 Okay, very good morning to everyone. It's Tuesday 22nd of October, so I hope you are doing well Going to talk about as you can see updates on Boris Johnson and his plans for Brexit there's quite a few Developments and timings to look out for throughout the day and the next coming days, so I'll try and keep it as Clear and concise as possible if that even is possible when it talks when you talk about Brexit Also, going to talk about Trump sounding a little bit more optimistic last night on the US-China trade Situation giving some hope about a deal being signed in Chile when they meet in a month's time We've also got expectations about the oil infantry data for this week Where it is anticipated for another build for the sixth consecutive time, which would be the longest string of builds for Approximately a year. We also had Canadian elections overnight, but Very small moves seen in the Canadian dollar But I can quickly get you up to speed what the headlines are there And then we've got a number of earnings reports to come out ahead of the US open of some Magnitude in regard to larger market cap stocks today. So that's what's on the agenda quick look at the the charts overall just from a general sentiment point of view obviously Sam will run through this In more detail with specific technical levels But generally speaking a positive close on Wall Street as you can see The S&P 500 having a little bit extension overnight having traded above that psychological 3,000 toward the close Yesterday evening so overnight in Asia kind of generally following suit European indices being pulling back a touch since the European players came into the market, but the DAX for the moment still holding on to Moderate gains Elsewhere, it's pretty quiet FX markets basically flat in the major pairs reflection really of Ready relatively subdued dollar gold prices Reflecting that as well just finding some resistance near term at the pivot level Only trading up about one and a half dollars for the time being and then crude oil a touch lower 17 cents. So overall Just relatively quiet no real major headlines developing overnight More so just a bit of a positive finish to proceedings last night on Wall Street Predominantly surrounding some optimism around the trade dialogue between the US and China But before we get to that story, let's just jump straight in on Brexit. And what are we looking out for today? Well today as you can see from these headlines MPs will come together at 7 p.m. London time for what's known as the second Reading vote on whether Parliament agrees with the general principles of the bill This will then follow various other proceedings, which I'll show you now. So this is the Kind of graphic that the BBC Obviously do often and it makes it quite an easy Way of looking at what is next to come essentially with this whole situation So a speaker has ruled out a meaningful vote that happened yesterday And now the withdrawal agreement bill has been introduced and that's either gonna be a case of pass or fail Expectations I'd say on the balance here are that it will pass But then the idea is about then the next stages beyond this is about the hearing of major amendments Of which then one which we'll discuss is going to be predominantly tabled by labor about remaining in the customs union Which could sculpt of the entire deal for Boris Johnson essentially because it would mean then that His meaningful vote becomes meaningless in that respect One thing then what we can look at is this which is and I can share this in the trading live chat room It makes life easier, but this is literally a line by line Kind of timings around each part of this significant Proceedings so a couple of points here just to to make clear so an analysis of MPs previous votes and Statements do suggest that Johnson probably has enough Support to win the vote the vote on the withdrawal Agreement bill, but it will be immediately followed by a second on whether MPs agree to his rapid timetable for pushing the bill through So this is this one at 715 that will come immediately after if all being as expected that passes at 7 715 will have the vote on the program Motion this is basically the timetabling of what parliament are debating If it doesn't pass that hurdle, he could still deliver Brexit But it have very little chance of doing so on time Which is obviously his commitment to get it done by the 31st of October now one thing just to bring to your attention is that? Actually the government released a 110 page withdrawal agreement bill Along with 125 page little note pack explaining what that means They released at 8 p.m. Last night Expecting MPs to have read through all of that overnight to be in a position to be able to make judgment And what is arguably one of the most important proceedings in UK political history? So you can see where I'm going with this likelihood is there's going to be a lot of disgruntled MPs And this is where the idea is well, maybe he can't get that hyper speed hearing through Looking to do it in multiple days rather than what would take a much longer time period In more normal circumstances, so there is potential hurdles to navigate here If though the program motion passes, so we'll know that about 7 30 then first committee stage votes will happen at 10 30 p.m So late one for the MPs in Parliament and then the committee stage continues with votes every three hours With amendments on keeping the UK in the customs union with the EU and calling a second referendum are likely to appear Again, these are amendments to the withdrawal agreement bill before then it later is would be ratified In additional hearings, so that's not going to happen going off to Bloomberg timetable Until the sessions that will see tomorrow afternoon, but obviously to get to that point We have to just make sure we navigate through some of the ones later on this evening Now a few other points here Again, I will share this with you so you can read it all In a bit more detail in your own time because it's quite a lot of information, but to summarize a few other points Now that Johnson has sent the letter asking for article 50 extension There is talk that the government could have another staff at a meaningful vote Which is the top left hand box However, the likelihood here as what we saw yesterday is that the House Speaker Burko or it would be highly unlikely here That allowed that to go through You can safely bet that there will be an amendment though put forward as we just discussed If we get through these initial proceedings To make ratification of the deal conditional on holding a second referendum This has been Labour's kind of plug But despite the Labour Party giving their blessing most don't think this has enough numbers in Parliament to get through So the amendment on the idea of a Confirmation or second referendum although some might want it It's unlikely to get the backing Necessary with the numbers to go through as a as a pass for that specific amendment The one that's the one to watch is the one to try and force the government into negotiating Customs union access as part of future trade talks last time this was voted on it was called the so-called Indicative vote if you can remember That was back in the spring and actually that indicative vote That was one of the closest ones that we've had that was defeated by three votes at the time now back in April 89 lawmakers abstained but a fair chunk of them may be minded to vote for a Customs Union this time round in order to break up The ambition of Boris Johnson if the Customs Union amendment passed the assumption is the bill would lose the support of the 28 kind of pro-Brexit conservative MPs or those so-called Spartans Which had previously giving their backing to Boris Johnson, of course and that given the lack of support He's already got we hasn't got from the DUP would mean his whole thing just blows up at that point and then There were a few options. We were talking yesterday all Roots seemingly are still leading down this Avenue It just depends on how and when that ultimately probably the resolution to all of this could still well be a general election Which all things being equal perhaps? Was Boris Johnson strategy all along? I guess though what Labour will be mindful of is they will want to put off a General election as long as possible to make it look as bad as possible That Boris hasn't really been able to get it over the line as soon as possible But one very small tail risk is that Boris Johnson could technically call a no confidence in himself As ridiculous as that sounds meaning then that it gives 14 days for opposition parties to try and club together to form a credible Kind of opposition, but the problem is that that would need to be a cross-party alliance which comes with lots of difficulties because No one really wants to team up with Labour and the Lib Dems said they don't want to team up with anyone given that they're far extreme Angle of revoking Brexit all along or as its endgame meaning that then Boris could well be in a position. Well look I Need to stay as the interim caretaker prime minister We need to have a general election and then at that point all polls still Remaining equal the average polar polls still gives him a distinct lead at the moment as much as we need to take that with The pinch of salt. So that's the latest. That's what's going on at the moment of Brexit Hopefully that's as short and sharp as I can keep it as far as this type of news flow goes What I will do is when I finish this briefing I will share this graphic and this graphic and this graphic All in the chat rooms. I think I've tweeted most of them anyway for my Twitter account You see my handle there. So if you need them do check them out there moving on I did mention about Some positive noises coming out of Washington which helped US indices kind of drift higher Yesterday the S&P is trading back above 3,000 for the moment And it's coming of course in the midst of earning season fully underway So what did Trump say? He said China has indicated that negotiations over initial trade deal are advancing Raising expectations the nation's leader could sign an agreement in a meeting next month in Chile Trump said that they've started buying. This is in reference, of course to the Part of the agreement with that partial deal signed two weeks ago about I think it was 40 to 50 billion dollars worth of Upfront agricultural purchases that China pledged to make in order to reach this kind of temporary ceasefire And Trump very happy that that now has begun and of course this is important for him politically to appease his base Given the fact that they the farmers are the ones that have been struggling Significantly under the pulling out of some of the purchases that China were making as the biggest buyer traditionally of those goods However, it's not all positive Kind of plain sailing the Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross He said the quote actual meat of the agreement could come into Additional phases yet to be completed. So just tempering a little perhaps a little bit of the president's optimism A little dose of reality. Don't forget the whole more contentious issues about the Intellectual property theft and these types of major Sticking points have not yet been addressed. And so hence the reason why some initially were a little bit A little bit flat or neutral in their response in regards to The initial partial deal. So one to watch Elsewhere other headlines to be aware of As we go into the API crude oil infantry's later on tonight 9 30 London time And then we'll get the DOE's tomorrow The expectations here is that it's probable that Infantry's the headline crude number rose for a sixth time a sixth week in a row Ending the week of October 18th that would mark the longest run of consecutive builds in almost a year The number at this point in time is for an expected build of three million barrels Elsewhere Saudi Aramco Continue to just state quite explicitly. They're now back to producing crude at normal levels having raised its output briefly to restock Storage depleted after those September drone attacks on their infrastructure and Then the other piece of news that we've had overnight I'm not going to dwell too much on this because quite frankly the Canadian dollar hasn't reacted at all But Justin Tredo Overcomes scandals to win second term in his divided country. However, he has Seen his power diminish somewhat as he will now lead a minority government. I think at last check He accumulated about 156 Seats which puts him short meaning he has to team up and the likely probable candidate to form this Coalition will be the pro-labor new Democratic Party, which has secured about 24 seats putting his government at about 180 But overall, I don't I mean it seems as if the market price is taking this in its in its stride So not perhaps overtly surprising and if anything the fact that he has remained in power Like you to just add some sense of calm with continuity in that sense. It's usually how it's reflected in market prices Finally earnings more to come Monday was pretty quiet actually it starts to get a little bit more Little bit more interesting pre-market. We've got McDonald's Proctor and Gamble UPS biogen United Tech They're probably the bigger market cap names to be aware of then aftermarket if you were interested In any of those kind of social media They're more kind of generally tied to or Responsive to general sentiment and snap ink is reporting after market Just as a guideline and so you are aware of the landscape of earnings for the week ahead So they're the major ones for today Tomorrow you get Boeing the biggest Dow component and you get Microsoft Largest company in the world reporting then Amazon's to follow after the market closed on Thursday European earnings if you are looking at them at all slightly smaller German software firm Called software AG up about 10% Novartis the pharmaceutical firm up about 2% this morning Wrecked Benchesa in London though after their earnings are down close to 6% if you are looking at some of those UK names Also just to finish and conclude on my part Just seeing the EU Council President Tusk has commented while I've been delivering this last few minutes He said the EU is to react to the UK's delay request in the coming days And he was ready for all scenarios. So pretty much just waiting to see I would guess Europe What we can do at this point given that timetable What we can do what Direction we're heading in before they can really comment about the terms and conditions of the extension If that is the case that they're they're going to give Canada wise for today We have a very quiet morning. There's nothing really scheduled of major significance There's public sector net borrowing coming out of the UK But seldom is that really a market move and certainly for the pound. There's just too much other Political focus that's going to dominate really the price movement of the currency later on this afternoon Canadian data is at 130 retail sales. So definitely a market move if you are looking at the loony Otherwise for the US existing home sales Will come later on and the oil inventories aftermarket speakers It's pretty quiet. There's actually nothing really scheduled at least for the moment And then you've got those earnings which you do need to be aware of also for any crude traders Looks like you've got the November futures expiry, but not sure that can be right at the timings wise So I'll double check that But yeah with the timetable of brexit. I'd probably overlay this On your calendars if you were sticking around I mean if you're kind of sitting there asking yourself the questions Should I just pack it in for this morning and come back later on tonight to trade from seven till 10 30 Let's not forget that in reality when you're trading come some of these headlines. It is very Illiquid generally very whipsaw price action can be quite difficult to really get a handle on and it's quite high Propensity that you could get chopped up So I would say if you're a more experienced trader then sure That can be something that you could trade Otherwise if you're new it might be better perhaps just to kind of leave it alone Try to focus on other products which are movement moving a lot more We're kind of normal smooth orderly fashion at the moment rather than quite a jumpy pound But if there is key moments obviously around seven to seven thirty Whether he can where the one we have the vote on the second reading and then the vote on the program motion These are the key things you're looking out for today If both past that will lead us on then to the amendment and it's the customs union one that will be key Not the second referendum as a summary All right, that's it for me. Hand you over to Sam. I'll let him go over some technicals. Thanks very much Hi guys. Good morning. Hope we're all doing well better than Arsenal anyway Let's have a quick look over we'll start off with the euro this morning. We should just drift in Down almost getting towards yesterday's low relatively small range this morning to begin with But just in general this this area pretty much where we're trading now is it's pretty significant was the higher that we had back on Thursday nice support on Friday afternoon as well and we failed to break below that yesterday Afternoon around about four o'clock. I believe yet So keep a keep a watch on here. You could call it a zone really I just put a bit below where we're trading from yesterday's lows the lows that we had Friday afternoon as well So it would be somewhere to keep an eye on that pivot this morning 112 above there on the futures Almost your mini range now. I would say so to the downside We make this zone a bit more appropriate to call that one 1180 and then up to 112 so 20 ticks zone No harm in waiting for the move to really kick on when it breaks either way Or if of course it breaks either way in terms of trend lines to the lows nothing Too significant that I would want on so we know the euro this year has been it's always been a good opportunity When you've had say a trend like this and then you get that break I mean you could argue we had a bit of a breakdown this morning, but not too accurate To be completely honest. However, probably would still have something on Like that just in case we were to come up and find some resistance there later on but the euro hasn't really been moving too much over This work the morning and yesterday Contained in the range as expected the pound yesterday Obviously we pushed higher Literally while we're doing the briefing and obviously then they never actually came back to that pivot point So that they've been quite aggressive to have got Well, I guess at the time we were saying initial target to be the initial high from Friday 129 89 before then reaching the high we had from last week, which we did and then Double top their failure to push on and we've now coming back to awards that area So I'd have it marked up 129 70 the previous highs give or take a tick or two Before we did break through around half eight So let's put this down to 15 minute you can just see if we were to come back and test this area here Be something I'd have marked up as a point of interest And then to the upside obviously you can see the we've already got a double top from this morning So 130 11 as well if we can get through there and sure yesterday's highs can look to come in and similar to The euro as well just trying to see have we got any nice trend lines from the lows is Relatively choppy which you would expect with a pound at the moment following these comments that are coming out We see we get lower filled that gap pretty quick And and now we're in a relatively small range and that sums up really the start to the week I would say yes. They was a pretty quiet day Elsewhere Stocks which just drifted higher. We are just coming down a bit now Actually, this is this area much like the euro you've got a high from Thursday, which we're just testing now, so Below here if it wasn't to hold up 3000 pivot level and just below is a relatively decent point The cash open took us below yesterday's mornings high and we snapped back and then found support there as well So keep a watch I would say if we were to come back down to this level 29 97 I like the the look of is well before that we would have to get through These trends here you can see so if we were to you know not find support on yesterday's high or Thursday's high Around about three thousand and five Which is also the low of the day that would be a point to keep an eye on as we have to start to drift down Neuros stocks you can see testing its pivot and Dax also near enough the low of the day so key level also for the Dax if we can push below here We found support yesterday evenings Lows as well to keep an eye to see how European stocks go from the For the next half hour and that could well drag on US equities But bit of support coming in nonetheless quick look over at oil. Yes So we had a decent move lower during the the well just before The briefing started and we broke that trend never came back to retest it However, what was a previous low of the breakdown point fifty three seventy eight. You can see we had marked up I guess well tested late on at seven o'clock and that's held since then worth again a couple of trends We are starting to get squeezed to to the downside here found a bit of support on Double bottom as well. So keep a watch should we get back towards that level a break of that And yes yesterday's lower points could well come in Have to say the oil market not you know, we were saying this yesterday for me. It's still been relatively Choppy and hard to get an overall direction. You can see where we're trading now is pretty much the average price You would say of the last well month to be honest pretty much in the in the middle between the range and Right now you can see a very choppy area as well. So no harm. I would say in the sort of holding off from that Yes, the key point you can see still marks up from yesterday fifty three seventy eight So not just the lower point, but also at higher Well, a few of the highest from previous so fifty three seventy eight might be you know best To sort of wait to see what happens there or a break of this trend to the downside As well getting involved between that maybe not ideal quick look over at gold to wrap it You can see we're actually just finding a bit of resistance now on yesterday morning's low So keep a watch on on that see how that reacts So we look at this trend coming up to that area as well Obviously with stocks is drifting lower and if the equities in the Europe are to push low Your stock is on the low the day now in the backs I just have a quick look at a chart on my left hand side is almost doing the same Then you could could see gold breaking through I probably want to confirm break before getting in here, and then you would be looking obviously to Go for some of the previous resistance points from well What would be resistance now support from yesterday to keep a watch on this 1490 pivot previous low for gold and levels to the downside Previous higher the day at fourteen eighty nine point one bit of a mini range to keep an eye on their Equities, which will just drift lower are going to help that cause safe havens Up the bunds you can see if I just bring this into picture not far off doing what gold is doing And getting to the previous low of yesterday morning Tentics above where we're trading T-notes also the same here you can see coming up to a resistance point as well So you got that trend line for the S&P gold at the pivot as well So keep a watch on that the power that she just now before We wrap it up. You can see it's breaking through its Pivot level as well. I'll be keeping a watch around twenty nine forty three fifty one as a relatively important Zone as well trend lines aren't amazing on this So I would just be looking at individual support points Nothing come through on on a tweak deck as far as I can see But we'll keep a close watch on that. I hope we all have a good trading day any questions as usual Please do