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A lot of data this week, very stacked. We do have the Federal Reserve meeting, so the FOMC meeting is on Wednesday. It's obviously going to be the biggest event of the week, but we have a lot of other data as well. So some ones worth noting here, Tuesday I would just watch the consumer confidence. The others, not so much. I haven't really seen them move the market like that. Wednesday we want to watch the S&P US manufacturing PMIs, the Joel's job openings, the ISM manufacturing, and then of course at 2pm we do have the Federal Reserve decision on interest rates and also the press conference for Jerome Powell. So the FOMC is going to be the most important. I'm assuming most people expect them to pause interest rates again, so not hike or cut. And I believe that's basically priced into the Fed futures. So the PMIs, the Joel's job openings, and the ISM manufacturing can definitely move the market. That's going to give us our volatility probably at the beginning of the session. And then Thursday, just our usual initial jobless claims. And then also maybe factory orders can move us, but it just depends. Factory orders is always a hit or miss. And then Friday this is a big one. This is the US non-farm payrolls. We also have the US unemployment rate and US hourly wages. And then I would say the second most important is going to be the S&P US services PMI and the ISM services. ISM services specifically can move us very heavily. So very data stacked week. Most important going to be the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Second most important going to be non-farm payrolls. Third most important probably going to be ISM services or these PMIs right here. Then we also have the Joel's job openings, ISM manufacturing. So lots of data this week. Definitely want to pay attention to it and be prepared for volatility. All right. Next we're going to seasonality real quick. So last week we actually averaged a dip on all years. So we looked at data for the 25, the 15, and the 10 years worth of data. They all averaged a dip anywhere from negative 0.7 to negative 0.4, I believe. So we did average a dip and we did dip in the market last week. So we did follow the seasonality pretty well. This week we do average a plus 0.74% return and that's for the 25 years. For the 15 we average a plus 0.6% return and for the 10 years we average a plus 0.48% return. So all three are averaging again. And that makes sense usually because this time of the year we do start to rally towards the end of the year. So keep that in the back of your mind. We could see a little bit of a rally this year even though I think the technicals are kind of saying otherwise we're going to have to wait for some confirmation on the charts. The seasonality does average a return, a pretty good one. So we'll see how that goes. All right, let's go ahead and get into our individual tickers, which actually this week is all going to be ETFs. So we're looking at the SMH, which is a semiconductor ETF. We're looking at the XLV, which is a healthcare ETF. And also looking at the XLV, which is an energy ETF. I just didn't find any individual names that I really liked. A lot of good tech earnings last week, but I really, I don't know, I feel like they have some room to fall. So I didn't really find anything on the tech side that I really liked too much. And these just ended up looking the best to me, honestly. So with SMH here, I'm mostly just eyeing this gap below. So the trade is only going to be confirmed if we start to enter that gap. So what you can do, go ahead and draw a line at the gap support. It's going to be a 13628, I believe. And then I went ahead and right clicked it and we added an alert and we just named a gap. And that way, once it gets down there and it starts to enter that gap, we can go ahead and start looking for some downside. And I'm going to be looking at puts on this specifically, but it needs to enter that gap first before taking a trade because this could just hold as support. Another thing we broke this 139.76, which 140 was probably a psychological level anyway, just 140 flat. And we broke under that and closed under that. And for this to continue down, obviously it would need to stay outside the channel. So if it does start to enter the channel and get back over 140, you could probably start looking for a bounce, honestly. And that's why you want to wait for it to enter the gap first. If you want to take puts and if you want to trade downside, wait for it to enter that before trying. Just wait for that confirmation. It'll make everything a little bit easier. So that's for SMH, looking at puts. Just wait for it to enter that gap. All right, next, we're going into XLV, this is a health care ETF. So health care is actually usually a type of safety play. People usually look for health care when the markets are correcting and markets are pulling back. It's kind of like that recession proof sector that does well in any economic scenario. But last week, we actually had health care selling off with the broad market. So last week, we got a broad market sell off. Pretty much everything was selling off. Doesn't matter if you're in utilities or energy, XLV, which is health care, there was a sell off. So there was really no safety play last week. Everything was selling. Well, the interesting thing about XLV here, this RSI on the one day, it started to get to an extreme point. I usually only look at the RSI when it actually gets into an extreme point. You know, below 30, below 25, that's when the RSI is at an extreme. And that can give you overbought or over sole conditions depending on if it's up or down. So this RSI point here is actually the lowest it's been since at least 2022 to 2021. If we go all the way back here, it was down at this level back in January, 2022, this in the 25s. And it was also this low back in October of 2021. And it was pretty much at the same level about 25. So that's where XLV is sitting currently. That's one piece of analysis. Another thing we need to see it doing for it to get that dead cab bounce or some type of bounce, we need to see it getting back over 123.60. It's going to be this low right here. So just keep it simple. If it starts to claim back over this low right here, it could probably bounce back up, fill up the sale and balance and get up to 126.05. So just keep it simple looking pretty oversold. I definitely wouldn't want to short into this. Obviously it could maybe go a little bit lower down to this point right here at about 120. That's why you want to make sure it reclaims over 123.60 first. If it starts getting back over that, it can probably shoot back up and then back up to the 126. But if it stays under this and keeps closing under this, it's probably going to try to fall back down to the 120 level, which is down here. So XLV, I'm going to be looking at calls. I'm hoping that the market can maybe try to catch a safety bid and it'll try to, you know, bid up health care while the markets pull back. Cause everything else kind of looks like crap. And even XLV here, I mean, it's pretty much going straight down and also looks like crap. But if the market can shake that off and find some safety and energy or in healthcare or in utilities, we can see this going up while the market, you know, keeps going down. But we want to see it getting over that 123.60 first. If it can get over that, it'll be looking good. So XLV, looking at calls, just be patient. Wait for it to reclaim this level. All right. Next, we're going into XLV. This is the energy ETF says mostly exposure to Exxon and CVX, which reported earnings on Friday. They both pretty much went down after earnings pretty heavily at CVX, especially closed down almost 6%. So it actually destroyed the XLV, even though crude oil was up almost 3% on Friday. Regardless, the XLV still sold off CVX and Exxon would not catch a bid with oil. So eventually I feel like this will try to catch back up to the commodity. If you look at the correlation between crude oil and XLV, it's basically spot on. I can show you right now. We'll go ahead and add it real quick. Go to CL. This is the crude oil futures. Click on that hit a new price scale. And here's the correlation. So the orange line is crude oil and then our regular candles are just XLV. And you can see how there was a divergence here. So you got the orange line, which is crude oil going up. Well, XLV is down likely due to CVX and Exxon earnings, but eventually it always catches back up and they move, you know, they move hand in hand. As you can see, there's a basically spot on correlation. Whenever crude oil is going up, XLV is going to go up as well. So if crude oil continues this move up, I feel like the XLV can bounce and the oil stocks are going to try to catch back up to the actual commodity. And likely with the tensions in the Middle East, I feel like oil can definitely keep going up. It just depends. Obviously it's a little volatile right now and it's kind of random, you know, one day it can gap up three, four percent and the next day it could sell off. It's just how, you know, tensions and war goes. It makes commodities very volatile. So another thing we're eyeing on Exxon Lee here is 8426. This is a major low. You just see it holding that if it can bounce off that, we could definitely head back up to 8770s. There's going to be this little peak resistance right here. It also had a small little bounce right here. It was a little bounce zone right here as well, but it can get back up there if, you know, it can hold up this 8426 as well as it'll need to get back over this 200 EMA. So these dots right here, this is the one day 200 EMA. It'll need to get back over that as well. And we did close under it. So not a great sign, but I mean, 200 EMA plays can fake out a lot like it'll close back under and then shoot back over. I mean, Exxon Lee has done it a bunch of times before. He got a fake out right here closed under 200 EMA. Eventually just, you know, shoots back up. So the moving averages is not always a hundred percent accurate or anything like that, but it's definitely a good trend indicator. So this could be hitting some weakness, which is why you want to see holding 8426 and getting back over that as well on the one day. So I'm going to be looking at calls on this. I already have some November 90 calls that are down pretty bad, but I'm thinking about looking at a new strike and opening up maybe one closer in the money, something maybe for December instead just depends. We'll see how 8426 is holding. See if you can hold up that catch back up to oil. And then we can look for upside. So Exxon Lee looking at calls, make sure it's holding this support. All right. Not to the indexes. We're looking at the spy here. So last week we were focused on 420 18 to 418 31. I wasn't feeling any downside until we started breaking under that. So I was mostly looking for longs off this area, which it worked Monday and Tuesday very well. You're able to catch some good day trades off this at least. But you can see, I mean, these daily candles were ugly. You got a higher shadow wick right here on Monday. And then the next day after, you know, some earnings came out, we did have another green day, but I mean, look at this candle, it's not full body. There's really nothing to it. Just looks like it's trying to make a lower high to go lower. Kind of just that base in order to make lower lows. So drop base drop. And then once we lost that 420 18 and 418 31 closed under it on Wednesday, you can see, there's just two days of straight selling. So that's why I mentioned we needed to see it holding over this. And I wouldn't feel bearish until it started breaking under this. And we did exactly that. Definitely found the technicals very well. And I showed you last week, the 418 31 was from this 2023 February high right here. And that's why, you know, it kind of held up there. It's kind of like a back test level. And then the 420 18 was just recent structure lows, just from right here at this area. So for this week, we closed under that major, major 420s to 418s, not looking great. And now we're starting to come down into an old base right here. I'll show you where this came from. So this 410 or 409 80s, whatever you want to call it, I'll just call it 410 comes from this base right here where we had a bounce. And there's some wicks right here as well at 408 87. So definitely watch that. And there's this little gap below. I don't like this area for a bounce personally. I would rather wait for it to get down to 405, you know, or the 403s, which is this structured low right here. And if we zoom out, we still got a little bit to go before we do that. You know what I mean? Probably about another $5 or so. So it just doesn't look great. I mean, I really don't like this area for support that much. Obviously, I would need to start bouncing here and making confirmation of a one day bar, like a bullish, bullish one day bar, something that's obvious, showing that this level is going to hold and go higher. And right now we just don't have that. So I don't feel comfortable saying 410 is going to hold that well. I feel way better about buying at these structured lows right here, which is a tad bit lower. And of course, if this doesn't hold, you know, at the 403s or 400 flat as a psychological level, that just takes you down to this, you know, March 23 lows. So this is definitely an area you want to be careful at. I feel like it looks better to keep shorting the pops, to be honest, so if it bounces, just keep shorting it. Keep trying to get some downside. The one day RSI, not really. I might be below 30. It probably just crossed below 30. And it looks like it could, you know, go a little bit lower. I mean, the RSI can keep, can keep going lower if it wants to. That's why you want candle confirmation. You don't want to just, you know, buy based off the RSI. That's why in XLV, we want to see getting back over that level. And that would confirm that this RSI was oversold and that we can reclaim over. But what's by here, I mean, this could keep going lower. I mean, this is RSI can go, you know, below 20s sometimes. So you got to be careful with that. I would keep shorting the pops, to be honest. I would not long until we start getting over the 420s again, or the 418s. So 418 to 420 is your zone. You would want to reclaim in order to get more upside. And we just don't have that right now. But maybe with seasonality, you know, we do average a gain. So maybe we could see a little recovery rally to something small before it try to go lower. But either way, I would just keep shorting the pops, to be honest, and wait for that 403s to 405 area to get down there. And you can look to buy the dips around that area. So that's for the spy. Like I said, 410s to 40880s or so is a potential hold up area. I mean, I showed you the base, showed you the wicks where it bounced prior. So it could hold up there, but I just don't think it looks that great, to be honest. Like I said, this major structure low looks way better. I feel like it could go a little bit lower down to that area, but we'll have to see. Like I said, just watch the 410s. If it does to start hold up and, you know, Monday open, it seems obviously 410s are holding, you know, maybe you could look to buy the dip for a day trade or something. But eventually, I feel like it's going to get smacked back down. And, you know, we're kind of in trouble here until we get back over 418 to 420. So just keep it simple, wait for longs, wait for it to get down to, you know, 405 or 403 area or wait for it to get back above the 418s to 420s. All right. Next, we're going into QQQ, which in my opinion looks way more clear cut for downside than the spy. There's a lot of buy and balance right here. And there's a gap right here that needs to get filled. There's also a major August 2022 peak from right here. So we could probably tap that eventually. Another thing, we also broke down the structure lows at 354.71. So that was our area of focus last week. I mentioned you could look for dip buys of that area. And I said it had a max low of 351.36. And we literally actually bounced off that area. That was the demand zone low that we had. And now that demand zone is invalid. That's why I don't have it on my chart anymore. It was right here. This is our demand zone. That's why I mentioned the 351.36 was the max low I could see until we started closing under it. We got one close under it on Wednesday. Totally broke structure. So technical has been working really well. Levels have been working very clear cut and now we're closed under those on Friday. So we do have an inside bar here as well. So it's probably going to need to break out of this inside bar at 344 to 348.80s. So we need to either break over the high of the inside bar or break down the low. Of the inside bar in order to get out of this little structure right here. And then we also had a little support base right here at 346.50. There's a little bounce zone right there. We closed under that and then this is all just buying balance. So I feel like QQQ can definitely go lower. Also broke this little trend line support or channel support whatever you want to call it. You got to test one, test two, test three, test four bounce off the blue line. Just lower channel support closed under it Wednesday flushed very heavily and we're still closed under it. So it doesn't look good. One thing it has going for it. One day 200 SMA is right here so it could hold up here. It would probably need like a really nice one day close like some type of bullish bar indicating the one day 200 SMA is going to hold and we're going to continue higher because right now I mean you don't have any bullish bars. You just have a bearish inside bar that can go either way. And like I said, it needs to either take out the high or the low of the inside bar to give you a signal and for bulls obviously I mean it's going to need to be obvious. It's going to need to reclaim 351.30s and the 354.70s which is the structure lows. 354.70s comes from right here. 351.36 structure low right here. So needs to get back over that in order to start being bullish probably get back within the channel as well. So it just looks bearish right now guys. I mean I don't know what else to say. Doesn't look good. And without some type of one day bar that confirming that we're holding up and reclaiming levels it just looks like it's going to keep going lower and people are going to keep shorting these pops and take it down to you know at least this gap right here. I can see as low as the gap honestly August 2022 and this little gap right here and like I said the August 2022 level from right here and we haven't tested that in a really long time. So seems like a pretty obvious level. You got big buy in balance right here. Hasn't been filled yet filled just a little bit but still a little bit to go plus the gap. I feel like it can go a little bit lower and like I said I would only be bullish if we start getting back over 346.51 351.36 and 354.71 those are the short term bullish levels. It would need to start getting back over for upside and obviously for bears it just needs to stay under all three of those in order to flush lower. I'm leading a little bit more bearish this week it just doesn't look that good. And then we looked at the seasonality so you know anything could happen. It's positive. You could average anywhere from a plus point seven return to you know half a percent or so. And I was showing that for all three years of the data we looked at for 25 15 and 10 year data. So that's where the QQQ doesn't look great closed under all major structures closed under channel support as a gap to fill below. Haven't tested the August 2022 peak yet. So I also have that bearish inside bar. And like I said the inside bar it just depends if it's going to break under the lows or the highs of the inside bar. Keep it simple. You can use that as a signal as well. Go ahead and draw a line on the high of the inside bar and a line on the low of the inside bar. And you look for a day trade signal on that if it starts breaking down the low of the inside bar could definitely break down and go lower. So regardless of seasonality looks bearish here. I mean it's hard to feel good about this honestly. And usually you know I like to buy dips and stay bullish for the most part because the stock market is designed to go up but it just doesn't look good right now guys. I don't know what else to say. I mean spy doesn't look great. QQQ doesn't look great. IWM closed under major structure lows. Volatility is closing back over the 21. So it just doesn't look good guys. That's why I have you know I'm looking at XLV health care and energy. Hopefully you can see a bounce in that something that's not tech and more safety. And then SMH like I said needs to enter that gap. And if SMH starts entering that gap the semiconductor sector is huge in the QQQQ. So if SMH is going to start going down and semi start going down QQQ is going to go with it. So that's your levels of focus three forty six fifty one three fifty one thirty six three fifty four seventy one. Those are all for the upside. And that's pretty much considered resistance right now since we're below it. And then potential supports just this gap area or the August peak. That's all I can see right now. Unless it starts getting back over like I said and it just bounces randomly here looking like it's going to go a little bit lower here at least to the August twenty twenty two peak. All right. And last but not least we're going into the VIX. So last week we were just focused on twenty eighty one. Got a rejection on twenty eighty one right here. Rejection here. Rejection here. And then it looks like Monday we did get a close under the twenty eighty one which then gave us our bounce on Tuesday as well because it fell some more. And then look right where it bounced off 18 eighty eight which is this level here with the arrow pet arrow pretty much on any extreme point or any important level. I have arrows on and you can see it back tested bounced went higher went back to the twenty eighties went back to the twenty one thirty three. It just hasn't closed over the twenty one thirty three yet. Except for this one day right here which is Friday the twentieth. We didn't close over it on Friday. We didn't close over it on Thursday either. We didn't close over on this big spike up to twenty three on Monday. So it's just been wild guys. I mean look at it. It's just very back and forth even with the clothes is under the twenty is it still gets big back up. And right now it's just kind of waiting or either waiting for it to start closing back over twenty one thirty three and march higher. Or this is you know a stall out spot and it's going to start falling from right here because we just can't close over the twenty one thirties either way it keeps making higher loads and it looks like it's trying to blow off the top here. Even the UVXY and you know the SQQ's anything that's inverse to the market's been catching a bid pretty much and kind of building up that pressure. There's probably a lot of demand to hedge lately just because of the uncertainty. Lots of macro risks. The bond market's crashing. Yields keep going higher. The DXY is going up. So there's just a lot. There's just a lot of risks. But we're basically at the same spot as last week. We're focused on the twenty one thirty three in the twenty eighty one. Same thing this week. We do need to see it keep closing under this to go lower. We need to start seeing that twenty one thirty three close over that and it'll start going higher. I mean it's just nonstop. It's very persistent here to keep going up. So on the indexes we just looked at closing under all major lows closing under channel support. Lots of room to fall. And we just had a very awful close last week. So twenty one thirty three twenty eighty one. Just watch it if we can get a close under it again. I feel good about a bounce. We'll keep that same signal as we did last week close under twenty eighty one bullish. Let's go ahead and look for that. If we can get that I'd be willing to buy the dip. If it starts closing and breaking over twenty one thirty three again not going to feel good probably going to keep shorting pops. I did a couple of put setups last week for day trades. I started kind of switching a little bit more shorting the pops on spotting QQQ and starting to get used to that bear set up shorting the pops because nothing holds anymore guys it just hasn't been holding it's been a rough three months. The trends don't hold we get those dead cap bounces and they sell right back off. So just be careful guys like I said indexes all closing under major structure lows seasonality looks good. Like I said that could be a positive for us this week otherwise just remain cautious. I'm probably going to keep shorting the pops to be honest unless we truly get a signal that volatility is starting to go down and it's time to buy and we're just we just don't have that right now. So hopefully we'll have some more answers this week. Lots of data this week I showed you the economic calendar. I mean there's just so much going on this week. It's ridiculous. There's at least like 10 data sets that are worth noting here PMI's job openings ISM manufacturing the FOMC which is the biggest one factory orders maybe non farm payrolls services PMI ISM services unemployment rate just a bunch of stuff. I mean there's so much info that's going to be dropped this week it's going to be ridiculous. So it's going to be lots of volatility play it safe. That's why I kind of feel good about having health care and energy on watch. And then maybe sticking to a short tech type of bias. But we'll have to see just going to depend on Monday and the data and everything. How the one day candles are closing everything. You got to consider everything. And honestly it could just be wise to just sit out this week and be with all the volatility with all the data FOMC. I mean it's basically a gamble guys it's it's a coin toss. Anything can happen this week. So I hope you guys enjoyed this video. Make sure you like comment and subscribe to our extra YouTube channel. I'm going to go ahead and get this chopped up edited and sent out. I love you guys and I'm out.