 Thanks for opting this course and before we talk about the course outline and assignments and the evaluation process. I would like to start with some basic information about why management of change course is required. What is the urgency of studying the management of change? Can anyone tell when was the first email sent and in wild gases 80s, 90s, 95, 70s. So, in 71 first email was sent in NASA and Pentagon and that is the formal emergence of the internet revolution that revolutionary technology called internet. And still we have still we do not know much about what is what to do with the internet policy. Still governments are clueless how to deal with the internet content, how to deal with the businesses, how to text them based on internet and all that. So, still we do not have very clear idea what to do with the business models based on the internet. Now, compare that internet policy and compare the internet technology so many other technologies which are of equally disruptive nature coming up and going to come in the near future. And this is the not exhaustive list we can look at machine learning, blockchain technology, big data analytics, small data analytics, internet of things, variable technology, artificial intelligence, robotics, additive manufacturing technology, virtual reality, cloud based technology, quantum computing and all these technology can have a disruptive impact on businesses and organizations. So, you can imagine one internet technology which has so much disruption comparing to all these many technologies coming up and what they are going to have the impact upon businesses, governments, people communicate, education so on and so forth. So, this is the backdrop in which we are going to discuss about malignant change codes. There are few disclaimers about the course. It is not about how to adjust and cope with the change process, the very basic of this course is that what we are going to discuss is not to make you cope up with change, it is aimed at preparing you mentally to lead the change process. And another thing is that learning is our joint responsibility. So, there will be lot of exercises if you think along with the instructor then there is a possibility of learning. There is otherwise whatever we are going to create whatever we are going to discuss has a zero value until and unless you combine you bring yourself in the form of some number in front of those zeros then only they will be any value created in this course. One element of change course is required if we look at and if you are going to enter the job market now and if you look at how a job market will look like, how will be the nature of organization in 2040, we have very less idea about this there can be changes which we cannot even imagine for example, how the job market will look like in 2040. Either billions of people will be redundant or long run automation will keep generating new jobs and greater prosperity to all of us. What is going to happen we cannot definitively say a drone does not require any crew no man power is required to actually operate it being on the plane, but at the same time to run a full flageot commercial drone you need a big team. So, job vanish at one level are created at another level. What is going to happen we do not know, but what are the factors going to impact the business organizations and our society are nonetheless these. There is increasing globalization and even if there are voices against the globalization and localization globalization is going to remain a force and it is going to come up in a very very different way different ways. For example, there might be focus on the local production, but the distribution can happen globally likewise globalization is going to remain the factor. Technological changes we just talked about so many disruptive technologies which have emerged and emerging in last few years going to have a disruptive impact on the business models organizations and society function. Aging population and diversity the psychographic profile and the age profile we see at workplaces in India is not going to to be the same it is going to be very very different. There are many countries which are struggling with the changing demographical profile in their workforce and they are trying to find different ways of dealing with that. For example, aging population is a very very important challenge a massive challenge for the Japanese economy whereas, people not going negative population growth is a concern for many Scandinavian countries. So, aging in population and diversity are going to remain challenges in the at the workplaces environment and social factors they are going to they are shifting towards the central concerns of the business. The next session we are going to discuss in more detail about how the sustainability and environmental concerns are actually resulting in all with the new business models and ways of doing businesses. So, these are the four very important unavoidable challenges inevitable challenges going to redefine the workplace and organization. If we look at how the change process has happened in last 200 years in the first part of the industrialization process we see machines were first competing with the physical ability of our of human beings. But now they are not competing on the physical abilities, but they are shifting they are replacing the cognitive capability of the human beings. Can you think about some jobs which are difficult to be replaced by the machines? Think about some jobs which are difficult at this moment we cannot very easily imagine that they can be replaced by the machines. Design of the machines ok, surgery, psychology, counseling or else legal advice, medical advice it is. So, there are lot of things like counseling, legal advice, medical advice we think that cannot be done by machines are now being taken over by machines. So, driverless cars till very recently thought that driving is a very human skill, but now we know that it can be replaced by machines to a great extent. Lot of successful experiments have taken place. Legal advice is something which we think is difficult to be replaced by machines, but the IBM systems Watson is found to be effective enough for the legal advice on large number of situations. Medical advice again there are studies which have proved which have demonstrated that on certain type of medical cases and medical problems machines are accurate in more than 95 percent cases whereas, human beings the skilled professionally qualified doctors are right in about 50 percent to 75 percent cases. So, what we are seeing is what we have realized that what we thought the jobs which require intuition are actually not the intuition of sixth sense, but these are getting insight and based on the pattern recognition. So, key insight leading to these of all these machines are that human intuition in reality is a pattern recognition. If we have enough data feeding being feeded into the system, system is intelligent enough now to get the insights and draw the conclusions and those conclusions and decisions can be as accurate or probably more accurate than human experts we currently have. So, infotech and biotech together are redefining almost all aspects of the change process all aspect of life. There are this is example of old news and very old news. Old news is in 1996 machine defeated the world champion in the chess, who is this picture is? Garry Cospro. Garry Cospro. So, blue deep there is a name of the machine which defeated Cospro and Cospro had a cult like status in USSR and then Russia people felt huge disappointment that machine is able to defeat Garry Cospro, but this is very very old. The old news is that the machines the competition and championships started amongst the machines. So, the competition was how to create more a smart and more intelligent machines and people kept creating new and new programs which were better than other programs and Stockfish 8 became world champion world chess champion and one of the Stockfish 8 was one of the programs which became world champion in 2016 this is old news there is very old news and old news. The new the news is that Google alpha 0 program defeated their Stockfish and what is so special about the alpha 0 program that it it learnt to play how to play the chess in 8 hours. So, actually did not require lot of moves being feeded in the machine into the machine and that is how the earlier machines were taking the decisions because the lot of patterns were feeded into that and they could recognize that pattern they could look at thousands and lakhs of the moves and then based on those moves they could they identified the their moves this machine the alpha 0 program is based on the machine learning principles learned how to play chess by playing with itself and as a result of that it had sudden moves which were unthinkable by human beings before. So, within 8 hours this machine learned how to play the chess and then it defeated the world's best program. So, this is the kind of pace of change we are we are seeing in the current times. So, changing happening in change otherwise is happening all the time. If we look at biologically most of our cells get replaced by new cells in same years time except few WBCs and neurons most of our cells are replaced. The only problem is when other forces and external forces want us to change we resist. We see that feudalism monarchism and traditional religions are replaced by liberal democracies communist dictatorship and fascist regimes. In future it is possibility that raising babies can be recognized as the most valuable job and governments may start paying for that. Artificial intelligence and 3D printing may overpower Bangladesh and Bangalore and they became very prosperous or like 50 percent orthodox Jews we may not require we may not be required to work and find more joy engagement and insight in studying scriptures doing meditation yoga and raising children running community engagement activities. So, in Israel we see is see this situation Israel is doing a cutting edge work in many fields whether it is robotics machine learning agriculture computing it is doing fantastic work. Israel has one of the most vibrant startup ecosystem. It is challenging any technology in the existing in the world, but at the same time a large number of Jews youth are not engaged in the so-called cutting edge technology, but they are finding comfort solace and meaning in being orthodox and studying the scripture. And many many of them are actually supported by their wives who go out and earn the bread. So, they can be a very different patterns emerging in years to come as a result of the technological changes, demographical changes, political, social changes. So, now you need to think what are the big changes that you and your organization which you are likely to work with are going are facing or going to face in the near future. So, can you think about some examples? So, now we see that the claims like in 2 minutes loan processing is possible like that. So, idea is that we need to think about it. What are the patterns? What are the factors going to redefine your work and the work of the organization which you are likely to join? Why we need to think about it? We need to look at it from the strategic perspective. Why we why any organization should bother about it is because no organization can keep on harvesting its existing complicated advantage. We all know that business survives, business profitability, sustenance and growth survives on the complicated advantage. But like product have life cycle, complicated advantage also has life cycle. So, we need to know and how we can go systematically about it that is what we are going to look at in this session. If there are so many changes at the technological, demographical and social level, how we think about the business systematically and is there are there some realistic available. So, one of the statistics available is the change in the complicated advantage. So, like product, complicated advantage also goes through a different stages. An organization launches something. So, it is a launch phase, then they start taking the benefit. If that complicated advantage is really value adding, then there is a ramp of phase where the returns goes up and increase with a very high speed, then comes this phase of exploitation. Exploitation means the investment is less and cash generation is more. In the ramp of phase, there is a cash generation, but in the in this phase we also require more and more investment. Exploitation is different because it does not require so much investment, the cash situation augurs in the exploitation phase. We know that no organization and no complete advantage can be up to be exploiting forever. They will always be challenged, they will always be competition, they will always be alternatives and as a result of that, every organization has to reconfigure its completed advantage. The organization which are able to reconfigure the completed advantage extend the life of the completed advantage. If they are not going to reconfigure the completed advantage in that segment, in that category, then they need to gracefully disengaging with that business. And disengaging business is not a defeat, but it can be a strategic move, it can be a strategic choice. One example is of a company called Milliken. In 60s till 60s, it is a very old company and till 60s, it was largely focused on textile in the chemicals. When the competition started coming in, when the completed advantage started eroding, they started looking at the different avenues and the different markets. And in 90s, they became better known for the advanced materials, flame proof products etcetera. And the same organization when face the competition in this segment which is materials and the flame proof product, in 2000, it became leader in the specialty materials and high alcohol specialty chemicals. So, an organization which was known to be a textile company became a specialty chemical company. This is one classical example and the logo which is visible here is the reflection of its journey. So, in 60s and 70s and 80s, they were having this logo and now they have this logo. If you look at the structure nature of the design of the logo and here it is more like fluid and it is like changing, it is not fixated, it is not that structured. So, that unstructured approach to the business and responsive nature of business, they want to communicate in the logo as well. So, no organization can hope to exploit the completed advantage for forever and all organizations have to reconfigure and reevaluate their completed advantage. What do I do? How do I know whether I need to rethink about the completed advantage? There are certain questions like when I do not buy my own company's product, that is the time we need to think about the completed advantage. When we are investing at the same level and not getting better margins or growth in return, that is the time we need to think about the completed advantage. Customers are finding cheaper or simpler solution to be good enough and they are not looking at our sophisticated products. Then it is time to look at whether we need to rethink our completed advantage. Competition is emerging from places we did not expect. Customers are no longer excited about what we have to offer. We launch a campaign and there is a lukewarm response or no response. Then is the time to think about the completed advantage. We are not considered the top place to work by the people we would like to hire. If we look at certain companies which were most sought after employers in 80s and 90s are not sought after employers in current times, that is reflection that they are not the leaders in the field. They are not considered to be the best places to work. And when we are not considered to be the best places to work, we need to look at where else, where is the action, where people are looking forward to join, looking forward to work. Some of our very best people when they start leaving, then also this is a sign where we need to think about the completed. So, if we out of these 7 questions, if there is a yes for 4 questions, then there is suddenly a case for organizations to think about or rethink about the completed. Probably what was what is giving edge to them in the marketplace is not attractive enough and there are substitutes coming up. In spite of knowing all this, in spite of this knowledge and this science being well established that no complete advantage can give you benefit for very long time why organizations do not serve, why do not organizations respond. Ultimately they are the very smart people working in the business organizations where which are managed by some of the most qualified minds, some of the best minds, why they miss out on some of the weak signals to change their way of looking at business. Many times they not only ignore weak signals, but they ignore the strong signals as well to rethink about their business and business approach. What might be the reason? They all are smart people coming out from IITs and IITs. It requires a real location of the resource and when organizations are functioning, they function in a certain way with set some kind of inertia and then there is a commitment for certain projects and and getting out of that project has a some cost effect to avoid that people do not give attention to the new or a budget field. What else? Is this the only reason? Is economic reason? The only reason. Inertia change. Yes, inertia other than economics where else the inertia might be in people. Why? Because if I am working with an organization and if I am not able to see the change is required then it is eventually going to affect me as well, but still people do not want to give sufficient attention to these things because of several factors and as a result of that there are certain traps which they get victim of and first of this trap is first mover trap. If I am a leader in the marketplace, if I started this business I tend to believe that I know the business the best and because of that if there are some competition for a large extent of time I have a tendency to know that that is called first mover advantage. Then there is superiority trap. If I am a player in the market for a long time, naturally I am providing a better finished product. Whenever substitute comes they are not very sophisticated and very well packaged and established players sometime confuse the sophisticated packaging with the customer's value and as a result of that they get trapped in the superiority complex. There is an example of e-commerce site. The e-commerce is going to be is going to be the redefining feature of the business field was conceptually known 10 years before. Not many companies and invested sufficiently to build their e-commerce platform and they build their e-commerce supply chain because of because they were thinking that their product will require some personal touch their product will require some human interaction and e-commerce can never replace them. If we look at the e-commerce site 10 years ago and what it is today we see a drastic change. The earlier the e-commerce site were not so sophisticated now they are sophisticated, but the organization which have invested 10 years ago now has a sophisticated sites and that is how they are able to give a better experience to the customers. The organization which have not invested and it started in that learning curve still they do not have the sophisticated interaction and they are not able to provide the best experience. Quality trap is very similar to superiority trap which is sticking to quality which customers are not willing to pay for. Many times we think that quality customers look for x things, but many times that x thing is replaced by some other thing and the quality by definition is a perception of the customer. What is considered to be quality at one level may not be considered quality at another point of time. For example, in the fashion industry in the cosmetic industry packaging was considered to be a very important factor in terms of the quality, but in last few years natural ingredients became the major defining feature and the packaging has not remained the very the most important quality nature. But if a player keeps investing on the packaging without looking at the changing taste of the customers is will be said to be trapped in the in that quality paradigm and quality being defined not by customers, but by the market players. Fifth term my market my space are the syndrome which many managers suffer from. It is a choice between mass market phone or a product like iPad. There is another example of Nokia in 2004 in Nokia some smart engineers came up with a product which was very similar to iPad. Not only the product was very similar to iPad, they developed some rudimentary apps as well, but this product was not given sufficient attention in investment because it was a new thing and they could not they could not convince the management to consider to make investment and to take this innovation in more series. Now, we know where the Apple is and where the OPA is. In the organizations how many number of people I control and how many product what is the size of my product and market they that has become a sign of the power and their influence and importance. People want to keep their team large. Secondly, changing their managerial position from leading a large team and established product to a smaller team and a new product is not considered very smart move because it has a risk involved in it and not all the new product lines are successful. So, when my success is defined based on and when the in organization the success is defined based on the number of people you are managing and the amount the monetary value of the portfolio or the product you are managing then naturally the people the best talent may not go for the new product and new businesses and new market. Organizations are subject to structure and processes. Structure processes help organizations to carry out their functions and the structure and processes become very rigid with time and as a result of that even if it is known to people that we need to bring about change organizations at times are clueless who can take that responsibility of innovation. Everybody has a set job rule. Everybody has a job description. Everybody is working for their KRA. Everybody is working for their half yearly and yearly goal in this kind of climate who has time to annoy it. If it is not in my KRA why should I waste time energy and my team's time energy for the innovation and that becomes a major obstacle in the in living about changes. And last but not the least empires to protect. If I am leading a big project, if I am leading a big market, if I am if my product size is huge this is I even if I see that the the product or this service or this line of business may not have a very very bright future I tend to prolong somehow and continue to lead that instead of creating a panic or pressing urgency alarm and going for the innovation with the full force and full insights. So, these are some of the misconceptions which prevent any organization to go for innovative products, innovative business lines and innovative ways of doing business. So, what we are talking about the quantitative advantage is not fixed in nature and what organizations have to operate on is the transient advantage. So, we are actually operating on the transient advantage economy. There is no fixed complete advantage and there are systematic ways to look at whether my organization is ready to operate on the transient advantage economy or not. So, if I am focused on extending my existing advantage or I am capable of coping with the transient advantage there are ways to look at it. For example, budget people and other resources are largely controlled by heads of the established businesses. If it is too much if if there is a very tight control by the established businesses on the budget people and other resources then probably I am focusing more on extending my existing advantage. But if the critical resources are controlled by a separate group that does not run businesses and then which can have an overview of the business then probably I am more capable of coping with the transient advantage. So, some organizations which are able to harness the capability of transient advantage are the ones which have strategic thinking groups as well and strategic thinking groups are not directly responsible to one business. So, in the strategic business group there might be experts in the HR, finance, marketing etcetera, but they look at not one business, but they look at the portfolio of the businesses. And based on their observation and readings and understanding about the market they critique the nature of the portfolio and also identify the new business opportunities. I have seen it happening in the Yes Bank. So, Yes Bank is one of the new banks which has not only harness the conventional ways of banking, but they have connected the social and natural development as well with the banking goals. And this kind of linkages is not possible without an independent group observing the marketplace and actively scouting for business opportunities which at the same time address the business and sustainability goals as well. Another example is we do not have the process for disengaging from the business. If business house does not have any idea how to disengage with the business whereas, another business house which has a systematic way of exiting business. We try to avoid failures even in uncertain situation and at another level another end is that we recognize that failures are unavoidable and try to learn from them. So, how robust processes are available to draw the learning from the failures and there are some organizations which have which have worked not only the business opportunity, but the learning and knowledge management as well. So, for many years startup group companies were giving awards for the successful innovations and in few years they have started awarding the most promising failure as well. And in the same ceremony the most promising failure is also awarded. It is just to convey that it is not necessary always to be successful in the innovation and there might be failures in the innovative projects which were really unthinkable, but thus the process involved in approaching the innovation process was if it was robust then it is worth appreciating. So, likewise there are series of questions. Innovation is an on again, off again process on again, off again process versus innovation as an ongoing systematic core process that is the sign of organization which is capable of coping with the transient advantage. It is difficult for us to pull resources from a successful business to find more uncertain opportunities whereas, in some other organization it is quite normal for us to pull resources from a successful business to find more uncertain opportunities. Our best people spend most of their time solving problems and handling crisis compared to our best people spend most of their time working on new opportunities for the organization. Likewise there are a series of questions and any organization can look at these questions and position themselves to what extent they are ready and capable of coping with the transient