 Okay, traders, welcome to this week's live analysis session with me, Patrick Mundley. If you can hear me and you can see my screen, the type of why in the chat box just so I know that we're ready to get going. Good stuff. Okay, so before we jump into today's content, first and foremost, we need to adhere to the risk disclaimer. We know that training any financial instrument carries an inherent risk, but more importantly for today's conversation, the views expressed by me today. And the charts look out there. Those are my opinions. They're not indicative of or representative of tick meal UK or tick meal Europe limited. So for those of you for the first time today, brief introduction to myself. My name is Patrick Mundley after I graduated from university I joined a city PLC consulting firm. After a couple of years, learning ropes I left with some colleagues and went on to co found successfully exit a consulting startup, Costa merger in late 2004. And then moved on to explore my passion for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands. I saw a day trading or more appropriately day gambling the S&P after some early beginners luck I racked up some solid some solid then quite significant games in my career. As is often the case, my beginners luck run out. And as the market phase changed, I began to basically average down into losing positions, giving back all of my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six figure hits on my personal capital. Say this was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement really have to stand back and figure out if it's feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading and sort out a mentor with an excellent track record in trading, working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years it was a time during which I up not just my technical game researching and developing a strategy that suited functionality, extensively back testing and forward testing and developing a rigorous risk management approach, the most importantly during this period of mentorship. I significantly developed my mental game and probably the most important watershed shift I made was from being highly goal oriented financial gains focused individual to becoming purely process oriented. Well it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the market in the form of losing Once you become process oriented and have a professional trading mindset and understand the true nature of training, being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities. You lose the emotional investment and that hellish emotional emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcome of individual trades. I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades, or even a small string of trades my focus is on the next 100 trades because I know that if I focus on excellence and execution, my trading edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008 to 2013. I've also been managing investor capital through my managed account service, delivering annual positive returns and those are the returns you can see on the screen there since 2013. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi-million dollar portfolio. So 2010 I've also personally mentored over 100 private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reap consistent returns from the markets. I've consulted to numerous brokers and trading education brands, contributing written content, webinars and live presentation content, or a range of topics from market analysis to trading strategy, development and execution. In addition to my fund management and private mentoring, I'm also a resident market expert for Ticknell, where I provide a daily market outlook and a trade of the day, a chart of the day, a technical pattern that I'm watching in the markets. And you can access these through the Ticknell blog, or you can register your email address to have them sent directly to your inbox. My other, I guess, passion project is as head of trading and trader education for a leading trading education brand called FX CareerSwap, offering development and funding to retail trading talents. We don't just develop retail traders market and trading strategy knowledge. We work on mindset development through our structured program that culminates in managing the firm's capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. For those that are interested, I have just, you can see on the screen here, we've got the telephone number for the trading desk in London. There's also an email here, which you can send an email through to the guys in London and they'll come back to you with more information about what we offer at FX CareerSwap. Okay, so that said, let's jump into the charts. Actually, first thing, once you just check back in with this S&P chart that we talked about last week, or that we looked at. This trend line that I highlighted did ultimately get tested and we did get a nice bullish reversal from there. And we've seen some follow through and we're consolidating now. So I jump on to the intraday time frame as we can see a bit more clearly where the next opportunity might be. But what I'd be looking for now with respect to these equity indexes is we consolidate and potentially pull back to test the essentially the 50% retracement of these of these moves that we saw off the trend line support. So we have the level on the S&P that I'd be paying attention to is moved back down into the pivot here at 3750s. Watch for bullish reversal patterns there, set long positions, ultimately targeting a move back through the prior highs and up to test trend line resistance towards 3930. At this stage, the bullish view on the S&P would only come into question if we take out this trend line here back towards 3700s. So we have a similar scenario with respect to Dow Jones and so you can see bullish consolidation. So watch for a break and a close above this trend line as an opportunity to do something on the long side in terms of terms of the Dow here so we can expect maybe a little bit more back and filling and then looking for a break. Let me get a retest there of the prior highs at 31300 and then look for an extension higher next target will be up towards 32000s for the Dow Jones there, the DAX, similar story. So we have some back and filling here in terms of the DAX so for this impulsive move so we can anticipate or reasonably expect even that we could see a retest of this trend line or on route to let's just bring in the fibs looking at the tradesman levels. Let's put something into this 13600 area and then watch for bullish reversal patterns there to set long positions targeting a move through the prior highs and certainly looking at 14200 as the next reasonable upside objective. The next story here in the Nikkei 225 let's just see what this trend line so we could anticipate here, maybe we have triangle developing a bullish consolidation pattern. And so we could see a little bit more to the downside here and maybe a test of this third test and then we get the bullish extension in terms of the Nikkei. Let's pay attention to this trend line this comes in at the moment at 27800 which will bullish reversal patterns in around here to look at long positions dollar index. The dollar has been on a bit of a squeeze here higher in terms of recent price action but these two key pivots here. The Nikkei 222 and 908992 had a symmetry swing objective or sorry an equality objective at 9145. We've also got the 91 40 which is the weekly range resistance, and we're seeing a bit of a pullback here now in terms of the dollar. Whilst we are support whilst we find support at the 91 level. I'm still looking for a test or I still be looking for a test of this 91 77 to complete the bigger ABC corrected move before then we can be thinking about potential resumption of the downtrend in terms of the What's what would negate the idea that we test that 90175 area is if we take out this trend line support and a closing basis, then we can anticipate that the correction is complete from this area at the 90145. And then we'd be looking for a retest and a break of the lows at 8923. Gold here back retesting support. We're in a range here at the moment in gold 1875 and 1803. So really what we want to see is we are going to get a close below the 1803 and if we do. And that's going to give us a downside target in gold, which using this, these pivots here would set up a move to the downside in gold down towards projected monthly range support at 1719. And that would be the equality objective coming in there in gold. However, at the moment we just it's really no man's land so not much, not much interesting gold at the moment silver, obviously was pretty, pretty popular scores the end of last week with respect to this reddit retail trading crowds, but traded into weekly and monthly projected range resistance and we saw sharp pullback. Now we've pulled back into the midpoint of the prior range here, just bring in a box. So let's think about this as our range that we have been trading in. You can see that we've, what we've actually done. So this is going back to beginning of this year. So what we've, what we've actually done is we've come straight back into the 50% you can see from the box straight back into the middle. So that's the monthly projected range support now. And we've got the monthly pivots, and we're at the yearly pivot. Now if we can hold here, and actually take out the 27 22 on a closing basis, then there is a chance that we can extend and target a retest of the $30 level and potentially higher than that. So it's a key key test here for silver, and one that you should certainly pay attention to do one I'm paying attention to is for this close back through 27 20 and you very tight in terms of risk reward you just risk risk a dollar here in terms of silver, you'd have a protective stop just below these lows, and then you'd see a prices can extend back up through the $30 level. So keep an eye on silver crude oil. We took, we achieved the $55 target that I was talking about last week, potentially now we can squeeze higher, maybe get up into the 57 57 30 area which is the projected daily range of systems what I'm actually looking for the area that's of interest to me now will be any trade correction back into these prior highs at the 53 80. And we've also got this ascending trend line support in play here. So any bullish reversal patterns from this area would be would be of interest to me in terms of the long side. I'm looking for a test of $60 as the next upside target in terms of crude oil copper consolidating held the quality test at the 349 level. What I'd look for now in terms of copper is a break of this descending trend line. So close through there is an opportunity for then copper to extend and certainly retest the prior resistance up towards 373 also got monthly range resistance coming in there so like him to get a bit sticky up there but certainly close through the pivot here at 359 would give an opportunity on the long side. Bitcoin. I think the, the quality objective, we've seen some erratic trade and we're really just mid range now. So, it's not particularly exciting to me at this, this stage anywhere and I really trade this up the daily charts. So it's not something I'd be trading on the four hour chart. Certainly bullish above 28,000. Well, let's say 28,700. And I'm looking the target I've got the interim target is into the mid 44,000 level. You can see we've got projected weekly range resistance 43,000 monthly up to 4658. So that's where we're at with Bitcoin dollar yen. I'm looking to fade this move in terms of the dollar yen now think we've achieved we've exceeded the quality objective so this is our low here. I'll swing high and my reaction low you can see we've, we've stalled out here and we're starting to lose a bit of momentum. We've got divergence developing here. I think this next extension through the 80 level in terms of the RSI stochastic watching for bearish reversal patterns we've got the yearly pivot at 105 55 we've got projected weekly range resistance 105 70. I'm looking to, I'm looking for any move into this area with bearish reversal patterns to set short positions. And I certainly think we can be looking back into 104 40104 20 as as interim targets in terms of terms of dollar yen. Okay, similar story here with the swissie we've, you can see we've just exceeded the quality objective 90 six we're running into daily range resistance, 90 30 daily R three here at 90 37, and then we've got the monthly range resistance just above at 90 50. So again, I've, I've initiated a position in swissie and I'd like to add to this on any bearish reversal patterns in this area to, to certainly target a retest back down to test the break breakout level here at 89 20 dollar CAD bearish dollar CAD right below this trend line you are you'll remember from last week I talked about how we moved straight into the quality objective and sold off. So whilst we hold below 28128 80 and certainly below this trend line. I'm looking for us to extend lower in terms of the dollar CAD certainly going to move back down into this one 2685 and maybe we'll resume the downtrend in terms of terms of dollar CAD. Looking for the euro versus this swing high now at 120 189 we have an equality objective at 1893. So, whilst we trade today below the daily range resistance. So let's go back to 2046 watch for a test of this 1893 this would be a pivotal test for the euro, see a quality objective, and more often not you'll see corrections terminate at this area and so what we're watching for is bullish reversal patterns here to set, set long positions. We obviously see a little squeeze here in terms of long so it's going to wash down some of the weaker hands, and then maybe we can see the euro uptrend continue. Looking for the euro yen here to get a test into this interim ascending trend line support. We've also got on the daily chart. You can see we've got this trend line from the lows last May so that comes in at 125 60 so anything in the euro yen 125 60 to 126 here would be interesting. We've also got the updated daily range support 125 80 daily S3 125 80 so any move into this area and the bullish reversal pattern. I think there's an opportunity to look to get long the euro yen certainly look for a retest of 127 20. We've also got got clattered with the the BOE interest rates decision where they did when they're they're exploring negative rates but doesn't look like they're going to be doing anything anytime soon so another leg to the downside here in terms of euro sterling. Remember from that weekly chart I'm actually looking for the euro sterling to get a test into the 86 area. We've been watching that very carefully for for a longer term trade in terms of euro sterling but nothing to do immediately. So let's check in with some of these sterling crosses. I posted this is the chart of the day today we traded just shy of the trend line was this is big bullish reversal candle now and look for this euro or sorry sterling on to take out 183 to start more significant move to the upside. This is a sterling big reaction here. I was actually looking earlier to when I was marching this chart looking for a pullback to see if we get a test of this 135 area looks less likely now so as if we can get a big daily reversal here, then I think we get this move up into the 139 and then from there back certainly see 13750 again. So see where we close on the daily candle let's let's pull that up actually just see if we can get a nice outside reversal candle here pinbar. I want to see it close through the pivot here 13682 certainly looking looking bullish now for sterling sterling yen is a trade I've got running. I posted this is a chart of day actually today the sterling Aussie was a chart hit. So I'm long at the moment from from this 143 55 area, and I'm looking certainly for a test of 14450. And then the weekly range resistance 145 of the interim targets I've got for that sterling in long position on running sterling Swiss. Again, I was looking for a test of the trend line we haven't got it we're extending here watch how we trade up into this 123 50 weekly range resistance 123 70 is weekly are three. And I know we've got some momentum divergence here in terms of the site indicators so caution into that area in terms of sterling Swiss sterling Kiwi. So that big inverse head and shoulders pattern that that I referenced we've seen a great reversal there from what could be the right. So this is this being our left shoulder, this double bottom being our head, this being our right shoulder. So I'm going to pay attention to this sterling Kiwi see where we close today. As I might look to add this on the long side. Let's take a look at the daily chart. So you can see it's, you can see it more clearly here. So if we can get nice outside reversal candle take out the 1930 on a closing basis and then look to to go long sterling Kiwi. And we can certainly think about testing the weekly range resistance first at the 192 area, then onto monthly range resistance, 194 50, and then potentially the yearly pivot that comes back in at the prior highs at the moment 9770 would will be reasonable upside objectives so pay attention to the close today on sterling Kiwi. The Aussie looking for the Aussie is in a complex correction here and what I'm looking for was we trade below 7703 is the equality objective weekly range support. Down at 75 and from there I get to be getting bullish again in terms of the Aussie so let's see where let's see how we trade them on if and when we get a test of the 75 level. Equally, if we can take out this 77 pivot to the upside, then I get constructed from those levels as well for higher prices in terms of the Aussie. Ultimately, I'm looking for a test of the 80 handle in terms of in terms of the Aussie Kiwi. A triangle developing here I mean this looks like we could get a breakout potentially. So if we get a close through 77, sorry, 72 30, then I'm going to get, so I'm going to be looking to get long the Kiwi and certainly retest the price at 73 and then we can look up towards monthly range resistance at 73 50 will be the next upside objective but need to get me to take out this 72 30 on a closing basis to suggest that this bullish consolidation pattern is completing and we can resume and move to the upside Kiwi yen area of interest for me here is that's just so yeah what I've been watching for this this Kiwi yen is any move up into this zone here so we've got daily range resistance 76 13 daily R3 76 34 and predicted weekly range resistance at 76 35 watch for bearish reversal patterns there to see a short term exhaustion in terms of the Kiwi yen and potential certainly to pull back into the pivots here pivot cluster down to or 74 90 Kiwi Swiss. This is what I've got running at the moment. What I was looking at is this second so we've got the trend line running here. We are looking to get a close back below it but not at the moment if we take out the monthly range resistance on a closing basis I'll cut my position, but I'm holding it at the moment, got some divergence down here. And we, again, let's see how we trade up the monthly range resistance in daily range resistance just above us so keeping that Kiwi Swiss on the go at the moment Kiwi CAD watch for a potential double top here with weekly range resistance just above 9259. This could, this could be interesting if trade up into here and bearish reversal patterns to set short positions looking for a 19 160 will be the objective there. And that is that's the chart pack for me this week. We're really paying attention to this dollar and and see if we can get see if this is squeezed that we've seen how this position adjustment will see the potential for a pullback at a minimum. We look for a third test of the sending trend line and maybe the potential resumption of the of the downtrend in the dollar. Are there, are there any questions, you can either type in the chat box so you can raise your hand and I can unmute your mic. If there aren't any questions. Charlie the lawsuits with tether haven't, again, I haven't really, I haven't read much about that. My view basically on on these cryptos is that you want if you're going if you're looking to get a position going in them, then Bitcoin is the primary instrument because there is a derivatives market traded in Chicago. And that means the institutional players are involved. There's equally a theory and I believe they're also launching a derivatives market for that next week in Chicago. So we should see a lot more stability in those two than any of the others. But I haven't, I haven't read anything about that, that lawsuit Charlie. Ultimately, I mean any any regulation is generally a negative, but to the degree to which that's implemented. Any other questions, equally if you don't have a question and ending the chat box is helpful so that I know I can, I can wrap things up here. Okay, good stuff. Thanks very much for your time everyone to be sure to also to join us next Wednesday at 3pm for a live debate looking at the impact of the global pandemic second wave and where markets are likely to be heading as we head into into the summer. That's going to be 3pm UK time. And you can, you can sign up via the, via the blog, the ticker blog to join us for that. Otherwise, it will be same time next week. Thanks very much guys have this helps.