 Okay, traders, that's one o'clock UK time. Welcome to this afternoon's live analysis session with me, Patrick Munnley. If you can hear me loud and clear, and you can see the tick-mill welcome screen, you can just type a Y in the chat box. So I know we're all good, and we can get going. Okay, so before jumping to today's content, I always want to adhere to the risk disclaimer, understanding that trading any financial instrument carries an inherent amount of risk. You can actually lose more capital than you necessarily have on deposits. More importantly, for today's session, any views represented by me today are solely mine. They are not indicative or representative of tick-mill UK or tick-mill Europe limited. Before jumping to today's charts and discussion, I wanted to start off with a brief introduction to myself for those who have for the first time. I've already graduated from university. I joined a city PLC consulting firm after a couple of years learning the ropes. I left with some colleagues and went on to co-found and successfully exit. A consulting startup post-emerger in late 2004, I then moved on to explore my passion for markets with some capital to play with and some time in my hands. I started day trading or more appropriately day gambling on the S&P 500. After some early beginner's luck, I racked up some solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginner's luck ran out and as the market phase changed, I began to average down into what you could loosely call losing positions, giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six-figure financial hit on my own capital. Say this was a gut-wrenching sobering experience is done to statements. I had to really stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the market. So I decided to get serious about trading and sought out a mentor with an excellent trading record. I worked with my mentor for 18 months to two years. It was a period during which I opt not just my technical game in terms of researching and developing a trading strategy that suited my personality, extensively back and forward testing and then developing a rigorous risk management approach to underpin the strategy. But more importantly during that period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game and probably the most important watershed shift for me was moving from being a highly goal-orientated individual focused on financial gains to more importantly becoming a process-orientated individual. So what does that mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy often during times of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. Once you become process-orientated and have a professional trading mindset and understand the true nature of trading insofar as it really is a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you lose the emotional investments and that hellish emotional rollercoaster of living and dying by the outcome of each trade. I'm no longer concerned about the outcome of individual trades or even strings of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service also delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multimillion dollar portfolio. From 2010, I've also personally mentored over 100 private traders of all experience levels from complete novices through to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reach consistent returns from the markets. I've consulted to numerous brokers and trading education brands, contributing written content, webinars and live presentations on a range of topics of market analysis to trading strategy development and execution. In addition to my fund management and private mentoring, I'm also a resident market expert for TICML providing market and trade analysis. As you can see on the screen here, I provide a daily market outlook which gives you my perspective on the FX majors for the day ahead. I also provide a chart of the day more recently via social media. I also provide what we call a TICML chart here. She's an interactive chart breakdown of a setup I'm looking at in the markets for the session ahead. You can register via TICML blog to receive my updates via email. My other real passion project is as the head of trading and trader education for a leading trading education brand called FXcareerswap.com. We offer development and funding to retail trading talent at FXcareerswap. We don't just develop retail traders market and trading strategy knowledge, we work on mindset development through a structure program that culminates in successful students managing the firm's capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. And for those that are interested, I can post a link in the chat later on. If you've got any questions, can I just ask that you hold the questions to the end of the chart session here and then I'll open up a Q and A and you're welcome then to chip in with questions via the chat or I can unmute your mic and you can speak to me via audio and happy to look at any charts or cover off any questions you may have. So without further ado, let's start with the dollar index. And I guess a brief overview of where we're up to with respect to these, what I've seen now to be never ending election results. So we are in a situation at the moment where we're in a contested election and what you're looking at on the screen here is actually a fractal which represents the price action in the dollar index post a contested election. So this line here is the election day. So we think about that in terms of Tuesday. So Daisy and then what we've got is this is an aggregate of the price action that we saw post any contested election. So it's not necessarily is price going to match this to the tick and we're going to see price action play out exactly like this. But what we can anticipate is there's the potential for price to mimic this pattern as such. So well, I guess the core feedback or the core takeaway from this chart is that in a contested election, the consensus view was that you'd see dollar strength when in reality, since 1972 whenever there has been a contested election or delayed results, we've actually seen dollar weakness. That's counterintuitive I guess to those who are of the mindset that the dollar is the ultimate safe haven. But if you think about it a little deeper, until there's actually some clarity in terms of the US government, you can see why investors may want to shun the US markets and reduce dollar exposure. So you can see here on average, we can look at 45 days past the election. So in terms of where we're at at the moment, this was take us in just before Christmas before the dollar really stabilizes. And then we can see a leg to the upside in terms of dollar. Now, this idea of the dollar strength post-election is further solidified here in this slide. This is a Bloomberg going back to the 1980s and what we actually see or what tends to be the case is that the dollar appreciates a hundred days after a US election. So if we think now we probably got, we might have here 30 or 40 days of weakness. You can see 2004, we did see a bit of a pullback but every other year, we tended to see this dollar strength hundred days after US election. So we go back to that original slide here. We can think to ourselves, right, there's the potential here to see a bit of a slide on the dollar heading into the back end of this year. But then we can actually see a period of dollar strength heading out into January or back end or let's say late December, early January. And now if we think about seasonal patterns in terms of the dollar index, dollar index has a tendency to perform pretty well in January and February of each of the years, of the calendar year. This is actually a matrix that shows you seasonal patterns in terms of the major training instruments. And we can see that dollar tends to be pretty well at the beginning of the year anyway, regardless of it being a post-presidential cycle. What we've also want to bear in mind is that from a positioning perspective, we're at pretty extreme levels in terms of positioning on the downside in terms of the dollar and we're at pretty elevated levels with respect to positioning on the upside for the euro. So if we're going to think about the charts now, let's jump in. Let's check in, these charts I've got set up to show the fractal patterns that we've been tracking. This is one second, let me go zoom out a couple of legs here. So what we were looking at essentially was going to be some strength in the dollar into the election, which we had, it didn't quite reach the, it didn't perfectly match the overlay here, but you can see we had the strength into the election and now we're getting the sell-off. I'm anticipating that this sell-off now is the, we're going to see a leg down here in terms of the dollar. Do I think it's going to run to the extreme that we saw here, not necessarily, and we'll look at the trading charts in a minute, but I perceive that we see a bit of dollar weakness here. This is the euro. What I want to look at a little bit more carefully here, so we've got the euro bouncing as we anticipated post the election. Now what we want to think about is, well, what happened in 2016 when we last saw, when we last had elections, and if we look at where we were, we are kind of, let me just remove all drawings from this. What I want to show you is this. So we were in a downtrend in terms of the euro dollar heading into the 2016 elections. This candle here is the election night in 2016. Now, obviously we had an extended range. We had about a 400-pip range on that night because we saw such a dramatic turnaround in the polls, but I've warned the guys on my desk or the guys I work with that we can anticipate probably a 200-pip movement in terms of the euro, in terms of its overall swing on the election night based upon options, pricing, and volatility. What you notice, we were in a downtrend, we consolidated, we got this reversal, we took out the loans in terms of prior cycle loans, and then we saw this reversal in the dollar index. Now we're kind of in the opposite scenario here. We've been in a bit of an uptrend here in the euro. We've pulled back, we've got that. Hi guys, can you still hear me? Sorry about that. The wifi actually went down here and I got kicked out of the room. Let me re-share my screen. Okay, let me know if you can see my charts again and we will continue. Apologies for that. So where was I? I was talking about the euro in 2016. Let me just pull this up. So I was just talking through the idea that we're in a downtrend heading into the election. We've got elections in 2016. And this year we're in an uptrend. We've got a pullback and let's just remove all the drawings. And so this was our election. Our election night candle was here. We got that anticipated just 200 pit range. And now we are, we're seeing some strength here. We're actually, or I'm long the euro at the moment. And what we've got here is a flag pattern and I'm going to walk you through shortly the trading scenario that I potentially see here if we can take out this trend line on a closing basis. But essentially what I'm trying to get across to you is that we're actually in the, we're kind of in the inverse scenario. So that's to the one we were in in 2016 when the price was extending to the downside. Let's see this chart isn't catching up for some reason. There we go. So this was our 2016 move where price checked back and then we resumed the trend. We took out the lows and then reversed. And so that's what I'm actually looking for to potentially play out here in terms of the euro that we checked back, we checked trend support here at the potential double bottom. If we can take out the trend line here then I think we should test or marginally exceed these prior highs before we see a period of potential correction in terms of the price action. And we look at the trading charts now. Let's just delve into these. So let's go to, we'll start with the dollar index. So we've got a pretty neatly defined pattern here now where we have a five wave structure. We can think that wave four is confirmed now certainly as we test this support here and we look like we'll take that out today as we get the election results through. So as we take that out, what we're looking for on the downside now is an equality objective versus this price action here. So we can reasonably expect that to the downside from the high we can extend into what should be an equality objective, a fifth wave low. Now, do we necessarily, does it necessarily in terms of time repeat? No, but certainly what we can anticipate is terms of scale. And then we look for some Fibonacci measurements here. So versus the fourth wave consolidation, we've got a 161 extension that brings us down into this 90 area that coincides with the equality objective versus wave one. So 89.70 is the ideal target. If we think back to 2016 and the euro dollar here and this consolidation phase we're in here, we just exceeded it. We didn't really make material on new loans. So we could be that in terms of our current setup, we might test this 90.78 area, the 127 extension, which is the minimum downside objective for a wave five. And that could be sufficient then to see an uptake in the dollar. But at this stage, the target appears to me to be this 90 to 89.70 area in terms of dollar index. So let's go back to the euro here and we're up testing the descending trend line resistance. If we get through this area, then I'm looking for a move up into this 120 and potentially into 121, which is the 127 extension of the wave four consolidation in terms of the euro. And we'll just mark that out so you can see what I'm talking about. So this is our first wave, second wave, third wave, fourth wave, and then we're looking for a fifth and a minimum to hit that 127 extension. But we also have this descending trend line, sorry, ascending trend line. Let's show this around. So you can see that the wave five could extend even at slightly higher to 122.39, which would be an ideal tag of the ascending trend line resistance. And then what I anticipate is that we see a more meaningful correction because whilst we have corrected here, it doesn't appear to me at this stage versus the advance that we've seen in terms of the euro that we haven't actually had a meaningful correction in terms of price. So for trends to really be healthy and to develop, what we want to see at some point is a minimum of a 38.2% correction. So that would have put us into 14.85 on the euro. We didn't get down there, we stopped at 116. So this would suggest to me that any move that we see to the upside now from a breakout from this fourth wave correction should be terminal for this leg of the trends. And then what we'd anticipate is that we get a correction. Let's try and map this out. So at least a three-wave correction then that should put us back into the wave four base. And so if that's the case, by that stage, let's get this, the tool going again. So what we could be looking at there, so if we trade into this trend line resistance, and then what we'd see is that this, if we get up into this area, we do find supply and we do get a pullback, then even just a standard three-wave pattern would put us back into the wave four base. But that wave four base by that time would actually prove to be sufficient for a decent correction because that would meet the 38.2% criteria. And furthermore, even if we extended slightly, we'd still have this trend channel potentially intact, even into a 50% retracement at that point, into the 114.27, before then we could look at the next meaningful leg of upside in the euro. So from a trend perspective, we want to see this descending trend line taken out on a closing basis. That should set up a retest of the prior highs. Once we get through there, we would anticipate that we then extend to complete the fifth wave here. Minimum objective would be the 121.19, and potentially as high here as 122.30, before we then see some decent pullback potential in terms of the euro to the downside. So that's what I'm watching with respect to the euro. Like I said, I've got a long position running in the euro at the moment, and I'm looking for this pattern to develop. So that's the euro. Let's check in with a few of these majors here. So we've got sterling. Sterling is in a similar pattern. Let's remove these drawings, clean it up, and start fresh. So we've got sterling testing its descending trend line here in what could be a triangle pattern, which we'd anticipate to break to the upside. We're actually, you can't see it on these charts, we're actually sitting right at weekly range resistance in terms of sterling. And that's why I think we're seeing some additional weight here, but if we can get through the trend line resistance on the closing basis, then I think we've got a room to run up to this, certainly this 133.43 handle. We've got the additional challenge with sterling in terms of the Brexit negotiations ongoing, obviously, but the initial target would be into this 133.40 area. What we could actually see though, let's just bring this out to the weekly chart very quickly and just remind ourselves of the bigger trend line that we have in play with sterling. So we have a of one second. This one peak here. So we have this trend channel. So again, what you can see is that this 133.43, we have trend line resistance. There was another one that I was tracking. Here it is. This is the one I want to focus on. So this is for the all time highs here in sterling and you can see, let's just remove that one. And the reason why I want to draw your attention to this bigger trend line is that, let's go back to the daily chart now that we've got one, Chris, is that even if we extend here through the highs or back into the prior highs, we've actually, or just marginally take them out, we've got that major trend line coming in at 135. So I want to keep an eye, because again, it's the similar scenario with respect to the Euro that we make marginally highs, get into a bull track situation here before we see a more protracted pullback in sterling. So that's a level to pay attention to. And we've got this one coming in here just above. If we do exceed this trend line, then we've got the next trend line coming in with the 127 extension, this 136, 137 area. But at the moment, we're struggling to get this close above the trend line resistance in terms of sterling. Let's check in with the Aussie. So the Aussie is retesting the pivot at the moment. If the Aussie can get a close above 72.50, then again, I think we're in the same situation with the Aussie that we can classify this as a fourth wave. And we have then targets on the upside, the minimum target for this, this move to the upside will be the 75.27 level, which is the 127 extension. And we could, if we replicate, look at this thing, our wave one, and this is our wave four base here, then we actually have similar, we have an equality objective. Let's use this. So this is one very shallow and sharp into a three high protracted wave four. And then this would give us a wave five and a quality objective and the 161 extension of the wave four consolidation, all coming in at 76.27. So we could trade up into this area before we get a pullback in terms of the Aussie. So we want to pay attention to any close above 72.50. You can then be looking on intraday charts, maybe an hourly chart or a four hour chart, look for a pullback to get in on the long side to certainly retest range high, the current high cyclized 74.20, next up 75.20, the ideal objective being 76.70. Now let's take a look at the Kiwi here. Similar story in the Kiwi, we're trying to break out of its channel, its current channel, which we've been consolidating in. So let's look, if we can get a close above the channel and retest these prior highs, let's do the same process to give us some targets to trade for on the upside. So this is going to be our wave four range here. And we have the quality objective. So we have this very shallow one two. And if we place that versus our four low, we have an equality objective here, which is quite a bit higher. Let's draw this in so you can see exactly what I'm looking at. So this, this, this, and then this will put us up into a 71 handle or let's say late 70s to 71 area for the cycle to complete. And that would also coincide with, so this equality leg here from the wave four low would also coincide with a 200% extension of the wave four consolidation. So again, if we can get through the 67 or 68 handle on a closing basis, then we have scope to run up to the 71 handle as an upside objective for the Kiwi. Let's have a look at gold, gold again, breaking out of its range, I'm sorry, if it's descending triangle resistance here. So if we can get a close above, let's just bring this in. The challenge here for gold is the apex of this consolidation that we've been in. So if we can get a close above the apex here of the broader consolidation range, then what we've got a chance with gold, let's remove this and this. So what we can see then with gold is if we measure this triangle to the base here. So we can break higher here and be looking at 2,180 would be the upside objective. And if we measure from there, so there 127 extension would be 2130, the 161 extension of the current triangle, 2126. I mean, there's plenty of scope in terms of gold on the upside. What we've also got to factor in terms of what could drive this gold move is that we have basically every central bank on the planet now, either talking about investigating negative rates or potentially moving to them. And so during periods of exceptionally low rates, gold tends to do well. Last but not least, let's check in from a couple of others that I'm looking at. Dolly Yen, I think we look set now with Dolly Yen to, let's just draw in where I think we've got going here. So again, we're playing triangles within triangles here. We have taken out the triangle support, we check back into the triangle, met resistance during the election night. And so what we want to think about now is do we have a channel target here with respect to this? So what we can see now is this is the current channel that we've been trading in. We could actually see Dolly Yen down into this 102 area into this prior supply zone. So keep an eye on this area in terms of potential support for the Dolly Yen. Another trade that I've got running at the moment is the SWISSI, I'm short SWISSI. I'm looking for the SWISSI now to test its descending trend channel support. So we could get down to 89.50 or 89.20 ideally. Obviously it's gonna get a bit sticky around 90.30 but the trade's running and it's risk-free at the moment. So I'm looking for the SWISSI to get down into this area before we see a bounce. And again, what I want you to factor in here or be cognizant of is that although I'm certainly bearish the dollar in the long run, I think now with this contested election hopefully coming to a resolution, we likely see a little bit more weakness in terms of the dollar heading into the back end of the year. The other thing you need to be cognizant of is that come the December ECB meeting, we are likely to see new monetary policy measures in play from the ECB that will in the near term or into the back end of this year, likely way on the euro. So once we get up into these 121, 122 area in terms of the euro, I'm gonna be looking to play it tactically on the short side and be tactically long the dollar into probably the beginning of next year before we start to see the next meaningful leg higher in the euro and lower in the dollar. Lastly, I would like to take a look at our old friend Bitcoin here. From the pattern that we were looking at a few weeks ago, we've continued to break out. We're now potentially gonna close above channel resistance here. And if we do so, then really what we want to be thinking in terms of Bitcoin, ironically, is there isn't really much resistance in play until we get up into the 17,000 level and beyond their old highs in terms of the 20,000 level. So this is one that again, I think is benefiting from global monetary policy essentially. So I think there's gonna be more opportunity to, I think, we'll certainly see sharp pullbacks, but I'm pretty bullish Bitcoin at the moment and looking for opportunities to add to long positions. And I think that pretty much brings me up to speed with respect to trade. So I'm along the euro short, the Swissie. And I'm gonna be watching the Aussie and the Kiwi as well. I think we can break out here and get some closes above some key levels. There's gonna be opportunity on the upside. And the S&P 500, I've posted the charts on the Tickmer blog today, but this is what's potentially gonna help drive this move in terms of risk sentiments. If the S&P can get a close above the descending trend line resistance here, so 35, 30, let's say, let's say, then I'm looking for these equity markets to test this ideal 37, 30 to 37, 60 area, I would be pretty bearish up here. Keep an eye on this momentum that continues to develop. I'm gonna be looking at triple momentum divergence on this next high. And I think we can see a meaningful pullback and certainly test what I'm currently marking as the wave four low here, 3,200 heading into the back end of this year. So apologies for the loss of the screen during the beginning of the session there. Couldn't be helped due to Wi-Fi issues. Okay, are there any questions? Anyone want to take me to take a look at the chart? Sorry that I haven't covered already in today's session. If you don't have any questions and end in the chat box, we'll let me know that we're all on the same page. Okay, good stuff. Well, look, I'm gonna wrap this one up here and I hope that's been useful and we will reconvene sometime next week. Thanks very much.