 Week 14 was another one in DFS where there were a disappointing number of injuries, especially at quarterback. I think in like the first quarter, you had three separate guys who did not start playing at quarterback for the respective teams. And obviously, there's a lot of trickle down to that when it comes to DFS. We're going to break down the takeaways from that. We're going to talk about other role changes and pretty interesting ones for this week. And take a look ahead to week 15 by diving into the salaries over on Fandwall.com. This is a heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire. That's right here on the Fandwall Podcast Network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Saunders. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Joined here as always by Brandon Genula. He is the senior managing editor of NumberFire.com. Brandon, we are almost week 15. How are you doing today? You know, I'm here. Allegedly. Yeah. So, I mean, you know, we prepped for the recap show. I was warming up my voice before the show doing my scales. The Doremi Faso La, T. Higgins that I do every single week. But unfortunately, I was lost in the warm-ups. Yet you still ran a snap during the game. I'm making my comment. But now I'm going to watch from the sidelines. You can take it from here. Yeah. It was really fun to be sitting in. I'm here at the Fandwall World Fantasy Football Championship at Marco Isle. It's a great place to be. Fun event. But it was fun to know within 10 minutes that I didn't need to track my own lineups during the event. I could just close those tabs and go, okay, I'm going to pay attention to other stuff right now. I'm going to go get some free paella or whatever and hang out there instead of paying attention because it was toasty immediately. So that was disappointing. Your joke was also disappointing. No, that's good. And you should be ashamed of that. Come on. I had the warm-up. I had the T. Higgins and the... But there's trauma, Brandon. But I was warming up. Also, and you were talking about getting prepped for this podcast. It reminded me that I had to do WFFC last night, immediately leave from the boardroom to go prep for this podcast. I wanted to watch White Lotus before it got spoiled for me. So up until 1.30 doing that recording, other podcasts this morning. So you're like tapping into multiple areas of my psyche that I don't want to be reminded of right now. I'm going to ask you kindly to f off. All right. Well, that's been my time for the week. As I said, my voice is not quite feeling it anyway. Good. See you. We're going to break down week 14. I suppose we'll let Brandon stick around. So I've talked to this entire thing about myself. Let you know key takeaways and take a look ahead to the week 15 main slate as well. But first, a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy Podcast Feed wherever you get your podcasts. We, of course, are on a podcast Spotify, Stitcher, et cetera, et cetera. You can find us there just by searching for the Number Fire Daily Fantasy Podcast Feed. And if you like what you hear, it's a rating interview as well. With only a handful of Monday night football games remaining this season, Fandall and Visa are coming together to make sure the excitement surrounding Monday night is at an all-time high. Introducing Monday Night Perfect Picks presented by Visa, a free-to-play contest series on Fandall that gives you a chance to win a share of $10,000 in cash prizes. Courtesy of Visa. Here's how it works. You'll be presented with 10 questions centered around on-field action for Monday night's NFL game. Fans who answer the most questions correctly will win their share of the $10,000 prize pool. It's that easy. The contest is now live site at fandall.com slash free slash Visa Perfect Picks. And make your picks before Monday night. That's fandall.com slash free slash contest slash Visa Perfect Picks. No purchase necessary age and location restrictions apply. Void were prohibited. See full terms at fandall.com. Visa and its financial institutions have not sponsored or offered this promotion in any way. Let's dig in week 14 and recap what went down. The headliner here for this week is another injury for the San Francisco 49ers. Debo Samuel going down with what seems to be a high ankle sprain. Brock Purdy though, wildly efficient once again in this game on his 21 drop backs, 0.55 passing that expected points per dropback for Purdy in this game. Samuel still led the team or tied George Kittle for the team lead with five targets because they threw like three times in the entire second half. Brenton Iuk did score, but he had just three targets. Christian McCaffrey, a lot of work for him. Not a lot of work, but a lot of output. 14 carries three targets for a buck 53 in terms of total yards. So a Depot injury is going to hurt this offense. And we downgrade them going from Garoppolo to Purdy as well. Despite Purdy looking pretty good and being a fun story, at some point you'd think that these compounding losses would add up to where we need to downgrade the rest of the offense despite the bump in volume, but we haven't gotten there yet. So where are you on the 49ers with Purdy there, but Debo to miss time? Yeah, I mean, eventually like the shoes got a drop where the efficiency loss is just too great. The main issue with that is that Christian McCaffrey again, he's just always played in like bad offenses. So it's not like the end of the world, I think, for McCaffrey. His very creative end zone catch, not just target, but downfield catch really, really appealing. But I don't know if I'm ever going to have a lot of interest in like Brandon Ayuk tied to Brock Purdy because Ayuk's salary already has been in the upper six range. So I guess I'd be most interested in George Kittle. And I'm going to do this throughout the show. I know Jim doesn't care as much, but I'm trying to make sure that I know when teams play for Week 15. This team I know is Thursday night against Seattle. So thankfully... You were looking ahead to Week 16. No, Week 15 is fine. I get that. You were looking ahead to Week 16 but thinking that far ahead, I can't. Well, but you know, it's a different conversation because like if I knew this team was on the main slate, I'd be like, I don't have as much interest, but they're on Thursday. So like to make it more actionable, you know, we got to keep that stuff in mind. So I think that I'm still going to have just as much interest in Christian McCaffrey based on what he did this week. I think I will potentially maybe not, maybe just not even move like Kittle and Ayuk. I don't think the volume upgrade will be enough. They kind of offset. Yeah. Like I think it kind of is a wash because you know, debuts are a pretty good player and taking him off the field is going to clog things up. And you know, I like Brandon Ayuk, but I don't really think he's like someone who's going to separate and just kind of like do things on his own. I think having Debo alongside him, having Kittle McCaffrey beside him helps him out a lot. So I guess status quo here because I kind of just everything offsets. Weirdly. Yeah. I think so. I think I agree that too. Like we talked about this when we were talking about our player picks on Thursday. I was like, okay, like it feels bad to list a guy playing in the back of quarterback as a love because I had McCaffrey in there, but like the usage is so good right now. And like, I know 14 carries and three targets in this one is not huge, but they didn't have to do anything because they were up by 40. It felt like immediately they'd scored. I think seven points in the second half and they won by 28. Like it's nuts how that game went. So I think if we get into a tighter script, which I think they will on Thursday against Seattle. I'd expect McCaffrey, you know, you're probably putting, if you're like John Shearer in a Fandall sports book set in a line, 80 and a half percent snap rate for McCaffrey. Maybe pretty juice towards the over there. Like he's had 140 yards in scrimmage in all three games he's played in full snaps without Eli Mitchell for the 49ers. So it's tough to, it's tough to downgrade him too much just despite the injuries. 10.2 yard ADOT for McCaffrey. It's a downfield target in three consecutive games as a running back. It's nuts. Yeah. And while just the 68 percent snap rate, 83 percent of the routes. Yeah. So they're using and this team brought in just like in the areas you want him to be used. Yeah. So honestly, I wish this game was on the main slate for a lot of reasons because it'd be fun. Yeah. But one of those where like the usage was so good that it could have been, or not that the production was good, but like the usage could have been so much better. Yeah. So the salary probably not as high as it should be basically like one of those because it could have been better if this, if he was stretched out to a full game. If we're doing name that salary for a single game slate, I'd say like 17.5. And I'd put my MVP happily there. That's that. It's one of those, like, especially because like Seattle got bullied on the ground yesterday by a worse rushing offense. So like Deontay Foreman, full respect to you, but, you know, not quite McCaffrey, although teammate former teammates, but like, you know, I think I agree with you where I think it's status quo where that might feel odd because I want to be wary of this offense, but I can't be with McCaffrey getting the work he's getting. His salary is 17.5 for next week. Maybe, uh, maybe I should just do that instead of putting myself through T Higgins Torment. Okay, let's dive into other injuries from week 14. Russell Wilson suffered a concussion and was ruled out for the game. Didn't look good. Ripon came on in relief. We've seen Ripon this year against the Jets. Ripon did get a touchdown to Jerry Judy, but not sharp in this one. Russ played better than he has, but also, like, I think the touchdowns are a bit misleading in terms of, like, how well he was playing. Judy though, nine, or nine touchdowns. It felt like it. Three touchdowns on nine targets. Greg Dulcich at eight. Judy also had a downfield target that we induced pass interference. Both guys had two deep targets. The Broncos did lose Mike Boone in this game, but Marlon Mack still ate into Latavius Murray's workload. I'm still out on Murray. I know he was popular yesterday. In the WFFC, I think he was 30%. And, like, these people are smarter than me. I made a lot of, I used James Cook. So, like, I guess Latavius Murray popularity was surprising to me. And I feel like this game was a downgrade for him from my baseline, which is already pretty low, even with Mike Boone going down because Marlon Mack played well and ate in there. So, I'm not in on Murray. But could you get to Judy or Dulcich if Wilson were to miss next week? No, I mean, I was surprised that this team scored. What did they end up with? 28, was it? Yeah. Which was a season high for them. Because I've been on 23 walks with them. I just, like, you need touchdowns and, like, Jerry Judy got there this week. I get that. He had three. But just 73 yards on the nine targets. I like Judy. I think he's really good, which is not, like, a hot take. But I think it's been a while. It's becoming a hot take. People have soured on him. Right. It's been so long that it feels like I'm really high on Jerry Judy. Now, Judy's salary was 65 this week. After a three touchdown game, it's going to spike up. I think either way, there's, like, a quarterback downgrade because I don't anticipate that this team scores more than 23 points ever. I guess they get Arizona next week. Yeah. Apply till it's 18 and a half at home against a bad defense. Like, you just can't get out of your skis there. And I feel like Judy's salary is going to be too high. If it was still at 65, I'd be interested. But it's got to be up at 7,000, right? I would guess. I don't think that's terrible, though. Oh, no. Is it higher? 74, which is like my fear. Like, I was thinking like 7,000 was like bare minimum of how much it would jump. Do you have a different read on Latavius than I do? Because I feel like people will probably might be on him again next week. So I mean, you've been yelling at me on the recap show about bringing up Latavius for like three weeks now. The thing that you could bank on with Latavius was he was playing like elevated snaps consistently. And you don't find that very often running back. So like in week 12, he was 83%, then 67% a week 13, which I know is trending down, but now 52% a week 14. He was trending down with Mike Boone coming back. So there's an explanation for it. Yes. An explanation was getting worse. Yes. But what I'm saying is there was a running back is so bad that if you see a glimpse of like an even a 67% snap rate on a bad team, you know, we were, you know, we consider James Cook, we both played James Cook in our head dad. I can say I used him. Right. We're made. Yeah. But I'm the moron here. I accept that. So, but we talk, we talk often about like there's a difference between ambiguity in terms of projecting an increase and having seen something beforehand. I think with Latavius seeing him play that 83% snap rate now that this week, I know, I know it went down to 67%. But, you know, if you said, okay, well, 67% of snaps in a game where the team has to do something offensively a team against a team that doesn't really want to stop the rush. Like that has a lot of value to, you know, some people where you can get quote unquote that James going to freak out, but like get a floor of production. But that floor, I think with Latavius is gone. So I had a different take on Latavius than you did where I was more open to him, but I think that that's right out the window at this point. And what about dulcich? I'm guessing he didn't get the same bump as Judy. If dulcich were 55, would you go back in a probably the back of quarterback? Potentially only because he just is one of the few guys who gets downfield work. I believe he was second in Ariards among all tight ends this week, trailing only Travis Kelsey. Like with that with that potential, he is 56. It's fine. So yeah, dulcich, 92 Ariards, Kelsey had 101. I feel like if we have four total add more than 65. So like, yeah, I feel like if we had like a section on the podcast or in the low section like others to consider, I think he'd probably be in that bucket like he's, he's viable, but I want to tie a lot of guys to Brett Rippin or Russell Wilson. Not really knowing that personally. Just offense is not super desirable. Judy is a little bit high salary for me at that. Tyler Boyd and T Higgins. Sorry, earmuffs for people who use them this week, including me. I'm just going to hold my ears up while I'm saying this part. Tyler Boyd and T Higgins. I have headphones and the earmuffs thing doesn't work, but they both suffered injuries to the Bengals. Boyd ruled out with a finger injury in the first half. He's expected to miss a week or two. That left them with no Higgins, no Boyd, no Hayden Hurst for almost the entire game. And what do you do then? You feed the ball to Jamar Chase and Joe Burrow did that. 15 targets for 119 yards and a touchdown. Smaj P Ryan was second on the team with five targets. Only Trent and Irwin had more than 35 yards other than Chase. In the three games that Higgins has left early, here are Chase's target totals. 16, 12, 15, a 37% share. And Boyd played the first two of that split. I think Hurst did too. So how would a Bengals team without Higgins, Boyd and Hurst change your view of both Jamar Burrow? Jamar Burrow. Ooh, that'd be fun. Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase. Like Chase would enter cash gain consideration even in high salaries because it's impossible to see how he wouldn't get those elevated target numbers again. I think for Burrow, though, he's really good. He's been rushing more. I don't know off the top what he did rushing wise this week. I know he got to 13 yards because I was almost bet over 14 and a half for him. I don't know if he. He finished with 10. I think he has a nail bounce. Yeah. So I think Burrow is like unplayable if it's just Chase. This team doesn't have as many players as like unplayable if it's just Chase. This team doesn't have. I mean, if you take off, you know, T Higgins, Hurst, Boyd, those guys, I mean, T Higgins is great, but like Hurst and Boyd are not needle movers, but they keep you afloat. Unplayable in any spot or unplayable against the Bucks in week 15 specifically? Yeah. Like that's. Okay. And like, let's be frank. Do we think Joe Burrow is going to go, his salary is going to go down to like low 7000 or like 7400. It's 8000. So like, I don't think that there's enough there personally. But yeah, again, Chase, like I know the salary is going to be up, but with that market share, like I played, I played Justin Jefferson against you in our head to head this week. And that's very rare for us to do to get to one of those receivers. I think Chase is in that conversation if he's going to be locked into 12 plus targets. He's like, that's Cooper Cup of stuff. Yeah. And for a another like Cooper Cups of dynamic football player, so does Jamar Chase, obviously. If you're going to get 12 targets, you got to carry two. Yeah. He's on the list for guy got a carry. One carry is worth 16 targets to me. So 32 targets, 31 targets for Jamar Chase on Sunday. But he's 9000. Like that's that's really affordable for the usage you're getting. And I think this is I want to reiterate what you were saying, like that's rare for us to say because we prefer to spend up a running back versus receiver, but like that's targetable. Again, I mean, like the Bucks, that's not going to be a high scoring game most likely. I'm a little bit higher on borough than you are, I think, because I respect the way this coaching staff has handled this year. If you give them a full week to prepare for not having Higgins and Boyd, I feel like borough can still be efficient enough. Now it depends on the other corebacks in the slate. Like if we have Hertz, Mahomes, Allen, I know Allen's not in this late, but like if we have like all those guys there and it's a lot of competition for borough, then I'm not as interested, but $8,000. I think he can still go off with Justin Marchase personally. So I'm not as I'm not going to like, I don't think I'm actually seeking out, but I'm receptive more such than you seem to be. All right. I have like a bit of a comp here. Are you playing like Justin Herbert? Are you like eager to play Justin Herbert at 8000 with like just one viable pass catcher? Against the Bucks I wouldn't be, but I feel like so the difference is Justin Herbert's adots five and Joe Burrow's adot is like 95. Okay. So you don't view them very similarly? No. That was my question. That was like my roundabout way to get. I have respect for, this is weird to say, given the perception is active. I have respect for one of these coaching staffs and not for the other. So I would actually be okay with going with Joe Burrow. Yeah. I would prefer Joe Burrow over Justin Herbert right now, even if we assume there's no Agans. Okay. Interesting. I love I love Justin Herbert. I hate his coaching staff. That's what I'm trying to say. No, no, I got you. Yeah. So Herbert's 83 next week against the Titans, hosting the Titans. You're more likely to play Joe Burrow at 8000. No, because we have Williams and Alan. It's a different situation than you gave me. Right. Okay. Cool. Just checking. Just I did. You can't change the criteria on the plot. But I can and I did. No. I should. I actually did a kick to you out earlier. Okay. Okay. So we've just done an ankle injury. He suffered in week 14. We're going to talk about the Panthers in the philosophical section and talk about the potential implications of this there. Dantral Hilliard was carted off on Sunday and that coincided with the big game for Derek Henry. At first glance, this probably doesn't seem that relevant, but like it is for Henry as a past catcher because Hillary had played around 35% of snaps in the two games leading up to this one. Henry's snapper is on 55%. Week 14 specifically, Henry had a 76% snap rate, 17 carries, and five targets. The five targets specifically, that's huge. He was very good on the ground as you saw during that game. The Jags actually been pretty good against the rush overall this year. So that was, I think, encouraging for Henry because the Titans passing or rushing offense has been bad from an efficiency perspective. Henry has five targets from the 34 yards. So are we bumping up Henry if Hilliard misses time? I think so. He's still efficient on the ground. He had almost 50 yards over expectation, 2.4 on a per carry basis. I think Jamal Williams had like 2.3 yards per carry. Thank you. Didn't you tweet me like negative 46 rushing yards over expectation? Or was that a slide? I did not tweet that because I don't tweet, but I should have tweeted it, but that was the lowest output of any single game for running back this year. Why are they giving carries to, okay, I'm flipping it. Why are they giving carries to Jamal Williams when they've got Justin Jackson on the roster? I got to take the thing people did with Justin Jackson, the best running back on the Lions and spin it the other direction now. Go cats. But yeah, with Henry, we like, he's still an efficient rusher. If he gets the targets, like he's back on and I'm not saying like he was unplayable or not really in a consideration set, but there's a big difference because Derek Henry. And I know that the is to like link him to Nick Chubb and say that they're very similar, but like those guys at times can play like 55% or 60% of the snaps and that's very different than like having this guys playing 75% of the snaps. So, I think this is a bump up for Derek Henry and I feel good in saying that. If you put Nick Chubb at a 75% snap rate, I'd pay a lot for him with like, you know, give him five targets instead of zero ever for the full season. That's a game changer. Yeah. He faces the Chargers next week. I know that they played well on the ground last night, but like, well, Miami just didn't even bother trying to run the ball. They're all so bad. They're just a bad rushing team. And I know Tennessee has not been great, but they're better than Miami. Like, I'm not going to ask you to name that sour. We can do that too. But like over under. In the Sunday million, 27.5% roster rate for Derek Henry. Slightly over. Slightly over. I think I agree because people are going to talk to them justifiably talk themselves into, oh, he's going to go nuts. Now name me a sour. If we assume there's no Hilliard. I already saw it. I did too. He's 89. Do you think that's fair? I was probably going to say 9000. So yeah, I think so too. And having both him and Jamar Chase around there, that makes me feel good about the studs for next week at an early glance. So I think that's going to be in like, I'm guessing Mike Williams and Keenan Allen won't have super, super high salaries. We can get a little game stack in there and not blow everything. So I'm into that for sure. Jeff Wilson left Sunday night's game with a hip injury was ruled out. He got card into the locker room. So didn't look good there where he most around a plane 74% of the snaps resulted in just 44 yards. We had interest in most earlier this year before the Wilson trade. Would you go back to him if Wilson misses time now? This is starting to feel like, I mean, they don't quote me on this, but it feels like the Buffalo Bills where like, they're tied to a really good offense. Now there might be one. I mean, most are played what, 74% of the snaps over. We had a 57% route rate, but just one target. So one target on 17 routes. Is he ever going to burn? Like, he gets the ability to burn us as a player. Yeah. 122 yards in scrimmage in week five, which is better than any bills running back has had this year. And Wilson had, I think, 146 at one point in a game. So I think that your comp is broadly correct. Yeah. I think it's just like, it's like a slightly more juiced up version. And I mean slightly. Yeah. Not a lot more juiced up, but I think that's probably pretty fair. So like, if I contextualize it that way. Yeah. I could not really be sure if the salaries are about 67. Yeah. I would need it. And they get the bills next week, sir, on the Saturday slate. We might need to save salary there. So like, because of the three game slate, you might be forced into it. But like, if it's a full slate, I think that I probably would view it somewhere to the way I viewed Deontae Foreman coming into this week where it's like, yeah, he's a consideration if I need to save salary and want to differentiate a bit, but I'm not super itchy to get there. I think that's kind of the way I view him there. I'm not going to push back. This team, I don't think really once they're running the ball very much and they can't. They can't. And like, kind of looked like he had the yips to the first half last night. He played better in the second half, but like, it was hard to play worse. Yeah. So that's concerning. Yeah. As someone who likes to a lot, it's uncomfortable to watch. Yeah. And like, you don't have to make everything about, I don't know what I'm saying, like, is your franchise quarterback? Like, you see that stuff all the time. And I'm like, the last time I made it feel like it wasn't particularly close. Yeah. It was a weird week of discourse. Also, again, I like to a lot. Oh, yeah. For Tua, I'm taking Justin Herbert, but like, it was annoying discourse. I, I like both guys and I just wanted that to be that. And I, but the Tua thing is very unsettling. The, the yips recently it seems like, any thoughts on playing, but yeah. He's been kind of banged up most of the year. Waddle, I think I'm actually more worried about because he's been playing through injuries and didn't get a lot of users last night. So you could easily bounce back and like go nuts against the bills, but I think I might be more worried about him than Tyreek, honestly. Those guys got like no separation. Even Tyreek on that sideline touchdown wasn't, he wasn't. He had more separation on the fumble recovery than he did on most of his, his passes. Yeah. Damian Pierce suffered an ankle injury and couldn't return. Lovey Smith said after the game that he couldn't return, like specifically use that word, which implies it's probably a legit injury. After Pierce played his final snap in the fourth quarter, Houston ran just 12 plays, three running backs at a touch, two carries and a target for Rex Burkhead. Daria Gumbawale had a target, you know, Benjamin and a rush. We can continue to avoid this backfield, right? Yeah, skip them. Okay. Tyler Huntley was ruled out for the game due to a concussion. Brown had just six drop backs and struggled. He had competent efficiency stats last year in Oregon and he ran a lot, but it's not ideal. I'm not breaking news by saying that JK Dobbins returned to the majority role for the Ravens backfield. 43% snap rate, 15 carries for 120 yards and a touchdown. As expected, no targets for Dobbins. We, that's just kind of the baseline with running backs of this backfield. So he's kind of back to the JK Dobbins at all, but alongside a third string quarterback instead of Lamar Jackson, potentially. So Dobbins showed life, but obviously there are drawbacks there. And now we tied, maybe tied to a third string quarterback. Where are you on Dobbins right now? Cause I think we could just say no Mark Andrews right now, right? Yeah, no Mark Andrews. Dobbins, Dobbins is always borderline with Lamar Jackson beside him anyway. We don't really play guys who have no ability to catch passes and not ability, I should say, but like no opportunity to catch passes is more accurate. So I mean, I guess if like Dobbins was staring us in the face, they're like 6400 and we really were strapped for value, I'd consider it, but it's on a Saturday slate. So against Cleveland, who can't stop the rush. So I could do that. That's much more viable. Yeah. Yeah. If he's 64, I think that'd be enough. Like hypothetically, I don't think the Saturday slate's up yet. Hypothetically, would you do Dobbins at 64 or most rate at 67 and their respective matchups for Saturday? These salaries that we just, yeah, we made up in our house. I would do. Actually, disregard salary. Just who would you prefer? I probably lean Dobbins. It's like guaranteed work. Yeah, I agree. Better matchup, stuff like that. Yeah. Okay. Mike White got obliterated. I got hurt twice, let the field became back both times. Corey Davis also ruled out for the game early for the Jets. White went to the hospital after the game, did fly back with the team, apparently. No word yet, and he'll be able to go. We also don't know if it would be Joe Flack or Zach Wilson if White were to miss time. Davis leaving led to a big opportunity for Elijah Moore. He had a team high at 10 targets and a 92% route rate. Garrett Wilson got 78 yards on seven targets. Nobody else above 35 yards. So we like Garrett Wilson. But do you think there is enough juice in this passing offense to consider going to Elijah Moore now that his role has expanded for a second consecutive game, I will say. The targets were down last week in terms of like target share, but his snaps were up. Now he had snaps and the targets. So is there enough here to be okay with two guys and is that still viable if it's Joe Flacco starting? Um, I mean, they threw a lot with Flacco, but that was not necessarily. Except we're down 30 against the Browns and came back and won. Yeah. Yeah. It was ugly. He came in for like five, like a couple of plays on Sunday and it was hideous. Yeah. It was tough. I think he got sacked on the first play. Maybe fumbled it. I don't remember that. Like that viral clip of when Tom Savage started to Sean Watson's first game in the NFL and there's a clip. I think it was from Roto Pat, Pat Doherty. It was like Savage like doing a dropback and it looked like he was moving in slow motion. That's Joe Flacco. It's not great. I'd rather have Zach Wilson than Joe Flacco. I'm like, I know that's egregious to say, but I'm saying it. So like, I think the real question here is, like, if you larger more is in like the mid to upper fives, like I'm okay with it just because we never have options down there and he's a good football player, despite the fact that he hasn't been on the field for a lot of the season. I think this is the bigger thing here is Garrett Wilson. Like, he's been really good. Kind of, I just throw the, like the classic Brandon Cokes comp on him where it's like, he's the only piece of it, of an offense that's worth targeting, but the downgrade here and the elevated salary that he's been at, I think might just make him someone that I don't consider. So you meet a salary on those two guys. I saw them. You, so you do it on both. Well, they play the lines next week. Yeah. Playoff implications are both teams, as we all expected. Yeah. I would be comfortable rostering Wilson. Comfortable 66. I don't think we'll be there more like, I hope like 57. Are we assuming with Joe Flacco starting? Sure. Okay. Because Garrett Wilson 78. Okay. I was, so I said like, I'd be comfortable at 66. I assumed he'd be like 72. I don't know. He would send me to this past week. Right. I didn't think it'd be much of a change. Yeah. No, I went up. Why? Lions, I'm assuming. I guess. I also think that he was popular again this week. So, you know, it makes sense. But like, the thing is like people, what like, he's like one of the guys, like a Brandon Cokes where it's like, you can play him like, we'll get his targets. He's productive. Again, not brand. We need a better comp. I need a better comp than that. But yeah, like early career Brandon Cokes is awesome. I think it's a better comp. Yeah. But wow, I did not expect that. So I'm not going to play Garrett Wilson. I think Elijah Moore is going to be really popular this week. Yeah. Given the, it's two straight weeks of increased snaps, one week of increased targets, but he hasn't had any yardage. Yeah. And like at some point that has to matter. Like, Yeah. Can you like, he did have three deep targets this week. He had two, each the previous two weeks. Maybe I'm disregarding. I don't know. Maybe I should be higher on him, but. If he does wind up tracking to be popular, I think that it's okay to be skeptical. If that happens. Can you, did you tell me a salary yet? 56. I think I've closed it. So. 56. I'm more like, I'm substantially more likely to play a lot. Oh, I agree. Yeah. What salary would you have put Wilson at, like with a downgrade? 74, probably. So, so you still want to bump him up from where he was. I thought he was a little bit on their side at 72 against, if it were against the lions against the bills. 72 is probably about right. Yeah. I, I don't know. I still feel like anything in the approaching 7,500 and an offense like this, I don't want parts of it. So. Yeah. I think he's just really good. I'm okay. Yeah, he is. Again, I, I know I said 66. That's where I'd be comfortable with like Joe Flacco, which I know was like a pipe dream, but I assumed he was going to be at least seven and probably 72, but what if it's Mike White, like hypothetically he bends his body back. I'm not going to get there at 78. I don't think I can do that. Fair enough. Baker Mayfield made his Rams debut this week and helped lead them to victory. He was, wait, are we in rule changes? Did I skip stuff? Wow. How did I get down here? I skipped like 16 things. I'm going to go back up on the rundown. What a moron. Maybe you should hope. Maybe I should eject myself. I also get injured and warm up. You don't want me to host. Kenny Pickett ruled out with concussion for the Steelers. Very different vibe. Mitchell Trubisky came in and threw three picks, but overall numbers actually were not as bad. I don't think as the three picks would indicate. I know whatever. He got the Ante Johnson eight targets. No, no, no, no. He threw three picks, but like it was pretty good. I didn't say pretty good. I said, then you'd think it's three picks. I'm not defending Mitch Trubisky because I respect my but you are defending the Ante Johnson. I am not eight targets for 82 yards. His most since week three, let that settle in despite having like 87,000 targets in that time. Nobody else had more than four targets. So I never really got here outside of Pat Frymuth times with this offense of Pickett. I think it's a downgrade to Trubisky. I'm assuming this wouldn't change with him. Correct. Correct. Okay. I mean, I'm not playing the Ante Johnson, but I'm surprised that he got 82 yards. That tells me a lot. Correct. That's a big part of it. What did Naji do here? We're talking about him later. Okay. I have a note on him in situations to monitor. Well, I'm surprised you're not already there. Based on how you've been treating this run down. Yeah. Salary scroll. Note to future me. Don't skip parts of the run down. Minor one, but Daniel Bellinger had a rib injury. Richie James also left with a concussion very late. So I didn't actually hear if he was in concussion protocol or not because he just didn't have time to come back. But James led the team with nine targets. Isaiah Hodgins had six. Darius Slayton had just three targets. And it wasn't a Darius Slay thing. As only 26% of the Raptor Slayton came against Slay. This is a very confusing natural. I hate it every time. Darius Slayton versus Darius Slay. So the banged up giants get more banged up. Do we need to like cross off this offense potentially including sake one because there are so many freaking injuries here. I was going to say one we should have noted. I didn't put this on. I should have. But his snap rate was about 32%. As he was playing for that neck injury. And partly because they're getting torched. But yeah. 32% 48 yards on 13 adjusted opportunities. So that's tough. But yeah, I mean, like I'm low on this offense. Again, I kind of treat it like the other new New Jersey team. I feel we're calling the New York teams, but they're called New York, I guess. I think that's your out. I think. Yeah. But again, I'm just so a little astonished that Garrett Wilson salary is 7,800. Yeah. I get it. People like him. He's good. He's a rookie. He's fun. But yeah, it's a little high for sure. Okay. Let's dig into role changes for this week. The Chargers finally got to see them with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Both those guys had at least 92 yards. Williams had six targets. Allen had 14. Williams had two deep targets. Allen did have four deep targets last week. So it's not like you can't get them just didn't hear us. Neckler still got his eight targets and turned it into 104 yards and scrimmage. Also in the late of 19 red zone chances. Justin Herbert average 0.13 passing net expected points per dropback, which is better than his full season number. Still a bit above average overall eight out was 5.4 because Joe Lombardi hates us. So it's an upgrade for Herbert to have both these guys here, which I think because we're upgrading the offense, it makes it a lateral move for Eckler. Despite the fact he might not get as many targets. I think that the potential for more red zone chances or for the team is good. So I'm very okay with Allen Williams despite some imperfections. What's your view of this Chargers offense having seen these guys together once again. I like them. Love Mike Williams. He's like a highlight reel waiting to happen. Four down throw targets for him, which I have his 10 plus yards Jim uses 16 plus. So I have Keenan Allen with two of those, but Allen's eight out overall 4.3. So like, not going to, not going to do a whole lot there, but I'm not that worried about like the eight out for Herbert. I might go through and look at eight out without running back targets. Cause like I would imagine Herbert's fine. He just throws so much to Austin Eckler underneath and He had 5d targets and like 60 throws last night. I mean, he got also like the fact that he's sorry to running back as that much is actually annoying for in terms of his upside. He got Mike Williams a 14.7 yard a dot. He got Josh Palmer a 14.8 yard a dot on six targets each. That's fun. I think, I think a lot of like, so you had him with what five downfield targets, you said. So I have him at 12 a few, if you make the cut off 10 yards, I think it's more intermediate throws than just DP use. So I'm not that concerned. And again, it's kind of like we like catches for running backs. We like carries for receivers. I'm okay with like dump offs to a running back who can like pick up 10, 12 yards on a, you know, just doing nothing for a quarterback. Maybe that make, maybe that's the new combo. Like how many easy throws does he get in a game? How many points do you get for an easy, easy completion that goes for 10 yards? Like you get 0.2 points. I actually don't know how many points I should know that but 0.25. I think it's like, I don't know, whatever. Wait, it's what it's a, I don't know. We're not doing this matter right now. Like it's just not worth that much. And like they're not really capable of generating explosives except to big Mike. So like, and I think Keenan could too. I just, I think the eight odds annoying. I think the fact they can't run is a blessing because it means they're going to throw a ton, which can kind of mask some of the issues of the eight odd. So name me a salary on Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. How many yards do you think Justin Herbert has thrown for in his past two games each? I don't know. I don't know. I honestly don't know. Like just ballpark it. I have no idea. I'm not going to guess this. So he's got 367. He had against Miami 335 against the Raiders on 51 and 47 attempts. Exactly. You need that number of attempts from to like be good for DFS. Oh, I used to met MVP last night. Do you think he's going to get that number of attempts? He's had 51, 47 and 47 passes. Because they can't pass three games. So yeah, you'll probably get there. Because you are dependent on a very specific script. If they get ahead, he's done. Whereas if the, if most other teams get ahead, like Jill and her, it's still through while playing from head yesterday. Like there are more paths to them being good. They're not dependent on 67 pass attempts to get there. Since that's had their win probability is 78% at halftime. But like it was a one score game. Also 70% is not that big. So like you're worried that, like that they're going to get up 21 points at halftime because of a guy who can't throw the ball down the field. He can throw the ball down the field. He doesn't have explosive wide receivers. It's not a Herbert thing. It's an offense thing and personnel thing. It's not about Herbert. I know we can throw it down the field. That's why it's so frustrating. He could be amazing for DFS. They didn't put him in a freaking cage free my boy. I still have interest there. Okay. If he had the 335 yards in like the multiple touchdowns, he doesn't have to line up. That's all. Okay. Well, he's not scored more than 28.76 Fandal points this year. He's been under 20 in most these games. That's not a Herbert problem. That is an offense problem and it's annoying. Could you read the first line of this blurb again to me? The Chargers finally got a full game out of Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Okay. Cool. He went for 18 Fandal points. Sick. Like game changer. He went for 367 and just happened to have one touchdown. Yeah. Do better. But in all seriousness, name me a salary on Keenan and Mike Will. Keenan probably like 81. He gets a billion targets. Okay. Mike Williams, much more volatile. I'd be like 75. I was going to say 76 for Keenan and 73 for Mike Will. Because Mike Will is like, his volume is real slim. Keenan is 8,000. That's, you know, that's right where you were. And then Mike Will is 72. I like that. So Keenan Allen or Garrett Wilson? Like, I don't think it's a conversation, right? I'd go Keenan Allen. Yeah. Even at the respect of salaries. Yeah. Yeah. I'm saying like Garrett Wilson is almost Keenan Allen salary. Yeah. I'm just, you know, I feel, I feel weird with the 66, but that was a comfort level thing. My expectation was like the 72. I just, that's weird. With the Herbert stuff, I don't think he's out of play. I'm just frustrated that like it requires so much volume to him to get to 20 Fandle points. And that's kind of the same thing with Keenan too. Honestly. He is very dependent on getting, but like he's probably going to get those. So like that's true for both of them. I just wish there were some Iota of like explosion in this offense. That's all I asked for. And it's again, it's not a Herbert problem. It's a Joe Lombardi thing. But anyway, Joe Nixon returned for the Bengals after Sommage, a PRIN played well in his absence. And PRIN had a legitimate role. A PRIN is on the field for a two minute drill at the end of the first half. Nixon played a 59% snap rate, PRIN 43%. Nixon also had 14 carries and two targets for 106 total yards. PRIN four carries and five targets for 24 yards. But did score any red zone carry overall three red zone chances for PRIN one for Nixon. Where you at on both these guys right now? I don't really like care about coaches and I honestly could name only a handful of coaches because it's not part of my process. I just don't care. But I will, I will never forget the name Sack Taylor because of the T Higgins injured and warm-ups thing and then he still plays a snap. Well, there's that. And then he comes out this week and says, look, you know, Sommage has been good, but Joe Nixon's are starting running back last game out. He had five touchdowns. That was a strong vote of confidence. Yeah, Nixon did have this almost a 60% snap rate. So it was about 60-40 there. But at halftime PRIN out snapped Nixon partially because of that two minute drill. But which, you know, is part of Joe Nixon's situation before the injury and before PRIN broke out past catching back on the field for two minute drills. I get that. But this was, this was rough for this whole team. And I don't think I'm into Joe Nixon like I was this week. I thought he was a really good play coming back because usually people are low on players returning from injury. I thought there was a strong vote of confidence for Joe Nixon's role. And I didn't really see it this week. Do you think this will be the new role going forward status quo with like a 60-40 split? I mean, like you, you can make the case. Okay. It was his first week back. Yeah. And so he was a bit limited, but, you know, I wouldn't be shocked if it's somewhere the last year where like PRIN is like, they're two minute back. They're third down back. And that's probably like 60-40 split. So like, I don't think that's out of the, out of the question. I will note that Nixon still had a lot of upside last year, despite that role. So if his side were to come down, I'd still be interested. The Bucks next week is a really tough spot. But I'd have interest like broadly in him, even if the role does come down, as long as the salary comes down too. Yeah. Give me a salary that you feel comfortable with. 77. 81. Okay. I mean, if it weren't for the Bucks, I'd probably go higher, but it is the Bucks. So I can't, that's kind of where I'm at right now. Yeah. It's actually time for me to talk Baker Mayfield for real this time, made his Rams debut and helped lead the team to victory. He was solidly efficient, finished with 0.15, passing net expected points per dropback. Seven of his 35 attempts were deep. Eight out was 8.0. Maybe we should get Justin Herbert in a Sean McVeigh offense, question mark. Oh, even when he doesn't have good pass catchers, he's still chucking it downfield. Huh. You can actually do that. Tutu Atwell got nine targets. Three of those were deep. Ben Scurronic made a massive contested catch, because why not? Again, hashtag go cats. He's only a Northwestern person if he does as well. When he's bad, he's a Notre Dame player. That's the rule. Eight targets for Scurronic, 89 yards, two deep targets. Van Jefferson also had two deep targets at the game when he touched on as well, but there's four overall targets. This game against a very bad Raider secondary that didn't prepare for Mayfield, but it's still impressive. So is this enough to get you by into any pieces of the Rams offense, which we had both written off previously? No. I'm more receptive to it, but I don't want to actively seek out anything. I think that's where I'm at. Like who would you have most interest in? Van. I know it wasn't like a lot of usage, but like I believe most in his talent. And to what degree? Like do you think is he like just like if he were 55 on a main slate, I'd be like, I suppose maybe I'll get there. Okay. So like you're a little bit higher than me, but this isn't like, okay, like I want to talk about Banja. Correct. It's more so like they were full cross-offs. They are uncrossed, but still not actively being sought after. Yeah. The backfield sucks. Don't go there. But like I am upping them, not to the point where I'm seeking them out, but where I'm, they're no longer crossed off. Like they're better than Texans. Congrats. Hang the banner. Like they've got that going for them in terms of DFS. If it keeps happening and we can get like predictable volume from Tutu, Scurronic, or Jefferson. Cool. Like we can reassess that, but it's an upgrade for sure. Just not to the point where I'm seeking them out. The Cowboys didn't blow out the Texans from the get-go, and we saw that lead to a lot more snaps or at least more snaps for Tony Pollard than Zeke Elliott. Half time, Pollard had out snapped Zeke 23 to 12, which was 68% to 35%. End of the game was 58% to 49% in Pollard's favor. Pollard had 62 yards on 10 carries and five targets. Zeke had 81 yards on 15 carries and five targets. So how does your view of them shift based on what we saw in this game? I'm low here because they're, well, they're both, they're both good. We got to remember that this was not Tony Pollard's backfield. This has been Zeke Elliott's backfield until he was injured, and then it became Pollard's backfield. And now it seems like Elliott's doing enough to remain very relevant and take a lot of high-leverage work. So it's almost back to how I would view this earlier in the season with a slight downgrade for Zeke, which we weren't really interested in anyway, and maybe a slight bump up from Pollard from the beginning of the season, which is a big downgrade from where he was in recent weeks. So I don't want to worry for me, so I can get a vibe on where you're at. With Pollard, I don't care about Zeke. Pollard specifically against the Jags next week, name me a salary. So it's one of those spots where I feel like, and it was almost this week. Well, that's not true because of the matchup, but I feel like with Pollard it's going to be one of the spots where I look at the salary first and then talk myself into it. So I'd say he's probably like 76. That's what you would say? That's what I think will be. What I would be comfortable with is like 72. 72 is 72. But it's a 72 where I'd want exposure in terms, because I think that he still has massive upside. So there are players where they can be, oh, you're shaking your head, is he 8000? 82. And Zeke 75. So is Pollard's upside enough to justify using him at 82? Yes, the upside is, the probability that he hits that upside I don't think is high enough to prioritize that. I think I disagree slightly. I think his meeting expectations bad relative to that salary, but I think it's upside relative to that salary is very good. That's what I said, though. I said his upside is good. I mean like obtainable upside. Like I think that he's more likely to get there than you do. I think is what I'm saying. Okay. Because I agree with. We saw, like I think this Jags rush defense is fine. We saw the Titans with the ball against them and the Cowboys rushing the offense is much better. And we saw Pollard run, he actually run fewer routes than Zeke for two consecutive games. That flipped this week. I think it was like 24 to 13 in routes this week. So I would think that I'd still be a substitute in tournaments, but it had to be at like a 20, 15% exposure kind of thing. I think my biggest concern and I know Tony Pollard can score from anywhere, but I think my bigger concern is the elevated health of Zeke in his red zone potential. Yeah. He looks good too. He's playing well. He's justifying that. How would you compare like Tony Pollard to a healthy, like Aaron Jones or Deontre, like healthy Deontre Swift in the past? I can't remember that. It's been so long, but like compared to Aaron Jones, I think he's the same. Are you rostering Aaron Jones at 82 in this game? This is one of the better games on the slate. So potentially, yeah. Like I'm not going to talk into an out of Pollard and I might get there myself if I end up stacking that game in certain ways, but I don't think he's like, he's not a write down and I think that he's got to write down. No, but he's like someone who is upside is still not nullified by his salary is what I would say. Correct. Okay. Jared McKinnon played great on Sunday. He earned playing time. Good for him. I'm genuinely happy for him, despite the fact that I'm, I like Isaiah Pacheco. I think it's cool. 134 yards and scrunch from McKinnon. A lot of it came on one freakish play from Patrick Mahones, but they leaned on him late in the game too. Pacheco did have 93 yards and a season high three targets. He has 80 yards and I think four consecutive games now, eight or more. Is it time we found the consider McKinnon DFS now though? Maybe how much it, how much of like the workload do you think was script related where they're like, we're not going to run against the Broncos. We're just going to get jerk McKinnon nine targets. Cause he had six, six carries. That could be it. I think this team is okay running because their, their pass rate of expectation has come down. The receivers have been banged up in recent weeks, but maybe this one is a little bit, a little bit more script related and it feels like, if he had Antonio Gibson from like five weeks ago where his role got a lot better, maybe not even five weeks ago, but feels like five weeks ago. And we're assuming that sticks, but it doesn't. We're going to go back the other way. So I think he's very like reasonable, but probably not something I'm like going to prioritize. And they play Houston next week. What's that spread? 90, 14. McKinnon salary and then a Pacheco salary. Give me both. 64 for both. Pacheco is going to be way higher. I thought bad. That's reasonable. Back on 76. I knew, I knew he was going to be, because he's going to be the, he's going to get a lot of work. The Houston bump got it. It's got to be like 10%. And like a huge under favorites. Yeah. Like what, what would you put Pacheco at? 68. I just, I can't, I can't get hit. I can't get there with him because he's not, he's the early downback, but he's not the red zone back. So it's not even like a true Damien Harris situation of years past. Yeah. But he's got yardage at least. And yeah, but I don't, I don't want to roster. It's like he's 68 or 70 used in the red zone. Or yeah. I would, I don't think 68 is a very high salary. So, you know, I think that's pushing like, I need to make sure that this guy's got, he's not going to get yanked in the red zone. I mean, it's the chiefs. They'll be there a lot. I think that that's a difference maker. There's really no true comp for this. There's not. No, but like they're very good. I don't know. 76 is high, but it's high. Yeah. Evan Anger went bananas on Sunday as we all expected. He had more than 150 yards and two touchdowns. Were you going to say something? Did you expect this? No, I was going to say it's not for the T Higgins thing that just had me too annoyed not to lead off with. I was going to say, I did talk, we did a whole trend on the upside of the Jaguars offense. Now I didn't explicitly say that Evan Anger was going to have a career year or a career game. We had a career year in one game. He did it. Yeah. But I'm just saying we did specifically talk about the Jaguars offensive ceilings. So I, I bet the Jags money line. I had the over in that game and I didn't use them in DFS. I'm an idiot. I'm an idiot Brandon. You know this, but I need other people to know this too. Anger 150 yards and two touchdowns his previous season high with 69 yards in games with Marvin and Zay Jones. Anger's target shares of just 17%, which is respectful for a tight end. That ranks third in the team behind Christian Kirk and Zay Jones for both the 23%. Now tied. I think that's also kind of noteworthy. Name that salary for Anger after this outburst. Um, like 57 maybe. Yeah. I think that works. Cause like we want yardage upside a 10 and you know, a buck 50 is a lot. He's $5,500. He's going to get steamed. He is. He gets steamed to H double hockey sticks, man. Um, what about Zay and Kirk? Where are you on that? Uh, this is a tough one. I also think I'm going back to ETN this week. Yeah. I know it's a bad like it's didn't work out, but I'm a little bit worried that the foot thing may be an issue because he's been struggling ever since then, but Titan's very good rush defense. Cowboys are not as good there. So I could see it being a bounce back, especially at that salary. Zay maybe like 66. I'm going to Garrett Wilson's. 63. Um, we're going to be all on the Jags this week. I mean Kirk's been on the Jags this week. I mean Kirk's been up there. Yeah. Uh, 74. I think that's influenced by where his salary was before. Yeah. I thought it was a little high at 76. So I'm, I think 7,000 appropriate for him and he's 71. Okay. Broad takeaway is, uh, we're going to be on the Jags. Uh, Lawrence is 74 in case you're curious, just going to throw that out. I mean, that's just our tagline at this point. Our Jags. The heat check daily fantasy podcast colon. We're going to be on the Jags. We're going to be on the Jags. Although this past week, not enough apparently based on what you just said. Yeah. But like, I think we're going to be there this week and I'm, I'm okay with that. Like I'm, I'm not worried about that with this team. It's fun. Uh, Deandre Swift expanded role was not, uh, from last week, uh, he had a 43% snap rate at halftime wound up at 34%. Swift totaled 39 yards on 10 opportunities. Um, and that's what I gave a 16 carries to Jamal Williams, who averaged 2.3 yards per carry, uh, for negative 46 rushing yards of our expectation, the worst output by any back in a single game this year. Where would you need Swiss salary to be to consider him? Realistically at the Garrett Wilson zone of 66 somewhere around there. Um, because I think there's still potential with the pass catching, this is going to hurt my entire heart to say and I love Jerick McKinnon, but like Jerick McKinnon or Deandre Swift straight up at this point. Um, probably Swift, but like, I don't bear not like Swift. No, not by a lot. It's like, it's Swift, but I don't feel great, great about it. Put a Jess next week. Also, stop complaining about Justin Jackson getting work. He's good. He had like 190 yards against the Texans last year. You know, he's also very good at football though. Uh, Jared Goff, Deandre Swift. Oh, who's salary is 6,600. Oh, okay. Well, that's fair. What's Jared Goff's? I don't know who they play. Oh, they're playing the jets. I don't want that. I just said that. I don't want that. Jared Goff auditioning for his 2023 team. Um, I'm starting, starting that ball rolling right now. Jared Goff and the jets is my new fee for dream. The New Jersey jets. What's that? The New Jersey jets, baby. Yeah, that sounds, that sounds cooler. It doesn't. Um, James Cook's role did not expand in week 14. He was out snapped by Devin Singletary, 27-22. Cook had a slight edge in the first half, but Singletary wound up at 50% versus Cook at 41%. Neither guy had more than 43 yards. My bad. If you're listening to this and I talked to you into James Cook last week, I'm sorry. Um, yeah, you talked me into it. I talked you into it. I shouldn't have, it was a bad bet. Bad play on my part. But if it makes you feel better, dear listener, and you're mad at me for this. A, I get it. You should be. B, it ruined my whole day. Like in terms of like my, my DFS days. So at least I got punished for my sins and you can feel good about that. So I understand your anger, justifiable. I have been punished by the universe. I hope that appeases you. Any thoughts for you in this back? We'll just cross it off. So I think it's more of a broad, like takeaway where this is one of the that I flagged, I guess Monday is like a, or maybe Thursday too, but, um, there's a difference between seeing a role and projecting a role change. We saw a role change for Cook to go from a basically 20% of snaps to about 45% last week. You could nitpick and say like, this was a different role, but they're both 45% last week, 50% versus 41% this week. Basically, I don't think the coaches know, like, the, the, the coaches know, like, that someone's snap rate was up or down four percentage points, but it basically stayed the same. The role, it did not increase. And so there's a big difference between seeing it and projecting it. We projected this one incorrectly. That can hurt us obviously, but it can also help us if we get it right. So I'd rather be too early and mess it up than be too late and miss out on like high upside stuff. Yeah. Cause these guys are going to be a low salary. So, you know, it is what it is. But again, it's just an important reminder because we're going to see a lot of this down the stretch where like someone gets a slight bump and like, oh, this guy's like to the moon. Right. And it's like, no, that's just his new role is like, he's just to the core. Yeah. To the core. Zonovan Knight did silver role with Michael Carter back in action, but true committee by snap rates. But Knight had the majority of the rushing work and Carter was receiving back. Carter led and snap rate 51% to 47%. Knight had 17 carries, including both the carries inside the red zone and two targets. Carter five carries and six targets. He had one out of three red zone targets. Are you going to either guy here? Cause it's kind of two man committee at least. But this is cross out both guys for you. They get the lions next week, which is important to keep in mind. Two man committee is much better than, you know, two and a half or three, like we're getting with the lions. So that's important to keep in mind. And I would say historically over the years of the heat check, this would not be enough to, to interest me, but it's a different NFL right now, where we're not just loading up on running backs, getting 90% of the snaps. Those don't exist. So these guys are more viable. I'd probably lean Knight cause they came out in the second half and just lean on him to get back on that game a bit. It's not even a lean for me. I think it's definitively night. Like he played well. Carter lost a fumble. No, I'm saying like, I would lean toward playing Knight. I'm not going to play Carter. Yeah. Sorry. That was my, I didn't phrase it how I meant it, but like I would lean toward playing Knight. I'm not going to play Carter. Yeah. Um, give me a salary for, for a night then. 65. I think that's fair. 72. So they just like put expectation for the, for the jets and just like add 700. Yeah. So Joe Flacco is 86, I assume. I searched Joe and it was Joe mixing. He was 81 is like, oh, oh, oh, it's actually 64. So we're good. Yeah. No one will talk me to Joe Flacco this week. Don't you dare even try, but 72 is probably too high. I think. Yeah. Knight or Pacheco at their respective salaries. What was Pacheco? 76. Uh, it's, it's gotta be Pacheco cause the offensive expectations there need the guys really. That's tough. But they're not right downs. Yeah. Would there be a salary that tempt you on Carter? 59. Oh, thanks. Yeah. It's low, but I don't like to get there. I don't think so. Let's talk about the Sunday morning news. Uh, Travis Homer. I thought was going to be the leadback for the Seattle Seahawks. So I had 56% at one point. And then I'm getting set up for the WFFC and see a shifty report that, um, that Tony Jones is going to start and I'm like, okay. It's kind of annoying. I feel like it'll still be Homer for the most part, but I dumped it down to 41%. And then Homer plays every snap for like the first two series. I'm like, okay, cool. Like this actually worked out in my favor. I, I read the situation correctly and it didn't matter. He did nothing. Um, very rarely, chef. He doesn't miss. So like this is just kind of a one-off thing. I'm not going to like, but it's, it was annoying. I would say, uh, the way this one worked. Homer had nine out of 10 running back carries. He had three targets on 26 routes, but only 34 yards and scrimmage 91% snap rate. Homer had three out of four red zone carries for three of nine total chances, but very empty. Sounds like Kenneth Walker may be back for Thursday. Uh, DJ Dallas, I think is less likely to play. Um, but how would you handle Homer if we assume that there's no Walker once again? Um, I mean, it's hard to like block at a 91% snap rate with no, with no production. That's basically exactly what we're doing this recap show for is to figure out who's on the field, but maybe didn't have the best game. Although that, then we would just be talking about maybe not anymore, but Devin singletary like a week after a week. I refuse. I'd quite, you know, let's say there's no Kenneth Walker next week for Thursday night. His, I mean, his salary is not going to be that high. We're going to want to play Christian McCaffrey. So I think you just load up on Travis Homer. I would do that. It's discouraging, but like he gets passing game work. They clearly trusted him. Maybe they wouldn't continue that, but. If it were a main slate, like what salary range would you think 63? Yeah, that's kind of wild for a 91% snap rate, but it's, it's a singletary thing though. You know, like what's it worth? Um, but that's where I'd be. Chris Moore played well for the Texans without Nico Collins and Brandon cooks. He turned 11 targets into 124 yards. Three of those targets were deep. So he worked on Collins and cooks before. Can more get you to finally like a Texans past catcher or no? This seems like doing a two quarterback rotation. Um, I just, I guess the question, it's a quarterback in a former six string wide receiver. Yeah. Let's be accurate here. We strive for accuracy on the heat check. Um, I mean, they did some stuff this week for sure. I guess the question is how interested are you in making sure you can bring back your chief stacks? I have no interest. No interest in these guys. Full respect to Chris Moore. I'm happy for you, but I'm glad you did for 100, went for 125 yards. I don't care. I'm not doing it. I'm not chasing that stupid team. I refuse. Yeah. I'm not doing it. If they're going to play Jeff Driscoll again, I'm gonna send Jesse to a guy who was so bad to quarterback. He converted to wide receiver and then converted back. I'm not doing it. That's not happening. What's more salary? Um, 6000. I'd rather use Elijah more than Chris Moore at that point. Well, there's DJ, more Chris Moore Elijah Moore, Rondo more Skymore. So the way my let Gino Cook stack worked this week was Gino Smith, Dalvin and James Cook. I'm going to pass stacks for one week. I'm just going to go ahead and not do that for a week. Chica Conquo didn't run a ton of routes this week, but got a lot of work and he was good, a shocker. He ran about half the routes, but a season high, six targets, he had a two point conversion as well. So again, the route rate is not great, but he's earning targets, he's getting yards. So with this usage, would you go back to a Conquo of Berks for to miss more time? He had a carry, Jim, man, was in the red zone. There's a Jim carry, let's go, let's go, let's go. Let's not. No, it was not in the red zone. Doesn't matter then. Yeah. I mean, like this, he's super efficient, gets tons of yards per route run, which is like a really good stat, 2.14 this week. I'm assuming he still leads all tight ends that are qualified in that. Austin Hooper played one more snap, ran six more routes, had 68 yards to the 45, didn't score though. But a Conquo, two red zone targets, like I think it's a good spot. So I don't know if you asked me for a salary, but even if you did, I'm going to throw it back to you. Give me a salary for a Conquo. 51. What is it? 51. Oh, cool. I type, but I'm working with a new keyboard, so I always miss the backspace, it's a whole thing. I think that one eye jack productions on YouTube had the proper reaction to your attempted a joke. Just saying womp, womp. I agree. Great. That's good. That was good stuff. It was not. Thank you. I agree with one eye jack for the kind of words. Hey, not a thank you situation. It was a correct assessment of the situation. Let's dive into situations to monitor. What else did I tell you on Sunday or Thursday? Sorry, my bad. Yeah, I didn't have a whole lot of stuff, but James Williams scored, but just 13 snaps, six routes, not there yet. Justin Jefferson though, like this is not, we're never going to talk about Justin Jefferson and role changes, but 12 downfield targets, which I have as 10 plus yards downfield that would have tied him for fourth this week among all receivers and just raw targets. Like, he's so good. His role is so good that, you know, it's time that we realistically consider someone like Jefferson as the answer in, like, as opposed to running back, it's not as safe. I know that, but it's almost impossible to overstate how good his role is and how good he is. Yeah. It's not the same consistency as Cooper Cup had last year, but it's like better, like, I don't know if the ceiling is better, but the ceiling is at least on par with, which is what I want to pay for. So yeah. Yeah. And then I just have some notes on carries from pass catchers, Debo, get healthy soon, but he had four carries. Mack Hollins though, and Ray Ray McLeod, three each. Getting Mack Hollins carries makes a lot of sense to me. It's super athletic. He's fun. Yeah. So that's fun. I love Bob Hollins for me, um, two, two out, well, DG more each had two, more out of one in the red zone. I hope, I hope everything's, you know, working out for, for that team. And then notables with, with a carry, Jamar Chase, love to see it. And I'm on Ross St. Brown also love to see that. But two tight end carries this week, David and Joku and Chiga Conquil. So love it. Love that. Love that for both of them. With Mack Hollins stuff, I forgot to mention that Josh Jacobs is having X-rays on his finger. I haven't heard anything, which probably means it's okay. Yeah. Um, but maybe we just have Mack Hollins play running back. If, if Jacobs misses time, I'd be, uh, into that. I'm cool with it. Yeah. I'm down. Uh, my first note is Miles Sanders. He played 68% of the snaps on Sunday, which is his highest in the game with Boston Scott active 17 carries for Sanders. Uh, those were tied for a second most in those games. It's possible they're going to ride Sanders more in more important games. This might not be a note for the regular season, given how far ahead they are of everyone, but for playoffs, maybe we bump up miles potentially. It could be just variance too, but it's worth noting. I think that is his snap rate was very high on Sunday. Najee Harris got a bit of a role reduction for the Steelers snap rate was just 57%. Jalen Warren was at 40%. I gave some thought to Najee this week. This would put that to bed. He's looked better recently, but I needed snap rate to be hired to be super in there. James Washington made his Cowboys debut and played limited snaps, six total routes in 11 snaps. It ate into both Michael Gallup and Noah Brown a bit though Gallup still ran a route on 83% of drop backs. I think it adds in a little bit extra volatility for Gallup. I'm not worried. He wouldn't put it that far yet, but it's noteworthy to me on Gallup that he did lose a couple of routes there with Washington ramping up. Let's go now to philosophical changes from this week. The Browns remain run heavy and underwhelming offensively. Their second game with Sean Watson, 42% early down first half pass rates. They were below 50% last week as well. Watson was a negative 0.04 passing net expected points per drop back. He did funnel targets to down on people's Jones, David, and Joku though came to the Mark Cooper dealing with an injury he picked up in practice. So it's an efficient, but we know where the ball is going at least. So where are you on this offense, the Browns offense in the short term? Don't like it. Watson looks terrible. Nothing about like the peripherals are pretty bad. It's not to say I won't use the pass catchers if I need them, but they're not really priorities, which feels weird. I do think it was encouraging that Donovan people's Jones had that usage alongside David and Joku because every legit game he's had this year has been when and Joku's been out. So I think that was actually one thing for me was that I would be more receptive to DPJ going forward and games with the Joku based on that usage. I think that did help for me a bit. Yeah, that's like the only change though. Give me a like, so give me a salary for those three pass catchers then. Amari 72, DPJ 63 and Joku 58. They're on the means. They're on Saturday. All right, but I think that's right beyond them. Do you disagree with any of those? Yeah, that sounds good. OK, Panthers went super run heavy in their second game with Sam Darnold early down first half pass rate was 36 percent. It was working though. So like, why not? The problem thing, the problem is that Deontay Foreman played less than half the snaps in the game with a super positive script where they were very run heavy. And the low passing volume led to just three hollow targets. DJ Moore, who again is now banged up, one target for Terrace Marshall. So even with the offense being better now, how skeptical should we be of the actual pieces within it, given the way they were used on Sunday? I don't have a whole lot of interest in this offense. I don't expect them to score a lot of points and expect them to be in the red zone often enough for it to matter. And I am not that worried about it. They face Pittsburgh next week in a game with a 38 and a half point total. So we probably don't have to worry about it that much. Sounds like an easy under recommendation. I don't know. It's pretty low. We'll see. I mean, Sam Darnold versus. Yeah, exactly. Mitch Trubisky, pick six. Palooza, baby from like North Carolina. Or he played college at UNC. Yeah, thank you. And I knew that I was asking if you knew if he was also from the state of North Carolina. I've been typing Mitchell Trubisky and not selling a Trubisky. Oh, he's from Ohio. Because I remember there was a thing in the draft that the Browns didn't take him. So if he ever plays the Browns, he did. That's when he got benched. That was his last game. Never mind. What else did you know on Sunday? So the Chargers with Keenan and Mike Williams this week pass rate over expectation of 16.2 points on the positive end. It's about 10 points higher than their season average. I think they'll stick with just airing it out long term. That makes Herbert more appealing for me. His pass rates been up for a good portion of the year. I feel pretty good with Herbert. I understand the reservations, but I think that it's just a really good quarterback who can overcome some some more intermediate throws than we'd like to see. The Jaguars really pass heavy in positive script this week. Pass rate over expectation on pass and run plays of 7 percentage points. Full season is basically average. They've been trending more pass heavy. Love to see that for these guys and for Trevor Lawrence. For our Jags. Yes, for Jaguars. And then five outlier pass rate over expectations in the low end. Carolina this week minus 9.7 percent. San Francisco minus 9.8 percent. Baltimore minus 12.2. Houston minus 18.1, which we've talked about in the past of like this team maybe being able to ruin games by being so run heavy. And then Las Vegas minus 20.8 percent. What are they doing? Interesting. Oh, with the San Francisco one, too, it's it's important to note that they were negative 9.8 percent. That's accounting for game situation. Yeah. So they were run heavy even when you account for the score, which makes sense. It's Brock Purdy, you know, and they've got Christian McCaffrey, so I wouldn't you be, but I think that's worth reiterating when it comes to Kittle and Ayuk when evaluating them. Let's go to the salary scroll. As mentioned, the Saturday slate not posted. So we'll go to just the Sunday main slate over on FanDuel and go position by position breakdown of things that stand out to you, Brandon, at quarterback. What are you seeing there? OK, we got my home is 91 Hertz, 9000 and then a drop. We only have four total quarterbacks on this 10-game main slate with an eight or nine in their salary to start. Justin Field's salary is down to 79, which is down almost a thousand dollars from its peak. He's facing Philadelphia, so a very good defensive line and their underdogs, but he has scored 20 plus FanDuel points in six consecutive games, including 240 burgers in that time. I think 79 is kind of low, despite how tough of a situation that is. Yeah, coming off the buy, the the only concern I have is that he ran six times last game. He's going to be healthier, but I don't know if they're going to want to scale back his rushing from like 12 to 15 to 18 down to like six. Yeah, keep it there. But even like if you're getting someone a $7,900 salary with like 68 carries as good as he is with his legs. Yeah. And part of the thing is he's got the shorter, but he said his legs were shorter. So buy helps. So the time off probably helps that. So I think that he's a really interesting play and will probably end up on him as a love this week. I also think I'll be on that Jags Cowboys game shocker based on what we were saying before. But Dak Prescott's salary is 75, Trevor Lawrence is 74. I think both those are very, very noteworthy on a slate where there's no Josh Allen. So taking away one of like the and there's no Lamar Jackson's. You're taking away two of like the cyborgs at the position. Mahomes in a spot where they make it ahead. Early Hertz is great at 9000. But he's 9000, you know, can say 1500. I think Prescott and Lawrence may be focal points for me. I would agree with that. I don't see anything else. A quarterback here. Um, we do a Desmond Redder making his debut at 65, which is fun, but like, they're not going to use him, but it's fun. I'm not in not in New Orleans. No. Marcus Mariota's face is right beneath him. And I was like, oh, weird. I think they're using Marcus Mariota's face or Desmond Redder. But I was looking at the wrong, wrong spot. OK, let's go to running back. What do you see there? I think you just see Marcus Mariota's face everywhere you look. I do. The other thing is I'm I can be sad about Mariota. But I also think Redder is fun. So it's kind of like, it's nice that they gave me that. It's like, OK, like, sure, we're taking away your son, but we're giving you like this other fun player instead. So I can be happy still. We're going to get. So we'll get Josh Jacobs, if he's healthy, on a mini-buy against the Patriots off of a short week. But I don't think I'm going to get there at 92. But would you get to the other side of that game? If Damian Harris sits again with Remondry Stevenson, 85 against the. There it is. I very likely would. Would you? I prefer Henry, though, probably over Stevenson, right? Henry, 89 is more, more appealing than Stevenson. I agree that. OK. Miles Sanders, 78. Yeah. That's a good spot, though. If it's if it if it's a legitimate role change that he went, which I'm very skeptical of, I don't think it was. But if it were to be 78, be a pretty good salary. Yeah. I think tries to get a 7000 is like stand out. What what does it what does it say that we glossed over Alvin Kamera? Who at home against the Falcons at 76? Who is that? Is he new practice squad guy getting called up? You got some inside info here. So, frankly, the 7000 range itself is really bad. It's awful again this week. Like it was like somewhat passable this week with like Pollard and E.T.N. But it's really just E.T.N. there that draws my attention. So I was talking about the Ante Forman, how disappointing his role was on Sunday. He did still finish with 21 carries and one target. And he's $64 dollars against the Steelers. Would that interest you at 64 or no? So it's one of those like, again, I hate looking at salaries first and talking myself into guys. I want us want to target guys and be just like, OK, I'm fine with this salary. So be doing the inverse. Yeah, Forman. Yeah, OK. That's not to say I won't like I won't get there, but that's just not a good feeling. Yeah, we did get a note from One Eye Jack over on YouTube about no Mark Ingram for Alvin Kamera. But Kamera's role is trending down before the Ingram injury. And I think that's why I have concern. Like they use about a 76 percent snap rate before Ingram got hurt. So it's a fairer thing to note. But like I still it's really not ideal there. I think there's still some potential like the ceiling. Yeah, yeah, but I can just kind of a guy. And that's also not a game that's easily stackable. So right, right. I agree that. OK, I'm going to switch to receiver because running back is pretty bad down lower. Although Jalen Warren's 51. That's not using that. But interesting. Receiver, what you got there? Jamar, 9000 feels fair. So it is Devontae at 85. I know like the the narrative is that the Patriots will do whatever they can do to stop Devontae Adams. But like and still 85 for a guy who has high likelihood of 11 targets, 11, 12 targets. Does he? Yes. I mean, he should. But yeah, he does. Well, I mean, we can maybe see what they what New England does against Arizona on Monday. Yeah, that's true. It's pretty similar. That's true. OK, what else do you receiver? I'm on raw E4 is a bit high. Like it's fair, but in that matchup, I think is. Yeah, it's better to be an inside receiver than an outside one against the Jets like I've had a lot of fun at DJ Sharp, we've had a good two week fling. I'm not going to be there this week. Unless he were like 52, you know, obviously not that low. But like if they were to not bump him very much, I'd be there. But Keenan Allen might be a cash game, like head to head consideration if I can get there. Yeah. He's better cash gameplay than tournament play. I do it is important to go for ceiling and cash games, too, to make up for mistakes that you made. But I think he's better for that format and fine. I think he has a reasonable ceiling, though. Yeah, it's reasonable. I agree. Man, I'm going to keep you in Devontae Smith. He's seventy two hundred dollars. He's had like eight, eight, nine and eight targets the past. But Dallas Goddard might be back this week, actually. Yeah. But still, like, I don't know, man, seventy two just feels low for him. Mike Williams or Devontae Smith? Target projection, probably similar. I don't know. I like both. Is that OK? I mean, I might end up playing both. Yeah. So what I'm seeing is seven thousand range of receiver between well, I guess we count Keenan, eight thousand, and then Devontae Smith, Mike Williams, Christian Kirk, that is better than the seven thousand range other than E.T.N. at running back. That's kind of what I'm seeing. And you have a seventy one. No, I'm not touching that offense. I know it's Atlanta, but. Yuck, I don't want. I don't want that. Scrolling down the six thousand ranges of wasteland other than Zay, Zay Jones, sixty three. Did you target sixty one? I think that's like appropriate. It's a really tough matchup. But like sixty one's probably lower than he deserves for the the upside he's shown recently. Yeah, I'm OK. Jumping off he winds up being popular this week. But I don't think he's in this range, too. I call gals fifty seven. Like Gallup, Mack Hollins at fifty seven. They're guys I would consider, but not like I am going to plug these these guys in and go from there. Yeah, Elijah Moore is a consideration kind of similar. It's like, yeah, fine. But we never have guys we love in the five thousand range other than DJ Shark. So yeah, so I will say, Julio had a lot of targets this week, yet eight. No, he hasn't had more than fifty three yards since week one. Just kidding. Disregard me. Yeah, I don't know a lot. I might I might honestly have to prioritize and well, no, because I mean, if I don't have if I can't if I don't have any value at running back or receiver, it's going to be hard to prioritize like quarterback and Derek Henry. Yeah, true. OK, tight end. Kelsey's back. Eight thousand. Dallas Goddard comes off I.R. most likely. He is six thousand dollars. Would you consider Taysum Hill 62 or are we done? With that, I don't think I'm going to. It is against Atlanta, which means their touch and expectation is higher, which is kind of the key thing for him. Yeah, I mean, would we get John as John John Johnson's throughout? He'll probably back. I guess like that was part of it, I think, for him. No, because we were on I'm sorry. We I don't want to touch this. I was a bit on Taysum Hill before that. It wasn't just that he was playing more tight. It helped. Yeah. OK. I do think. Oh, Conkwa 51. Once again, is interesting. And Grima 55. I think we flagged both those earlier, but I think both of them seen the slate breakdown. Both of those are still in play. It is only a matter of time before Kelsey drops 30 again. If he does not, if he does not, we have a lot of options to consider. So I think that's I think I'm going to have to go there by default and just pray that Kelsey doesn't torch me or that Kelsey takes trip to the Bahamas and I can use no agrarian 46 and just do that. OK, yeah, that's reasonable. I'll pay for it, Travis, hit me up. Would that be worth it? Would that be a worthwhile tradeoff? Most likely not. I am bad at finance. Please help me. My family is dying. Yeah, I got nothing else. So we do some guys in the five thousand range, though, that work out pretty well and I can get on board with that. Yeah. OK, notes to future me based on what we saw in week 14, based on what we've seen here in a first look at week 15. What are you telling yourself to make sure you remember when you fill out lineups on Sunday? Don't chase bad value. Yeah, I think for me, it might be. Take advantage of under salary games you may want to stack, a.k.a. Dallas Jacksonville. Because it'll allow you to get. Better flexibility in games that are really good with expensive higher salary studs. Yeah, I mean, we talk about this, too, like. Value plays in games you love. And we've talked about, like, the data behind it. That's a that's a much more justifiable play. I'm just thinking about I shouldn't have been on James Cook like I was. I should not talk myself into players based on their salaries. That is that has never worked out for me in the past, basically. Yeah, for the most part, I will say that on the main slate, Jacksonville Dallas is the highest projected offensive efficiency for me next week. So go Jags, go Cowboys, let's party. We're going to talk about that game potentially more on Thursday. Maybe we'll talk about other games. I don't know. I'm decided. I might just make a little rundown about that game. We'll talk to you on Thursday about that. That'll be live on the family YouTube page at 10 a.m. Eastern and up on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast. You'd have to that. So go search for the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast. And while you're there, you like what you hear. Leave us a rating and review as well. Brandon, if people have questions for you on Twitter, where can they find you there? My Twitter at Goodwill13, G-D-U-L-A-1-3. And I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S want to thank you all for tuning in. Good luck to you with your single game slates on Monday. We'll talk to you once again Thursday to get you set for week number 15 and the main slate. This has been the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire.