 a very good morning to you. It is Tuesday the 18th of May, so I hope you're doing well. Don't forget if you're watching this on YouTube to like and subscribe to the channel and you can also check out amplifylive.com where we do have absolutely free access to our Trader Hub portal, so do check that out. But otherwise, let's get straight into it and talk about what's going on this morning and a little bit of recovery from generally our lower clothes that we had on Wall Street last night. The Dow closed down about two tents, similar clothes to the S&P, the Nasdaq's slightly laggard down about 0.6%. Overall though, things generally a little bit more positive in Asia overnight and index futures trade higher this morning going into the European swing. And let's just talk over a couple of charts first before we then start to incorporate some of the news and as well as looking at the day ahead. And gonna start with precious metals in fact and let's have a look at spot gold or gold futures in fact that I'm looking at here. And gold has risen to its highest level in more than three months. Concerns over the pace of the global recovery, creeping back a touch, following a flower up in coronavirus cases in parts of Asia specifically. So you've got kind of COVID concerns at play. Secondly, expectations of further increases in consumer prices could start to bolster demand as an inflation hedge as point number two. And then point number three, you've got a weakening dollar and we continue to see that present last week with non-commercial traders adding to their net short dollar positioning, the dollar index as well, continuing to decline yesterday and this morning it is seen down in the big C once again trading down 110 to 1% around 90 at the 90 how to which is quite key as well to keep an eye on. So yesterday in gold we saw a nice breakout. This was actually Sunday night's trade. Two kind of classic opportunities to get along this market. One coming in the overnight Asia pack session as I said Sunday going into Monday but then we had another move down to it at that same range high kind of zone that had been in play over the course of the last week and a half or so. Then we saw a really nice push up during North American trading hours and then Asia's just kept us up at this level. And this was our target. Remember we were talking about this yesterday. 1875 and we got there or within literally half a dollar of so and on the daily chart, this is unaltered from what we were looking at yesterday which was that significant breakout of the levels around 45 which was as well around the high that was capping price action in early Feb. And if we were to get ahead of steam and break technically through that point then we didn't really anticipate a lot of technical resistance until we got up to 75 and here we are. So nicely played out there in the gold market. Similarly precious metals just generally following suit. We were kind of stalking silver prices yesterday. They were very close proximity kind of tapping on what was that level at 28 yesterday. And then when gold started to just progressively push on we saw a nice opportunity to get along as well on silver broke through and the previous high that we had on the 10th of May and the obvious target to take some about a half a dollar higher up and around those previous highs that we're seeing on the 23rd of Feb and we sit just above those levels here. Now at the moment as we start to get slightly more up and around the overbought territory and the RSI again on the point of the 28 break it was looking quite comfortable and these indicators that we could have some further headroom and we just needed that sympathy play with gold having made those extensions for those other metals to follow suit. So yeah, nice move in the commodity space otherwise in the equity space fairly quiet overall. I mean, Monday's calendar was pretty quiet. Today's calendar is pretty quiet and it is in terms of US data, a fairly quiet week. But the NASDAQ 100 still keeping an eye on this rectangle here which was going back to the highs we had back on the second of May that double bottom on the fourth and sixth and then although a little bit rough and choppy around the end of last week it has held and we're right back up there testing at the moment after initial declines that we're seeing in the futures market really this time yesterday. That'd be quite key. Again, any break above that things could get more progressively bullish on a bit of a further reversal from the sell-off that we had last week unlike some of the other indices the NASDAQ still got a little bit of way to go before we start taking back some of the selling pressure that we're seeing at the start of last week on Monday's session in particular. As far as the S&P is concerned just have a quick look here. So S&P at the moment not a great deal of interest here for me right now. At the bottom end of this recent range fleshed out yesterday evening at around 4138. I think that's a good area now of support. You've got the daily S1 on the pivots. You've got yesterday's low and that respective high as well we had on before the breakout on the 14th of last week. So I like that area now for any support on the pullback of prices to just eke out this kind of range that we might train at the moment. On the upside as well you've got the R1 sitting just above the sixteenths high. This was coming into well really the recommencement of electronic trade when we reopened before we saw a bit of a decline on Monday night but that'll be probably the range we'll be looking at at the moment and then looking at more interest if equities continue that recovery on a break pullback and then extension of that recovery from the sell off from the beginning of last week or if we come back down to the lower bound to play off that support area would probably be what I'd be looking at for the time being. On the equity side of things I do want to quickly throw in Tesla's chart into the mix and I have marked this up I'm going to have to move a couple of things just so I can fit it in my screen that I'm sharing with you at the moment so there we go and we're looking at Tesla shares and obviously Tesla have come under some pretty extreme pressure really and it's been pretty persistent I mean if we go from where we were literally year to date highs we're only seen on the 25th of January it really wasn't that long ago but if we go back up to when we were trading with Tesla which was basically 900 to the lows we printed yesterday we're off around nearly 40% in Tesla shares now as you can see after Cathy Wood came out and she was selling some of her holdings in Tesla's at the moment you remember she was kind of freeing up some cash it seemed to get into Coinbase of which she's feeling a bit of pain at the moment but filings would show she continues to be quite an active buyer of dips in Coin but here in Tesla it's just gone from bad to worse almost and the reason why I'm talking about this is because there's another little string to that bow that's come out or been unveiled if you like from a short position that's being built up by a very infamous character in markets but here you've got Elon on SNL you've got China production issues that the car manufacturer has faced just given some of the ongoing tensions as well between on the state level in the US and China even though they've got the U-turn on Bitcoin payments and obviously cryptos had some high volatility particularly downside in Bitcoin over the last couple of days as well stabilized a little bit at the moment 542 obviously is a really big level of support in the downside as you can see marked up here in 2nd December and on the 5th of March any breakdown of that I would say we run down to 500 ASAP if that were to be taken out now the reason why I'm mentioning this is because we had a lot of filings from hedge funds last night and Michael Berry who you probably realized from the big short obviously very famous individual from shorting in the financial crisis subprime and he basically has come out and it has revealed that his fund has reported put options on 800,100 Tesla shares now that position size is worth roughly around 534 million dollars so it's gonna be interesting to see I'm sure Elon is gonna bite he almost always does so I'm expecting a tweet probably from him today to try and defend himself but yeah another kind of meaningful development here that I can kind of annotate on this Tesla chart and I'll be interested to see although timing specifically it's quite difficult to get a real nail down of when Berry was starting to build up this position but it definitely has been accumulating over the period of the first quarter so be interested to see how Tesla shares open when we get underway a bit later on I'll keep you updated in the community about his pre-market movement otherwise the other chart I wanted to quickly mention was WTI crude and despite some of the things that I mentioned that are lifting gold which is a slight apprehension on the COVID situation coming out of Asia overall the Western world touch word thankfully at this point is moving along on Q if you like in terms of the US and also in the UK at least in the latter for now obviously we continue to monitor vigilance the COVID variant situation but with WTI crude we've always remained quite bullish here I amplify about the idea that reopening further airline travel that's only going to pick up an increase whether or not it gets disrupted by this Indian variant now globally or not the point is in the future there will be a return of normalization if you like in terms of the physical demand for crude oil and so just having a look at oil here at the moment I'm going to flip it over to a daily chart and this is what I'm looking at so this is going back to give you a bit of idea on the access on the bottom sorry let me just change over here this is what I'm looking at WTI crude 2018 is here when we had the peak up at around 75 bucks you've then got 2019 here which was when April 2019 we hit a high around 66.76 close proximity to that as well beginning of 2020 before then the pandemic hit we've had a rejection at technically around these levels at the beginning of March and who here we are again and you know if you look on a 90 minute we are just literally tapping on that door looking for a break here so something I'm definitely watching today and this week and if we can get above that and it's been quite bullish in the return here that we've had over the last days price actions that take us back up to this level then again you know if we break higher here yes we've got a bit of an extension on that move on the eighth of the failed break but then there's not a great deal of resistance here technically then if you start looking back on these charts so the obvious target here has got to be you would think the $70 handle psychologically and that puts us back up at the highest levels that we would have traded since basically October of 2018 at that point so it's still looking quite quite bullish there at the at the moment a few other things then from the headlines that I just wanted to cover having just looked at the charts there and going to just talk about the Fed briefly we've got the FMC minutes obviously tomorrow to be quite frank I'm not really expecting a great deal from them and further reiteration from one of the senior Fed officials Carina last night said that during a webinar that we could have expected April payroll report shows we have not made substantial further progress on the central bank's goals for employment and inflation laid out as their thresholds to begin scaling back their bond purchase program so Carina, the Fed continue to just remain firm for the time being on that front we did have overnight just so you're aware the RBA minutes not really too much in a way of a reaction I would say if anything just prevailing dollar weakness helping some of these currency pairs remain fairly buoyant and actually I'll come back to it, Euro's just had a breakout here on the upside but the RBA said it will pay close attention to economic data and conditions in financial markets when deciding whether to roll over its yield target maturity and or to undertake further quantitative easing the RBA is due to make a call at its July 6th meeting or whether it will move that three-year yield target to November 24th bond from the current April 2024 security but that's understood and we're just given the timings and the roll over I don't think would be that surprising but yeah I just mentioned the Euro so bit of a further extension of that dollar weakness which we're talking about yesterday still very prevalent at the moment and yeah Euro's just testing here a fairly interesting level which is as you can see a bit of a breakout from that prior week and that previous Friday's price activity which is around the 121.85 level just looking here on the on a daily yeah we start to come to the 122 hand or it starts to get a little bit more interesting from a resistance point of view whether or not we can continue this upward trend that we see really take hold since the end of March, April being really good for the for the Euro obviously by product of dollar softness but with the vaccination programs where Europe was lagging through that period of the beginning of the year January, February now we start to see things picking up a little bit more pace albeit I saw this morning J&J very slow to fulfill their Q2 deliveries to the Eurozone for their coronavirus drug at the moment but look look quite dollar centric at the moment because Cable's also continuing the upward trend and this is what we're talking about yesterday there's a lot of UK data coming out this week jobs, inflation all these types of metrics, growth, PMIs they all should lend their hand to a more positive backdrop despite UK ministers reportedly discussing contingency arrangements for local lockdowns or delaying the reopening on June 21st I think the government has been quite clear about the data over dates and any delaying of June 21st I don't think it's particularly that big a deal for Sterling as a headwind if it moves by a couple of weeks and also if they adopt a more localised rather national program but with restaurants, hospitality things like that opening in this latest lockdown I don't think it really detracts from that economic rebound so just be not unless obviously the Indian variant situation in cases get materially worse from here on out ITV's Pestin did report that the prospects of a final easing of lockdown restrictions in England going ahead precisely as planned on June 21st are close to nil according to ministers and officials so you can pretty much take it now that it's probably unlikely to happen in that current complete restrictions being dropped for having a look at cable here then again technically quite an important breach now of where we were from the high on the 11th and technically as we've said before we've got the 142 handle sat just above here about 12 pips away from current price but really resistance wise not a great deal until we get the year to date high seen on the 24th of Feb now at 142.45 we have had the jobs data in the UK this morning not really a focal point to be quite honest with you not with furlough still in play the ILO unemployment rate 4.8% versus expected 4.9% but the thing is about those jobs data is the government's strategy of adopting furlough until September is allowing then kind of companies to keep people employed through then allowing the economy to reopen through May, June, July, August by that point the economic activity should have really picked up a lot of pace and that means that perhaps then a lot of these employees might have survived the worst of the pandemic crisis potentiality of being laid off at that point there's enough demand there to warrant them keeping their position that the unemployment spike never actually materializes just given the roll over and length of that government job support scheme all right great look at the calendar then for today and we do have at 10 o'clock the Eurozone Q1 GDP flash estimate and you've got the employment figures as well so just keep an eye on if you're training European products and then this afternoon pretty quiet overall burning permits housing starts coming out the US at 130 and from a speaker's perspective ECB President Lagarde does speak later this afternoon at 3pm but she's speaking at a student award ceremony no text is expected there and given the theme of the conference not expecting any market moving commentary Bank of England Governor Bailey and a number of the BOE officials do speak in front of the Lords Economic Affairs Committee on everything from the future of QE the bank's transparency its mandate and so on perhaps interesting to keep half an year on but I don't think it's really going to be a material mover for sterling in terms of any new commentary on the economic situation or future monetary policy then from a Fed voters point of view you've got Bostick speaking at 330 about resilience of the economy and financial system probably one thing to keep an eye on as well pre-market is not only Tesla as I mentioned but also the kind of brick and mortar retailers you've got Walmart and Home Depot going to report pre-market two of the bigger kind of names in that space and obviously coming on the back of whether or not there's enough firepower left with those last stimulus checks that we saw going through January, March to see how these guys actually performed but amid also those current restrictions in America now so that is it going to let you guys get on so set up for still although calendar-wise fairly quiet still looks like a pretty interesting day could unfold so good luck and I'll see you down to my live chat room thanks very much