 Hi everybody, it's Mayor Price and you can see I'm wearing my mask. Joining me today is Dr. Diana Cervantes. Welcome Dr. Cervantes. It's nice to have you with us. Thank you Mayor Price. Nice to be here. I'm delighted to have you. Dr. Cervantes is the assistant professor and director of the master's program in Public Health Epidemiology at UNT Health Science Center right here in Fort Worth. She has an impressive record of 17 years in public health and epidemiology. You've learned a lot no doubt right? Oh definitely. Diana is part of a team of medical experts who are advising us as we move through the COVID-19 virus here in Fort Worth and we are very lucky to have these experts as we face difficult decisions. She's going to give us a little bit today about an overview as we look at COVID-19 where we are and why stay at home, social distancing is helping and what we might see. So before we dig into that I want to give you a quick brief update as we do every day on where we find ourselves in Tarrant County and in Fort Worth. Today Tarrant County has 588 positive cases 19 deaths and 53 recovered cases and Fort Worth has 232 cases 7 fatalities and 17 recovers that's three dozen 36 additional positive cases overnight the largest single overnight that we have seen in Fort Worth since it started. Despite can only be attributed to community spread which means we don't know the source so it's generalized transmission. It's very frustrating for all of us as we head into Easter weekend and Passover which begins tonight a time that you want to be with your family and friends but we're asking you know we're pleading that you obey the stay at home rule talk to your friends through technology on Facebook on the telephone or write them a handwritten note I just wrote about four notes myself just now. I'm going to turn it over now to Dr. Sabantes who's going to share with us what it means under this order what the chart you're looking at means and what it means from an epidemiologist part of you. So Diana thank you for being with us. Thank you thank you Mayor Price. So when we look at these numbers and I think it's important for people to know that as we're looking at these numbers of course we're seeing an increase but these are the number of reported cases so when we look at reported cases we have to understand that they likely occurred meaning the infection the people were exposed and likely infected maybe a week up to two weeks ago because it takes time from the time somebody is infected to the time that they start showing signs and symptoms then get tested then that's reported those results reported. So I want to make sure that people do keep that in mind when they're looking at this numbers and don't lose hope when they see they feel well here in April we've been doing some social distancing but we're seeing this increase in cases these cases likely occurred a couple of weeks ago when we weren't implementing some of those measures we're really just starting to get that going so it's important to keep that in mind. So our goal is is this climbs will reach a spike at some point and then rather than it continuing decline will begin to flatten it? Right so we do hope that we are going to reach a peak and then all of these measures that we've been put into place with restrictions and social distancing and staying at home with that we're going to break that cycle of spreading the virus and so we're going to start seeing these numbers come down and again we're going to have to be a little patient and wait because when we see these numbers these are reported numbers and that doesn't mean these are happening just now like the infections just happen. And some of these are delays in testing to the test results have been slow correct? That's right we've heard from people getting their results as quickly as 24 hours to some people saying that it's been two to three weeks to get those results so that also plays into this. So as an epidemiologist have you seen curves like this before and do the things that have been put in place seem to help? Right so we have seen curves like this and they definitely help. One of the things that we know from other pandemics even the 1918 pandemic flu pandemic is that these social distancing measures they do help they do help prevent transmission and the spread of viruses. So social distance, staying home? Definitely. What else? Of course make sure that when you're going out you are being aware of that social distancing make sure you're washing your hands very thoroughly because we know that this virus can survive for some time on surfaces and we do touch our face a lot so we can easily touch those contaminated objects and then touch our nose our mouth our eyes and we can become infected that way so making sure that we're doing that as well and always being aware if we do start having any signs and symptoms to isolate and make sure that we're contacting our healthcare provider on what our next steps would be. And talk a little bit about the new recommendations for people to wear a mask when they go out in the community versus for medical professionals in the type of mask that you wear. Right so for the general public the recommendation is to wear cloth coverings face coverings and that is really exactly that is to prevent droplets from you coming outside to potentially infect somebody. Which you could spread before you knew you were sick. Yes so we've suspected for a long time and as now we've done studies and we've seen studies confirm that people who don't have any signs and symptoms they can definitely spread the virus and of course people who do end up getting sick even before they started having signs and symptoms they could spread the virus. Hence the reason for stopping community transmission is to stay home but wash your hands and follow good guidelines. Absolutely we're not seeing this many cases because it's hard to spread. It's easy. We're seeing this many cases because it is easy to transmit because people who have minor signs and symptoms or don't have signs and symptoms can spread the virus. So I did a video earlier today and we said pretend you're sick and stay home. Would you agree with that? Right we call it universally assuming everybody has the infection because we don't know. We can't look at somebody and say oh they've got the virus. No we can't do that. So we definitely need to assume everybody could potentially be infected and kind of treat everybody that way. Make sure we're keeping that distancing. Make sure that we are being very careful with our hand washing. So I feel better hearing from Diana, Dr. Sabantes about the practices that we have in place and that they will make a difference in our community. Would you agree and tell our viewers that you agree or don't agree? No I definitely agree. It's going to make a big difference and I know right now we're seeing a lot out on TV and we're seeing a lot in the newspaper about different models and what they're predicting and so I really want people to know a little bit more about that. So Mayor Price I don't know if you'd like me to talk a little bit about more about that modeling. Sure. Okay great so with models because we are seeing so much I want people to keep in mind that they really serve three main purposes. The first purpose is to help us explain what is currently going on. So those models show what we are seeing. We're seeing this huge increase in cases. We knew from the models that that was likely going to happen. The other thing the models help us explain is what we could potentially what we may see. But more importantly what the models do show us that those predictions and things that we do every day as individuals and in the community how we can change those predictions. So those models are not set in stone. Those models are just based on what the current information that we know now but it can definitely change on the actions the proactive actions that we take every day as individuals and in the community those will make a huge impact. So don't look at those curves and say well we're seeing so many cases it's just going to continue to rise they're not set in stone we can make a difference every day on what we're going to see tomorrow and that's very important for people to know that. And I want people also to know that when they see these models that people who make decisions so of course Mayor Price when you make decisions we look at those models and it's just one piece of the puzzle to make a decision but we really want to make sure that those models are out there just to demonstrate to the public and the community that they show a best-case scenario and a worst-case scenario. So you know the saying goes with these models that you know all models are wrong but some of them are helpful some of them are useful and so when we plan we have to think of this potential worst-case scenario and always make sure that we're investing and planning for the best-case scenario to make sure we're getting that best outcome and this is just one piece of information to help demonstrate to the community why those measures are in place that we can make a difference and flatten that curve. And there are no easy answers here and if there were we would begin to be out of this sooner but the hope is if we follow the recommendations we will get out of this and get everyone back to work and back to their families sooner rather than later. Dr. Cervantes thank you for your words today as we make these decisions we have to rely on our medical professionals our epidemiologists our public health specialists to help us make them because I'll tell you folks there's a lot of data comes our way in a day's time. One known factor though is that the stay at home work safe order does have an impact on the number diseases. The hard part is not behind the shed you saw the curve going up we don't believe we're quiet to the apex yet but we hope we're going to get there soon. You got to be diligent you got to hold up your end of this and we will too. I know it's difficult especially as we head into the high holy season but thank you for complying as I go out in my neighborhood I see more and more people who are social distancing and doing what we're recommending. So together we can beat COVID-19 and I always close by saying y'all stay safe y'all stay healthy and y'all stay home thank you.