 The following is a presentation of TFNN trading hour with your host David White call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-445-1044 now David White. And welcome all to another exciting edition of the power trading hour with me, your humble lovable and suisably soft host. The following takes place between 2pm and 3pm. So what's happening today? Well, we got a little bit of push. Dua is not enough to push the S&P into the black. Down five on the S&P. Dow is just up 28. Nasdaq still down 10. Russell's off five. And Russell is the weakest sister of the bunch. Came down, had some decent volume in the first hour. Started pushing the market higher. Ended up not having really much of anything about 3.2 billion shares as we start the day today. Start the show. So a fairly weak volume day. So it depends on if you're bullish or bearish, you'd say it's weak volume up or weak volume down. Of course, as we go into this week with political turmoil, the first thing that you would notice would be just the absolute huge downed day that hang on a second here. Downed day that China had. Shanghai ended up down 1.8%. The Nikkei was down 1.25%. HSI was down 2.6%. So we've got a lot of weakness in Asia. Japan not so bad, down 1.25%. But the markets like Friday, they jammed them up in the last couple of minutes today. Are they going to do the same thing? Hard to tell. But certainly there aren't a lot of people diving to get into the market in the last part of at least the last couple of hours. And it kind of looks like yesterday, which is you get a little bit of buy-in at the end of the day. But it's a ghost town other than the machine selling to the machines. Very little else going on. Of course, the biggest thing is that whole market with Asia. But not something that you couldn't have kind of foretold. Let's go ahead and look at these. Trying to remember which one it was now. I will remember here in a second. Well, it's easier just to go and find it. Hang on just a second. Okay, let's just do that. Okay, ADRE. That's the emerging markets. It's one of them. It was another one I had out here. And you always know that you're going to forget something by the end of the day. And I did. Let's go over here to October. And that update there. Because I know it was in there. There it is. The Asia 50 ETF. So that is the AIA for the symbol on this. But we talked the last few days, really since last Wednesday, of just a multitude of Gartley patterns. The AIA had a three-gap play in the last run back from this $57.80. So let's go back and pull that up in the actual charts. IAI. Anyway, you had a wonderful three-gap play on the way up. The last one gapped over almost exactly the exact gap up right around the $63 range. You had a gap down on Friday, the second gap down here. And generally the thought is that in a three-gap play, as soon as you start filling one of those gaps, then the next two are open. So this also suggests that Asia should have or could have a significant weakness back down to about $59.50. On just the completion of a three-gap play. But of course, this was also a completion of a fairly large Gartley pattern in the market. And third world Latin American countries, Asia, they've all had kind of similar big, huge extended bearish butterflies. And of course, now this one comes back in underneath the July 1st X-Point. And again, that's $62.50. So a close below $62.50 would be quite significant. We're at $62.53 right now. I don't know if that's going to significantly change. We see a little bit more than you'd want to see those three gaps actually come back and filled. So again, you got a big gap out here, which I, you know, we pretty much jumped right over the first one. My guess is then we'll get into the second one where you'll find some minimal support. And then you'll be back down to $59.50 or so in this AIA. But there are a great deal of these Gartley patterns in the market. In fact, we'll go through a bunch of them today. You can give me call at 877-927-6648. You can email me at path at tfnn.com. And of course, you can always leave a message in the den. What else do we have? Oh, history is repeating. Then it's all just a little bit of history repeating. On this day in 1918, at the 11th hour on the 11th day, the 11th month of 1918, the great war ends, World War I. Of course, they didn't know to call it World War I because that was supposed to be the end of all of these. At 5 a.m. that morning, Germany, bereft of manpower, supplies faced with imminent invasion, signed an armistice agreement with the Allies in a railroad car outside. I hope I'm pronouncing that right. I hope I'm pronouncing that right. The world's first World War left 9 million soldiers dead, 21 million wounded, with Germany, Russia, Austria, Hungary, France, and Great Britain each losing a million or more lives. In addition, at least 5 million civilians died from disease, starvation, and exposure. A great deal of this was because they had a lot of doddering old fools that were like 80 years old running the war. And these guys went back to the late 1870s, 1880s, our civil war on the way war was supposed to be actually waged. And of course, by this time, industry had, you know, muvable guns, machine guns, just a horrific amount of weapons of soon to be mass destruction from mustard gas to chlorine. A whole bunch of horrible things. Anyway, the memorial for all these folks is in downtown Kansas City. If you ever go downtown by the train station, you'll look up and see it. It's there because of the second World War president, Truman, who got it built right after that. We'll be back in a minute. 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And how to make your money work for you. Details on The Tire's Den are on the front page of TFNN.com. Now and experience all the upgrades, TFNN.com, educating investors. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. And we're going to go to Max in Houston. How are you doing today, Max? I'm doing just fine, David. I have a question on UVXY, maybe more like in the mechanics of it. It appears to me that they buy the futures on a daily basis, but like today I see it being, from my perspective, being kind of disjoint from the VIX itself. Am I seeing it wrong or? Well, there's a couple of things going on. First of all, have you ever read the white paper from the CBOE on it? No, I have not. Okay. Absolutely. That's one of the things that I should do. Well, if you need a link, you can email me or anybody else at path at TFNN.com, and I'll be glad to give you a link. It's free. It's not painful. It is a lot of squiggly kind of lines that look like a Z turned sideways. There's a lot of math that underlies what this actually is. The UVXY is an ETF that supposedly tracks the VIX. It will basically decay in an entire year. If the VIX just went sideways, it would be worth nothing a year after you bought it, no matter where they started off at. So the idea though is probably one of the fallacies that a lot of people don't understand. The UVXY is based on the VIX, but it's based on the futures for the VIX. So you've got kind of a second order kind of thing going on. But let's get to the VIX first because if you don't understand the VIX, you don't understand the UVXY. The VIX is a rolling average of a 24 and 36 day average kind of an oscillator of the out of the money puts end calls in the S&P 500. So if there's any option that literally is worth anything other than the premium, then it doesn't go into it. So what the VIX actually measures is how many people think that there's a chance or that they're buying a chance that there's going to be a big move in the future. Right? So the idea is you want to buy it when the when no one thinks anything's going on. And you kind of want to sell it when everybody thinks that the market could only go lower. So it's kind of a first thing. Now you're going to be wrong a lot more than you probably will be in any other stock. I understand. So what you have to do is figure out when you're going to be in it because this is one of the things that can move 10 bucks at any price that it's at at any day. Right? So you can move. Well, it would be a handful of days, but it wouldn't be beyond the scope of reason to see it's what $17 and 60 cents wouldn't be beyond the scope of reason to think the thing could be 25 bucks. On Friday because it's done that kind of stuff before and the lower the VIX goes the bigger the boom is going to be on the other side. If you can get any kind of trend more than a couple of days down. So the idea is that you have to know that you can be as long as you say that you lost a buck on it each time you trade it. You can probably be wrong 10 times be right that the 11th time and break even. Yeah, I understand that. I was just thinking there would be probably a close connection between both of them because like the VIX is up like 5% or above that today. I'm going to go back and say it slowly. Now I understand what you told me before. I think maybe you missed it. The VIX is based on the price of out of the money puts and calls. Yes, that's right. Those are options. The UVXY is on the futures for those options. Okay. I get it now. There's a second order kind of event that cascades down to it. So at this point you cannot have a lot but you can have the decay in the futures. And of course the both the VIX and the UVXY are all about the momentum in the market. Okay. You win if you get a sudden down move. You win if there's a trend lower. You lose if the market goes sideways or it goes higher. Right? So two out of the three you lose the third time you make a mint. So you have to understand that this is swinging for the fences. And as long as you understand that you can't put a absolute ton of money into it, it's fine. Options are a way to actually have limited downside in this, but virtually unlimited upside. Yeah. The money management, I got it well. I was missing the second order part. It is. This is the futures. That's how they get this thing to move a great deal more than the VIX. Right? It's based on the futures. It's like an atomic bomb that sets off a nuclear fission bomb. Right? You've got to have the atomic bomb to give you the yield of the nuclear bomb, which is a thousand times more powerful than the atomic bomb. So you are kind of a second order kind of thing here. And the idea is just to make sure and keep your losses to a minimum. And a lot of times if you can be successful one out of five times in this thing, you can actually be very profitable on it. Everybody thinks that you ought to have a good batting average. This is one of the ones where as long as you can keep your losses low. And generally the nice thing about when the VIX is low is that these things and the options are going to be low. So to me, that's the way you can do it. If you get into a trend, you can probably chase it with the equity. But this is one that actually is a very good candidate for actually playing the options. Because again, at any one point, this thing can go and go up 50 or 100 percent. So you just have to do that. And of course, you know, when you get sideways markets that are very light, the options will contract fairly quickly. But if you get any kind of surprise in the market, that's when a lot of things start to change. Does that answer your question? Yes. Yes. Thank you. Thank you. It's a great explanation. I'm going to listen to it a couple more times just to make sure I didn't miss anything, but I do appreciate your time. And do remember this is a rolling average of a 24 and 36 day moving average between the two of the last cement date. So you're going to have some permutations and some times where you can actually buy them very cheap and times where you can buy them extremely expensive. We'll be back in a minute. The path of least resistance is David White's daily trading newsletter. And if you're looking for active trading ideas, then now's a perfect time for a 30 day free trial to this powerful daily trading advisory service. David uses his years of trading experience to offer his subscribers his trading ideas each morning in his path of least resistance newsletter. Using a combination of equity trades along with options, David keeps his subscribers up to date with all pertinent market information with intraday afternoon updates when warranted. 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This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Boeing, one of the bigger movers out here today. And we wanted to talk about this just because as I said before, if everybody's thinking about shorting a stock, probably not a good idea. Secondarily, everybody's shorted, so any kind of good news generally has a fairly big tail on it. Of course, you were down under 350 earlier in the day and just under 370 on the day. They announced that they will start renewing deliveries. But the airline companies themselves are saying that they're not going to be betting on any, that they're back actually flying probably until February or March. That being said, generally what you want to do on a stock like this is not shorted why it's in the news. But you want to short it after all the good news is in and that the people back up at the highs finally have run all the shorts out. That's generally when the folks that are in this knee deep are going to probably start selling it and you're going to find the weakness. Unless forced to, Wall Street is not going to sell a stock at a loss or sell it in a panic. They will go out and send their minions out to improve the PR on a stock till everybody how great it is. Get it back up, let everybody forget and then they'll start selling it unless there's some kind of fatal flaw with the company that's going to run a bankrupt. They are not big believers in run like hell when the enemy starts shooting. So as you look at this, there's one other thing that I suspect that I would want to see before you would short it as the question comes in. And that would be the CEO getting fired on that. You'll be able to wash a great deal of the sins out of their hair. You're going to wash that man right out of my hair. Anyway, certainly we would see that. So we don't have a lot of destruction yet in price today. Still never really went positive in the S&P just went barely positive in the Dow on this news. But again, I don't know if it's really news. To me it is all about when the planes start flying again and making money for the people that bought them until that time the meter is running on that for Boeing. And again, like I said, they're going to pump this back up. They'll sell into the highs again. And at that point, then you're going to probably see the weakness. Today we're back into the candle of the 18th of October that had 13 and a half million shares. We're up on about 8.8 million shares so far. But again, everybody piling on a stock probably means one thing. And that is that until the shorts are squeezed out, you don't want to be in it. Another kind of stock with that kind of idea is Tesla. And this is right back to where we shorted it back at the beginning of the year in the tech insider. I thought it would probably go down forever. I think we got started shorting it around, I think my first or best short was like 348 something like that. Maybe it was 350. I can't remember now. I started selling it, I think, covering our short at 240. I think I ended up covering all the way down to 220. It had one more leg down to 176.99. And then of course, this is the way that these highly leveraged stocks to reality actually trade. You do have to like it up here. There's a nice, sweet-hanging doji out here tomorrow. If you saw that thing kind of closed a little lower, you'd want to keep a close eye on the actual short interest on Tesla. When everybody, and that's why I pulled the trigger back here at the 345 or started. I think we shorted it all the way down to about 290 in the newsletter. I think we added a third and a third. But what you want to watch is that everybody gives up shorting the thing. And when the people are tired of shorting and giving away all the cash, that's generally when these things rotate back down. If you just look at the last four or five days, you had one kind of day with a little bit of volume. You squeezed a lot of people out on earnings. It's back up to its highs. They've got the story that everybody in China is going to buy one, probably untrue. And the question of whether or not they're going to be able to keep those kind of margins. I would say the chances is less than one in 100. The margins will come down from what they claim dubiously as around 20 to 25% margins when an entire industry that has scale can't get 8%. So eventually this thing will all rotate back over. They'll be back down to their 8% margins. A lot of other manufacturers are going to have cars this year. The worst thing for Tesla would be is if they can't sell them because guess what? At the end of the model year, those things will be discounted even more and put a bite into Tesla, at least here in the United States. A little problematic or more problematic in China. But my guess is that every company that's gone to China has had to leave with its tail between its legs. Tesla won't be any different. It's all about the timing that you get in this. But when you look at the price up there in the volume, say, okay, that's kind of interesting. Came down on 24.1 million shares back on the 18th of January. And you're back up into these levels with 14, 15, 6, maybe and now 6 million shares. So what you want to see is exactly what you saw back up into this high. And that is kind of like interday spikes that go nowhere and have no volume. And then you come back off the highs with significant volume. And generally the way to play these highly leveraged stocks to shorting, like Tesla and maybe like Boeing in the future is just start off with a third. And if you start seeing profits at another third and if you still see profits at another third, generally the best way to do it. See what else we have out here. We have some more emails. Okay. We were talking about Gartley patterns. As I said on Friday with Larry Pezzavento, these things are just literally everywhere. And I mean, these are not kind of like sorta good looking patterns. I mean, these things are like the best patterns that you could get. Normally you get a couple of equities that are making this pattern a day. There may be 30 or 40 of them right now. That's telling you that you've got a very extended market. Most of these C2Ds have been on very light volume. This one's the BOTZ, which is the Global Robotics and AI ETF. Could you get one more run back up to 20 to 14? You could. You got to 2185. Kind of looks like that's rolled over. We'll look at some more of these Gartley patterns before. But, you know, the very, very light volume from the C2D, if they had them, then I suspect you've probably seen a high for a while. We'll be back in a minute. These first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunity zone in St. Petersburg, Florida. 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Cash haven't been able to drive it across the goal line. But again, kind of like Volume Day, you've got the bond market closed today. The TLT does trade, though, and it's trading, I'm going to call it flat up, one-tenth of a percent. Tomorrow will be very interesting to see whether or not everybody gets right back to selling the bond market. Question about GLD and what's going on in that. And you're actually not in a bad place. I brought this up on Friday about what you're at. But I mean, if you just looked at this, took the name off the top of the chart, which is not a bad thing to do. You would find that you gapped up on about 17.5 million shares back on the 5th of August, tested with 15.5 million shares, tested it again with 15 million shares. And you're just kind of at this level of support. If you're actually looking for chart patterns that are interesting, and that is, to me, new gold, which has a fairly nice Gartley pattern with light volume from the C to D, you may get a little bit more down here. The bullish Gartley pattern says a dollar set, excuse me, target is 81 cents. Got down to 84 cents yesterday. So you may have a little bit more to go, but actually not a battle can chart. You'll probably find some more out here. I don't know if gold's going higher. All you know really is you think maybe something's going higher. But at this point, not a bad-looking pattern. You know that you don't really want to go anything past a .9 retracement. So then you got about a dime worth of risk. These are kind of patterns out here that make me think that if you want to do have a virtual non-expiring call on gold, that this is actually not a bad-looking pattern to say, hey, I'm going to put in a couple hundred bucks. And you know, if it does well, they go add another couple hundred bucks and build some small positions out of these that will have you with longer positions if gold turns around. And again, not going to be a big deal if you lose a couple hundred bucks. But new gold, not a bad-looking pattern. Maybe just a couple more cents out here, maybe tomorrow or the next day and keep an eye on it. Now, let's look at some of more of these Gartley patterns because there just are so many right now. Let's do this. Again, they're not just in individual equities, but there are some out here. The John Hackcock Opportunities Fund BTO certainly has a nice one that's right up against what should be massive resistance to go any farther in this bearish butterfly. And you were 34.77 for the target. You got to 35.24 kind of hanging up today, but you don't have a whole lot of volume. So an interesting one to take a look at. Again, whether or not there are butterflies or not, there are a great deal of different butterflies certainly in Asia. This one is kind of lightly traded, but certainly the patterns are there in both lightly traded and heavily traded ETFs of China. CHII is another one. You got up to .83. We're traceman on it and pop down today. DFE, which is the small cap dividend fund for Europe, also making a huge extension on lighter volume from the CDD. This one was taking a D target of $60.43. You got to $60.49 today and again, very light volume. We'll see what happens tomorrow. These things start pulling back and you start seeing these things gap down, which is what a lot of these have done. Kind of good indications that this is where the crack will probably start to happen in a great deal of these. You want to keep an eye on this. This one's DIM, which is the mid cap dividend fund, a little stronger on the CDD than a lot of them. DZK, which is the developed markets bull ETF. Same kind of pattern. This one did 1.2 retracement up to $70.07 with a target of $71.22. So there may be just a little bit more to the upside than that one. But there's so many of these things that have kind of given up at these levels, they're not all going to hit perfectly. The dividend dogs, ETF E-dog, again in the dividends have started roll over. I've saw several of these funds that even though the Dow hasn't really moved significantly lower, certainly the dividends have started to already roll over. E-DOG is the symbol on this one. You've got two gap downs from this 0.88% retracement in this Gartley pattern. In fact, if you don't have Tom's book, get it. But if you're looking for a good description of Gartley patterns, there's never a better time to go through the ones that I'm going to show you today to go back and look at them. This one's a little less, didn't quite get over the previous high. This is the European Financials ETF, EUFN. You would have liked it to get it a little bit higher, but it just kind of gave it up on no volume. E-WY, which is the iShares South Korea fund, E-WY. Same kind of thing as a lot of those over in Asia, which is you got back up fairly close and rolled over the last couple of days with some decent gap downs. So tomorrow a lot of these things are one you want to see if we get a little bit more of continuation or if these things are really starting to roll in advance of the rest of the market. The first Germany Alpha DEX index fund FGM did 1.23 retracement of the X to A. You wanted a target of 43-49, got to 43-29. A little bit of a gap up, but this one's not a huge trader. You want to see the trend, but it looks to me like it wants to pop down to about 42.5. You gap down tomorrow on that. I think that's going to tell you a great deal about what the rest of the world's doing. FINU, which is the ultra-pro financial select sector, also doing a 1.39% retracement. The target for a bearish butterfly was 101.74. You got to 104.89. You're back down today at 102.34. Close back below 174. It gave you a pretty good indication that that run from the October 3rd low is over. We'll be back to wrap up the show. One more segment left. You can give me call it 877-927-6648. David White's newsletter, The Technology Insider, is focused like a laser on finding the next big things in technology. If you had invested only $10,000 in Microsoft in 1986, you'd have been a millionaire by 2000. Disruptive technology like Microsoft's is the key to these massive long-term profits, and The Tech Insider is the vehicle from TFNN to capitalize on these opportunities. It's the go-to newsletter that identifies, monitors, and profits on mostly little-known cutting-edge companies with great long-term prospects. David's experience is as an inventor of Emmy-winning animation products for TV and Hollywood that propelled a company public. 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Catch Tom O'Brien, professional trader and educator, founder of TFNN, also a special guest on CNBC. Tom will bisect and dissect the markets. The Tom O'Brien Show, next on TFNN. DNE, which is the emerging market's large company index, gave a pretty good signal. It's below its X-point, which is a pretty good indication this thing has failed. Energy wasn't that bad in the seat of the D, but you have two gaps lower on this already. You're probably looking for a third gap lower in the next couple of days. You get two, about 80% of the time you're going to get three. Asia Pacific X Japan, FPA, also had a fairly decent cartley pattern. The D target was $28.91. You got to $28.96 and a huge gap down today. It doesn't really matter what these are in, mostly in, like I said, the third world, some of the other big runs in the market. You've got some fairly decent moves higher. Information technology, ETF, the FTEC has gotten to 1.39. I've got a little push more up here today on very light volume. Whole market's only doing about 3.6 billion shares. So tomorrow is going to be very important whether or not we've started kind of a new trend over the last couple of days with all these ETFs gapping lower. The iShares China large cap ETF FX. I, same kind of pattern, got up to 88% retracement. Your target was $42.66. You got to $43.27. Two gap down looking for a third would take you back down to about 41 on the FXI. What else do we have here? Not enough time. Let's check back in, just take a quick look. Yeah, volume 3.6 billion shares, so pretty light. What do we have? S&P still not able to push into the positive, down six and a half. NASDAQ still off 11 and a half. Brussels still the week, sister off 3.10%. In the meantime, sell when you can, not when you have to. We will see you here tomorrow. Same fat channel, same fat time.