 Okay, traders, welcome to this week's Live Market and Trend Analysis session with me, Patrick Munnerly. Before we get going, just want to do a quick audio and sound check, make sure that you guys can hear me loud and clear, testing audio, one, two, three. If you can hear me, if you type a Y into the chat box, that'll be helpful. And we are going to get going here with this week's session. Before we start the presentation, as always, I want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. Most importantly for today's presentation, it's important to understand that the views and opinions expressed by me are solely mine. They're not indicative or representative of those held by Tickmill UK or Tickmill Europe Limited. Those of you who are here for the first time, brief introductions myself. After I graduated from university, I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup focused on C-suite executive search for technology businesses. Essentially, I have a front row seat to the dot-com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the market, sometimes quite literally overnight. So I decided to explore my curiosities for markets with some capital's play with and some time on my hands. I started day trading in the S&P 500, probably more appropriately at that stage, day gambling. And after some early beginners, I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginners luck went out and as the market phase changed, I began to average down into losing positions and giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six-figure hit to my personal capital. Say that was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. So I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading and sort out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years was a time during which I had to not just my technical gain in terms of researching, developing and essentially back and forward testing strategies that crucially suited my personality, all of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. Most importantly, during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game. And probably most importantly, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal orientated individual focus on financial gains to becoming purely process orientated. So what does that actually mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. Once you become process orientated and you have a professional trading mindset and you understand the true nature of trading is simply a numbers game in which you're playing the probabilities, you lose the emotional investment and that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a small string of trades. My focus on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence and execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013, I have also been managing investor capital through a managed account service delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi-million dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've mentored hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reap consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm resident market experts exclusively providing market and trade analysis to TIT mill clients. I provide an in-depth daily market outlook breaking down the fundamental and technical drivers for the trading day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setup videos. There's a share through the TIT mill trading view accounts. I also run TIT mills rapidly growing EME strategy group where I post a daily video outlining my pre-market trading plan for the S&P cash trading session in New York. I give my bias for the trading day ahead specific action areas where I'm looking to engage the market. These pre-market plans have delivered over 2500 points of profit since we launched the group last year. Second TIT mill strategy group I run is for traders who really want to take their trading to the next level. TIT mill futures telegram trading group is a real-time environment where on a daily basis I share in-depth insights, analysis and trades. I also provide live commentary during the opening hour of the New York cash trading session where traders can essentially see in real-time how I dissect the market and identify asymmetric trading opportunities. These sessions act as a platform helping traders to develop a professional consistent approach to navigating markets and the mental mind games that must be mastered to make it as a profitable market operator. Okay, so that gives you a flavor of where it is I am coming from. Let's jump into the charts. What I would say before we get going here is if you have any questions with respect to any of the analysis I provide, you just drop those into the chat box and I will come back to those at the end of the session. Equally, if you have an instrument you want me to take a look at that I don't cover, you can just put that into the chat as well and I'll give you a view on any of the instruments that's on the platform. Okay, so starting with the E-mini S&P 500. We are bullish against this swing low at the 3740 area currently holding swing long positions and what I'm looking for now is a test up into this trend channel resistance looking for 3970 to get tested. Anticipate a pullback from there but as long as we hold then above the monthly pivot I'm looking for an extension to the target zone, the equality objective at 4025 to 4035. From there I'll be watching for the potential for longer term bears to step back in and take another move to the downside. What's important to remember is that heading into next week we have earnings season starting and I'm anticipating that we can see some strength between now and then. First release is coming out on the 13th and 14th of July. I think we've got a window here for this pop higher to develop but what I'm anticipating is that we're going to see some weakness in earnings and it's going to be the earnings, earnings fears and the recession fears obviously that will potentially drive the next leg to the downside. So ideally what I'd like to see is testing this 4025, 4035 area as we head into the back end next week and earnings season commences and then I think we're going to see another leg of weakness. At this stage only a break of the support here at the 3739 would be a bearish developments and would take us down immediately then to think about a test of the 3500 level. But for now like I say I'm positioned on the long side and I'm looking for a further drift higher. Nikkei similar story against this pivot swing low that we have in place here at the 11348. We look for a test of the equality objective at 12494 and bear in mind that also coincides not in terms of time for corrections. If we do extend higher this would have been a slightly longer corrected period. Equal really let's just have a quick look here. Yeah so this consolidation we've got at the moment is in terms of time not necessarily price is longer than we've seen at any point in the current cycle to the downside. But from a price perspective the minimum upside advance versus the prior corrections in this cycle gives us 12430. So that coinciding with the equality objective and again then those earnings coming through especially in some of these tech stocks heavily reliant upon the free money or the easy access to capital that we've seen in recent years. I think we're going to see some weakness in tech earnings and that's going to drive us for the next leg to the downside. Ultimately I'm looking for a test of the 10540 level in terms of this NASDAQ before we might put in a more meaningful base. Dow Jones same idea here. We are looking for a test of the equality objective which is sitting at 32,500 bullish set up at the moment here on this daily chart. So we're looking for a break about monthly pivot here 31,250 you can then be looking long and you can easily see that 32,500 level tested before a game you may see markets roll over. At this stage it will take a close back through 30,328 to open up the downside and we'll be looking for a test below 30,000 into the 29,000 level in terms of the Dow Jones but like I say for now I'm anticipating a drift higher into next week. Russell still this is the this is interesting the Russell is the only equity index the US equity index that hasn't tested its equality objective and that equality objective sits at the weekly high volume node at 1570. So any closing breach of this this trend line support you can see we've tested a few times with bias I've stepped in any closing breach would suggest that we're heading straight directly to there and what I'm really to see a more meaningful term of the indices we're looking for this equality objective to be tested. So any move at this stage in terms of the Russell is going to be considered let me draw this in a few in a similar vein to the other indices at the moment let's just here so versus the swing low that we have in place here we have an equality objective at 1833 so I'm going to pay close attention to that area as an opportunity to engage on the short side targeting them so this is the pattern I've been looking for and then we want to see 1570s to 1560 on the downside so this is a this is a decent opportunity developing potentially develops next week as we get into this area can lean against the trend channel resistance and bearish reversal patterns here in this 1830 to 1880 area opportunity then to trade for that downside target into the 1570 so decent 300 points of potential there to the downside to my mind so that's what I'm watching closely DAX took out the weekly trend line support where the bias step in at the weekly high volume though so profit taking for now in terms of the DAX we also have a potential double bottom here in play a little bit of momentum divergence nothing to I think really to suggest that we're going to see anything more than a correction at this stage in the DAX and we have the trend line coming in here so what could we see here from the DAX well what I anticipate is something like this trade up into the new monthly pivot and then if seller step in there we have a downside equality objective now in the DAX at 11 thousand 129 so we can really see this roll over in terms of the DAX so a close attention to that pivot test again broadly coinciding with the upsides expected in these us indices and then we'll see if we're going to roll over and make those new loans Nick I sitting tested the weekly trend line bunch of times but we the bids have been defending that area and so if we can get a move back through 27,250 then we have an upside objective at the quality target 29,429 at this stage only a close back through the swing low here 25,530 will open the dam side the quality objective of 22,525 moving into the currencies the dollar index obviously I personally was looking for this yearly R3 to provide some decent resistance we didn't didn't get that and now we're thinking about a test into the 10730s as the next upside objective and beyond there we have the 127 extension of this decline into the 20 the January 21 lows that comes in at 108 so this is the next day I'm going to be watching to see if we can see a pullback at least in the dollar and I'm thinking about move back into these prior 104s but at this stage dollar remains bid safe haven bid but what's going to be interesting is to see how this dynamic between US indices and the dollar plays out I'm anticipating if we're going to see a pop higher in the US indices we should start seeing a little bit of short-term weakness in the dollar but certainly no trend reversal at this stage to my mind as we are pushing higher in terms of the dollar index for now euro breaking down looking now for a test of a parity just below really for a wave five here to potentially complete and then we may see a more sustained corrected move back up to retest those 10350s but I would anticipate as we if we get back up into the area that will act as as resistance and the pressure is again as with the dollar on the upside that's the euro trades to the downside so I'm going to be watching for any any first test of parity as long as we get some momentum divergence and certainly if we bring this trend line over here so any test into parity as long as momentum divergence is maintained we could see a short-term reversal and like I say a pop back up into that 10350 area and that will be the next decision point for the market sterling obviously Boris Johnson resigning we have a short-term pop in terms of the the currency pair on that news but the reality now is that this move in terms of the void of power short-term power base in terms of the UK is likely to leave the BOE in a very difficult position they weren't one of the raising rates into into this void of leadership in terms of the UK so I'm seeing further weakness anticipated here in sterling the area I'm looking for now is a test of 11750 area from there still see the potential then that would broadly coincide with that dollar index getting up into that 10750 is 108 area and I think we can play a potential countertrend corrective move there but whilst we remain below this trend line resistance 12150 I just see the potential for further downside actually in terms of sterling for now we could certainly think about a test into 116 as a legitimate downside objective for sterling dollar yen still holding the resistance area here at 13660 I was anticipating we see one more pop higher here into the 138 area and from there we've got momentum divergence active in play here then I've been looking to fade that from the back down into the 13130s I've been in and out personally this trade trying to try to manufacture an entry but I'm currently flat really we've been looking for a move back through 13430s to suggest that we're heading to that 13130 target so part of the reason that we've seen the part of the reason for the difficulty in seeing any real traction in terms of dollar yen trade these these yields we uh we tested that one uh the 3.5 percent pulled back into the equality objective on the downside 2.77 percent and we've got a bullish reversal here so if we get another another pop higher here in terms of yields what I'd be anticipating is something like this so back up into to test above that 3 point above that 3 percent level and then a bigger corrective leg to develop and that then would likely weigh on that on the dollar yen euro yen is one that I'm running on the short side talked about this last week and I'm anticipating now that we get a move down to test into the 134 area certainly looks certainly looks viable in terms of a downside corrective target and then from there if we test and hold again that 134 I'd actually be looking to get involved on the long side in terms of the euro yen a bit short for now sterling yen looking for a test of the trendline sport weekly trendline support somewhere back into this 157 area um obviously we've seen a bit of a pop in terms of sterling yen uh on this uh it's Johnson News this morning but now it starts to roll over again so any loss really of that 159 sets up a move to test back into the 157 to my mind and then again again with all these yen pairs because we've broken to new highs whilst we hold trend support I'm actually really looking to work to get involved on the long side Aussie yen um looking again I'm looking for this test of support here back into the 86 area and then from there I'll be watching publish reversal patterns to put on long positions looking for new highs in terms of these these yens actually I'm just going to draw that in give me a target here so I think that the equality objective versus the swing structure here it's an upside target 103 well 104 103 90s 104 in terms of Aussie yen so I'm going to move back into this support so bullish reversal patterns and we'll be looking on the long side cad yen didn't we have actually broken that support there so I've got a new set up here in play for the cad yen let's draw this in for you so any test back into this 101 area is going to be an opportunity on the long side so I'll be thinking about a pattern like this to play out and then we're off again on the long side in terms of the cad yen so that's one to keep an eye on nothing immediate to do there similar story in key yen we're looking now we've got quality and trend line support coming in 79 60s that's going these these ones are are in in development basically in terms of the setup but these are going to be the key areas to to reengage on the long side dollar cad as discussed last week held the high volume out again and we have a target at 132 here 132 oh four on the upside with dollar cad before then I'd be watching the various reversal patterns to engage on the short side and if we see this if we get this pop in terms of these commodity effects we can talk about in a second and that dollar index is testing out 108 107 50 area and that could coincide nicely with a reversal or at least a short term reversal for the dollar obviously still waiting 66 50 is the area we want to see tested and then we'll be looking for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side key we dollar any corrected move now back into this trend line resistance is an opportunity on the short side to my mind so watching for a test of 62 80s and then we look for lower again and certainly to think about a test of 60 on the downside in terms of Kiwi Kiwi dollar you're also this is one I was watching yesterday was looking for this trend line test and see if we've got bullish reversal looks like we're eroding it now big outside reversal on the weekly candle here rejected from that price support area 51 to 3 30s so any move back through at the pivot 147 50s opens a retest of the cycle loads down to 143 gold breaking down now nicely and this again if we get this if we get gold down into this 60 1670 area I think this could be a significant opportunity to build a longer term long position in in gold so I'm paying close attention to that 1670 is the area of interest watching for bullish reversal patterns there and we can do something on the long side silver came just shy of the quality objective have we tested yeah so I'm looking for silver to test 1840 at the LBC gold down testing its quality objective and then I've been looking for a long positions in silver crude oil took out the trend line support what I'm looking for now is any break of that low 95 sets up a test of 86 30 to 80 sorry 86 30 to 85 30 and then from there watch for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side for another neck higher in terms of crude I'm going to wrap this up with a look at bitcoin and apple for you so bitcoin looking for a move through the trend line resistance here 20700 area that should set up a test of this trend line resistance and the equality objective 20500 from there and watching for bearish reversal patterns for another leg to the downside we've done the quality objective abc target 12185 on the downside and again with this with with this short term shorter term strength we're seeing in terms of risk sentiments at the moment that's what should see bitcoin pop into this resistance area for the next leg to the downside and wrap this up with apple this is an earnings play I'm following like I was saying I'm looking for near-term strength to be faded into the earnings release so apple releases on the 28th of July I did I'd like to see it testing about just into that $150 level from there I've been watching the bearish reversal patterns and I've got a 120 target on the downside for apple before looking at another corrected opportunity to the upside and that wraps up the charts that I'm tracking and the opportunities I see in the coming sessions are there any questions I'll post into the chat for you the those that are interested in getting the daily trade plan that I post for the S&P 500 I've just put a link in there you can just request access for that and I'll also post the trading view link so you can follow along with my trade ideas on a daily basis and if there aren't any questions I am going to wrap this session up here as always traders plan the trade trade the plan and most importantly manage your risk until next week thanks very much