 Okay, very good morning, Monday 17th of February, so hope everyone had a good rainy weekend. And as per usual on a Monday morning, I look ahead for the week, what have we got on the agenda? Certainly quite a few headlines to get through this morning as well. But one thing, just to kick things off, to stress is really two things. One, Monday today is a US holiday, so it is President's Day in America, which means markets are closed, shortened hours of electronic trade. So something to just bear in mind when we get into the afternoon session. And then also it's half-term. I'm not sure if you guys are commuted in this morning, but I would say that the general traffic on my commute on the way in was less than half as normal. And that is quite a reflection for generally markets, because in UK, for example, you do actually see a lot of people out of the workplace and that can have also ramifications just generally on volumes. But mainly it's about the US afternoon, which is a holiday, so do bear that in mind with your strategies for today. It could be slow going, barring anything unexpected a bit later on. For this morning though, obviously we're going to update on the virus, quite a lot of news about China over the weekend to get you up to speed on. Also Japanese GDP came out and that's caught a few headlines. A quick word on the UK economic data and then a review for the week as a whole. But getting things off to a start, let's have a look at the charts more broadly speaking. And equity index futures are on a positive footing. Subsequently, the US 10 year down just a touch about four ticks on the bottom right and gold down about three and a half dollars. So some moderate risk on type of environment. This does come despite a very eyebrow-raising Japanese economy contraction of some 6.3%. And I want to kick off with that actually because generally when I come into work, one of the things that I do is I scroll through Twitter just to get a general sense of some of the main headlines and what people are saying, opinions and so on. And there was a lot of negative kind of interpretation from this print where Japanese GDP overnight the release showed the economy shrunk by 6.3% annual rate versus expectations of a fall of just 3.8% in the fourth quarter after last autumn's rise in consumption tax impact, weak global demand and typhoon disruption all weighing on their economy. So as I said, when I was coming in this morning, a lot of people kind of talking this up almost in a sensational way about how catastrophic it is. But you know, context is king in this respect. And one of the things I wanted to just look at was this, which is the picture of the last, what five, six years of Japanese growth. So this is Japan's real GDP annualized. And you can see the last time they did a previous tax hike on this left hand side was going back into kind of Q2, the impact of 2014. So you can see here, quite similar to what we've had. So, you know, if you came in this absolutely blind, you'd be thinking, wow, this is a spectacularly bad print for growth. However, there's three main reasons here. One in particular, the rise in the consumption tax impact and it's to a similar degree of what we saw previously. Also, just generally in the environment, the weak global demand as I said, and also the disruptions from weather of which they had over the survey period, all contributing to this. The other thing as well is about, what does this mean then for Japan going forward? Well, expectations obviously rife that the Prime Minister Shinza Abe after only about two months ago, adding a large amount of fiscal stimulus to the systems, probably going to have to consider going for round two in order to support growth because we haven't yet mentioned the virus, of course. And then the Bank of Japan. This is the Governor Koroda he said in local press overnight that would consider more easing if the virus impact becomes big. So that then leads us on to the Chinese situation. Now these numbers, just to give you an update, total confirmed cases north of 70,000 total deaths now just above or just under 1800. Now, one of the main things though that's been happening is this. And actually, if you look at this chart, this is the CSI 300 index in China. So kind of the biggest companies in China. And what we've got here is the entire index has now recouped all of its losses from when we originally closed for the Lunar New Year. So we closed the Lunar New Year basically where that green arrow is here. And after we had that big gap down in markets, you remember in China, on the back of the catch-up given the extended closure of their markets to contain that virus in Hubei province, we've now recoup all of those losses. And in fact, overnight Shanghai, or I'd say Shanghai Composite, local markets elsewhere in the region, Hong Kong, and Hangsang all up, up about 2% in fact overnight. So despite numbers, obviously the virus is getting worse in that respect, markets are more focused on what is gonna be the kind of reaction by the government and in what ways are they gonna try to counteract this by propping up the government. Now, China's government pumped cash into the financial system, they've trimmed money market rates, they've offered targeted tax cuts. So China said on Sunday, it will enact more efficient stimulus measures despite widening fiscal gap, including lowering corporate taxes. The stock regulator in China on Friday said it would ease some rules for firms seeking to raise extra capital through share placements including shortening lockup periods to benefit smaller cap firms. And President Xi called for encouraging vehicle purchases as part of efforts to help the economy last night, local auto manufacturers rose more than 10% on the back of that comment from Xi. Also within the region, Singapore has promised strong package of budget measures, central banks from the Philippines to Thailand to Malaysia have all been cutting interest rates. So it kind of explains a lot of why markets are fairly calm at the moment despite the kind of numbers that are accumulating at this present point in time and the kind of general mainstream media and how they are reporting this in a slightly more different, more sensational way. This was a graphic that I shared in my kind of week ahead piece that I've sent out by email to all you guys. But all of the things I've just mentioned were just the stuff that China was saying at the weekend. But if you go all the way back to basically the beginning of the month, this isn't the first kind of fiscal tweak that China's looked to do from injecting large amounts of liquidity into the system through open market operations to supporting key sectors via easing of monetary policy. You know, it's kind of that mantra of whatever it takes. And at the moment, that's why the markets remain fairly sanguine about this whole virus issue despite obviously the underlying long-term economic impact. If this is what's happening, the way markets are perceiving this at least for the moment is almost this V-shaped recovery. A big hit to Chinese growth obviously on the impact of what we've had through late Jan February. However, given these measures, a substantial comeback on the period thereafter. Moving on then, a few other headlines I wanted to share. Obviously a lot of talk about OPEC in recent week or so given the low nature of which oil had been trading given the impact on consumption from China and so the net demand on crude oil. And I just wanted to have a look at crude oil again. This is that familiar chart, which I've looked at a number of times, which is marking up quite a few of the key price points. So if I just remove my camera for one second, you're about to see the whole thing. So as you can see here, oil prices have stabilized and this goes hand in hand with what we've just been talking about, about the overall market's perception at least for the moment, about the handling of the virus being a fairly contained one for the time being. So the recovery in the equity markets, the all-time highs in US stocks, the full reversal in the mainland in Chinese equities, the oil market reflects that same shared interpretation. Remember, we were threatening around a key level of support from around the summer of 2019. We did get a little bit below there, but we've bounced now a decent amount, pretty much just over $2 back up towards north of a 52 handle for the moment. So what does this mean? Well, from an OPEC point of view, I would say, remember what we were talking about with the strategy of OPEC, as I've got marked up here on the right-hand side. Remember, about a week ago, they were verbalizing the necessity to cut the current supply agreement by additional 600,000. And that in tandem with the general, let's say, leveling off or, let's say, more moderate rise in virus cases has been enough to turn the market around. Again, for now, we shall see how long-lasting that becomes. So the fact that headlines would suggest then that there's fading hope for an emergency OPEC plus meeting, I think absolutely right. If I was OPEC, particularly if I was Russia, absolutely no need now to have an emergency meeting. Their OPEC official meeting is scheduled for the beginning of March. That's only about three weeks away from current date. So I would say if market prices continue to bounce as they are, absolutely no reason then. You can almost rearm your ammunition for talking up, again, potential action if we were to come back down again. So if I were them, I would keep them for now and save it for another day. This is just a graph to reflect that. This is looking at the price over the last couple of months of oil. And you can see all has actually had its best run this year as the coronavirus hit nerves of somewhat calmed. So quite a substantial pullback from where we were just through pretty much most of the period of January. Skipping forward then, let's talk about a little bit for the week. And just wanted to mention the UK. I do talk about this in my kind of macro overview in the week ahead piece that I've written at the weekend. That is, I'll share that now, that article in your chat that you can have a read when it's very quiet later on this afternoon. So the first things first, obviously the pound did see a bit of strength towards the back end of last week on the resignation of Sadji Javid. The idea of being that Rishi Sunak will be more aligned with number 10 and look to provide a kind of Trumpian style stimulus perhaps to markets. Whether or not that is the case, I don't think you're gonna get any immediate details on that. Remember, the budget isn't coming for another couple of weeks. And so I don't think you're gonna get much in the way of real concrete details on any type of fiscal changes in that respect this quickly. So I'd say this week then attention terms back to this, which is the economic calendar of events. So you can see here, I'll make this a bit bigger, but this is what's coming out in the UK this week. Tuesday you've got the unemployment rate, average earnings, Wednesday UK CPI, Thursday UK retail sales, and Friday manufacturing the service PMI. So recently what we've had is a bit of a Boris bounce on the securing of that majority government and ability to kind of at least move through the first parts of delivering of Brexit into this transition phase. And that has been warmly received in terms of economic data. I'm not sure if you saw, I think it was right move, house prices again, housing data has seen a very sharp snap back higher on the back of renewed confidence on inquiries into home purchases. But generally speaking, the way I perceive this economic data is is that I don't really foresee that momentum behind the kind of election lift long lasting. And so this data, I think it's going to be quite interesting because sterling currency, as we know, despite the rally last week, still remains relatively precarious in terms of to the downside. And in the world of generally dollar strength at the moment where US economic data is being pretty decent, sterling or cable like Euro dollar, I think it's quite interesting to continue to watch both with generally quite downbeat fundamentals, both in the Eurozone for the Euro, for the pound UK, because I think the data and also the impasse of generally Brexit negotiations will outweigh until we get at least any more details, this whole kind of belief about Sonak coming out with some sort of fiscal bazooka anytime soon. On that point of Brexit, this is happening today. So the UK Brexit negotiator is going to be giving a headline speech a bit later on today. I'm not sure if you recognize this chat or not, but that's David Frost, the UK Brexit negotiator will set out Britain's goals for talks over its future relationship with the European Union in a speech on Brussels today. We know the current status here. The two sides are very far apart on a number of points. So it'd be interesting to see the current status on those talks later. This was something as well. I mean, I won't go into it too much, but I did want to mention it because you have the Nevada caucuses happening on the weekend. This comes after Bernie Sanders won New Hampshire and Pete Buttigieg won Iowa a few weeks ago. So this is the democratic kind of race for nomination for the presidential pursuit. If you like going into November of this year, and I just wanted to show what the current markets are predicting, and Bernie Sanders is outright favorite at the moment to win the democratic nomination. Whether or not that's going to remain the case yet to be seen, the Nevada caucus, I think is a bit of a moot point. The biggest one is Super Tuesday. I talk about it a little bit in the week ahead piece, but Super Tuesday, for those not aware of it, is when 16 states or areas basically put forward their nominees. And so that's the big one. People like Michael Bloomberg, the business billionaire, he hasn't taken part at all in any of the caucuses so far. He's kind of saving it all for the big day on Super Tuesday, which is kind of the real flagship event. And whoever comes out on that will be in a very strong place. But my overall assessment of this type of information is for one, this really is not that important for markets, generally speaking, day to day for the moment. And then two, one thing that's quite interesting here is that the more center ground democratic people, so Buttigieg or Klobuchar or Biden, they are all basically fighting with one another, which means there's no real shared consensus within the party behind who to back in the center ground, which by default then is lifting more and more the chances of Bernie Sanders, who is more of an outright socialist and has clarity at least in that political view. So yeah, something to be aware of, it's getting a lot of US media attention, but I just wanted to cover that off. Okay, for the week, other things to look out for and the final parts. So yeah, today, US holiday, President's Day, so no Treasury trade, NISI as well, closed and short electronic trade on CME Globex, so very quiet this afternoon I'm sure. And then going into the overnight, you get the RBA minutes, so if you're looking at the Aussie, then you get the commencement of the UK data on Tuesday on the job side. Two of the biggest earnings reports to look out for pre-market respectively in the US, it's going to be in the brick and mortar retailer, Walmart, well I should say brick and mortar, more and more they're trying to switch into a little bit more to track behavioral changes onto the online space, so see how they fare. Still very much a sizable company. And then UK earnings, FTSE giant, HSBC reports pre-market tomorrow. On Wednesday, and this is really, there's three central banks minutes coming out this week, the RBA tonight, you've got the Fed FMC minutes on Wednesday night, you've got the ECB minutes on Thursday. For the Fed and the ECB, I'm not really expecting much to be honest, and I don't think they're going to be particularly market moving events, but nonetheless, probably warrants at least watching just to see how the land lies, particularly with some of the decisions we've had of late with the Fed for the second consecutive month winding down the size of some of their repo operations. And then on Thursday from the UK, you've got retail sales, obviously the CPR on Wednesday, then Friday, a little bit more interesting on the data side, you've got the manufacturing service, PMI, data, these are preliminary readings coming out from Eurozone, UK, and also from the US, as long as with a slew of Fed speakers as well. The final point is Saturday, the G20 conference in Saudi Arabia kicks off, so just giving all the gatherings of the heads of state be interested to see what they have to say about the ongoing impacts of the coronavirus, of course. Okay, that is it from me. Gonna hand you over to Sam, so I'm gonna switch over my screen, and I'm gonna put my camera back on so you can see when he's talking, should come on now. And I wish you guys a good day, thanks very much. Hi guys, good morning. Hope we all had good weekends. We'll have a quick look over a couple of the charts to start off the day. Might as well go for the currencies to begin with here, and you've just got Euro, small range to begin. I mean, this is likely to be the story of the morning, I would suggest. I don't think there's gonna be too much going on, let alone in the afternoon. It's gonna be relatively quiet day. I mean, just quickly flip back to that calendar that Ant was on there, it's gonna be quiet. Obviously, if we go to where we are now, UK right move house price index, not gonna move things very quiet on that front. So looking at that Euro, just on the high that we sort of finished, or the highest point we had around eight o'clock on Friday, that's holding up price action for now. I mean, the low that we had in the early hours of Friday is actually only 14 ticks below that level. So small zone there in the Euro to keep an eye on. If we're looking for that continuation, obviously that zone for that to break through, and we're looking for that to continue all the way down to some of those levels. That, of course, you're gonna wanna have marked up from back in 2017, if we were to see, you know, a bigger push through, you've got initially that low that we're on now, and then Macron's gap around 108, so not actually too far away now from that taking place. If we have a look at this on the longer timeframe, the weekly, you can see those big couple finishes that we had near those lows as well, but right now trading on the futures anyway, if I just move this out of the camera so you guys can see, right on the low that we had at the week of the 24th of April, that has been tested right now, where we finished days and weeks on this point will be really interesting. Is it actually gonna be that we're, you know, not gonna quite get down to that gap area yet? Obviously time will tell, but very key level being traded pretty much right now. For the bulls, if you're gonna get excited, it's probably not gonna be on a Monday, US Bank holiday, but if we can get above some of these levels of resistance from Friday, you might just start to feel a bit more comfortable, but I would suggest until we get really above the higher Friday, the lower, to get long for, you know, a considerable amount of time. The pounds, like the Euro this morning, very quiet. I mean, just have a look at eight o'clock and it's relatively quiet in comparison. I'm not expecting too much. We have had a couple of highs previous sessions to get lower, so it's worth getting on a potential trendline four that you can see. We're also getting squeezed in from the bottom as well. So potential for a bit of a low liquidity spike, higher or lower on that for the pound. Probably overall at the moment would prefer this to put to the upside. So break of the high of the day, the trendline potential trendline, and I should say to target the highs that we did have from last week, which you could call a bit of a double top really with the higher, the fifth in the mix there as well. Aussie dollar, you know, are people still excited about this as a medium term? Long opportunity to have found support on those multi-year lows. We have to wait and see, of course, but looking at this trendline here from the low of the year, we hit that late on Friday. Got to have this on a break of that. Then this market could look to come back down and find a bit of support on where we found quite a lot of support. A lot of buying pressure came in around this area, around 6,700 and keeping on that trendline, guiding price to the upside. Getting on a bit of a trend from the recent highs as well. You can see perfectly getting squeezed here, starting on the fifth, then the 12th and 13th as well. But the Aussie, this is all I'm caring about just now. A couple of might wrap this up and then obviously what I'll do, I'll put it on YouTube and I'm sure Sam will figure itself out. But for the Aussie dollar, keeping a watch on both of those there, really waiting for the break to the upside or the downside, I don't think, for a more considerable movement there. Overnight, the end, it's like to touch, you'll see the shockingly poor data bringing us under pressure. And it's actually, this market again, it's not doing too much, but very key level support right now. It's called that S1, five days double bottom, bit of support there from Thursday as well. So keep a watch on that as well. But the market that I want to switch this over to is the Nikai, which you can see pushed drastically lower in early trade, that's already recovered that move. However, it is some way off those highs that we did have from last week. So maybe we want to keep an eye on how that develops. I think if you're bullish stocks and you want to see Nikai maybe recover, although I don't necessarily think that's going to happen today, really the pivot and these lows from the fifth to seventh and then Thursday, Friday will be levels to keep an eye on there. Moving over to US, just printing a new fresh record high in the S&P. Of course, we're just coming through the European cash open, volume still low. So keep an eye on perhaps what the tax is going to do on that whether we can actually get a decent enough move. Either way today, I'm not too sure. Obviously keep a mark up on that fresh record high and then really we just make this a bit smaller. I'm going to put this on a 60 minute. Now you can see we have got a series of lows to keep an eye on. You can see they're very nicely respected. Starting here, let me just move that out of the way. Back on that low that we had on the ninth, marks up lovely with the 13th and good enough for me on the 14th. That I would want to have that on and that could be a bit of a guide going into the week as well. We're in the timeframe down areas of support around the pivot. You've got previous highs, call that a zone as well from the pivot to 3380. That would be a level that I'd be wanting to focus on as an area where buyers could come in and of course that trend line there that I've just talked about. Oil and gold now. Oil for me, the finish to last week was key getting above $52 and remaining there is going to be even harder. But if we do then the balls are going to be ultimately happy. You can see here just the importance of this level, this zone. I think when you get excited to the upside, $52.50, I think a close above that and you can feel quite comfortable that this market could push relatively then fast on towards sort of the 44, 41, 54, 41 I should say. So keep a watch on oil. I don't expect to get a big move today. Low trade, low volume. But if we can clear out that high for Friday, then I'm a bit more excited about a move to the upside. Couple of trend lines in play potentially for oil starting on those previous days. Worth having on as well. To be honest, are you going to want to get too involved today? Probably not US related markets as well, less so. But just once to keep in our couple of levels that will be key for a week ahead. Gold, after pushing down this morning, just coming back up to test its lows of the day. Just have a quick look elsewhere just to see what's driving prices you at European equities are just coming under a bit of pressure. Their pivot levels, which you'll see in a moment, could act as support. And this pivot level in gold could act as resistance. So just keep a watch on that and how we trade going into the morning. The bigger picture for gold, you can see relatively choppy again for the most part of last week before a push higher on Friday, getting back above 15.85, which was pretty key going back here to the beginning of the month. So again, let's have a watch to see how that plays through. But if we just take a look at 2020 in general, there's no real direction to this market. I'm not really convinced at all overall direction of the next few weeks. I think it's still a wait and see kind of approach. It's safe each day as it comes. The coronavirus is what it is right now and I would more than be happy not to take anything on longer than sort of intraday. Couple of those intraday levels to look at. I do quite like the idea of S1 as a bit of support day if we could have drifted down to there for an opportunity to get long. You can see a couple of these trend lines with me there and of course the S1 and also the higher point before we push higher on Friday as well. So around 15.79 is the level that I like. Of course resistance wise, literally the pivot now and really I'd be paying more attention to 15.84.2 and from the high that we had on Friday we are of course just drifting lower at touch as well. So worth getting on a potential trend line on that. Quick look at the deck just to wrap it up. You can see they're just coming down and touching its pivot level where you'd expect a little bounce on that. The next key level to the downside I'd have marked up on around 13.7.3.1 the high of Friday evening and then it would be S1. But the pivot you'd expect prices to slow down there a bit. Worth keeping a watch on really how this plays and then those safe havens as well certainly gold and the boom which you'd imagine over the last 15 minutes has pushed higher which it has and that's just coming into a bit of resistance. Now you can see here on the boom quite a key level back on Friday afternoon. So you're watching here boom through there decks through the pivot could be the cue for this market to continue the last 15 minutes of trade that low and the boom also the low of Friday and Thursday. So quite a key level there to keep a watch on. As usual, any questions please do let us know. Hope you all have good days not expecting too much. I'll catch you later on. You'll have a good training week.