 Good afternoon everyone and welcome to CMC Markets monthly live non-firm payroll analysis webinar featuring myself Collin Sidinsky and Michael Hewson. We're here today to discuss non-firm payrolls but there's also a lot of other things to talk about. It's been a really busy day for news in the markets. We have the UK election results. We've also had trade data from China so there's really a lot going on. Let's jump right in. I'm going to start off with our disclaimers. We'll read our wish board in here. We'll start this video as for general information only and is not intended to provide trading or investment advice or any personal recommendations. The information in this video is indicative and may become out of date at any given time. CMC Markets shall not be responsible for any loss that you incur either directly or indirectly arising from any investment based on any information. Its video path performance does not guarantee future returns. 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So perhaps, Michael, why don't we begin here with the UK 100 and the big moves we've had overnight. This is a pretty substantial pop that we've had in the market on the election results. And I'm actually going to take my one minute chart here and bring it out a little farther to show you what I saw at late yesterday afternoon. Let's just bring it a little farther here with this big jump up at ... Yeah, I mean, I think it's important to put to the context of this move into what the expectations were 24 hours ago when I think a lot of people were thinking that Ed Miliband would probably end up at least having a decent chance of becoming Prime Minister. The exit polls proved very quickly that that was so far from the truth to really not be that funny. But we saw a massive spike in the pound, the footsie future as we can see also spiked higher. And this morning we've really, really kicked on. We've kicked on across a whole host of sectors, transport, banking, energy and housing. And I think it just underscores how nervous markets were about certain elements of the Labour Party manifesto because essentially we've got every single footsie 100 stock up today, bar one, and that's Pearson's owner of the FT. Well, I think it's slightly left leaning anyway, so that's probably the market's revenge on the FT. Footsie 250 has made a record high. So what we're getting now is a bit of a relief rally on the back of what I would suggest is nine months, six to nine months of an awful lot of uncertainty and deadlocks polls. Yes, absolutely. And you can see here where I circled when the market closed yesterday, when the polls closed yesterday at 10 o'clock p.m. in London was 5 p.m. eastern time. And you can see pretty quickly right afterwards, this is a five-minute chart. Look at these two big gaps here. And then we just steadily trended higher right through the night. In the last couple of hours now we've seen that level off a little bit. We're back above 7,000 for the footsie. This is about a 69.82. Let's call it 70.40 trading range here for the footsie. So leveling off and it's starting to digest gains. Let's do cable while we're on this topic, Michael. I'll just pop it up there. And it's showing us here also, again, we look at the daily chart. That cable had been working its way higher coming up. It was almost a double bottom back here. It was hanging around 152.15 when the polls closed. And once again, you can see this big gap here. It really shot up when we were watching this right when the polls closed pretty quickly. These extra polls came in. And it's really intriguing because conservatives tend to pull low pretty much everywhere around the world. This isn't uncommon. It happens here in Canada. It happens with the Republicans in the States and clearly with the conservatives in the UK and elsewhere. But this was quite a surprise, really, when you think about it. Yeah, but I think there's a number of factors at play. And I think what really tipped people towards the conservatives was that interview on Sky News. It was the audience debate. You wouldn't have seen it, Colin, but over here each party leader was quizzed by individual members of a selected audience. Selected audience in Leeds a couple of weeks ago. And they all got a bit of a kicking, all three of them. But Milliband, Ed Milliband in particular, basically got lambasted for the fact that he could not admit and would not admit that the Labour Party spent too much in the previous government. And I think that sort of thing resonates with people. I think it basically tells people that they can't be trusted on the economy because if they can't admit their past mistakes, who's to say they won't make new ones? So what we're seeing at the moment is a bit of a top in cable, around about 155, 155.20. Potentially a double top. It's only potentially a double top if we break below 151, which was basically the reaction lows that we saw at the beginning of this week. But at the moment, we've broken above the 50-day moving average. We're above the 100-day moving average. First time this happened since May last year. And the next key resistance is the 200-day moving average was around about 155-70, which is roughly around about the same sorts of levels that we saw I think earlier this year. We've got three peaks. I think you've just drawn a line straight across the top there, Colin. Around about between 155 and 155.30, pretty much where we are now. So that's a really, really key level there. And I think it's also important to mention that there's a dollar story in this as well. Non-farm payrolls out later this afternoon. And it's all about expectations because this rally in the pound, I think, has also been a little bit of a rally in the euro as well. We've seen euro-dollar punch higher. And potentially we could well go higher in that towards 115. At the moment, the euro-dollar is suffering a little bit on the back of the stronger pound against the euro, and that's getting pushed down. But overall, that week ADP number this week was the six successive monthly decline in annual jobs gained since November. Since November, the number of jobs added has been lower than the previous month. So there's a definite trend taking place there. And the big question I think for me really is whether or not that manifests itself into a similar sort of trend for non-farm payrolls. Everyone's looking at the unemployment rate, but every other indicator that I've been looking at seems to suggest there's a little bit of weakness in the US economy. So I think we've got to look at what the expectations are. That March payrolls number of 126 was a real shock. So we'll be looking for a revision in that number, an upward revision. More importantly than that, the 224,000 number that we're expecting for this month could actually come in lower or could we get a strong bounce back because of the week March number. So these are all the factors that we've got to weigh up. We're expecting 220, 224. I'm calling it around about 181. And strangely enough, Colin is actually calling it very, very similar to me, which frightens me a little bit. Gary, you and I are pretty much exactly, because I called for 180 and a 10K upward revision to the previous month. So you and I, I think since we started doing this the first time, this is the closest you and I have come in our estimates. I mean, we've been off by a difference of, say, five or 10, but this is the first time we've been pretty much dead on, which makes me wonder what's going to happen. Yeah, indeed. But I think what we've got to decide is what a number means for the US dollar. Yeah. What a strong number means for the US dollar, or what a weak number means for the US dollar. Certainly I think the data that we've seen thus far this week, the trade balance, again, points to significantly weak Q1, but more importantly than that, that weak ADB P number for April, as well as other data that we've seen for April in the ISM manufacturing, also points to a weak beginning of Q2. So I think you can pretty much rule out a June rate hike and I think the odds are diminishing potentially on a September one as well, but I think a lot would depend on obviously the number that comes out in about five minutes' time. Yes, and something I wanted to mention on that, Michael, is keeping an eye on the stock market and the dollar because for the first time in a while we've seen this week that they've actually been going in the same direction. It used to be that if you had a weak jobs number, the US dollar would go down and the stock market would take off and say, oh, well, the Fed's going to put off tightening, but now what we saw, especially with the ADP number, was that what ended up happening with the US dollar, of course, went down on the Fed being pushed off and the US stocks went down because people started saying, oh, well, does that mean the economy's slowing? What does that mean for corporate earnings? So it's changed a little bit there in terms of how the market's been reacting. We've gone up into this point into a position where the markets are basically going sideways. And what we've seen in recent months is that both bulls and bears have been able to take a reading out of any number we got. So for example, if we came in with another weak number, you could say that the people that are bearish on the dollar would say, okay, well, the Fed's not going to raise rates any time soon, so the dollar's going to go down. But in the stock market, do they take that as well? Is that good for liquidity or is that bad for corporate earnings? And so we're seeing the markets kind of growing sideways. So it is possible you could see some choppiness and some trading in both directions off this news, because nobody's really been able to take control of the markets for very long. We are in a sideways trend, and that makes it more of a trader's market these days. And I'll just bring up the dell very quickly on here to show that. Yeah, we're in a sideways range, which makes it a flat bang in the middle of it. So at the moment, with respect to the S&P, we could go either way, which leads me to stay a little bit clear of it, because simply speaking, it could go towards the top end of its range above 21.10, or it could go to the bottom end of its range near 20.65, 20.60. So, but I think European markets are slightly different in that there does appear to be some evidence that we may have seen a top in the DAX. We posted a bearish engulfing week a couple of weeks, a few weeks ago, on the DAX. And we also posted a bearish engulfing month on the DAX as well. And I did a video on that earlier this week. We also did exactly the same thing on the German Bund, a bearish engulfing month and a bearish engulfing week. And it also coincided with a bullish engulfing month on Eurodollar. So for me, there's a significant amount of correlation between DAX, Bund and Euro. And all of those indicators are telling me that we could potentially see a higher Euro over the course of the next few weeks and months and a lower DAX and a lower Bund. And I certainly think some of this week's price action has been symptomatic of those particular trades being somewhat one-way, and we've seen a significant unwinding of that trade. So, I mean, you may have a different take on that. And certainly seeing UK markets are now starting to come off their highest levels of the day. They're slipping back. So I think there's a little bit of profit-taking coming off ahead of these payrolls numbers. But certainly a good number, anything over and above 240, 250 is going to be dollar-positive, which could see the Euro and the pound pushed lower. Anything I think below 200 is going to be a disappointment and it's going to be dollar-negative. And I think that's something that we need to bear in mind when looking at the particular markets. For me, the key levels, I think, on Euro-dollar is obviously roughly just below where we are now, around about 112. That could well access the key support area on the downside. If you look at the chart forums on Spreadbet, I usually do a daily analysis on the key major currencies identifying where the key support areas are. So if you want to catch up with that, always have a quick look on the chart forums. But certainly I think there's a nice little channel line support on Euro-dollar coming in pretty much just below where we are right now, around about just below the 112 area. Okay, here we go. We have about 15 seconds to the numbers coming out here. So I've brought back up the dollar index trend. There we go. There's the US dollar starting to drop. 111.70 is what I'm looking at. There's a bit of a support area. We're getting a little bit of a dollar weakness and the numbers. Okay. 223. 85 revision. And that downward revision to March to 85,000. So that's a really significant revision. So that's a significant downward revision and then the big rebound in April. 5.4%. 5.4% as expected for that. So we've got US dollar dropping. It looks to me as though people are responding first to the downward revision. Yeah. The dollar's gone slightly big. Because if you took that out, that's a 40p downward revision. So if you're not 40k off this, then you'd be a 180. So that's, yeah. So it seems a little bit soft on the soft side to me on balance. I'm going to bring up the S&P chart here and let's see what stocks are doing. So we are getting a spike on the S&P. But again, it's all extended. It's gone back to 2100 and been contained by the middle of this trading channel here. So if we look at the S&P, we've got a 2050, 2040 to 2120. And more recently it's been about 2075 to again do about 2120. There's 2100 level here for the S&P's been fairly significant and it's just barely gotten above it and kind of stalling out again. So let's take a quick look here at what the Dow is doing. And then I'll bring up the Euro dollar. So we've got the Dow spiking the Dow back up above 18,000, running into resistance about 18,090, slipping back into this 1852 to 70 area. And now I'll bring up Euro dollar. Let's bring up Euro dollar here. So again, US dollar weakness spiking the Euro, it's cleared 112.50 and is moving up into this 112.60 to 112.90 kind of range. And let's bring up gold as well. Gold also jumping on the US dollar has been steady above about 1184 to 1188. It's broken out over that back above 1190. Settling out above 1192. Still short of 1200 on gold though. So gold is still struggling here in this, in the bottom half of this 1180 to 1220 kind of trading range here. And I'm just taking a look here at the Canada jobs. Canada jobs was a loss of 19,000. And again, we've got this mix here. We've got a 46,000 increase in full time, 66,000 decrease in part time. So a bit of a recovery in Canada jobs. And we'll just bring up dollar CAD and see what's going on with that one. We have dollar CAD is plunging, which is the US dollar weakening. So it's taken out this 120.90 back in and around 120.50 or 120.60. And if I look at the bigger chart here for dollar CAD, it's got this big support zone in and around 119.50 to 120. You've got a round number. You've got a double bottom. You've got a Fibonacci level, 30% retracement. So that's where you could see some support. But RSI is also showing the downtransport dollar CAD does remain intact here. So overall, it looks like the initial reaction has been a dollar negative. Figuring that this will put off the US, the Fed from raising rates in June to I say September at least. And I think Michael, you'd agree on that probably even later. And because you're still calling for next year. So certainly nothing but the Fed before September knocking the dollar down. We are seeing the US stocks bounce back, but they still seem to be contained within their current trading ranges. We've also seen a downward revision to the January number from 239 to 201. So basically you've got a 38,000 downward revision to January. You've seen a 41 downward revision to March and 223,000 is pretty much what we've got of a downward revision. Sorry, a slight downward miss on expectations for this month as well. I mean, it's pretty much coming as expected. The unemployment's dipped, but the participation rate has actually gone up ever so slightly to 62.8. So year on year wages have gone up to 2.2. We were expecting a rise to 2.3. So again, that's a little bit soft. So all in all, it's been a little bit of what I would call a little bit of a disappointing jobs report. Looking at the headline, the headline numbers look particularly good, and have been disappointing on the downward slant in the same way that ADP saw some significant downward revisions to previous months. So I think with respect to that, it paints a rather disappointing picture of the US economy in Q1, and I think it probably means that we're going to get downward revisions to Q1 GDP. But more importantly than that, we're not really seeing a significant bounce back in Q2. And I think that's more than anything, I think that's more than anything a little bit worrying, certainly in the context of dollar bulls, because everyone has been thinking about, well, it's not a matter of when, and now it's really a question of, well, actually, are we going to see one this year? And the odds of that seem to be getting pushed out, although I know you probably would disagree with that coin. Well, I do. I still think they're probably going to try and do one later in the year, kind of like what they did with tapering where they got one in right at the end of the year to kind of say they did it this year. But certainly, it looks to me like the case for June is pretty much dead here. And I still think they may try and have a go at it later in the year, but we've been looking now in the last three meetings of the year between September and December, certainly not as early as it has been looking previously. I've been watching the, I've been watching the, I think September's looking a little, I think September's looking a little bit. September's looking a little bit. Yeah, it is. To be honest, I mean, we may end up in a situation where they tweak one in in December, and you and I have talked about this before where, you know, they do it on December the 15th, and I know you had said at the beginning of the year they won't raise rates at the beginning of the year. If they do it on December the 15th, that's still pretty good, pretty great call. It's going to be off by two weeks. Well, yeah. But they might raise rates from January the 1st. So I think it might be right. Yeah. So I'm just watching the markets here, and as we've been talking about how we're in a, we're in kind of a sideways trend for the market where nobody's really been able to take control very long. And we've been watching how the, what the dollar and the, and the Dow have been doing. So we have this spike up of about 100 points in the Dow on the news. It's now starting to retrench and slip back a little bit. And if we look here at the dollar, it's actually had, had, had dropped on the news. It's now gone back above 95 and is actually trading slightly above where it was where it was before the, before the numbers came in. And this is typical following a non-farm payrolls announcement where you'll see the market take a big swing in one direction, have a big counter move back in the other direction, and then kind of settle out somewhere. So this is not, it's not unusual. This is, this is typical trading. And, but it is indicative of how we are in a, in a sideways trend, particularly on stocks and, and both signs are, are trying to take a read out of, take something away from the, from the results here. The, just showing there's a little longer term dollar index chart here. We have been in a bit of a downtrend. And, and essentially to me, it looks like it's trying to kind of level off here in this 94 to 96 area. So we've seen this move on back up to 95. It's really just a bounce back up into the middle for the, for the dollar index. Yeah, I think, I think it's important to think, you know, is this a dollar positive story? I don't think it is. It's not totally dollar negative. I think, I don't think it's totally dollar negative because we've seen a significant rebound in the euro. We've seen a significant rebound in the pound. And dollar yen continues to look a little bit soft. Stock markets do look a little bit better bid. Treasuries look a little bit better bid as the yields start to fall. But I don't think this is a payrolls number that is really going to get the dollar selling off very, very quickly. At the same time, it's not going to send it skyrocketing higher. So I think what we're going to get today is more testing of the extremes of the range. So with euro dollar, looking around 111.60, 111.70 to find a few bids down there, perhaps, and maybe retest the highs, obviously that's going to be driven by what happens over the course of the next few days with respect to Greece, which given all the news flow that we've seen today, has taken a little bit of a backseat just for a change. And it's a pleasant change, I have to say. But next week on Monday, we're going to be much more focused on Greece again simply because of the euro group meeting that comes about on Tuesday. So, you know, while we look at this number that we're currently talking about at the moment, it is important by Monday that everyone will have forgotten it and they'll be moving on to something completely different. One thing I saw in Twitter earlier this week was somebody saying if I had a dollar for every Greece's June story that I've read, I'd have enough money to be able to agree. Well, that's very true, and I'm sure they'd welcome the extra cash. Indeed. Let's take a look at that. I didn't hear Michael while we... Oh, sorry, did you want to say something? No, I just want to have a quick look at the oil price to see what that's doing. I'm sure why don't we bring up... You want Brent or Crue or Texas? Well, it doesn't matter. I mean, WTI is fine. Okay. Oh, okay. I brought up Brent, so... Brent's going to work. No, I mean, we've seen a very significant move higher in Brent crude prices, and I think it's sort of... it's pretty much matched in the move higher in WTI. But I think, you know, and the fact that we've taken out the previous highs of this year I think is important, but I think a lot of the move that we've seen higher in the oil price has largely been as a result of the weaker dollar. We've got an OPEC meeting coming up in June. I think the key level for me, I think, on Brent is $70, $75 a barrel. Why do I say that? Because that was the level at which Brent prices collapsed from in November after OPEC decided not to cut production. So that, I think, is going to be a natural barrier. So I think there is a perception that we could well be near a near-term top in crude oil prices. In WTI, that's probably going to be around about $65 a barrel, and I would suggest it's around sort of $70, $75 a barrel in Brent because I think there's a number of shale operations ready to come back online in the event shale prices or oil prices go back above $65 a barrel. You may have a different view on that, Colin, because you're nearer to it and the oil fields of North Dakota, which are basically on the Canadian border. Yeah, there's a lot of cutting that's ready to come back. Yeah, there's several million barrels a day that's just ready to come back online at a moment's notice. So I think that will contain any kind of a meaningful rebound. And on top of that, it's important to remember that when we did see the U.S. start to cut back production, the Saudis just softed it all up. They ramped up production and basically the increase in Saudi production was more than the decrease in U.S. production. So we're still in this market share war where whoever does blink and decides to cut first is more likely to find that rather than bringing down total supply, they're more likely to find that somebody else is just going to go in and take that away from them, which also is making things difficult. But on top of what I've drawn in here, this channel between $70 and $75, and Michael mentioned it, what's also interesting, sitting dead center of that at $72.50 is the 38% retracement of the decline from June to January. So that's a key financial retracement level as well. So that does look like a zone where you could, A, in the short term, see it drawn to, but then B could contain the advance. I'm just going to close the, bring down the branch for a minute and open up the, bring up WTI. We can take a look at that one as well. So for WTI, has not come up as much as Brent. WTI is hanging around the 23% retracement level, which is the $57.90, and it's been struggling with $60 in a meaningful way. And interestingly, we had to pop up above a $60 for one day. It was a bit of a shooting start. This kind of ugly candlestick pattern there. That's a nice little ship. That's the Great Stone Dogey. Yes, it is. So that could actually be a potential reversal pattern. So when we were talking about potential top-in-oil prices, maybe we've already seen it. Yeah, it's a possibility. That Great Stone Dogey interests me. And then you've broken this trend line here, and now it's starting to contain it as new resistance. That's just today. So we'll see how that plays out, but if I just extend this line up here. You'll see there, we had the, it was, it was starting to kind of break and retest this support line here off the bottom, which is kind of increasing. That's a nice line. That's a nice line, that. Yeah. If we do see accrued start to get contained here below this line, it would be confirmation of the Great Stone Dogey. And the three-handle pattern here, what would we call this one, Michael? You had big update, Great Stone Dogey, and then a big down day. That's not very pretty. That's a star. I think it's either a shooting star or an evening star. Yeah. You know, if you take the three candles combined, and it is quite powerful, but it does require confirmation. It requires confirmation, basically needs to go below the lows of the previous day, which in this case, I think. About 5775, which interestingly, again, is your Fibonacci test, too. It's amazing how these things all come together. And when we use Western and Eastern techniques, and we try to bring multiple types of analysis to bear, it's amazing what happens when they all come together. So if you see Texas breaks 5775, this is going to look awfully ugly technically. Yeah, so it's definitely worth keeping an eye on that. So maybe let's take a quick peek, Michael, at Dollar Yen, and then we can open it up to a couple of questions and wrap up. Sure. Okay. Sounds good to me. Dollar Yen it is. Dollar Yen. And we're seeing some chopping. It's got knocked down to 1,1960, kind of hanging around 120 again. I just brought up the bigger chart here to show we're in this sideways channel for Yen of about 1,181,1850 at the low end, about 1,2175, 1,22 at the high end, 120 big round numbers sitting in the middle, and that's pretty much where we're at. I think we're in a range in Dollar Yen. The top end of it is around about 1,2050. The bottom end of it is roughly around about 1,18 and a half. And I think it's quite interesting in the context of the range that we've got in the S&P and the Dow. I think you've got a little bit of a mirror going on there with respect to what Dollar Yen is doing and what U.S. stock markets are doing. Yeah, so let's just take a quick peek here and bring up the charts for Dollar Index before we wrap up. If anyone has any questions, by the way, please put them up on the chat and we'll take a look. So we saw here a Dollar Index got knocked down to about 9440. The snapback up to a stalled out short of 9520 and now it's kind of leveling off around 95 pretty much where it was before the news. And if I bring up SPX here, just taking a second, there we go. So U.S. stocks, so we did have the initial rally pop here on SPX from 2090 up to about 2110. It's backed off only really a couple of points. It's still holding naturally above 2100. Big resistance for the S&P is still up about 2120. So it looks as though, Michael, the stocks are actually taking this news as a moderately positive, although they're still contained within their ranges and the dollar is looking like it's kind of taking this as neutral right now. Pretty much the same. It's tried both ends of the range. Euro dollars now back above 112. It did pop below there around to about 111.780, which again is where we found a little bit of support. So I think we're probably going to fizzle out the rest of this trading week on the back of those payrolls numbers and I think inevitably we're going to shift back onto the next announcements and the next key market driver, which is likely to be next week. Yes, it's looking that way. So I'll just turn this up here. I'm going to bring cable back up and... I'm going to duck out now, Colin, because I've got a few things to sort out. Okay, no problem. Thanks, guys. And if you have any questions, please feel free to ask Colin or either contact either him or myself on Twitter. Excellent. Thank you very much, Michael. And do we have any questions? Cheers. Do we have any questions for anybody today? Before I wrap up here? No questions? Okay. Well, thank you all very much for joining us today. It's been a big week. We do expect to see continued action in the UK markets in the wake of yesterday, last night, and today's election results. And as Michael said, there's certainly more going on in Europe next week. So we could also continue to see some positioning relative to that. We may see some trading back and forth this afternoon. On the oil price, we do have the rig count for the U.S. coming out at 1 o'clock p.m. eastern time, which is 6 o'clock p.m. British summer time. And that's the main one. Okay, I do have some questions here. Gold is in an inverse-heavy shoulder. Yes, it is. And Kiwi dollar is in the double bottom on the weekly. And so is the Euro dollar. Why isn't the D dollar index falling? So I'll just quickly here. I'll show. We did talk about gold. I'll show the inverse-head and shoulders here, which I actually do have marked out on my chart here. So we've had a left shoulder here around 1180. The head down around 1140. And we've carved out a bit of a shoulder here around 1180. The neckline is at 1220. And gold is kind of struggling here to get much higher. And really considering how much the U.S. dollar has weakened, we aren't seeing that gold is really struggling to make much headway despite that. If I bring up Kiwi dollar here, which I'll be happy to talk to you. I'll also show Aussie dollar, because I haven't shown that one yet. We did have a nice double bottom on Kiwi dollar. We've seen a rally up. We actually got a smaller double top here, and it's been backing away from it. We're sliding back towards 74 cents. So 74 is the retest here. We've seen Kiwi dollar actually break this momentum line here. So we had to improve our upward momentum on Kiwi dollar. It broke 50, and it broke this trend line. It's turning downward. The momentum has been turning downward. The test here now is at 74. If it holds 74, then we are seeing still a base building pattern. If it's still 74, we could get a retest of these lows back near about 70 cents again. The big question on Kiwi dollar really is RVNZ right now. Are they serious about possibly starting to cut interest rates? If they want to do it, they certainly have rooms to do so. They raised interest rates four times last year for a total of about 1%, when everybody else was going the other way. So they do have room, and I think that's what's containing Kiwi dollar right now. On the flip side of that was the rebound we've been getting in Aussie dollar, which I'll just show here briefly. Over the last couple of days, similarly we had a double bottom here, almost a triple bottom in Aussie dollar. It's however been able to maintain its momentum and has kept working its way higher. The 78, 78, 30 has become a higher support zone, and it's basically been holding up. Currently rallies for Aussie dollar contained in this 8060 to 81 area. We did see things flip back a bit. I do think if you started to see a creep back up, higher say up to this 8080, the RBA might start to get concerned again in a big way because they cut interest rates. Usually enough they actually cut interest rates, and the Aussie dollar went up, because a lot of people think they're done now. Having gone down towards 2%, people are starting to think that perhaps they'll go neutral and that the RBA and Z might be the more likely one to start to cut rates. Interesting, we'll show this on Aussie Kiwi here, which was getting in prey, which got right down almost to parity for the New Zealand dollar. Maybe what had spooked the RBA and Z into starting to think, talk about cutting interest rates. In the last little while though, we've seen this change substantially that we had a real rally in Aussie dollar relative to New Zealand dollars, some of which is New Zealand dollar relative weakness here at the moment. The other one we had, the Euro dollar. Why isn't the US dollar falling? Going back to this, I think what we're seeing is overall here that the US dollar has probably, has already come down in the last couple of weeks from 100 down to 94. My feeling is that you've probably already seen the weaker jobs report getting priced into US dollar, which is probably why we're not seeing it come down more. The headline number was, even though there's been downward revisions, the headline number itself was strong enough to bring in some support here in the near term and basically to keep it range bound for the US dollar. Although as I know, if you factor out the downward revision in the previous month, then 40K of that, 223K, was the offset of the downward revisions. So you had a good rebound here for the nonfront tables for this month and that's been enough to provide some support here. And as I know, the gold in particular with the reverse head and shoulders is a problem here. We should be seeing between the Euro stimulants and the weakening Euro US dollar, gold should be blasting through that 12-20 and it's just not at this point in time. So it's one we've got to keep an eye on. It's gone range around like a lot of other markets. Do we have any final questions? Okay, I'm going to conclude here then. As Michael noted, feel free everyone to contact us on Twitter if you have any more questions after the call. We'd like to thank you all very much for joining us. Michael and I will be back a little later this month with our monthly analyst debates conference call and then back again next month for US nonfront payrolls. Have a great day of trading, everyone.