 Welcome to the Standard Tick Mill Weekly Market Outlook for week commencing the 28th of February with me Patrick Manley. Policymakers' comments this week will give a real sense of whether the conflict in Ukraine and the impact on energy prices have altered plans for the first approaching March Central Bank meetings. In the US, market attention obviously continue to focus on the Russian military assault on Ukraine and the geopolitical fallout. Sanctions are being ramped up and tensions along with market volatility will likely remain high. This is going to be reflected in the commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell when he appears before the House and Senate banking panels this week. His hawkish commentary following the January Federal Open Market Committee meeting resulted in the market interest rate hike expectations jumping higher with a strong chance of the 50 basis points interest rate increase priced in by financial markets. Let's expect that he will be more cautious this week given the financial market nervousness and this will likely cement expectations for a 25 basis point rate increase on March 16th. Nonetheless, power will continue to suggest that we should be braced for a series of interest rates increases given the economy is performing well and is creating jobs in significant numbers and is also experiencing broad based information pressures. Indeed, the spike in commodity prices makes it even more likely that we will see headline US inflation touch 8% in the next couple of months. Data wise, the February jobs report is set to show another decent increase in employment with the unemployment rate expected to fall back to 3.9% with average hourly earnings rising at a 5.7% annual rate. Business surveys are also likely to rebound following the depressing effect of the Oncom Wave in January and early February. From a technical perspective, the dollar index continues to trade above the 96.20 support. As it does so, we are now looking for a test of the 61.8% retracement of the prior cycle to the downside at 98.25. We also have projected monthly range assistance just above 98. I'm watching for bearish reversal patterns in this area. To engage on the short side, initially looking for a move back into the 96.60 area with further downside extension likely to see us test the 95.60. As always, we want to see that bearish rejection of this level before engaging on the short side. In Europe, the key data really next week will be inflationary metrics. This has still not been incorporated in the recent escalation, obviously, of the Russian current conflict with the EU enhancing broad and far-reaching sanctioning measures over the weekends. This may mean that final purchasing managers' index data will still provide limited information about current events. February inflation release will nevertheless be key for the European Central Bank. It will be the last inflation reading before the important March ECB meeting, and we could move even higher than Prince in January. Petroleum prices have been rising steeply in February, resulting in plenty of potential for energy inflation to have increased further. From a technical perspective, the euro is now testing the pivotal support just above the 111 handle. I'm looking for this area to fail, and while we hold below the pivot back to 112.40, we now look for a test of the important 110 level, which represents 78.6 percent retracement of the prior cycle to the upside. I'm watching the bullish reversal patterns there to engage on the long side. In Japan next week, we have Tuesday, February Nikkei manufacturing PMIs, final estimate for the month, and then the next important data point for Japanese Canada comes on Thursday with the February Nikkei Japan PMI services. Again, final estimate last time out, 42.7 was the print. From a technical perspective, the dolly yen continues to trade around that 115 handle. No decisive breakout. I'm looking for any moves to downside to be contained by the selling trend line support and the monthly projected range support at 113.40. Looking any pullbacks there for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side, ultimately looking for a test of 117.80. At this stage, only a close back through the trend line support of 113 would suggest a more meaningful high is in place, and we'll be looking for a deeper pullback to test the pivot at the 111.20s. In the UK, it's really going to be about Wednesday when we have Bank of England speakers see whether or not they are going to offer more pushback against rate expectations. By Wednesday, we've heard from all nine Bank of England committee members in the space of little over a week. That's interesting in itself, having had virtually no commentary from bank officials in the December-February inter-meeting period. What we've heard so far, including from Governor Andrew Bailey, suggests officials are lagging to continue hiking rates at the March and probably May meetings and been concerned about higher domestically generated inflation, but it's also clear that there is growing weariness about the amount of tightening markets are pricing for this year, which amounts to at least five more hikes. So far, the pushback from policymakers has been fairly subtle, and I doubt that we will change that in the speeches we get over the coming days after all market expectations, whilst steep are effectively providing policymakers with a hedge if it is persistently high inflation. However, the pressure on household incomes from energy prices is likely to result in slower, perhaps negative growth later this year. I also expect that some of the recent pressures on wages is likely to abate now that the post reopening movement in the jobs market likely slows. From a technical perspective, Sterling took out the trend line support. We're now back testing 132.60s. I'm looking for a break there to set up a move down to the Equality Objective at 130. From there, I'll watch for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side, looking for a move back into range at 134. Last but not least, down under in Australia on Tuesday, we get the Q4 current account balance, which is expected to narrow on smaller trade surface and weak export earnings. And then on Wednesday, we get the Q4 GDP, looking for a 3% print there, the reopening bounce from Delta lockdowns, principally led by New South Wales. And then on Thursday, we ran out the week with the January dwelling approvals, looking for a negative 3% print there as the unit spike is likely to unwind. X units should be actually further. From a technical perspective, the Aussie dollar continues to struggle to get a meaningful traction above the 70 to 40 area. As this continues to offer resistance, I'm looking for a move back down through the 1798 level on route to an ideal test of the 6870s. At this stage, only a close back through 7280 would suggest that we're going to trade higher immediately to test trade line resistance at the 74 level. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 28th of February. As always, trade the plan and most importantly, manage your risk. Until next time, thanks very much.