 Hi everyone, June 1st, this is Miss Schneider, Chief Strategist of MarketGauge.com bringing you an update on the earlier video I did this week as we have once again been very news heavy with the retail sector testing key support, the Russell 2000 once again getting a pass at critical support, while Nasdaq took a little bit of a breather, the Spicer Gathering Steam and where we're going to start here is with the dollar as we head into the NFP. Big news of course this week has been the debt ceiling which has passed the house could potentially pass the Senate. I never thought that was an issue. But also we have the Fed doing some talking about actually possibly skipping the June meeting and that's given a little bit of a relief to the market while ISM numbers and things like that contract and of course some of the inflationary indicators continue to expand like PCE for example adjusted showed that the PCE could potentially be at a point where if it breaks out from here higher that would be actually that would be heading into the area we haven't seen since 1980-84. Now of course the dollar is its own animal, there's a relationship to how things have worked in the commodities market but not necessarily set in stone and of course we've been talking about that 104-20 as the pivotal level and here we are. Today, June 1st it came in, broke down under that 104-20 and now you can see we're getting some follow through the downside. So we've got 103 as the next major support area. If we hold 103 we may see another back bounce up closer to 104 maybe even higher obviously this has been like dollar safety haven somewhat although we're still just getting I think a technical bounce off of these triple bottoms and if we cannot get above 103 and we break down under 103 of course we'll be looking at that 50-day moving average and any break in the future zooming out below these triple bottoms would definitely not look so good for the dollar. On the flip side if this is just a one-day sell-off based on some optimism in the market that the Fed is not going to be so restrictive then of course we get back through 104 but once again back at looking at the 200-day moving average up at around 105. So right here a little bit choppy but I think 104-103 those are your areas to be looking at right now. Let's take a look at a pair with the dollar versus the Japanese yen which was in the best shape as we looked at a couple of days ago. Very similar to what we saw in the last chart this is the dollar versus the yen right so this is the dollar is the lead month and of course we can see that the dollar is weakening while the yen is strengthening and we took a look at this 140 level and that of course would be now an area that we would be looking at for a potential breakout of the dollar versus the yen but right now it looks to me like we have this next area of support to look at at the 200-day moving average which is really at 137.30 so with it being so close by similar to what we just said about the dollar looking purely at the dollar gets through 104 or can't break beneath 103 then I would imagine that we'll see this level hold at 137.30 and yet another bounce but once again we have a little bit of a reversal pattern not so strong we're not seeing that little semi-circle that we see often on these charts but it is telling you that we had a new 60 plus day high and a reversal so this is really right now supporting potentially if the dollar goes further if you don't want to actually be short the dollar look to maybe buy the yen against the dollar now we're looking at the gold chart look at those volume patterns that we see down here some nice volume coming in over the last three days as we've taken a nice bounce now this is the August contract I've kind of skipped out of the June contract and right into August as a futures we like to look out a little bit and 1950 where before we went to 1932 in the June contract this is holding 1950 and of course that's 60 day low we're getting a little bit of a bounce but also running into some congestion some traffic if you will up at around 2000 to 2005 so at this point now we get through 2000 and particularly if we get through 2005 regardless of what happens with the numbers tomorrow I think that gold can actually continue to go up that that was the correction that we needed to see and of course we have a long trip up to 2100 but at least we'd be going in the right direction where would I start to think maybe not so much obviously now we would have to break down under that 1950 level in which case we could see a much deeper contraction maybe down to around 1880 1870 so in the great scheme of things trying to figure out what copper is doing which looks obviously very different than the gold it's really mimicking some of the concerns in the economy at this point although we still very much believe that we're not going into any deep recession and that the worst of the economic contraction given a number here and there is really kind of behind us and the market of course being forward thinking Dr. Copper it's relationship to the US economy but we again have now a nice little reversal pattern new 60-day low getting some follow-through once again running into some congestion so at this point if I were to be interested in trading the copper futures and we're looking here at July contract then we would have to be looking at a move over 380 over $3.80 I think that would be a pretty good sign that the S&P will continue its run we'll take a look at SPX in a moment and that even the small caps which we're also going to take a look at because it just looks so different than how the SPX looks could possibly be getting that major support and we could see a little bit of the start of a summer rally wouldn't that be nice so on the flip side of course I would want to see this whole 360 we break down under 360 so you're talking about a 20 cent risk really here then I would start to change my mind and think that things are getting ugly again as far as these moving averages here's your 200 and here's your 50 and even though they're coming closer together the 50 has been somewhat choppy so it's not been all that reliable it's really been the 200 day moving average with this big move above it here after months and months of months of being below it that we're going to be looking at and that's why 380 becomes so important which takes us right into the E-mini so here we go now the most interesting things about this is first of all it's in a bullish phase it's above the 50 and the 200 and the 50 is above the 200 in terms of stack that to us is a bullish phase now on top of that we did have a little bit of a reversal top with follow-through yesterday made 31st because it closed below the low of the high day the last time we were at these highs was right here back in really February well actually very beginning of March before the banking crisis and we're almost right back to it what happens with these reversals if you were looking to get into the market right here is you really want to see these highs clear so what's about 4,024 4,024 20 that would really be the area that would have to clear that would also be really close to clearing this would also show you that the momentum has improved to the upside in which case could we see a move up to around 4,400 absolutely but so much of it is going to depend on what happens with the small caps so let's have a look at that if every picture tells a story this one is definitely telling its own story number one is the trading range has been absolutely persistent particularly in the small caps number two is all things considered and how much bad news this market is absorbed one would think this might be lower but instead it's holding the very key support around 1,700 and my 23 month moving average chart that I've been looking at which is essentially a two year business cycle versus the 80 month moving average or the six to eight year business cycle this that too is showing major support just like in the retail sector right here at the recent lows so if we assume that bad news has been absorbed and this could actually clear out of its trading range of course that will help everything but particularly some of those beat up stocks let's say in materials we looked at copper steel would be another one and also just some of those value stocks that have been so underperforming the growth what would have to happen though number one is let's start out with saying we have to hold at least these most recent lows over the last couple of weeks which would be at around 1736 we're up at 1772 right now I would really want to see this break out over the two hundred that would be awesome that would clear all this base and probably send us up about another hundred to one hundred and fifty dollars if you can believe that we might actually be able to get to two thousand I mean that would defy every bear out there but nonetheless purely technical that's one possibility of course the other possibility is that this is just in the chop zone and things go awry we break down under that seventeen hundred and then of course we'll start to see much lower levels and that will drag everything else down so my overall macro thesis continues to be stagflation and we can see why we can get these pockets of strength how long live they are of course I believe will be really dependent on trading ranges that get established and of course we've had the forty two hundred in the SPX as the big one but I also showed you the corn chart and this is such a beautiful chart there was some stories today about the Russians once again blocking any kind of exports of Ukraine green and if that's the case we certainly could have seen it in the market with the reversal here you know the technicals always precede the fundamentals and now we got a nice move up to the fifty when I spoke to the other day it came back off and now here we are back at that fifty day moving average looking like we're going to go through so I would look for a confirmation at this point but over six oh six in the corn market and we looks very similar by the way also looks like it's bottoming as the soybeans then I think you might have another opportunity here with a pretty tight risk at this point now you really want to see this hold about five ninety seven five ninety eight through this six oh six level I don't see any reason why we can't get our next move up to around six eighteen to six twenty and then we can have another look but if this is indeed bottoming I think you really need to look at the implications for the overall market because right now the inflation numbers as have been high with PCE really shows that inflation still has been somewhat relaxed and could easily rear its ugly head once again so the way we would take advantage of it of course would be short dollar against a pair potentially maybe buying some of the agricultural and certainly looking at the precious metals okay that's it for now so you can see lots of opportunities on the horizon hope you have a very good day on the excellent weekend and I will see you all again next week thanks so much and bye for now