 Okay, good morning. Happy Friday 12th of March going to get up to speed everything that's going on and Definitely this morning after we had the Dowl scale a record high for the fourth straight session The S&P future touched on it's all-time high and the NASDAQ is now less than 5% below its Feb 12 peak after slumping over 10% to confirm a correction at the beginning of the week that recovery kind of movement is just coming under a little bit of pressure this morning and I think the rationale behind that generally has been that Biden has now signed in to law in the US that 1.9 trillion dollar stimulus bill yesterday the jobless claim is printed at 712,000 that was for the first week of March and the lowest reading since the first week of November so a multi-month best performance for that figure and In terms of the 30-year auction which rounded off that hundred and twenty billion dollars worth of US issuance this week It was relatively lackluster, but again far from a disaster from the seven year. We saw two weeks ago So all in all that's what helped really Continue the more positive finish to yesterday. The S&P was up about percent. The Dow was up point six than NASDAQ Coming back obviously was forced was up 2.4 percent However, as we come into this morning session in Europe, there hasn't really been anything new I think in news but as I cycle through these charts, there's definitely some technical levels on the upside Plus as well overall I think then a little bit of a fatigue to the positive move that's occurred of the last three sessions Just because now that news is very much baked in at the strategically key levels like for example in the S&P We pushed up to the all-time high Literally had a test to the tick as you can see here of the high We had on the 16th of February and then good reason to take some profit I think at this point I don't think there's enough new information here on the table now for us to just break in above and Push on without something new developing So I think a good place here to book some profit and then across the board. We're kind of seeing a similar type of move where The dollar is up about a third of 1% this morning It's pretty much reversed all of the downward move the Dixie saw yesterday afternoon and yields are picking up So as you can see here down on the bottom Right the 10 years come under a little bit of pressure here as Europe has stepped in and Technically short-term just breaking below the support area from Wednesday night session Thursday session and so technically that breaking down and having a rundown to Wednesday's low before finding a bit of support as well So with dollar strength as you would imagine then Commodity markets under a bit of pressure here just keeping an eye on spot gold and silver under some continuous pressure gold having Made a bit of an about turn yesterday as yields did start to see a bit of a turn and Technically speaking yesterday was a nice respect to the previous highs We're seeing back on the 2nd of March that also lined up with one of the respected pivot levels at the time and Then the markets just come under continuous pressure here and as we come down at session lows now We're speaking down 15 bucks at 1706 and a half You've got those lows in sight now that we saw back on Wednesday's session Seen at 1705 spots 6 and as you can see that had some Previous significance going back to these previous price points in the first week of March as well as a retest on the 5th And on the 9th as well So definitely worth keeping an eye on that the s2 residing on the daily pivots just below at 1704 Oil as well just just softening a touch I think to pronounced here I must admit and we have technically just got beneath then these previous areas of Resistance yesterday morning and a rejection and bounce off support in the Asia pack session that now as you can see has found a bit of a An area of resistance now as the price tried to come back up through pivot here more recently And it's just just slipped beneath there now at 65 55 So we're just keeping an eye there as well if the dollar continues to remain well bid given some of the upward moves seen over the last 24 hours or so Yours I think really a quite key as I said there's not been any real new news catalyst here I think it's just a bit of fatigue to the overall move that we had seen obviously this week We've had the inflation figures come out That was really quite a significant turning point because everyone leaning on the highest side of inflation Expectations and that core reading for US CPI of course coming in a little bit soft Is what helped that pull back in the yields, but now that's kind of fading if you like And definitely quite keen to keep an iron yields as the trigger for any subsequent movement across the other markets As you can see here as the 10 year does come under a bit of pressure This kind of area here at 30 203 is going to be quite key to watch That being then Tuesday's low and the upside range high of the Price activity on Monday, which is when on Monday You remember things were still in quite a negative mindset It's really early from Tuesday onwards that the markets put in this kind of recovery move that we've had of late so yeah really important I think for today all about the general notion of You know can the market hold on or is there a bit of a force core to come back for the yield narrative? and that Could potentially destabilize markets short-term intraday given the fact that you know things like equity markets are particularly Elevated given the recovery that we've had Just having a look at the Nasdaq here On a daily chart on a 30-minute chart Excuse me and you can see just how far we've come in a short space of time This was Friday's low, you know Friday's low to the peak that we had Yesterday evening in US trade. We're talking about nearly an 8% move. So a bit of a pullback here I don't think it's too untoward given the extremity of of that So it definitely will be will be interesting to watch And yeah, the other thing I just wanted to mention which I forgot with the technicals here in gold As I said that 17 05 and a half is quite a key area for that horizontal line of support and resistance over the over the March Month that is also the 50% fib retracement of the low from Monday to the peak that we had yesterday Comes in exactly to the tick with that low seen on Wednesday So quite strategically key level there for gold on support side To watch going forward But let's just have a quick run through the news then a few things I did want to update you on and The first is what is I think the third ECB source comment that we've had it's been quite incredible now and You know ECB source comments to give anyone new to markets a bit of context What a source is It isn't a rumor that they're quite clearly different a source is an informed kind of contact With the ear of the governing council at the ECB of which major financial news services like Bloomberg or Reuters talk to and Get inside information about what the ECB could be thinking or what they might do a future monetary policy Now this isn't like a leak or anything like that far from it This is usually intentional on the side of the central bank in order to use a backdoor route in order to communicate Potential ideas or policy changes to the market without explicitly going on the record saying it so it's a mutually kind of beneficial relationship, so that used to happen if there was a particularly kind of Indecisive market expectation going into a meeting Sometimes sources would be deployed in order to kind of tip the balance one way or the other Because central banks don't really like to surprise the market and create market volatility They'd rather the market have a pretty good idea of what's going to happen to control that However, what's been happening and particularly under the reign of Christine Lagarde? For whatever reason, I'm sure people can speculate but source comments have been coming out not just before or after but during the actual ECB press conference and we had that exact case yesterday. There were two on the day We've had another one or third one that came late in the evening and this was it It said that most policymakers have no intention of expanding the 1.85 trillion euro Pandemic emergency purchase program the PEP despite the pledge on Thursday to step up the pace of bond buying to keep yields in check And remember the big comment really yesterday. I thought the guard actually did an okay job managing things And the biggest move came actually in the most surprising Point which was the first half of the actual announcement the actual statement Typically people were looking for the press conference for direction But in the statement they made this highlighted point here as I've kind of Shown you based on joint assessment of financing conditions and the inflation outlook The governing council expects purchases under the PEP over the next quarter to be conducted in a significantly higher pace Than during the first months of the year and this was particularly important It was seen at a time as quite dovish Although the markets did you know reverse that there were other things to be aware of but this was probably the real take-home Point and this comes then in the context of obviously yields having risen And what is the ECB threshold? How active are they going to be? The things looking forward to be aware of is that every Monday We get a PEP definitive update from the ECB about the level of purchases being made One thing to be clear of what she said yesterday was that don't look for monday's number to be, you know, particularly big or shocking because The inaction of the decision yesterday only came in to into fruition Yesterday and into today and so that data is not going to show up until at the earliest 22nd of march anyway So the other thing here with this source comment To to kind of wrap this discussion up is that here they're talking about The idea that most policy makers have no intention of expanding the current 1.8 trillion envelope And remember no one's expecting that at this point in time You know, there's many different things to happen before that discussion would ever be a talking point Such as are they going to use to form availability of that envelope? The pace of which is increasing generally economists wrote the view that it might Create a necessity when yield spike in order to accelerate But they're going to use then market forces to determine the pace of it Hence the reason why she couldn't pre-commit when asked about what is the specific number you have in mind? Well, there is no specific number when you're responding to market conditions, right? And then that being then that economists anticipating a rollover of the length of which the pep is in play Going from march 2022 out into the summer. Basically, they've not said that yet But that's the general expectation not then increasing the upper limit of the overall 1.85 trillion So I didn't really think this source comment has has much significance to be quite frank The other thing then to talk about is Covid vaccines and I'll give you a bit of an overall update just with covid in general But the vaccine stuff let's start there at the moment And this was you know, this is kind of the the area that's really coming to the forefront at the moment That's european's vaccination push was being dealt another severe blow When brussels warned supplies from AstraZeneca threatened to fall short in the first quarter and hopes have faded as well That the u.s. Would provide extra jabs now the u.s. Being one of which They've ordered well in excess of probably the amount of vaccines that they need in order to cover themselves I guess spreading across different orders from different Manufacturers in order to then offset any supply issues They've talked about Biden strategy. Basically. Look, let's get everyone administered in the u.s. First before we start helping other people um, the the problem here then is AstraZeneca originally offered to ship at least 100 million doses of the oxford astra vaccine to the eu by the end of march Now this was that story that really Came up in january earlier this year and brought up the friction and obviously comes post brexit between the uk and britain and and the eu Astra's ceo subsequently agreed then to a revised target of 40 million doses in the first quarter I think the original target was 100 million. So it's already been slashed by more than half And now he's saying basically that the commission or europe is saying the commission now believes the company is on track To miss even that target So it's gone lower and lower and lower Meanwhile, johnson and johnson single shot covet 19 one approval their vaccine yesterday from the eu medical regulator um The problem you have there though is this this jj drug isn't available yet or vaccine The drug makers had problems with its production capacity Uh and has been unable to confirm how many doses it will ship to the eu next month Or when that will happen full stop According to people familiar with the matter so Not a good situation really for europe and and the reason why I kind of say that is because this is looking at the daily new covet 19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people And the one thing that we saw quite clearly switch at the beginning of this month Was that after the big acceleration in the uk to hit that mid february? Kind of timeline to then unveil the roadmap and so on The uk's kind of flattened out a little bit, but america continues to increase so us Now the kind of leader on that front Big gap of course between then second place uk on this selection of countries to then mainland europe And they have been moving in the right direction things have been picking up but if you think about it the context is quite key because Covid cases in the lives of italy and france are picking up at the moment and you can see here In both countries they're about at the highest levels definitely in the case of italy that they've been so far this year And That's not heading in the right direction And now we're hitting these kind of speed bumps in some of these vaccinations although europe more probably heavily tilted towards drugs like Pfizer Moderna as we say jane j but the timing of that is uncertain The astral one is another blow for sure. So interesting to see How all this is playing out at the moment and Again playing into that potential divergence of timing of exiting on the on the roadmap for the u.s And the uk compared to a lot of major nations in europe Okay, quick look at the calendar. We have had uk gdp come out Just really not that important. I don't think because this gdp data is is dated and it's looking at you know A period we already know of uk contraction You know, what's important now for uk investors really is about the outlook and The continuation of the speedy vaccination rollout program Accompanying then the deadlines being met for the reopening on the roadmap Teared system that the uk government has outlaid So I don't think backward looking looking at the fact that you know, if you're looking at gdp in the uk uk gdp estimate year and year minus 9.2 percent So touch better than contraction of 10.9 percent expected On the month-to-month gdp reading is minus 2.9 percent versus expected minus 4.9 Again, I don't I don't think that really has much But much interest generally so moving on then What else have we got throughout the morning? We've got some inflation numbers coming out from the likes of spain, but these are final readings The euro industrial production rarely has much of a market impact. So really we look to the us afternoon where you've got ppi Now the ppi perhaps could have been a little of a little bit of interest At the beginning of the week, obviously the cpi generally the market rightly or wrongly tends to pin a lot of its focus on that figure despite the federal reserves more Kind of alignment with things like core pce the the market still is quite reactant to that Consumer price index figure that this week came in obviously a little bit soft and unexpected and actually out promoted quite a meaningfully Good response in markets. So now that is another key reason for what's added to that midweek positivity Was that people were getting you know the underpinning a lot of that yield? Scare has been increasing inflation expectations And so that number softened that a little bit and that's what's helped get equities up to these Reelevated levels at record highs in the s&p and the doubt um, so the difference here now is that context because the ppi's I don't think are going to have as big a bang for their buck because ultimately Um, the cpi has has kind of diminished that a little bit. So I'd definitely be looking out for these at 130 I don't think You know an inline reading would be perceived in the same way as what the general data was like on wednesdays When i'm trying to say those those kind of runaway expectations of inflation have receded a little bit for these data points Otherwise some CAD jobs data at 130 as well And then you've got university in michigan the the march preliminary figure at three o'clock And that's pretty much it no major central bank speakers Otherwise the fed obviously in the blackout period will have the fmc meeting Next week So that is it. So at the moment equity softening up a little bit I think that's a byproduct of some profit taking a sharp run up higher that we've had through the middle of the week Um, there hasn't been any new fundamental news headlines that catalyst to promote this So as I said, I think just a bit of a pullback on those Fairly quick run up higher in the equity market the yields have started picking up and in tandem with that then means that dollar starts Increasing in strength which weighs on the major pairs and the precious metal space So the trigger point to watch throughout the rest of the session is is yields The u.s 10 years at quite a key level on the downside at the moment of 132 03 That's it. So the new market watch podcast coming out usual time A bit later on late morning and around 10 11 o'clock. Do check that out I'll be joined by head of trading peers and we'll all kind of go over the entire week and our thoughts for the week ahead Otherwise, have a good session ahead I'll see you in the amplifier live discord room If you're not part of the community check out the link below and have a great weekend. Thanks very much