politically, they have been sending some signals. But they could have held back this open, diffusive reaction to Taliban. They could have been more restrained. And so, that is a surprise. And so is the surprise of Iran. Iran is also indicated that they are willing to accept. Of course, they would want a civilized government and no terrorist groups to be involved in the government, etc. So, but Iran also was not very cautious. They also rushed to the support of the Taliban. So in all this, Russia also and Iran, because remember when the foreign minister went to Iran, he spoke about the consensus that existed in the 1990s among these three countries, you know, Russia on Soviet Union at that time, then Iran and India. But the Iranians did not react to that. They did not say that consensus still remains. They know that the American factor had altered it. So, they're weighing their options, obviously. Nobody has formally recognized, because they're no government. No government is asking for recognition. And they're all keeping their options open. But we know the lineup. We really do not have with the United States becoming less and less interested because of their experience. Then who else is there to oppose the Taliban or to at least restrain them? And there, India seems to be somewhat isolated in that sense. If you look at Europe, there is greater hope there because Russians may not want to impose their ideas on Taliban, on Europeans, because they are looking for greater recognition in Europe and may not act against the interests of, in any case, the Europeans may not act against the interests of the United States. Though they are all very upset about what the Americans did, French President, then Angela Merkel, the Chancellor of Germany, they all been very upset that they were consulted. Final decisions were not given to them. And when the situation went out of control, there was nothing that they could do. So, they are very critical. So, they may hold back, they may not recognize the Taliban in a hurry, but they also have not considered the American action earlier respectable. So, this has to emerge. And there is a certain amount of allergy towards China in Europe and they have gone slow on some of the projects and trade, etc. with China. So, Europe is an area which gives them some hope of collaboration, discussion and cooperation. Of course, our problem is definitely that we have always been on the other side of Taliban, whether it was during the Soviet occupation, during the Taliban government, all during the American occupation. All through, we have been supportive of those who stood against the Taliban. And we have had hardly any contacts with them, even though we know that we are in touch with them, we were in Doha, we have conveyed our concerns to them, all this we know. But there is no indication, except some soft words that Taliban used about India saying that we are grateful for the things that India has done for us. We are not going to destroy those, the parliament building and various other things. And we will not target any particular country. But we know that many Indians were questioned outside the airport before they left. And also, there are indications that they have been collecting the information of the Afghans who have gone on the India flight. Of course, Indian embassy has withdrawn their two opinions. Some in India still feel that we should have left the embassy there so that we could contact and discuss issues with them, like the Russians have not gone, Iranians have not gone, Chinese have not gone. But our situation is very different. And I believe that the decision taken by the government of this India is quite right, that we can always go back if the situation is normal. But the inconvenience is being caused to those Afghans who are wanting to come to India on a visit or bring their relatives, some relatives are already in India. So who will give them the visas, etc., or other documents? Well, it's all being in the new technological age, e visas are possible. Then the other concern is what happens to Muslims who want to come back, come to India from Afghanistan. We have the Citizens Act, which has not been fully implemented. But that may restrict our freedom to bring in all those who ask for asylum in India. And we can only get them as refugees because we cannot settle them in India. And we'll have a heavy price to pay in terms of expenses and maintaining these people, all these flights and others. And we hope that several organizations, international migration organization or United Nations refugees, Commissioner and other programs will help India if many of them stay back in India for a considerable time. So the immediate questions are, number one, the evacuation process. President Biden has expressed concern about it and he said that this is the most difficult evacuation process the United States has ever faced. And he also said that we are not sure of the outcome and they have approached several other countries to give them temporary asylum. And they have been successful in several countries helping them out. After all, United States means people will come to collaborate. So rather than these seven is going to meet the most powerful countries in the world, including of course the United States and Japan and others. And they're going to discuss Afghanistan. And there there are some shades of opinion. Some of them believe that they may have to go for sanctions against Taliban if they continue with their terrorist policies. But again, they will give them time to see how they shape up and what other kind of needs they have. So human rights and economic management, if they are able to follow certain principles and show some stability, there may not be sanctions immediately from G7. But this will be a matter to be proved by them. So sanctions may not be supported by G7 at this point. And there is a little time, but how long this time will be, because the longer Taliban takes time to form a government with other like-minded parties, and also with some neutral people who have helped in the past, the more difficult it will be for Taliban to establish itself. And also there is this danger of the protest movements gaining momentum. Suppose the Taliban is not able to take back the Panjshir valley. It's quite possible that this may spread to other regions. And so it is a tense situation. So it is in their interest to see that as quickly as possible, they must form a government and try and seek support from others with a modest, with a moderate and benign agenda. And that whether Taliban will be able to do, we do not know. So if we rush to a government and things go wrong, then we will go back to square one, the situation which was there before the Soviets came into Afghanistan. So challenging times for Afghanistan, for Taliban, for Pakistan, United States, and more than anything else, anything else for India. So that is the concern we have. But we have no option but to wait and see. We have made the gestures that we are willing to talk and cooperate with Taliban. But I do not know what kind of formal reply we have got. So we have done all the right thing, but Taliban knows that India will be their main opponent if they don't refine themselves. But public opinion in India, there are some people who for various reasons seem to think that Taliban is not such a bad option. Anyway, but I do not subscribe to that. So we have to face the situation. And so future Taliban is still uncertain. There are lots of clouds. You don't see very little silver lining. But this is an inevitable situation which we have to face. And I suppose with the kind of emotional and military and political strengths that India has, we shall overcome. Thank you. No, the US cannot do it by itself, but it has to go to the United Security Council. There's a sanctions committee of which we are the chairman, India is the chairman of the sanctions committee of the Security Council. So there is a process. But when you read all these articles, one goes mad. There are so many articles saying so many things. It is very difficult to reconcile the different positions. And the material is so much, in fact, I wrote somewhere that this Afghan situation is contributing to climate change. So much reams and reams of paper for which tons and tons of trees are being cut. So that is another negative contribution of the Afghan situation. So many, many ideas are floating. And we have to look at them, try to use our own intelligence to see whether this is because what is the point in bringing the Akhani into this because Pakistani outfit and they will not be considered moderate by any other partners. So it may be difficult. So I don't think Americans would have made that promise. That is quite obvious. It was partly vengeance, partly to ensure that it doesn't happen again. But as they went along, all those, you know, actually they threw out the government of Taliban, I mean, in 1990, in 2001, very easily in the first few days. Then what happened? But why did they have to stay on? Because there was resistance. And the resistance assumed so many various shapes and sizes. And before they realized it, 20 years had passed and once million dollars were wasted, were spent and all that. And nothing seems good to have happened either to the United States or to Afghanistan in the process. This is like turning the clock back 2001. So it was not very wise. But then international politics, geopolitics, like that, it's not always very logical because there are so many actors involved and nobody knows exactly what actor expects from the conflict. But the origin is very clear and the objective was also very clear. Once they realized that they would be able to remove the government, they should have somehow withdrawn at that time itself. Add any other interest, economic interest, etc., we do not know. But this will all come out later. Okay? All the best. Thank you very much.