 Okay, we're back folks, and I believe we have Stan Harley, the Harley stock market lender on the line. Stan, are you there? Good morning, Larry. How are you doing? Good morning, my friend. Well, you're getting ready for November the 3rd. I have you scheduled for November 4th, but we had to have you on a week early because you've been giving us some really good information, and the folks wanted to get your opinion because you've been bearish and the market's been down since you said it would top around October the 11th, and we're going to put you on the spot two ways today. A, who's going to be elected, and B, where's the market going? Other than that, we don't have anything. Yeah, historically, the market tends to foretell who wins the election with a pretty good reliable consistency. If the market is measured by the S&P for about two to three months prior to the election is up, that tends to favor the incumbent party. On the other hand, if the market is down, that tends to favor the challenger. So as one can see, the market has certainly been lower here compared to where it was a couple of months ago. But let's talk about the market action and what I see developing. With you on the air here, I've been espousing the theory that we would probably hold up into the election time period. I've changed my views on that. I'm of the opinion now that we probably have the market top in the rearview mirror. And I have a number of reasons why I believe that's the case. I've got the four charts we brought here today. The first one is a weekly chart of the S&P 500 cash index going back to the 2002 time period. And what I've done here is I've drawn a large vertical line right at the March 2009 bottom. That was a major, major bottom on March the 6th. And counting both to the left and to the right of that date, Fibonacci and Lucas numbers, I found that all of the porting lows can be defined by those numbers. For example, if we go to the left in time from that March 2009 bottom, it lines up with 322 Lucas weeks with the October 2002 bottom. And if we go to the right in time, 144 weeks that lines up with the October 2011 low. If we go to the right in time, 377 weeks that lines up with the February 2016 low. And I put these numbers below into a spreadsheet, done what's called a regression analysis so that if you find the best mathematical fit, these numbers fall out very, very nicely. And then last but not least, if we go to the right in time, the next Fibonacci number in the sequence, which is 610, it lines up beautifully with the September 2nd high of this year. And then down below with the spreadsheet, you can see when I've crunched it, excuse me, when I crunched the numbers, it comes out to be 609.82 rounded off to 610. What is all this mean, Larry? We've got a phenomenal, phenomenal Fibonacci, Lucas setup for all of the major lows and then right into the September 2nd, 2020 high with Fibonacci relationships. It doesn't get any better than this. The next slide I brought is something that I've talked with you a little bit on the air, but I haven't really showed it in chart form until until today. This is a cycle I've tracked for many years. It averages seven years. The regression analysis has a cycle computed at 82 months, which is just two months shy being exactly seven years. But this has been the dominant cycle for the last 20, 30 years. The four year cycle was very dominant throughout the 1960s through about 2002. But then the seven year cycle has sort of evolved to become more dominant, certainly in recent times. And what I've done here is I've got the price chart on the top. And I've shown the major bottoms. And then with the little triangles at the bottom of the chart, that's what the regression analysis has done to compute the idealized cycle point. And then you can see very easily that that lines up exceptionally well with the actual lows. The next low in the series should the pattern continue based on the regression modeling is December 2022. And the standard deviation on that analysis is about seven and a half months. So what does that tell us? The next low should the pattern continue in this seven year cycle should occur in the vicinity of December 2022, a little over two years from now with the standard deviation, as I said, about seven months. And I actually think it's probably going to come in December of 2022 over two years from right now. Of course, before you make a low, you have to make a high. And that brings us to the next chart here. And this is kind of a busy chart when it comes up on the screen. But what I've done is I've looked at the last four seven year cycle tops, not the bottoms, which was the prior chart, but these are the tops. And Larry, we have an interesting pattern that can tell us a lot about how tops occur. Tops are different from bottoms. Bottoms tend to be one and done. They tend to be a V shaped occurrence. You tend to get a spike low and that's it. Sometimes there's a retest. Sometimes more often than not, there isn't. But tops are very different. They tend to be protracted evolutionary processes that span many, many months. So what I've done here for the last four seven year cycle tops, I've shown the evolution of what I call the big five indices. For me, the big five are the Dow Jones industrials, the Dow Jones transports, the Nasdaq composite, S&P 500, and the New York composite. And I track all five of those. And what I found is, as the top is being formed, fewer and fewer components among this big five tend to top out. So very early on, say, for example, at the top in the 1999 to 2000 topping process, very early on, we saw the Dow Jones transports top out in May of 1999. Then in January of 2000, the Dow industrials topped. Then in March, first the Nas top, then the S&P, and then last but not least, the New York composite top. And that was the final topping component. And that completed the topping structure. And then from that point, the market headed south. I've also shown the same pattern for 2007 to 2008. I showed it for the 2015 to 2016 topping evolution. And then at the very bottom is the current market environment. In January of this year, the first component among the big five to top out was the New York composite. Then on February the 12th this year, the Dow industrials topped. On September the 2nd, the S&P and the Nas peaked out. And the last component to peak out was the Dow transports a week ago. So one can see we tend to get a thinning in the advance. We get fewer and fewer components among the big five, making new all-time highs. And then when the final one peaks, that's it. The top is essentially complete. What is also very interesting is the Dow transports seem to be a pivotal component. They are either the first or the last to top out in every occurrence. And I don't know why that is. It just is. And back in 2000, 99, 2000, transports were the first. In 2011, 2008, 2008 were the last. Hey, Stan, stay with us, buddy. We've got one more section to go. 877-927-6648. Okay, we're back, folks. We're talking with Stan Harley, the Harley stock market letter. Stan, you've got a really interesting similarity here between 1929 and 2020. You want to explain to the folks what you're looking at here? Absolutely, Larry. I find this very interesting indeed. Back 100 years ago, the general proxy for the stock market was the Dow Jones industrials. When most people refer to what is the market doing, well, one often referred to the Dow industrials. Well, in recent years, that's kind of changed. And now most people, certainly professional money managers and most of us who watch this program, to us, the market is the S&P 500. And that's what most professional money managers look to is the S&P. And every morning we get up, we want to see what the S&P futures are doing. But I found this absolutely fascinating. I've got two charts of the market on the left as measured by the Dow back in 1929. And on the right is measured by the S&P 500 through the present. Take note of the date that the market topped in 1929, September the 3rd, 1929. The market then sold off for about two months and then it popped up and it made a right shoulder on October 11th, 1929. And then it continued to sell off fairly sharply in the mid-November. All right, let's look at the 2020 chart. Where did the market top, the market now, the S&P 500, the market peaked on September the 2nd, sold off for a couple of months, came up and made a right shoulder on October the 12th. Isn't that interesting? Wow, that is incredible similarity, isn't it? Is that just cute? I mean, 1929 and 2020, both the tops and the right shoulders are within one day of each other. That's on the calendar. That's just too cute. I find that fascinating. Well, if that's the case, then we should bottom around November the 13th, then, if that's going to be, if they're retain that similarity, aren't they? Well, we shall see, yes. This is true, said the blind man, yes. And positions work for a while and then they don't work right when you expect them to. But certainly, if we continue to follow the pattern, essentially day for day, you're right, that would suggest a mid-November bottom. Do you have anything on your shorter term? I know you don't have a chart for it, but do you have anything that's looking like mid-November might be some type of a low? You got any counts out there that might be? I'm going to refrain from that for right now. I'm inclined to believe we're probably going to be down into year end, but yeah, we'll talk about that in the weeks that come. Okay. Well, that's great. I mean, this chart itself pays the admission. I mean, this is incredible similarity. My gosh, you can't fool that. In fact, we were watching that area in the S&P because it was at a 78% retracement up there. And that was really one of the areas that we look at with a really nice ABCD pattern. So this tells, and this market has not given us any indication that it wants the bottom yet. So this is really great information, Stan. Thank you very much. Can you tell the folks how they can reach you if they'd like to subscribe to your letter? Oh, they can. I have a website, harleymarketletter.com. Okay. All right. Listen, thanks for joining us, my friend. We'll have you in November some time, hopefully in a couple of weeks. And if we're still around, if there's no revolution, maybe we'll have another show with you, okay? And stay safe, my friend. We're in the age bracket where we got to watch where these young people are running around. So stay safe. Absolutely. Okay. Thank you very much, Stan, for joining. We really do appreciate it. It's a great show, too. This is super information. It's my pleasure. Okay.