 The title of it which is the new energy architecture. I think it's a grand title, not only in name but also in complexity of it. But we are lucky that we have a great panel today and I'm sure that we can handle not draw the whole plan of the new architecture of the future energy or energy security, but at least hint on the ways on the problems first and then also on the ways of resolving these issues and how it will like in 20, 30 years time. It's my pleasure to introduce our panel and our panel is we have Atul Arya, who is the head of research of IHS, Sarah from United States. We have Mr. Boiko is the minister of energy and coal industry of Ukraine. We have Lady Barbara Judge, chairperson emeritus of United Kingdom Atomic Energy Agency for authority. Then we have Andreas Noun, who is CEO of Repower or Repower from Germany and a renewable energy company. And where it's announced, we were supposed to have Mr. Trikov, it's in the program but he's not here, who is the minister from Bulgaria. And we have here Mr. Jumkila, who is the director general of UNIDO. Before asking our panelists to make their contribution, I would like to make a small introduction. And I started saying that it's a very ambitious title because if you look at the current, if I look at the current energy architecture and I think about it as a city, the city that comes to me is a sort of a city somewhere in Asia and a very old city like Calcutta or Bombay, which has grown fast effectively the last several years. So it's a combination of poor areas, middle class, sometimes no communications, no connections, but the city with a lot of wealth, new energy coming. So it's a big mixture. That's the way I see the modern architecture of energy today. What is that I personally would hope to see as an energy architecture for the future in the future? When I was walking today after the rain in Vienna, I thought basically maybe this is what we would like to have for future energy architecture. A beautifully designed city where everything is balanced. The green parks with the beautiful buildings, there is electricity hitting everything. Sometimes they'll be missing something like air conditioning in this whole, but that's okay. So the ideal that we would like to get there in energy architecture is something like beautiful Vienna. But of course it's complex and complicated. Why? Because it's complex, it's speedy, and the changes are speedy and we are heading a lot of challenges. And these challenges are multi-dimensional. First of all, if I look at, let me just give a couple of these dimensions. The first one is the nature of the challenge. First of all, energy is not, we're not just speaking about just energy security or energy challenge. Energy is very, very closely related to environment or climate change. It's very strongly connected with food and water. So whenever we are speaking about energy, we have to take into account, we're speaking about all of these issues. And at least where I haven't seen recently a very good research, and maybe this is for you, Mr. Arya, a proper sort of a comparison based on the dollar or on calorie of a connection between energy, water production and food. A gram of a food or a gram of a water connected with energy and CO2 consumption. Now of course, the second dimension will be political. Anything that we're doing in energy sector is either political or politicized. We don't have the European common energy policy. Anything happens between Ukraine and Russia in gas supply is highly politicized. In many places, we'd love to see more international law and order. There are more than 100 institutions, international organizations that are working with this or that aspect of energy, but we don't have one grand organization where everybody comes together and basically faces the difficulties and tries to find the balance between renewal, coal, climate, food and water, anything. So we are missing a big one, although we have more than 100. The third one probably I would say about infrastructure. Third dimensions of complexity is infrastructure. Infrastructure at the end of the day is not only pipelines. There are success stories in Europe, in Eurasia, North Stream, could be seen as a success, although it made unhappy initially a couple of countries. We still have the issue of how to supply with what, which sort of pipeline the south of Europe. Is it going to be South Stream, Nabucco or any other that the region is and where the energy is going to come from? Which part of Caspian? Infrastructure is also electricity greed is becoming smarter and smarter and becoming more complicated and more dangerous, because the more smarter it is, the more it is vulnerable to a cyber crime. So with electricity smart grease we're going to inherit all time, we have to resolve the issue related to cyber. Of course another fourth dimension would be the financial. Are our tariffs right? Do we have common tariffs between countries and where do we get the investment to build? And how do we encourage renewable energy? The fifth dimension will be, I'll call it the rise of China. This is a challenge for specifically Eurasia, because one of the sources of energy for Europe is going, is concentrated in the air around Caspian, Central Asia. And in the meantime there was a success which is called Bakutbilisi Jehan, but if Europe will continue being a bit slow and slow, then there is the rising star of China and the Chinese are very effective and very quick in that area. So there'll be more and more pipelines running from Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan or the Caspian towards the east. So I think there is the dimension of China here. And of course there's another sixth dimension of complexity which I will call here probably new discoveries. Be that new discoveries like the shell gas in Europe which has changed completely and we are talking about energy security in Europe differently today than three years ago or four years ago, or the rise of LNG or indeed the new types of renewables. Seventh, I think I will stop there. I will call it the balanced portfolio. I think everybody wants to have a balanced portfolio starting having of course a clean coal going into oil products because we need in transportation. The gas is rising. Are we going to keep nuclear or not? This is one important question and where and how the renewables will grow. So with this, of course, seven is not the final number. They are more complex dimensions but I will stop there and I will ask my first question to Lady Barbara and this is of course ask her to make her presentation. Of course I do understand that it's going to be around nuclear. Right, absolutely. Thank you very much Armin and brilliant as always. If you were here at the opening session this morning you would think that nuclear was dead. Certainly if you listened to the heads of the Austrian government who were glad to tell us that they'd banned nuclear a long time ago and frankly if you looked at what happened in Germany you would wonder about Mrs. Merkel and whether or not she had how she had changed her mind in such a short period of time and frankly there are other countries in Europe that are not going to do nuclear now that were but for Fukushima. Fukushima has to some degree changed the game but if you think about what the three questions are with respect to energy all energy energy security do we have enough energy energy independence where is it can it get to us without crossing a lot of national boundaries where we may or may not have pipelines or peace and climate change do we want to wreck the environment for our children and our grandchildren the only one kind of energy that ticks all those boxes at a base load kind of energy is actually nuclear do we have enough you build a nuclear plant you build it as big as you need it do is it energy independence where is it you build it in your country and climate change we all know that nuclear doesn't emit carbon so why weren't we building nuclear all this time well we were originally as you remember then we had Chernobyl I'm going to go quickly because we have a short time and Three Mile Island Chernobyl was an old technology badly maintained with the the apparatus being pushed by the operators Three Mile Island wasn't a failure it was a success actually nobody died nobody was even hurt it was just if you remember Jane Fonda and that movie that lovely movie The China Syndrome which you told us that we were going to have a nuclear accident and six weeks later we did and now we have Fukushima which is a big industrial accident and so if you think about what what's happened and look at Europe you will say Fukushima is the third strike Austria Germany Italy Sweden Switzerland numbers of countries that didn't want nuclear in the first place in the rebirth are probably going to pull back as a result of Fukushima but if you this conference this conference is Europe and Central Asia and Asia and the developing world if you look at Turkey if you look at the former Soviet Union countries if you look at Poland if you look at China if you look at India if you look at in Europe at Finland or France or the UK you will see that many countries are in fact continuing on their nuclear program so what is it what's going to happen well what's going to happen is that companies and countries and governments are going to have to look carefully about the nuclear plants that they intend to build but build them they still will they'll have to look at the policies and practices around nuclear but they'll still build them and quickly because I always say that when you think about nuclear the policies mostly all begin with P just by chance so first of all nuclear is a political issue Armin said that the Austrian said that this morning Mrs Merkel certainly showed us somebody once said it's a sovereign issue but you have to have the government behind you if you're going to build a nuclear power plant the next one is planning where are you going to put the plant well we learn from Fukushima that placing the plant in the right place all these P's is very important and we also hear that not in my backyard nobody wants to live near a power plant that's wrong most people who understand the power plant want it when they can have it in the UK right after Fukushima right after it the population around the place where we were going to build a new power plant voted 65 percent in favor of having the power plant near them because they know it's big infrastructure projects brings jobs brings money but P is planning the next one is price nuclear is expensive to build a big infrastructure project but once you have it it's base load generation it goes all the time it's not like renewables sun and wind which is top up and it's at a relatively moderate cost once you build the power plant they say nuclear is cost effective when oil is about $60 a barrel and nobody really thinks oil is going to be less than $60 a barrel for any sustained period of time the next P is people there is a skill shortage we have to train more engineers who know how to run plants we train a lot of engineers but then they go get MBAs and they become financial engineers and actually we need more engineers who will build things build bridges build tunnels build plants people there's the press that's another P we have to be transparent if we don't explain to the press what's going on and that was part of Fukushima the press was going every day about what was going on there frankly if you don't get the press on your side it's not it's not going to be happening and then there's one more issue there are numbers of other issues but there's one more issue that I don't have a P for and if anybody could give me one I'd be delighted which is waste a big W because there is the waste issue and we have to deal with the waste now in fact the world is mostly determined that the way to deal with the waste is called deep geological storage you build a big road the fins are doing it you build a big road down into the center of the earth you build a cavern sorry you place the rods in you close up the cavern and it's good for more than a thousand years now actually they say a thousand years is not very long but if you remember the Hong Kong experience of giving back China to Hong Kong to China that was 99 years and I was there at the time and I said why are you guys giving back China I thought you were giving back Hong Kong to China I thought you won the war and they said Barbara 99 years from the people in the late 1800s was the equivalent of forever so we're saying now a thousand years is a long time so what am I going to say basically Fukushima was important there'll be a big tension another big P is permissions regulation there'll be a big tension about making sure the regulator isn't too close to the operator and there's a competitive tension there'll be a big focus on the safety features of the new technology but those countries that were going to build nuclear power plants and had the government behind them are continuing to build them I'm not saying this is a silver bullet we need everything we need nuclear we need coal we need oil we need gas we certainly need renewables if we're going to go from six million to nine million people it's not a zero sum game we need a bouquet of energy sources but I'm just saying I don't think we can count nuclear out thank you well thank you very much Barbara I think from your presentation it appears that after an unfortunate tragedy in Japan the world from the point of view of nuclear has become much more sort of a clearer and polarized there are those who will not accept at least in the near future because of public opinion because of green movement and then philosophy behind that there are those who will you who were and will continue doing like France and other countries but there are also interesting special cases for me there are two countries that are special interests one of them is Kazakhstan maybe we'll come to that later and the other one is is where you come from which is UK I think UK has around 19 nuclear power plants but it's it's the country that has lost one of your peas which is people you don't have universities or engineers who are trained so what's going to be the future you are the person that is the best position to answer that question the UK you're exactly right Armin the UK was where we nuclear started some 60 years ago the first power plants were started in the UK and then in America and over the years because of Chernobyl because of because of Three Mile Island and just because of the low price of oil the UK essentially lost its technology and then to be fair we sold Westinghouse to the Japanese just at the moment of the nuclear renaissance which some of us thought wasn't exactly the best policy for our government to do but now we're trying to get the people back we are actually putting in shares of nuclear energy getting our universities trained up getting our people trained up and even now after Fukushima we're going full speed ahead on building our power plant we did send our head regulator over to Fukushima to write a report on the lessons learned and we will learn all the lessons but we believe that we that nuclear is very important to our energy mix we have to say that a lot of our power plant is going to be built by the French I mean the French EDF has spent so much money buying British energy from us that they are going to come over with their technology and it's a point of national pride for them to build our power plant using our people well thank you Barbara I think you said about selling Westinghouse to Japanese in fact you also sold 10 percent to to Kazakhs a regional power of energy and with this I would like to come to another very important country for the whole of Eurasia an important country for for Europe in many aspects specifically on energy and that country is Ukraine and I would like to ask minister Boyko to make his first remarks and then we'll go ahead minister thank you mr chairman you know I was sitting listening that I think last year energy sector was the most dynamic changes demonstrated dynamic changes than even any other industry in the world when we remember that was half a year ago I think from that time our energy map was changed fully in the all in all the world I named only three things which was changed the world in energy sector last year first it was technical revolution in America about shale gas which was changed gas map of the world and bring new new routes new possibilities to great number of countries second we came to the grid to the second decade of 20th century with fully unpractitable situation with oil prices and as it was before I think that the main danger of economical crisis depends of unpractibility in oil sector because today only 12 percent of oil is selling and purchasing as oil as natural project 70 80 80 8 percent is only papers and this financial speculation process brought very great danger to all the countries who is depends from oil sector and second and the third one is what was mentioned but my colleague it was situation with nuclear but because before Fukushima I was quite sure and main number of political experts was quite sure that future of mankind is fully depends from nuclear sector because growing markets of India growing markets of China without nuclear energy will not improve in a good way and today it was half year ago only half year ago today all the mankind I think must sink it over and make policy common policy for improving energy sector because every country have his own national strategy of improving energy sector using their national interest according to my country it's growing to it's improving gas sector it's reconstruction our transportation system because 80 percent of Russian gas is coming to Europe using our tubes and in the next month we begin the most big reconstruction works about our transportation system it's very important for Europe it's very important for Russians for us for all who connected with gas sector and we must think of a new policy in nuclear sector because we also have 15 nuclear plants and we shall consider new policy in this sector according Fukushima situation we put new process big money in this sector and sink it over in order to avoid situation what's what's happened to our regular in Japan and last thing I want I want I can mention that you know I think all the mankind changed and it's necessary to European Union especially to make to have common policy in energy sector because it's very it's became situations when common policy of European Union consider Nabucca as priority and several countries from the same European Union consider South Stream for example as priority and it will be one day when it they must make a choice what is the priority what will they will build Nabucca or South Stream because all of them came in one market that's why I think that it's our common house and it's need to very careful attention and very very good considering with all the players in this market thank you well thank you minister I think you ended speaking about South Stream and Nabucco I don't remember years ago when they're the first pipeline from Baku going to Jehan was on on its way to be made it was huge issue political a lot of politicians didn't believe that it's going to happen it was needed a strong political financial and I mean human resource to make it happen this year at Davos I had this discussion with president alia from Azerbaijan and he was just saying me simple truth that basically today we don't care which pipeline because whoever builds first will benefit taking the the gas or the oil from the region from the point of view of Europe it's better the more pipelines the better the higher the security of supply to the region but at the end of the day this is one way of securing Europe's energy sector the other way is looking at new resources and Ukraine has just found shell gas and that's I think exciting first of all it will make Ukraine from energy point of view much more self-sufficient than secure but also it's one of the first countries that will start exercising so my question is to you have you already started giving licenses to that what's the plan you know we we considered very carefully what was happened in America and what is the experience of Americans in this technical revolution and I think that what is doing now in Europe we're passing this way only quicker than it was in America it takes them 20 years to bring these projects but for us it's I think it will be for five seven years and we already yes yes we already began this process we gave first licenses we prepare auctions and several American companies already signed agreements with our national companies in order to improve in order to begin this work and we are going to provide conference about shell gas with our colleagues from care from Sierra agency in November in order to show the perspective not only in our country but also in whole Europe we consider that shell gas is I mentioned that it was technical revolution was fully changed gas map all over the world and I think that we shall pass this way quicker we shall pass it for five seven years as I mentioned and we our government our president showed us that it must be done very quick according to pipelines which is several project is building now and going to build now from caspian region I think what is important for Europe not only have new route of gas but have diversification of resource base and that's why when it is considered a situation in the book or South Stream for Europe it's I think it's must be clear that Nabucca it's new resource base but South Stream is the same base as it was today and that's why our position is to propose to our Russian partner because today we have very good very pragmatic and very effective connections with our Russian partners to invite them to reconstruction process as it is doing European Union of our system and to make it more effective more reliable that what we are doing for engineers next month thank you minister we spoke about gas and and oil and gas gas mostly but your title says that you you are minister of energy and coal industry which specifically emphasizes the importance of coal for Ukraine that brings me to a question about climate change and environmental issues especially when you are speaking about also shell gas is it going to be an issue for Ukraine the development of the shell from the point of view of environmental concerns I understand that you invited me to a clean clean coal technology which is very good produced in Europe and just now is bringing from Europe to China you know we are we consider it experiencing to be considered that only burning coal without new technologies is not effective in any case not economically not ecologically and every every station every equipment which was building now in our country is building is going to build only using new technologies in this era and especially I consider city consider example of shale refinery in Maastricht as example what must be done in a situation of saving climate climate changes and and meanwhile using coal as an effective and good energy resource we go using this way well thank you and I come to Andreas I think we had the portfolio where you had the energy we spoke a little bit about gas and coal now is the time for you know renewables good news you are running one of the most successful companies tell us what's good yeah the first I would like to say thank you that's my first world economic forum and I'm delighted to be here and the title of this this first or the session is energy architecture and architecture things like there's some some architects on planner behind it and now if I just look back at my my career which was partly in fossil I worked two years in the UK and I was in the midst of building combined cycle power stations when we got effects from Tony Blair saying no more combined cycles gases off for two years so at that time and it's not architect it's not planned and now we have of course the opposite what happens at the moment in Germany which is clearly something that should probably be done in several years now gets done in weeks and I know it's not to to the liking of everyone but why don't we use this now as an opportunity to put it on new feed on some sustainable feet and just say what are the demands that we would like for a real energy architecture to have in the future and here lady Barbara I just take your your criteria which coincide of course not by chance because is there enough and here I can can then make the case for wind as as one one renewable energy source thus in most countries of the world and there's enough wind to generate at least 20 30 in some cases 50 percent of the energy that you need from wind so the the natural resources are there abundant then climate change I don't think there's too much to explain around the advantages of wind power if you just look at the co2 that is needed to produce a wind turbine it's co2 neutral after three months so the the energy that you put in you get out after three months and then it's about 20 years that you you'd benefit from it and if you then look at the economics of wind turbines and I think there was a chart earlier here as a slide that shows that wind wind offshore wind onshore is pretty close to being economic if not already if you would count would would calculate all the environmental cost that you have with other generation sources into it you get at least very close and if you choose the right side and I can give you example of sites where the where you harvest about 50 if not 60 percent of the energy from from a proper site selection so there's also the economics of wind are improving and if I just look back let's say wind industry it's a relatively young industry we one of the subtitles innovation the turbines that we build now are 100 times larger than they've been 20 years ago from about 50 kilowatts to five gigawatts and I'm sure they grow to a 20 so in terms of innovation speed that's also something where there's quite an achievement and so the last one and that of course is energy independence is the wind always blowing when you need it but there we come back to the energy architecture of course if you think in little islands then it doesn't it is probably sometimes not working as you wanted but if you were to create a real architecture around it with grids that work across the countries then I think wind can also despite of these natural disadvantages that renewables generally have if you compensate it planet properly I think that it can have a major share and and to really be a major part of the future energy architecture well thank you Andres I think I have a question to you at the end of the day the wind how do you see it in the future is it going to stay on shore or it's going to become more and more offshore that's one question the second whenever you drive somewhere in Europe or elsewhere and you see this big things which are not the best beauties in the world in in mixed with the natural nature I think the question arises here is it really completely neutral to the nature or this big basically wings at the end of the disturb something on the ground that's the second question and I have a third one maybe later okay now maybe I'll start with the with the visual impact of course first beauty is always in the eye of the one who looks at it I'm sure you view of it as totally different than mine so oh yes so first clearly very subjective thing but I think that the the effects of wind turbines now beyond the pure visual impact have been studied now quite a long time what are the the effects on nature on birds and if you go offshore on the the fish population and so on that has been all studied very well and the the the the negative effects are clearly very very minor compared to if you see what other damages we do to the nature and what when you then say when you drive through these wind farms what I dislike most of course if one or two stands still because that proves to me the wind is blowing otherwise the others wouldn't work and again it shows that the technology that we put in is the key thing we need to make sure that when it's it's time to harvest that then we do a maximum maximum job and there this whole innovation comes in what a company like ours repower or other companies have to put in get the most out of it and and contribute and then sorry the first question on shore offshore so the split and onshore and offshore I think it will be as the overall picture it will be a mix I don't think we should over do at the moment the strife for offshore offshore is a very young industry still and we've been doing it now for seven years other companies for 10 years but not longer so we still are in the learning phase and a thousand megawatt last year I'm sure the coal or the nuclear people think yeah that can be done in one place in one one go but on the other hand there is quite a contribution that offshore can do and we are in a very fast learning curve next year it will learning curve next year it might be two and a half thousand megawatts it will then go to five thousand every year but nevertheless I think there will be also a major share for onshore and we should not forget if we want to have also an economical mix onshore is faster simpler cheaper so it should be a nice balance and I expect that that will be a mixed portfolio in each and every country well thank you very much and you intrigued with your remark about sort of importance to other regions or global effects a question in my mind that I do have the feeling that at the end of the day although the title of our conference here is about the forum is about Europe and Central Asia but we cannot avoid at the end of the day the fact that if we take energy energy security energy energy architecture in many cases the solutions are local but the impact is always global and I think the balanced future energy architecture must be in a form that the solution which is local and it's a good one is good as well for the global solution I think that city beautiful architecture doesn't disturb the whole architecture of the planet that brings me to two questions that I'm going to ask our next two panelists one question about is about experience for example in in let's say Latin America with a biodiesel for a country like Brazil or Argentina the biodiesel issue looks very a sort of a nice and beautiful because here we are we are producing sort of a crops from which we are getting some sort of energy or sugar and we are producing diesel from the point of view of global energy balance or global food water and energy balance it has a lot of question marks are we all happy that that agricultural land is used and the water which is going into that is used in order to produce biodiesel which is eventually burned instead of producing food and keeping the water for the for the poor of this world and the second question is again it's all about Europe and Central Asia but the world is also consists of many other regions that there are regions which are still poor and living in a different world of energy security than we in Europe or maybe in Eurasia and with this I would like to give the floor with these two questions to Secretary General. Thank you very much I think that the new energy architecture indeed should be looked at from a global perspective and it must be inclusive in this 21st century we still have one third of mankind not connected to electricity we still have over two billion using biomass so whatever architecture we design for Central Asia or Europe it has to be inclusive we cannot leave one third of mankind underdeveloped not connected to electricity and therefore not enjoying the prosperity of globalization for pure security reasons we will not be safe you the demographics dictates that these regions in Africa in Asia will have huge populations they cannot live in darkness so I don't believe that the architecture can ever be entirely local the R&D the innovation might be local but for those of us at the higher level we must be looking global second point I want to make is to to madam judge the same three Ps that you want for nuclear apply the same three Ps to alternative energy if alternative energy had the same planning the same subsidies and pricing and perhaps capacity building perhaps we'll be looking at a different energy mix so I think in this new architecture I think that Fukushima should be looked at as the spotnik moment for energy to rethink models to have parity in pricing to have adequate costing of the externalities so in as much as one would want to defend energy independence and security but maybe it's an opportunity to step back to say how do we make parity and give the same support to alternatives the third point that I would make our agenda globally indeed is for energy access can we connect the 1.5 billion people who are not connected to the to electricity so that yes they can have food security so that the economies can grow and in fact we create new growth areas so the issue you raised about global governance on energy is important so I hope that in this discussion as we look at the technologies in Europe that in fact we don't forget that there's the rest of the world the last comment I'll make your point about China I think China is a positive thanks to China we see what has happened to solar PV we see what is happening to wind just last week China announced that in Africa for example they will put out a hundred million dollars now to establish in 40 African countries solar power generating plants to create new markets that's the model we're looking for in the 21st century an inclusive growth strategy that brings others in again independence I think it's an illusion your discussion here is about partnerships and pipelines is that independence that means we better have better relations but at the same time companies in the north are heading for the Gulf of Guinea to source good sweet Nigerian oil crude I mean these people also need access to energy which means the geopolitics of energy must change it must also address energy poverty in the poorer country so I think that we should broaden the dialogue because energy indeed apart from the climate change linkage touches these other issues that will affect global security well does that mean that we can add to the sort of a small portfolio of general human rights also the right of access to energy well what we have proposed last year and we are going to be proposing now is that in fact last year we should have been bold in New York heads of states and others should have been bold and say look energy access is the missing millennium development goals there is no way you can achieve any of those millennium development goals without access to energy in fact if you take women the people who suffer the most because of lack of energy access are the women in poor countries they collect the firewood they collect the water they inhale the smoke what we propose now and which the secretary general will be coming up with soon we're proposing three global goals that we want to take to Rio universal access to energy by 2030 40% reduction in energy intensity and 30% of global energy mix from renewables we call it a 30 30 goal all as a package even poor countries need to save on energy as the rich countries do so if you look at that as a package this is universal access but on a sustainable trajectory well thank you very much you also mentioned the energy governance here and in my initial remarks I also mentioned that I think it's an important issue but here we are facing a sort of a general human problem because as we know there are around hundred organizations all around and each of them has a specific agenda it represents specific group and so on and so forth you are related to united nations and how do you see is there a chance that eventually we can overcome our weakness put aside our sort of a corporate or sort of a regional or nationalist national interest and come up with something which is the global platform where we discuss energy food water and so I begin to see a shift four years ago if you had asked me I'll say they will never discuss energy issues in New York because you're right the moment you say energy it's about the politics of oil and gas supply we shifted the debate to focus on energy for sustainable development and I can tell you last December the general assembly took a decision which for us was a litmus test for you to declare 2012 the year for access to sustainable energy for all supported by the European Union and G77 India Brazil everybody so the idea of energy access seems to be gaining ground but it is true we still don't have a low a low cost where you discuss energy issues the world economic forum your global reengineering initiative in fact has called for global dialogue regular global dialogue on energy issues I would strongly call for that I think you should keep hammering on that because I see a lot happening on security geopolitics and the link between water security energy security and food security that we need a place where we discuss energy for development not just the politics of energy given the demographics given climate change but it's been convenient for all that you separate it into different entities don't even have one agency dealing with it because it becomes too hot I think again Fukushima says change the way you think well thank you very much I told now we come to you of course I would like to hear your your initial remarks but also if you can just comment what you heard you are coming for a sort of a center what that does the analysis of energy worldwide and we have the representatives from different sectors different parts of the world if you can make your initial remarks and also some analyze a little bit what you heard today thank you very much I'll try my very best to do the on the spot commentary as they say I think one of the things to begin this dialogue is I think everybody has already touched on it is to think about the need and clean architecture is first of all unrealistic and probably unlikely one of the things we know about energy is that energy business and also the minister referred to it is really driven by events events really change the direction of this industry more than many other industries and that's happened if you just look at last 12 months or last five years and that's going to continue to happen in the future so particularly when you're in Vienna and you're walking down the street after a nice rainstorm and as you said enjoy the buildings you think about all the all the design and all the framework which went into you know into this city I think is kind of very difficult to do that for energy however we shouldn't despair because there are certain principles we can use this is the way we think about how you know the future energy system I think one of the key words which everybody has referred to is the system maybe not using that word but really referring to the impact of energy on food and water and environment and I would also like to add land which is becoming scarcer and a lot of energy future energy we are going to get is becoming more and more land intensive we need more land for the same amount of energy than we did say even 10 20 years ago because of the new forms of energy so that's we have to start thinking about energy in a more systems way the second thing I would say is that we need to think about two very simple parameters and continue to work them one is the energy intensity of our economy how much energy we need to per unit of GDP and I think if you look at Europe and Central Asia obviously there is a big difference Europe particularly Western Europe has done much better than Eastern Europe and Central Asia and they're within this this group of countries there is great opportunity for cooperation and partnership to improve the energy intensity and then once you can get that you know going in the right direction the second thing is carbon intensity of energy ultimately we want lower and lower carbon sources it's unlikely that in our lifetime most of the people here we will be completely decarbonized meaning zero carbon based energy but there is a lot there is a there are many options let's put it you know and we heard about some of them nuclear all renewable options particularly wind and solar they're all part of the mix so when I think about energy mix I think about like a kid going to the candy store and saying I want one of everything and that's what we need we need to have we need one of everything now depends upon how much you want is a function of where you are in the world if you are in Brazil maybe there is an opportunity for using biomass there is plenty of that if you are in Middle East there is of course a lot of oil and gas but there is also a lot of sun so there is an opportunity for that so it has to be thinking globally but acting locally is sort of a old cliche we have to do that let me offer and closing a couple of thoughts on specifically you know what I would I would think as we look about of Europe and Central Asia what are some of the real opportunities and I can't resist talking about shale gas or unconventional gas more broadly because unconventional gas though it may seem like it has been a revolution but it has been an evolution even in the United States it's taken 20 years of hard work particularly for people like George Mitchell who was a pioneer in in development of the technology everybody doubted him but he continued on with his engineers and preferred the technology it took him 10 15 years really even to get to the basics of it and the last five years I've just seen a boom now the real value here is technology can be then used across the world and that's the real value of the shale and unconventional gas technology and Europe particularly Eastern Europe has a great opportunity in Ukraine and in Poland and other places to really exploit that develop the resource space there are many challenges no doubt but there is great opportunity one other area which I think is right for innovation is storage in the long run if you want the world to be decarbonized we will need storage solutions and Europe in particular needs to be thinking and I think the World Economic Forum can help with this is to think about how can we create more innovation in the field of storage there was mention of coal and I can't resist mentioning carbon capture and sequestration which seems like a technology which is ready for the prime time but not yet you know it's one of those things we have talked about every every five years it gets delayed by five years and I think it's about time that we think about innovative ways to really do a large scale experiment I mean really large scale experiment many companies are investing in small things but it's time to scale it up and then finally your question about biofuels and you mentioned biodiesel I think when we look at any source of energy whether it's nuclear or wind or solar or biofuels one of the things we need to look at is unintended consequences of things we put into motion those of you who live in the U.S. may remember about 10 years back there was this all the talk about the hydrogen economy we were on the hydrogen highway you know it kind of became highway to nowhere I mean still work is going on but this would be has been put further back then bio biofuels were kind of the the best thing ever and now the latest thing is of course electric cars the best thing ever and this is really very dangerous because what it leads to is disappointment at the end of the day raising expectations which are completely unrealistic and then disappointment so coming quickly to biofuels then our our view is that there is huge potential if you talk to the biotechnology they say if you look at the book of biotechnology we are probably on and if it has 10 chapters we're probably on chapter five in terms of drug discovery we are on page one paragraph one in terms of application of biology to to energy so there is massive scope and we should really be thinking about things like waste material biomass not food crops not not corn or or sugar cane I'm sure working slightly better than corn but but still there is a lot more there are a lot more opportunities and what we consider second and third generation biofuels will ultimately be a solution and particularly things like palm oil we should really not be not be using that there is really no no economic benefit no environmental benefit and it has a negative energy balance the three E's we should be looking at when we look at energy options so it makes no sense to go go for palm oil I'll stop there well thank you at will I think I would like also to hear your comment on something that is becoming very very predominant at least today a couple of years ago the generally public started speaking about nuclear renaissance until the Japanese tragedy I think the renaissance continues now it's just quiet renaissance just hidden renaissance but the the other renaissance that we see today is the gas renaissance definitely I think if we go back again four or five years ago I think we were all counting how much gas is there do we have enough how how Europe is going to supply it okay the north is fine at the end of how the south is going to be supplied but what has happened during the several years have been accumulating gradually and have come to a critical mass of the gas renaissance which is the development of the LNG as a technology and basically south of Europe has a proper supply via through the LNG from the from the Gulf now this year a lot of tankers have crossed the come to to the Mediterranean supplying south of Europe with an LNG solution and of course the shell gas is another sort so it looks like it's the time that will price the gas not connected to oil and gas will become a real commodity so what are your thoughts and I would like to also ask Yuri about your thoughts about gas renaissance and the place of you Ukraine there please I think one of the really interesting technological evolution has been how much gas we have now I mean we're awash in gas not just unconventional but but also conventional gas through you know and that's being monetized through LNG and and we see we don't see a gas becoming completely globally connected like oil is one single price a price based on on grade but we see it becoming much more interconnected you know there is last week or a week before last a first permit was issued to a U.S. company to do LNG export from U.S. to Far East to Asia Pacific you know five years back we were building LNG terminals to import gas so you can see how quickly events can change this so we see it becoming much more interconnected much more price discovery so that there is better pricing around the world which actually in a way at the end of the day will you know will be beneficial to the consumers because they will see lower prices because of much more interconnected thank you what we are waiting today we are waiting for new technical revolution and it was connected with LNG routes we are waiting that LNG terminals will go away and they will came new plans which will not be connected with LNG terminal and will be such just like a flowing gas tubes and we expected that in I think it's maybe our colleague will correct me in the three five years we shall receive new technologies in LNG which will allow us to receive without such complicated infrastructure and it will be new technology we are waiting for it I just to add to what minister is saying we are we are starting to see what we call floating regasification facilities which will be smaller in size but the real advantage is you know they are much more scalable in the sense you can move them around and you don't need to be a massive LNG plant and we're already starting to see companies trying to perfect their technology and it's it's going to even make the market even more you know connected well thank you very much I think we have some time it will be my pleasure to to address my question to to the audience do you have questions I think we'll be very happy to ask the panel to answer your questions where yes please your name please my name is Nadia Han I'm a reporter for Austrian public radio my question is to the Ukrainian minister you said Europe had to choose between Nabucco and South Stream why do we have to choose either or can't it be both did I misunderstand you there you know that Nabucco pipeline is coming to European market in the place nearby three years nearby Italy in the same place it's coming South Stream and it was as they both came to the same market and that's why it must be a choice from Europe what resource they will receive in this market from Nabucco or from South Stream because they came in the same point fine any other questions well I do want the highest place I'm Jochen and Russia mainly from Germany how large is the shale gas potential of Poland and Ukraine if it is as large as what was discovered in America then all of the European power game may be over because the prime minister of Russia had written his thesis on the new power because the oil and gas Russia has if Poland and Ukraine really has lots of shale gas it become fully independent from Russia all of a sudden now what I hear is that the Polish and Ukrainian reserves are not of the same quality as the American reserves are much more difficult to reach can you give me as much as possible information what you think is available in Poland and Ukraine thank you oh well I think the ideologics of our amounts of gas is the first time that the total recoverable reserves in in Europe that is not just Poland and Ukraine but all of Europe are smaller than than North America which is US and Canada that's you know they're smaller the potential of how much of those reserves or potential resource base if we should say really gets exploited as a function of many factors so for us to sit here and say it's going to be X or Y today when very little development has taken place is premature there is potential to if you look at the current total production in Europe not not from Russia but in Europe the the unconventional gas potential is equal or larger than in terms of productive capacity but it will take time to realize that and remember that in the US shale gas is not one single you know based in there are many many different qualities and what is being learned there I think the real trick would be how quickly you can transfer the technology which is really being experimented in North America US and Canada into into Europe and if we look at the learning curve so far in the very short period of time I would be pretty optimistic there's a lot of innovation going on in this industry particularly in the US I add about our country because I don't know close situation in Poland but according to our country we have first results about coalback methane and about shale gas in western Ukraine which give us a very optimistic prognosis because the technologies which were proposed by American companies who make it produced it in in their country shows and geological investigations shows us great potential but can critical numbers it will be possible to say about them in the middle of the next year thank you thank you yes please my name is Jürgen Wilder I'm the CEO of the M&W group I think Mr. Ayum you made a very important statement that our energy policy and our energy development is very often driven by events how can we bring some predictability and long-term view into that game knowing that energy infrastructure needs a lot of investment and we need a longer focus than one event to the other event and coming out of that trap yeah maybe I'll give it a try because I currently live in a country where it's done I think way better and not event-driven I live in Denmark a country that has now 20% renewables share and this is not by accident it's because they started in the 80s to think about it and it's not by chance that most of the of the wind turbine companies that you currently find in the world let it be Vestas let it be Nordics or so were once founded in Denmark because they started in the 80s when they decided not to go nuclear that they then said okay we have to find an alternative way and of course I know it's a relatively small country but if they have now the foresight to say it's 20 percent now we want to go to 30 and they do all the intermediate steps that are needed and also plan now for 50 percent maybe one can learn from this it's only a five million country but they did it in a very structured way they have very stable of course infrastructure and just by taking the time and maybe the the current example of Germany is just the opposite what you would like to have but here I'm more with with my colleague here to the left side why can't we take this as an opportunity now and say let's get away from this event-driven because the next election is around the corner and what do we really want why can't we take this as the ignition to a new energy age rather than now hecticly see how much wind power do we need to replace the current nuclear power stations and how many grid lines do we need to build from south and from north to south quickly this is again the short-sighted let's fix something and in five years we'll stand here and say oh we did wrong again let's take this as now as an opportunity to do it properly and I hope that at least a country that is also my home country maybe my second home country now thinks a little bit more ahead and for me that's why I welcome the recommendation from your global re-engineering initiative let's begin to have a regular open dialogue it's not a negotiation and this is a good forum technologies financing companies policy makers to have an open dialogue on energy regularly then wait for the events when the event happens we have summits political decisions are taken and then it becomes politicized so I think that you should keep hammering on this need for a regular dialogue you know I mentioned before what I'll make an example what what event and how it can it can influence to oil prices for example because oil prices is the most unpredictable and transparent situation in all the world because of financial speculation and it's a problem which must be decided sooner or later because it's a real danger for all the countries and for all the economics in future because what what is the connections for example between oil prices and something happened in for example in terminal somewhere in Algeria or somewhere else and what is the role of a pack today in stabilization process and the process which mentioned my colleagues to make a clear and transparent situation because every good have his price except oil and I think that all the world sooner or later must decide the question with financial speculations with all prices in the world thank you well thank you very much my name is George but I'm working with ABB and we have been speaking about every single fuel here and every single source of energy with the exception of one and that's energy efficiency and energy saving which we like to believe is the biggest one and with the energy technologies that we have on shelf that need not to be dreamt up but that are there huge savings can be made and not only we our competitors as well so I just wanted to underline we should focus much of our discussion much more on energy saving energy efficiency and the more you go from west to east the more intensive energy intensive the economies are and the more saving can be done even under the actual prices most of these technologies are viable and our have payback times that are interesting should be interesting for every single player and obviously the higher the prices for energy go and for carbon the more interesting it should be and I think this is worth underlining and being discussed well thank you very much for your comment I think it's very important one because at the end of the day this is the harmonizing factor that will work when we will design the next beautiful city it energy efficiency I think though is architectural efficiency is the one that makes Vienna so beautiful and I think lady judge would like to add something I just wanted to underline that because we're working on that at UCL we have the energy institute think about energy we've all been saying is energy is a political issue even energy efficiency is a political issue we need to change the building regulations in the UK we realized that if we could change the building regulations so that all new buildings would be built in a green and environmentally friendly way if we could probably get 10% energy savings just by changing the building regulations if we teach children to take the plugs out of the walls when they're not using their computers or turn off the television so the red light doesn't stand on or close the fridge we figure we could have 5% energy saving just by teaching people from the beginning that energy costs money we ourselves have it in our power to teach people that are around us to save energy as well as to get our governments whether they want to have nuclear or not whether they want to have shale gas or not they all want to save energy so it's all of us that are necessary to get our governments to put in the regulations that will help our population to save the energy that's so valuable well thank you very much at all yeah I just want to add one other point which is around innovation we had a session this morning about innovation and what blocks innovation at the end of the day in order to meet the demands make sure every person in the world has access to energy it's going to be innovation and when I look at around the world I have to say the United States in spite of all its faults still remains the leader in innovation including energy innovation we're just talking about shale gas and here is the opportunity for Europe and Central Asia to step up and really create much more innovation I think Germany perhaps may be an exception to that but there are you know it's a big continent here and it's kind of time to get ready for the prime time and with five minutes left I think I would like to go back to the discussion that we started to make a small comment because we spoke about we spoke about Russia and Russia as as a source of energy as a source of supply and we we didn't speak much about the about security of not only the supply but also the demand we spoke about Denmark here as well we didn't speak about many many issues we didn't speak about huge reserves that are in the Arctic area which is basically a party of Eurasia as well we didn't speak about about further in depth about nuclear for example we did we spoke we have a star in Europe which is France but there is a rising star of nuclear in Eurasia which is Kazakhstan that became the first country number one now in producing uranium and it has a policy of doing exchange there's a rising star in Eurasia in gas which is Ukraine my final question and I would like to ask you to do your to do your own final comments is there is very often asked the question so do we have to worry about the future because we're speaking about future energy architecture it's not only about the energy it's about generally there are natural resources about minerals about energy about water and all of natural resources what is that we have to be we have to be concerned about is it the scarcity of natural resources or scarcity of our common sense and good management that we are not basically managing what we have well including for example energy efficiency and that is what why that we're not getting there where we want to be so in the future energy architecture I think this concept of where we have to focus on the scarcity of this of the source or do we have to focus to manage much better what we have this is a final question that I would like to ask all of you so I started with Barbara well I think you've said a lot of it right there I think there is there's enough oil in the world there's enough gas in the world there's enough there's enough wind and sun and we can build enough nuclear what we have to do is think about what the mix ought to be optimally what the mix mix ought to be and as I said I think energy is a political issue we have to get our governments to focus if Denmark did it right by thinking in long term I think that's they've done a good job if Germany maybe did it wrong by changing their mind overnight I think the most important thing is see what we have country by country and become more interdependent we said that over over on the other side Europe Asia we're all one world we ought to take our resources we ought to take our pipelines we ought to think about our storage and make energy an issue that's an international rather than a national issue because I think that's exactly right we have to every person in the world has the right to energy this inclusive energy is very important but if we make it a national and competitive issue we won't have a long-term view energy should be one of the clearest global issues around and then we can harness the resources of the world and make sure that everyone gets their fair share thank you Barbara Andreas yeah I have a little task for when you go home because we are talking about the this balance and also Armin talked about the beauty of of power of wind power when you go home when you start in Vienna you will you will pass by the first combined cycle power stations the first coal fired power stations and we all get into the planes I'm sure you'll also see a nuclear power station when you fly over some you will for sure see wind farms hopefully all running and because all this what we discussed now is not only politics in the end it's people like you like us who decide who are who have emotions and opinions and Fukushima and so on you have the great chance when you go home look at all of them and what do you think about it because that will partly beyond all the science and economics that you have influence what will get done and then when you arrive home make your little judgment and we'll see what you come back with next year maybe it's not so scientific but at least um something thank you please as we promote the agenda for universal energy access we have built in energy efficiency so I fully agree with you we must look at energy efficiency we must also look at resource efficiency our ecosystems cannot carry on with the current production systems so equity resource efficiency will be will be crucial we ask you the business community to join the sector generalist campaign which we will launch soon on energy access efficiency and renewables we're taking this political agenda to Rio plus 20 will be including CEOs from major companies and at this stage all energy sources are on the table so I fully agree with our colleague here we must push for decarbonization reality is it will take time so carbon capture and storage other technologies are relevant and finally inclusiveness this is a world where we are all together when there's conflict in North Africa people move to Europe so let's not have energy security in Europe and have all the gas pipelines coming to Europe you better have some down south so people can stay there and have prosperity too thank you I would agree with Lady Judge that we have no shortage of resources they are not distributed where people are so that's that's the challenge we face the other big challenge we face is today we're emitting close to eight tons of CO2 per person on on this planet to get to the decarbonization the goals you talked about we need to be somewhere between two and three by 2050 that's the challenge we face I think the hope I have is when I talk to my children and the young people they are a lot more smart people going into energy and not into investment banking and that's our big hope with my apologies to investment bankers and thank you you know I think it future energy policy I think it must be solution because between politicals and economical realities because I'm agree with Barbara that politicals must play first role I remember the words which was say uh last the chief of action mobile who said that we technicals find shale gas and after that you politicals find the price for this and I think that you know that energy resources is political resources only 20 percent of energy resources is on a free market are they 80 percent under the control of governments or companies who in their place them controlled by governments so I think that it must be solution between political decisions based on economical realities and what would save my colleagues from other countries and every country must have his own national policy but in common it must be organized by politicals according to to opinions that energy security is one of the main securities in the world thank you well thank you very much minister I think I'm not going to conclude because this is not something concluding if I would start concluding then I have to sketch the plan of the city the next architecture of the energy the next architect energy city what we have done here I think and we are I'm pleased with that that we had addressed a lot of issues you know it's energy future energy energy security is so wide so it covers so many issues so we addressed a lot of them basically what we have achieved I think today because we ended up somehow naturally with a sort of a positive note so the result is I would say is a nice watercolor sketch of the future energy architecture it's not a plan it's not a detailed plan but at least it's a optimistic beautiful watercolor state painting so with that I would like to thank our panel for engagement and honest discussion and I would like to also thank the audience for patience and wish you a good evening thank you