 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the fan duel podcast network and Number fire comm it is college football week here on covering the spread earlier this week We were talking highs and voting today. We're talking a little college football and future bets. My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire comm joined here as always by Ed Fang of the power rank comm You can follow him on Twitter at the power rank Ed Happy college football week part two on tap for today talking some college football futures I'm pumped for the season now less than one month away. How you doing today? I'm doing great this morning. I always love college football It's kind of where I first I know I guess that's the first I do in NFL numbers But love the college football game And excited to talk about things with you as always Jim This is a sports betting show, right? Okay. Yeah. Yeah, so I Feel like that means we should make maybe a wager on a game Just okay wager between the two of us and your school Northwestern is traveling out to one of my schools Stanford to open up the season Stanford is a six and a half point favorite a little bit of home field My numbers actually have Northwestern ranked ahead of Stanford. I hopefully we'll get into that a little bit interesting But you know the odds are towards Stanford. I was figuring this could be like a Gear type bet, you know, like you were sure of Stanford wins I wear a Northwestern shirt although I might have to wear like a Northwestern shirt for a couple episodes Just given the odds Well, oh What if you give me the points and we just make it straight up and we make it like, you know, based on the spread Yeah, we could we could do that too. I would take six and a half. I think that's pretty fair. I Mentioned before that I am So I was sort of scared about Northwestern this year because they did lose three offensive line starters I'm excited about Hunter Johnson as a quarterback And I think that's gonna be pretty fun But you know losing those three linemen does worry me But six and a half points is interesting. Last time they played was 2015 Christian McCaffrey Kevin Hogan year at Northwestern and right and you Terrible dude, they kind of disrupted some things there. I think I think the grass was like six feet tall Because they knew that McCaffrey would just shred them if it weren't six feet tall and that may have played a factor Justin yeah, that was also I Mean, I think it was like a noon kick at central time Which is obviously what you should do when you're inviting a Pac-12 team, you know to come east to open up the season Yeah, man, that was that was brutal. It was not a noon kick. It was 11 o'clock in the morning It was actually an hour earlier And those were always the worst ones in college because like you have to get to the stadium And it's like a mile off campus and you have to get there by 11 o'clock You're tired because it's Saturday morning in in November It's cold and it's even in it's 11 o'clock So those are not fun, but when you're playing Stanford a little bit extra buzz And I think that you know, I was very happy with the way things worked out there And I was very happy that McCaffrey may not have been fully awake just yet All right, so t-shirt on the show a TS six and a half points. Yes, I think six and a half is a good number I will take that so if Northwestern loses by less or by six or fewer points Or wins then at S to wear Northwestern shirt if Stanford wins by seven or more points. I am wearing a Stanford shirt And I would kind of like to have a Stanford shirt anyway, so I'm not really opposed to this I think this is actually a this is a pretty good one And I think it'll give me a little bit extra a little bit extra motivation to watch that game and have a little bit of fun I think this is this I like these friendly wages. This is fun Yeah, well, and I'm gonna get laughed at with my Northwestern shirt around Ann Arbor, but so be it That's all about let's not make any bets on Michigan against Northwestern because that has not gone. Well They've had a lot of ugly games and a lot of bad games, so let's man I'm glad to stand for did not Michigan. I'll say all right. No, that's fair. No But I mean Northwestern is giving Michigan some fits over the years. Yeah, and last year, so yeah I just have these awful flashbacks to I don't remember what year was I think it was 2014 when they went to overtime and Trevor Simeon, I think it was on a two-point conversion attempt He had a rollout towards the right. He tried to stop and because it was raining He just slid on his butt and the game was just over like that was that was the end of the game Somehow he got drafted and somehow he's actually played the NFL But like whenever I think of Simeon with with Northwestern, that's the first thing that pops out my mind They've had some pretty ugly games. Hey, it's better than a butt fumble. So that's true It could always be worse. Absolutely One quick reminder once again that if you missed our our podcast back on Monday with Edward e-grass He dropped a lot of really good information about betting on the Heisman historical trends some guys He likes for this you can find that podcast by searching for covering the spread on Spotify Apple podcast Soundcloud Stitcher wherever you get your podcast You can find that and while you are there especially on Apple make sure you leave a rating and a review because those help us out a Ton a lot of you have already done so so thank you to those of you who have but those are huge for a special to gear up for College football season in the NFL season. Thank you for those who have left those already and a big future Thank you to those of you who do leave them going forward Apple podcast where you can find Covering the spread as mentioned today. We're going through college football futures Which while we had to get a little northwestern versus Stanford talk in there We're gonna talk with Ed about what his numbers say at the power rank and where he finds an advantageous bets for 2019 and if you want to get in on the action check out the Fandall sportsbook and place your first bet today if you lose Fandall will give you a refund of up to $500 in site credit visit sportsbook.fandall.com for more details terms and conditions apply Must be 21 plus and physically present in New Jersey or now, Pennsylvania to place those bets gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLER Covering the present So let's dive on in now to covering the present taking a look at some of the numbers Ed has over at the power rank and Ed I want to pick your brain a little bit first here because as someone who has never built a college football model I'm very curious about how things work So first of all, you know, how long have you been doing these over at the power rank? And what's the process for building out these rankings that you have for all of the FPS teams? Yeah, so I've been doing this since 2013. Those are the earliest rankings that I have so it's about six years and It's a pretty simple regression model. It's multi-linear regression Something you probably do on Google sheets But it's based on this idea in college football that teams tend to persist from year to year Alabama is always going to have winning tradition and financial resources and Nick Saban and rice has none of those things so it's very unlikely that Alabama and rice are going to trade places in the in the college football pecking order and You know, if you've been good over the past couple years, that's pretty good predictor of You're being good next season And so the the primary ingredient in the model is how the team has performed over the past four years and The regression model figures out what the waiting is for those particular years and the way I evaluate team performance is by my team rankings and this is kind of how I got in the business originally so it just Looks at it takes margin victory in games and adjust for strength of schedule Obviously strength of schedule is a huge thing in college football where there's varying conference strengths from the SEC is Playing the SEC is much different from playing in the Sun Belt So and that's kind of where my math chops kind of come into play Good team rankings. I have a good estimate of where a program has been over the last four years That's the first thing in my model And then the next thing is turnovers. So your team rating can be pretty good if you have a very positive turnover margin my So so essentially the model says, you know, if you were plus 30 in turnovers last year That's unlikely to continue plus 30 probably means your team ranking was higher than it should have been And so it makes an adjustment for that and then the last factor that goes in the model is returning stars It's just one number and obviously if you have more returning starters you tend to perform better on the field the next year and Over the last five years It's a simple model It could be improved on and I do plan to do that one of these years but it's predicted the winner straight up and over 70 percent of college football games Over the last five years and this is only FBS versus FBS games. So the model doesn't do FCS games. So, you know, it's not including those cupcake games in that 70% one-rate You're not padding the stats with those SCS teams and one of the big keys to this model And this is available publicly on the powerink.com as you can see the predicted margin of victory against an average team is That the main driver when you build out your win total projections because the wind total projections are a separate thing And you know, you can see right a wind total projection for each team Is that predicted margin of victory the main driver behind those wind total project projections? Yeah, absolutely So, you know, you can be yeah, let's just take an example Let's do that Stanford at Northwestern game. Yeah, I forget exactly what the rating difference was But I think Northwestern was better by a point. Let's say so Because I had the rankings up here on the site right now Stanford is 4.39 and Northwestern is 5.14. So less than a point between the two teams against an average team So Stanford is gonna have home field. We'll just assume that's three points out there So Stanford is gonna be favored by 2.2 ish points So that margin of victory Implies a particular win probability for Stanford not a probably 55 56 percent and then you get your win totals You assume that every game is independent of every other game and you add up the win probabilities to get The win total and that's what you can get in my 2019 college football win totals report And when you're trying to build out, you know, like, you know Look at which bets you like most are you trying to stick to the ones that are that deviate the heaviest? from What the actual win totals are or are you looking for anything in particular? Are you just looking like so? Nebraska was one In the private example because you gave reasons why maybe your model is under under rating them But are you just looking for the extremes mostly? yeah so my approach to using analytics to bet is to look for those extremes and then understand where your model is wrong and You know research factors like injuries and then decide whether you want to make a bet and That's gonna happen for games and that certainly happens for win totals as well One thing I do want to say about win totals is that This is more true in the NFL than it is in college football, but you know, I'm always it Especially for this model. It's it's a Russia regression based model So it's gonna be better at predicting that a team is not Likely to fill up the hype, you know And the whole idea is that you're gonna regress to some mean and and in this model's case You're gonna regress to where your program's been over the last four years So that's why the model kind of hates Texas this year and I think that I think is right on there the model doesn't like Nebraska because They haven't really performed that well over the last four years. I'm a little bit more bullish on Nebraska as well but I guess I'm saying this to say that You know, especially in wind totals, especially looking for value you kind of want to look for teams that are, you know, like hyped teams that are kind of below Where the model says they're below a very high wind total So Texas nine and a half women's something like that And then you're looking for regression for like those bottom feeder teams, too, right? So I mean if you have a team that is That two and a half wins on the wind total market the model is probably gonna say something higher and that just means That regression it means really powerful So, so, you know, I mean bet over low wind totals bet under high wind totals and and that's even more true in the NFL And I think that's very broadly applicable to just betting in general. It's trying to spot regression and spot outliers and stuff like that And I think also one thing you talked about that's important is kind of knowing Where your model may under or overrate things and that's something I've tried to do a lot with NASCAR is like I want to know You know, I would say deficiencies in my model That's the way I would phrase it for me personally and I don't think it's a deficiency if your model doesn't fully account for something But more so just you want to know Where those differentiations may lie essentially. Yeah, no, yeah, I mean you have to understand your model and and You know, we might not have the financial crisis in 2008 if some of those guys understood the limitations of the model So so this is just very important In general and actually I also want to just let me throw in, you know, you can try to do the same thing For the NFL That I do with college football. It doesn't work It gives you crap just because it rests so hard in the NFL from year to year that it It's meaningless to look at right three or four years of how an NFL team is performed and try to project this season So I have outside circumstances matter a lot less there than yeah Well, and you just have like, I mean the margins are so thin in the NFL Right. I mean being you know being just with the salary cap and everything. It's just it All those teams are pushed very hard towards average And it's just hard for this kind of a Russian model get any insight based on, you know Last year's data or two years dive in here to what your numbers say for this year because Clemson and Alabama have basically run the world the past couple of years They've won four or four consecutive championships between the two of them. They both have elite quarterbacks returning we just talked about both those guys on Monday with Edward and I think that obviously these are gonna be the top two teams based on pretty much any model But how far are those two teams ahead of the pack based on your numbers? I mean an insane amount. I mean, I haven't seen any team as high as Clemson I think they're 27 points better than FBS average for this particular Russian model that is an insane number. They usually the top team is 21 22 points and that's usually Alabama You know, there's always some fortuitousness that that comes into a ranking that high I mean, I think Clemson all do respect great respect for the program, but They played their best game against Alabama in that championship game. That's really pushing up their rating from last year You know, they got some turnover breaks in that game as well so You know regression to mean says that's probably a little bit too high But that's also what you know what the model says and Alabama is not too far behind them There are a couple points below. I think you know the model right now would predict Clemson by about three points on a neutral field But yeah, those two teams are way ahead and I don't think you can Legitimate look at these programs with the caliber of quarterback. They're bringing back and argue with that So right now Clemson is plus 170 a Fandalsports book to win the championship Alabama plus 275 Because they are so far ahead of the pack. Would you be? Willing to bets either them at those numbers or do you think that those numbers are appropriate based on? What your numbers say? Yeah, I'm gonna have to take a pass on that right now Jim Just because like I can actually crank those numbers out. I just haven't had a chance to do that A couple weeks we can we can talk about it one thing you shouldn't note. I mean the odds on Clemson are a lot shorter I mean they they play such a weaker schedule than Alabama that even if you assume that they're at the same level You you'd have to give higher odds to Clemson and you can see that in their playoff odds too on on the Fandalsports book Right interesting So what are some teams that your model likes more than the national rankings when you because we did see the national ranking? Just come out this week So we kind of have a gauge of what the public thinks and what the voters think of various teams Are there any major deviations between your rankings and what they're saying? Yeah, I mean let me give you two teams that I that I think are interesting You know one one that I agree with and one that I don't and so LSU my model has a third It's too high. I mean right now you you have to kind of put Georgia as the third team behind Clemson in Alabama, I presume that's what the the rankings did I didn't get a chance to take a look at those Jim. I'll pull them up But what do you think about LSU? Yeah, LSU is you know, we're going into the year three of coach O and They obviously had a great year last year and you can't take anything away from them But I really just think they have limited upside. I'm not sold on Joe Burrow as a quarterback They were 39th in the nation when I look at adjusted yards per attempt last year So and then you know what is really keeping that program together is the defensive side of the ball Dave veranda is I Mean the best defensive coordinator I mean one of the best if not the best defensive quarter in the nation defensive coordinator in the nation He did lose two pretty key players on that team, but gets a lot of his starters back I'm in this stage where I'm just kind of waiting for the the coach Oda to collapse a little bit. So I kind of just don't trust him as a coach clearly a good recruiter clearly a charismatic guy but He's really not a coach and this is not really not a quarterback that I think is is really gonna be testing Alabama and the SEC West So LSU is seventh in this opening rankings your ratings have them third. Yeah, I'm guessing you're putting them closer to their national rankings Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I don't think LSU's so so this is the case where I don't believe the model Okay, a case where I might believe the model a little bit more that might be surprising is Auburn so their ninth In the model their defense was 20th when I look at adjusted yards for play last year They get most of those guys on that side of the ball back They bring all their offensive line back And then just got to figure out who's gonna play the quarterback position, right? No big worries there We talked about this a little bit on the show Monday, right? Yeah that in terms of Whoever starts playing quarterback for them might as well take a Take a flyer on them for the Heisman. So, I mean Auburn is a program where the cupboard is always full there's always talent there and They've been a roller coaster of a program because they can have bad years But there's always the talent for them to really break through night might be too high My model actually had them at fifth last year I didn't know whether to believe that or not turned out that I shouldn't have believed that But like I said again, like it's it's this model You know when this model says a team is going to be good Compared to the national rankings I don't tend to believe that compared to when a team is going to be overrated Okay, the models are really good at picking teams that are going to be overrated I've written a three overrated college football teams. I think for four years Over despionation and so that's 12 teams I think I've you know, I'm gonna count myself as a loss on West Virginia last year because while they had will Greer I was wrong about them being overrated. I think they were 16th or 17th but I haven't been wrong about any of those other 11 and Texas I think counts as one of those teams that your model not as into as the rankings their ninth right now I figured I'd throw that out there while I had those rankings up there Let's talk to you about though the Big 10 because it's a it's a conference where there may be some Ambiguity this year Ohio State lost to an hacket Haskins They're still favored to win the Big 10 at Fandals sports book obviously still hyper on the quarterback position there But they're plus 110 Michigan plus 250, but they're also plus 280 to make the playoffs So even though Michigan is not favored to win the Big 10 There is still a lot of optimism around that team entering this year Where does your model view? Michigan and Ohio State relative to each other right now Yeah, so so Ohio State is seventh and Michigan is eighth Ohio State is better by about a point in my numbers But that also means Michigan would be favored at the Big House Right now if with what we know from these programs You know looking at what those odds are on the sports book. I think the odds should be a lot closer Than what you have right now You know, let's talk about Ohio State first I'm still a little befuddled why they chose Ryan Day to be the coach when you're Ohio State He's kind of an unproven guy. He's had a lot of coordinator positions Never been a head coach anywhere and when you're Ohio State Do you have to take a risk like that? I mean USC took a risk like that with Clay Heldt in a couple years ago And I'm shocked that that didn't end last year You know, there's a lot of belief that Ryan Day is a better coach than that He's obviously working with a lot coming off the Urban Meyer You know taking the baton from Urban Meyer He did land Justin Fields as a quarterback super highly touted guy entering a second year was at Georgia last year and So the one thing you know and Ohio State also has a lot of questions, right? They lost four out of five guys on the offensive line and And their defense was for Ohio State standards terrible last year and You know programs like Minnesota were running all over them. So so there's a lot of questions there I think they're you know, wait, I think they have way more questions than they've had over the last couple years I'm Michigan. I live here in Ann Arbor. So Follow this team pretty closely. Just want to get that out there. So They're definitely definitely have my perspective on this But I mean the one thing I want, you know, the defense has been good over the last couple years The offense is a is a question mark and not necessarily a question mark But they did hire a new coordinator and Josh Gattis. It's supposed to be more up-tempo Harboss kind of taking a backseat with the offense, but I didn't want to tell one story with Michigan, you know, I actually was walking into the spring game this year talking to some friends And I said that one of my concerns about this team was the offensive line So two years ago, the offensive line was dreadful a big part of Michigan having a you know, the war season under Harbaugh They came back last year and and they were definitely better But when I was looking at some of the numbers that I have in terms of past protection So when I look at past rate adjust for strength to schedule, you know, they weren't great They were like middle of the big 10 Nothing elite and so that's why I kind of said that you know, it was a concern of mine but they do bring four or five starters back and then I found out that like all four of those starters made it an all big 10 team So that's a piece of information, you know I tell this story just because like, you know, none of us are perfect and I'm certainly not and like I'm a Piece of information like that is really valuable because you know The people who vote for that thing watch the offensive line like more than I do and even though I saw every single game a piece of information that makes me a lot more Confident that Michigan's offensive line is going to be good this year Then then I originally thought and you know, we're all in this information business We're just trying to make the best decisions on what information we can get and that was an important one for me. So That being said, I think it's going to be very tight between Ohio State and Michigan I believe what my numbers are saying there and we'll see how their season progresses So very tight between those two teams, especially given the ambiguity around Ohio State But the betting odds not as tight, which I think presents shows you that Ohio State probably not a team that we want to bank on given how Enthusied the the sportsbook still are about them coming into this year given the ambiguity around that team Sock with the Pac-12 here and that seems pretty wide open Utah and Washington co-favorites at plus 250 But there are five teams in total in this conference that are eight to one or shorter So do you have a favorite to emerge from the Pac-12 for this year at and you know from a betting perspective? Yeah, I mean, there's a couple comments on the odds here. I'm a little surprised that Oregon isn't one of the top odds I think they're gonna be the highest Pac-12 team in the human polls They have Justin Herbert coming back who might be the number one pick in the NFL draft My model doesn't necessarily agree with that given their performance over the last four years but that that I thought was super interesting and then you know what I'll do respect to Utah and Washington, you don't really want to forget about Washington State Mike Leach is kind of hitting his stride there at that program. They were they were the North Champs last year and So Yeah, so I don't think we should forget about Washington State at eight to one there. They're gonna bring another quarterback in Grad transfer to run the show there A lot of skill players are back. They have some issues With with losses on the defensive side of the ball, but then again, I'm not really sure that any program in the Pac-12 has a really good defense so Washington's Washington State at eight to one is a very interesting Odds out there and I think that what's fun about them is that they run their offense optimally Like I think that like just watching them play is someone who likes analytics They're very aesthetically pleasing and they make me quite happy I think that that does matter from a betting perspective to have some way a team that runs things in an optimal manner Yeah, no, absolutely. And I mean, it's certainly Yeah, no for sure It certainly affects who I like to bet on and what I like to reform So Washington State eight to one right now standing on the Pac-12. Let's move here to the big 12 Oklahoma minus 125 to win the big 12 even though Kyler Murray is not there obviously, you know, Jalen Hurst is is no slouch But definitely change a quarterback You've already mentioned that you don't like Texas and their second in odds at plus 250 So given the lack of enthusiasm around Texas that your model has and the fact that they are second behind Oklahoma Are you betting Oklahoma minus 125 staying away from this conference? You know, what's your read on the big 12 right now? Yeah, you know, I mean, I think I'm staying away from those top two teams There's a lot of issues with Oklahoma. I I talked Monday about how much I like Jalen Hurst's The past offense at Alabama was really good the last year that he was a full-time starter there I think that was 2017. I think he's talented as both a runner and a thrower. I think he's very underrated as a thrower but Oklahoma's defense was terrible last year Oklahoma lost a lot on the offensive line again something something that I mentioned one day and You have to ask like how easy did that offensive line make life for Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray the last two years? I think it made it very easy So we'll see how they adjust to that. What are they gonna do on the defensive side of the ball? I mean there they were they were not good on that side of the ball. They bring in Alex Grinch Who was at Ohio State? did not have a fantastic year at Ohio State, but in I think it was 2017 He was at Washington State and they had the 16th ranked defense by my adjusted yards per play and That's a minor biblical miracle at Washington State So we'll see if you can replicate that At Oklahoma, but a lot of concerns there. I've already I think I've already gone on my diet tribe about Texas they I Think, you know, it's Texas is a big brand name program. Yeah, there is probably some reasonable Hype Surrounding the quarterback Sam Elger. I'm not an Elger fan. I think he's got limited upside In that he really couldn't beat out Champuchel for the job two years ago. He was good last year, but Didn't really shock the world and they just got gutted on defense Just a ton of production gone on that side of the ball So again a team I'm not high on so let's talk here about Jalen Hurts actually because I think it's interesting that you bring Him up because you go back to the last year He was a starter was 2017 and you know from like a film perspective Maybe he wasn't that great as a quarterback But he did do well with good assets around him He had a 9.3 adjusted yards per attempt, which is a very much a good number 17 touchdowns one pick Obviously wasn't asked to do a ton, but he's going to have You know a lot of productive players around him again And I think that's seeing him do well In a situation where he has talent around him makes me feel better about him in a situation where he'll have talent again CD lamb is among the most talented receivers in the league They did lose Marquis Brown, but CD lamb is still there Grant Calcotera Is a bigger dude who could definitely help out as well. So yes Hurts's numbers were probably inflated by talent around him specifically Calvin Ridley, but He's gonna have talent around him this year too. And I think that people maybe are Holding that too much against him, even though his actual quote-unquote situation should still be positive for next year as well I think that's that's one thing worth knowing at Jalen Hurts. Yeah, absolutely. I agree. I mean Again, the only thing I'm concerned about is the offensive line there Yeah, because I mean they were they were able to blow some holes open last year with the run game as well Yeah, um Drew Samia is a bad dude and so is Cody Foster and losing those guys will not help But you know, and I think that I as someone who values offensive line. I think it is a valid concern Because those are very talented players But you know with Jalen Hurts He can be a good quarterback and the other teams that you think could provide some value this year based on What your rankings say right now at the power rank Yeah, I mean, I know the teams that I want to highlight right now I just just want to bring out the point that this is a regression model So it's going to be way better at picking off overrated teams and things like the human polls Um, and it's going to be good at picking up teams that might not be as terrible as you think Um, so that really is the the key for for looking at Those set of numbers and then also jim. I do want to mention like I'll be having another set of college football numbers Okay, um in the nfl I I take wind totals and I back out a rating for all 32 nfl teams Over the course of the next couple of weeks. I'll be doing that for college football as well provides an alternative perspective It'll be a set of rankings that texas fans won't throw out immediately It'll be a set of rankings that Nebraska fans are much uh more It'll be much more to their liking as well. So, um, and you know, what I do at the power rank is I consider both of them in predicting Especially point spreads for a week one and more information is not a bad thing And I know that you do for your college bat for your college basketball rankings You do factor in What voters say because voters tend to have a good grasp of talent So I think that that's interesting to note. Looking forward to hearing that net. Thanks for giving us a little dive into What the power rank says I appreciate the knowledge Yeah, my pleasure always fun to talk college football or anything with you jim Really? Covering the future Let's finish things up here with covering the future We take a look at some future bets that we like based on what our numbers are saying And we're gonna stick with college football here because after all it is college football week on covering the spread And one of the teams we intentionally did not discuss During that covering the present section was Iowa State And this is a team that Edward E. Gross pointed out as a team that he likes for this year Did lose David Montgomery and Hakeem Butler, but they've got a lot of talent returning What do your numbers say about Iowa State for 2019? Yeah Iowa State's a team that my numbers really like. Uh, when you look at my team rankings, they're 14th Um, they are a step ahead of anyone else in the big 12 I mean, there's they're behind Oklahoma, but they're a step ahead of anyone else And I think I saw eight to one today at the Fandals sports book. I had it written down They're eight to one now. Yep Um Yeah, that that those are some pretty good odds for for what the numbers think are probably the second best team um when you look at uh, last year when you look at uh, uh adjusted yards per play and you look at teams um Ranked them as teams in the big 12, you know, they were ahead of a team like texas even last year Even though the record didn't indicate that And then when you consider what those yards per play numbers included Uh, not all of those offensive numbers were with Brock Purdy So when he came in the last part of the year, uh, the numbers got even better for them So I think there's a lot of value in Iowa State. Um in in the conference futures right there I'll have some more precise numbers, uh in the the next coming weeks But right now looking at it like eight to one you have to like what Matt Campbell is doing Both sides of the ball there and a lot of I think the future is bright for that program And Matt Campbell got NFL buzz at the end of last year and decided to come back Which I think is always a positive for a team looking forward for them And the thing that I like about Iowa State is you mentioned Brock Purdy I think that's the number one thing for me as someone who I think that like if I were to Grade myself in terms of evaluation I feel most comfortable in evaluating quarterback play and having a quarterback who was so young last year Coming back and being the full-time starter again. I feel very good about Iowa State there But also defensively like they were really good And being a strong defensive team in that conference when you have a quality quarterback I think gives your team a lot of positive upside. They ranked 28th in defensive s and p plus over at football outsiders. They were 25th against the pass and That's a very valuable asset to have when you're going up against the offenses that are in the big 12 And a lot of other teams in the big 12 Lost quality players. We saw West Virginia. They lost will Greer We saw Oklahoma lose Kyler Murray and marquise brown and That leaves open the door for a team like Iowa State to make a big jump So, you know when when edward mentioned it on monday that he was into Iowa State My I immediately perked up because they're a team that I liked a lot last year A lot of what they did and they've shown the pass. They're not afraid of oklahoma They will go toe-to-toe with that team and I think that that makes me intrigued by Iowa State too at eight to one I think that you're totally you're totally on the right page there Yeah Thanks. Appreciate that There's a lot of talent coming back on that defensive side of the ball too. So with that and you got the quarterback position Taking care of that. That's definitely something to look into and I'll be interested to see how those odds change As we get towards late august I would not be surprised that they change once we see what Brock Purdy can do without hikim butler I think that they could move quickly. So I think if you want to get in on Iowa State now It's probably an advantageous time to do so my covering the future for this week We're talking a little NASCAR because we're you know, I want to try to talk about road courses Because road courses in my eyes are the best places to bet NASCAR So I'm not going to talk NASCAR all that much But I think that if you're going to bet NASCAR do it at a road course because odds are going to be Softer than they should be on guys and the reason that they tend to be softer than they should be at road courses Specifically is that odds makers do value The I think that they overvalue I'd say what drivers have done at road courses in the past and I think that that's advantageous for this week for two drivers specifically and Kyle Larson and Eric Jones and Odds are not out as of right now because we're recording this a bit earlier in the week But I think that they're two guys to monitor. I'll give my thoughts on where their odds should be If it comes out that their odds are longer than that you should bet those guys because again They tend to overvalue performance on road courses and neither Larson nor Jones will pop there because if you look at Numbers on road courses since start of 2017 Those two guys have combined to just have one top five at road courses in that time And that is a time that Jones has been in the cup series but both have very good current form and current form matters Even at road courses because last year chase Elliott had never finished better than fourth at a road course entering Watkins Glen But he had led a bunch of laps the previous two weeks had a fourth place average running position in both New Hampshire and Pocono and then he won out in one Watkins Glen I think that Larson and Jones the two guys who fit that mold for this week Larson Based on my model should be the fifth overall driver entering this weekend My model does combine both track history and current form. He has top fives and the Three top fives in the past five races. He had a tenth place average running position in Watkins Glen last year He finished tenth at Sonoma this year and now He's 37 points ahead of the cut line for the playoffs, which means he doesn't have to worry as much about stage points He's not worrying as much about trying to make the playoffs He can kind of gun for that win better than he could over the past couple of races Larson tends to qualify well at road courses He has qualified sixth or better in four star races at Watkins Glen He's won the poll three straight years in Sonoma and he's likely to qualify well Which can often lead to good finishes because that that clean air is a big positive to hat. So I'm guessing that Larson's odds at close will be better than they are at open So I try to get on Larson before qualifying on I believe it's on saturday Eric Jones ranks seventh in my model straight up, but I think that that my model We were talking about understanding the limitations of your model I think my model will underrate Eric Jones Because he's a bit volatile and volatility is not bad If you can hit the high end of that volatility and Jones has done so he has Four top tens and six career races at road courses He was tenth and fifth and his two races at Watkins Glen and that's paired with elite current form He has finished in the top three in three straight races He has had a seventh place average running position in both of the past two and The Jones team was a team previously that should have been prioritizing stage points But they weren't and I think that says to me that now that they're in a better position for the playoffs They're not going to care about that. They're going to gun for that win and makes me like Jones even more I think that right now if you look at where they are in my model Larson should be around 12 to 1 to win Jones should be around 15 to 1 and I don't think they'll be anywhere near that short If you look at them last week Larson opened at 20 to 1 Jones opened at 25 and I've got them at much shorter than those odds right now And now is it a track that was not a road course? Where again, I think that they're going to be underrated because they have not popped at road courses in the past So I think if they wind up being super short, obviously disregard this but based on betting Or based on odds trends and based on the way that sports books tend to operate when it comes to road courses I don't think that'll happen. So I would check out Kyle Larson Check out Eric Jones see where their odds are and if they're you know, 20 to 1 or longer I think that's where you start to buy into these guys and buy into elite current four Watkins glenn one of my favorite places to watch a nascar race as well So looking forward to this weekend. Make sure you check out fangirl sports book once those odds go up ed That's all we got for this week. So anything pop it over at the power rank. We need to know before next monday Yeah, absolutely. I had my favorite guest ever on the football analytics show. His name is jim sonnis We talked about nfl offensive lines gave a lot of insight on many different teams and A pretty awesome quarterback prediction that i'm excited to see how that turns out for this year So if you follow your twitter, you can probably figure out who that quarterback is i'll say that But yeah had jim on the podcast it was so much fun and you guys should all go check that out get his backstory And uh, yeah, we'll a little bit about the future of what we expect to do on the show as well And where can people find your podcast? Uh, I mean, I think pretty much everywhere podcasts are available. I mean you can always go to the power rank dot com Um, they're posted there apple podcasts. I know it's available on spotify and i'm pretty sure I mean, I know it's available on stitcher. I listen on spotify. So I can confirm that it is there Uh, thank you for having me on it was a lot of fun. Uh, you can follow ed on twitter at the power rank I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast quick reminder once again to subscribe Rate and review the podcast especially on apple podcast. It's a huge help to us over there And when you do subscribe it'll also get you those podcasts right as they're posted Which is a huge help especially with things that may be more timely as with the nascar odds for this weekend at walk In glenn so heavily recommend that you subscribe rate and review the podcast wherever you listen to your podcasts That's all we got for this week college football week was a lot of fun We're talking plenty more college football as august rolls along though. Thank you to ed for joining me Thanks for cow for producing covering the spread as well. We'll talk to you again next week This has been covering the spread you're on the fan dual podcast network