 Single game daily fantasy can be fun even for really bad games because you can embrace the suck and just kind of live in the mud there But this week we get the 49ers versus the cheese in Super Bowl 58 And that is about as fun as it gets Christian McCaffrey Patrick Mahomes and all the fun players on both sides We're gonna break down this game from a DFS perspective Let you know where we see value over on Fandall and our top plays for Super Bowl 58 single game DFS Welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast. That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research Joined here as I am every Thursday by Brandon gandula check them out on Twitter I could do a 13 find his work at Fandall research where he is a senior managing editor Brandon Happy Super Bowl week to you. How you doing today? Good Super Bowl week. It's always a little bit bittersweet, but we got a good matchup You know could have had maybe some better narratives if the the Lions got there or you know, the Ravens got there But you know, we got the rematch You know narrative this week Mahomes going for Really putting the pressure on all the other quarterbacks going today of being kind of untouched a boy in his era So and you know, it's the Chris Conley revenge game So that's all that matters what else could you need is a selling point for this Other than Chris Conley revenge game. Do you think he'll be active cuz I'm leaning towards yes personally, but They want to win. Yeah. Yeah, I mean like he's a good run blocker. They could use that here try to You know mess them up on the ground. So we got to see Chris Conley out there He's already won one at least correct or is he won two Super Bowls? I don't know. You should know it's just a bit. It's just a bit. It's not a bit Don't know that's the kind of stuff that you would know But I wouldn't know you should know this about the one NFL player you care about like you should know this I put I just purge all the information that we're on to the next that's very fair and probably Good from an analyst perspective. So what we'll do today is try to help you binge all the information For Super Bowl 58 let you know where we're seeing value Outline some key trends usages to note and get you ready for Super Bowl 58 DFS on fan to a first-day reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Wherever you get your podcast because although the NFL podcast is done after it's this weekend We still got USC via Austin Swain We have got NBA via Tom Vecchio and of course the PGA podcast a combo betting and DFS show now every Tuesday Getting you ready for that week's PGA tour event So go to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast if you like put you here Leave us a five-star rating on Apple podcasts and Spotify and also check out the PGA show and the daily ISO Over on Fandall TV plus last year at the Super Bowl Rob Grankowski went wide left on Fandall's kick of destiny But now he's back for kick of destiny to and this time you can play along All you have to do is choose if Gronk will make or miss get your free pick in right now because if you're right You want to share of ten million dollars in bonus bets ten millions a lot of money Everyone can get in on the action when Gronk takes his shot at redemption before Super Bowl 58 Whether your team make or team miss just head to the Fandall sportsbook app and get your pick in it is absolutely free Then tune in before the game to see Gronk's kick live You want to share of ten million dollars and bonus bets if you're right Brandon. Are you team make or team miss for Gronk? Make Your conviction that makes me question if you're actually team make are you lying to make him feel better because we are Gronk and I are hat brothers. He's been on the up-and-atom show wearing this hat So I feel like I had to go team make you know to honor my hat brother Rob Gronkowski with whom I have many similarities Well, like he's got I don't want to go against John Cena who's saying he's gonna miss But You know in the end like John says never give up No one else has ever said that before I mean, he's got a lot of merch with it. It's probably made more money off of it than anyone else before So I think I'm gonna go. Sorry John. I know he's a big fan Of the show, but I'm gonna go with Gronk making it getting that redemption And then who knows maybe rubber match next year who could say so we're both team make Okay, what could possibly go wrong there make every moment more a fandal and official sports betting partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and President select states fandal is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Dark casino LLC No purchase necessary 10 a million dollar prize pool to be split equally among all eligible participants who made the correct pick Prize issued is non withdrawable bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat restrictions apply C terms That's sportsbook or fandwill.com a sportsbook autopilot gym gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler over to fandwill.com slash RG in Colorado Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia, and Vermont call 1 800 next step Or text next step to 53314 when Arizona 188-789-7777 Over to ccpg.org a slash chat in Connecticut 1 809 with an Indiana 1 805 2 2 4700 is a chaos gambling help.com in Kansas 1 877 770 stop in Louisiana visit MD gambling health Oregon, Maryland 1 800 gambler net in West Virginia 1 805 2 2 4700 in Wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or clay 103 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1 877 hoping why or text open why in New York? Let's dig in now to 49ers versus chiefs right now fandwill sportsbook The Niners are favored by two and a half minus 105 on that side minus what 15 the chiefs plus two and a half Total in this game is held steady at forty seven and a half ever since open There is no weather to note here because we are indoors. God bless a dope injuries here to note Jerry McKinnon got an unlimited practice on Wednesday as he returns from a groin injury But Andy Reed said the McKinnon isn't doing much So it sounds like McKinnon unlikely to return this week, which is massive Fred Zampacheco guard and Joe Toonie mispractice where they peck injury also seems unlikely to go he could but it seems unlikely Toonie also missed the conference championship game and then George Kittle was limited with a toe injury He said he'll be good to go But it is at least it's at least no worthy that he is not at a hundred percent right now my MVP pick For betting not for daily fantasy George Kittle 70 to 1 Uh-oh, that is not feeling as good any more Brandon before we dive into the DFS of it all How do you see this game going down because that does influence a lot how we view things for DFS as well? Yeah, so my baseline Depending on Which sort of samples I use it the one constant is points leading toward the over That's not what we're here to talk about is like whether we would take the over or not, but I would you know Okay, sorry That's not what I'm here to do. That's the way that I would lean but Even on sort of the low end I'm in like the 47 and a half range and then every other sort of sample I use puts me above that so Leading toward there being points and that naturally changes things It makes a single-game DFS a little more quarterback friendly because you need some touchdowns. You need yardage Efficiency that's typically you know tied to overall points. I will say that You know my my pure model Likes the 49ers against the spread a little bit. I have a hard time. I like the 49ers a lot I know how good they can be but I've been on the on the record with this chiefs team saying that Kind of kicking myself for not getting in and in earlier. I should have but you know, they had a tough tough road ahead in the playoffs, but What I see is points. I don't have a firm take on Which side I prefer again my model says the 49ers my my heart and my All my film watching Acumen says the chiefs. So there there we go. Yeah, I also think there'll be a lot of points here My model has a total at forty nine point nine seven as the average not the median which is important to note But forty nine point nine seven for my total here I also have the Niners as more heavily favored than the spread and indicate more than the field goal here so we're on the same page there and I Think that I feel okay about my number saying that in large part because They just kind of had a lot of like weird fluke In the first two rounds and I think it's allowed us to forget how good this offense is and they still show that during those games They started slow, but baby. Did they finish hot against the Lions? I know that they benefited from that fluke catch for IUK But like there were a lot of good plays beyond that too And I think they'll be able to have answers what the chiefs try to do against them defensively. So For me, it's a situation where both my model and my like my eyes agree that Lean towards the Niners We feel like the market's decently efficient there and then a heavier lean towards the over which does mean I expect there to be a Pretty good number of points in this game Let's take a look now at the salaries over at fangirls sportsbook for this game Christian McCaffrey It's seventeen thousand five hundred dollars in a big jump off down to Patrick Mahomes at fifteen thousand dollars Brandon Let's begin things here by talking about McCaffrey because he is really the headliner here for this game 17-5 is a lot, but also 17-5 for a reason. So For me, I feel like it kind of has to be like your baseline assumption MVP for this game on fangirl, of course, if you're new to playing DFS on fangirl single-game DFS You can put a player to your MVP slot They'll earn 1.5 x points and they do not have a different salary to be at MVP versus other spots So effectively you're picking of the five players in your single-game lineup Who will be the highest scoring player? So I Think that McCaffrey is kind of that guy and we'll talk about some perfect line of trends and kind of what you've noticed Based on the data here in a second Let's start things off with the cafe because I do believe he is the true headliner here Yeah, so anyone who's listening to the show for like the whole year Knows that we have a pretty organized structure when it gets into playoffs and single-game stuff We kind of get a little bit all over the place So like I got a ton of match-up notes that I'll probably forget to mention in McCaffrey's favor, too But if you look at the all the games with their that this team's big five if you include birdie Fool playing relevant snaps basically, you know, not leaving early He is averaging 136.2 scrimmage yards per game I know that might differ from the relevant sample that you have for him But that's that's an absurd number his adjusted opportunities per game in my sample Adjusted opportunities for us carries plus double your targets because targets are on average worth twice as many fandal points as a carry for running backs 28.9. That's about as good as it gets in today's NFL 81% route rate 66% of the team's red zone carries Whenever someone has such a good red zone role, it is really hard to even envision what Like a ceiling is because with conversion on Like, you know, three or five red zone attempts or something like that because you know red zones within the 20 But he's also getting goal line work You know, you have to ask yourself a lot of questions whenever you're building a single-game lineup is McCaffrey gonna go nuts Well, if he doesn't how good is he still? The reality is that yeah, like you said, he's the default assumption at MVP and then you pivot from there My simulations have him around 37% likely to lead in fandal points. It's not, you know 50% like sometimes when we get yeah a Lamar Jackson or something like that, but it is pretty relevant for sure Yeah, the sample I looked at here is when they had the big four healthy So I didn't include Purdy, but I think he's played he started every game at least for them outside of week 18 But in that sample McCaffrey's been the highest scoring guy in five out of ten games Diva saying they'll twice Brock Purdy twice Brandon. I use once So he is like about half the time if you expect The Niners that the highest scoring guy and I think that would be my baseline assumption not because I think the Niners will win but because They just tend to have more Fantasy output than the cheese just like in general and the cheese are also more spread out at MVP So honestly 37% from a calf racing is about right at MVP I think that's very fair as far as a number to have in mind from an MVP But I think it's worth noting though like he's not like you said a no-brainer at MVP Where you don't even consider anybody else because he again is half of his half he's been the Niners highest scoring guy on the half the time so If I have one lineup is McCaffrey gonna be the MVP probably but not quite as firm in that And 17-5 if he's not at MVP and he's not going to be the highest scoring guy You know there are some thoughts to considering looking elsewhere That brings us to looking at overall perfect line of trends for similar games because you did hint at this before and Kind of the dynamic we notice in higher scoring games So you looked at perfect lineups a single-game DFS and What do you notice when you dug into the data on somewhat similar games? Yeah, so I just gather all the perfect lineups for single-game slates on Fandle and I have 78 in my database with a spread between one and a half and three and a half and a total of 45 and a half to 49 and a half So here are some things that stand out and of course you can't apply this blanket because we you know We just talked about someone who's averaging almost 140 scrimmage or is a game with his teammates healthy so that does You have to factor all of that in who's playing and all that kind of stuff But this can help us get some ideas now especially for those who haven't played a lot of single-game DFS How much salary you actually use is a big part of the conversation 15 of these lineups so only 19 per spent 19% spent all 60,000 in salary cap 36 of them so 40 46 in this sample 46 percent spent 59,000 or more so to clarify Over half of the perfect lineups that fit similar spreads in totals saved at least 1,500 in salary So that means like when you're going through and voting lineups and you're like well, okay I can get up to a George Kittle or I can get up to a Brandon I you you know It's gonna be very tempting But you also have to factor in what kind of contest you're playing if you're playing against a lot of people It can be beneficial to get more unique and leave some salary on the table And I know it feels weird and you know usually whenever we're talking full slate DFS you don't want to leave a whole lot of salary on the table Single-game very different ballgame As far as the MVP splits go Quarterbacks are a little less likely to make it as the MVP in these perfect lineups 30 percent of the time they get there It's about 35 percent for the full average Of course, you have Patrick Mahomes in the conversation and Brock Purdy does have more of a ceiling than I think sometimes people realize but That's noteworthy this one running backs 27% of the time which is down 1% from the full sample average of course we talked about McCaffrey's Probability to be the top score at least in my simulation model So take that one with a grain of salt, but what I do think is relevant here is That receivers have been the MVP 35% of the time in these similar lineups, which is up 10 percentage points from the full sample average Titans are average at 4% but we kind of have two tight ends so long as George Kittle is healthy Who are more like wide receivers? So again, you don't want to just ignore the tight ends because they don't make it in similar lineups because we have two guys who are pretty much the best two tight ends in football whenever they're good to go so Those are the the salary trends and MVP trends Do you want to give any notes on that because there's a lot more I can get dig into I want to hear you dig into the rest to think that I'll guide the rest of the conversation Okay, so the one of the big questions you have to ask when you're building a single-game lineup is are you playing Three players from one team and two from the other or are you playing four from one and one from the other more that onslaught lineup? Three two lineups are more likely in similar games 65% compared to the full sample of 61 percent. It's not drastic, but 65 percent of time means You know, you should lean toward a more balanced approach than going for the four one The four one definitely though has a lot of ceiling potential if this game does get out of hand one way or the other 33% of these liners have defenses 33% of kickers 60% have a kicker or a defense so more than half did have a kicker or defense even in these tight spreads higher scoring games But those are actually all slightly lower than the full sample average So you can probably get away with not going with a defense or kicker Although I will say I see Jake Moody and a lot of optimizers this week with Moody specifically and honestly with with butkurt like I think one thing to note is that We don't have a lot of lower salary guys who get usage on other team And I think that that does increase the value of kickers because most of the guys who get any volume on these two sides are high salary so As annoying as it may be to use a kicker I think that's 60% number of having a defense or a kicker in there I would I would not ignore that number even as much as it pains me And yeah, Jim historically does not like to use kickers and I do like I Will use them in the right setups like if I have a 4-1 I am very likely to have like a lineup with four players from one team and one from the other I am very likely in that setup to have a kicker because it assumes a positive game script for them And kickers are more likely to get work like get feel-good attempts in a positive game script. Yeah I just mean if I do Yeah, I get it But the thing is you like and this will kind of parlay into what I'm what I'm gonna talk about next like If McCaffrey has a solid game like you were alluding to before but you know, Pacheco, Kelsey I you click these guys have big games you need the salary to get to them so you You have to think long and hard about whether you're taking One quarterback or two It's tempting. It's very actually pretty easy if you're not playing McCaffrey to play both quarterbacks 35% of these perfect lineups again with like similar spreads and totals to what we have this week 35% had two quarterbacks, which is up from 29% on the full sample again, you you really can't play McCaffrey with the two quarterbacks, but if you're not playing McCaffrey It is very tempting Well, would you put in there? I put in McCaffrey with the Holmes and Brock Purdy And it made it down to sixty five hundred left for two and let's let two golfers for for two more players And I want nothing to do with that Yeah, and then while we're talking McCaffrey still cuz we're just talking the whole show With the running back at MVP in these types of games. You do send it. You do tend to see a Quarterback make it pretty often still whether it's not going to be both of them and again Pacheco could make it and you could have like both of them But McCaffrey, you know, so that's that's what you got to keep in mind with with these trends but 67% of the time a Quarterback makes it even if the RB or an RB is the MVP and that's up from 59% on the full sample of Running back lead lineups and 76% of the time it was the the running backs own quarterback So that goes into like, okay, maybe it's 49ers, you know run away with this McCaffrey Purdy or on the flip side Pacheco scores twice Mahomes is efficient getting the ball in in a scoring position These are the types of things you got to ask yourself Whenever you're bowing your lineups So the two things in there that I think are most pertinent are three things The first one is going all the way back to the beginning about salary Over on Fando, let me share this here The contest we're sharing right now is the big game bowl, which is 2.2 million in total prizes But there are 291,000 entries possible in this contest. That means You're gonna want to get unique if you want to get first place to yourself which you should because it's million bucks and Your expected value of a lineup decreases the more times that lineup is duplicated Because it it caps the highest amount you could possibly win So like let's say you have even just one dupe It takes one of the lineup with person with the same lineup in that contest It takes the most you can win from one million dollars down to half a mil So the bigger the contest the larger your incentive to deviate and the easiest way to deviate is By leaving salary on the table because as opposed to being fixated on that $60,000 you have a lot more combinations at 59 5 etc etc and the further you go down the more combinations you have I tend to go with the rule of I would like $1,500 or more on the table If I have to go up to leaving a thousand on the table I will but like it does pain me a bit and I think for this specific contest You're going to want to leave a bit more than that just in order to try to get yourself a more Unique lineup there. So that's thing number one thing number two Is what you alluded to with the two quarterback lineups because higher scoring Tighter games that makes a lot of sense where we can see more prevalence of two quarterbacks But then thing number three is the prevalence of a quarterback in there with a running back at mvp You ran some analysis on correlations between players on these two teams and I thought the thing that was most reassuring for me within those correlations was that Brock Purdy and christian mccaffrey The very tight tie between the two of them. So that fits a high scoring game because Purdy needs touchdowns to be a great dfs play because quarterbacks scoring is a dependent touchdowns And it does fit a script where the cheese or the the Niners likely ahead. So Again, I'm not tied to having mccaffrey in a single like if I have one lineup having a single one in there But I think if I do go mccaffrey at mvp in that one lineup I'm very inclined to put Brock Purdy in that exact same lineup at 14-5 but we'll do to the correlations you ran but also the the analysis you had on A Quarterback still being pretty likely to be in there even when a running back is at mvp So that was kind of my key takeaways and the data you had there anything else that you wanted to expand upon there Only thing I want to clarify is what Jim's saying about salary is that if you're trying to think about how to win tournaments like big large tournaments it is Almost certainly beneficial to consider ways to leave salary on the table It's not to say that the top salary won't have all 60,000 used The perfect could the winner could somehow be unique if you play like a cow use check or something Like it's possible, but I just wanted to kind of say that It's not that you can never play lineups that are using all of the salary cap. It's just You know, if you're playing with five your friends in a friend's league, you don't have to do it, you know Yeah, yeah, but whenever it comes to like What is it 291 thousand entries? Yeah, just just think about What it's going to look like if you have maybe There's a pretty easy sort of logic Logical uh to qb lineup you can kind of build With using all the salary, you're probably not the only one to think that and if your goal was to win a million dollars like You know it could happen I guess with that lineup, but it's not gonna help. Yeah Because I don't I think you want to clarify it there Yeah, I just wanted to to clarify that uh, where we're coming from from a game theory dependent standpoint, okay when it comes to salary, we're not advocating that the best lineup you can build Is leaving salary on the table. It's you're playing against a lot of people in this instance and I just wanted to Um, make sure we had that buttoned up before we move on talk about matchups and usage and everything like that Okay, so we talked through mccaffrey your numbers have them around 37 to be a high screen player I think digging back into the data that sounds pretty much spot on so I agree with that which leaves us with Math uh 63 of lineups to figure out who else we want to put an MVP now I mentioned before that the Niners high screen player in their 10 Relevant games for everyone being healthy so mccaffrey five times debo twice frock pretty twice. I use once for the chiefs their most relevant sample, um I just looked at them since they're bi-week excluding week 18. So that's when they kind of tightened up the passing game Um Usages to be more focused on rashi rice travis kelsey. So that's a 10 game sample as well Rashi rice has been the highest scoring chief three times as a pacheco three times all three of those for pacheco came In games where there was no jerrick mckinnon Um, so that's noteworthy there for this week travis kelsey was twice patrick mahomes twice so I feel like if i'm not going with mccaffrey I'm pretty tempted to go With what you had discussed where wide receivers in higher scoring games are more likely to wind up at mvp And there are other situations the chief side scoring player during the playoffs Their three playoff games has been rashi rice in the wildcard round travis kelsey in the division round travis kelsey in the conference championship so If i'm not going mccaffrey i'm giving a lot of thought to going towards a non quarterback in that mvp slot Where are you on your non mccaffrey mvp lineups as far as mvp? Uh, yeah, i'll just say that I have mahomes around 21 to be the mvp and purdy I think i'm a little higher on him than other places I've I've seen just because I think you know the upside is a little more tangible than I think people quite Give him credit for he's around 16 17 percent. So Then there's a lot of guys, uh, just sort of in that that other tier um, so the the probability still says To go quarterback, um And basically I think what you're kind of asking Even though this isn't exactly what you're asking is well, if you're not playing mccaffrey at mvp My assumption is more that the chiefs win And in that instance, I'm looking more toward, uh Mahomes Pacheco and look Kelsey's got a tough matchup, but I don't know if that matters too much, uh, because he can get volume-based production and in a lot of good Red zone work One thing and again, this is this is a really hard show to do because there's like game theory and and match up notes Both of these teams are top 10 In yards after the catch allowed per reception the chiefs actually allowed only two yards Uh over expectation two yards after the catch Over expectation This whole year. Yeah. Yeah, which and like I think the falcons had won But like every other team had at least 100 because you don't really generate negative yards after the catch like over expectation But the 49ers are second and yards after the catch Per reception allowed. So like there might not be a ton of extended plays And that makes me a little bit lower maybe on Like an iuk or a resi rice. So I think I would have to go Mahomes And I don't think that that's going to be like shocking to anyone But this is just someone who can have a takeover game if he needs it and so I would go Mahomes and then I think I would go Kelsey next So let me give you my pitch on azeh pacheco. I know I said pass catcher before but um I mentioned before 10 relevant games since the bi-week where They've had their pass catchers being more concentrated and stuff like that You couldn't narrow that sample a bit more and make it the seven games that pacheco has played without jerry McKinnon in that in that time in those seven games pacheco has been the highest scoring chief three separate times The Niners do struggle against the run. It just hasn't mattered a whole lot this year because they've been in a positive script so often so They could have success on the ground against this Niners team If we don't have macaferied mvp that that swings things a bit more towards the cheese in terms of game script And without McKinnon Pacheco's role has been awesome. Uh, it's a six game sample 19 carries per game 3.7 targets per game 109.7 Yards from scrimmage per game and a 55 red zone share that 55 red zone share is actually better than macafery Who's at 49.7 percent albeit in a much larger sample of 16 games versus six for pacheco Pacheco's salary is 12 5 That's pretty nice as well so I feel like pacheco is far less likely to be at mvp In single game dfs than my home So you're getting a bit more unique in that regard Which means you could probably use allocate a bit more salary Leave a bit less on the table And again, he's been their highest scoring guy in three out of seven games In their relevant sample without McKinnon, even when they've had concentrated workloads for the past catchers So that's why I think that if i'm not going macafery, maybe I do want to go pacheco at mvp over someone like mahomes Yeah, I think you're right. Um I didn't expect you to say that but i'll take it. Yeah. Well, I mean like you said This is just like so hard to do Because I have notes on why I think the chiefs will be really past heavy and it's because teams have been They have the highest pass rate over expectation against the 49ers compared to any other team Um, whenever you look at there aren't a ton of like top 12 pass defenses that are like Below average against the run. There's only three matchups for Mahomes in that span, but he has a pass rate over expectation of plus 10.4 In those matchups full season they they lead and pass rate over expectation I just think there's going to be a lot of volume and from what I've seen and you know, you don't need volume You need efficiency From what I've seen from this team It really does Suggest to me that they're going to go out with what mahomes get to and I know that The box score doesn't look super great but He Is due for a lot more touchdowns than he's had um Both rushing and passing I think he has not had a rushing touchdown yet this year This is the Super Bowl Again, I don't think you can go wrong with mahomes as your MVP I don't think anyone would really even give it as much thought as I am Because it's really I mean probably like if we're talking probabilities It's it's macaffery or mahomes and then everyone else is sort of tertiary at best from there But I I would like to know your thoughts and expectations on what we get from mahomes this week. Is it more of the 250 yard one touchdown game or do you think that we see this team throw the ball a lot against the 49ers based on What we've seen from the chiefs in the past I think that what we've seen from andy reid this year is he's a bit more patient and willing to run the football That he has been in years past Which is a credit to him because it's been a criticism of him in the past Is that he's a bit too pass heavy and like you said, you know that that pass rate over expectation like That's a very big number. So yeah, it's absurd The data says they will go pass heavy But I think that I admire how patient reid has been this year and that's a big part of why I feel okay going with pacheco Over mahomes is like my secondary mvp consideration So I think to me I actually feel pretty good about pacheco in the in the situation Yeah, it's not that I'm like low on my homes, but I do think that I think the Niners match up pretty well against this chief's offense from a passing perspective because their their issue is With outside wide receivers and the chief's outside wide receivers suck It is indoors, which does help my homes He has not played a game indoors since that vegas game back on november 26th and he shredded in that game so I I don't know. I mean like i'm not gonna like talking about my homes But like personally I if I have one lineup and i'm picking a non-macafery mvp I'd rather go pacheco over the homes personally. I think you're getting a lot more leverage doing that So do you that's a big part of the thought process? Do you rank your mvp's? macafery pacheco then mahomes or is mahomes not number three for you is it somebody else? Purdy's above mahomes for me Wow um I think purdy might be above pacheco actually um Which might draw After all that well because like you talked me into If you're not going macafery you kind of assume that the the cheese win etc etc, but Now purdy's a better leverage play It might think like if i'm thinking about in terms of like Being different in a tournament what I which I need to do. I think I should go pacheco So i'll put pacheco to just because the leverage he would get me and i'll put brock purdy number three purdy Has a tremendous efficiency stats the entire year His efficiency stats in the playoffs have been very good despite the fact he's had some like weird Looking plays he's running a bit more two six rusher temps and against green bay five against detroit. We saw the scrambling be Pretty additive in that game as well. So he has at least some Ground rushing upside here as well In addition to the fact that he can be very efficient as a passer So it's kind of just like a bet on if I don't go macafery, maybe the touchdowns happen to break through the air versus on the ground So I think I go macafery one pacheco two purdy three mahomes four is my ranking But I will still filter in Debo sanyl I will I will filter in kelsey and rice because I think that this game just sets up for being pretty diverse at mvp Because I do think it can break a lot of ways. I know it's not like The most groundbreaking analysis, but I do think that that that is what the data tells us to do here Well, yeah, I think you're doing to show off a disservice if you don't Think about all those options and one of the things about how this this one simmed out for me is like It's a lot of guys between like five and ten percent chance to Lead in fandal points. Where is purdy versus pacheco in that regard? So like purdy's like 17 percent pacheco is like seven and a half percent I have a I have a big gap there But I don't think that they're going to be that that much differently rostered again I still think there's like a sort of a negative perception with purdy's true upside. Um Now Understandably and this is like not not this also isn't groundbreaking But he does correlate with individual pass catchers But I do want to kind of mention typically when you're playing a quarterback in single game dfs You're much more open to multiple pass catchers the 49ers have weirdly had like Bad correlations between like kiddle and iuk kiddle and debo debo and iuk. Yeah, that's That's the script of what's happened in the past. It's not predictive of like what could happen You know this week kiddle and iuk could have big games. It is just sort of something that I've noticed. Um When digging into These numbers a bit more because we dig into different types of numbers for super bowl I think it's relevant. Does that give you any pause or if you're so if you're playing purdy at mvp How are you stacking the 49ers? I'm probably putting McCaffrey in there. So purdy plus mccaffrey leaves me 93 333 left. I'm we'll talk about values in a second, but I'm probably gonna bring it back with mark west valve that's scantling Sorry um And that puts me at 10, uh, 10,250 left Probably a jake moody lineup in there because moody does correlate well with uh, both purdy and mccaffrey Makes sense. You're kind of assuming more of more of a positive script and then I've got 11 to 5 left I can go iuk and leave 10 5 in the table or kiddle and leave Uh, or I can go iuk and leave 11 or 1000 the table or or go kiddle and leave, uh, 15 I probably lean towards going kiddle there Because at least more more salary on the table and I think it's a better matchup advantage for him versus iuk I use facing the corners for the cheese who are really really good So I think that kiddle matches up particularly well against this defense again, assuming he gets into full practice by friday We're back on the full by friday like yeah, you're leaving only one five on the table But it's a 4-1 cheese lineup that potentially could get you more unique purdy at mvp with mccaffrey not at mvp I think both those are unique um setups. So I do think that That's kind of like my default thought process if I have purdy at mvp It makes sense. I think jim put together like a logical stupid No, it wasn't logical because I shouldn't have purdy at mvp and moody in the flax because every time purdy gets a touchdown Moody's getting just an extra point versus the field goal So this line would be better if the calf read mvp purdy at flax, but whatever well, um I could go like niner's d events I guess instead Purdy and moody do do have a pretty strong correlation this year. Right. I'm just kind of shouting that one out, but Also while we're talking correlations just some other notes. I have uh, brandon iuk who we haven't talked about a lot. Um His his probability for for being the top score is pretty low um Just both with my stuff and other stuff that I've been looking into But he correlates better with christian mccaffrey than debo or kiddle which makes sense because he's not as touchdown dependent He's not getting like rushing attempts to like not getting a rushing attempt yet Like I think debo and mccaffrey do not mesh very well Hey, I am much more likely to use debo in a non mccaffrey lineup Correct. So if you're looking to maybe build a 49ers heavy lineup Um, again, anything can happen debo and in mccaffrey could both have rushing touchdowns I I understand it, but if you're really thinking about what's most likely iuk has has had a stronger correlation with mccaffrey um I think that also makes sense And if this team is going to push the ball Uh, which is interesting because like the chiefs blitz it's on their their top five and uh blitz rate. Yeah They're almost 38 percent nfo average is 29 but purdy against five plus rushers according to next gen stats 0.33 epa per drop back with the nfo average being minus 0.08 But it's not just like dump offs either his ados really high I don't I didn't write that one down when I was looking but it's like Nine and a half yards even against like the blitz. He'll throw it never He'll throw it. Um so Where are you with iuk because I think we We would rank him last of the you know the main 49ers I feel pretty okay with that. Yeah, frankly But again, it's all because like I feel better about other guys But also again, I alluded to the matchup before we're like I just worry about outside wide receivers against guys like luxurious need and the other Demons the chiefs have in their secondary like they're not a black hole like fred warner Um gotta bring that one up at least once per show. We're talking niners, but yeah, you do Um I just think it's he has the toughest matchup of the group. So I'm lowest on him and also like Because I'm so fixated on maccafrey fixated on pacheco That decreases the odds I wind up in this range and like if I could just get to You know $500 more for a sheet rise. I'll take the discount on kiddles stuff like that I think that that's why there are a couple reasons why I wound up being lower on iuk I've got to be lower on somebody and right I think iuk is the first one I turn to as far as being lower on them Than consensus and the second one is probably kelsey due to salary at $13,000 Yeah, the chiefs are second and catch rate over expectation allowed to receivers third in yards per route run Then as you have kelsey pulled up here the 49ers fifth and catch rate over expectation tenth in yards per route run allowed Two tight ends, but interestingly they are 27th and target per route rate allowed to the position so We could see volume for kelsey again Just cat we never like we never break down games to this this point until we get to the super bowl Even like the conference championships, we don't do this But again both teams are really really good at limiting yards after the catch Yeah kelsey can get yards after the catch but does not need yards after the catch Which does make him appealing, but I know that it's going to be a really really difficult matchup for him Is it weird to think that rice is more dependent on yak than kelsey because in the playoffs Kelsey has a 27% deep target share versus rice is at 13% kelsey's double that in terms of like deep targets And he also has a higher overall target share so I don't know like I just said that I would be lower on kelsey but like That's because of sour though. He's 13,000 rice is 11,000. So yeah, I think with like Overall thought process rice is the better play at 11,000 But like I do think he gets ding more for the yak discussion You were having as far as like just because he just gets less down for the work and kelsey does Yeah, his a dots uh a lot smaller And but that's one of those questions of like well You know Those those yards after the catch number are good, but both these teams are good at getting yards after the catch So it doesn't matter like you go that route but yet is It's hard to look at kelsey in particular and say he's not going to get double digit targets Like 85 yards probably score a touchdown and be really solid I'm not saying I'm like obviously not guaranteeing that but based on what his Workload is and the fact that he doesn't need To break a you know 75 yard george kittle kind of tight end route That that's definitely appealing, but yeah, you make a good point with rice In the playoffs, he's got 1.3 downfield targets per game Which for me is only 10 yards downfield kelsey's at 3.7 It's a pretty big difference and so that intermediate passing for for kelsey. I think is very appealing But we love kelsey. We love rice. It's such a weird one to break down to because There's a very they're a very minimal Very few players in this game that are going to sneak up on us These are two of the most concentrated teams in terms of their workloads That we have to break down like Rice and iu to this level So I'm good with both of course. I think you make a good point with the salary being what it is. Yeah rishi rice 28 target sharing the playoffs kelsey's at 30 percent. Obviously we want it for at least for me I'd say obviously I'd prefer to have kelsey if they were the same salary right, right, but Rice is he's got a very good opportunity to do some stuff on the outside. Okay I'm gonna ask you to rank Not all of them, but like give me your top three from kelsey to Kittle i'm gonna i'll do mine first so you can think about it Uh, this is between 13 000 and fan dual salary and 10 000 to george kittle considering salary I want you to rank me your top three my top three personally our pacheco one debo two It's between rice and kittle for third I think because of the salary I might lean towards kittle at 10 000 But like I think he's 3a rice is 3b Well, rice's target share will be higher So, okay. I'm gonna go pacheco one debo two rishi rice three george kittle four How are you ranking that range after considering salary? Okay, am I including kelsey or no? Yes Uh Pacheco debo kelsey cool. I think that makes a lot of sense. Let's talk now about value plays I think you can include the kickers in this discussion too because harrison buckner salaries 95 jake moody 9 000 She's defense 9 000 9ers defense 85, but then we get down to guys Like uh marquez valda scantling and all of uh shout out rich rebar as always the ancillary jabronis on both of these teams I think mvs is a great risk of being in far too many of my lineups What could possibly go wrong with that the reasoning for that with marquez valda scantling is He ran a ton of routes actually led the cheese and routes run during the conference championship game So he was out there a bunch. They tightened their rotation. That's benefited or marquez valda scantling has benefited from that in the playoffs only a nine percent overall target share for mvs, but 27 deep target share and it seems like the yips might be gone Finally from mvs. So I think that matters. You're putting a downfield receiver indoors against a team that does struggle versus outside wide receivers so I was talking about diversification diversification at mvp I might not do a good enough job of diversifying my values. Yeah, I think we're gonna have way too much mvs this week Where are you on him and then talking about the rest of the value plays So 49ers are top 10 and a dot their third in yards per target allowed on downfield passes Uh That's something I've tracked a lot with mahomes and whether he's pushing the ball downfield Against teams that try to limit the downfield pass He did most of the season. He still isn't like completely just You know going james winston and everything's 20 yards downfield, but in the playoffs, he's been much more open to Or I guess the game plan. I should say it's not just like his decision. Um it's been uh It's been more downfield friendly. So that does have me feel better Feeling better about mvs but The lack of value in this game Does kind of nullify a lot of what we talked about because the one lineup you built I was like, I know you're gonna plug in mvs. Yeah, of course I I think we both can just agree and move past the fact that uh mvs is the best play Let's say We'll just say below the kickers sure Maybe even including the kickers, but I might I might prefer a game script dependent kicker. I think over mvs but Who else at 7500 or I guess mvs the only one at 75 but Who else is in your player pool? Because if it's just mvs That changes a lot. It's not just mvs Um, is it just in watson? Oh, I mean like he'll be in my player pool, but I'd really rather not. Um, I'll use gray. Yeah The downside is People are talking about no gray and I hate it. Um, this used to be my guy People are on to him and it upsets me but no gray like they've run a lot of two tight end sets Um, can't keep and no a gray I'm not trying to keep. I'm annoyed that like I used to like him because like he saves a lot of salary He plays a lot. He runs a lot of routes on the field a whole lot But if you're gonna give me no a gray at non zero roster rate Hard pass dude like that's rough. Um, I'm still gonna use him But because $5,500 goes a long way but like So I think bill Simmons has like a same game parlay on fan dual sports book And I'm pretty sure no a gray is something no a gray related. It's in that same game part. I'm trying to find it right now Two plus catches. I think two plus catches like But also I uh, like I think it's good process on their part But that's why I hate it because I don't want people on this guy Like not because I wanted lower roster rate Uh lower like oh he's this well-capped secret It's because like I can't justify no a gray if he's not on like three percent of rosters So one thing I like to do especially in the playoffs is Just run optimizers that you can find through google. Um Here's how you're googling dfs optimizers. Yes, it's not I find all these all these sites. Um No a gray is in so I found six no a gray's in two of them The two that he's in is this third duplicate lineups. Um If you play no a gray you have a lot of flexibility Of not Using all the salary of course optimizers you're not gonna necessarily care about that unless you change things But my whole goal is like run an optimizer to see what happens. Um He's probably gonna be relatively popular I don't know though like If it's ever gonna be enough if you pair no a gray salary savings with saving salary It's gonna offset a lot. So Uh, I see the case for it. No, he got his anytime touchdown. So he's plus 950 anytime. Uh the prop that They had discussed on the bill Simmons podcast With him and cousin sow was like, I think it was no gray first touchdown at 47 to 1 It's not 48. So they were talking about it might not have translated a lot of action on people's behalf So maybe I'm overthinking this whole no a gray thing like I think people sitting on their phones They're watching gronk make his kick of destiny. They want to enter in a single game lineup Or do they actually scroll down to no a gray? Probably not. So I'm probably overthinking it Yeah, so No a gray You know Is he a if you're building one lineup? No five lineups Potentially because I don't want to be as an all five like he's like, he's my off ramp for that basically Okay, so we have now MVS no a gray I'm okay with Justin Watson I can get to juan jennings. I talked about Some same game parlays I like on wednesdays covering the spread And one of the same game parlays was under on receptions for both juan jennings and justin watson But like at their respect to salaries. I do understand it so I think like Nobody I love other than MVS. I'm going to consider justin watson willing to consider juan jennings Um, okay with no a gray I do you get to richie james or like, you know, I don't know. It's tough down here So I know How quickly this will get shut down or at least I I assume Are you gonna ask your area stony? No, okay. If there's no jerk mckinnon Oh ch Yeah, the salary is 6500 in the playoffs without mckinnon. He's at a 25 snap rate Not a lot of usage on those snaps, but Again, if you're if you're playing the angle of the chiefs being a little bit more patient or something Um, you know, he he runs a okay number of routes. It's not like I think he's a great play Would he be in a consideration set for you? Sure um Because like he's been playing a lot of like the garbage third down snaps that they where they want to rest pecheco They'll take him out and they'll put ch in there for those pecheco's getting like the two the two minute usage Which is important But like they'll put ch out there for like the the garbage plays like third and 18 Where my homes will scramble for 25 yards. Um, but like And that's worth something so I don't love it, but like I don't hate it Okay, so it sounds like There's mvs number one Everyone else is rotational. Yeah And it's tough because when you break down single game normally There are a few names that pop Somewhere but with these two teams in particular Everything is so concentrated. It's really difficult Does that alter your view of mccafrey knowing how starved we are for value Like that was getting mccafrey Allows you to not go as heavy to mvs and allows you not to worry about All these guys we can't talk ourselves into So I think we started off the right way talking about why mccafrey makes a ton of sense That's not groundbreaking But he's only 37 likely for me. I think maybe a little bit higher other places, but not substantially so to lead in fandal points And then you also have the caveat of if you want to save salary like leave salary on the table It is really hard to do with mccafrey and you're in A position where you're probably playing mvs or the 49ers defense or something It makes it a lot harder Unless you know, but if you're building three lineups and you want to be like, you know what? I think mccafrey is the mvp. I think he they just lean on him I'll find ways to save set like you can make it happen. Absolutely um But what's hard is like the 49ers in games with everyone healthy 84 percent of their targets go to They're three pass catchers in mccafrey, right? And if you include you on jennings, it's 91 percent like There's not a lot to to dig into other than that and for the chiefs Kelsey and Rice lets you say 30 percent of the targets a piece Nobody else is getting even 10 percent of the targets in the playoffs like including mvs Yeah, so Nobody else can we can't really plan a flag in anyone. We can talk about why we like someone I think we I think you made a great case for why Florida scantling is the best value, but he's also like the first value behind the kickers and the defense He's not super low salary Like and I think that you know, he didn't make any of the optimizers that I found So that's at least something but you know it's It's tough It is a really difficult slate for for value and that will ultimately play a role in how you view christian mccafrey If i'm playing one lineup I'm probably finding a way to build around mccafrey and get Weird with it. Yeah, um, that means probably glossing over both quarterbacks Going with maybe even pacheco And mccafrey say like okay the read even though my default read is That this game has the over it's maybe a little bit lower scoring All that over all those points come through those two guys Like running back touchdowns field goals from moody You know, do you the data uh from the I have this sheet so I could just run it myself But uh going back to that sample you mentioned How often do they have two running backs in the same perfect lineup and is that different from the full sample? uh two right, sorry Could ask me this before I know um But like if you go with mccafrey pacheco One of the kickers and mvs you can use any of the Secondary guys kelsey debo rice katal and iyuki want you could just use this lineup duplicating swap out the kickers Swap in you know other pass catcher etc etc and get go crazy with that too so about 26 of these lineups have Two running backs. Okay Uh, that's not a number that I have I have a lot of different numbers, but I don't have that one So just just bear with me. This is 26. It's pretty high. I think yeah, yeah, so I'm kind of into mccafrey plus pacheco is like my I've got one lineup build personally 159 About 28 full sample. So I hate your data now. I regret asking. Yeah, but one out of four and I think it's a very logical way to go With these two guys specifically given the way they're used. Yeah, I think so. Yeah, great usage There's no mccanon You know, you're getting probably two running backs with this I mean, I'd say 75 but maybe 80 snap rate a lot of good usage a lot of red zone work um And you you know, you could you can do some stuff there even if you don't play mbs So you can kind of make it work. So I'm gonna play mbs. So I don't bother but I think if I'm building one lineup, that's really appealing though. I think so too. I think that's I'm glad we talked through this for an hour to settle on. Hey, let's just do the both both running backs together But like I do think that's the most appealing Build to me personally is going with mccafrey plus pacheco Yeah, it's It's enticing a lot of ways to go with this one. Yeah, but with the lack of value kind of makes it tricky. So Um, but that's that's the fun about single game dfs. You think about every angle you think about well if If the chiefs go up big, what does that do for the 49ers? Like, right? It's fun. Yeah, exactly Any final thoughts for you before we close up shop for today and this year on the nfl side of things Uh, thanks for listening everyone. Um, it's been another Fun year for the heat check and I hope that We hit the right mvp is this week and have the right core. Let's go get unique be willing to Forgo guys who are amazing cyborg robotic players like patrick mighomes, you know, it stinks through it against him You know, hold on to your butts kind of slate if you're not on mighomes as high as consensus is But I think that's the right to play things here and we'll see we can get this thing to Finish off on a high note for 2023 2024. I never know what year to say Is that what you were looking for more for like any final thoughts is Game analysis By game analysis, you mean hold on to your butts. Like that's what I gave so look, there are Seven players who can Go bonkers in this game mark was about the scantling No gray who are the other five connolly christ yeah, okay Seven's probably not even enough Two three four five. Yeah, there's more than that. So you can't you can play them all gray Let's play this out harrison butger. Come on. We have four more Um, yeah, but you got to get comfortable just knowing you can't play everyone Can't play everyone in every lineup. So it's I don't know. I think a single game dfs is a blast. It is. Alrighty That is all that we have for today and of this year But don't worry because there's still plenty of heat check every tuesday. We're talking pga dfs and betting It's now a combo show here on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed and over on vandal tv plus So make sure you check out that show if you want to check out some pga dfs Always a lot of fun. Of course ufc the austin swain and that's also betting in dfs And of course the daily iso with tom becchio every weekday for nba Brandon if people have questions for you on twitter, where can they find you there? I'm on twitter at goodwill 13 gdu la 13 and i'm on twitter at jim sonnis You can find me on threads at jim dot sonnis and check out fan dual research on twitter at fan dual research I want to thank you all for tuning in for today and this year. We appreciate all of you as brandon said as always Good luck to you on sunday. Enjoy the game. Hopefully it's a fun one We'll talk to you once again tuesday for some pga and next year for some nfl dfs This is another heat check fantasy podcast right here on the fan dual podcast network