 The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento. All now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now Larry Pezzavento. Okay, looking good, Billy Ray feeling good Lewis. We're getting lots of volatility in the market folks. We had a high up there this morning at 4529, which was the 61% retracement and the market immediately dropped 30 handles all the way down to 45 even and then come right back and made another new high. So it certainly got a lot of movement buying. We've had tremendous movement in the Dow Jones. We were up over 200 points at one time and it dropped down to unchanged on the day and now it's been rallying back. It has not made a new high yet, but the S&P certainly has. This is a pattern that I posted here is a perfect Gartley pattern folks. And what I mean perfect, it works about two out of three times. So it could easily fail and go all the way up to 4574 without any trouble at all. The fact that it hit that number and backed off 30 points. I had two trades at the day today. One of them was in the, I'll show you the other one just a second, but to sell that at 4529 and of course it broke 30 handles and you certainly would have been able to take some profit out of that because it went straight down, paused just for about two and a half minutes right at the 78% level of the days low from yesterday and immediately goes up and make new highs. So these are some of the things that I'm looking at in today, but the fact that when you make that much money, you're making 10 points on the original trade. And when you make 30 points on the other one, that's what your maximum level is for unit one. If you trade two units, you maybe go for something more, but that's what it's all about. It's about risk control. And when markets are this volatile and this active, you've got to use a stop folks because believe me, you can come in here and someone can say, hey, we're done raising interest rates and we're going to drop interest rates now and things are going to go a great deal against you and this you do not want to have happen. That's where it hurts. I can remember my first day at work at Drexel Burnham and they said to me, he says, look, our customers are accustomed to losing money and they're accustomed to making money. The one thing they're not accustomed to is losing all their money. And if you lose more than 30%, you're not going to be here as an employee much longer. Well, I stayed there six years and I didn't have many drawdowns because I was lucky being bullish and gold during those six years, but it was a heck of a run and I certainly enjoy it. By the way, when I was in LA this past week, I stopped by to visit one of my old clients. He's 89 years old and he's pretty much an invalid now, but his mind is still good. So I got to spend about an hour with him in his beautiful home in Beverly Hills. He's got a nurse and he's got a caretaker. He had no children and he's leaving all his money to USC, which I think is a good event, but he was an attorney in Beverly Hills and did a lot of pro bono work and just a great job, but Lewis was a real class act in my opinion and I cried the last two hours on the way home because he had a lot of memories for me and he was really instrumental in helping me. Now, folks, I'm going to share another chart with you that's just as important. I think I'm going to share it with a little luck. I think we've got lucky today. Hang on, boys and girls. This might be the lucky day. Let's just check and see if we've got it right and please tell me we got it right. Folks, this is a treasury bonds over the past month. You see the high today was $121.19. That was a 3-8-2 retracement of the high that we made way back on July 19th when the market was making a high at that time. All right. Now this move is very similar in action. It's perfectly symmetrical they are. Now if it starts getting above $121.25, something like that, then this is broken in sequence and we're probably going to go a lot higher. But at that point, you don't have to risk very much. If you'd have done that trade, you immediately had a $300 profit in it so you could put your stop at break even if you wanted to. And that's what I usually try to do. But the high was $121.20 and so you only have to risk a couple ticks on that. And that's what the whole thing about this business or trading is all about, is putting the stops in so that you don't have to risk very much. The only way you can risk a small amount is if you prepare what the trades are supposed to be for the day. I had one yesterday that looked really good. It looked like the gold was going to stop at $19.65. And I said if it gets much above $19.67, it's probably going to go higher. Well, $19.67 was a boom in the way it went all the way up to $19.76. There's another example of what you try to do when you're trying to reduce your risk on some of these. That's really what I try to focus on because if you take some small losses along the way, you know, folks, believe it or not, I've had a heck of a run here these past few months and I'm only hitting at about 40% of my trades. And that's usually, I'm right at 65%. But when I do under that, I'm making more money than I'm making when I hit two out of three. So I'm taking some of these. I've had some pretty good runs on and especially crude oil and gold. Today we miss crude oil, folks, by 10 ticks. $110 and it dropped $1,300 from that level. And boy, you think that's not frustrating. Raise your hand. Yes, Johnny, I see that I'm frustrated too. But that's all part of it. You know, tomorrow, and maybe later today, it'll go up and get that number. I don't know. But it had everything going for it. It had three trade setups for today. There was crude oil, gold, excuse me, crude oil, bonds, gold and the S&P. Three of the four worked. And so we'll see which ones don't work, but that's needed here and there. So let's keep that in mind. And there's one other one here that we talked about that is really running this whole game and it has just started, folks. This move that we're seeing here in the U.S. Larry, Larry, Larry, Larry, Larry. That we're seeing here in the U.S. dollar. At least it's working in my, in the Tiger Den today or the TFNN room. This is what we've seen here now. All we've done so far, this was Sunday, remember? So Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, we've been long to Euro. We sold the Euro out today because had a two and a half day run and it made 112 pips, which is $1,400. We were only risking $30. And now we're waiting to see what the pullback will be here on the next move. Remember, folks, I'm focusing on the patterns working and when they work, they're going to pay you automatically and when they don't work, they're going to spank you. But they're not going to spank you with a paddle. They're going to spank you with a little cotton swab so that you don't get hurt too badly. So that's what we want. This is, to me, of all the charts that I'm looking at, that S&P chart and this chart in the U.S. dollar. Because the U.S. dollar, you're talking about the, well, about the seven major currencies in the world that trade under cross-rate. And that's what we're trying to do. We only trade the five majors, folks. We trade the Euro, the Pound, the Yen, the Canadian, and the Australian. Those are the ones that we trade. I've never traded the Rim-N-B. I haven't traded the Swiss franc since they pulled that bank robbery back in 2014. I believe it was when they came in and dropped the market at $20,000 in one day and then took it back up to next day, $20,000. I don't want any part of that action. In fact, they should have been banned from Forex for what they did, but, you know, if they don't count the votes over there, they weigh them. And again, getting to votes, remember, the thing that's happened in Australia, Australia, try to get in Africa about the BRICS bringing in other countries. You know, Russia, India, Brazil, and China have also brought in Iran and Egypt and Ethiopia and some other countries to go into the IMF and what they've done is they've been able to dilute the votes for the IMF. So as of January 1st, folks, the U.S. is not going to be in control of the IMF. Of course, they'll still pay for everything. Why wouldn't they do that? Let's take a break here, 877-927. With rising inflation, rocketing interest rates, a volatile dollar, an uncertain market, there's an asset that all traders flock back to gold. However, these irregular times also mean a regular gold market, which presents its own unique challenges. This brings up the question, what moves the gold market? This is a question I'll be answering in my next live webinar. On August 30th, from 4 p.m. to 5 p.m., I'll be hosting a live, free webinar for all those who've subscribed to my newsletter, The Gold Report. The Gold Report has been in publication for over two decades, and I've seen just about every market gold has been traded in. This experience lends me great insight when trading gold in other mining equities, and now that insight can be ours. On August 30th, I will deep dive into gold, bonds, and the dollar, where they are now, how they affect each other, and what to look for when looking to set up a trade. Additionally, I will provide a comprehensive breakdown of the XAU, HUI, and GDX, as well as cover individual gold equities and answer questions live on the air. Subscribe to The Gold Report today so you don't miss this rare moment gold, TFNN Educating Investors. Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago, and the student has now become the master. Steve won the prestigious Timer of the Year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019, finishing at number two for the year, an amazing accomplishment. Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn, and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability newsletter. Steve's award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability, is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's Market Newsletter, Mastering Probability, and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free. At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee, so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability 30 Days Risk-Free Today. TFNN Educating Investors. Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? Introducing Tom O'Brien's winning newsletter, Market Insights, your key to successful, active trading. Tom O'Brien, renowned for his expertise in the financial markets, has designed Market Insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades. Tom publishes his daily Market Insights newsletter every market day before the market open, along with updates when warranted. Stay ahead of the game with Tom's real-time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out, Market Insights provides the edge you need to navigate the markets with confidence. Ready to join the ranks of successful traders? Visit TFNN.com and subscribe to Market Insights today. Don't miss out on this opportunity to supercharge your trading results. Market Insights comes with a 30-day money-back guarantee for all new subscribers, so you have nothing to risk. Don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game. Head over to TFNN.com right now to join the thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter, Market Insights firsthand. TFNN Educating Investors. 727-6648. Internationally at 727-873-7618. Man, you know, folks, the biggest frustration I have in business, and just about everything else, is a technical part of this business. I mean, I just really, I'm not very good at it. I never have been. Don't profess to be, but by golly, I think I get these things fixed the way they're supposed to be, and yet nothing really happens. I'm going to try to do this with the screen, and I don't think it's going to work, but let's get it up there. Nah, just a second here. I'm going to try one more time. It's a really nice picture of what's been happening in the market here today, and I want to bring it up to you. Now, when I do that, I lose a cord. Oh, boy, or discord. Why'd they ever call that company discord? No, they can't see it now, because I didn't post it. You're showing a chart of the Dow Jones industrial average? Tell me. Alright, let's try it again. I'm going to see if we can get it up here one more time. If I can't, this would be worthy of you. Oh, it worked. There you go. Okay, now there you go. Here was the high. Yesterday is where, if you remember, yesterday is where I sold this thing right in here. You remember? Then it backed off here in the morning, and then I got stopped out right here. I took my 100 point loss right there, and it went all the way up to here, and it's up. This went right to the exact 382, and then rallied up to the 618. If you think these dudes are out there doing this algorithmic trading, don't know these numbers. Oh, my goodness, they do indeed. And so pay attention to this. It's really, really quite important. So this is what we're watching here today. We just made new highs, of course, in the S&P and the NASDAQ. We did not do it in the Dow Jones. Whether that means anything or not is not too important. But that pattern that I posted today with the E-mini S&P up there at night 4529 is very important. Whether that continues to be important by the end of the day, certainly remains to be seen. We had a question about risk control. That's probably the number one people ask me about risk control. Folks, risk control is a personal thing. You have to decide how much you're going to risk on the trade. You can look at the pattern, and you can look at everything in it. The two reasons that most people lose, and this is looking at 10,000 accounts from Merrill Lynch from 1973 to 1983. I mean hundreds of thousands of trades. I went through with these with Mark and Paula Douglas back when we were in Chicago. It used to be our little fun thing to do to see how people made money and how people lost money. And the statistics on those 10,000 you get a sample size that big, you can't believe it. But here's the statistics behind it. Of those people, 80% of the people that started out lost. The people that stayed with it for two, three, or four years eventually started to make money. It was the new people coming in, the fresh blood that was giving all the money. The two main reasons why people lost out of all the stuff that they did. They're not going to be surprised. They put their stops too close. In and out of the market, little tiny losses, little tiny profits. They didn't have much of a chance. The second reason is they wouldn't use any stop at all. I mean they would have humongous, they have some great profits and then have one humongous loss that would just tear them to shreds. So those are the things that we found out from that level. I was familiar with some of that and I worked at Drexel from 76 through 82. I only had two customers there, Ty Ganderuz and what's the other guy's name? Stan Kaplan. Stan just passed away here about three and a half weeks ago over in Palm Springs. But those were the only two guys that put their orders in themselves. They could literally call Sue and she would literally put their orders in themselves. Every time they traded, it was $40 folks, $40 commission in and out. Compared to what we play now, not only that, but you had to pick up the phone and you had to wait for the fill to come back and then after the fill was, they had to call you back. Can you imagine, now we do this in a fraction of a second. So that's why our business today is so big and so many people trading is because it's so dog unfair the idea of what you're doing when you're following these things because it's important to remember that this is one of my things that I say every day besides live every day in an attitude of gratitude is that it's not how much money you make, it's how much money you don't lose and that's the key because if you can do that, you're going to be far better off than if you don't and if you don't, then you'll probably be doing better between gold and silver today. Someone's asked me that question, why is gold so strong and silver so weak? They're two different commodities folks. They realize a lot of people that trade gold trade silver, but silver is an industrial metal more than the gold is, which is a precious metal. So that's the reasoning behind some of these things of why you see you've got to trade each one separately because they give you different signals and that's the main thing. Do they go in the same trend most of the time? The biggest frustration today from our point of view is we had a perfect signal in the short crude oil, the October crude at 82, 82.11, the high was 82.03. We missed it by 80 cents and it's broken $1,300. Now it might go back and still get it because that's going to stay valid for at least all the rest of today and possibly tomorrow because it's hanging up there and I haven't checked it in a long time and it's been doing, but that was the one that set up just really nicely and so those are the ones that we're watching here today. By the way, remember tomorrow we're going to have he'll be able to talk to us about crude oil, gasoline and heating oil and that's Mike Moore of More Analytics and as you know, Mike has been talking about the difference between gasoline and heat oil which have been in a nose dive to the downside and crude oil is what you see and not what you think and so you trade the ones that are giving you the patterns, the other ones you move on and don't worry too much about it and then on Friday, God willing Joe DiNapoli will be here I've talked to him three times today he promised me no politico so he'll probably sneak it in somehow but we'll buzz him off the air just as quick as we can you want to keep it as civil as we possible can someone sent me a little note saying I didn't think it was very smart to mention what happened to that dude over in Spain that the soccer guy well folks I tell you that bothered me a great deal I just can't believe that people can be that cruel but anyway that's neither here, yes Johnny I'll shut up and we'll move on to the next chart so hold on one second here and I want to get up the next chart that we'll be able to see here in just a second so hold your horses and we'll be right with you because it is going to be the Chinese stock market I hope it's going to be the Chinese stock market nope it's going that's not it what's happened to my shut the front door this is the one that I'm waiting for we got down to this bottom we hold on one second it's the British pound folks give me one second because this pattern has not been completed you know I want to show it to you because the euro completed wow I don't know what's wrong Jacob but the darn thing ain't working buddy so I don't know what I'm going to do this is the side of all my frustration so I'm not going to worry too much about it anyway we've got to take a break here in about 30 seconds right now we're going to have Jeff huge back and we're going to have some really good things to tell you about the market so stay with us 877-927-6648 with rising inflation with interest rates of all to dollar and uncertain market there's an asset that all traders flock back to gold however these are regular times also mean a regular gold market which presents its own unique challenges this brings up the question what moves the gold market this is a question I'll be answering in my next live webinar on August 30th from 4pm to 5pm I'll be hosting a live free webinar for all those who's subscribed to my newsletter the gold report the gold report has been in publication for over two decades and I've seen just about every market gold has been traded in this experience lends me great insight when trading gold are the mining equities and now that insight can be ours on August 30th I will deep dive into gold bonds in the dollar where they are now how they affect each other and what to look for when looking to set up a trade additionally I will provide a comprehensive breakdown of the XAU, HUI and GDX as well as cover individual gold equities and answer questions live on the air subscribe to the gold report today so you don't miss this rare moment gold TFNN see you next time for all he's got 45 years experience as a day trader Larry will also provide daily charts videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today Tom, educating investors sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8 30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be TFNN educating investors don't forget you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to TFNN.com then hit watch Tiger TV that's TFNN.com then hit watch Tiger TV okay we're back folks and we have our friend and I guess I was trying to say my language is slipping a little bit today but a good friend and a great analyst Jeff Hughes of Alpha Insights Jeff thanks for joining us today my friend me on the show yo it's love to have I see your season alley is September to remember this has definitely been a course we've been up for a couple days here but boy September has been a little nasty for most people well it is the worst month of the year for equities far none you know I think the median return for the S&P 500 during the month of September if you look at data back to 1928 is minus 1.56% and the median return for the NASDAQ 100 during the month of September this is looking at data back to 1985 is minus 1.2% but the thing that's probably not as well known about September is that it tends to be a little bit front and loaded so normally the first half of September is usually worse than the second half and according to Goldman Sachs the period between September 2nd and September 14th typically accrues the majority of the decline for the month okay well we had a pretty big decline then we've had a rally back so there's a possibility there could be more to the downside is that the analysis that you're looking at I think there's quite a bit more to the downside personally okay now is that based on I know you don't use your opinion too much but you're basing it on these wonderful charts that you send us so let's take a look at the next one here oh this one really has a downward momentum this is the Montgomery dates that we're looking at let's take a quick look at this one folks this is going to be really interesting if I can just the chart Larry was put together by Ned Davis research this is their cycle composite for the S&P 500 for the year 2023 and the solid blue line that begins in January and end December indicates the expected path and return for the S&P 500 based on three cycles that they aggregate together it's the one-year seasonal cycle the four-year presidential cycle and the ten-year decennial cycle now when we look at this blue line the solid blue line the important thing to remember is that the trend of the line is far more important than the level of the line however if you look to the far right scale you can see that the prediction is for about a 10.5% return for the year and we topped it about 20% on July 27th of this year so far we pulled back somewhat as you mentioned we got a little bit of a counter trend rally going right now but what we did is we doctored up the chart a little bit and we added a horizontal line to indicate where 10.5% would be for the gold-data series which actually represents the S&P 500 actual return and actual path as of the end of last week and then we've added six vertical lines and those vertical lines represent Montgomery turn dates these are cycle turn dates forecasted by the work of the late and great Paul McCray Montgomery who was a tremendous cycle analyst and built a 50-year career off of his work and the thing that's interesting to me is that some of those cycle turn dates line up almost perfectly with the expected path of the S&P 500 and what we're thinking is that we may very well see the path the trend of that cycle composite play out but the steepness or the magnitude of the changes could be significantly greater and so one of the things that we've been thinking Larry is that the two center vertical lines are major turn dates and they are October 14th and October 29th and we think we could see a very significant decline in that period that could carry the S&P down substantially below you know it's recent lows and in fact if we look at the cycle composites ultimate end of year sort of expectation a rally back into that 10.5% expected return would actually suggest that we could bottom in late October and rally into year end to recover some of that loss and end the year near around 10.5% this is my working hypothesis it's just me playing around with cycle data and I think there's a pretty good chance that this could play out this way that would be one heck of a prediction my friend I remember October 29th was a crash of 2000 or 1929 but people don't realize this it went down for another 9 or 10 days it bottomed on November the 10th or 11th and then rallied almost 60% up into April 1st and then went down for three years so it was it was a really wild market but October 29th certainly historically means a great deal that's for sure and not many people alive hey very few people that are trading a lot I mean there's none of them they got to be 100 some years old I'm close but even then I wasn't trading then but it is historical date I've not had too much luck with historical dates I've looked a lot of them but I just go with what the patterns tell me that gives me a better idea let's move on to our next chart here because you've got some really good ones that I want to let the folks see now this is the one that I'm really interested in here because we've had a situation in the US we've been watching really closely over these last few days what are you looking at here Jeff well this obviously is about a two-year chart looking at the daily close of the US dollar index versus S&P 500 on the bottom and you know the conclusion that we would point out is that there's been a pretty interesting negative correlation between these two series and you know one of my clients asked me recently is that the stock market driving the dollar or the dollar driving the stock market in my view the way I look at the data it looks like it's the dollar that's driving the stock market and in fact you know we've been reading about an impending demise of the dollar for 20 years just hasn't happened and that's probably because there's no real realistic alternative to the dollar I mean we're not going to start buying a chewing gum at the local convenience store with Chinese yuan or euro or Russian rubles or Turkish lira for that matter the dollar is going to be the dollar right and it is the reserve currency and it will likely be the reserve currency for a very very long time to come at least if somebody else has greater than 11 aircraft carriers that might change the scope of the discussion but I think that's a long way out the US dollar has broken out above its short-term downtrend line and it now appears poised to challenge key resistance at about 161 I think a sustained bullish inflection above that level would project a measured move up to about 110 or 110 rather and you know if we take a look at what happened to the stock market as the dollar moved up from its lows of around 99 and a half up to around 104 and change the S&P dropped by 272 handles I think if we break out and move up to 110 we could see a much bigger decline in terms of S&P performance well that's an incredible prediction because that would really that would really put us that would be relatively bullish for gold too wouldn't it there I would think so yeah but you never know that's for sure Jeff we're going to have a break coming up here in about 40 seconds but the one thing I'd like for you to do at the end of the day is make sure you go over you know the service you have with your newsletter because it's it's just triple A quality in my opinion that anybody can understand so make sure we do that we're going to take a break now we'll be back with Jeff huge of alpha insights stay tuned for us you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com the opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman wave the Chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman and your inbox every day first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up tfnn.com educating investors are you ready to take your trading to the next level introducing Tom O'Brien's award winning newsletter market insights your key to successful active trading Tom O'Brien renowned for his expertise in the financial markets has designed market insights be your daily guide to profitable trades Tom publishes his daily market insights newsletter every market day before the market open along with updates when warranted stay ahead of the game with Tom's real time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox whether you're a season trader or just starting out market insights provides the edge you need to navigate the markets with confidence ready to join the ranks of successful traders head over to tfnn.com and subscribe to market insights today don't miss out on this opportunity to supercharge your trading results market insights comes with a 30 day money back guarantee for all new subscribers so you have nothing to risk don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game head over to tfnn.com right now to join the thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award winning newsletter market insights firsthand tfnn educating investors biotech is booming but for how long whether you think the biotech bull has room to run or has run its course trade you or la bd directions daily biotech three times bull and bear ETFs visit directioninvestments.com biotech today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at 866-476-7523 the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principle the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four-side fund services LLC this program is brought to you by Vista Gold traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ hey we're back folks and we're talking with Jeff huge of alpha insights and we'll be talking about the primary degrees in Elliott wave so please continue my friend sure you know Larry we've been looking at this as being something of a larger degree pattern and you know a lot of people feel like the bear market might have ended in October of last year we think that was just the first leg down of a multi multi-year corrective wave form that will actually be correcting a super cycle degree advance that began in 1932 and we think ended in January of 2022 so we think this is going for a number of years we count the first move down into that October 2022 low as being primary wave one down and it traced out what's known in Elliott wave parlance as a leading expanding diagonal so it's a fairly rare pattern and it actually came up a little bit off the kilter from its expectations the final low was a little shorter than it should have been it should have fallen a little bit further so that's what kind of caught us off guard on that but since that October 13 low we've counted a counter trend advance that we think topped in July on July 27 and the way we get there is we see the first move up from about October 13 to December 13 last year is five waves up it's an impulse wave that ended intermediate wave A then we traced out an ABC flat pattern to complete intermediate wave B and from the March 13 low we traced out five waves up to complete intermediate wave C of primary wave 2 now this was a complex wave form that actually traced out two extensions a fifth wave extension and a fifth of a fifth wave extension and that actually made the identification of this pattern's terminal point somewhat elusive we were twisted up in this for a while but we think we finally figured it out and if the counter trend advanced topped on July 27 we think key support is now the minor wave 1 low that's the August 18th low at S&P 4335 now we've seen this very low volume counter trend advanced it's been a three wave advanced we call that a zigzag in Elliott wave parlance it's retraced about two thirds of the decline so far the 786 retracement comes in at 4459 so I think as long as we don't get above that level we're pretty confident that this will top in minor wave 2 and that will be followed by minor wave 3 down which will be part of a five wave impulse pattern that will complete primary wave 3 down which should carry the S&P 500 down to significantly lower lows than the October 2022 low a move below 4100 on the S&P would definitively confirm that the primary wave 3 down is now in progress what's interesting to me is we can see the development of what's known as a classic pattern top formation of the head and shoulders variety starting to appear here and so if we break down below that August 18th low that would resolve that pattern and recount the measured move down to about 4050 which would take out a number of support levels 40200 complex which includes an open chart gap the 200 day moving average trend line and higher highs and lows that mark important support resistance levels previously we think that's going to be a really important zone to get through and once we do get through that with no uncertain terms I think it will mark the next leg of the bear market decline Jeff looking at this chart on the minor degree Elliott wave could that be identified as a head and shoulders pattern they look very it looks like a head and shoulders pattern just from eyeballing exactly what we've done is we've blown up this last three months of price action this is a 120 minute range chart using candlesticks and you can see this final advance off that August 18th low is taking on a ABC sort of corrective wave performance to counter trend advance if that peaks kind of on or about that below that gap resistance zone that we have illustrated we think the next move down if it were to take out that August 18th low would resolve that head and shoulders top and that would project down substantially lower to around 4050 we have gap support mark there at 40 to 40 40 to 20 I think that could be some minor that might hold a minor wave three but I'd be looking for the market to carry substantially through that level aggressively and so I don't think it'll it'll add much to the dynamic in terms of support well it certainly does look like a head and shoulders pattern a 64 dollar question is you know sometimes they work and sometimes they don't that's the main thing we've got three minutes here to get a little commercial in for you so let's start off by talking about your monthly newsletter it's the best 12 bucks a month a person can spend it's about the cost of a medium price glass of wine so tell the folks what you do here Jeff well every month we publish a newsletter affectionately entitled huge insights big picture we've been doing it for about two years now issue number 25 comes out on Saturday September second and we're going to discuss something very very interesting we're going to discuss the implications of debt in the economy at this point because there's all boy we're at record debt levels in terms of the U.S. national debt household debt is off visit off the charts credit card debt is off the charts student loan debt is well over a trillion dollars and and payment on student loan debt will resume in September this is going to have a major major impact on economic growth going forward and we think earnings growth and we think it will contribute dramatically to the magnitude of the impending recession that we see coming in late 2023 early 2024 so I would encourage all your listeners to you know sign up for our 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about ten times that value in my opinion because you break it down in black and white I understand a lot of people have trouble with the elite wave and of course I do too you know when I look at all those different primary waves and stuff you're not basically look at ABCD but the way you do his percentage wins is relatively low but the amount of money that he makes versus his win versus his loss is really quite good and that's what separates you know a good trader from the back trader you know it's a how much money you don't lose on how much money you make and so you do a great job there Jeff so I highly recommend this and I I don't recommend many newsletters but you do do a great job and it's certainly underpriced in my opinion so we're going to have you on again soon my friend so stay safe and keep doing a good work out okay thank you Larry look forward to it my pleasure my friend Jeff huge alpha insights folks very very good analyst we'll be right back eight seven seven nine two 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$12 a bushel last May when there was no wheat left in the whole world and how we are at $6 a bushel and nobody wants to buy it so that's one of the things that we're looking at and the key point to watch on this chart is one of the things that we work and teach all the time are 3-8-2 retracements and you can see there's been 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 5 on this chart just recently and now we're coming down we've made new lows here we broke believe it or not folks last night we broke $6 a bushel we hit $5.99 I was trying to buy it down there at $5.92 but no such luck it rallied $0.10 so it's really doing well now but this is really important folks wheat is one of the things that Andrew Lowe had in his book the evolution of technical analysis that the first chartists were astrologers because they used wheat and corn on little clay tablets and showed how they did their planting and how they did their supply and demand it's really incredible if you ever read that book evolution of stock I think it's evolution of technical analysis by Andrew Lowe only way we're going to be watching this one real closely that's another one that's been very tight on our alert list and also the Treasury bonds folks watch Treasury bonds because they get above $1.22 that means that this bear market rally that we're having in Treasury bonds is going to continue but yes the yields are going to look very very attractive but the Federal Reserve is between a rock and a hard place folks because interest rates cycle top 2.5 years ago and that means interest rates are going to be going higher and like Jeff said you've got all these people that have debt well when people are having debt like this they do not give them a break so let's remember folks it's not how much money you make it's how much money you don't lose live every day in an attitude of gratitude and may God bless