 Okay, very good morning, Wednesday the 12th of February, having a look at what we've got on the agenda for this morning, a little bit of a catch up on Jerome Powell, a look at a pop in the Kiwi Dollar overnight, and the reasons behind that. We've got oil infertories which came out from the API yesterday evening, update on the coronavirus and also the primary zone going in the US at the moment. But before I get into Jerome Powell, what he said yesterday and the process for today in front of the Senate. Let's just have a look at the charts at the open and things are relatively quiet. I don't think it's going to take me a great deal of time to really get through my side of things, so I'll hand over swiftly to Sam. But a fairly muted open, despite the oil inventory data last night which we're going to look at, oil prices just continuing to edge higher, just above the high of yesterday's session. It's up about 83 cents down here at the bottom, trading at $50.77 an hour. Gold and T-notes a little bit negative. Gold down about three bucks, the 10-year down 10 ticks, and it does come with US stock futures in moderate positive territory. That backs up about 16, the US stocks also trading a little higher this morning. A couple of European earnings reports, Heineken up about 2.5%, carrying up 2.5%, generally smaller type stocks, nothing from a top table index waiting point of view for the respective indices. Sinoffy just down a touch about 0.6%. Otherwise, yeah, pretty quiet. Let's just get straight into the headlines. I guess to start with, what did Jerome Powell say yesterday? Nothing surprising. As we were discussing in the briefing yesterday, we weren't expecting much. That was pretty much the case. He told Congress, so the House yesterday that the US economy is in a good place, even as citing the potential threat from the virus in China and concerns about the economy's long-term health. So you can pretty much expect a repeat of this in the Senate. The questions as well, I don't know if you did tune in or not, but the questioning from politicians goes on for several hours, and it is quite a tedious thing to watch as a trader. And from a risk point of view, it's fairly minimal. Someone of Powell's experience now, unlikely that he's going to make too many mistakes, if any at all. So I wouldn't be looking for his speech this afternoon to be a real catalyst in that respect. But certainly when the initial comments come out, the way it normally works is Bloomberg will snap the comments and say the comments are a repeat of the speech that was delivered yesterday. As long as that remains the case, then it will be a larger than non-event. The one thing that did move markets overnight was the New Zealand Central Bank, the RBNZ. They left rates unchanged and signalled. It won't need to cut them further unless the coronavirus outbreak has a bigger than expected impact on their economy. And then we just quickly switch over then my chart to the Kiwi. And you can see here quite an aggressive pop seen in the currency overnight. Usually in sympathy that Aussie would take a bit of a bid, but that move far more tame. But nonetheless, Aussie also trading side positive territory, but the outperformance seen in the Kiwi overnight. You can see here from a technical point of view, finding a bit of resistance around the highs that were seen going back to around the sixth of this month. And that was the kind of top side of the range as well that we were holding towards the back end of Jan and the beginning of February. So a hawkish outcome to that causing a sharp appreciation in the local currency overnight, which I'm sure Sam will talk about more technically in a moment. From all of the three points of view, well, before I get into the numbers, let's just have a quick look at the charts. This is WTI crude here at the moment. That data comes out and just looking at where we were, you can see really quite minimal initial reaction. But thereafter, we started to just grind up during the Asia Pacific session. Now, one thing I would like to say with oil ticking up and with the asset class mix showing relatively stable kind of sentiment at the moment, Shanghai and Hong Kong did outperform in the local stock markets overnight. China's Hubei province, which is the main focal point of the epicenter of the outbreak of the virus in China, actually reported the lowest number of new virus cases this month. And obviously that gets a lot of people a little bit more positive about potentially if we hit peak virus, trying to ascertain that date, though is almost impossible. But nonetheless, the local indices did outperform in overnight session. That's probably explaining what's helped this moderate risk appetite in the morning. Because from an oil perspective, the actual numbers that came out last night are pretty bearish. Actually, the headline build in the API's last night was of 6 million. That was double expectations. Cushing was a build of 1.3 million, slightly smaller build than anticipated. But gasoline, larger 1.1 million distillates a draw of 2.3 million. But overall, this infantry situation is not having too much of a lasting impact on prices beyond the initial kind of flutter on the release. And just switching this oil chart over to the longer one that we've been looking at for a while, it's just interesting to see this consolidation at the moment. It's almost like oil traders are a bit undecided themselves, weighing up and balancing act between our OPEC serious. Are they going to act? And if they do so, is that going to be enough to counteract then this ongoing impact on the global economy and particularly demand and consumption from China, the world's biggest importer? And so you would think then the way that this is going, that at some point it's going to have to make its mind up, the actual kind of price movement on these daily candlesticks is getting somewhat progressively smaller. So it's definitely still something to watch. And that subject matter I was talking about in beginning the week on Libya, I think really too much there materialising at this point in time, but obviously another key thing to look out for if you are trading the oil market. So all of this comes ahead of the DOEs, we'll get those usual time, 3.30 London times and 9.30 in the morning in Chicago. One of the other headlines people have looked at is another one of the Caucasus, so Bernie Sanders, narrow win in New Hampshire, makes him the undisputed leader of the Democrats left kind of division of that political party if you like. The more moderate, Pete Boudier finished second and Klu Busher vaults to third, above then Warren and Biden is just trailing at the moment, pretty much out of the picture. So again, not that this has an immediate reaction in short term prices that we're looking at, but it's something which is generating quite a lot of media interest at the moment. So just keeping you up to speed. A quick look at the calendar. What have we got today? It is pretty quiet. Now that that Kiwi decision is out of the way for this morning, we're looking out for the industrial production numbers coming out of the Eurozone at 10 o'clock. And then that's pretty much it in terms of data is concerned because in the afternoon it's just oil inventories. They do have here on the calendar with no set time, the monthly OPEC oil report. Definitely something to keep an eye on if you are trading WTI crude futures. Usually that will come out around the midday, but keeping it out on the squawk, they will clarify the timings as and when they have more detail. The speakers side of things. As I said, Jerome Powell, who will start speaking, testifying before the Senate banking committee at three o'clock, is likely to be a pretty dull affair. Not expecting any real reaction on the back of that. So perhaps usual state of play, barring anything unexpected, perhaps a fairly quiet morning, people still kind of factoring in whether or not the virus is still contained at this point. Obviously, a fairly, as I mentioned, positive reaction seen overnight given the fairly stable numbers reported in that province in China specifically. All right, that is it from me. As I said, short and sweet this time. So let me hand you over to Sam and he can talk over the charts and what he's looking at this morning. Thanks guys. Yeah, good morning guys. We'll have a quick look over the market system to begin obviously 17 minutes into European trade on that open to seeing the bunds just print a new low worth keeping a watch on that I guess as we're just coming into levels that we were trading at back on the sixth there. So just worth keeping a watch on that a couple of opportunities this morning for those that traded it on the S1 works very well as a level of resistance and we have since then pushed down you got gold just move in lower not catastrophically of course, but a couple of safe havens just on the lows and while the DAX has been pushing higher in early trade is just perhaps starting to continue that now worth keeping a watch on all of that as it goes on. But let's have a quick look at the DAX there because we were talking literally this time yesterday in the briefing I'm just going to take off the pivots about what happens if it hits that all time higher we're going to get a continuation through or is it going to break down and if I just put this now on so the 15 minute you can see we actually didn't quite make it initially when we were talking then we did break through got a bit of a classic nice push for 20 or so points and then actually that previous all-time high offered a level as a resistance once it broke back through we are now above it and of course now keep a watch on that other double top that we've had on the all-time highs for the DAX yesterday for the S&P and it's going to put the pivots on here you know it's worth I guess I was looking back at yesterday with Jerome Powell speaking of course Donald Trump came out and and had a go at him you said when Jerome Powell started speaking the Dow was up 125 and then when he finished it was down 15 and started having a go at Europe and all of this kind of stuff as we would expect but just worth maybe thinking about that is as per our start speaking later on are we going to see something similar where we just drift down and it's into the Europe end of the US trade that we start to push higher you can see 33 53 the previous pie that we had on Monday evening offered a good level of support and we pushed higher since then it was at 12 or so points opportunity wise you know I can go through this later on as we get closer to the time but there's still a fair few levels just below those lows where I would be looking at is that going to be the the low of the well obviously we haven't reached that today but 33 53 is that enough of a base to be confident about pushing higher I think if Jerome Powell wasn't speaking I'd say yes to be honest just have a quick look at maybe a trend line on that we can see that's been nicely respected so there's your line in the sand albeit diagonally that you want to have on break of that fine we can just drift down lower and maybe wait for Jerome Powell to finish speaking and look to to get long again to the upside continuations say we're getting squeezed in a touch no amazing trend lines in play as of yet it might be when the volume comes back in you're looking for a break of that and then 33 68 that kind of area for a further push now just lagging behind it a bit you know I was looking at this yesterday although we did come back down to that similar area you can see what was the the high that we had back on Monday we then obviously found support Monday evening and that was the low last night as well however trend line wise a bit choppier a bit more choppy on the down that's actually the other side of it now and not expecting fireworks in the morning but all things considered maybe the back end of the day is when I would favor to look to get long so have a look at the currencies euro nice little bounce this morning we're almost at the the high of the day which is basically where we open so actually still lower on the day but quite nice to see the bulls just having a little go at defending this it'd be interesting to see if we can form a trend line on here it's got 15 10 minutes to see where this closes but if we can maybe get that false break of all these highs and this trend line that could well be the point where we find a bit of resistance and drift lower however that breaks through and certainly with the reaction you saw yesterday could be an opportunity for those bulls to get in I know a few people certainly on on Twitter I follow we're looking at opportunities to get long this year let's put it on that weekly chart and to remove those pivots because of course you know we're we're talking about if we can break through all of this you can see false break of this week so far but if we can confirm that macrons gap looks like it's a formality back down the 108 area so definitely keep a watch on that but saying that if we can have a bounce here it could be that you know you're talking a decent recovery the we started to potentially see that yesterday in the pound we obviously came down to these lows little false break and now from that area we're quite significantly above almost 100 pips above there for the pound so looking at this more intraday where levels that you want to be aware of this to get those pivots on for a bit of a sense of days and and those the high well I mean this area here call it you know 130 if you want a bit of a zone but for me it's all about these lows that we had previously back in January you can see every time we came here the bulls just decided to to you know continue their recovery even when we got closes below it's a very strong level once we you know finally did move low it as actors resistance so keep a watch on this the R1 the 130 the 129 91 give or take a couple of pips either way that's for me is is a pretty key level and if you're you're bullish on the pound yes you'd be late to the party but better to be be late than early as they say and getting in above here I might see a further recovery for the pound and it liked the data overall yesterday I don't necessarily think you know it means too much in the grand scheme of things but we continue to push higher albeit with a you know nice bit of dollar weakness after the euro recovered from that multi-month low but certainly keep a watch on this level for for the panel looks quite interesting Aussie got a nice little boost in early trade from the Kiwi so keep a watch on that that's right on the the high that we had from overnight and yesterday key level I know people again talk about this market recovering quite nicely and if risk and oil etc push on well the Aussie's got to do so as well so have a quick look over at the yen as I did mention safe havens were just drifting lower and that's confirmed here by the yen just on the low of yesterday basically the S1 low of today quite a key level you have to say with a lot of support around here I know we're not got a trend line in play as of yet but that low that we had from the end the January the beginning of the year keep a watch on that because if that goes in you might get a further continuation lower for that and then obviously be targeting these low levels from May last year even probably worth getting a trend line on that as well but for that to happen you would want stocks to continue pushing on in Europe at the moment let's have a look at the last sort of few minutes it's not going just yet although on the next potentially just getting squeezed both ways so keep a keep a nice to see how we go there but safe havens just drifting lower whether that continues or not into the morning we have to wait and see oil last one to go through with gold yes did just push higher in early trade you're going to have a you know a big battle really aren't we for for this market I guess if you're bullish you're happy that the move lower hasn't happened yet looks awfully like the pound there doesn't it the amount of lows that come in and we actually keep pushing higher and higher let's have a look to see if we've got anything trend line wise that you really want to see broken doesn't you know is this it's going to be choppy DOE later as well so you know time will tell whether that can break through I would say right now I'm more confident that we've seen the low for a bit they're not but if DOE comes in and it's a lot more bearish well there's only one way this goes and and as we've said before OPEC will be the the main party at play for the direction of this move gold talked early on is just drifting lower so keep a watch on that sorry um perhaps just developing a bit of a trend line there from that low from the fifth that we have had squeezing from the top and you know I don't think it's the worst thing in the world just to wait and see what happens for gold because of course it's still early doors but that trend line nicely respected one two three times today so the way gold can move if the volume comes in break of that trend yesterday's low low the seventh as as targets to consider really bit of a line in the sand for the balls and the bears at 15 69.4 low the morning then the higher once we broke through that as well hope you all have good trading days for the moment I think stocks look like they just want to have a bit of a push but keep an eye on those so-payments which are approaching a bit of support relatively quiet keep an eye out for for pow and his testimony on the impact that he had yesterday on stocks and once he finished we pushed higher and of course crude as well at 330 could be quite interesting I hope you all have good trading days and I'll catch you all in the chat later on